I72

PART

Introduction to Operations Management

Problems*
.^
The lollowing Sil_"1 the number
of pints of type A
r- - *.4.1
-.,r-. rr \\b6flln1y1 Hospital
in the past 6

Week

Of

w".i.,

on the 2_vear moving average fbr.ecast

in
part (a). (Hinr: you will have
only 3 years Jf matched data.)
c) Use a weighted ?-year moving ,,".ug. ,r
ith u,eigfrts of .,1 and .6
to forecast next year.s mileage. (The"wei-eht
otl.E i. fi, the most
recent year.) What MAD results
ftom Lrsing this approach to
forecasring? (Hinr: yot r,,,ill have
3 y;,;;;matched data.)
d) Compute the tbrecast fo1
"rly
flar 6 usingexponenrial srxoothing, an
initial forecast lor year 1 of 3,000 ,rit"r,'un,Lo
_,._

360
389

September 7
September 1zl
September 21
September 28

410

38i
368
374

October 5

Forecast the mileage fbr next year

using a 2_year moving aver-

ltgc.

b) Find the MAD basecl

Pints Used

August 31

a)

ill Forecast the demand tbr the

week of October 12 using a 3_week
inor,ing average.
b) Use a, 3-week weightecl movins
averuge, r,r,ith weights of .1, .3,
and .6, using .6 fbr the l:rtost recent
week. Forecast demancl fbr
lhe r,r eck ol October
Compute the forecast for the week
of October 12 using exponentiaJ
smoothing with a forecast forAugr-rst
3I of 360 onJo'= 2,,.,

:'

='

4.6

follou,s:

Month

jl.

l0

13

12

l3

September

Starting in year,l and going to year

12, ibrecast demancl using a
3-year moving averase.with w.igfrt,
of . f , .:, anA .0, u.irg .O fo,
the most recent year plot this f,xecast
on tlte same grapn.
As 1,.u corrpare fbrecasrs with the
originai iuiu, *rri"f, seems ro
,sive the better results? -l{:

4.9

4.4

er.ponential smoothing
iorecast the number of incoming
checks each month. The number
,i ;hecks received
in June was 40 million. while the
fbrecast was ,X2
:.rllron. A smoothing constant of .2
is used.

v) A trend pr.ojecrion.
c) With the dara given. which method would
nex

-:

..

ear

Mileage
3.000
21.000

3,400
3.800
3.700

:l

q ith PON{ for Windorvs

allow you to fbrecast

.'

Week

Actual No. of patients

65
62
70
48

2
J

4
5

63
52

.r,:

t Murch's :ale:

4.2 The actllal derland ibr. the patients at (Jmaha

Emer_
gency Medical Clinic tbr the
first six we&s of this year fbllows:

4.5 The Carbonclale Hospital is considering

the purchase
. , : .:t :ll;nce. The clecision
will rest partly on ihe anticipated
- :-_: : :riien next year. The miles
dr.ive.n during the past
:

follou,ing:

.1. .1. .2. .2, and.3,

with the heaviest weights applied tJ
the most recent months.
iv) Exponential smoothing uring un :
J o16 a September
lbrecast of lg.
"

.,r

. \\'hat is the forecast fbr July?

: ii the center receivecl 45 rnillion checks in July.
- --'J' what would be
ihe tbrecast for August?
-"'
i i ntisht this be an iLnappropriate
lbrecasting method fbr this
. _..,rj,rn.., :,:i

21

23

i) Naive method.
ii) A 3-month rnoving average.
iii) A.6-monrh weighted uu"*g. using.l,

Refertoproblem4.2.Developaforecastfbryears2through

f;r;;is

20
20

a) Plot the ntonthly sales data.

b) Forecast January sales using each ofthe

t7

l8

October
November
December

the original data.

using erponentiar srnoothing with

o ='.4 anJ u rorJ..* ro, year 1 of
6. Plot your new fbrecast
on a graph with the actual data
and the naive
I,rrecast. Based on a visu:Ll inrp"ctio,r,
*1".h
better? ,?+
A check_processrng center uses
1

13

16

July
August

11

Plot the above data on a graph. Do

you observe any trencl. cycles,
ot rundom r arilrl.ions..,

15
14

June

11

4 and going to year. r2. fbrecast

demancr using a
3-yeal movin-e average. piot your
forecast un ifr" .r_" graph as

21

Muy

b) starting in year

c)

20

February
March

April

Demand

at

Sales

January

4.2
Year

The monthly sales fbr Telco Batteries,

lnc.. were

Clinic administrator Mare Schniederjans

wants you to forecast
patient demand at the clinic fbr
ueek Z Uy,,.irSj,fris
yllu

data.
decide_to use a weighted mori,g
a'erage methocr
fincl this fore_
cast. Your methocl uses four. actual
clemand levels, w_ith rveights
of
0.333 on the present period, 0.25
n,r. p",.iJrgir.'br-, ,*u per.iocls
ago, and 0. 1 67 three periods ago.

a) Whal i: the r aluc ol')

b) [f insreltl the u.eights

c)

our. for.ectrrt?

were 20. 1-5, 15, and 10, r.espectrr.elr..

how

woulJ rhe lbrecust uhurrge,.,Erplrrin

wh1.
What if the weights u,ere 0.40. b.:0,
O.:0.
N(ru \ hct is thc Ii,r.er.u.l ltrr riccL -..,

ancl 0.

I0. respectivelv?

as