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Help wanted: salaries, affordability and the exodus of labour

from Metro Vancouver


May 2015

Highlights
Metro Vancouvers future growth is dependent on the availability of high-quality labour, which is now threatened
by the rapid increase in the cost of living, driven primarily by unaffordable housing.
Millennials are the next generation of workers and are highly educated and very mobile. Up to 93 per cent of
Millennials plan to own a home sometime in the future. Metro Vancouvers housing crisis will motivate this group to
migrate away in search of better opportunities, leading to a labour crisis.
One primary cause is that salaries are not keeping pace with increased housing costs. Between 2001 and 2014, the
cost of Metro Vancouver housing increased by 63 per cent, while salaries only rose by 36.2 per cent.
The high cost of housing is already pricing many in-demand workers out of Metro Vancouver. On average, the salary
required to maintain the average mortgage in the region is $78,088. Many occupations that the province relies upon
for its economic engine do not meet this threshold.
In the future, Vancouver housing is projected to rise by 4.87 per cent a year, but slow salary growth will continue:
wage rate growth for in-demand occupations will rise only between 0.6 per cent and 3.2 per cent.
By 2020, 82 of 88 in-demand jobs will be unable to afford a single-family home in Metro Vancouver.
By 2025, 85 of 88 in-demand jobs will be unable to afford to live in Metro Vancouver. Only those individuals
working as senior business managers, senior construction managers and engineering managers will be able to
maintain affordable housing.
In ten years, most individuals may forgo a career opportunity in the region and relocate to a different labour
market. If there is an abundance of outward migration, a labour crisis will occur.

Make Good Money (TM) is a trademark of Vancouver City Savings Credit Union.

A growing and vibrant economy creates increased demand


for workers to fuel that growth. High-quality, highly
skilled labour is a vital factor of production, especially in a
knowledge-intensive economy such as Vancouvers. More
than one million new workers are expected to be needed
in British Columbia by 2022, with around 640,000 required
in the Mainland/Southwest region alone.i Business growth
and maintenance of quality public services are dependent
upon adding these jobs to the workforce. But what if there
are no workers to fill these new positions?

aged 15 to 33, and almost all those surveyed said they plan
to buy a home at some point in their lives.v
Millennials are very mobile and the most highly educated
generation ever,vi and future labour markets depend on
wooing these workers. Areas with a high cost of living due
to increasingly unaffordable housing will be at a significant
disadvantage in the near future. It is entirely likely that
this desire will motivate Millennials to migrate away from
Metro Vancouver in search of better opportunities. In fact,
the knife edge of that trend has already started: in 2013,
Vancouver suffered a net loss of 1,571 residents in the 20
to 30 age group, up from 770 the year before.vii This net
outflow is not surprising when growth in incomes is so
dramatically lagging behind growth in key expenses.

Labour is required to turn capital into growth. However, a


concerning trend is emerging: an ever-increasing cost of
living in Metro Vancouver, led by the high cost of housing,
is threatening the regions ability to attract workers.
Because of the current crisis in Metro Vancouvers housing
economics, the future labour market holds a significant risk
of decreased supply if nothing changes, fewer and fewer
candidates will be answering employers Help Wanted signs.

Incomes: salary growth stagnating


in B.C.
Between 2001 and 2014, average hourly wage rates for
full-time work in the province have grown 36.2%, which
equates to 2.2% per year.viii However, due to the underlying
labour market performance of different sectors, certain
occupational groups have experienced a higher than
average wage rate growth.

The impact of housing on the job


market for Millennials
The emerging class of Millennials those born from
about 1980 to 2000 are knowledge workers that are
increasingly mobile. One of the primary factors that
potential employees consider when pursuing a new job
is net income, not gross salary. If the cost of living in a
particular area is too high, then workers are likely to look
elsewhere to maximize their disposable income. The
primary indicator of long-term cost of living is housing
affordability.

