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Stats Notes for MBA

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Probability Theory Measure of uncertainty

Experiment A Process which results in some well-defined

outcome is known as an experiment.

e.g. - when a coin is tossed, we shall be getting either a Head of a

tail i.e., its outcome is a Head or a Tail, which is well defined.

Random experiment All the outcomes of the experiment are

known in advance, but any specific outcome of the experiment is

not known in advance.

e.g. tossing of a coin is a random experiment, since the

outcomes of the experiment is known in advance (i.e., it can be a

Head or a Tail) but what will come whether Head or Tail is not

known in advance.

Sample Space It is the list of all possible outcomes of an

experiment.

e.g. when 2 coins are tossed together, the random experiment

may result in any of the following:

Head (H) on the first coin and & Head (H) on the second coin

Head (H) on the first coin and & Tail (T) on the second coin

Tail (T) on the first coin and & Head (H) on the second coin

Tail (T) on the first coin and & Tail (T) on the second coin

Thus the corresponding sample space (for this example) denoted

as S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}

Equally Likely Outcomes In case of tossing a coin,

it is known, in advance, that the coin will land with its Head or

Tail up

it is reasonably assumed that each outcome, a Head or a Tail, is

as likely to occur as the other

In other words, we say that there are equal chances for the coin

to land with its Head or Tail up. Hence we say that the outcomes

Head and Tail are equally likely.

In other words, an event is something that happens.

e.g. Consider tossing of 2 similar coins. The possible outcomes

are:

First Coin

H

H

T

T

Second coin

H

T

H

T

Outcome

HH

HT

TH

TT

frequencies are 1, 2 and 1 respectively.

Mutually exclusive events 2 events are said to be mutually

exclusive if both cannot occur simultaneously.

e.g. If a single coin is tossed, the Head and the Tail cannot

occur in the same trial. Hence the event Head and the event

Tail are mutually exclusive. If 2 coins are tossed then the events

{(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)} are mutually exclusive.

Exhaustive Events The total number of all possible outcomes

of a random experiment will constitute an exhaustive set of

events.

e.g. Thus, in tossing of a coin, there are 2 exhaustive events

Head and Tail and in throwing of a die the exhaustive events

are either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. In drawing a single card from a pack of

52 playing cards the events card is red and card is black are

collectively exhaustive.

Classical approach to Probability (Mathematical / Priori

approach)

Probability of an event =

No . of outcomes favorable

the event

Total no . of all possible outcomes

conducting experiment.

is

known

in

advance

before

the upper face of it, then in this experiment, the

Total number of all possible outcomes = 6 (since any of 1, 2, 3, 4,

5, 6 can come on the upper face)

Number of favorable outcomes = 3 (since the even numbers can

be any one of 2, 4, 6)

Hence probability of getting an even number on the upper face =

3/6 =

Relative frequency approach to probability (Statistical /

Posteriori approach)

Probability of an event =

No . of of occurrence of an event

Total no .of trials

experiment are 57 heads and 43 tails, then the

Probability of a Head = 57 / 100 and

Probability of a Tail = 43 / 100

Subjective approach to probability

Probability of an event =

No. of successes

Total no . of trials

on experience or past records. This type of approach is suitable

for a sample size 10

Rules of Probability

Rule of Addition

If A1, A2, .,Am be m mutually exclusive events, then

P(A1 U A2 U U Am) = P(A1) + P(A2) +..+P(Am)

If the events A1, A2, .,Am are mutually exclusive events

and are also exhaustive, then

P(A1 U A2 U U Am) = P(S) = 1 = P(A1) + P(A2) +..+P(Am)

hence, P(A U A) = P(A) + P(A) since A U A = S, it follows that P(A

U A) = P(S) = 1; Therefore P(A) = 1 P(A).

