MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE: FRIENDS OF JOHN McCAIN BILL MCINTURFF, PARTNER RECENT POLL RESULTS IN ARIZONA JANUARY

29, 2010

METHODOLOGY: On behalf of Friends of John McCain, Public Opinion Strategies conducted a statewide survey of 600 Republican Primary voters in Arizona January 11-13, 2010. The margin of error for 600 interviews is +4.0%. The sample of 600 respondents was randomly drawn from the AZ statewide voter file. Eighty-one percent (81%) of the sample was made up of Republican primary voters, while nineteen percent (19%) of the sample was made up of Independent voters who are likely to vote in the 2010 Arizona GOP Primary. About half of these Independent voters had previously voted in one or more Republican Primary and the other half were categorized as potential GOP Primary voters based on their voter history and self-described likelihood of voting in this GOP Primary. Further, respondents were screened to include only those voters who were not employed by a newspaper, television or radio station, a political party, or by a candidate for political office, and were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona between John McCain and J.D. Hayworth. Geographically, the sample reflects the population of likely GOP Primary voters based on voter history by county and by Congressional District within Maricopa County. 1. John McCain enjoys a very high favorable rating among Republican primary voters. IMAGE Very Favorable Total Favorable Total Unfavorable • McCain 41% 82% 17% Hayworth 27% 60% 14%

This is a “mature” election for so early in the primary as 93% of voters have heard of J.D. Hayworth and almost three out of four (74%) have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him personally. Currently, McCain enjoys a comfortable 59%-30% edge over J.D. Hayworth on the ballot.

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Senator McCain not only enjoys a comfortable lead, but has a significant edge on intensity as well with 37% “definitely voting” for McCain versus 17% “definitely voting” for Hayworth. This very positive ratio on intensity is important as it indicates the depth of support Senator McCain enjoys with Republican primary voters.

Forty-five percent (45%) of those interviewed describe themselves as being “very conservative” and the race is quite competitive among these voters. However, Senator McCain’s support among “somewhat conservative” and “moderate/liberal” primary voters is so large, it builds a comfortable margin. Further, Senator McCain’s margin among Independents who participate in a Republican primary also helps build his majority in this campaign. Initial Ballot Test McCain Overall Very Conservative Somewhat Conservative Moderate/Liberals Republicans Independents 59% Ideology 43% 64% 84% Party 58% 66% Hayworth 30% 44% 26% 8% 32% 23% Difference 29% -1% 38% 76% 26% 43%

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After hearing more information about both candidates, ballot support for Senator McCain increases. Voters were then presented with a campaign narrative that included positive information about both candidates as well as information that is likely to be raised by critics in a Republican primary campaign. The survey tested what critics might say about Senator McCain’s voting record on immigration, taxes, and the environment as well as positive statements about his efforts opposing President Obama’s health care plan and his record of accomplishment on behalf of Arizona. It also tested a roughly equal number of positive statements about Hayworth along with statements that would be raised by critics of his voting record. These statements included information about former Congressman Hayworth’s support for earmarks and ethics concerns raised in his unsuccessful 2006 re-election campaign. After hearing this back and forth narrative about the two candidates, support for former Congressman Hayworth drops and there is a net eight point shift towards Senator McCain. BALLOT SHIFT Initial Ballot Final Ballot Difference • McCain 59% 64% 5% Hayworth 30% 27% -3% Difference 29% 37% 8%

Through the course of Senator McCain’s career and especially having run and won the nomination of the Republican party for president, primary voters in Arizona say they are well aware of what critics might say about his voting record. Conversely, the information about former Congressman Hayworth’s voting record and ethical allegations is comparatively new information – which is among the reasons it impacts and limits his ballot support.