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Recent Prentice Budget (65%), Former Premier

Redfords
Antics (59%) are Largest Drivers of Vote Choice
NDP Seen as the Party with Best Plan on Key Issues to Albertans;
Notley (40%) Trumps Prentice (24%), Jean (21%) as Best Premier
Public Release Date: Friday, May 1, 2015, 6:00 PM (MDT)

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Recent Prentice Budget (65%), Former Premier


Redfords
Antics (59%) are Largest Drivers of Vote Choice
NDP Seen as the Party with Best Plan on Key Issues to Albertans;
Notley (40%) Trumps Prentice (24%), Jean (21%) as Best Premier

Toronto, ON The recent budget brought forward by the Prentice Government


and the behaviour of former Premier Allison Redford are the largest factors
influencing how Albertans will vote next Tuesday, according to a new Ipsos poll
conducted on behalf of Global News and Corus Entertainment.
Helping to explain why the NDP appears to have a solid lead heading into the final
days of the campaign, Albertans were asked to identify the degree to which six
factors were having an impact on their vote choice. The results clearly
demonstrate why the PCs are struggling:

Two in three (65%) say that the recent budget introduced by the Prentice
government is having an impact (35% very big/30% somewhat big) on their
vote, while for others the impact is somewhat small (18%), very small (5%),
or there is no impact at all (12%). The budget is having the greatest impact
among people who are voting for the NDP (82%), suggesting that opposition

to the budget is consolidating around the NDP.


Six in ten (59%) say how former Premier Allison Redford acted and
ran things in Alberta is having an impact (39% very big/21% somewhat
big) on their vote, while for others the impact is somewhat small (17%),
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very small (8%), or non-existent (15%). One percent (1%) doesnt know.
This impact is stronger for people voting for the Wildrose (70%) and NDP

(70%).
Nearly half (45%) say the crossing of the floor by Wildrose MLAs to
the PCs is having an impact on their vote (24% very big/21% somewhat
big), while for others the impact is somewhat small (22%), very small (9%),
or not at all (24%). This impact is stronger for current Wildrose (57%) and

NDP (55%) voters.


Four in ten (36%) say how the PCs treated the Wildrose MLAs after
they crossed the floor is having an impact (15% very big/21% somewhat
big) on their vote, while others say the impact is somewhat small (21%),
very small (11%) or that there is no impact (30%). Two percent (2%) dont
know. The impact is larger for Wildrose (49%) and NDP (46%) voters, and

especially low for PC voters (19%).


One in three (34%) indicate that the outcome of the leaders debate is
impacting (15% very big/20% somewhat big) their vote, while for others the
impact is somewhat small (27%), very small (10%) or non-existent (27%).
Three percent (3%) dont know. NDP voters (53%) appear most impacted by

the debate, more so than Wildrose (31%) and Conservative (23%) voters.
Two in ten (21%) suggest that public opinion polls are having an impact
(8% very big/14% somewhat big) on their vote, and this impact is roughly
comparable across supporters of each of the major parties. Others say they
impact is somewhat small (25%), very small (11%) or non-existent (41%).
One percent (1%) doesnt know how polling impacts their vote.

NDP has Lead on Almost Every Issue


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The NDP popular-vote lead in the home stretch is not only explained by anger at
the incumbent PCs over the budget, former Premier Redford and the MLA floor
crossing incident, but also by the fact that the NDP seems to lead on almost every
key issue of the campaign. The table below outlines the issue, and the proportion
of Albertans who believe that each party has the best plan to deal with that issue
of importance to Albertans.
Issue

PC

Wildrose

NDP

Liberal

To create jobs for Albertans


To have the right level of corporate taxes
To diversify our economy
For our town and cities
For ensuring open and honest government
That reflects how Alberta wants to be seen
on the national and international stage
For a healthcare system that I can trust to be
there when I need it
For post-secondary education
That acts in the best interest of taxpayers

27%
23%
25%
24%
18%
32%

21%
23%
24%
25%
26%
22%

35%
35%
32%
29%
38%
29%

9%
11%
11%
12%
10%
9%

Alberta
Party
5%
5%
6%
5%
5%
4%

18%

21%

40%

13%

5%

19%
21%

19%
30%

41%
34%

12%
9%

4%
5%

The NDP leads all of the other parties on 8 of the 9 issues, with the PCs only
leading on the party that best reflects how Alberta wants to be seen on the
national and international stage. Even on the taxpayer metric, the NDP leads the
Wildrose and the PCs a distant third.

Notley (40%) Trumps Prentice (24%), Jean (21%) as Best Premier


Given the advantage that the NDP appears to have over the other parties on
many of the key issues facing Albertans, its perhaps not surprising that 40% of
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Albertans believe that NDP Leader Rachel Notley would make the best Premier of
Alberta. In a distant second place is incumbent PC Leader and Premier Jim
Prentice (25%), followed closely by Wildrose Alliance Leader Brian Jean (21%).
Following in 4th and 5th place, respectively, are Liberal Leader David Swann (9%)
and Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark (4%).
Nine in ten (89%) NDP voters think that Ms. Notley would make the best Premier,
but PC Voters (82%) and especially Wildrose (67%) voters are less convinced that
their own Party leaders (Prentice and Jean, respectively) would make the best
Premier of the province.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 27 th and 29th, 2015 on behalf
of Global News and Corus Entertainment. For this survey, a sample of 761 adults living in Alberta was
interviewed. 301 interviews were conducted by live operator telephone interviewing (including 20%
cellphone sample), and 460 interviews were online from the Ipsos I-Say panel. Weighting was
then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the
adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample
universe. The precision of polls where online interviewing was employed is measured using a
credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out
of 20, had all Albertan adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the
population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
-30For more information on this news release, please contact:
Jamie Duncan
Ipsos
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Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(403) 969-3235
For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos-na.com.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/

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