Using Ratio Analysis

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Using Ratio Analysis

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TERM PAPER

correlation with share price

Alok Singh (2011TT10900)

Abstract

We have studied the share price correlation with the ratios of the company Arvind Ltd. and

their analysis as a whole.

A high correlation between a ratio and share price in case specific to Arvind Ltd. indicates

that the investors have focussed mainly on this ratio and taken their decision per say to

buy/sell the share of the company. Correlation was mainly used as a tool here as it can

precisely predict the linear component b/w two quantities.

Contents

1. Introduction & Objectives

2. Methodology

3. Analysis

12

15

6. Conclusion

16

7. Bibliography

17

Company Ratios act as a strong determinant of the progress of a company over its lifetime.

If we can predict how stock prices manipulate, than it would be extremely beneficial mainly

to the company but also for its shareholders, industry and investors.

Each ratio released every year provide a different dimension of the company. The stock price

too acts as an important factor determining the state of affairs of a company.

In order to deliver a positive image on the investors , company managers generally perform

comprehensive planning and try to create effective strategies in order to increase value of the

stocks of the company.

An economic market is that market where the share price of all the companies is at par. Here,

there current price of a share has turned stable after a long period of time. In such a situation,

the flow of the share price is generally an exact function of predetermined factors and there is

no incentive for investors. However such a situation is far from being true in the practical

world.(An analysis of financial ratios for the Oslo Stock Exchange)

We have chosen company financial ratios as the determining factor for the share price of the

company and the correlations should be predictable from the papers theory.

Methodology

We have downloaded the last 10 years daily share prices for Arvind Ltd. from Yahoo!

Finance.

We have obtained few important ratios for Arvind Ltd. based on our understanding of

the ratios that should act as a strong determinant for the share price.

Company ratios are declared at the end of the fiscal year but share prices fluctuate and

change every second. Hence to solve this problem, as an alternative we have taken

average value of share price. That is opening value and closing value to arrive at a

single figure.

This approach can be worked out as company ratio should predict the general flow of

the share price.

Now that we have gathered a set of ratios and share prices, we run the MS EXCEL inbuilt function correlation which returns the correlation between the ratios and the

share price flow.

Finally we are in a position to remark about the denim market of Arvind Ltd. as to

how it reacts to changes in ratios.

Analysis

The various relevant ratios for our analysis on Arvind Ltd. are obtained and plotted in the

table below.

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

Mar-

13

12

11

10

09

08

07

06

05

04

0.85

0.79

1.22

1.4

1.79

1.37

1.5

1.29

1.44

1.28

0.41

0.35

0.7

0.82

1.13

0.9

1.06

0.88

0.98

0.99

Quick Ratio

0.75

0.67

1.12

0.98

1.10

1.36

1.56

1.71

1.69

1.66

Current Ratio

0.94

0.95

1.23

1.18

1.29

1.5

1.76

1.94

1.95

1.79

Total Assets TR

0.89

0.97

0.81

0.72

0.82

0.74

0.62

0.47

0.56

0.55

Fixed Assets TR

0.99

0.85

0.78

0.86

0.85

1.16

1.11

1.12

0.9

Inventory TR

4.32

4.82

3.99

5.84

4.22

4.13

2.88

3.34

3.28

3.69

Debtors TR

8.92

7.21

5.39

5.98

7.66

9.49

6.38

4.62

6.02

5.92

1.97

1.87

1.33

1.09

0.88

0.65

1.03

2.11

1.28

ROCE (%)

12.42

13.97

8.66

7.25

5.85

3.46

5.27

7.91

8.37

6.92

RONW (%)

11.35

9.06

4.74

1.43

-2.66

-4.83

-0.07

8.15

10.24

2.32

1.012

17.05

5.3

2.21

-2.26

1.14

1.06

5.89

6.31

4.53

11.67

9.41

7.8

3.45

-2.06

-2.44

1.86

9.17

10.59

8.39

Key Ratios

Debt-Equity

Ratio

Long Term DebtEquity Ratio

Interest Cover

Ratio

Price Earning

(P/E)

ROE(%)

*TR=Turnover Ratio

The key ratios shown above are obtained from moneycontrol.com out of the various other

ratios mentioned there relevant to our study.

