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01/15/10 Phone: 314-721-4747 Fax: 314-721-6383

Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May.09 Jun.09 Jul.09 Aug.09 Sep.09 Oct.09 Nov.09
Monthly GDP Index 12,981 12,893 12,948 12,939 12,900 12,915 12,894 12,940 12,995 12,984 13,149 13,178
Percent change -2.0 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.2
Annualized % ch -21.4 -7.8 5.3 -0.9 -3.6 1.5 -2.0 4.4 5.1 -1.0 16.4 2.6

Contributions to Annualized %ch (approx) Monthly GDP Index: November 2009


Sep.09 Oct.09 Nov.09 Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in November following a sharp, 1.3% increase in
Monthly GDP -1.0 16.4 2.6 October. Monthly GDP rose at an average annual rate of 5½% over the
second half of 2009 (through November), following a roughly flat trend
Final Sales -8.8 5.9 2.1 over the first half of the year. The increase in monthly GDP in November
Domestic -5.3 2.7 4.3 reflected gains in PCE and other components of domestic final sales
PCE -6.3 3.2 2.6 partially offset by a decline in net exports. Inventory investment was
roughly unchanged. The level of monthly GDP averaged over October
Capital goods 1.2 -0.4 1.1 and November was 6.0% above the third-quarter average at an annual
Construction -0.2 -0.6 0.4 rate. Our latest estimate of 5.6% GDP growth in the fourth quarter
Other -0.1 0.5 0.2 assumes a 0.4% decline of monthly GDP in December.
Net Exports -3.5 3.1 -2.2
Nonfarm CIPI 7.7 8.6 -0.3 Monthly GDP Index: Short View
Not Covered 0.1 0.8 0.8
Billions of chain-type (2005) dollars
13,600
26,000
Contributions to Annualized %ch (approx)
24,000
13,500
November
Domestic Final Sales 22,000
12 13,400
20,000
88
13,300
18,000
44 16,000
13,200
0 14,000
0
13,100
-4 12,000
-4
-8 10,000
13,000
-8 8,000
-12 12,900
Dec.08
-12 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09 6,000
12,800
4,000

2,000
12
Net Exports 12,700
Dec.06
0 Jun.07 Dec.07 Jun.08 Dec.08 Jun.09 O
88

44
Monthly GDP Index: Long View
0
0
-4
-4
Billions of chain-type (2005) dollars
14,000
-8 22,000
-8
-12 20,000
Dec.08
-12 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09 13,500
18,000

16,000
13,000
12 Nonfarm Change in Private Inventories (CIPI)
14,000
88
12,500
12,000
44
10,000
0 12,000
0 8,000
-4
-4 6,000
-8 11,500
-8 4,000
-12
Dec.08
-12 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09 2,000
11,000
Dec.01
0 Dec.02 Dec.03 Dec.04 Dec.05 Dec.06 Dec.07 Dec.08

