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Journal of Ship Research, Vol. 57, No. 1, March 2013, pp.

113
http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/JOSR.57.1.120007

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Comparison of Measured Ship Squat with Numerical


and Empirical Methods
Michael J. Briggs,* Paul J. Kopp, Vladimir K. Ankudinov, and Andrew L. Silver

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*Research Hydraulic Engineer, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, Mississippi

Naval Architect, Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division, Seakeeping Department, West Bethesda, Maryland

Formerly Group Director (now deceased), TRANSAS, Hydrodynamics and Research Department, Washington, DC

Engineer, Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division, Seakeeping Department, West Bethesda, Maryland

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The Beck, Newman and Tuck (BNT) numerical predictions are used in the Coastal
and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) Channel Analysis and Design Evaluation Tool
(CADET) model for predicting underkeel clearance (UKC) resulting from ship motions
and squat. The Ankudinov empirical squat prediction formula has been used in the
CHL ship simulator and was recently updated. The World Association for Waterborne
Transport Infrastructure (formerly The Permanent International Association of Navigation Congresses, PIANC) has recommended several empirical and physics-based
formulas for the prediction of ship squat. Some of the most widely used formulas
include those of Barrass, Eryuzlu, Huuska, ICORELS, Romisch, Tuck, and
Yoshimura. The purpose of this article is to compare BNT, Ankudinov, and PIANC
predictions with measured DGPS squat data from the Panama Canal for four ships.
These comparisons demonstrate that the BNT, Ankudinov, and PIANC predictions fall
within the range of squat measurements and can be used with confidence in deep
draft channel design.

Keywords: ship squat; numerical models; empirical formulas; ship measurements

Manuscript received at SNAME headquarters November 19, 2012; revised


manuscript received January 11, 2013.
MARCH 2013

0022-4502/13/5701-0001$00.00/0

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HISTORICALLY, THE World Association for Waterborne Transport


Infrastructure (formerly The Permanent International Association
of Navigation Congresses, PIANC) has recommended several
empirical and physics-based formulas for the prediction of ship
squat. These include those of Tuck (1966), Guliev (1971), Hooft
(1974), Huuska (1976), ICORELS (1980), Norrbin (1986),
Yoshimura (1986), Romisch (1989), Millward (1992), Eryuzlu,
Cao, and DAgnolo (1994), and Barrass (2009). Most are functions of a limited number of ship and channel parameters in an
effort to minimize the number of free parameters and increase the
ease of use. Typical ship parameters include ship speed, Vk, block
coefficient, CB, and ship dimensions of length between perpendiculars, Lpp, beam, B, and draft, T. Channel parameters include
water depth, h, type of channel cross-section, Ac, side slope, n,

and bottom channel width, W. Channel types include idealized


cross-sections representing unrestricted (U) or open channels,
restricted (R) or dredged with a trench, and canal (C) with sides
that extend to the surface (PIANC 1997). However, many ship
and channel parameters are not known with certainty. Channel
cross-sections are usually not as simple as the three idealized
shapes and dimensions can vary considerably along the channel
length. All parameters used in this article are listed in the Nomenclature section.
The PIANC formulas are usually considered the standard for
predicting ship squat if field or laboratory measurements are not
available. Most of these PIANC formulas were developed over a
decade ago from limited laboratory and field measurements but
are used for the newer generation of containerships, tankers, and
bulk carriers. Some such as Tuck and Romisch are more physicsbased, whereas others like Barrass and Yoshimura are more
empirical in nature. Although many pilots and channel designers
have their favorites, no one formula has demonstrated itself to
be universally better for all ship types and channel shapes. Briggs

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1. Introduction

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underkeel clearance (UKC). Compared with other empirical formulas, it is somewhat more complicated because it includes additional input parameters to account for the effects of the ships
propeller, bulbous bow, stern transom, initial trim, and the channels depth, blockage, and cross-section. Modifications have
recently been incorporated to improve its accuracy.
Most mariners and pilots are more concerned with the static
UKC and not just ship squat. Static UKC is the safety margin or
what is left after subtracting static draft and trim from the
channel depth. Ship squat and an allowance for vertical ship
motions (for ships exposed to waves) must be subtracted to get
the net UKC. A brief mention of the static UKC is provided for
each ship, but the main focus of the article is comparisons of
ship squat.
The purpose of this article is to compare the BNT, Ankudinov,
and PIANC predictions for four ships with measured ship squat
data from the Panama Canal. This article is an update of preliminary comparisons of Ankudinov and PIANC predictions (Briggs
& Daggett 2009). These comparisons of almost 3000 squat measurements demonstrate that the BNT, Ankudinov, and PIANC
predictions fall within the range of the squat measurements and
can be used with confidence in deep draft channel design. The
second section in this article describes the ship and channel
parameters in the Panama Canal study. Section 3 describes the
CADET/BNT ship squat program. The Ankudinov ship squat
formulas are presented in the next section. Section 5 describes
the five PIANC empirical squat formulas used in this study.

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(2006) has recommended examining squat predictions with more


than one formula and comparing the results based on the type of
ship, channel, and formula constraints. Because there is no one
formula that is universally accepted, an average, range, or maximum value might be considered in channel design.
The PIANC MarCom Working Group 49 (WG49) is updating
the 1997 PIANC guidance (1997) and expects to publish their
report in 2013. The WG49 has reduced the number of squat prediction formulas to seven of the most popular formulas. These
include the updated versions by Barrass, Eryuzlu, Huuska,
ICORELS, Romisch, Tuck, and Yoshimura.
The Channel Analysis and Design Evaluation Tool (CADET)
is a computer program originally developed by the US Navy to
determine the optimum dredge depth for entrance channels (2005)
used by military vessels. It uses an external program, BNT (based
on the work of Beck, Newman & Tuck 1975), to predict ship
squat. BNT is a potential flow program that predicts sinkage and
trim from vertical force and pitching moment resulting from the
dynamic pressure on the hull. Briggs et al. (2010a) found reasonable agreement between BNT and PIANC predictions for several
ships including an aircraft carrier, two containerships, a tanker,
and a bulk carrier for two different channels.
The Ankudinov ship squat formula is an empirical formula that
predicts maximum squat resulting from midpoint sinkage and
vessel trim (Ankudinov et al. 2000). It has been used in the
Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) Ship/Tow Simulator to
account for ship squat in the determination of instantaneous

