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WELCOME TO THE LAND OF FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF NEPAL:

TRANSFORMATION FOR NEW VISIONS, MISSIONS AND NATIONAL GOALS

A GENERAL POLITICO-SECURITY SITUATION ANALYSIS REPORT

Raj K PANDEY, MBS, MA (Rural Development)


GPO BOX: 19862
Jawalakhel, Lalitpur
KAHTMANDU, NEPAL
Mobile: 977-01-98510 86884
rajkpandey2000@yahoo.com, rajkpandey2000@hotmail.com, rajkpandey2000@gmail.com

2008

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Security Highlights

 25 May, Saptari, A 12 year old boy died in a bomb blast at Giridhari Rice Mile, who was
son of the mill proprietor, located in Kalyanpur VDC. Police informed that the blast was
triggered by some group that had tried to extort money from the mill owner.

 25 May, Nawalparashi, Locals brought vehicular movement pf the Mahendra Highway to


a halt saying that the transport entrepreneurs raised bus fair on their own.

 26 May, Kathamandu, The Administration Office prohibited rallies, mass meeting, sit-ins
and protest programs in different sensitive places of the capital ahead of the CA meeting.

 26 May, Snakhuwasabha, Madimulkharka, Maoist/YCL allegedly abducted and beat up a


UML supporter accusing him of not voting for Maoist in CA poll.

 26 May, Chitawan, Narayanghat, Agitating students clashed with police and vandalized
dozens of vehicles along the East-West Highway. The enraged students protesting
against the government and concerned authorities for not providing text books vandalized
the District Education Office, Regional Office of Janak Education Materials Center and
about five dozen vehicles.

 26 May, Sunsari, Itahari, MPRF cadres padlocked its Office demanding the resignation
from its coordinator for discrimination in the selection of CA members under PR system.

 26 May, Rajbiraj, Maoist/YCL cadres allegedly vandalized the Office of Human Rights
and Community Development of Nepal. YCL cadres went on a rampage after alleging
that the office had not followed its own rules and regulation while advertising for vacancy.

 27 May, Kathmandu, An unidentified group detonated three socket bombs in the capital,
two of them near southern gate of BICC at Baneswor and another outside the house of
civil society advocate -- Dr. Denendra Raj Pandey - - at Bisalnagar. Ranabir Sena, an
underground outfit, owned up the blast in a pamphlet left in the place.

 27 May, Kathmandu, The National Human Rights Commission informed that the security
forces, Maoists and unidentified gangs killed 256 persons in a year (Mid April 2007-
2008).

 27 May, Kathmandu, Visiting United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South
and Central Asia Affairs met Maoist Chairman Prachanda which is the first meeting of
any high ranking US official after US Ambassador met him a few weeks ago.

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 27 May, Kathmandu, The Nepal Electricity Authority cut the weekly load shedding period
from 21 to 9 hours in some of the districts including Kathmandu valley.

 28 May, Makawanpur, Bharta VDC, At least nine persons with seven children died due to
fever and diarrhea in remote areas in the last one month.

 28 May, Kathmandu, The most wanted and Independent CA member, representation


from Rautahat-1 attended the swearing in ceremony though he is in the police list of most
wanted criminals activities including causing serial bomb explosion in Kathmandu.

 28 May, Sunsari, Dharan, A bomb disposal squad of the Nepal Army defused a bomb
which was found near a local school. Locals found two street children toying with the
bomb and informed police who later called the Nepal Army bomb squad.

 28 May, Kathmandu, Ratnapark, One person was injured when unidentified gang
detonated a socket bomb where civil society had staged a demonstration for republic.

 28 May, Ghangadi, A group of Maoist cadres attacked an editor and publisher of local
newspaper, at the office complex of District Administrative Office. He was beaten up by
second time over a news report on embezzlement of local temple funds.

 28 May, Myagdi, Beghola VDC, A local 65 year old person has been sheltering from the
past few days following an alleged assault and a death threat from the Maoist.

 28 May, Sarlahi, A gang of seven persons in combat dress kidnapped a 13 year boy. The
armed gang who came to house in guise of security personnel, also looted Rs. 16,000.

 28 May, Rautahat, A two day boadh called by Tarai Army affected the normal life in the
district which was called demanding in ensuring the rights of self-determination.

 29 May, Kailali, Dhangadi, At least there persons were killed while five others wee injured
after police opened fire at a group of protestors when the latter attempted to break into
District Administration Office. Following the incident, local administration clamped an
indefinite curfew. The situation turned violent as the initial conflict between Maoist vs
Local Journalist went worst.