Probability of the event A or B or C (A, B, C are any

events not necessarily mutually exclusive, in the sample

space S) then

P(A U B) = P(B) + P(A) P(A B)

P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A B) P(A C) P(B C)

+ P(A B C)

Conditional Probability Conditional Probability is the

probability of occurrence of an event given that another event has

already occurred.

e.g. Consider the experiment of tossing 3 coins.

space of the experiment is

S = {HHH, HTH, THH, TTH, HHT, HTT, THT, TTT}

The sample

Since the coins are fair, we can assign the probability 1/8 to each

sample point.

Let E be the event at least 2 Heads appear &

Let F be the event as first coin shows tail then

E = {HHH, HTH, THH, HHT} &

F = {THH, TTH, THT, TTT}

E F = {THH}

So P(E) = P(HHH) + P(HTH) + P(THH) + P(HHT) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8

+ 1/8 = 4/8 = 1/2;

P(F) = P(THH) + P(TTH) + P(THT) + P(TTT) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 +

1/8 = 4/8 = 1/2 &

P(E F) = 1/8

Now, suppose we are given that the event F occurs (i.e., the first

coin shows tail), then what is the probability of occurrence of E?

This information reduces our sample space from the set S to its

subset F for the event E.

Thus, probability of E considering F as the sample space = 1/4

of E given that F has already occurred, and is denoted by P(E|F) =

1/4

So P(E|F) =

No. of elementary events favourable

E F F

n(E F)

n( F)

P(E|F) =

n( E F /n(S ))

n(F)/n( S)

P( E F )

, where P(F) 0 i.e., F

P(F )

(empty set)

Problem:

In an organization, out of 200 employees, 40 are having their

monthly salary more than Rs.15000 & 120 of them are regular

takers of Alpha Brand Tea. Out of those 40, who are having their

monthly salary more than Rs.15000, 20 are regular takers of

Alpha Brand Tea. If a particular employee is selected, what is the

probability that he is having a monthly salary more than

Rs.15000, if he is a regular taker of Alpha Brand Tea?

Rule of Multiplication

P(A B) = P(A) P(B|A) = P(B) P(A|B)

If A, B & C are 3 events of sample space, then we have

P(A B C) = P(A) P(B|A) P(C|A B) = P(A) P(B|A) P(C|AB)

Independent events:

2 events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one

event does not influence the occurrence of the other event.

e.g. Successive tosses of a fair coin are independent. If a fair

coin is tossed twice, the event Head in the first toss (assume this

as event A) and the event Head in the 2 nd toss (assume this as

event B) are independent since the occurrence of Head in any

toss does not influence the occurrence of Head of the other toss

and the probability of getting a Head, say, in the second toss,

which is 1/2, does not change, whether in the 1 st toss we get a

event A does not alter the probability of event B.

So when the events A and B are independent, P(A B) = P(A) P(B)

In general, when a finite number of events A 1, A2, .,Am

are independent, we have

P(A1 A2 Am) = P(A1) P(A2)..P(Am)

Problems:

1. What is the probability of getting exactly 2 Heads when 3 coins

are tossed?

2. What is the probability of getting atleast 1 Heads when 3 coins

are tossed?

3. What is the probability of getting a sum of 9 when two dice is

thrown?

4. What is the probability of getting atleast a sum of 9 when two

dice is thrown?

5. A number is selected at random from the numbers 1 to 30.

What is the probability that (i) it is divisible by either 3 or 7 (ii)

it is divisible by 5 or 13

6. The board of directors of a company wants to form a quality

management committee to monitor quality of their products.

The company has 5 scientists, 4 engineers & 6 accountants.

Find the probability that the committee will contain 2 scientists,

1 engineer & 2 accountants?

7. A box contains 5 red & 4 blue similar shaped balls. 2 balls are

drawn at random from the box. Find the probability that both

of them are red if (i) the balls are drawn together (ii) the balls

are drawn one after the other, with replacement (iii) the balls

are drawn one after the other without replacement.