Nomenclature

channel width correction factor, Huuska


trim coefficient, Ankudinov
stern transom factor, Ankudinov
initial trim effect factor, Ankudinov
unrestricted channel correction factor,
Romisch
squat at critical speed, Romisch
ship length between perpendiculars, m
mean absolute error between predicted
and measured squat, m
inverse bank slope
trim exponent, Ankudinov
channel effect parameter, Ankudinov
channel effect, trim correction
parameter, Ankudinov
ship forward speed parameter,
Ankudinov
propeller effect in shallow water on trim
parameter, Ankudinov
water depth parameter, Ankudinov
ship hull parameter for shallow water,
Ankudinov
Pearson correlation coefficient
root mean square error, m
ratio between predicted and
measured squat
blockage factor As/Ac
bow squat, m
channel depth factor for R and
C channels, Ankudinov
midpoint ship sinkage, m/m1,
Ankudinov and BNT

KDT
Lpp
MAE

PFnh
PhT
Ph/T
PHu

S
Sb
Sh
Sm

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R
RMSE
RS

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n
nTr
PCh1
PCh2

SMax maximum ship squat at bow or stern,


BNT, ft
Ss stern squat, m
SM,j measured ship squat at location j, m
SP,j predicted ship squat at location j for
BNT, Ankudinov, or PIANC, m

S M average ship squat for measured
DGPS, m

S P average ship squat for predicted BNT,
Ankudinov, or PIANC, m
s1 corrected blockage factor, Huuska
T ship draft, m
Tap draft at aft perpendicular
Tfp draft at forward perpendicular
Tr ship trim, m/m1, Ankudinov and BNT
Vcr critical ship speed, m/s1
Ve enhanced ship speed, Yoshimura, m/s1
Vk ship speed, knots
VS ship speed, m/s1
W channel width, measured at bottom, m
WEff effective width of waterway, m
WTop channel width, measured at top, m
sM standard deviation of ship squat for
measured DGPS, m
sP standard deviation of ship squat
for predicted BNT, Ankudinov,
or PIANC, m
r ship volume of displacement, m3

MARCH 2013

KS
KTr
KTT r
KTT 1
KU

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Ac wetted cross-section area of canal, m2


As ships underwater amidships
cross-section, m2
B ships beam, m
BS bias or difference between predicted
and measured squat, m
BTr stern transom width, Ankudinov
CB ships block coefficient
CF correction factor for ship
shape, Romisch
CV correction factor for ship
speed, Romisch
Fnh Froude depth number
g gravitational acceleration (9.81 m/s2)
h water depth, m
hm mean water depth, Romisch, m
hmT restricted channel water depth,
Romisch, m
hOut height outside underwater trench,
similar to hT, ft
hT height of dredged underwater trench, m
j location along Panama Canal
K channel coefficient, Barrass
Kb correction factor for channel
width, Eryuzlu
KbT bulbous bow factor, Ankudinov
KC canal channel correction factor,
Romisch
KPS propeller sinkage factor, Ankudinov
KPT propeller trim factor, Ankudinov
KR restricted channel correction factor,
Romisch

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Results are presented and discussed in Section 6 for the four


ships. Finally, the last section provides some conclusions.

2. Channel and ship parameters

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Fig. 2 Ship transiting Gaillard Cut in Panama Canal

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This validation exercise involves field measurements (Daggett &


Hewlett 1998a, 1998b) made in the Gaillard Cut section of the
Panama Canal (Fig. 1) in December 1997 and April 1998 using the
Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS). The Gaillard Cut
(Fig. 2) is a typical canal cross-section and stretches from
Culebra to Bas Obispo, a distance of approximately 9.1 km from
station location 1670 to 1970 (in hundreds of feet). The channel
width for all transits was 152 m. Ankudinov et al. (2000) reported
that the minimum water depths in the center 91.4-m-section of the
canal were 13.6 to 15 m in the 1997 study and 12.4 to 13.7 m in the
1998 study. Additional details on average depths and static UKC
are presented for the individual ships. The DGPS measurements
were made using dual-frequency equipment mounted at three points
on each ship (bow and port and starboard bridge wings). The vertical accuracy levels were on the order of 1 to 5 cm. According to
Dr. Daggett (personal communication), a larger source of error or
uncertainty is measurement of water levels and depth.
Four of the ships from the 1997 and 1998 studies were selected
for comparison. Table 1 lists the parameters for these vessels that
included a Panamax tanker (Elbe), Panamax bulk carrier (Global
Challenger), Panamax containership (Majestic Maersk), and containership (OOCL Fair). These four ships represent 2978 individual squat comparisons with measured DGPS data. The ships are
grouped in Table 1 in alphabetical order and by trim location at
the bow or stern.
Figure 3 shows the ship speeds through the Gaillard Cut. All of
the ships were traveling northward from the Pacific to the Atlantic
Ocean or from right to left in this figure. When calculating ship
squat, one wants to avoid acceleration and deceleration. These
transits obviously have some periods with nonsteady ship speeds
as a result of maneuvering concerns and bends in the channel
(there are four bends in this section of the Panama Canal) but are
included in the averages. The Elbe had the smallest ship speeds
because it was somewhat overloaded for the drought conditions in
April 1998 and was required to go slower for the shallower depths

and UKC. The Majestic Maersk has the largest ship speeds and the
most variation in speed.