 29 May, Kathmandu, At least three separate incidents of minor bomb explosions took
place in the capital in Wednesday in Ratnapark and outside BICC hall. One suspected
person has been arrested and pamphlet belong to Ranabir Sena was found in the place.

 30 May, Kathmandu, The United Nations, the US and India have congratulated the
declaration of a republic in Nepal and congratulated the people on this occasion.

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 30 May, Kathmandu, Tharu community announced the launching of a series of protest
programs against what it said was the provision the Interim Constitution to regard
Tharuhat Terai as Madhesh region.

 30 May, Bardiya, Gulariaya, Police charged batons at local entrepreneurs while they
were trying to obstruct vehicular movement in the course calling for an indefinite general
strike. local Chamber of Industry and Commence has called for an indefinite general
strike to protest the confiscation of a tractor by the police on a tax evasion charge.

 30 May, Karhmandu, Durbarmarg, At least 12 persons, including three policemen, were


injured in clashes with the police. The police intervened when demonstrators, who were
demanding king to vacate palace earliest and to clime atop the statue of king Mahendra.

 30 May, Mugu, Three persons who had gone to the alpine meadows to collect the local
medicinal herb died after being swept away by an avalanche.

 30 May, Bara, The Nepal Workers’ and Peasants’ Party condemned the bombing of the
house belong to its Constituency number-3 candidate.

 30 May, Bara, Kalaiya, A house was destroyed after fire engulfed it on night and as police
informed that some minority losses have been taken place due to incident.

 30 May, Sankhuwasabha, Makalu VDC, Three persons were held on suspicion of murder
of a trekking porter. The accused were also porters and accompanied to carry the loads
to the Makalu base camp in the district.

 30 May, Parsha, Birgunj, A homeopathic doctor was critically injured when an unidentified
gang shot at him while he was returning home from his clinic.

 30 May, JTMM-J welcome the declaration of the nation as a federal democratic republic
and instructed its members to celebrate it.

 30 May, Bara, An unidentified gang detonated a socket bomb in a house belonging to a


local which caused minor damage. Earlier, a gang had planted a bomb in front of local
hotel which was defused by a squad of Nepal Army.

 31 May, Kathmandu, An unidentified group detonated a socket bomb near the Maoist
meet at Tundikhel in the Capital.

 31 May, Bara, Lahan, Cadres of People’s Libration Revolutionary Group (PLRG) shot
dead a local of Robahi VDC.

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 31 May, Parasha, Birgunj, A group of armed assailants shot at Businessman, Chairman
of retailers’ association in Birgunj.

 31 May, Dailekh, Chairman of Dhailekh 3 chapter of the Nepali Congress, was found
dead who had gone to attend a program organized to celebrate declaration of a republic.

 31 May, Bara, Abhav VDC, An unidentified gang stabbed to dad a 30 year old near the
Jamudi bridge in the district.

 31 May, Saptari, Rajbiraj, An armed gang abducted a local 26 years man from his house
in Simrahasingiyaum VDC.

 31 May, Parasha, Birgunj, A police team arrested an Indian and Nepali Police Sub-
inspector from a restaurant for a tip off.

 1 June, Rautahat, Cadres of Terai Army detonated a powerful bomb at Bank Chowk, a
busy marketplace of Barahathawa VDC. The cylinder bomb which was hung to a bicycle
went off with a loud bang.

 1 June, Udaypur, The activists of Kirat Janabadi Workers Party, underground outfit,
allegedly detonated a bomb at Beltar VDC office.

 1 June, Lahan, JTMM-Jawala Singh claimed that some people sacked him from his
group were plotting to kill him.

 2 June, Kathmandu, CPN/Maoist Chairman Prachanda warned his party would quite the
government and launch street protests if it was not allowed to form a new government
within a few days.

 2 June, Rautahat, At least eight persons were injured when a bomb went off at Land
Reforms Office at district headquarters.

 2 June, CA Member, Babba Singh, who is also featured in the most wanted list of Nepali
Police, submitted himself to the District Court.

 2 June, Lahan, One person died while as many as 50 others in Phulbariya VDC-7 has
fallen sick due to diarrhea outbreak.

 2 June, Butawal, Police arrested two persons from Bara while they were looting a local
businessman by the locally made guns.

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 2 June, Tanahun, Bodyguard of the Tanahun DSP attacked local doctors and other
health assistant of the Damauli Hospital.