Highest five wage growth


170.0
index (2001 = 100)
150.0
130.0

There is ample evidence linking housing affordability


problems with labour shortages. In many of the recent
labour market demand and supply analyses conducted by
Roslyn Kunin and Associates, one of the major detriments
in employee recruitment and retention has been the
high cost of housing.ii For example, a recent news article
reported that body armour manufacturer Pacific Safety
Products Inc. [is] closing its remaining operations in
Kelowna and moving to Ottawa, citing labour shortages
due to the soaring cost of housing in British Columbia.iii

110.0
90.0
2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

The top five occupational groups for growth are in:


art, culture, recreation and sports (59.9%)
management (46.2%)
senior management (39.2%)
primary industry (38.8%)
the health professions, including nurse supervisors and
registered nurses (38.0%)
total employed, all occupations

Contrary to popular belief, Millennials are just as likely


to aspire to home ownership as previous generations.
Last year, Millennials made up the largest group of recent
buyers in the U.S. market (32%) and over 80% of millennial
and GenX buyers consider home purchase a good financial
investment.iv This trend is mirrored north of the border:
Yconic/Uthink surveyed 1,538 English-speaking Canadians

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 282-0070 -


Labour force survey estimates (LFS)

Although some occupations have experienced above-average


wage growth during this time period, not all labourers have
seen their incomes grow at this level. The bottom five
occupational groups for growth are listed below.

enough to finance a sustainable lifestyle. Comparing


current market rates for housing and for labour can
determine which occupations can or cannot afford to live
in the region.
Based on the B.C. governments recent employment
outlook,ix some of the jobs that are projected to generate
the highest demand in Metro Vancouver include such
occupations as computer programmers, trades contractors,
registered nurses and administrative officers. But is
economic growth possible if these workers cannot afford
housing in the area? To measure this, a model was set up to
compare median employment income of occupations with
average housing cost.

Lowest five wage growth


140.0
index (2001 = 100)

130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
2001

2004

2007

2010

In 2014, the average Metro Vancouver resale property cost


$713,125.x After a 20% down-payment, this purchase price
translates into a monthly mortgage commitment of $3,280 at
current rates. To maintain debt-load at an affordable level, the
household would need to make $123,000 per year. Correcting
for the fact that 57.5% of British Columbia households are
dual-earning, the affordability threshold per earner becomes
$78,088.1 Analyzing jobs that have a median income over this
threshold can determine which occupations can actually
afford real estate in Metro Vancouver.

2013

clerical occupations, including supervisors (27.6%)


some sales and service occupations (25.0% )
technical, assisting and related occupations in health (24.5%)
childcare and home support workers (21.8%)
labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities (10.4%)
total employed, all occupations
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 282-0070 -
Labour force survey estimates (LFS)

Comparing this threshold with the provincial estimation


of high demand jobs to 2022, it becomes obvious that
the salary levels of jobs required for economic growth
are too low to allow these workers to live affordably.
The following is a list of these projected high-demand
occupations. Those shaded currently do not meet the
affordability threshold to purchase a home.

Furthermore, salary growth seems to be slowing. Fiveyear peak growth during the period was between 2005
and 2009, with salaries rising on average 3% per year. Yet
the last five years (2010 to 2014) have only seen growth of
1.3% per year. This trend reveals stagnating salary growth
province-wide, resulting in less disposable income for
residents as expenses rise.

Expenses: salaries are not keeping


pace with the housing market

In Vancouver, between 2001 and 2014:

While average wages have increased 36.2% between 2001


and 2014, average home resale value in Metro Vancouver
has risen by almost 63% over the same period. This issue
is most stark in the City of Vancouver, where values have
risen by 211%. This means that mortgage payments on
a newly purchased home in Vancouver are costing the
average household almost 76% of its gross annual income.
The fact that the housing market is so dramatically
outpacing wage increases is cause for concern. As a result,
there may be demand for certain occupations in Metro
Vancouver but those occupations may not pay employees

