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Automation in Construction

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/autcon

Evolutionary Fuzzy Support Vector Machines Inference Model

Min-Yuan Cheng a, 1, Jui-Sheng Chou a, 2, Andreas F.V. Roy b,, Yu-Wei Wu a, 3

a

b

Dept. of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology,#43, Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan, ROC

Department of Civil Engineering, Parahyangan Catholic University, Indonesia

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:

Accepted 27 July 2012

Available online 24 August 2012

Keywords:

High performance concrete

Fuzzy logic

Time series

Weighted support vector machines

Fast messy genetic algorithms

a b s t r a c t

The major different between High Performance Concrete (HPC) and conventional concrete is essentially the

use of mineral and chemical admixture. These two admixtures made HPC mechanical behavior act differently

compare to conventional concrete at microstructures level. Certain properties of HPC are not fully understood

since the relationship between ingredients and concrete properties is highly nonlinear. Therefore, predicting

HPC behavior is relatively difcult compared to predicting conventional concrete behavior. This paper proposes an Articial Intelligence hybrid system to predict HPC compressive strength that fuses Fuzzy Logic

(FL), weighted Support Vector Machines (wSVM) and fast messy genetic algorithms (fmGA) into an Evolutionary Fuzzy Support Vector Machine Inference Model for Time Series Data (EFSIMT). Validation results

show that the EFSIMT achieves higher performance in comparison with Support Vector Machines (SVM)

and obtains results comparable with Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPN). Hence, EFSIMT offers strong

potential as a valuable predictive tool for HPC compressive strength.

2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

High-performance concrete (HPC) is a construction material that

has gained in popularity over the last decade due to special characteristics that include high workability, high strength, and high durability [35]. HPC differs from conventional concrete, which is a

mixture of four ingredients, namely Portland cement (PC), water,

ne aggregates and coarse aggregates. HPC employs an additional

two ingredients, namely a mineral admixture (e.g., y ash, blast

furnace slag, silica fume) and a chemical admixture (superplasticizer)

[11]. Therefore, the major difference between HPC and conventional

concrete is essentially the use of mineral and chemical admixtures

[5,29].

Those two admixtures made HPC mechanical behavior acts differently compare to conventional concrete at microstructure level

[2]. The microstructure of HPC is more compact as mineral admixture acts as ne ller and pozzolanic materials. Moreover chemical

Corresponding author at: Jl. Ciumbuleuit 94, Bandung, 40141, West Java, Indonesia.

Tel.: +62 22 2033691; fax: +62 22 2033692.

E-mail addresses: myc@mail.ntust.edu.tw (M.-Y. Cheng), jschou@mail.ntust.edu.tw

(J.-S. Chou), roy_afvr@yahoo.com, andrevan@unpar.ac.id (A.F.V. Roy),

d9305503@mail.ntust.edu.tw (Y.-W. Wu).

1

Tel.: +886 2 27336596; fax: +886 2 27301074.

2

Tel.: +886 2 27376321; fax: +886 2 2737 6606.

3

Tel.: +886 2 2733004; fax: +886 2 27301074.

0926-5805/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2012.07.004

admixture reduces the water content which at the same time reduces level of porosity within the hydrated cement paste [2,29].

Therefore compressive strength of HPC is higher than conventional

concrete since those two admixtures decreased hydrated cement

paste porosity which represents the weakest links in concrete

microstructure.

Predicting HPC behavior is relatively difcult compared to

predicting conventional concrete behavior. Chou et al. [15] stated

that certain properties of HPC are not fully understood since the

relationship between ingredients and concrete properties is highly nonlinear. Therefore, traditional model of concrete properties is

inadequate for analyzing HPC compressive strength. Mix proportion is the process of choosing suitable ingredients of concrete

and determining their relative quantities with the object of producing as economically as possible concrete of certain minimum

properties, such as compressive strength [33]. There are popular

methods of mix proportion of HPC such method proposed by

[1,2,32] among other methods [28]. However, to obtain required

mix proportions of HPC most commonly based on trial mixes as

stated in relevant standards, experience, and rules of thumb approach [3,29].

Compressive strength is a mechanical property critical to measuring HPC quality [4,34]. Twenty-eighth day compressive strength is the

most widely used objective function in the mixture design. However,

as pointed out previously, the result depends on ingredient combinations and proportions, mixing techniques and other factors that must

that the introduction of new ingredients and technologies implies

that the number of parameters for HPC mix design may extend to

10-, 20- or even higher dimensional decision space numbers. Waiting

28 days to get 28-day compression strength is time consuming and

not a common practice in the construction industry. Therefore,

many researchers have worked to establish prediction tools able to

obtain an early determination of compressive strength, ideally well

before concrete is laid down at a construction site. Prediction of concrete compressive strength is one area of active research in the civil

engineering eld, and a considerable number of relevant studies

have been carried out over the past 30 years. Zain and Abd [42]

attempted to categorize methods into three types, i.e., those using

statistical techniques, computational modeling and articial neural

networks. Akkurt et al. [4] also noted the use of fuzzy logic to predict

concrete compressive strength.