8. The probabilities that A & B will tell the truth are

2

4

3

5

each other (ii) they contradict each other

9. The probabilities that component A & component B of a

machine will fail are 0.09 & 0.06 respectively. The machine will

fail if any one of them fails. Find the probability that it will fail?

10. What is the probability of getting 53 Mondays in a leap year?

x, y, y, y?

12. Find the probability of selecting a King and Queen from a

pack of playing cards, when 2 cards are drawn at a time?

13. The probability of Mr.Sunil solving a problem is

probability of Mr.Anish solving is

1

4 .

3

4 .

The

14. The probability that a company A will survive for 20 years is

0.6. The probability that its sister concern will survive for 20

years is 0.8. What is the probability that atleast one of them

will survive for 20 years?

15. The probabilities that drivers A, B, C will drive home safely

after consuming liquor are

2 3 3

, ,

5 7 4

respectively.

What is the

liquor.

Random Variable A random variable (r.v.) is a real valued

function whose domain is the sample space of a random

experiment.

e.g. Let us consider the experiment of tossing a fair coin 2 times

in succession. The sample space of the experiment is S = {(H, H),

(H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}

If X denotes the number of Heads obtained, then X is a r.v. and

for each outcome, its value is as given below:

X(HH) = 2, X(HT) = 1, X(TH) = 1, X(TT) = 0

More than one r.v. can be defined on the same sample space.

e.g. Let Y denote the no. of heads minus the no. of tails for

each outcome of the above sample space S, then Y is also a r.v.

and for each outcome, its value is as given below:

Y(HH) = 2, Y(HT) = 0, Y(TH) = 0, Y(TT) = -2

Discrete Random Variable This r.v. will take countable no. of

outcomes (as above example).

measuring exact amount rain in inches tomorrow. Here we cant

say it is 2. When we say it is 2 then it should not be even

2.000001 or 1.99999. But we can define this r.v. as means 1.9

< X < 2.1, where X denotes the amount of rain

Probability Distributions

In some researches, after data collection, the next step is to

present the data in the form of a probability distribution which will

facilitate further analysis of data in more meaningful ways.

The probability distribution can be classified into discrete

probability distribution and continuous probability distribution.

Some examples of discrete probability distributions are Binomial,

Poisson distribution

Some examples of continuous probability distributions are

Exponential distribution, Uniform distribution, Normal distribution,

t-distribution

Discrete Probability Distribution

In an experiment, events can be represented in the form of

frequencies, which can be easily converted into the respective

probabilities by dividing them with the total no. of outcomes.

Consider the case of tossing 3 coins simultaneously. The no. of

outcomes of this experiment is 8 and the outcomes are {HHH,

HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

i.e., HHH 3 Heads

HHT 2 Heads and 1 Tail

HTH 2 Heads and 1 Tail

HTT 1 Head and 2 Tails

THH 2 Heads and 1 Tail

THT 1 Head and 2 Tails

TTH 1 Head and 2 Tails

TTT 3 Tails

Therefore, the events of this experiment are 3 Heads, 2 Heads

and 1 Tail, 1 Head and 2 Tails, 3 Tails and the frequencies are

1,3,3,1 respectively.

Probability Distribution of

the experiment

Probability

# of

of

outcome occurrenc

Even s of the

e of the

t

event

event

HHH 1

1/8

HHT 3

3/8

HTT 3

3/8

TTT

1

1/8

Total

1

The discrete probability distribution of tossing 3 coins is

calculated as follows:

The events of this experiment are HHH, HHT, HTT & TTT. Let X be

a r.v. defined as the no. of Heads in the event occurrence, which is

probabilistic.

The events HHH, HHT, HTT, TTT can be defined as follows:

X = 0, when the event is TTT (i.e., no. of Heads is 0)

X = 1, when the event is HTT (i.e., no. of Heads is 1)

X = 2, when the event is HHT (i.e., no. of Heads is 2)

X = 3, when the event is HHH (i.e., no. of Heads is 3)

Based on this, the probability distribution is

1 /8, if X =03

3/8,if X=12

0, otherwise

P(X) =

Continuous Probability Distribution

Let us consider the following function to demonstrate the concept

of the continuous distribution:

f(x) =

3 x 23 x +1.5,if 0 x 1

0, ot h erwise

in the specified range should be 1.