Average wages have increased 36.2%


Average home values have increased 211%

Couple-family households with children: 24.4%; Couple-family households without children: 30.2%; Multiple-family households: 2.9%. Statistics Canada,
Census metropolitan area of Vancouver, British Columbia. Accessed May 15, 2015.
www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-cma-eng.cfm?LANG=Eng&GK=CMA&GC=933

Management occupations
Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

$143,624.90

Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

$131,237.15

Engineering managers

$124,047.11

Managers in transportation

$82,355.81

Construction managers

$81,453.03

Facility operation and maintenance managers

$69,307.84

Accommodation service managers

$51,384.82

Home building and renovation managers

$49,146.35

Restaurant and food service managers

$41,793.54

Business, finance and administration occupations


Professional occupations in business management consulting

$71,155.54

Human resources professionals

$70,261.86

Financial auditors and accountants

$64,403.74

Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations

$60,241.77

Purchasing agents and officers

$58,926.99

Executive assistants

$58,807.16

Property administrators

$53,098.52

Administrative officers

$50,005.63

Legal administrative assistants

$49,177.61

Accounting technicians and bookkeepers

$45,073.18

Administrative assistants

$44,119.94

Accounting and related clerks

$44,045.97

General office support workers

$43,887.03

Receptionists

$35,695.17

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations


Electrical and electronics engineers

$95,522.54

Civil engineers

$86,711.29

Mechanical engineers

$86,073.48

Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety

$76,148.74

Computer programmers and interactive media developers

$74,319.05

Construction inspectors

$72,821.16

Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians

$68,663.57

Drafting technologists and technicians

$57,453.54

Health occupations
Specialist physicians

$112,056.12

General practitioners and family physicians

$82,863.43

Medical sonographers

$76,668.65

Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses

$74,710.22

Medical radiation technologists

$72,450.23

Physiotherapists

$70,083.52

Medical laboratory technologists

$69,467.98

Audiologists and speech-language pathologists

$68,511.97

Occupational therapists

$63,166.47

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services


Lawyers

$109,333.80

University professors and lecturers

$95,972.54

Police officers (except commissioned)

$92,485.99

Firefighters

$85,754.04

College and other vocational instructors

$76,931.33

Social workers

$65,995.49

Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants

$65,707.57

Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers

$64,887.59

Family, marriage and other related counsellors

$58,916.76

Social and community service workers

$44,157.19

Early childhood educators and assistants

$31,662.68

Home child care providers

$19,713.63

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport


Authors and writers

$ 54,063.06

Interior designers and interior decorators

$ 45,307.09

Program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness

$ 32,135.33

Sales and service occupations


Retail and wholesale buyers

$50,116.85

Chefs

$40,331.16

Retail sales supervisors

$38,358.03

Retail salespersons

$34,915.73

Security guards and related security service occupations

$34,723.05

Bakers

$33,150.66

Cooks

$29,163.50

Food and beverage servers

$20,008.35

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations


Industrial electricians

$85,786.04

Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews

$77,215.62

Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics

$76,786.87

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics

$76,580.35

Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers

$75,784.15

Crane operators

$70,790.26

Gas fitters

$67,947.53

Machinists and machining and tooling inspectors

$65,552.11

Heavy equipment operators (except crane)

$65,435.53

Electricians (except industrial and power system)

$65,366.36

Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades

$64,657.71

Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers


and servicers

$63,939.02

Welders and related machine operators

$59,703.09

Plumbers

$57,573.65

Sheet metal workers

$57,546.17

Transport truck drivers

$56,251.54

Concrete finishers

$49,070.25

Carpenters

$47,191.03

Residential and commercial installers and servicers

$45,182.69

Material handlers

$45,155.23

Painters and decorators (except interior decorators)

$43,646.49

Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers

$42,346.76

Delivery and courier service drivers

$38,263.59

Taxi and limousine drivers and chauffeurs

$29,501.49

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities


Power engineers and power systems operators

$ 85,423.27

Source: Statistics Canada - 2011 National Household Survey, values updated to 2014 figures by Vancity.