Statistical techniques represent a conventional approach, and

are used primarily to predict conventional concrete compressive

strength by establishing linear and nonlinear regression equations.

The approach starts with an analytical equation assumption,

followed by regression analysis that employs limited experimental

data to determine an unknown coefcient. While many regression

models have been suggested, obtaining a suitable regression equation is not an easy task. Moreover in this prediction effort, the early

compressive strength at 6-hour, 1-day and 3-day is usually embodied in a prediction equation that necessitates some time delay in prediction [34]. Furthermore, for HPC, where the number of inuencing

factors is greater than for conventional concrete, this regression

model is neither suitable nor adequate to predict compressive

strength [41].

As traditional methods handle complex non-linear and uncertain materials (like HPC) poorly, many researchers have sought better prediction tools. Many studies have proposed articial neural

networks (ANNs) and ANN variations to map non-linear relationships among factors of inuence on 28-day HPC compressive

strength. Kasperkiewicz et al. [24] proposed an articial neural network of the fuzzy-ARTMAP to predict HPC strength properties. It

was found that concrete property prediction could be effectively

modeled using a neural system without being affected by data complexity, incompleteness, or incoherence. In 1998, Yeh demonstrated

the superiority of ANNs in predicting HPC compressive strength that

produced better results than regression analysis. Yeh also showed

how easily ANNs could adapt to different numerical experiment settings in order to review the effect on the concrete mix of each variable

proportion.

Topu and Saridemir [38] used ANNs and fuzzy logic (FL), separately, to predict 7-, 28- and 90-day compressive strengths in HPC

with both high-lime and low-lime y ash contents. Obtaining prediction result values very close to actual experimental results, Topu

and Saridemir demonstrated neural networks and fuzzy logic as

practicable for use as predictive tools for determining the compressive strength value in y ash concrete. Zarandi et al. [43] fused

fuzzy neural networks (FNNs) and polynomial neural networks

(PNNs) to form fuzzy polynomial neural networks (FPNN) Type 1

and Type 2, which were also employed to predict concrete compressive strength. Using root means square (RMS) and correlation factors

(CFs) as evaluation criteria, FPNN Type-1 delivered better results

than attained by the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system

(ANFIS). Parichatprecha and Nimityongskul [35] developed an ANN

model to determine the inuences of water content in cement, the

water-binder ratio, and the effect of replacing y ash and silica

fume on HPC durability. In this model, ANNs were used to predict

HPC durability, the results of which were then compared against regression equation results. Furthermore, as the neural network is a

black box model, Yeh and Lien [41] proposed genetic operation

tree (GOT) as an alternative model for predicting HPC compressive

107

strength. GOT comprises an operation tree (OT) and genetic algorithm (GA), and automatically produces self-organized formulas to

predict strengths. However, even though GOT obtained results that

were better than non-linear regression formulas, prediction accuracy was inferior to those of ANNs.

The success of ANN and its variants as AI techniques in handling

highly complex materials such as HPC opened the possibilities of

using other AI approaches. The development of new AI techniques

has spurred follow-on research into their adoption and utilization

in the construction industry. For example, SVM, which represents

a new AI technique, has been shown to deliver comparable or

higher performance than traditional learning machines and has

been introduced as a powerful tool to solve classication and regression problems [7,13]. However, SVM presents several inherent

shortcomings. Firstly, SVM is unable to provide high prediction accuracy for either the penalty parameter (C) or kernel parameter settings. Secondly, SVM considers all training data points equally in

order to establish the decision surface. Therefore, Ling and Wang

[30] proposed a modied version of SVM, known as fuzzy SVM

(FSVM) or weighted SVM (wSVM), to weight all training data

points in order to allow different input points to contribute differently to the learning decision surface. Such modication is also suitable when the case problem involves time series prediction

problems, where older training points are associated with lower

weights, so that the effect of older training points is reduced

when the regression function is optimized.

The main purpose of this research study was to predict compressive strength in HPC using an AI hybrid system that fused FL, wSVM

and fast messy genetic algorithms (fmGA) into an evolutionary

fuzzy support vector machine inference model for time series data

(EFSIMT). Within the EFSIMT, FL is used as a fuzzy inference mechanism to handle vagueness and uncertainty due to material characteristics such as HPC ingredient mix, workmanship, site environment

situations, temperature, etc. wSVM handles the complex fuzzy

inputoutput mapping relationship and focuses on time series data

characteristics inherent in HPC experimental datasets as compressive

strength measured at different testing ages. fmGA is deployed as an

optimization tool to handle FL and wSVM search parameters. This

study applied HPC experimental data originally generated by Yeh

[40] and posted to the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository website. To verify and validate the proposed system,

EFSIMT performance was compared against original SVMs and

back-propagation neural network (BPN).