By using these ratios, the graphs for Liquidity, Solvency, Turnover and Profitability ratios are

plotted using MS-Excel.

Liquidity ratios

Quick Ratio

Current Ratio

2.5

Ratio

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Liquidity Ratios:

Liquidity ratios attempt to measure a company's ability to pay off its short-term debt

obligations. This is done by comparing a company's most liquid assets (or, those that can be

easily converted to cash), its short-term liabilities. (investopia.com)

The ratios that we have looked into in the plot are the Quick ratio and Current ratio. From this

graph of 10yr data of Arvind Ltd. it can be seen that the Quick ratio and Current ratio has

continuously decreased more or less over the period and that too below 1. The difference

between Quick ratio and Current ratio is only due to Inventory and Prepaid Expenses that is

taken into consideration in current ratio.

5

It is indicating that the company is having difficulty meeting expenses incurred in running its

operations, as well as meeting its obligations. However, in order to get a better sense of

liquidity, an investor should also notice a companys operating cash flow. Hence, it may raise

a red flag for some of the investors.

Turnover/efficiency

Total Assets

Fixed Assets

Inventory

Debtors

10

9

8

Turnover

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Turnover/Efficiency Ratio:

The asset turnover ratio is an efficiency ratio that measures a company's ability to

generate sales from its assets by comparing net sales with average total assets.

(myaccountingcourse.com)

Fixed asset and total asset turnover ratios are almost remaining constant and equal to

1. A ratio of 1 implies that the net sales of a company equal to the average total assets

for the year. In other words, the company is generating 1 Rupee of sales for every

Rupee invested in assets.

But from the asset turnover ratio, a clear picture cant be obtained until and unless it is

compared with other companies in the same industry.

Inventory Turnover ratio shows how many times a company's inventory is sold and

replaced over a period of operation. A low inventory turnover ratio implies poor sales

and, therefore, excess inventory. A high inventory turnover ratio implies either strong

sales or an ineffective buying. (investopia.com)

From the graph, we can see that this turnover ratio is remaining close to 4 over the

period. For this particular industry, clearly speaking it is an average ratio.

High inventory levels are usually unhealthy as they represent an investment with a

rate of return (ROR) equating to zero. It also sometimes opens the company up to

trouble generation if the prices begin to fall.

Debtors Turnover ratio shows the numbers of times per year the Debtors will

turnover/pay back the money. (myvce.com)

From the graph, we can see an increasing and decreasing curve for the 10yr financial

data. But then too, it is much higher than 1.

A higher ratio is better as the business would be collecting money fastly and hence its

liquidity position will try to become stronger.

On the other hand, a low debtors turnover ratio is not good as it indicates that the

business have not managed debtors in a more better and efficient way.

Debt/Solvency

Debt-Equity Ratio

2.5

2

Ratio

1.5

1

0.5

0

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Debt/Solvency Ratios:

Solvency ratios are one of the various ratios used to measure the ability of a company to

meet its long term debts. Moreover, the solvency ratio quantifies the size of a companys

after tax income, not counting non-cash depreciation expenses, as contrasted to the total debt

obligations of the firm. Also, it provides an assessment of the likelihood of a company to

continue congregating its debt obligations. (readyratios.com)

Debt-to-Equity ratio is the ratio of total liabilities of a business to its shareholders' equity. It

is a leverage ratio and it measures the degree to which the assets of the business are financed

by the debts and the shareholders' equity of a business. (accountingexplained.com)

From the graph, we can see that the debt-equity ratio has decreased from more than 1 to less

than 1 in the corresponding years. Hence, risk on the business has decreased in the years

corresponding and percentage of the assets of the business which were financed by debts to

be decreasing.