With the rising cost of housing in Metro Vancouver, many


of the more moderately paid occupations are already
finding themselves priced out of the real estate market. As
mentioned, the imbalance between occupational incomes
and housing expenses is a key indicator of the economic
viability of a region. Could this result in an economic
stagnation in the future? This possibility becomes even
more clear as current trends are projected forwards.

Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership


Realities for Millennials and Beyond published by Vancity
indicates that if housing markets continue their current
rise, the average Metro Vancouver resale price will reach
almost $1.5 million by 2030.xi The city of Vancouver
itself will see average prices of $2.2 million. Yet, with
occupational employment demand expected in the Metro
Vancouver labour market, wage-rate growth for in-demand
occupations will only rise between 0.6% and 3.2%. As the
gap between housing costs and salaries increases, fewer
individuals will be able to afford to live in the region.

Looking forward: what professions will


be able to afford Metro Vancouver?

By 2020, 82 of 88 in-demand jobs will be unable to afford


a single-family home in Metro Vancouver. By this time,
some very notable professions will find it significantly more

If trends continue, more and more occupations will be


priced out of the Metro Vancouver market. The report,

difficult to afford property, including industrial electricians, civil engineers, construction managers, police officers, firefighters and
general practitioners. The occupations which will make more than the required $101,238 per year are listed below.

Occupation

2020 est.

Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

$ 164,095.18

Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

$ 149,941.86

Engineering managers

$ 141,727.05

Specialist physicians

$ 117,168.27

Lawyers

$ 113,736.39

Electrical and electronics engineers

$ 105,538.70

By 2025, only three occupations remain on the list making enough from their employment to afford housing in Metro
Vancouver: $125,692. At this point, lawyers, electrical engineers and specialist physicians fall off the list.

Occupation

2025 est.

Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services

$ 183,365.48

Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities

$ 167,550.08

Engineering managers

$ 158,370.57

The fact is the rate of projected wage growth is not


anywhere as fast as the rate of the projected price
increase of a single-family home in Metro Vancouver. If
house prices continue their increase at the speed that has
been observed during the recent past, even the bestpaying jobs will be unable to keep up.

Individuals within the region may adopt types of


housing arrangements within the region that are more
affordable, such as renting, or find other unique living
arrangements that share the high cost of housing among
multiple households.
Today, Millennials face challenges and barriers that seem
insurmountable to overcome. They still face the lingering
effects from the 2008 global financial crisis, having
stayed in the post-secondary education system longer
than previous generations in the hope of finding better
employment opportunities. In reality, they face a meagre
labour market. Metro Vancouvers sky-rocketing house
prices can only serve to be a detriment for those serious
about establishing a career in the region.

Implications and costs of inaction


The housing affordability realities faced by Millennials
could lead to several scenarios in the labour market.
Given this research, most individuals may forgo a career
opportunity in the region and relocate to a different
labour market. If there is an abundance of outward
migration, a labour crisis will occur.

A healthy economy is reflected by its citizens who are


productive, by its business community which is vibrant and
providing a real choice of careers and opportunities, by its
public services which support a quality lifestyle, and by a
labour market that is functioning to maximize its resources
the human capital.

Employers who are committed to attracting and


keeping the brightest talent will have to pay more in
wages or to provide other creative non-wage benefits,
although it will still be difficult to keep pace with
the price of housing. This increases the cost of doing
business in the region. Some of that cost will be passed
on to consumers, further increasing the cost of living.

Metro Vancouver is increasingly becoming a regional hub


for trans-Pacific trade and financial services. It is also
rapidly developing into a technology centre.xii To develop
into a sustainable economy in these areas, the region
requires a healthy supply of the highly skilled, highly
value-adding professionals, and occupations that are lesser

Individuals may continue to live with the high cost of


housing, forgoing expenses to pursue other necessities,
such as RESP and RRSP savings.

skilled, lesser paid yet functionally just as important. This


is the only way to create a competitive edge in the future.