2. Brief introduction to FL, weighted SVMs, time series analysis,

and fmGA

2.1. Fuzzy logic

Fuzzy logic (FL) is a popular AI technique invented by Zadeh in the

1960s that has been used in forecasting, decision making and action

control in environments characterized by uncertainty, vagueness, presumptions and subjectivity [6]. Chan et al. [9] found that, between

1996 and 2005, FL was used by many scholars in construction-related

research, either as single or hybrid techniques that may be categorized

into four different types, namely: decision-making, performance, evaluation/assessment, and modeling. Cases including contractor selection in

multi-criteria environments, sustainable residential building assessments, site layout planning, dynamic resource allocation, procurement

selection modeling, bid/no-bid decision-making, and project selection

are several example applications of FL in construction management

decision-making.

FL consists of four major components, namely fuzzication, rule

base, inference engine and defuzzication. Fuzzication is a process

that uses membership functions (MFs) to convert the value of input

variables into corresponding linguistic variables. The result, which is

108

process based on fuzzy implications and available rules. In the nal

step, the fuzzy set, as the output of the inference process, is converted

into crisp output. This process, which reverses fuzzication, is called

defuzzication [26].

Despite the advantages of FL, the approach has a number of problems, including identifying appropriate MFs and number of rules for

application. This process is subjective in nature and reects the context in which a problem is viewed. The more complex the problem,

the more difcult MF construction and rules become [27]. Some researchers perceive this drawback as an optimization problem because

determining MF congurations and fuzzy rules is complicated and

problem-oriented. Some researchers have worked to overcome

remaining difculties by fusing FL with AI optimization techniques,

such as GA and ant colony [23,31]. These optimization methods

have demonstrated their ability to minimize time-consuming operations as well as the level of human intervention necessary to optimize MFs and fuzzy rules.

2.2. Weighted support vector machines

The term weighted support vector machines (wSVMs) was proposed by Fan and Ramamohanarao [18] as a synonym for Fuzzy Support

Vector Machines (FSVMs) to draw attention to the effective weighting

of fuzzy memberships at each FSVM training point.4 Fan and

Ramamohanarao [18] stated that different input vectors make different

contributions to the learning of decision surface. Thus, the important

issue in training weighted SVMs is how to develop a reliable weighting

model to reect the true noise distribution in the training data. Fan and

Ramamohanarao [18] developed emerging patterns (EPs) to weight the

training data. Lin and Wang [30] developed FSVMs to enhance support

vector machine (SVM) abilities to reduce the effects of outliers and

noise in data points. While SVMs a recent AI paradigm developed by

Vapnik [39] that has been used in a wide range of applications, treat

all training points of a given class uniformly, training points in many

real world applications bear different importance weightings for classication purposes. To solve this problem, Lin and Wang [30] applied a

fuzzy member to each SVM input point, thus allowing different input

points to contribute differently to the learning decision surface. In

such time series prediction problems, older training points are associated

with lower weights, so that the effect of older training points is reduced

when the regression function is optimized.

In sequential learning and inference methods such as time series

problems, where a point from the recent past may be given greater

weight than a point from further in the past, function of time ti can be

selected as the weighted SVM si scheme. Lin and Wang [30] proposed

three time functions, linear, quadratic, and exponential, as shown in

Eqs. (1)(3). Those three time functions were used by Khemchandani

et al. [25] on nancial time series forecasting problems, who demonstrated their abilities to bring about better results than SVM.

si f l t i

1

t t 1

t m

t m t 1 i

t m t 1

t t 2

si f q t i 1 i 1

t m t 1

si f e t i

1

1

:

1 exp 2 tt i t

t

l

user with similar problems. Schlkopf and Smola (2002) expressed

that SVM bandwidth and penalty parameter C, which determines

4

In this paper, to avoid confusion with the FL technique, the term wSVM is used.

the trade-off between margin maximization and violation error minimization, represent an issue that requires attention and handling. Another point of concern is the setting of kernel parameters, such as

gamma (), on the radial basis function, which must also be set properly

to improve prediction accuracy. In addition, using wSVM requires users

to set a further parameter, i.e., weighting data parameter . Therefore,

three different parameters must be optimized, including the penalty parameter (C), kernel parameter (i.e. , if the RBF kernel is employed), and

. To overcome this challenge, an optimization technique (e.g., fmGA)

may be used to identify best parameters simultaneously [13].