8

assets are financed from long term debt. Long-term debt-to-equity ratio is an important

indicator that financial-market players rely on to gauge corporate solvency. (ehow.com)

From the graph, we can see that the Long term debt-equity ratio has decreased from 1 to less

than 0.5 in the corresponding years. This may show a figure to corporate financers that senior

leadership/managers of the business are too timid in risk-taking and may be missing

opportunities in the market.

Conversely, a high ratio could mean the firm is taking on too much debt relative to its equity

capital. Hence, this ratio should be around 1 for effective image build up in the market.

Interest Coverage ratio is used to determine how easily a company can pay interest on

outstanding debt. The interest coverage ratio is calculated by dividing a company's earnings

before interest and taxes (EBIT) of one period by the company's interest expenses of the same

period. (investopedia.com)

From the graph, we can see the conflicting nature of interest coverage ratio of the company. It

has increased, decreased and further increased to the same level. By increasing its ratio

above 1.5 it has overcome its debt expense.

When a company's interest coverage ratio (ICR) is around 1.5 or lower, its ability to meet

interest expenses may be questionable by the investors. An interest coverage ratio below 1

indicates that the company is not generating sufficient revenues to satisfy its interest

expenses.

A business that can barely manage to cover its interest costs may easily fall into bankruptcy if

its earnings suffer for even a single month of operation. (investopia.com)

Profitability Ratio

ROCE (%)

RONW (%)

ROE(%)

20

15

Ratio

10

5

0

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

-5

-10

Profitability Ratios:

A class of financial metrics that are used to assess a business's ability to generate earnings as

compared to its expenses and other relevant costs incurred during a specific period of time.

For most of these ratios, having a higher value relative to a competitor's ratio or the same

ratio from a previous period is indicative that the company is doing well. (investopedia.com)

Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is the ratio of net operating profit of a company to its

capital employed. It measures the profitability of a company by expressing its operating profit

as a percentage of its capital employed.

(accountingexplained.com)

From the graph, we can see that ROCE has been seeing an increasing curve except a downfall

in few particular years. But, than too it is on a higher scale. A higher value of ROCE is

favourable indicating that the business is generating more earnings per Rupee of capital

employed. A lower value of ROCE indicates lower profitability. A company having fewer

assets but earning same profit as its competitors will have higher value of ROCE and thus

higher profitability.

10

Return on Net worth (RONW) reveals how much profit a business generates with the

money invested by the equity shareholders. Also called Return on Equity. It tells common

shareholders how effectively their money is being employed in the business. (investopia.com)

From the graph, we can see that RONW had a dip at one point of time and that too below 0

but after that it has been able to keep up and increasing. A rising RONW suggests that the

business is increasing its ability to generate profit without needing as much a capital. It also

indicates how well the business managers are deploying the shareholders capital. In other

words, the higher the RONW the better. Falling RONW is usually a problem for business.

However, it is important to also note that if the value of the shareholders equity goes down,

RONW goes up. Likewise, a high level of debt can artificially depict boosting RONW; after

all, the more debt a business has on itself, the fewer shareholders equity it has and the higher

its RONW is. (investopia.com)

Price Earning (P/E) ratio is a valuation ratio of a business current share price value

compared to its per-share earnings. The P/E is sometimes referred to as the "multiple", as it

shows how much the investors are willing to pay per Rupee of its earnings. (investopia.com)

From the graph, we can see the P/E ratio has drastic changes. It was positive in few years due

to exceptional performance and more often than usual it is either decreasing or close to 0.

In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the

future compared to business with a lower P/E ratio.

It is important for the investors to avoid basing a decision on this measure alone as an

important problem may arise with the P/E measure. The denominator (earnings) is based on

an accounting measure of earnings that is susceptible to forms of manipulation by the

business.

Generally a high P/E ratio means that investors are anticipating higher growth in the future.

11

-0.59

Debt-Equity Ratio

Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio

-0.4063

Quick Ratio

0.1034

Current Ratio

0.1388

Turnover Ratios

Total Assets

-0.145

Fixed Assets

0.5083

Inventory

-0.2837

Debtors

-0.0646

0.7598

ROCE (%)

0.5547

RONW (%)

0.7887

0.3536

ROE(%)

0.8716

Table: Correlation Matrix for Arvind Ltd.