While the Conference Board of Canada study emphasized


the socio-economic impact of lack of affordable housing,
an Australian study has shown direct links between housing
affordability and labour market efficiency, or housing
unaffordability and labour market inefficiency:

Past research has shown that inefficient urban labour


markets result in an underperforming urban economy:
resources are not allocated to the most productive uses
and, over time, there is a loss in potential economic
output. These effects are not confined to a depressed
employment sector in an urban economy, inefficiency in
one sector results in widespread negative effects for all.

Housing markets, it is feared, are pricing low and


moderate income households out of job-rich areas
and injecting a spatial dimension to supply-side
constraints on economic growth. Moderately paid
workers essential to the smooth functioning of
the urban economy are less able to find and keep
employment. Spatial dislocation of housing and
labour markets also increases the probability of
job informational deficits and asymmetries and job
search costs, imposing further efficiency costs on
the economy. Poor housing affordability, in this view,
results in both increasing housing stress (housingrelated poverty) and urban economic inefficiency.xiv

Labour market inefficiency occurs when the availability


of labour or the distribution of labour do not reach their
best allocation. The former refers to the lack of skilled
labour required. The latter refers to the lack of access
to labour at the most efficient cost. In either case, they
negatively impact the pace of growth in the economy and,
therefore, the competitiveness of the economy.
The recent Conference Board of Canada report, Skills
for Success: Occupations, Credentials, and Skills for
a Prosperous B.C. quantified the economic impact of
potential skills gaps in the labour market. It concluded that:

Recommendations
As this report has found, one of the primary causes of a
labour crisis in Metro Vancouver will be the high cost of
living driven by unaffordable housing. To avoid this, policy
and behaviour responses should focus on ways of improving
access to future workers, both by reducing the cost of
housing as well as increasing salaries. These responses will not
address the equally pressing issue of ensuring that education
and skills match future supply and demand.

Skills gaps associated with low educational attainment


among many B.C. residents cost the provincial economy
up to $4.7 billion annually in foregone GDP as well as
$775 million in federal tax revenues and $616 million in
provincial tax revenues.
Underutilization of the skills of highly educated British
Columbians may cost the province up to $1.3 billion
in foregone GDP annually as well as $212 million in
federal tax revenues and $169 million in provincial tax
revenues.

For government:
Inclusionary zoning: Build affordability targets into
municipal zoning bylaws right from the outset through
inclusionary zoning. This gives developers the right to
develop market housing only if they include a certain
amount of non-market housing in the development.
Inclusionary zoning differs from bonus density, which
rewards developers with additional market-rate
development density to develop market condos in
exchange for below-market rate contributions they make
to delivering affordable housing units (and/or other
community amenities like libraries, childcare, public art, etc.).
Integrating below-market housing options into development
rights helps to manage the land value.

Firm-level impacts of skills gaps and mismatches


include inconsistent product and service quality, lower
productivity, lower sales, loss of new opportunities, and
lower profits.
Individual-level impacts of skills deficits include higher
unemployment, lower earnings, poorer physical and
mental health, weaker community engagement and
lower life satisfaction.
A 2010 report also by the Conference Board of Canada
concluded that:
Currently, there is an appreciable shortage of
good-quality, advantageously located, and
affordable housing in Canada. This shortage is
having a detrimental effect on Canadians health,
which, in turn, reduces their productivity, limits our
national competitiveness, and indirectly drives up
the cost of health care and welfare.xiii

Rental housing tax incentives: The federal government


should provide rental housing tax incentives to owners
of long-term, purpose-built rental housing to make
development of rental housing as competitive as market
condominiums. This form of incentive would encourage
better location and maintenance of rental housing by
enabling competition between developers for tax credits.

For business:

Land lease renewals: Many existing affordable housing


developments in particular, not-for-profit housing cooperatives were built on land secured under long-term
leases from municipalities or other government agencies
and are coming up for renewal in the next 10 to 15 years.
The leases for affordable housing stock that exist on public
lands should be renewed and, where appropriate, coupled
with a redevelopment approach that maximizes affordable
and community-owned units on the site.