 2 June, Police arrested four youth on charge of assaulting the local on quarrel of
disputes.

 2 July, Kathmandu, Former king is likely to leave the palace by issuing a public notice.
A.1 Political Issues

1. The former king’s Shah Dynasty died after 239 years in unified Nepal. Many may not
believed their eyes that its demise has come- much sooner than they had imagined. The
nation has observed a public holiday, but not to mourn for the monarchy. On the contrary,
the Nepali people celebrated the occasion with great fanfare and festivity. Hundreds of
thousands of citizens poured out on the streets of Kathmandu and the rest of the country
to rejoice. Fireworks lit up the sky, the crowds sang songs and chanted slogans in a gay
and triumphant mood, and the houses were illuminated. None of those who had sworn
their loyalty to the monarchy till the other day came out to speak out for it. So discredited
had the royalty become that even the former monarch and his supporters could not
perhaps have fathomed its depth.

2. The hereditary reign has become history and it is gone for good cause of nation.
With the fall of the monarchy, the principal symbol of feudalism has fallen. But feudalism
still pervades Nepali life, including politics, in its so many manifestations. Efforts should
be stepped up to erase that. The people have supplanted the monarchy as the core of
Nepali nationalism and national unity. This epochal change complete, attention must now
be directed to the tasks at hand - to consolidate the gains of the people’s long struggle for
freedom, peace, good governance, development, justice, equity, and inclusiveness.

3. The challenges are daunting but not insurmountable. Everything will not automatically fall
into place just because of the birth of a republic. The political parties and everyone else
who counts need to strive hard to replace the wrong practices and wrong political and
governing cultures with the right ones, and institute a sound mechanism for exacting
accountability from public officials in all sectors. To make the political revolution or the
peace process complete, a new constitution and general election have to be realized
within the set timeframe. Nepal also need to resolve other issues like the adjustment of
the Maoist arms and army. In the past, too, particularly with every successful people’s
movement, the political leaders had publicly pledged that nobody would be able to usurp
their freedom any longer and good governance would be practiced.

4. Threats to democracy exist even in a republic, as we have seen in Bangladesh and


Pakistan. Unless the Nepali leaders wake up to this danger in its true proportions and put
in place enough safeguards, through measures such the restructuring and reorienting of
the security forces, the danger will continue to lurk in the wings. Even extraneous forces
with contrary interests will then find it easier to meddle in the mess. The political forces
owe it to the nation to guarantee that the Nepali people will not have to fight for the same
things once again for several generations. To safeguard the country’s vital interests, our
political leaders will also have to very seriously and consciously learn

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to evolve a consensual approach to several key issues of national interest, such as those
relating to Nepal’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, its foreign relations
and security, the development and utilization of its important natural resources. A
republican order should mean better things to come.

A.2 Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal

1. Even after the one-and-a-half month race and the CA result, the NC could not accept
their defeat from the people, even though they got just 19%t against the Maoists 38% of
representatives since NC is the party who mostly ruled country after 1990.
2. Due to extreme pressure both in the domestic and international arenas not to leave the
caretaker government, a couple of days ago, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala publicly
stated that he needs two more years to draft the new constitution. The NC time and again
publicly claimed that they will not give their resignation unless the Maoists accept their
agenda in the CA, which are as:

a. Disband the parallel state-mechanisms of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA),


People’s Court and Young Communist League (YCL) - paramilitary force;
b. Set a fixed date for integration of the combatants and displaced people;
c. Immediately return the seized property of displaced people;
d. Amend the constitution to implement the republic;
e. Amend the constitution to form and oust government with a simple majority
instead of the current two thirds provision;
f. Immediate end to threats, beating, kidnappingextortion of donation and arson;
g. Separate the independent judiciary, constitutional authorities, government media,
executive, police and army from the political arena.

3. Among these demands, the issue of amending the two-thirds constitutional provision to
be a simple majority is at the top. Additionally, the NC put forward the constitutional
provision for a president and vice-president with ceremonial power (Head of State) and
PM with executive power (Head of Government). On May 21, leaders of the second, third
and fourth largest parties (NC, UML and MJF ) through the CA elections agreed to
amend the constitution, replacing the two-third majority to make and change the
government with a simple majority without consulting the Maoist party.

4. Responding to their call, Prachanda first disagreed, but later decided to amendment
accordingly, but India instantly accepted this decision. Although, the Maoists including
Prachanda have still had a strong conviction that such shall initiate a game of forming
and removing the government, and thus the dream of the people to draft/promulgate a
new constitution will never materialize.

5. Why is the NC in particular so adamant about amending the constitutional provision? The
process is obvious. First, if the government is formed under Maoist leadership, they may
have control over the state mechanism, including security forces, and their own parallel
local forces, .i. e. the People’s Courts. On the other side of the coin, the illegitimate work
of the YCL has also made fertile ground for suspicion of the Maoist party. The NC wishes
to defame the Maoists in national and international arenas using such human rights
violations. Stable leadership would disrupt this tactic.