2.3. Time series analysis

Time series analysis is a powerful data analysis technique with

two specic goals. The rst goal is to identify a suitable mathematical

model for data, and the second is to forecast future values in a series

based on established patterns and, possibly, other relevant series and/

or factors [16].

Over the past several decades, much has been written in the technical literature about linear prediction in time series analysis, covering such approaches as smoothing methods, the BoxJenkins time

series model and the auto regression model. Accurate and unbiased

estimation of time series data produced by these linear techniques

cannot always be achieved, as real word applications are generally

not amenable to linear prediction techniques [37]. Real world time

series applications are fraught by highly nonlinear, complex, dynamic

and uncertain conditions in the eld. Thus, estimation requires development of a more advanced time series prediction algorithm, such as

that achieved using an AI approach.

Refenes et al. [36] described structural change as a time series data

characteristic that should always be taken into account in all methodological approaches to time-series analysis. In light of this characteristic, Cao et al. [8] expressed that recent data provide more relevant

information than distant data. Consequently, recent data should be

assigned weights relatively greater than weights assigned earlier

data. Cao et al. [8] and Khemchandani et al. [25] adopted this approach effectively by applying AI techniques such as SVMs and

wSVMs in nancial time series forecasting applications.

2.4. Fast messy genetic algorithm

The fast messy genetic algorithm (fmGA) is a genetic algorithmbased optimization tool able to nd optimal solutions to large-scale

permutation problems efciently. Goldberg et al. [21] developed

fmGA as an improvement on messy genetic algorithms (mGAs). Different from simple genetic algorithms (sGAs), which describe possible

solutions using xed length strings, fmGA applies messy chromosomes

to form strings of various lengths [17,19].

A messy chromosome is a collection of messy genes. A messy gene

in fmGA is represented by the paired values allele locus and allele

value. Allele locus indicates gene position and allele value represents

the value of the gene in that position. Consider the two messy chromosomes as follows: chromosome C1: ((1 0) (2 1) (3 1) (1 1)) and

C2: ((3 1) (1 0)) both represent valid strings with lengths of three.

As the above example shows, messy chromosomes may have various

lengths. Moreover, messy chromosomes may be either over-specied

or underspecied in terms of encoding bit-wise strings. Chromosome

C1 is an over-specied string, which has two different values in the gene

1 position. To handle this over-specied chromosome, the string may be

scanned from left to right following the rst-come-rst-served rule.

Thus, C1 represents bit string 011. On the other hand, a competitive

template would be employed to evaluate an underspecied chromosome, such as C2. The competitive template is a problem-specic,

xed-bit string that is either generated randomly or found during the

search process. As shown in Fig. 1, if the competitive template is 111,

C2 represents bit string 011 by assigning corresponding allele values

Bit string

Competitive template:

missing genes.

The fmGA contains two loop types, i.e., inner and outer. The process starts with the outer loop. Firstly, a competitive template, represented by a problem-specic, xed-bit string, is generated randomly

or found during the search process. Each outer loop cycle is one

era, which iterates over the order k of processed building blocks

(BBs). A building block is a set of genes, a subset of strings that are

short, low-order and high-performance.

With the start of each new era, the three-phase operations of the

inner loop, including the initialization phase, the building block ltering (BBF) or primordial phase, and the juxtapositional phase, are invoked. In the initialization phase, an adequately large population

contains all possible BBs of order k. fmGA performs the PCI process

at this stage, which randomly generates n chromosomes and calculates their tness values. There are two operations in the primordial

phase, namely building-block ltering and threshold selection. In

the primordial phase, bad genes that do not belong to BBs are ltered

out, so that, in the end, the resultant population encloses a high proportion of good genes belonging to BBs. In the juxtaposition phase,

operations are more similar to those of sGAs. The selection procedure

for good genes (BBs) is used together with a cut-and-splice operator

to form a high quality generation, which may contain the optimal

solution.

Operations in the next outer loop begin once those in the inner

loop have nished. The competitive template is substituted with the

best solution found so far, which becomes the new competitive template for the next era. The whole process is repeated until the maximum number kmax is reached. The fmGA can also perform over

epochs. This term is used to describe a complete process that starts

from a rst era and continues until kmax. The best solution found in

one complete process is passed to succeeding epochs through the

competitive template. Epochs can be performed as many times as desired. The algorithm is terminated once a good-enough solution is

obtained or no further improvement is made.

3. Evolutionary fuzzy support vector machine inference model for

time series data

Evolutionary fuzzy support vector machine inference model for time

series data (EFSIMT) is a hybrid AI system that fuses three different

AI techniques, namely, FL, wSVM and fmGA. The developed EFSIMT

based on the FL paradigm is a hybrid AI system that allows computer

systems to solve problems intelligently by imitating human reasoning

to recommend decisions with a level of accuracy similar to that attained

by experts. In this complementary system, FL deals with vagueness and

approximate reasoning; wSVMs act as a supervised learning tool to

handle fuzzy inputoutput mapping and focused on time series data

characteristics; and fmGA works to optimize FL and wSVM parameters.

