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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine


covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,
and commentary can be found HERE.

Suttmeier's Four in Four video and ForexTV Markets Review can be watched on the web
HERE.

February 4, 2010 – The Strong Dollar is the Wildcard

Supply weighs on risk aversion for US Treasuries. Dollar strength, euro weakness hits gold,
copper and crude oil. The weekly chart for the Dow Industrial Average, and housing, and
community and regional banks
The US Treasury announced $81 billion in note auctions for next week. Wall Street must
underwrite $40 billion in 3-Year notes on Tuesday, $25 billion in 10-Year notes on Wednesday and $16
billion in 30-Year bonds on Thursday.
The yield on the 10-Year is trading around my semiannual pivot at 3.675, which is my line in the sand
between supply concern and risk aversion. A weekly close richer than 3.675 continues risk aversion
with potential strength to my monthly resistance at 3.504. Otherwise weekly support is 3.858 which may
be necessary to absorb all of the supply.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


The dollar is strong as the euro remains weak, which hits gold, copper and crude oil.
The weekly chart for the Dollar Index is positive but overbought with quarterly resistance at $80.23
and the 200-week simple moving average at $80.59. A weekly close above these key resistances
signals the next wave up for the greenback. Dollar strength has been the wildcard so far in 2010.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The weekly chart for the euro is just below its 200-week simple moving average at 1.3850 this
morning. A weekly close below puts the focus on euro country problems such as Greece and Spain.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


The stronger dollar lessons the value of gold as currency of last resort. The weekly chart for gold
stays negative on a close this week below my annual pivot at $1115.2.
Copper has weakened significantly since peaking on January 7 and a close this week below the
200-week simple moving average at 299.92 is a sign that the global growth story is losing credibility.
The risk is to my quarterly support at 265.00.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Crude oil has returned to my annual pivot at $77.05 while alleviating the oversold condition on its
daily chart. The weekly chart stays negative on a weekly close below the 200-week simple moving
average at $76.21. My quarterly support is $67.22 with monthly resistance at $79.90.
This time it’s different for the Dow and the major equity averages.
When I incorrectly shifted from Bull to Bear in the May to July period last year it was after a rally of
around 40% from the March 5th low. The 21-day simple moving average crossed below the 50-day in
July and this cross-over proved false as the 200-day provided stability. This time the 200-day is at
9,460. Today’s support is 10,236 with weekly and annual resistances at 10,341 and 10,379. The 21-day
at 10,434 will be crossing below the 50-day at 10,431 today or tomorrow.
The July low established the Ascending Wedge support on the weekly chart, and this trend held until
three weeks ago. This time it’s different as the breaking of an Ascending Wedge is technically
significant. My quarterly support lags at 6,705, which can be temporarily blocked by weekly support
next week.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


The Housing Market, and Community and Regional Banks have held up, but appear vulnerable.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Housing Market Index (HGX) up 3.3% in 2010 shifts to negative on a weekly close below 103.00.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The America’s Community Bankers Index (ABAQ) up 1.5% in 2010 shifts to negative on a weekly
close below 150.25. My semiannual support is 146.67.
The Regional Banking Index (BKX) up 8.2% in 2010 shifts to neutral on a weekly close below $40.76.
My semiannual support is $40.76.
Send me your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our
products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

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Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample
issues of my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”