The value of the cumulative distribution can be obtained by

integrating f(x) as shown below:

1

f ( x) dx

0

(3 x 23 x +1.5) dx

0

=1

probability distribution (also called as probability density function.

In this distribution, the variable X is a continuous r.v. because its

value is continuous in the range from 0 to 1.

Hence the

probability distribution is a continuous probability distribution.

The cumulative function of a probability density function is called

cumulative density function (c.d.f.)

Problem:

Let X denotes the no. of hours you study during a randomly

selected school day. The probability that X can take the values x,

has the following form, where k is some unknown constant.

{0.1, if x = 0

P(X = x) = {kx, if x = 1 or 2

{k(5 - x), if x = 3 or 4

{0, otherwise

a. Find the value of k?

b. What is the probability that you study at least 2 hours?

Exactly 2 hours? At most 2 hours?

Problem:

Find the probability distribution of no. of doublets in 3 throws of a

pair of dice.

Mean of a r.v. X = Expected value of X = Expectation of X =

E(X) = xipi

xi2pi

Problem:

2 cards are drawn simultaneously (or successively without

replacements) from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the

mean, variance and standard deviation of the no. of kings.

Theoretical Probability Distributions

Binomial Distribution

It is a discrete probability distribution based on Bernoulli process.

In a game between 2 persons using a coin-tossing experiment, let

the occurrence of Head in a trial be a success to one person & the

occurrence of tail be a failure to the same person.

So, in a trial of tossing a coin, the probability of a success (p) to

the person is 0.5 & the probability of failure (q = 1 p) to the

same person is 0.5

If n repeated trials are performed, then the objective of the

game may be to find the probability of having x successes for

the person. This experiment is termed as Bernoulli Process in

which n repeated trials are performed with the following

assumptions:

In the experiment, there are only 2 mutually exclusive &

collectively exhaustive events.

The probability of occurrence of the events of the experiment, are

same in all the trials.

In all the n trials, the observations are independent of one

another.

Based on these fundamentals, the binomial probability

distribution is represented as follows:

P(x successes in n trials given p is the probability of success)

= nCx px qn-x, where x = 0, 1, 2,..,n; where n = No. of trials; p =

probability of success in a trial; q = probability of failure in a trial

(= 1- p); Here n & p are parameters.

nCx px qn-x

The cumulative distribution function of the binomial distribution is

P(X = x) = nCx px qn-x = 1

Problem Based on past experience, the quality control engineer

of Heavy Electrical Limited has estimated that the probability of

commissioning each project in time at a client site is 0.9; The

Company is planning to commission 5 such projects in the

forthcoming year. Find the probability of commissioning (a) no

project in time (b) 2 projects in time (c) at most one project in

time & (d) at least 2 projects in time.

Mean & Variance of binomial distribution

Mean = np & Variance = npq

Problem If the probability of a defective bolt is 0.1, find the

mean & the s.d. of defective bolts in total of 900?

Probability of a defective bolt = p = 0.1 q = 1 0.1 = 0.9

Mean = np = 900 * 0.1 = 90

Variance = npq = (np)q = 90(0.9) = 81

Hence Standard Deviation = 9

Problem:

a. Eight coins are tossed at a time, 256 times. Find the expected

frequencies of successes (getting a head) and tabulate the

results obtained.

b. Also obtain the values of the mean & SD of the theoretical

(fitted) distribution.

Problem:

Fit a binomial distribution to the following data:

x

0

1

2

3

f

28

62

46

10

4

4

Poisson distribution

It is a discrete probability distribution. This is usually used to

represent the no. of occurrence of an event in one unit of time.