Living wage: Wages should be at an adequate level to


meet a familys basic needs. This rate varies by community
because it reflects costs associated with a specific place.
Businesses should know the living wage of their employees
and seek to raise wages if required to allow for sustainable
work.
Benefits: Flexible benefits could also bring household
incomes and expenses into greater alignment. Flexible work
hours can help homeowners maximize household income by
helping a couple to both engage in full-time employment.
Job sharing can improve household income by allowing a
second earner to enter the workforce. Transit benefits can
help decrease expenses by taking a car off the road.

Repurposing public and community-owned land: There


is significant inventory of urban land owned by public
agencies and community-based organizations (including
churches, legions, not-for-profit organizations, etc.). This
land base should be inventoried and creative incentives
should be developed to repurpose that land to deliver
financially sustainable mixed-tenure and mixed-use
developments that maximize affordable residential units.

Relocating: In the medium term, businesses could move


offices to higher density business cores serviced by public
transit.

Workforce housing inclusion: When large new firms


establish themselves in urban centres and inject significant
numbers of new employees into the region, there should
be a strategic way of addressing their associated demand on
housing. This could range from incentives for those entities
to develop workforce housing as part of their attraction
package through to inclusionary requirements to deliver
housing units commensurate to any new office or industrial
developments.

Advocate for affordable housing: Labour is a key cost of


production in a knowledge economy. Inadequate supply
of workers can increase costs whereas adequate supply of
workers can reduce costs. Businesses should advocate for
affordable housing solutions to attract and retain workers
by reducing the cost of living.
Explore options for investing in affordable housing:
Businesses, either alone or together, could explore options
for investing in affordable housing for their workforce. This
could generate an investment or revenue stream at the
same time as providing reduced costs for workers.

Focus on supply: Provincial, regional and municipal


governments need to work with their communities to
create incentives that maximize the efficient use of existing
housing stock to serve housing needs. Much effort is placed
on the demand for affordable housing, but new efforts
could be focused on managing the supply side.

For individuals:
Evaluate renting versus buying: Millennials should seriously
consider the financial costs and benefits of ownership. If
ownership does not currently make financial sense, institute
an automated savings and investment plan that can build
equity over the long term.

Harmonize affordable housing strategies: Regional


authorities should continue to work to harmonize
affordable housing zoning strategies among their member
municipalities. The Province of British Columbia has
published a set of guides for municipal governments
to broker community amenity contributions in a legally
sound way that follows good planning practice and avoids
increasing housing costs through the process. Regional
and provincial governments should continue to support
municipalities to increase their sophistication in real
estate economics and brokering inclusionary residential
developments.

Embrace multi-family living: Residents should work together


and embrace new forms of multi-family living and owning
arrangements, such as housing co-operatives, co-housing
and co-ownership.
Think smaller: Households should reduce their footprint by
considering a smaller space with multi-functional use and
furnishings.
Live with others: Households could consider
intergenerational community living.

Methodology

Potential number of new job openings for each of


the four-digit NOC occupations concerned has been
projected by applying the applicable employment
growth rate to the base employment number in 2011.

For this report, Roslyn Kunin and Associates conducted


extensive research of secondary information and statistical
data available from Statistics Canada, BC Stats, labour
market information websites has been applied.

To derive potential number of job openings due to


attrition needs (to replace those who will leave the
workforce due to retirement or death) every year
between 2011 and 2022, the attrition ratios to each fourdigit NOC occupation concerned have been applied.

The following data sources have been investigated:


Statistics Canada, such as in the Labour Force Survey,
National Household Survey, and the Censuses;

Potential total job openings are the sum of openings


due to new economic activities and openings due to
the need to replace the workers who will have left the
workforce due to retirement or death.

BC Stats, such as Establishment Counts by Industry;


Occupational labour demand outlook available from the
provincial governments publication;
Recent major studies of employer needs and education
and training requirements (for example, the forthcoming
Occupations, Credentials, and Skills for a Prosperous
BC, by the Conference Board of Canada);

A ratio of full-time wage rate growth to employment


growth for each of the 32 two-digit NOC-S occupational
groupings as per data available from Statistics Canadas
Labour Force Survey has been created.xvi The ratios
allow for a comparison of wage growth and employment
growth for the same occupational group in Metro
Vancouver since 2001.

