Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rating matrix
Rating
Buy
Target
| 32
Target Period
12-15 months
Potential Upside
19%
| 27
WHATS CHANGED
Key Financials
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
4453.5
5107.6
5649.3
6347.5
716.7
769.3
835.5
987.9
16.1
15.1
14.8
15.6
339.6
398.6
322.5
431.3
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
12.5
12.8
10.6
13.9
2.4
2.6
2.6
1.9
Target PE (x)
2.5
2.4
2.9
2.2
EV to EBITDA (x)
4.2
4.1
4.7
4.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
RoNW (%)
11.6
10.4
9.7
11.6
RoCE (%)
9.8
9.1
8.6
9.3
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Adjusted PAT
Valuation summary
Adjusted EPS (|)
PE (x)
Stock data
| 840 crore
Mcap
Debt (FY13)
| 3754 crore
| 555 crore
EV
| 4039 crore
52 week H/L
| 75 / 17
Equity cap
| 31.1 crore
Face value
|1
MF Holding(%)
12.0
FII Holding(%)
22.9
Price movement
6,500
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
15
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Price (R.H.S)
Jul-13
Oct-13
Nifty (L.H.S)
Analysts name
Rashesh Shah
rashes.shah@icicisecurities.com
Darpan Thakkar
darpan.thakkar@icicisecurities.com
Q2FY14
1359.6
212.0
15.6
57.2
47.7
0.5
72.9
2.3
Q2FY14E
1253.4
186.4
14.9
51.3
43.4
8.7
80.3
2.6
Q2FY13
1186.1
182.8
15.4
50.5
36.1
6.4
72.4
2.7
Q1FY13
1076.4
177.6
16.5
48.3
35.4
4.2
46.8
1.7
QoQ (Chg %)
26.3
19.4
-91 bps
18.5
34.7
-87.8
55.7
35.6
YoY (Chg %)
14.6
16.0
18 bps
13.4
32.1
-92.0
0.7
-12.3
Q2FY14
Q2FY13
YoY (%)
Q1FY14
QoQ (%)
641
535
19.9
467
37.3
Monolithic Construction
263
242
8.8
187
40.9
Prefabs
303
231
31.2
205
47.9
75
62
21.0
76
-0.7
588
534
10.1
546
7.7
Domestic business
235
244
-3.6
187
25.6
Overseaes
353
290
21.6
359
-1.7
C. Textiles Segment
131
117
11.6
111
17.9
1360
1186
14.6
1124
21.0
Storage Tanks
| Crore
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
CAGR
(FY13-15E)
Monolithic consn
720.0
1338.3
1086.9
1002.4
838.0
700.1
-16.4
59.3
85.9
-18.8
-7.8
-16.4
-16.5
Prefabs*
564.5
647.1
722.0
975.0
1222.7
1565.1
-17.4
14.6
11.6
35.0
25.4
28.0
Storage tanks
161.4
198.5
223.0
271.0
324.5
389.4
14.5
23.0
12.3
21.5
19.7
20.0
544.6
677.9
822.0
1061.0
1097.9
1174.7
15.4
24.5
21.3
29.1
3.5
7.0
946.1
1176.4
1115.0
1298.0
1562.7
1890.9
0.2
24.3
-5.2
16.4
20.4
21.0
345.0
436.9
468.0
472.3
554.6
604.5
-7.0
26.6
7.1
0.9
17.4
9.0
3281.6
4475.1
4436.9
5079.7
5600.4
6324.7
Page 2
26.7
19.9
5.2
20.7
13.1
11.6
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
CAGR (FY13
15E)
Monolithic consn
-19.0
136.8
283.9
162.6
158.1
124.0
103.6
19.0
21.2
15.0
15.8
14.8
14.8
Prefabs
93.6
128.4
147.1
174.6
267.3
344.3
16.6
19.8
20.4
17.9
21.9
22.0
Storage tanks
16.1
19.1
22.7
27.4
34.6
40.9
10.0
9.6
10.2
10.1
10.7
10.5
CM - Consol*
218.5
270.4
291.9
311.7
297.0
372.2
14.7
14.6
15.1
13.2
11.2
12.1
Textiles
69.0
113.0
105.7
87.6
112.0
126.9
20.0
25.9
22.6
18.5
20.2
21.0
534.1
814.8
730.0
759.4
834.8
987.9
1.6
52.6
-10.4
4.0
9.9
18.3
16.2
18.2
16.1
15.1
14.8
15.6
Total
YoY Growth (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
40.4
22.2
9.3
20.4
14.1
Page 3
Valuations
At the CMP of | 27, the stock is trading at 2.6x FY14E EPS and 1.9x FY15E