Binomial probability distribution under the following conditions:

1. n, the number of trials is indefinitely large, i.e., n

2. p, the probability of success for each trial is indefinitely small,

i.e., p 0

3. np = (say), is finite

Under the above 3 conditions the binomial probability function

tends to the probability function of the Poisson distribution given

below:

P(X = x) = e- x , x= 0, 1, 2, ..,

x!

In this probability mass function, is the only parameter

Mean & Variance of Poisson distribution

Mean = Variance =

Approximation of binomial distribution to Poisson distribution

The binomial distribution can be approximated to Poisson

distribution under any of the following conditions.

n 20 & p 0.05

n 100 & np 10

If any one of the above 2 conditions is satisfied, then the mean of

the Poisson distribution is = np

Problem:

The arrival rate of customers arriving at a bank counter follows

Poisson distribution with a mean arrival rate of 4 per 10 minutes

interval. Find the probability that

1. exactly 0 customer will arrive in 10 minutes interval

2. exactly 2 customers will arrive in 10 minutes interval

3. at most 2 customers will arrive in 10 minutes interval

4. at least 3 customers will arrive in 10 minutes interval

Given e-4 = 0.0183

Problem:

The QC assistant takes a sample of 25 units of a product at a

particular work station of a production line & inspects them one

probability of one unit will be defective is 0.04.

Find the

probability that

1. no piece in the sample is defective

2. 3 pieces in the sample will be defective

3. At most 2 pieces will be defective

4. At least 3 pieces will be defective

Given e-1 = 0.3678

Problem:

It is known from the past experience that in a certain plant there

are on the average 4 industrial accidents per month. Find the

probability that in a given year, there will be less than 4

accidents. Assume Poisson distribution (Given e -4 = 0.0183)

Problem:

Suppose on an average 1 house in 1000 in a certain district has a

fire during a year. If there are 2000 houses in that district, what is

the probability that exactly 5 houses will have a fire during the

year?

Given e-2 = 0.1353

Problem:

The following table gives the number of days in a 100 day period

during which automobile accidents occurred in a city. Fit a

Poisson distribution to the data.

No. of accidents

0

1

2

3

4

No. of days

40

35

15

6

4

Normal Distribution

It is a continuous probability distribution. The behavior of many

of the real-life situations can be modeled as normal distribution.

Some examples which follow normal distribution are as follows:

Monthly salary of employees in a locality

Internal diameter of bearings produced in a company

Marks of students in an entrance test

Height of employees in a company

Weight of employees in a company

parameters & 2, denoted as X ~ N(,2) if the p.d.f. of the r.v. X

is given by

f(x) =

1

exp[-(x )2/22),

(2)

- < X <

distribution with mean () and variance (2), then its r.v. can be

converted into a standard normal r.v. using the following

transformation:

Z=X-

The corresponding

distribution is called standard normal distribution, whose formula

is as given below:

P(Z) = 1

(2)

exp[-Z2/2),

- < Z <

and 1, respectively.

Problem: In a survey with a sample of 300 respondents, the

monthly income of the respondents follows normal distribution

with its mean and s.d. as Rs.15000 and Rs.3000 respectively.

(a) What is the probability that the monthly income is less than

Rs.12000? Also, find the no. of respondents having income less

than Rs.12000?

(b) What is the probability that the monthly income is more than

Rs.16000? Also, find the no. of respondents having income less

than Rs.16000?

(c) What is the probability that the monthly income is in

between Rs.10000 & Rs.17000? Also, find the no. of

respondents having income in between Rs.10000 & Rs.17000?

are estimated to be normally distributed with mean of 60 &

standard deviation of 8. How many students are expected to

score (a) More than 70 marks (b) Between 50 & 75 marks (c) If

top 5% of the students are to be given scholarships, what is the

eligible mark for the scholarships?

Problem: Steel rods are manufactured to be 3 inches in diameter

but they are acceptable if they are inside the limits 2.99 inches &

3.01 inches. It is observed that 5% are rejected as oversize & 5%

are rejected as undersize. Assuming that the diameters are

normally distributed, find the standard deviation of the

distribution. Hence find, what the proportion of rejects would be,

if the permissible limits were widened to 2.985 inches and 3.015

inches.