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6. Second, senior Nepal Army officials who used the king’s ladder to reach the top position
in the past, but now are close allies with the NC, must fear action, as they were sharper
critics of the Maoist leadership than even severely critical political leaders in the past;
either on political or integration issues. Such officials are continuously pressuring the PM
not to resign from the position.

7. Third, NC, with its pro-monarchial forces (hardliners), bourgeois democratic capitalism
force, wants to amend the two-thirds constitutional provision to a simple majority so that it
can begin a foul game (buying and selling CA members similar to the parliamentary
elections of 1999) in order to draw power away from Maoist-led government in Nepal.

8. Fourth, a few diplomats whose prime strategies were to 'watch India' and 'encircle China',
suppress communist ideology and empower elites (conformists and centrists) in Nepal
are also pushing the PM Girija not to leave the government until the constitution has been
changed as they desire.

9. Indeed, demand of amendment to the constitution has been brought by the international
communities rather then NC itself. Lastly, the political leaders, courtiers, leaders of the
security forces, bureaucracy, judiciary, civil society stalwart, and Big House Media
(BHM), who amassed an hefty sum of property by illegal means such as commission,
corruption, bribery and so forth in past, are trying their best not to let Maoists lead the
government for fear of stern action.

ELECTION MANIFESTOS 2008 ON MAJOR ISSUES OF MAINSTREAM POLITICAL PARTIES


# Issue NC UML Maoist MJF
1 President Elected by MPs of central + Elected by MPs of Elected by adult Elected by adult
federal states central + federal states franchise franchise
2 Prime Chief executive Chief executive Daily govt. Daily govt.
Minister administration administration
3 State Federal democratic republic Federal democratic Federal democratic Federal democratic
system republic republic (11 states and republic
3-sub states)
4 Parliament Bicameral at the center and Bicameral at the center Bicameral at the center Bicameral at the
unicameral at province and unicameral at and unicameral at center and
province province unicameral at
province
5 Judiciary Supreme Court at center; Other Central, province and • Supreme Supreme, provincial
and district courts in province as local court Court at center; and district courts
required • High &
District Courts at
province &
• Local
People’s Court
6 Security • National security • National • Integration
policy to be implied both security policy. of ex-combatants
citizen and NA • NA to be and NA
• NA to be under under parliament. • Inclusive
Parliament • Professional army
• NA to be controlled ization to PLA and • National
by executive democratization to army at Center
• Armed Police, Nepal NA • Paramilitar
police and Investigation • Integration y and militia at
Department to be to be carried out in province
B.Security Dimension

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1. As UNMIN receives wide criticism from all the corners, it may return mid-way through its
work. Technical support to the Election Commission for free and fair CA elections and
verification of combatants at cantonments and satellite cantonments has been
completed. However, the greatest task, professionalization of the combatants and
democratization of the Nepal Army as well as integration of both have been major
challenges, as neither the Interim Government, nor UNMIN have endeavored to work on
the most challenging tasks. There would have been many chances to extend UNMIN’s
tenure (July 23, 2008), but its high profile/vocal and visible seeking of more opportunities
rather than focusing on work made Nepalis frustrated at all levels. Who now replaces the
position of UNMIN? There is no visible answer yet. The Indian government is trying hard
to win the favor of the political parties to have an influential role in managing the arms
and armies of Nepal. That may be the reason why newly appointed Indian Ambassador
to Nepal, Rakesh Sood, who is recognized as an expert of arms and armies, visited 6
times to Prachanda (during less than a month of work, even formal works he started in
Nepal) to placate the Maoists on the one hand, and to preclude extension of UNMIN's
tenure on the other.
2. During a recent visit Sitaram Yochuri, special envoy to Indian Prime Minister Dr.
Manmohan Singh, advised the Maoists not to have any more role for UNMIN after its
tenure ends. It appears India is seeking a stronger role in security matters beside to the
political and economic arenas. Nepalese are yet to have answered whether India feels it
has a stake in resolving the crisis for sustainable peace, security and sovereignty, or
because of zest for influence in security measures.

C. Republic Implementation

1. The Interim Constitution (IC), part 23 on the transitional provisions article 159 (1) states,
"No power regarding the governance of the country shall be vested in the king." Similarly,
article 159 (3) states that notwithstanding anything contained elsewhere in this
Constitution, the simple majority in the first meeting of the Constitutional Assembly shall
ratify the decision of republic against the monarchy. The same article also states that the
PM shall perform all work pertaining to the governance and operation of the country
(Head of the State and the Government).