The ability of FL to deal with vagueness and uncertainty depends

heavily on the appropriate distribution of MFs, number of rules and

selection of proper fuzzy set operations. FL parameter construction

is not easy, as they are problem-oriented and rely heavily on expert

knowledge. wSVMs and fmGA were introduced to resolve such issues.

The fuzzy inference engine and fuzzy rules based on the conventional

109

and predictive accuracy of wSVMs are determined by searched problem parameters, including the optimal penalty parameter, kernel parameters and the lower bound of the weighted data parameter. To

overcome this shortcoming, EFSIMT utilizes fmGA to search simultaneously for optimum wSVM and FL parameters. Fig. 2 illustrates the

EFSIMT architecture. Nine steps must be followed to establish the

EFSIMT model, as explained below:

(1) Training data. The EFSIMT uses sequential data as training data.

The appropriate factors need to be indentied rst before input

and output patterns can be collected. Subsequently, these patterns, representing training data, must be normalized to avoid

greater numeric ranges dominating those with smaller numeric ranges and help avoid numerical difculties [22]. As inference results of new problems may be greater or smaller than

desired outputs distributed in input patterns, the normalization

method was revised. Maximum and minimum output parameters were enlarged by 10% [12]. Functions used to normalize

the data are shown in Eqs. (4)(6).

Xn

X a X L

X U X L

X U X max X range =10

X L X min X range =10

where

Xn

Xa

XU

XL

Xmax

Xmin

Xrange

Output parameter before normalization

Upper bound of output parameter

Lower bound of output parameter

maximum of output parameter

minimum of output parameter

Difference between maximum and minimum.

(2) Data weighting. For time series prediction problems, certain data

points are more important to the training process and others are

less important, based on the nearness of their date to the present

and degree of noise corruption. To deal with such issues, the

model applies weight to each input point according to three

types of time functions, as shown in Eqs. (1)(3). In doing so, different input points can make different contributions to the learning of the approximated function, and can improve the SVM in

diminishing the effect of outliers and noisy data. Due to this

weighting process, the last data point xm will be treated as

most important, and thus be assigned an smvalue of 1. The rst

data point x1 will be treated as least important and given a

weighting value equal to . In this step, the value of was generated randomly and encoded by fmGA. In this research, the

LIBSVM developed by Chang and Lin [10] was embedded into

the EFSIMT model.

(3) Fuzzication. In this step, each normalized input attribute is

converted into corresponding membership grades. This mapping

of crisp quantity to fuzzy quantity is carried out by membership

function (MF) sets generated and encoded by fmGA. This study

used trapezoidal MFs and triangular MF shapes (see Fig. 3)

that, in general, may be developed by referencing summit points

and widths [23]. The summit and width representation method

(SWRM) was used in this study to encode complete MF sets

(see Fig. 3(c)) [27]. Fig. 4 illustrates the fuzzication process.

(4) Weighted SVM training model. In this step, wSVMs developed

based on SVMs are deployed to handle fuzzy inputoutput

110

6

fmGA

parameters search

NO

9

SVM

Parameters

MFs

(C, )

1

Training

Data

3

Data

Weighting

Defuzzification

Parameter

Fuzzification

Termination

criteria

Optimal

Prediction

Model

5

weighted SVM

training

model

YES

Fitness

evaluation

Defuzzification

Legend:

Data flow

Control flow

Fig. 2. EFSIMT structure.

into a binary string. Chromosomes consist of two segments, including FL and weighted SVMs. The FL segment contains MF

and dfp substrings. The weighted SVM segment contains penalty

parameters C, kernel parameter from the RBF function and the

lower boundary of weighted data parameter . Fig. 5 illustrates

the chromosome structure.

As mentioned above, MF substrings are encoded using the

SWRM method, which denes the distribution of uneven MFs

using their summits and widths (see Fig. 3(c)). In Fig. 3(a), trapezoidal MF summits are sm1 and sm2, whereas left and right

widths are wd1 and wd2, respectively. A triangular MF may be

regarded as a special trapezoidal MF case, in which sm1 = sm2.

A complete MF set includes two shoulders. Fig 3(c) shows the

complete trapezoidal MF set, consisting of ve summit points

(sm1, sm2, sm3, sm4, sm5) and four widths (wd1, wd2, wd3, wd4).

