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PRESIDENTIAL CONSIDERATION RESULTS

METHODOLOGY
SURVEY INFORMATION
1008 autodial phone interviews
conducted among likely
Republican primary voters in the
early states of New Hampshire
(21%), Iowa (21%), and South
Carolina (59%).
Conducted May 19-20, 2015
Margin of error is +/- 3.1%

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND


CONSIDERATION

CANDIDATE AWARENESS
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would
strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is
unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7
to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a
candidate were considered Aware, while those who selected 9 were considered Not Aware.
1-7 Aware

9 Not Aware

JEB BUSH

94

MIKE HUCKABEE

93

CHRIS CHRISTIE

89

11

RAND PAUL

88

12

MARCO RUBIO

88

12

RICK SANTORUM

88

13

TED CRUZ

87

14

LINDSEY GRAHAM

87

14

RICK PERRY

86

14

BEN CARSON

80

21

SCOTT WALKER

79

22

BOBBY JINDAL

73

CARLY FIORINA
JOHN KASICH

27

67
61

33
39

CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you
would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainly never vote for that candidate.
Press 6 if it is unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use
any number from 1-7 to rate these candidates. If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.
1 Certainly Consider

MARCO RUBIO

2-3 Consider

15

SCOTT WALKER

TED CRUZ
JEB BUSH

RICK PERRY

RICK SANTORUM

CHRIS CHRISTIE

24

BOBBY JINDAL

25

CARLY FIORINA

23

JOHN KASICH

18
12

18

15
12
17

56

3.97
3.99

4.55

12

4.05

12

4.03

28
13

3.73

4.21

26

48
28

3.82

13

20
43

3.41

15

19

26

10

4.03

18

30

3.12

20
18

30

28

14

16

26

33

3.28

17
15

22

33

10

15

29

31

RAND PAUL

LINDSEY GRAHAM

22

28

11

10

Mean
Scores

9
8

33

33

15

10

33

29

13

7 Certainly Not Consider

25

31

19

MIKE HUCKABEE

5-6 Not Consider

41
21

BEN CARSON

4+9 Neutral

4.51

15

4.33

CANDIDATE PREFERENCE BY STATE


We compared the total consideration scores for the candidates in each state and listed the top 5.

New Hampshire

Iowa

WALKER

64

RUBIO

52

South Carolina

RUBIO

57

RUBIO

57

WALKER

47

WALKER

49

HUCKABEE

57

BUSH

45

CARSON

48

CARSON

54

PAUL

42

HUCKABEE

47

CARSON

42

CRUZ

CRUZ

48

42

DERIVED BALLOT
Derived ballot is based
on candidate rank
order among the
individual respondent
candidate ratings. If a
respondent had a clear
candidate preference
(they ranked that
candidate more
positively than all
others) that candidate
received one vote.
Respondents
preferences were split
proportionally if they
rated 2 or 3 candidates
most highly. If a voter
was split among more
than 3 candidates or
they did not rank any
candidates positively,
they were labeled
undecided.

SCOTT WALKER

10

BEN CARSON

MARCO RUBIO

JEB BUSH

MIKE HUCKABEE

RAND PAUL

TED CRUZ

LINDSEY GRAHAM

CHRIS CHRISTIE 4
RICK SANTORUM 2
RICK PERRY 2
CARLY FIORINA 2
JOHN KASICH
BOBBY JINDAL
UNDECIDED

30

POTENTIAL GROWTH
We looked at each candidates total consideration score (1-3) and
subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of
each candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.
Current Derived Ballot

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

10

MIKE HUCKABEE

BEN CARSON

RICK PERRY

TED CRUZ

JEB BUSH

RAND PAUL

CHRIS CHRISTIE

RICK SANTORUM

BOBBY JINDAL

CARLY FIORINA

LINDSEY GRAHAM

JOHN KASICH

Potential Growth

48
42
39
39
38
37
35
35
34
32
29
27
22
15

HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. BALLOT


CONVERSION RATE

12

TOP CHOICES

Walker

Total Derived Ballot %

Rubio

Paul

Graham

Carson

19%
19%
17%
15%
15%
14%
14%
11%
7%
6%
6%
5%
3%

Bush

Cruz
Bush

21%

Walker

10

Graham

Huckabee
Paul

Huckabee

Rubio

Carson

Cruz
Christie

Christie

Fiorina
Kasich

Santorum
2

Kasich

10

Perry

Jindal

LESS VIABLE

Santorum

Perry

Fiorina

20

30

Jindal
40

Total Consideration 1-3 %

50

60
*Conversion rate was calculated by
dividing the total derived ballot by the
total consideration (1-3) score.

IDEOLOGIES & ISSUE PREFERENCES

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES
Generally speaking
what type of
candidate do you
prefer nominating?

26

Mainstream

25

Social Conservative

17

Tea Party

16

Could Support Any

Unsure

Libertarian

Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected


president, should reach out to Democrats and work to find
reasonable compromises to get things done, or should
they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not
compromise, even if things dont get done in the short-run?

Stand by
principles

45

Get Things
Done

55

ISSUE PREFERENCES
How would you describe your views in the
area of (social/fiscal) issues?

28% of Republican primary voters are


both very socially and very fiscally
conservative.
61% are both socially conservative and
fiscally conservative.
17% are socially moderate or liberal and
fiscally conservative.

45
37
33
29
23

9
FISCAL

SOCIAL

17

Very
Conservative

3
Somewhat
Conservative

Moderate

Somewhat
Liberal

2
Very
Liberal

PERCEPTION OF IRAQ INVASION


Looking back now, and regardless of what you
thought at the time, do you think it was the right
decision for the United States to invade Iraq in 2003?

59-8-33
33
26
19
14
8

Definitely

Probably

Probably Not

Definitely Not

Unsure

RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION
Which of the following best describe your religious affiliation?

29

31

19
13
7
2
Evangelical
Protestant

Mainline
Protestant

Roman
Catholic

NonChristian

Agnostic/
Atheist/
Non-Religious

Unsure/
Prefer Not
to Say

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