Technical Note
Macroeconomic Advisers’ index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent
with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the NIPA’s. The consistency is derived from two sources. First, MGDP is calculated using
much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at
MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the
underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Copyright © 2010 Macroeconomic Advisers, LLCSM The information provided herein is based upon sources believed by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLCSM,
to be reliable. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLCSM, cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This
report does not purport to disclose any risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice with regard to any
specific investment or instance. The opinions and judgments expressed within this report made as of this date are subject to change without notice.
Monthly Nominal Monthly Real
GDP Index GDP Index
1992 - Jan 6137.265
1992 - Feb 6189.499
1992 - Mar 6245.337
1992 - Apr 6270.453 8217.272
1992 - May 6250.093 8187.538
1992 - Jun 6365.054 8328.474
1992 - Jul 6384.058 8334.026
1992 - Aug 6379.873 8315.944
1992 - Sep 6405.169 8338.611
1992 - Oct 6452.466 8382.571
1992 - Nov 6483.005 8404.166
1992 - Dec 6545.329 8464.642
1993 - Jan 6530.809 8421.711
1993 - Feb 6548.933 8441.047
1993 - Mar 6553.759 8435.087
1993 - Apr 6586.972 8457.749
1993 - May 6629.771 8491.986
1993 - Jun 6651.357 8509.786
1993 - Jul 6644.310 8487.783
1993 - Aug 6680.859 8520.780
1993 - Sep 6739.731 8585.029
1993 - Oct 6748.071 8577.963
1993 - Nov 6833.048 8664.441
1993 - Dec 6860.281 8689.255
1994 - Jan 6871.789 8692.126
1994 - Feb 6928.891 8741.858
1994 - Mar 6948.220 8749.993
1994 - Apr 6983.616 8783.772
1994 - May 7091.915 8901.226
1994 - Jun 7057.369 8857.217
1994 - Jul 7101.781 8882.686
1994 - Aug 7156.945 8937.708
1994 - Sep 7136.674 8892.851
1994 - Oct 7224.862 8985.880
1994 - Nov 7230.478 8984.033
1994 - Dec 7289.259 9039.991
1995 - Jan 7330.165 9067.102
1995 - Feb 7273.955 8983.530
1995 - Mar 7318.981 9025.484
1995 - Apr 7316.191 9004.834
1995 - May 7338.186 9027.538
1995 - Jun 7413.023 9102.133
1995 - Jul 7392.603 9059.585
1995 - Aug 7447.492 9114.460
1995 - Sep 7517.405 9188.447
1995 - Oct 7519.767 9161.318
1995 - Nov 7521.478 9160.789
1995 - Dec 7586.254 9231.317
1996 - Jan 7612.237 9228.415
1996 - Feb 7622.590 9230.868
1996 - Mar 7679.774 9283.068
1996 - Apr 7795.711 9417.270
1996 - May 7779.019 9379.630
1996 - Jun 7825.269 9425.146
1996 - Jul 7860.898 9461.192
1996 - Aug 7885.206 9479.150
1996 - Sep 7931.995 9526.891
1996 - Oct 8012.449 9598.369
1996 - Nov 8041.620 9610.267
1996 - Dec 8014.931 9569.248
1997 - Jan 8087.209 9631.527
1997 - Feb 8162.434 9695.779
1997 - Mar 8161.356 9671.563
1997 - Apr 8270.571 9800.588
1997 - May 8232.998 9764.424
1997 - Jun 8326.831 9864.024
1997 - Jul 8375.184 9909.782
1997 - Aug 8396.617 9918.601
1997 - Sep 8457.899 9970.022
1997 - Oct 8491.160 9999.041
1997 - Nov 8474.921 9971.880
1997 - Dec 8551.019 10056.097
1998 - Jan 8504.103 9994.879
1998 - Feb 8635.308 10144.519
1998 - Mar 8662.389 10171.187
1998 - Apr 8652.939 10152.487
1998 - May 8676.063 10164.351
1998 - Jun 8766.798 10266.253
1998 - Jul 8769.729 10245.184
1998 - Aug 8826.215 10296.590
1998 - Sep 8945.656 10444.824
1998 - Oct 8996.496 10488.196
1998 - Nov 9042.166 10527.272
1998 - Dec 9043.838 10507.471
1999 - Jan 9087.867 10534.224
1999 - Feb 9151.546 10607.876
1999 - Mar 9206.388 10661.509
1999 - Apr 9220.716 10650.675
1999 - May 9262.178 10700.194
1999 - Jun 9274.906 10701.123
1999 - Jul 9378.006 10802.330
1999 - Aug 9383.289 10797.708
1999 - Sep 9454.005 10859.679
1999 - Oct 9524.447 10927.792