3. Beck, Newman, and Tuck/Channel Analysis and


Design Evaluation Tool numerical model

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The BNT potential flow program by Beck, Newman, and Tuck


(1975) is the default option for predicting underway sinkage and
trim in CADET. Although included with and loosely coupled to
CADET, BNT is completely independent and standalone. Because
channel geometry can vary from reach to reach, CADET supports
the ability to define multiple sets of sinkage and trim data sets for
the same ship and loading condition.
The BNT sinkage and trim prediction program is based on early
work by Tuck (1966, 1967) investigating the dynamics of a slender ship in shallow water at various speeds for an infinitely wide
channel and for a finite width channel such as a canal. Tucks
original formula has been successfully used for tankers for many
years. This work was expanded to include a typical dredged
channel with a finite-width inner channel of a certain depth and
an infinitely wide outside channel of shallower depth by Beck,
Newman, and Tuck (1975).
Figure 4 is a schematic of the simplified channel cross-section
used in BNT. In addition to the automatically specified inside
channel depth, h, the user has the option to include the channel
width, W, and outside channel depth, hOut. The value of hOut
remains the same for all h values. One restriction to BNT is that
the sides of the channel are fixed as vertical.

Fig. 1 Gaillard Cut in Panama Canal


MARCH 2013

JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

Table 1 Ship parameters for Panama Canal study

Ship ID

Lpp

Tfp

Tap

Vk

Location

Date

(m)

(m)

(m)

(m)

CB

(kt)

T
B
C
C

B
B
S
S

1998
1997
1997
1998

222.0
216.0
284.7
227.0

32.2
32.3
32.2
32.2

11.3
11.7
11.8
9.8

11.3
11.8
11.8
10.6

0.84
0.83
0.63
0.65

5 to 7
9 to 10
7 to 12
6 to 10

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Type

E
G
M
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Ship ID: E Elbe, G Global Challenger, M Majestic Maersk, O OOCL Fair; Type: T tanker, B bulk carrier, C containership; Location: B
bow, S stern; Date: 1997 December, 1998 April.

between the forward and aft perpendiculars (Fig. 5). Typically,


generic ship lines from a ship database are used and adapted for
a particular ship because ship lines are proprietary and not readily
available for newer ships.
The dynamic pressure is obtained for each depth Froude number, Fnh, by differentiating the velocity potential along the length
of the hull. The Fnh is defined as
Vs
Fnh p
gh

where g is gravitational acceleration and VS is ship speed in m/s.


The sinkage and trim predictions are obtained from the dynamic
pressure by calculating the vertical force and pitching moment,
which are translated to vertical sinkage and trim angle. Channel
depths should be the same order as the draft of the ship to satisfy
the shallow-water approximations assumed in Tuck (1966).
The BNT program numerically calculates midship sinkage, Sm,
and trim, Tr, as a function of Fnh. Because English units are used
in CADET, sinkage is measured in feet positive for downward
movement. Trim in feet is the difference between sinkage at the
bow and stern positive for bow down. The equivalent bow Sb and
stern Ss squat are given by

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In his early work, Tuck (1966) calculated the dynamic pressure


of slender ships in finite-water depth and infinite and finite-water
width by modeling the underwater area of the hull. This underwater area was defined by the 21 equally spaced stations along the
ships length. Therefore, the ships geometry file, draft, speeds,
and water depths are used in the BNT squat calculations. Within
this analysis, the fluid is assumed to be inviscid and irrotational
and the hull long and slender. Input hull definition is provided in
terms of the waterline beam and sectional area at these 21 stations

Sb Sm 0:5Tr
Ss Sm  0:5Tr

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Fig. 3 Ship speeds during Panama Canal transits. All ships were northbound, sailing from right to left

This is a simplistic representation of the squat at the bow and


stern because it assumes they are equidistant, fore and aft, from
the midpoint of the ship. An Excel spreadsheet was created from
the BNT output to iterate between water depths and ship speeds at
each measurement location.

Fig. 4 BNT channel geometry variables


4

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JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

The ship hull parameter for shallow water, PHu, was recently
modified by Ankudinov and Briggs (2009) as
!
BT
PHu 1:7CB 2 0:004C2B
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Lpp

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The ship forward speed parameter, PFnh, is given by


1:80:4Fnh

PFnh Fnh

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7
p

which is a numerical approximation to the term F2nh
1  F2nh
that is in many of the PIANC empirical squat formulas.
The water depth effects parameter, Ph/T, is defined as
Ph=T 1:0

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Fig. 5 CADET and BNT ship lines hull geometry

4. Ankudinov model

fS

h=T 2

The channel effects parameter, PCh1, for an R or C channel is


given by
p
9
PCh1 1:0 10Sh  1:51:0 Sh Sh
where the channel depth factor, Sh, is defined by

 
S
hT
Sh CB
10
h
h=T
and hT is the trench height measured from the bottom. The blockage factor S is a measure of the relative cross-sectional area of the
ship, As, to that of the channel, Ac, defined as
S

As
0:98BT

Ac Wh nh2

11

The 0.98 factor is the result of the radius on the corners of the
hull. The Ac is a projection of the channel sides to the water
surface. However, for the Panama Canal comparisons, the measured Ac was used.

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Ankudinov and Jakobsen (1996) and Ankudinov et al. (1996,


2000) proposed the MARSIM 2000 formula for maximum squat
based on Sm and Tr in shallow water. The Ankudinov method has
undergone considerable revision as new data were collected and
compared. The most recent modifications from a study of ship
squat in the St. Lawrence Seaway by Stocks, Daggett, and Page
(2002) and correspondence between Ankudinov and Briggs in
April 2009 are contained in this study. These new revisions
were programmed and documented in a technical note by Briggs
(2009). The Ankudinov formula has been used extensively in the
CHL Ship Tow Simulator.
The Ankudinov prediction is one of the most complicated formulas for predicting ship squat because it includes many empirical
factors to account for the effects of ship and channel. The restriction Fnh  0.6 is applied. The maximum ship squat, SMax, is a
function of Sm and Tr given by


Lpp Sm  0:5Tr
Sb

3
SMax
Lpp Sm 0:5Tr
Ss

0:35

12

In addition to the two parameters already described for the


midpoint sinkage equation, the Tr also includes parameter Ph/T,
coefficient KTr, and channel effect trim correction parameter PCh2
to account for the effects of the ship propellers, bulbous bow, stern
transom, and initial trim.
The vessel trim parameter Ph/T accounts for the reduction in
trim resulting from the propeller in shallow water and is defined as
h
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2:51h=T
Fnh

13

The trim coefficient, KTr, is a function of many factors and is


given by

  T

S
T
T
T
KTr CnTr
14
B  0:15KP KP  KB KTr KT1

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The ship, water depth, and channel parameters in this midpoint


sinkage equation are described subsequently. The propeller parameter KPS is defined as

0:15 single propeller
5
KPS
0:13 twin propellers
MARCH 2013

Tr 1:7PHu PFnh Ph=T KTr PCh2

Ph=T 1  e

4.1. Midpoint sinkage Sm


The Sm is defined as


Sm 1 KPS PHu PFnh Ph=T PCh1

The Tr was also recently modified by Ankudinov and Briggs


(2009) as

The SMax can be at the bow or stern depending on the value of


Tr. The negative sign is used for bow squat, Sb, and the positive
sign for stern squat, Ss.