12

correlation and a value close to -1 indicates a strong opposite correlation.

with share price. Hence, it is negatively correlated with share price in case of Arvind Ltd.

This is as per our expectation as a decrease in debt percentage generally reduces interest

liabilities of the business and even in case of low or moderate profits ensures dividends to be

paid to the investors.

Same is the case with Long-Term Debt-Equity Ratio. It has a negative correlation too but

of somewhat less degree than Debt-Equity Ratio with share price.

In case of Quick Ratio and Current Ratio, both of them are having a low positive

correlation value close to 0. Hence a change in these two ratios doesnt have any such

considerable effect or correlation with the share price.

Same goes for Total Asset Turnover Ratio and Debtors Turnover Ratio. Both of them

have a negative correlation value close to 0 .Hence, doesnt have any such considerable effect

on the share price.

In case of Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio, the moderate positive correlation value is

considerable. Hence, on increasing nature of Fixed Asset Turnover ratio, the share price

would also have an increasing nature and vice-versa. From the Turnover graph of Arvind

Ltd., the Fixed Asset turnover ratio has almost remained constant close to 1 .Hence; it didnt

have any much effect on share price of Arvind Ltd.

13

On increasing and decreasing trend of the ratio from Turnover graph we can see that the share

price has decreased and then increased for the same period. Having a large inventory than

sales usually have a degrading effect on efficiency of the business. Hence, no specific pattern

is observed with this.

Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) has a high positive correlation value close to 1. Hence, on

increasing the ICR, the share prices will also increase and vice-versa. From the graph too we

can see that it has followed almost the same curve as share price. A reason for this can be that

as ICR increases, investors feel safe about their money invested in the business and hence a

high positive correlation.

In case of profitability ratios (ROCE, ROE, P/E, RONW) all have a high positive

correlation with share price. Hence the share prices of the shares are governed more by

investors rather than traders.

This is as per our expectation as an increase in these ratios indicate higher profitability. Due

to this demand for the share increases in the market, ultimately leading to increase in the

share price.

14

For a year we have taken the average of the daily share prices at a figure of annual

share price. In a true sense this may not depict the nature of the business

We have not considered any correlation between any two ratios but it may have been

possible to predict or determine share price using them as a whole.

We have also assumed other ratios while calculating correlation between a ratio and

share price to be constant.

By interpolating relation between share price and ratios ,we may be able to predict

future share prices.

A better estimation can be achieved if we are able to take live share prices to obtain a

dynamic correlation.

We can extend this study to other companies of the same industry and have a better

estimation per se.

15

Conclusion

We are now in a position to conclude how the investors and maybe investment banks study a

business before investing in it. A investor per se generally focuses on a business inherent

performance and a high correlation would ensure that certain external factors like trade

recessions, etc. to cause mild or less effect on the state of the business in the market.

By the correlation outcomes, we have seen that different ratios have entirely different effect

on the share prices. Some show a high correlation with share price while other dont or not at

all. Hence, investors should look each of them entirely different and cautiously for judging

the performance of the business before investing.

If given an opportunity and time, we would try to look into the different companies of the

same sector and then judge the performance and try to correlate on the same.

16

Bibliography

M.Thenmozhi, Market Value Added and Share Price Behaviour, Delhi Business

Review, 2000 , Vol.1, No.1

Economics and Finance, 1989, Vol.12, No.1

Yahoo! Finance

http://moneycontrol.com

http://investopia.com

http://accountingexplained.com

http://capitaline.com

Rodiel C. Ferrer, The Impact of Merger and Acquisition, Financial Ratios on Stock

Price among the Industrial Firms in the Philippines

Ole-Christian Hillestad, An analysis of financial ratios for the Oslo Stock Exchange