Applying the SWRM method, the required length of the MF binary substring RLMF may be dened as follows:

mapping. Fuzzication process output, in the form of membership grades, acts as fuzzy input for wSVMs. wSVMs train this

dataset to obtain the prediction model and use penalty (C) and

kernel parameters () that are randomly generated and

encoded by fmGA. This study used the RBF kernel as a reasonable rst choice [22].

(5) Defuzzication. Once the wSVM has nished the training process, output numbers are expressed in terms of fuzzy output,

which must be converted into crisp numbers. Employing

fmGA, the EFSIMT generates a random dfp substring and encodes

it to convert wSVM output. This evolutionary approach is simple

and straightforward, as it uses dfp as a common denominator for

wSVM output.

(6) fmGA parameter search. fmGA was employed to search concurrently for the ttest shapes of MFs, dfp, penalty parameter C, RBF

kernel parameter and the lower boundary of weighted data

parameter . As fmGA works based on the concept of genetic

operations, chromosome design plays a central role in achieving

objectives. The chromosome that represents a possible solution

for searched parameters consists of ve parts, namely the MF

substring, dfp substring, penalty parameter substring, kernel parameter substring and lower bound of weighting data substring.

Every substring has a specic length that should t within certain requirements, which correspond to the searched parameter.

These requirements include length of decimal point string and

upper and lower parameter bounds, among others.

The chromosome, as the model variable in EFSIMT, is encoded

sm1

sm1 = sm2

sm2

rn

cMF

sm

sm

wd

wd

n rl n rl

sets, n sm represents the number of summits in a complete MF

set, rlsm represents the required length for a summit depending

on demand, n wd represents the number of widths in one complete MF set, and rl wd represents the required demanddependent width. Considering that each input variable uses

sm2

sm1

Membership grade

1.0

MF

RL

sm4 sm5

sm3

MF2

MF1

MF3

Degree

value

x1

x2

wd1

x4

x3

x1

wd2

x 2 = x3

wd1

x4

wd2

X lb

wd1

wd2

X ub

wd3

Fig. 3. Membership function: (a) trapezoidal; (b) triangular; (c) complete MF set [27].

wd4

sca

sca

sca

X11

X12

111

sca

X13

...

X1n

...

MFset 1

mg1

x11

mg2

x11

MFset 3

MFset 2

mg3

x11

mg1

x12

mg2

x12

mg3

x12

mg1

x13

mg2

x13

MFset n

mg3

x13

...

mg

, x1n 1 ,

mg2

x1n

mg3

x1n

Legend:

sca

xijmg k

i : number of cases

: membership grade k of

sca

Xij

Fig. 4. Fuzzication process.

carried as follows:

rn

cMF

1

iv

n

(7) Fitness evaluation. Every chromosome that represents MFs,

dfp, C, and is encoded and used to train the dataset.

Model accuracy is obtained when a prediction model of the

training dataset is obtained. Each chromosome is further

evaluated using a tness function.

The tness function was designed to measure model accuracy

and the tness of generalization properties [27]. This function

describes the ttest shape of MFs, optimized dfp number and

weighted SVM parameters. The tness function integrates

model accuracy and model complexity, as expressed in Eq.

(10).

if each input variable uses its individual complete MF set

8

where n iv represents the number of input variables. dfp is a

number searched by fmGA that will convert fuzzy output

from the inference engine into crisp output. The required

length rl x of the dfp binary substring may be dened by

adapting the variable mapping function of Gen and Cheng

[20] from domain [lb x, ub x], as follows:

rlx 1

x

b ub lb

rp

rlx

10 2 1

fi

point, and lb x and ub x represent the lower and upper bound

values of variable x. For the weighted SVM parameter segment

(containing penalty parameter C, gamma and sigma

substrings), the required length of each binary C, and

substring is also computed using Eq. (9). Table 1 summarizes

MF1

MF2

MF3 MFn

dfp

consist of

sm1, sm2,,sm5

10

represents the prediction error between actual output and

desired output, c cw represents the complexity weighting coefcient, and mc represents model complexity, which can be

assessed simply by counting number of support vectors.

(8) Termination criteria. The process is terminated when termination criteria are satised. While still unsatised, the model will

proceed to the next generation. As the EFSIMT uses fmGA, the

termination criterion used here is either number of era (k) or

number of epoch (e). The loop process continues when specied

criteria are not met.

(9) Optimal prediction model. The loop stops once the termination

criterion is fullled, i.e., the prediction model has identied the

input/output mapping relationship incorporating optimal MF,

C, , and dfp parameters.

weighted

SVMs segment

FL segment

1

caw ser ccw mc

wd1,wd2...wd4

Legend:

MFi : membership function i-th

dfp : defuzzification parameter

C : penalty parameter

: RBF kernel parameter

: lower bound of weighting data parameter

smj : summit point j-th of MFi

wdj : width j-th of MFi

Fig. 5. EFSIMT chromosome structure.