4.2. Vessel trim

The first factor in this equation CnTr


B is the block coefficient CB
raised to the nTr power. The exponent is defined as
PCh1
CB
where Pch1 was previously defined in equation 9.
nTr 2:0 0:8

JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

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The next two factors define the propeller effect on the vessel
trim. The first factor KPS is the same as the propeller parameter for
the midpoint sinkage and the second factor is the propeller trim
parameter KPT

0:15 single propeller
T
KP
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0:20 twin propellers

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The last group of three factors define the effects of the bulbous
T
T
bow KbT, stern transom KTr
, and initial trim KT1
on the vessel trim.
T
The Kb is given by

0:1 bulbous bow
T
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Kb
0:0 no bulbous bow

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T
The KTr
is defined by
8

BTr
<
0:1
0:04
T
KTr
B
:
0:0

stern transom

18

no stern transom

5.1. Barrass
The Barrass ship squat formula has evolved and been revised at
least four times. The one in this article (Barrass 2002, 2009) is
considered the third version for both Sb and Ss. It is a function of
CB, ship speed, Vk, in knots, and channel blockage coefficient, K,
and is defined as

KCB Vk2
Sb CB > 0:7

21
Ss CB  0:7
100
If CB > 0.7, maximum squat occurs at the bow Sb. If CB  0.7,
it occurs at the stern and is equal to the stern squat, Ss. Barrass
channel coefficient, K, is based on analysis of over 600 laboratory
and prototype measurements for all three channel types. It is
defined as

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where BTr is the stern transom width and is typically equal to 0.4B,
although values as high as 0.7B have sometimes been used.
T
The KT1
is given by


Tap  Tfp
T


19
KT1
Tap Tfp

form ships with CB > 0.7 tend to squat by the bow and fine-form
ships with CB < 0.7 tend to squat by the stern. The CB 0.7 is an
even keel situation with maximum squat the same at both bow
and stern. Of course, for channel design, one is mainly interested in
the maximum squat and not necessarily whether it is at the bow or
stern. With these constraints in mind, the average PIANC values
consisted of predictions for all five PIANC formulas for bow squat
but only Barrass and Romisch for stern squat.

where Tap is the static draft at the stern or aft perpendicular and
Tfp is the static draft at the bow or forward perpendicular.
Finally, the channel effect trim correction parameter PCh2 for
both R and C channels is defined as

20

1K2

22

The limits on K are designed so that K 2 for C (also for R)


channels. The blockage factor S was previously defined. If S >
0.25 for C (also for R) channels, the value of K is set to 2 to ensure
the limits required for K.

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PCh2 1:0  5Sh

K 5:74S0:76

5. The World Association of Waterborne Transport


Infrastructure empirical formulas

5.2. Eryuzlu

where the factor Kb is a correction factor accounting for relative


channel width according to the ratio of channel width W to ship
beam B.
8
3:1
W
>
>
< 9:61
< p
B
W=B
24
Kb
>
W
>
: 1
 9:61
B
5.3. Huuska/Guliev

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MARCH 2013

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Eryuzlu, Cao, and DAgnolo (1994) developed a formula for Sb


based on laboratory experiments. Although it is usually applied to
only unrestricted (U) and restricted (R) channels, it is included in
these comparisons because the Canadian Coast Guard (2001) uses
it for ships in the St. Lawrence Seaway, a channel that is very
similar to the Panama Canal. Therefore, it is included here
although the CB constraint is technically exceeded. It is defined as


 
h2 Vs 2:289 h 2:972
p
Sb 0:298
Kb
23
T
T
gT

In 1997, PIANC (1997) included 11 empirical squat formulas in


their design guidance for deep draft entrance channels. PIANC
WG49 is updating this guidance to retain only seven formulas that
are the most appropriate and useful. Five of these squat formulas
are evaluated in this article with the main emphasis on a canal (C)
configuration. They include those of Huuska (1976), Yoshimura
(1986), Romisch (1989), Eryuzlu, Cao, and DAgnolo (1994), and
Barrass (2009). The ICORELS formula was not used in this application because it was not intended for canal cross-sections and is
also very similar to the Huuska formula. The original Tuck formula was also not used because it is represented by the BNT
numerical formulation using potential flow theory.
Briggs (2006) programmed these formulas in FORTRAN programs and Briggs et al. (2010b) summarized and illustrated them
with examples. Although some constraints and limitations for
these formulas are exceeded, they are included in the results for
this article because this seems to be the accepted practice within
the deep-draft navigation community to relax these constraints
where reasonable.
All of these PIANC formulas give predictions of bow squat Sb,
but only the Romisch method gives predictions for stern squat, Ss,
for all channel types. Barrass gives Ss for unrestricted channels and
for canals and restricted channels depending on the value of CB.
According to Barrass (2009), the value of CB determines whether
the maximum squat is at the bow or stern. Barrass assumes that full-

The next empirical squat formula was developed by Guliev


(1971) and Huuska (1976) and is given by
Sb

2:4CB BT
F2nh
p
Ks
Lpp
1  F2nh

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JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

The channel width correction factor Ks is defined as



7:45s1 0:76 s1 > 0:03
Ks
1:0
s1  0:03

6. Validation results
26

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where the corrected blockage factor s1 S for C channels. Huuska


defined other values for s1 for the other two channel types, but
they are not presented here because we are only concerned with
C channels in this article.