Turk, A. and Chapman, The Effects of Financial Ratios and Market Hype on Short

Term Stock Prices. Illinois Wesleyan University, 2006

17

http://plagiarisma.net

Results

Query

Unique

Unique

& their correlation with share price Sanchit Garg (2011TT10960) Alok Singh (2011TT10900) Abstract

We have studied the share price correlation with the ratios of the company Arvind Ltd

plosone.org nlp.stanford.edu

repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt

About 3 results

Unique

A high correlation between a ratio and share price in case specific to Arvind Ltd

Unique

indicates that the investors have focussed mainly on this ratio and taken their decision per say to

buy/sell the share of the company

Unique

Correlation was mainly used as a tool here as it can precisely predict the linear component b/w two

quantities

About 120,999,585

results

Contents

contentsmagazine.com en.wikipedia.org

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

thefreedictionary.com api.jquery.com

plato.stanford.edu mediawiki.org twitter.com

About 53 results

clickplayceu.com clickplayceu.com

clickplayceu.com clickplayceu.com

clickplayceu.com clickplayceu.com

legacy.samsi.info

Methodology 3

psychcentral.com cubicleninjas.com

gmm.fsksm.utm.my linkedin.com jobs.ac.uk

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Analysis 4

Unique

Unique

Conclusion 16

Unique

Unique

msg.com msg.com msg.com bbc.co.uk drf.com

math.le.ac.uk aerothai.co.th icao.int icao.int

enterthebible.org h20565.www2.hp.com

poker.about.com

Bibliography 17 1 Introduction & Objectives Company Ratios act as a strong determinant of the

progress of a company over its lifetime

If we can predict how stock prices manipulate, than it would be extremely beneficial mainly to the

company but also for its shareholders, industry and investors

Unique

Each ratio released every year provide a different dimension of the company

Unique

The stock price too acts as an important factor determining the state of affairs of a company

Unique

An economic market is that market where the share price of all the companies is at par

Unique

Here, there current price of a share has turned stable after a long period of time

Unique

In such a situation, the flow of the share price is generally an exact function of predetermined factors

and there is no incentive for investors

About 1 results

However such a situation is far from being true in the practical world

Unique

(An analysis of financial ratios for the Oslo Stock Exchange) We have chosen company financial ratios

as the determining factor for the share price of the company and the correla

cse.iitd.ernet.in

Unique

generally perform comprehensive planning and try to create effective strategies in

order to increase value of the stocks

SML401 TERM PAPER Ratio Analysis of 10yr data of Arvind Ltd. & their correlation with share price Sanchit Garg

(2011TT10960) Alok Singh (2011TT10900) Abstract We have studied the share price correlation with the ratios of the

company Arvind Ltd. and their analysis as a whole. A high correlation between a ratio and share price in case specific to

Arvind Ltd. indicates that the investors have focussed mainly on this ratio and taken their decision per say to buy/sell the

share of the company. Correlation was mainly used as a tool here as it can precisely predict the linear component b/w two

quantities. Contents 1. Introduction & Objectives 2 2. Methodology 3 3. Analysis 4 4. Share Price Correlation 12 5.

Assumptions & Scope 15 6. Conclusion 16 7. Bibliography 17 1 Introduction & Objectives Company Ratios act as a strong

determinant of the progress of a company over its lifetime. If we can predict how stock prices manipulate, than it would be

extremely beneficial mainly to the company but also for its shareholders, industry and investors. Each ratio released every

year provide a different dimension of the company. The stock price too acts as an important factor determining the state of

affairs of a company. In order to deliver a positive image on the investors , company managers generally perform

comprehensive planning and try to create effective strategies in order to increase value of the stocks of the company. An

economic market is that market where the share price of all the companies is at par. Here, there current price of a share has

turned stable after a long period of time. In such a situation, the flow of the share price is generally an exact function of

predetermined factors and there is no incentive for investors. However such a situation is far from being true in the practical

world.(An analysis of financial ratios for the Oslo Stock Exchange) We have chosen company financial ratios as the

determining factor for the share price of the company and the correla

Total 18666 chars, 3120 words, unique sentences 92%, 90% originality

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