INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Mathematics in Daily Life

Some shopping centers invite customers to try their luck by joining
lucky draw or playing a spinner after buying certain amounts of products.
Customers will win the prize that the pointer points to after the spinner
stops spinning. It is a matter of luck and chance called probability. We can
use numbers (called probability) to show how likely a customer is to win a
particular prize.

Introduction to Probability
In our daily lives, we often guess whether a situation will happen or not. We forecast the chance of the
occurrence of an event. In mathematics, an event is a situation that may happen. We can study the following
examples of events.

From the above sentences, we recognize that the terms certain, very likely, unlikely and impossible
can be used to state how likely an event will happen. However, these terms cannot tell the extent of certainty.
In mathematics, we use a number, which is known as the probability, to measure how likely it is that an
event will occur. The larger the number is, the greater is the chance of an event occurring. Each result of the

event that is likely to happen, is called a possible outcome. For example, there are 2 possible outcomes of
tossing a fair coin once: a head and a tail.

Probability of an Event
The probability of an event is the chance of the occurrence of that event. We define the probability of an
event as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes of the event to the total number of possible outcomes.
The probability of an event E is denoted by P(E).

PE

Number of favorable outcomes of an event E

Number of possible outcomes

Example 1:

A letter is selected randomly from the word PROBABILITY. Find the probability of getting
(a) a vowel,
(b) a B or a T

Solution:

(a)

There are 4 vowels in the word: 1 O, 1 A and 2 Is

4
P(getting a vowel) =
11
(There are 11 letters in the word PROBABILITY).

(b)

There are 2 Bs and 1 T in the word.

3
P(getting a B or T) =
11

Example 2:

A box contains 2 red balls and 4 yellow balls. If a ball is randomly

chosen from the box, find the probability that
(a) it is a red ball,
(b) it is a yellow ball,
(c) it is a black ball,
(d) it is a colored ball.

Solution:

(a)

P(getting a red ball) =

2
24
(Number of red balls)
(Total number of balls = Number of red balls + Number of yellow balls)

2
1
=
6
3
4
2
P(getting a yellow ball) =
=
6
3
0
P(getting a black ball) = = 0
6
24 6
P(getting a colored ball) =
= =1
6
6
=

(b)
(c)
(d)

Exercises
1.

There are 4 options for a multiple-choice question and only one of them is correct. If a student guesses the
answer randomly, find the probability of getting
(a) the correct answer
(b) a wrong answer

2.

A letter is selected randomly from the word UNKNOWN. Find the probability of getting
(a) a vowel
(b) a N or a K

3.

An integer is selected at random from 14 to 25 inclusively. Find the probability of getting an odd number.
Find the probability of getting an odd number.

4.

There are 4 $1-coins and 5 $2-coins in rosas purse. If she draws a coin from her at random, find the
probability that it is a
(a) $1-coin
(b) $ 2-coin
(c) $5-coin

5.

There are 20 novels and 12 comics on a bookshelf. Tony chooses a book

from the bookshelf at random. Find the probability of choosing
(a) a novel
(b) a comic
(c) a comic or a novel

6.

A fair die is thrown. Find the probability of getting

(a) an odd number
(b) a number smaller than 3
(c) a number greater than 6

7.

John forgets the last digit of toms telephone number. If john randomly dials a number for the last digit,
what is the probability that he can actually call tom?

8.

If a student is chosen from a school at random, find the probability that the student was born
(a) in November
(b) on Tuesday

Answer:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

1
3
(b)
4
4
2
4
(a)
(b)
7
7
1
2
4
5
(a)
(b)
9
9
5
3
(a) (b) (c) 1
8
8
1
1
(a)
(b) (c) 0
2
3
1
10
1
1
(a)
(b)
12
7
(a)

Methods for Listing Possible Outcomes

According to the method learn in the previous, we need to know the total number of all the possible
outcomes before calculating the probability of an event. When the situation is complicated, we have to use some
methods for listing all the possible outcomes to avoid missing or repeating data.
Tree Diagram

A restaurant offers three types of set dinners: beef, pork and mutton, and each meat dish can be combined with
either vegetable soup, cream soup or onion soup.
If we want to list out all the possible combinations systematically, we can use symbols, single words or
letters to represent a selection. For example, we use A, B and C respectively to stand for beef, pork and mutton;
X, Y and Z respectively to stand for vegetable soup, cream soup and onion soup. Finally, the following tree
diagram can be drawn.
Set Dinner
Soup
Combination
A
X -------------------------------------- AX
Y -------------------------------------- AY
Z -------------------------------------- AZ
B

X -------------------------------------Y -------------------------------------Z --------------------------------------

BX
BY
BZ

X -------------------------------------Y -------------------------------------Z -------------------------------------From the tree diagram above, we can see that there are 9 possible combinations.

CX
CY
CZ

Example 1
Sophie has bought two VCD movies and two DVD movies. She chooses two of them randomly and lends
them to William. Find the probability of each of the following events.
a. William has borrowed to DVDs
b. William has borrowed one VCD and one DVD.
Solution:
Let V1, V2 stand for the two VCDs and D1, D2 stand for the two DVDs. The tree diagram below shows all
the possible outcomes of borrowing two discs from Sophie:
1st Disc
2nd Disc
Outcome
V1
V2 -------------------------------------- V1V2
D1 -------------------------------------- V1D1
D2 -------------------------------------- V1D2
V2

V1 -------------------------------------D1 -------------------------------------D2 --------------------------------------

V2V1
V2D1
V2D2

D1

V1 -------------------------------------V2 -------------------------------------D2 --------------------------------------

D1V1
D1V2
D1D2

D2

V1 -------------------------------------V2 -------------------------------------D1 --------------------------------------

D2V1
D2V2
D2D1

Two number of possible outcomes = 12

a. Number of favorable outcomes = 12 (The favorable outcomes are D1D2 and D2D1)3
2
1
P(two DVDs) =
=
12
6
b. Number of favorable outcomes = 8 (The favorable outcomes are V 1D1, V1D2, V2D1, V2D2, D1V1, D1V2,
D2V1, D2V2)
8
2
P(one VCD and one DVD) =
=
12
3
Tabulation
Referring to Example 1 on the previous page, if Sophie has bought one more DVD movie, then the total number
of possible outcomes for William borrowing 2 discs will increase greatly, and a tree diagram will become
complicated. Under this situation, it may be better to use a table to list out all possible outcomes.