Problem: In a certain exam, 31% of the students got less than 45

marks & 8% of the students got more than 64 marks. Assuming

the distribution to be normal, find the mean & SD of the marks

Problem: The frequency distribution of a national survey on cars

is shown below:

No. of

0.000.501.001.502.002.50cars

0.49

0.99

1.49

1.99

2.49

2.99

Frequen

2

14

23

7

4

2

cy

a) Calculate the variance and SD

b) How many of the observation should theoretically fall

between 0.7 and 1.8, if the distribution is bell-shaped?

Problem: The manager of a small postal substation is trying to

quantify the variation in the weekly demand for mailing bags.

She has decided to assume that this demand is normally

distributed.

She knows that on an average 100 bags are

purchased weekly and that, 90% of the time, weekly demand is

below 115.

a) What is the standard deviation of this distribution?

so that the probability of running out of stock of bags is no

higher than 0.05. How much she should stock?

Uniform Distribution

This is a continuous probability distribution which has wider

practical applications.

More specifically, it has more use in

simulation. Let us assume that the distribution of the daily

demand of a product is uniformly distributed with 10 +/- 2 units.

The minimum daily demand is 8 and the maximum daily demand

is 12.

Now in general let the minimum daily demand & maximum daily

demand be a & b respectively.

Let X is a continuous r.v. & the probability of occurrence for the

values of the r.v. X in the range a & b is constant & it is 0 for all

values of the r.v. outside the interval a to b. The formula for the

corresponding uniform distribution is

P(X = x) =

1

, a x b

ba

0, otherwise

b

ba

ba

P( X=x)dx

a

dx

ba

a+b

2

&

=1

( ba )2

12

Problem:

In a private canteen, the daily demand for packed meals follows

uniform distribution as below:

P(X) = 1 / (450 230),

230 X 450

= 0, otherwise

If the service level of satisfying the demand of the canteen is 0.8,

find the highest possible demand which can be satisfied w.r.t. the

given service level (cumulative probability)

Problem:

Let the continuous r.v. X denote the current measured in a thin

copper wire in milliamperes. Assume that the range of X is [0,

20mA], and assume that the p.d.f. of X is f(x) = 0.05, 0 x 20 ;

What is the probability that a measurement of current is between

5 and 10 mA?

Exponential Distribution

It is a continuous probability distribution. This distribution is used

to represent the time interval between consecutive occurrence of

an event, like inter-arrival time of customers, service time for

customers, mean time between failures in maintenance activity,

etc.

Consider the example of the service time of customers in a

queuing system. Generally the service time in a queuing example

is a random variable which follows exponential distribution. Let

the no. of customers served per unit time (service rate) be .

Therefore, the service time is (1/).

If r.v. X follows exponential distribution, then the probability

density function f(x) = e-x, x 0

The r.v. X that equals the distance between successive events of

a Poisson process with mean > 0 is an exponential random

variable with parameter . The p.d.f. of X is

f(x) = e-x for 0 x

E(X) = =

& = V(X) =

2

1

2

;

P(X x) = 1 - e-x, for x 0

P(X x) = e-x, for x 0

x

P(x1 X x2) = e

x

- e , for 0 x1 < x2

1

Problem:

In an international airport, the service time for servicing flights by

a terminal follows exponential distribution. The service rate of a

terminal servicing the flights is 20 per day. Find the probability

that the service time of the terminal in clearing a flight is less

than 0.45 hour.

Problem:

In a mainframe computer centre, execution time of programs

follows exponential distribution. The average execution time of

the programs is 5 minutes. Find the probability that the execution

time of programs is

(a) Less than 4 minutes

(b) More than 6 minutes

(HintAverage execution time is 5 minutes; Means the execution

rate is (1/5) = )

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