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CHAPTER THREE: PROJECTIONS

3.1 Introduction

The population projections presented in this report were derived from RUP software.
RUP is cohort component population projection software package capable of
projecting population by single years of age, one year at a time.

The Tanzania National Population Projection was projected by using RUP for 22
years from 2003 under two scenarios that is with and without HIV/AIDS assumptions.
Specific information presented in this chapter include: projected total population by
sex in single and five-year age groups; population growth rates; crude birth rates;
age specific fertility rates; TFR; CDR; infant and child mortality rates; life expectancy;
and net migration; as well as population pyramid.

These projections are presented for Tanzania Mainland and Tanzania Zanzibar,
whereas Tanzania Total is the aggregate of the two populations.

3.2 Highlights of Population Projections Results

This section discusses all demographic indicators for midyear population between
2003 and 2025 with and without HIV/AIDS assumptions.

3.2.1 Population Growth


The projections without HIV/AIDS assumptions show that Tanzania population
growth rate will decrease from 3.3 percent in 2003 (with a population of 34,876,231)
to 2.9 percent in 2025 (with a population of 68,794,180). The projected population
growth rate for Tanzania Mainland decreases from 3.3 percent in 2003 to 2.9 percent
in 2025. The projected population growth rate for Tanzania Zanzibar decreases from
3.2 percent in 2003 to 2.1 percent in 2025.

Whilst with HIV/AIDS assumptions the projections indicate that Tanzania population
growth rate will increase at a rate of 2.9 percent in 2003 (with total population of
34,719,999) while in 2025 the increase will be 2.6 percent (with population of
63,516,735).

3.2.2 Life Expectancy at Birth


Life expectancy at birth for Tanzania total will increase from 56 years in 2003 to 64
years in 2025 for both sexes in the absence of HIV/AIDS assumptions. On Tanzania
Mainland it is envisaged that in the absence of AIDS the life expectancy at birth for
both sexes will increase from 56 years in 2003 to 64 years in 2025. For male
population life expectancy at birth will increase from 54 years in year 2003 to 62
years in 2025 while for female population the life expectancy at birth will increase
from 58 years in 2003 to 67 years in 2025. On Tanzania Zanzibar life expectancy at
birth is expected to be slightly higher than in Tanzania Mainland. For both sexes, life
expectancy at birth will increase from 62 years in 2003 to 69 years in 2025.

With HIV/AIDS assumptions Tanzania population will experience less increase in life
expectancy at birth for both sexes between year 2003 and 2025. Life expectancy at
birth for Tanzania total shows an increase from 48 years in 2003 to 57 years in 2025
for both sexes.
3.2.3 Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
The Infant Mortality rate is expected to decline from 78 deaths per 1,000 live births in
2003 to 45 deaths per 1,000 live births for both sexes in the absence of HIV/AIDS.
For Tanzania Mainland infant mortality rate will decline from 78 deaths per 1000 live
births in 2003 to 45 deaths per 1000 live births in 2025. In Tanzania Zanzibar infant
mortality will also decline from 79 deaths per 1000 live births in 2003 to 43 deaths per
1000 live births in 2025.

With HIV/AIDS, infant mortality rate for Tanzania will decline from 86 deaths per 1000
live births in 2003 to 50 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025 for both sexes. Similar
pattern of Infant mortality rate is observed in Tanzania Mainland.

3.2.4 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)


The projected TFR in 2003 is 5.7 children per woman and 4.7 children per woman in
2025 for both Tanzania Total and Tanzania Mainland. In Tanzania Zanzibar the
estimated TFR is 5.3 children per woman in 2003 and 3.6 children per woman in
2025. It should be noted that these figures are for without HIV / AIDS.

3.3 Projections

The projection results are presented for Tanzania Total, Tanzania Mainland and
Tanzania Zanzibar under two scenarios – with and without HIV/AIDS assumptions.
The results are contained in table 3A to table 6B below.