1st Disc

2nd Disc
V1
V2
D1
D2
D3

V1
X
V2V1
D1V1
D2V1
D3V1

V2
V1V2
X
D1V2
D2V2
D2V2

D1
V1D1
V2D1
X
D2D1
D3D1

D2
V1D2
V2D2
D1D2
X
D3D2

D3
V1D3
V2D3
D1D3
D2D3
X

Table 1
Using the above table, we have
2
1
P(two VCDs) =
=
,
20 10
12
3
P(only one DVD) =
= .
20
5
Example 2
Two fair dice are thrown. Find the probability of each of the following events.
a. The numbers on both dice are prime numbers.
b. The sum of the numbers on the two dice is 8.
c. At least one dice shows up a 3.
Solution:
NO. ON THE 1ST
DICE

No. on the 2nd dice

1
2
3
4
5
6

1
1, 1
2, 1
3, 1
4, 1
5, 1
6, 1

2
1, 2
2, 2
3, 2
4, 2
5, 2
6, 2

3
1, 3
2, 3
3, 3
4, 3
5, 3
6, 3

4
1, 4
2, 4
3, 4
4, 4
5, 4
6, 4

5
1, 5
2, 5
3, 5
4, 5
5, 5
6, 5

6
1, 6
2, 6
3, 6
4, 6
5, 6
6, 6

Table 2
Total number of possible outcomes = 6 6 = 36
a. Number of favorable outcomes 9 (The favorable outcomes are (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 5), (5, 2),
(5, 3) and (5, 5))
9
1
P(both prime) =
=
4
36
b. Number of favorable outcomes = 5 (The favorable outcomes are (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3) and (6, 2))
5
P(total is 8) =
36
c. Number of favorable outcomes = 11 (The favorable outcomes are (1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3,
5), (3, 6), (4, 3), (5, 3) and (6, 3))
11
P(at least one dice shows up a 3) =
36

Geometric Probability
In the last section, we have studied the method of counting all the possible outcomes in order to find the
probability of an event.
However, under some situations, it is impossible for us to use the method of counting the outcomes. Let us
consider the following question:
In the figure below. AB is a line segment 5 cm in length. A point X on AB is selected at random, what is the
probability that the length of AX is longer than 3 cm?

B
5 cm
In order to answer this question, we can let C be a point on the line segment AB such that it is 3 cm from A [see
figure below]. To make AX > 3 cm, the position of X must be within CB.
A

5 cm

2 cm

Therefore, P(AX > 3 cm) = P(X is within CB)

Obviously, the probability that X is within a certain part of AB should be proportional to the length of that part,
therefore
lenght of CB 2
P X is within CB

lenght of AB 5
2
P AX 3cm
5
This kind of problems involve calculating probabilities by considering certain measures of geometric figures
such as lengths, areas, volumes, etc. They are related to the concept of geometric probability.
Its basic principle is as follows:
In a geometric figure, if an event E happens in a certain region of the figure, then
measure of the region in which E happens
PE
same measure of the whole figure
Example 3:
In a stall game, a participant has to throw a dart at the circular target as shown in the figure. A big prize will
be awarded if the red bullseye is hit. Teddy participates in the game. He throws a dart at random and it hits
the target. Find the probability that the dart hits the bulls eye.
Solution:

area of bulseye
area of target
52 cm 2

202 cm 2
1

16

P hitting the bullseye

Exercise
1. Janice has 2 children.
a. List all the possible outcomes of gender of the children using a tree diagram.
b. Find the probability that both children are boys.
2. Ken throws 3 fair coins.
a. List all the possible outcomes using a tree diagram.
b. Find the probability that Ken gets at least 1 head.
3. A set lunch includes a soup and a sandwich. The restaurant offers the following choices.

a.
b.

List all the possible set lunches using a tree diagram.

Mrs. Chan randomly orders a set lunch but she dislikes chicken and salmon. Find the probability that
the set lunch ordered suits her friends taste?

4. 2 letters are chosen randomly from the word BOOK.

a. List the possible outcomes using a table.
b. Find the probability that 2 vowels are selected.
5. There are 2 cans of cola and 2 cans of orange juice in a refrigerator. Harry takes 2 cans of drink at random.
a. List the possible outcomes using a table.
b. Find the probability that one of each kind of drink is selected.
6.

The figure shows a dartboard with 16 identical equilateral triangles. Raymond throws a dart at the
dartboard. If the dart hits the orange region, he will win the grand prize. If the dart hits the purple regions,
he will win the 2nd prize. He will not get a prize if he hits the other regions.

a. Find the probability that Raymond wins the second prize.

b. Find the probability that Raymond does not get a prize.
7.

The figure shows the top view of a mango cake with outermost edge decorated with mouse of width 4 cm.
A fly lands on the cake. Find the probability that the fly lands on the mouse.

Solution for Exercises:

1
1. b.
4
2. b.

7
8

3. b.

4
9

4. b.

1
6

5. b.

2
3

3
16
3
b.
4

6. b.

7.

7
16