Table 1

Summary of EFSIMT parameter settings.

Parameter

Upper bound

Lower bound

Number of bits

MF set

C

Exponential

dfp

200

1

1

20

1

0

0.0001

0.1

0.05

0.5

27a

5

10

10

10

9

112

Table 2

HPC database: input and output variables.

Table 4

Comparison of results among SVMs, BPN and EFSIMT.

Input/output variables

Unit

Minimum

Maximum

Cement

Blast furnace slag

Fly ash

Water

Superplasticizer

Coarse aggregate

Fine aggregate

Age of testing

Concrete compressive strength

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

Day

MPa

102.00

0.00

0.00

121.75

0.00

801.00

594.00

1.00

2.33

540.00

359.40

200.10

247.00

32.20

1145.00

992.60

365.00

82.60

Dataset

Training set

Testing set

Evaluation

performance

measurement

SVMs

r

MAE (MPa)

RMSE (MPa)

R2

r

MAE (MPa)

RMSE (MPa)

R2

0.850

7.122

8.854

0.722

0.867

8.116

10.401

0.752

BPN

0.951

3.869

5.094

0.904

0.935

5.238

6.902

0.873

EFSIMT

Linear

Quadratic

Exponential

0.954

4.184

5.120

0.909

0.957

4.781

5.865

0.916

0.954

4.189

5.126

0.910

0.961

4.121

5.378

0.923

0.951

4.235

5.152

0.902

0.963

4.410

5.430

0.927

This section veries and validates the performance of the hybrid

system EFSIMT in predicting HPC compressive strength. The model

proposed herein predicts the compressive strength of HPC using an

experimental database originally collected by Yeh [40] and furnished

from various university research labs, which was posted to the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository website. The

database includes a total of 1030 concrete samples and covers 9 attributes, 8 of which are quantitative input variables and 1 of which is an

output variable. Each instance includes the amount of cements, y

ash, blast furnace slag, water, superplasticizers, coarse aggregate,

ne aggregate, age of testing and the compressive strength (in

MPa). Table 2 shows the general details of the nine attributes used

in this study. However, the database often contains unexpected inaccuracies [24], as for instance, the class of y ash may not be indicated.

Another problem is related to superplasticizer as chemical admixture

produced by different manufactures which may have different chemical compositions [15,41]. Moreover, Chou et al. [15] identied that

such inaccuracies induce another difculty related to the compressive

strength which can be classied into a specic class such as high or

low concrete compressive strength.

EFSIMT employs FL to manage environments characterized by

uncertainty, vagueness, presumptions and subjectivity. This capability is suited to HPC database characteristics. As pointed out by

Kasperkiewicz et al. [24] the HPC database often contains inaccuracies

due to mixing proportions, mixing techniques and ingredient characteristics (e.g., varying degrees of nesses, classes of y ash, and types

of superplasticizer). Such makes prediction of HPC compressive

strength a highly uncertain task. Moreover, EFSIMT is also able to

deal with time series data characteristics inherent to HPC databases

(e.g., compressive strength measures representing 14 different testing ages ranging from 1 day to 365 days as shown in Table 3).

To develop the HPC compressive strength prediction system, the

1030 samples were divided randomly into training and testing sets.

90% or 927 samples were assigned to the training set and the remainder, 10% or 103 samples, were assigned to the testing set. As the

EFSIMT was to be compared against SVM and BPN result accuracies,

SVM and BPN parameter setting procedures followed previous researcher

suggestions and settings. In this study, as suggested by Hsu et al. [22] parameter settings for SVMs, herein C and were set to 1 and 1k respectively,

with k representing number of input patterns. The parameter setting for

BPN followed Yeh [40] and Yeh and Lien [41] and assigned network architecture settings as: 1 hidden layer containing 8 hidden units, and learning

parameter settings as: 1.0 for learning rate, and 0.5 for momentum factor.

This study employed four performance measures, namely root

mean square error (RMSE), coefcient correlation (r), coefcient of

determination (R 2) and mean absolute error (MAE) to verify and validate the accuracy of the proposed system and other AI models.

Table 4 shows RSME, r, R 2, and MAE results of the proposed EFSIMT

system (linear, quadratic and exponential time series functions) compared against the other AI systems (SVM and BPN). Based on the four

different evaluation methods for both training and testing datasets,

SVMs provided the least satisfactory result. In comparing BPN and

EFSIMT (linear, quadratic and exponential time series functions)

based on RSME and MAE, BPN performed slightly better than EFSIMT,

but only on training data (not on the testing data set). However, in

terms of coefcient correlation (r) and the coefcient of determination (R 2) for the training data set, EFSIMT is comparable to BPN.

