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THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY


437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Compared to 402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans

Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

About the Poll


The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 437 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will
attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a
maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the
same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSGOERS
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-

Yes
No
Not sure

Continue
Terminate

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the
Democratic or the Republican caucus?
39
61
-

Definitely attend Democratic caucus


Probably attend Democratic caucus
Definitely attend Republican caucus
Probably attend Republican caucus
Probably not attend a caucus
Dont know which caucus will attend
Not sure

Continue

Terminate

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
3
68
9
18
1

Attended Republican caucus in the past


Attended Democratic caucus in the past
Attended both
First caucus
Not sure

Now, Im going to mention some prominent Democrats, including people talked about as possible candidates for
the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly
favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say
so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Fav

A.
B.

C.

D.

E.

F.

G.

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Barack Obama, president of the United


States

May-15
Jan-15

89

49

40

86

13

49

37

Joe Biden, vice president of the United


States

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

76

20

22

54

14

78
60

20
34

25
15

53
45

14
19

6
15

2
6

Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

86*

12*

39

46

84
76

15
19

46
43

38
33

7
8

8
11

1
5

Martin OMalley, former governor of


Maryland

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

20*

17

72

13
13

9
9

2
2

11
11

6
7

3
2

78
78

Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from


Vermont

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

47

12

23

24

41

37
29

12
13

17
10

20
19

8
8

4
5

51
58

Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from


Massachusetts

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

62

31

31

28

58
44

11
11

30
23

28
21

6
6

5
5

31
45

Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from


Virginia

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

22

19

69

3
1

18
15

8
8

3
4

68
72

21
16

9*
11
12

*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)

First

Second

Combined

8
57
2
16
2

31
15
3
13
5

39
72
5*
29
7

12

Not sure
8
13
No first choice
N/A
14
*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

First

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Second

Combined

31

39

9
9

26
19

35
28

57

15

72

56
53

15
15

71
68

5*

1
-

3
1

4
1

16

13

29

5
3

6
4

11
7

3
1

6
2

9
3

12

4
3

3
N/A

13

6
12

8
5

N/A

14

N/A
N/A

10
15

*Combined does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice in horserace.] Im going to mention the
Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb

Ever

Never

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice in
Q.6a/b

37
16
34
23
32

15
9
13
18
13

10
3
48
30
47

39
72
6
29
7

Rotate next two questions.


Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
Oct-14

Elizabeth
Warren

Neither
(VOL)

Not
sure

48

37

12

52

26

18

Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15

58

Bernie
Sanders

26

Neither
(VOL)

Not
sure

13

Im going to mention things about Hillary Clinton that have been in the news recently. For each, please tell me
if this is something that bothers you or notjust answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
Im going to mention those news items again. This time, please tell me if you think this will or will not hurt
Hillary Clinton in the general election if she is the nominee. Just answer yes or no. (Mark all yeses. Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)

A.

B.
C.

She kept a private email server and deleted emails she


did not consider related to her service as secretary of
state
How she handled the attacks in Benghazi and the
aftermath
The Clinton Foundation, founded by Bill Clinton,
accepted contributions from foreign governments when
she was secretary of state
None of these/not sure

Not
Sure

Will hurt in
general
election

Bothers

Does not
bother

20

78

41

20

73

39

27

70

37
34

[Ask all.]
When you think about the controversies surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton, do you tend to think they just get
a bad rap, or do you think they have shown a pattern of unethical behavior? (Rotate answer options.)
71
14
14

Bad rap
Have shown a pattern of unethical behavior
Not sure