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5.4. Romisch

Romisch (1989) developed formulas for both Sb and Ss from


physical model experiments for a C channel. The Romisch squat is
defined as

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Sb ; Ss CV CF KDT T

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The factors in this equation are correction factors for ship


speed, CV, ship shape, CF, and squat at critical speed, KDT, defined as
#
4
 2 "
Vs
Vs
CV 8
 0:5 0:0625
28
Vcr
Vcr

Lpp
1:0

Bow

29

fS

CF

8

< 10BCB 2

Stern

p
KDT 0:155 h=T

30

6.1. Uncertainty analysis


Each of the parameters in the prediction of ship squat has inherent uncertainties. The channel depth, h, is assumed to have no bias
or variability because it is a deterministic parameter. Uncertainty in
the static and dynamic drafts, T, comes from the estimation of the
draft at the pier, from the draft marks, and the sinkage and trim
estimate, S. According to Kopp and Silver (2004), the error band in
the static draft is assumed to be known within a range of  1%. The
critical points of the bow, stern, and bilge are assumed to have an
error band within 4.5% of the actual value at the bow and stern and
1.5% of the actual value at the bilge. The sinkage estimate is based
on an analytical or empirical method from experimental results.
The uncertainty in the sinkage comes from the scatter of the data
in model tests and how well the calculated results fit the model test
results. This gives a variability of the sinkage parameter of approximately 1% with no bias. Of course, the ship squat empirical estimates are based on many different parameters that are not included
in every formula. Even if included, they are weighted differently
in each formula.

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Critical ship speed, Vcr, for a canal is a function of wave celerity, C, and a channel shape correction factor, KC, defined as




p
p Arc cos1  S 1:5
Vcr CKC ghm 2 cos
31

3
3

As mentioned previously, only five of the PIANC formulas were


included in this study. Although all five can predict bow squat, only
the Barrass and Romisch formulas were appropriate for stern squat
predictions for canal channels. Therefore, only these two predictions were used to calculate the PIANC average for stern squat.
Depending on the value of CB, only bow or stern squat predictions
were calculated as dictated by the constraints of each formulation.
Again, the PIANC values were used to calculate an average bow
(five averages) or stern (two averages) squat prediction at each
location for each ship to compare with the measured DGPS values.

where the mean water depth, hm, is a function of the projected


width at the top of the channel, WTop, defined as
AC
AC

WTop W 2nh

32

5.5. Yoshimura

RS

where the enhanced ship speed term, Ve, is a function of ship


speed, Vs, in m/s given by
Ve

Vs
1  S

34

SP; j
SM; j

35

The bias BS is given by

Bs SP; j  SM; j

36

where SP,j is the predicted squat at the bow or stern at location


j and SM,j is the measured squat at location j.
Three better error metrics include the root mean square error
(RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (R), and the mean absolute error (MAE). They are defined as
v
uN
u 
u ( SP; j  SM; j 2
tj1
37
RMSE
N

h
rc

The last squat formula was developed by Yoshimura (1986) and


included by the Overseas Coastal Area Development Institute of
Japan (2009) as part of Japans Design Standard for Fairways in
Japan. It was enhanced by Ohtsu et al. (2006) to include predictions for C (also for R) channels. It is defined as
"


 #

1:5T
BCB
15T BCB 3 Ve 2
Sb
0:7
33

Lpp
Lpp
g
h
h

MARCH 2013

ea
es

However, because the hm was provided for the Panama Canal


data, that value was used in the Romisch formula.

Statistical and error metrics used to quantify uncertainty in the


predictions are described in this section. The first two metrics are
the means and the standard deviations for the measured and predicted squat data.
Two simplistic goodness-of-fit measures to characterize the agreement between the model squat predictions and measured DGPS
data are the ratio RS between predicted and measured data and the
bias or difference between the two data sets. The RS is defined as

hm

6.2. Error metrics

JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

CovSP ; SM
R p
Var SP Var SM

 
 
SP; j  SP SM; j  SM
ss
N
N




( SP; j  SP 2 ( SM; j  SM 2
N

Jo

(
j1

j1

38

j1

ur
MAE

( j SP; j  SM; j j
j1

39

lo

na

N


where SP is the mean of the predicted squat, SM is the mean of the
measured squat, and N is the number of measurement points.
Values of RS > 1.0 indicate overprediction, RS < 1.0 underprediction, and RS 1.0 perfect match. Similarly, values of BS >
0.0 indicate overprediction, BS < 0.0 underprediction, and BS
0.0 a perfect match. The RMSE and MAE measure the actual
Table 2 Mean and standard deviations for measured and
predicted squat data
No.
1015

633

649

681

Total

DGPS


S
s

S
s

S
s

S
s

0.42
0.083
1.11
0.132
0.84
0.307
0.58
0.099

BNT

Ankudinov

PIANC

0.27
0.052
0.76
0.045
0.45
0.172
0.45
0.077

0.54
0.073
1.33
0.057
0.74
0.201
0.59
0.058

0.35
0.055
1.00
0.048
0.74
0.318
0.55
0.053

Figures 6 to 9 show time series comparisons of the BNT,


Ankudinov, and PIANC squat predictions to the measured DGPS
values for the four ships along the Gaillard Cut. The top plot
shows the RS for these three predictors at each location. The
bottom plot shows the measured and predicted bow or stern squat
for each ship. A spline smoothing was applied to each of the three
predictors to illustrate the general trend of the data. The degree of
smoothness was automatically selected using cross validation of
the data. The entire data set was used in all the statistical and
metric calculations, however.
In lieu of error bars on the plots, the statistical and error
metrics are listed in Tables 2 to 5 to improve readability of the
plots. Table 2 compares the squat means and standard deviations
for the measured DGPS and predicted BNT, Ankudinov, and
PIANC data. Table 3 lists the minimum, average, and maximum
values of RS for BNT, Ankudinov, and PIANC squat predictions
for each ship. Table 4 lists minimum, average, and maximum BS
between measured and predicted bow and stern squat for each
ship. Finally, Table 5 lists the RMSE, R, and MAE statistics for
each of the four ships.