EPS. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 4.7x FY14E EBITDA
and 4.3x FY15E EBITDA. With surprising revenue growth from monolithic
and strong traction in the prefab segment, we have revised our revenue
growth estimates upwards to 10.6% (vs. our previous estimate of 7.7%)
in FY14E. Going forward, prefab will continue to remain the main driver
for growth coupled with the custom mouldings overseas business, which
is expected to register higher growth due to garnering of benefits from
acquisitions made last year and custom mouldings domestic, demand for
which is expected to normalise next year.
The proposed spinning business (plan outlay of | 1,800 crore) would also
be unlikely to put any pressure on the profitability of company. However,
this upward revision in capex would continue to pressurise liquidity.
Given this, we remain conservative with a positive bias. Hence, we revise
our target price to | 32 (from the earlier target price of | 35), valuing on an
SOTP basis. The stock has corrected heavily earlier with the
announcement on its new spinning business as well as slowdown in
monolithic & custom moulding business. However, after getting more
clarity on its spinning business as well strong traction in the prefab and
overseas moulding business, we now upgrade our rating from HOLD to
BUY.
Exhibit 5: SOTP valuation
Target EV/EBITDA
EBITDA (FY15E)
Target EV
Building Material
Monolithic Construction
1.5
104
155
Prefabs (Standalone)
5.0
344
1722
Tanks
3.0
41
123
Total
2000
Custom Molding
4.5
372
1675
Textiles
3.5
127
444
Total
4119
Net Debt
| Crores
3119
| Crores
1000
No. of Shares
Crores
| per share
Target Price
31
32
Page 4
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total ope rating Income
Growth (%)
Raw material c ost
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
4,453.5
5,107.6
5,649.3
6,328.9
-0.7
14.7
10.6
12.0
(| Crore)
(Year-end March)
FY12
FY13
FY14E
306.6
323.8
325.6
FY15E
428.6
Add: Depreciation
167.8
205.4
226.7
241.9
-700.0
-513.3
-312.4
-125.7
66.4
-71.6
25.8
130.8
675.6
2397.9
2863.6
3127.3
3457.7
186.3
157.4
172.5
199.0
Employee c ost
512.0
590.2
730.8
862.3
-159.1
-55.7
265.7
Others cost
640.7
727.1
791.7
867.8
(Inc)/dec in Investments
235.2
12.0
0.0
0.0
3,736.8
4,338.4
4,822.3
5,386.8
-511.8
-446.0
-900.0
-850.0
EBITDA
716.7
769.3
827.0
942.1
Growth (%)
-12.1
7.3
7.5
13.9
Depreciation
167.8
205.4
226.7
241.9
Interest
135.8
146.2
186.4
204.2
Other Income
50.5
59.8
27.8
53.5
45.6
90.3
12.1
0.0
PBT
417.9
387.2
429.6
549.5
Others
-59.9
146.2
-87.0
0.0
Total Tax
116.0
66.9
105.2
120.9
120.9
252.3
587.4
463.4
Reported PAT
306.6
323.8
325.6
428.6
-265.7
-51.0
-91.0
265.8
Adjusted PAT
339.6
398.6
325.6
428.6
986.3
720.6
669.5
578.5
Growth (%)
-23.6
17.4
-18.3
31.6
Closing Cash
720.6
669.5
578.5
844.3
12.5
12.8
10.8
13.8
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
Adjusted EPS
12.5
12.8
10.8
13.8
Cash EPS
17.5
17.0
17.7
21.5
97.7
100.4
107.3
119.9
Others
49.1
186.3
-44.0
-23.2
-227.5
-247.7
-944.0
-873.2
0.0
32.3
0.0
0.0
180.9
99.4
700.0
500.0
0.0
-25.6
-25.6
-36.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Balance sheet
(Year-end March)
Key ratios
(| Crore)