1999 - Nov 9610.130 11018.338
1999 - Dec 9688.523 11096.734
2000 - Jan 9636.143 10984.966
2000 - Feb 9702.859 11038.791
2000 - Mar 9789.498 11105.212
2000 - Apr 9919.095 11241.125
2000 - May 9937.704 11250.635
2000 - Jun 9990.501 11283.574
2000 - Jul 9935.206 11194.881
2000 - Aug 10045.521 11310.116
2000 - Sep 10071.773 11298.382
2000 - Oct 10132.884 11350.405
2000 - Nov 10140.731 11345.822
2000 - Dec 10115.785 11307.065
2001 - Jan 10168.328 11323.654
2001 - Feb 10151.761 11283.282
2001 - Mar 10175.211 11284.533
2001 - Apr 10259.321 11348.049
2001 - May 10344.011 11420.195
2001 - Jun 10300.568 11345.531
2001 - Jul 10286.508 11312.045
2001 - Aug 10400.199 11432.657
2001 - Sep 10228.893 11275.457
2001 - Oct 10348.016 11356.778
2001 - Nov 10299.163 11297.774
2001 - Dec 10472.121 11485.962
2002 - Jan 10500.457 11498.167
2002 - Feb 10451.079 11425.814
2002 - Mar 10544.564 11509.852
2002 - Apr 10575.648 11522.521
2002 - May 10584.624 11524.123
2002 - Jun 10645.428 11569.940
2002 - Jul 10718.013 11630.794
2002 - Aug 10672.815 11567.874
2002 - Sep 10714.271 11590.617
2002 - Oct 10711.949 11566.599
2002 - Nov 10760.265 11588.905
2002 - Dec 10828.487 11640.790
2003 - Jan 10829.363 11608.630
2003 - Feb 10935.804 11692.804
2003 - Mar 10900.033 11636.146
2003 - Apr 10974.121 11709.798
2003 - May 10960.986 11689.493
2003 - Jun 11089.193 11817.149
2003 - Jul 11169.220 11880.148
2003 - Aug 11244.029 11924.013
2003 - Sep 11353.851 12002.682
2003 - Oct 11369.068 12012.531
2003 - Nov 11425.536 12053.998
2003 - Dec 11454.896 12062.154
2004 - Jan 11476.632 12033.670
2004 - Feb 11614.836 12145.795
2004 - Mar 11700.132 12203.572
2004 - Apr 11714.220 12184.524
2004 - May 11836.999 12275.758
2004 - Jun 11783.981 12181.346
2004 - Jul 11932.435 12290.451
2004 - Aug 11948.622 12311.650
2004 - Sep 11970.442 12308.542
2004 - Oct 12105.551 12415.472
2004 - Nov 12141.005 12403.128
2004 - Dec 12188.144 12412.418
2005 - Jan 12361.115 12541.471
2005 - Feb 12350.509 12504.554
2005 - Mar 12426.875 12556.465
2005 - Apr 12472.105 12570.921
2005 - May 12471.434 12541.759
2005 - Jun 12606.860 12649.873
2005 - Jul 12673.357 12661.316
2005 - Aug 12748.418 12700.110
2005 - Sep 12803.026 12688.074
2005 - Oct 12848.747 12708.570
2005 - Nov 12878.144 12713.604
2005 - Dec 13019.909 12823.783
2006 - Jan 13110.979 12881.342
2006 - Feb 13128.049 12867.317
2006 - Mar 13311.472 12998.697
2006 - Apr 13289.198 12929.888
2006 - May 13362.830 12984.517
2006 - Jun 13391.373 12972.800
2006 - Jul 13395.281 12945.122
2006 - Aug 13452.894 12957.124
2006 - Sep 13510.526 12995.323
2006 - Oct 13542.541 13016.613
2006 - Nov 13642.915 13093.826
2006 - Dec 13649.044 13071.565
2007 - Jan 13706.509 13063.181
2007 - Feb 13857.715 13154.664
2007 - Mar 13822.576 13081.879
2007 - Apr 13955.519 13183.475
2007 - May 14006.270 13213.437
2007 - Jun 14029.812 13215.080
2007 - Jul 14089.836 13264.354
2007 - Aug 14158.664 13311.919
2007 - Sep 14291.200 13387.112
2007 - Oct 14261.264 13343.324
2007 - Nov 14355.586 13403.656
2007 - Dec 14396.849 13426.696
2008 - Jan 14377.392 13401.907
2008 - Feb 14352.438 13344.856
2008 - Mar 14391.871 13353.747
2008 - Apr 14438.087 13369.050
2008 - May 14437.278 13368.358
2008 - Jun 14618.035 13507.522
2008 - Jul 14611.993 13406.551
2008 - Aug 14526.617 13325.829
2008 - Sep 14501.490 13241.107
2008 - Oct 14433.308 13201.132
2008 - Nov 14451.352 13244.504
2008 - Dec 14157.240 12981.014
2009 - Jan 14137.576 12893.177
2009 - Feb 14217.456 12948.308
2009 - Mar 14178.967 12938.729
2009 - Apr 14142.839 12899.535
2009 - May 14149.972 12915.427
2009 - Jun 14160.789 12893.676
2009 - Jul 14193.913 12940.415
2009 - Aug 14277.991 12994.658
2009 - Sep 14250.068 12984.160
2009 - Oct 14437.123 13149.067
2009 - Nov 14475.785 13177.500