2978

hi

Statistic

6.3. Squat comparisons

fS

Ship ID

differences between the two data sets. Although unbounded,


smaller values indicate better agreement. The R error statistic
provides an indication of the correlation that may exist between
data sets. It is bounded between 1 (perfect negative correlation)
and 1 (perfect positive correlation). It is an indication of linearity
between the data sets because an uncorrelated value of R 0 can
indicate a nonlinear or random scatter relationship between data
sets. Therefore, small values of R indicate that the data sets are
uncorrelated, but this does not mean they are unrelated, just not
linearly related.

6.3.1. Elbe tanker. Figure 6 shows the bow squat for the Elbe
Panamax tanker. The average water depth ranged between 13.0


S Sample mean or average; s sample standard deviation.

Table 3 Ratios of predicted to measured squat

BNT

Ankudinov

No. of Squat
Measurements

Minimum
Ratio

Average
Ratio

Maximum
Ratio

Minimum
Ratio

E
G
M
O

1015
633
649
681

0.45
0.53
0.30
0.54

0.64
0.69
0.54
0.78

0.84
0.90
0.89
1.16

0.96
0.96
0.46
0.78

Average
Ratio
1.29
1.21
0.91
1.04

Maximum
Ratio

Minimum
Ratio

Average
Ratio

Maximum
Ratio

1.78
1.61
1.70
1.48

0.60
0.72
0.45
0.70

0.83
0.92
0.89
0.96

1.11
1.21
1.62
1.33

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Ship
ID

PIANC

Ratio RS predicted squat divided by measured squat: 1.0 is perfect match; < 1.0 is underprediction; > 1.0 is overprediction.
Table 4 Bias between measured and predicted squat
Ankudinov (m)

PIANC (m)

h
rc

BNT (m)

Ship ID

No. of squat
measurements

Minimum

Average

Maximum

Minimum

Average

Maximum

Minimum

Average

Maximum

E
G
M
O

1015
633
649
681

0.28
0.65
1.62
0.35

0.16
0.35
0.39
0.13

0.04
0.08
0.05
0.07

0.02
0.05
1.28
0.17

0.11
0.22
0.1
0.01

0.22
0.48
0.29
0.19

0.21
0.38
1.01
0.21

0.08
0.10
0.10
0.04

0.03
0.17
0.41
0.14

Bias BS predicted squatmeasured squat: 0.0 is perfect match; < 0.0 is underprediction; > 0.0 is overprediction.
8

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JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

Table 5 Error statistics between measured and predicted squat


Ship ID
E

Statistic

Units

1015

RMSE
R
MAE
RMSE
R
MAE
RMSE
R
MAE
RMSE
R
MAE

m
m

m
m

m
m

Jo

No.

633

649

ur
O

681

BNT
0.17
0.75
0.16
0.37
0.41
0.35
0.44
0.84
0.39
0.15
0.70
0.13

Ankudinov
0.13
0.77
0.12
0.25
0.37
0.22
0.21
0.82
0.15
0.07
0.75
0.06

PIANC
0.09
0.76
0.08
0.16
0.40
0.13
0.21
0.83
0.16
0.08
0.74
0.06

na

Total

2978

RMSE root mean square error; R Pearson correlation coefficient;


MAE mean absolute error.

6.3.2. Global Challenger bulk carrier. Figure 7 shows the bow


squat for the Global Challenger Panamax bulk carrier. This ship
was trimmed 12 cm by the stern (i.e., deeper draft at the stern).
The water depth ranged between 12.9 and 13.2 m with an average

static UKC of 1.4 m. Table 2 shows the mean SM 1:11 m for
the DGPS data (largest of the ships) with a standard deviation

sM 0.132 m. For the BNT predictions, the SP 0:76 m, an
average underprediction of 35 cm with a sP 0.045 m. The RS
ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 with an average underprediction of 0.7
times the measured bow squat. The BS ranged from an
underprediction of 65 cm to an overprediction of 8 cm with an
average underprediction of 35 cm. The RMSEBNT 0.37 m and
MAEBNT 0.35 m were twice as large as the Elbe values, showing a weak linear correlation of only RBNT 0.41. For the

Ankudinov predictions, the SP 1:33 m, an average overprediction of 22 cm with a sP 0.057 m. The RS varied from 1.0
to 1.6 times the measured squat with an average overprediction
of 1.2. The BS ranged from underpredictions of 5 cm to
overpredictions of 48 cm with an average overprediction of
22 cm. The RMSEAnk 0.25 m and MAEAnk 0.22 m were
twice as large as the Elbe values, showing the weakest correlation
of only RAnk 0.37 for all ships. Finally, for the PIANC

hi

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lo

and 13.2 m with an average static UKC of 1.8 m. Table 2 shows



the mean SM 0:42 m for the DGPS data with a standard
deviation sM 0.083 m. Comparing the BNT predictions, the

SP 0:27 m, an average underprediction of 15 cm, with a
sP 0.052 m. The RS ranged from 0.5 to 0.8 with an average
underprediction of 0.6 times the measured bow squat. The BS
ranged from underpredictions of 28 to 4 cm with an average
underprediction of 16 cm. The RMSEBNT 0.17 m and MAEBNT
0.16 m were relatively small, showing a strong correlation of

RBNT 0.75. For the Ankudinov predictions, the SP 0:54 m,
an average overprediction of 12 cm, with a sP 0.073 m. The RS
ranged from 1.0 to overpredictions up to 1.8 with an average of
1.3 times the measured squat. The BS ranged from underprediction
of 2 cm to overpredictions of 22 cm with an average overprediction of 11 cm. Again, the RMSEAnk 0.13 m and MAEAnk 0.12 m
were relatively small, showing a strong correlation of RAnk 0.77.

Finally, for the PIANC predictions, the SP 0:35 m, an average
underprediction of 7 cm with a sP 0.055 m. The RS ranged from

0.6 to 1.1 with an average underprediction of 0.8. The BS ranged


from an underprediction of 21 cm to an overprediction of 3 cm
with an average underprediction of 8 cm. The RMSEPIANC
0.09 m and MAEPIANC 0.08 m were very small, again showing
a strong correlation of RPIANC 0.76.