Fig. 6 presents scatter diagrams of SVMs, BPN and EFSIMT (linear,

quadratic and exponential time series functions) for the training

data set.

Better results were achieved by EFSIMT in terms of predicting testing dataset results, which shows that the EFSIMT training data learning process provides a prediction model superior to BPN. Such

conrms that EFSIMT (linear, quadratic and exponential time series

functions) delivers comparable or higher performance than BPN.

This better learning ability demonstrates EFSIMT ability to cope with

Table 3

HPC database examples.

Cement

(kg/m3)

(kg/m3)

Fly ash

(kg/m3)

Water

(kg/m3)

Superplasticizer

(kg/m3)

Coarse aggregate

(kg/m3)

Fine aggregate

(kg/m3)

Age of testing

(day)

(MPa)

540.0

540.0

332.5

332.5

198.6

168.0

168.0

190.0

485.0

374.0

313.3

425.0

425.0

375.0

0.0

0.0

142.5

142.5

132.4

42.1

42.1

190.0

0.0

189.2

262.2

106.3

106.3

93.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

163.8

163.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

162.0

162.0

228.0

228.0

192.0

121.8

121.8

228.0

146.0

170.1

175.5

153.5

151.4

126.6

2.5

2.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.7

5.7

0.0

0.0

10.1

8.6

16.5

18.6

23.4

1040.0

1055.0

932.0

932.0

978.4

1058.7

1058.7

932.0

1120.0

926.1

1046.9

852.1

936.0

852.1

676.0

676.0

594.0

594.0

825.5

780.1

780.1

670.0

800.0

756.7

611.8

887.1

803.7

992.6

28

28

270

365

360

14

28

28

28

3

3

3

3

3

79.99

61.89

40.27

41.05

44.30

17.82

24.24

40.86

71.99

34.40

28.80

33.40

36.30

29.00

SVMs

100

BPN

R2 = 0.7217

100

R2 = 0.9038

80

80

60

40

20

60

40

20

20

40

60

80

100

20

80

100

80

100

R2 = 0.9096

100

80

60

40

60

40

20

20

20

40

60

80

100

20

40

60

Exponential EFSIM T

R2 = 0.9023

100

80

60

Quadratic EFSIM T

R2 = 0.9088

80

40

Linear EFSIMT

100

113

60

40

20

20

40

60

80

100

Fig. 6. Scatter diagram of actual vs. predicted between SVMs, BPN and EFSIMT on training data set.

114

EFSIMT employed wSVM, the proposed model is also able to map

the complex relationship between input and output variables as

well as manage time series characteristics inherent to HPC databases.

While EFSIMT employed three different time series functions (linear, quadratic and exponential) to weigh data points, one preferable

time series function should be chosen based on performance achieved

by each time series function, both in the training and testing datasets.

As shown in Table 4, the EFSIMT using quadratic functions, generally

provides slightly better performance, especially on the testing data

set, in comparison with the EFSIMT using linear and exponential

time series functions. However, it should be noted that differences

in performance obtained between the three time functions were not

signicant. This shows that there remains room for improvement to

nd a better time series function to predict HPC compressive strength.

The proposed model, EFSIMT, offers the potential to predict HPC compressive strength. The practitioners can obtain early, applicable and reliable prediction of concrete compressive strength for pre-design and

quality control, as waiting 28 days to get 28-day compressive strength

or later-age compressive strength is time-consuming. In accordance

with Zain and Abd [42] and Chou et al. [14] the rapid prediction would

enable the adjustment of mix proportion to avoid situation where concrete does not reach the required compressive strength, which would

save time and construction costs.

5. Conclusion

This paper proposed EFSIMT as a hybrid AI system to predict HPC

compressive strength, a mechanical property critical to measuring HPC

quality. EFSIMT was developed by fusing FL, wSVMs and fmGA. FL was

used to address uncertainties inherent in HPC; wSVMs addressed complex relationships related to fuzzy inputoutput mapping and measured

variations in time series data in the HPC database (e.g., compressive

strength) with regard to testing age; and fmGA was an optimization

tool used to handle FL and wSVM search parameters.

In comparison with SVMs, the accuracy of the proposed EFSIMT

was signicantly better for four different evaluation measurements.

However, in comparison with BPN, especially in terms of training

dataset results, the proposed method achieved comparable results.

Such was contrary to testing dataset results, where EFSIMT performed

better than BPN. Such results demonstrate the superior ability of

EFSIMT to manage 1) time series data characteristics inherent in

HPC experimental data, 2) complex relationships between input and

output variables, and 3) uncertainties inherent in HPC databases.

Therefore, EFSIMT offers strong potential as a predictive tool for HPC

compressive strength.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Professor I-Cheng Yeh for providing the HPC database.

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