Students Tutorial Answers Week5

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Students Tutorial Answers Week5

© All Rights Reserved

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You are on page 1of 6

It will be gradually posted on BES website with one week delay & without the

tutor notes denoted by TN.

WEEK 5 TUTORIAL EXERCISES (To be discussed in the week starting

August 16

1. The manager of a factory has determined from past experience that X, the

number of repairs required to machines in her factory on any one day, has

the following probability distribution:

x

P(X = x)

0.41

0.25

0.18

0.10

0.06

(a)

(b)

P(0 X 3)

(c)

0.41

0.25

0.18

0.1

0.06

(d)

1.15

0.41

3 1.15

1.15

0.25

0.10

4 1.15

1.15

0.18

0.06 1.5075

1.15

x

P(X = x|x>0)

0.42

0.31

0.17

0.10

denoted by X and follows the distribution given in the table below. A

human resource manager records the daily numbers of errors of two

randomly selected tellers. Denote the associated random variables by X1

and X2. As the selection is random, X1 and X2 are independent and follow

the same distribution as X. The manager then computes the sample mean

where the sample size is n = 2.

x

P(X = x)

0.6

0.2

0.2

(a) Find the mean and variance of X1 and explain why we do not need to

find the mean and variance of X2 once we know those of X1?

0.6;

0.64

The mean and variance of X2 are the same because they have identical

distributions.

(b) As X1 and X2 are random so is . Find the mean and variance of

Compare these with the result from (a) and comment.

0.6

1

4

1

4

0.32

4, ?

Ifn=2possiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.

Ifn=3possiblevaluesare0,1/3,2/3,1,,2

Asnincreasesgetafinergridofvaluesbetweenextremesof0and2.

(d) Find the distribution of

(known as the sampling distribution).

Comment on the magnitudes of the probabilities.

Weknowpossiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.Nowneedtoassign

probabilities to each outcome to produce the probability distribution for the

samplemean.

Forexample

0

0,

0

0.6 0.6 0.36

Thefollowingtablelistsallpossibleoutcomesandassociatedprobabilities:

,

0,0

0,1

0,2

1,0

1,1

1,2

2,0

2,1

2,2

1

3/2

1

3/2

2

Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:

0

1/2

1

0.36

0.24

0.28

)

Probability

0.36

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.04

0.04

0.12

0.04

0.04

3/2

0.08

2

0.04

3. A student has taken three courses in this semester. Lets call them courses

A, B and C. Her chances of passing each course are 0.8, 0.65, and 0.5,

respectively. Passing each course is assumed to be independent of passing

other courses. Answer the following:

(a) Define a random variable for each course outcome.

A=0(failA)&A=1(passA)

B=0(failB)&B=1(passB)

C=0(failC)&C=1(passC)

(b) What is the probability that this student passes exactly two courses?

P(passingtwocourses)=P(passA&BbutfailC)+P(passA&CbutfailB)+

1 0.5

0.8 0.5

1 0.65

P(passC&BbutfailA)=0.8 0.65

0.65 0.5

1 0.8

0.465

(c) What is the probability that this student fails at least one course?

P(failingatleastonecourse)=1P(passingallcourses)

1 0.8 0.65 0.5 0.74

(d) How reasonable is the assumption of independence?

Independenceislikelytobeanunreasonableassumption.Resultsarelikelytobe

dependent(strongpositiveassociation).

probability distribution of X? What is the mean and variance of X? Consider

a game where you win $5 for every head but lose $3 for every tail that

appears in 4 tosses of a fair coin. Let the variable Y denote the winnings

from this game. What is the expected value of Y? Would you like to play

this game? If so why? If not why not?

Obviouslyx=0,1,2,3,4.Nowneedallpossiblecombinationsthatwillproduce

eachoftheseoutcomes.

n

Cxpossiblecombinationsovern=4tosses

ValueofX

0

(TTTT)[4C0=1]

1

(HTTT)(THTT)(TTHT)(TTTH)[4C1=4]

2

(HHTT)(HTHT)(HTTH)(THHT)(THTH)(TTHH)[4C2=6]

3

(THHH)(HTHH)(HHTH)(HHHT)[4C3=4]

4

(HHHH)[4C4=1]

Eachofthesecombinationsareequallylikelybecauseonanytossofafaircoin

P(H)=P(T)=0.5&wereassumingoutcomesareindependent

P(TTTT)=P(HTTT)=.=P(HHHH)=(0.5)4=0.0625

Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:

0

1

2

3

4

0.0625

0.25

0.375

0.25

0.0625

Y=5X3*(4X)

As

E(X)

= 0+10.25+20.375+30.25+40.0625

= 2

Var(X) = (2)20.0625+(1)20.25+0+(1)20.25+(2)20.0625

= 1

E(Y)

= 5E(X)3[4E(X)]

= 1012+6=4

or

y

P(Y=y)

12

0.0625

4

0.25

4

0.375

12

0.25

20

0.0625

E(Y) = 120.062540.25+40.375+12.025+200.0625

= 4

If you play the game enough times you would expect to win $4 per game on

average.Thusthisisnotafairgame(whereexpectedreturnsarezero)butitis

biasedtowardstheplayerunlikegamesincasinoswhereexpectedwinningsare

negative.

Notice on any one play of the game you still might lose money and hence

someone who is extremely risk averse might not want to play the game even

thoughonaverageovermanyplaysofthegametheyshouldwin.

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