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
27.1
59.4
59.4
59.4
2,621.1
3,065.6
3,278.5
3,670.5
BV
2,648.3
3,125.0
3,337.9
3,729.9
DPS
Total Debt
2,954.7
3,054.1
3,754.1
4,254.1
Liabilities
Equity Capital
0.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
26.6
21.5
18.6
27.1
16.1
15.1
14.6
14.9
7.6
7.8
5.8
6.8
Deferred Ta x Liability
-41.0
-45.9
-49.9
-53.1
295.8
486.9
446.9
426.9
EBITDA Ma rgin
5,857.7
6,620.2
7,489.1
8,358.0
31.8
30.5
31.0
31.0
3,696.8
4,144.9
4,924.9
5,824.9
Debtor days
136.0
128.0
127.0
125.0
63.5
66.9
62.0
62.0
Total Liabilities
Assets
Gross Block
PAT Margin
Inventory days
1,083.4
1,288.8
1,515.5
1,757.4
Creditor day s
Net Block
2,613.4
2,856.1
3,409.4
4,067.5
Capital WIP
280.0
280.0
400.0
350.0
RoE
11.6
10.4
9.8
11.5
2,893.4
3,136.1
3,809.4
4,417.5
RoCE
9.8
9.1
8.5
8.8
Goodwill
217.9
215.7
215.7
215.7
RoIC
8.1
8.1
6.8
7.5
Investme nts
142.3
130.3
130.3
130.3
Inventory
395.5
453.1
502.9
568.3
P/E
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.0
1,653.5
1,780.6
1,958.1
2,159.6
EV / EBITDA
4.2
4.1
4.8
4.4
Loans a nd Advances
965.4
1,294.0
1,379.1
1,237.9
EV / Net Sales
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
Cash
Total Current Assets
720.6
3,735.0
669.5
4,197.2
578.5
4,418.7
844.3
4,810.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
Creditors
771.4
930.9
955.9
1,071.2
Solvency Ratios
Provisions
359.4
128.4
129.1
144.6
Debt/EBITDA
4.1
4.0
4.5
4.5
1,130.8
1,059.2
1,085.0
1,215.8
Debt / Equity
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
2,604.1
3,138.0
3,333.7
3,594.4
Current Ratio
3.3
4.0
4.1
4.0
Application of F unds
5,857.7
6,620.2
7,489.1
8,357.9
Quick Ratio
2.7
3.3
3.5
3.3
Debtors
Page 5
Company Description
Sintex Industries operates in two business segments: plastics and
textiles. The textile segment is engaged in the manufacture of fabric and
yarn. The companys plastics segment is engaged in the manufacture of
water tanks, doors, windows, prefabricated structures, sections, BT
shelters and custom moulding. SIL has an installed capacity to produce
4.99 crore kg of thermoplastic powder moulding and 3.88 crore kg of
extruded thermo-plastic sections.
Exhibit 6: Recommendation History
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Price
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Target Price
Event
Q2FY13 Result Preview
Q2FY13 Result update
Q3FY13 Result update
Q4FY13 Result Update
Q1FY14 Result Update
Q21FY14 Result Preview
CMP
71
74
71
52
39
22
Target Price
71
71
80
67
35
35
Rating
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
Page 6
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclosures:
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loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the
risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to
change without notice.
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compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment
banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed Rashesh Shah CA Darpan Thakkar MBA, research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any
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Page 7