In general, the SP and the BS values tended to confirm each
other. The BNT predictions were smaller than measured values
but followed the same trends and were closer to the PIANC
predictions. The Ankudinov formula overpredicted by 30% and
12 cm, whereas the PIANC underpredicted by 20% and 9 cm. The
PIANC had the best error metrics followed by Ankudinov and
BNT. The Ankudinov and BNT predictions were approximately
50% and 100% larger than the PIANC values, although relatively
small maximum differences of 8 cm.

h
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R
Fig. 6 Panamax Elbe tanker values for (a) ratio RS and (b) measured and predicted bow squat Sb. Ship northbound, sailing from right to left.
DGPS black open circle; BNT blue solid line; Ankudinov red dash line; PIANC green dotdash. Spline fit for predictors
MARCH 2013

JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

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lo

Fig. 7 Panamax Global Challenger bulk carrier values for (a) ratio RS and (b) measured and predicted bow squat Sb. Ship northbound, sailing from
right to left. DGPS black open circle; BNT blue solid line; Ankudinov red dash line; PIANC green dotdash. Spline fit for predictors

10% and 9 cm underprediction. For design purposes, overprediction is more conservative and potentially safer. The error metrics
for the Global Challenge were twice as large as the Elbe with the
worst correlation of all the ships. However, the worst RMSEBNT
0.37 m for the BNT predictions was not a huge overprediction.

fS


predictions, the SP 1:00 m, an average underprediction of
11 cm with a sP 0.048 m. The RS were closer to the measured
bow squat, especially above the location at station 1850. They
ranged from 0.7 to 1.2 times the measured squat with an average
underprediction of 0.9. The BS ranged from an underprediction of
38 cm to an overprediction of 17 cm with an average underprediction of 10 cm. The RMSEPIANC 0.16 m and MAEPIANC
0.13 m were relatively small, again showing a very weak correlation of only RPIANC 0.40.
Again, the S P and the BS values tended to confirm each other.
The BNT underpredicted the measured squat but followed the
same trends as the two other predictors. In general, the Ankudinov
formula overpredicted and BNT and PIANC underpredicted bow
squat. The PIANC formulas overpredicted the measured squat for
a short section from location 1920 to 1970. Thus, the Ankudinov
formula averaged 20% and 21 cm overprediction and the PIANC

hi

6.3.3. Majestic Maersk containership. As mentioned previously


in Section 6, according to Barrass (2009), maximum squat will
occur at the bow for a ship with a CB > 0.7 and at the stern for one
with a CB < 0.7. Therefore, bow squat was reported for the first
two ships previously discussed. The next two ships will illustrate
squat by the stern because they have a CB < 0.7. Thus, the average
PIANC value used in the plots is based on the average of only the
Barrass and Romisch predictions.
Figure 8 illustrates the stern squat for the Majestic Maersk
Panamax containership. The water depth ranged between 12.9

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R
Fig. 8 Panamax Majestic Maersk containership values for (a) ratio RS and (b) measured and predicted stern squat Ss. Ship northbound, sailing
from right to left. DGPS black open circle; BNT blue solid line; Ankudinov red dash line; PIANC green dotdash. Spline fit for predictors
10

MARCH 2013

JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

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lo

Fig. 9 OOCL Fair containership values for (a) ratio RS and (b) measured and predicted stern squat Ss. Ship northbound, sailing from right to left.
DGPS black open circle; BNT blue solid line; Ankudinov red dash line; PIANC green dotdash. Spline fit for predictors

stern squat by 10% with minimum and maximum predictions


about the same.
6.3.4. OOCL Fair containership. Figure 9 shows the stern squat
for the OOCL Fair containership because CB < 0.7. This ship had
the most trim with a value of 0.8 m by the stern. The water depth
ranged between 13.0 and 13.2 m with an average static UKC of

2.9 m. Table 2 shows that the mean SM 0:58 m for the DGPS
data (largest of the ships) with a standard deviation sM 0.099 m.

For the BNT predictions, the SP 0:45 m, an average
underprediction of 13 cm, with a sP 0.077 m. The RS ranged
from 0.5 to 1.2 with an average underprediction of 0.8 times
the measured squat. The BS ranged from underpredictions of
35 to 7 cm with an average underprediction of 13 cm. The
RMSEBNT 0.15 m and MAEBNT 0.13 m were the smallest of
the four ships with a strong linear correlation of RBNT 0.70. For

the Ankudinov predictions, the SP 0:59 m, a nearly identical
value that overpredicts by 1 cm with a sP 0.058 m. The RS
ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 times the measured stern squat with an
average ratio of 1.0 (near exact match with measured data). The
BS ranged from underprediction of 17 cm and overpredictions
of 19 cm with an average of 1 cm (near exact match). The
RMSEAnk 0.07 m and MAEAnk 0.06 m were the smallest of
the four ships with a strong linear correlation of RAnk 0.75. The
Ankudinov predictions with the smallest RMSE and MAE errors
were the best fit of the three predictors for the OOCL Fair.

Finally, for the PIANC predictions, the SP 0:55 m, an average
underprediction of 3 cm, with a sP 0.053 m. The RS varied from
underpredictions of 0.7 to overpredictions of 1.3 with an average
of 1.0 (near exact match) times the measured stern squat. The BS
ranged from an underprediction of 21 cm to an overprediction of
14 cm with an average underprediction of 4 cm. The RMSEPIANC
0.08 m and MAEPIANC 0.06 m were similar to the Ankudinov
predictions with a strong linear correlation of RPIANC 0.74.

