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Election Heats-Up!

Campaigning for the Presidential Election has heated-up here in Brazil, even though
Candidates are not allowed to campaign, by law until July 15th. The Public Works that
the President and Dilma have been inaugurating are making news and getting Dilma
known in a positive light. So much so, that in a recent poll she has improved her rating
in voter’s intentions from 21.7% in late November to 27.8% in February. The PSDB has
already made many complaints to the Supreme Tribunal of Elections (“TSE”) stating
that the inaugurations are clearly political and electoral in content, but its not clear what
the TSE could do about it.

Dilma Rousseff

In fact, overlooking the legality and morality of the issue, one is compelled to the
conclusion that the PT’s strategy is very smart given the limitations of their candidate
i.e. a person little known nationally who has never run for public office; given the
continuing popularity of Presidet Lula, and given the general economic climate which
continues positive. However, it is also clear that the PSBD is getting punished, among
other things, for the recent floods in São Paulo and will have to react at some point.

There has been an 8.4% decline in voter’s intentions since November, of which Ciro
Gomes is the main loser, down 5.6% from 17.5% to 11.9%. Undecided electors are
down 2.8%, from 23.2% to 20.4%. The beneficiaries of these changes are Dilma with
her 6.1% jump. Marina Silva of the Greens who moves up 0.9% from 5.9% to 6.8%,
and José Serra who climbs 1.4% from 31.8% to 33.2%.

Questions are circling at present around. Ciro Gomes who insists that notwithstanding
his apparent loss of 32% of his support he will continue in the Presidential race.
Apparently, the opportunity to run against Geraldo Alckmin for Governer of São Paulo,
with President Lula’s support does not, at present, appeal to him.

Ciro Gomes

The other aspect of Ciro Gomes is that if his candidature for the Presidency is not
considered in the polls, his 11.9% is distributed as follows: José Serra, 7.5%; Marina
Silva, 2.7%, undecided, 1.0% and Dilma Rousseff, 0.7%.

Divergency in Opinion Polls, February, 2010 (with and without Ciro Gomes)
José Serra 33.2% 40.7%
Dilma Rousseff 27.8% 28.5%
Marina Silva 6.8% 9.5%
Undecided 20.4% 21.4%
Ciro Gomes 11.9%
Source: CNT/Sensus

The tentative conclusions that we reach are that Dilma may have received all of the
support that she is currently going to get from Ciro. For Serra, the withdrawal of Ciro
could mean victory at the first round (depending upon how the undecided vote).
However, its early days, but Dilma is currently the candidate with momentum.