2. Misusing the state apparatus, the former king started to amass private property after the
imposition of the Panchayat system (absolute rule) introduced by his father in 1960. The
former monarchy had been existing as a pauper king prior to 1960 as a result of the Rana
oligarchy. The NC wishes to amend the constitution to incorporate the provision of
ceremonial president, vice president and PM in the name of power sharing, but the
Maoists rejected the statute amendment. If this trend continues, disadvantaged political
party(ies) may eventually align with the former royalist forces under an umbrella. If that
happens, Nepal would see more chaos and bloodshed, as the people are against any ally
of the dead monarchy and its courtiers.

D. International Cooperation

1. Nepal has been a playground of powerful nations due to the mushrooming of communist
ideologies on the one hand and a growing alliance between China and India on the other.
These nations are now in confusion as their conformist counterforce failed to defeat
communist ideology in Nepal despite their moral, economic and propagandistic support.

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2. British Ambassador to Nepal including other mission heads based in Kathmandu clearly
spoke in favor of formation of new government and promulgation of a new constitution.
The United Kingdom is positive toward providing more grants to the new government
regardless of who leads the government. The World Bank has also already provided
more than NRs. 12 billions supports. Many international communities who want
sustainable peace and security through social justice have a common understanding that
a elections were a milestone to bring a remarkable change in the country and that is up to
Nepalese to decide who should claim to form the new government in the changed
context.

3. However, many conscious masses have a conviction that India always plays a double-
standard political game with Nepal. They believe that Indian Ambassador is advocating
that the Maoists lead the new national government on the one hand and on the other
pushing that have a parallel power sharing mechanism in new government - ceremonial
role to Interim President (IC) and Prime Minister with executive power amending to the
IC.

E. Government Apparatus

1. Whatever effect the policies, programs and strategies of the Maoist lead government may
have on the course to make a new Nepal, the prime movers are the bureaucrats,
diplomats and technocrats. Notwithstanding that all prime movers including security
forces and the judiciary are intermeshed with the other parties; the NC in particular. This
has happened due to over politicization of the bureaucracy and others rather than free,
fair and impartial services to the people and nation. Even in the past, the same state
apparatus manipulated the new and fresh leaders of NC and UML, providing souvenirs at
first, managing vehicles, rented homes second, buying land and houses third, and then
finally sinking them into the quagmire of corruption. Because of that, the people in this CA
handed defeat to most of infamous leaders. There is no doubt that the same mechanism
has already activated immediately after the results of CA to intervene with the influential
leaders of the Maoist party too.

2. The understandings and agreements, whatever may have been done by the government
in the past with Ethnicities, Madhesis, Dalits and other autonomous seeking groups
suddenly shall come to the surface will fall into the political marsh, because all groups will
try to incorporate their issues in the IC. Such demands themselves, not to mention their
fulfillment, minimize the importance of the CA drafting and promulgating new constitution.
Therefore, principal state actor must take special care not to have extra-judicial killings,
terror, violence, anarchism and extortion any more in the country on the eve of new
constitution making process. However, the national government should create a political
consensus incorporating all major parties including the MJF, TMLP and others in the
forthcoming government.

F. Finally, All Are Winner

1. When Prime Minister Koirala finally arrived at Constituent Assembly on Wednesday,


night had fallen. He ignored the Nepal Army's guard of honour that had waited
around all day in Baneswor. Koirala must have been sore at the way negotiations
had drifted at Baluwatar all day. With his own cabinet colleagues and senior party
functionaries dealing directly with the army brass, the premier had very little elbow

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room to persuade the Maoists to accept a compromise on presidential powers.In the
end, he had to present a deadlock as a settlement to save face and end the first
session with an obligatory declaration of a republic.
2.
3. Such a perfunctory pronouncement could have easily been done had the meeting
begun on schedule in the morning. It would have saved the newly-elected members
unnecessary fatigue and the embarrassment of the diplomatic corps ridiculing "the
Nepali way of doing things at the last hour" in the visitor's balcony. Early on
Wednesday morning, Maoist negotiators were the only ones to arrive at Baluwatar
fully prepared. With an eye on the post of an executive president, the Maoists
insisted that the change in interim constitution must accept their party manifesto and
follow the French Model. Nudged by the army, the NC and UML insisted that the
supreme commander-in-chief and the head of government should not be the same
person.In the end, Bhadrakali prevailed over Baluwatar and Koirala now probably
fears that the generals have someone other than him in mind for the first president.
Hence Koirala's snub to military band. In next seven days of CA recess, the real
bargaining will be between the Maoists and the others over who will be president

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