Again, the SP and the BS values were nearly identical. The BNT
underpredicted the measured data, but not by as much as some of
the other ships. The Ankudinov predictions were about the same
as the PIANC predictions in this case and both excellent.

hi

fS

and 13.2 m with an average static UKC of 1.3 m. Table 2 shows



that the mean SM 0:84 m for the DGPS data (largest of the
ships) with a standard deviation sM 0.307 m (largest of the

four ships). For the BNT predictions, the SP 0:45 m, an
average underprediction of 39 cm, with a sP 0.172 m. The RS
ranged from 0.3 to 0.9 with an average underprediction slightly
larger than half of the measured squat. The BS ranged from an
underprediction of 5 cm to 1.6 m (station 1940.73) with an
average underprediction of 39 cm. The extreme underprediction
at station 1940.73 is probably an error in the measured data
because they all appear to look unusually large in this section
of the canal from 1940 to 1950. The RMSEBNT 0.44 m and
MAEBNT 0.39 m were largest of the four ships, but had
the strongest correlation of RBNT 0.84. For the Ankudinov

predictions, the SP 0:74 m, an average overprediction of
10 cm, with a sP 0.201 m. The RS ranged from 0.5 to 1.7 times
the measured stern squat with an average underprediction of
0.9. The BS ranged from a worst underprediction of 1.3 m (station location 1940) to an overprediction of 29 cm with an average underprediction of 10 cm. The RMSEAnk 0.21 m and
MAEAnk 0.15 m were relatively small and second only to
the Elbe with the strongest correlation of RAnk 0.82. Finally,

for the PIANC predictions, the SP 0:74 m, an average
underprediction of 10 cm, with a sP 0.318 m. The RS ranged
from 0.4 to 1.6 with an average underprediction of 0.9 times
the measured squat. The BS ranged from an underprediction
of 1.0 m to overprediction of 41 cm with an average underprediction of 10 cm. The RMSEPIANC 0.21 m and MAEPIANC
0.16 m were similar to the Ankudinov predictions with the strongest correlation of RPIANC 0.83.

The SP and the BS values confirmed one another because
they were identical. Although the BNT model underpredicted
the measured values, it showed the same trends as the measured data and the other predictors. From station 1670 to 1850,
both Ankudinov and PIANC tended to underpredict stern squat
with Ankudinov predictions slightly better. Around station
1880 to 1960, the PIANC formula overpredicted stern squat.
In general, both Ankudinov and PIANC tended to underpredict

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JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

11

6.4. Discussion

Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the Headquarters, US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources (IWR), the Naval Surface
Warfare Center, Carderock Division, and TRANSAS for authorizing publication of this article. It was prepared as part of the
Improved Ship Simulation work unit in the Navigation Systems
Research Program (CHL) and the IWR NETS program. This article is dedicated to Dr. Vladimir Ankudinov, who died March
2012. We acknowledge the assistance of the CHL Prototype
Measurements Branch and Larry Daggett, Waterway Simulation
Technology, for providing channel, ship, and DGPS data. We also
thank the reviewers for their useful suggestions.

fS

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Jo

On average for the ships in this Panama Canal data set, the
BNT underpredicts squat by 30% to 35% for the bow and 20%
to 45% for stern squat. The Ankudinov formula overpredicts
squat by 25% for the bow and underpredicts by 5% for the
stern. The PIANC underpredicts squat by 15% for both bow
and stern. All of the 2978 data points were used in the comparisons although there are a lot of turns or bends in this section of
canal. Ships experience acceleration, deceleration, and roll
while turning, which affect squat but is not accounted for in
these squat predictors.
Portions of the Majestic Maersk measurements look to be
inordinately large from station 1940 to 1950. According to
Dr. Daggett, who participated in field measurements of the Majestic Maersk, they conducted an acceleration test in this range
starting from a dead in the water condition to full ahead to
see is if such an acceleration would cause extreme squat at the
stern as the ships wheel dug into the water. They observed a
steadily increasing heel to starboard, which affected both ship
squat and UKC. The ship heeled over three to five times and rolled
up to a 3 heel. He also noted that there was quite a variation in
ship speed for this ship throughout the measurements. These
unusual ship responses would explain some of the observed discrepancies between measurements and predictions.
These comparisons indicate that the Ankudinov formulas are
conservative in most instances because they tend to overpredict
ship squat. The BNT predictions are generally lower than the
measured values. Possible reasons for the smaller BNT predictions might be that the actual ship lines were not used as a result
of proprietary issues. The use of generic ship lines, although
appropriate, can misrepresent the water line beam and sectional
area curves of the ships during transit. A sensitivity study by Kopp
(2011) showed that there can be a 3% to 8% variation in predicted
squat as a result of 10% variations in fore and aft sectional areas.
BNT has shown better agreement with US Navy projects when
actual ship lines and measured model-scale data are available for
comparison. As previously mentioned, Briggs et al. (2010a) found
good agreement between BNT and PIANC predictions for a range
of ship and channel types. Additionally, the BNT results have
been found to be comparable to those produced by more expensive higher-order computational fluid dynamics predictions.
Therefore, variations in the generic ship lines that are most representative of the ships in this study could have a significant effect
on the predicted squat. It should be noted that CADET is not
restricted to using the BNT model results because the user can
always import other specific or model test squat data. The PIANC
predictions are based on averages of all five of the PIANC formulas for bow squat but only two (Barrass and Romisch) for stern
squat. In some instances, one or more of the PIANC formulas
might match measured data much better than the averages.

stern squat by factors of 0.67 and 0.66, respectively. The


Ankudinov formulas overpredicted measured bow squat by a
factor of 1.25 and underpredicted stern squat by a factor of
0.98. PIANC underpredicted bow and stern squat by 0.93 and
0.88, respectively. Thus, the BNT predictions were generally
smaller than the measurements but showed the same trends as
the other predictors. The Ankudinov predictions are slightly
larger than the PIANC predictions, although the Ankudinov predictions match canal channel types like the Panama Canal better
than PIANC. Thus, all three predictors appear to give reasonable
predictions of ship squat and can be used with confidence in
deep draft channel design.

References

hi

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MARCH 2013

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This article has compared BNT, Ankudinov, and PIANC ship


squat predictions with DGPS measurements of four ships in the
Gaillard Cut section of the Panama Canal. These ships included a
Panamax containership, Panamax bulk carrier, Panamax tanker,
and a containership. In general, the BNT underpredicted bow and

7. Conclusion

JOURNAL OF SHIP RESEARCH

David Taylor Model Basin, Carderock Division, Naval Surface Warfare


Center, Potomac, MD.
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