Other occupational/industry analysis associated with


technological advancement and economic development
trends in regions, countries around the world; and
Journal and news articles on housing affordability and
labour market mobility.

Median (full-time) employment income in 2014 dollar


values has been calculated based on actual growth in full
time wage rates by occupational group (from the same
source as above) between 2010 and 2014.

The following is a description outlining the procedures to project


the potential number of job openings in Metro Vancouver,
and potential wage growth associated with the jobs.

The ratios of full-time wage growth to employment


growth by occupational group to specific four-digit
NOC occupations for which employment growth by
2022 has been projected have been applied to project
a corresponding range of full-time full-year earnings
values in 2022 and beyond.

Detailed employment by occupation data available from


Statistics Canadas 2011 National Household Survey for
estimates of the number of employed by occupation
(using National Occupational Classification for Statistics
NOC-S) in Metro Vancouver in 2011 has been obtained.xv
From the same source data on median (full-time)
employment income associated with each occupation
(using NOC-2011) has been obtained.
The specific employment growth rate applicable to a
four-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC2011) code between 2012 and 2022 is from the WorkBC
Labour Market Navigator Tool, for the Mainland/
Southwest Development Region.
The same WorkBC Labour Market Navigator Tool also
provides range of regional hourly wage rates applicable
to a four-digit NOC code from the Job Bank Wage
Report. Also available from the Tool is the percentage of
the potential number of job openings due to attrition
and those due to increase in new economic activity.

10

References
i. Work B.C. British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook, pg 10. Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
ii. A number of labour market studies in which the high cost of housing has been found to be a detriment to
recruitment and retention can be found in: Vancouver Coast & Mountain Tourism Region (excluding Sea-to-Sky
Corridor) Tourism Labour Market Study, Thompson Okanagan Tourism Labour Market Study and Vancouver
Island Tourism Labour Market Study conducted by Roslyn Kunin & Associates, Inc. www.go2hr.ca/research
iii. B.C. company cites labour shortages for move to Ontario. CBC News. February 3, 2008.
iv. National Association of Realtors. 2015 NAR Generational Survey, Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/03/nar-generational-survey-millennials-lead-all-buyers-most-likely-touse-real-estate-agent
v. Yconic/Uthink. Millennial Finances & Plans for the Future, Accessed May 11, 2015.
we.are.yconic.com/Youth%20Insights/Infographic-Millennial-Finances-and-Plans-for-the-Future.aspx#.VVDgZ_lVhBc
vi. Nielsen. Millennials prefer cities to suburbs, subways to driveways, Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/millennials-prefer-cities-to-suburbs-subways-to-driveways.html

Pew Research. How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago, Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/03/19/how-millennials-compare-with-their-grandparents/

vii. Matt Kieltyka, Metro Votes: Young Vancouverites fleeing to more affordable pastures. Metro, January 14, 2015.
viii. Data derived from Statistics Canadas Labour Force Survey, CANSIM table 282-0070
ix. Work B.C. British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook.
x. Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union
xi. Vancity, Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and Beyond, March 2015.
xii. Richard Littlemore, Vancouvers high-tech makeover. Globe and Mail, March 26, 2015.
xiii. Conference Board of Canada. Building from the Ground Up: Enhancing Affordable Housing in Canada, March 2010, 1.
xiv. Mike Berry. Housing affordability and the economy: A review of labour market impacts and policy issues, iv.
xv. Statistics Canada - 2011 National Household Survey. Catalogue Number 99-012-X2011061.
xvi. Statistics Canada. Table 282-0133 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by census metropolitan
area based on 2011 census boundaries and National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S), annual
(persons), and Statistics Canada. Table 282-0070 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), wages of employees by
type of work, National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S), sex and age group, annual (current
dollars unless otherwise noted).

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