EKOS regional data tables - Feb. 11, 2010 | Opinion Poll | Canada

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

0779 – Political Landscape – Data Tables, Weighted
Date: February 11, 2010
Target Population: General Population
Sample: n=3,006 (MOE +/- 1.79 19 times out of 20)
Field Dates: February 3 – 9, 2010
Method: IVR

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

PAGE 1

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Decided vote intention (decided Voters, includes leaning) 1
Total

CPC

Vote Intention (includes leaning)
NDP
GP
BQ
Oth

LPC

Undec

Not eligible

FEDVT
Weighted Total:
Total:

2614
2632

Conservative Party

31.0%

Liberal Party

29.0%

NDP

15.5%

Green Party

11.3%

Bloc Québécois

10.3%

Other

2.8%
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

1

1.91

811
836
100%
++++
0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---(999)
3.39

759
771
0.0%
---100%
++++
0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---3.53

406
408
0.0%
---0.0%
---100%
++++
0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---4.85

297
279
0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---100%
++++
0.0%
---0.0%
--5.87

269
264
0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---100%
++++
0.0%
--6.03

73

0

74
0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
---0.0%
--0.0%
--100%
++++

0

0

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

*

*

11.39

Decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 13.1% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

PAGE 2

0

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Decided vote intention (decided Voters, includes leaning)
Total

BC

REGION
Sask/Man
Ont

Alb

Que

Atl

FEDVT
Weighted Total:
Total:

2614

340

2632

346

Conservative Party

31.0%

30.3%

Liberal Party

29.0%

NDP

15.5%

Green Party

11.3%

Bloc Québécois

10.3%

24.1%
-26.9%
++++
15.0%
++
0.0%
---3.7%

Other

2.8%
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

1.91

(999)
5.27

268
230

168
178

57.1%
++++
21.9%
-8.6%
--8.1%

45.5%
++++
24.4%

0.0%
---4.3%

0.0%
---2.1%

6.46

7.35

17.6%
10.3%

1002
1010
31.0%
36.2%
++++
16.7%
13.6%
+++
0.0%
---2.4%
3.08

645
653
16.0%
---23.1%
---8.3%
---8.1%
--41.7%
++++
2.7%
3.83

192
215
33.7%
34.1%
+
21.3%
++
9.1%
0.0%
---1.8%
6.68

PAGE 3

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Decided vote intention (decided Voters, includes leaning)
Gender
Total

Male

Feml

Age
<25

25-44

45-64

65+

Highest level of
schooling completed
Coll/CE
<= HS GEP
Uni

Language of
Place of birth
Interview
In
Outside
Canada Canada English French

FEDVT
Weighted Total:
Total:
Conservative Party
Liberal Party
NDP
Green Party
Bloc Québécois
Other
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

2614

1295

1320

286

922

935

471

722

856

1036

2180

435

2000

614

2632

1321

1311

197

825

1053

557

730

848

1054

2208

424

2005

627

31.0% 35.7% 26.4% 17.6% 27.7% 33.6% 40.4% 34.5% 31.8% 27.9% 30.6% 33.0% 35.7% 15.8%
++++
--------++ ++++
++
--++++
---29.0% 27.7% 30.3% 28.5% 28.0% 28.8% 31.9% 23.1% 25.9% 35.7% 27.5% 36.6% 31.3% 21.7%
----- ++++
---- ++++ ++++
---15.5% 13.2% 17.9% 17.1% 15.9% 15.2% 14.7% 14.2% 17.8% 14.6% 15.5% 15.6% 17.7% 8.6%
---- ++++
++
++++
---11.3% 10.4% 12.3% 20.0% 12.9% 10.1% 5.5% 11.7% 10.8% 11.6% 11.8%
9.0% 12.6% 7.3%
++++
+
---+
- ++++
---10.3%
9.6% 10.9% 13.7% 13.1%
9.1% 5.2% 13.1% 11.3% 7.5% 11.9% 2.2% 0.1% 43.5%
+ ++++
---+++
---- ++++
------- ++++
2.8% 3.5% 2.1%
3.2%
2.4%
3.3%
2.3%
3.4%
2.4%
2.7%
2.6%
3.7%
2.7%
3.2%
++
-999
999
999
999
999
1.91
2.70
2.71
6.98
3.41
3.02
4.15
3.63
3.37
3.02
2.09
4.76
2.19
3.91

PAGE 4

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Daily Tracking – Feb. 3-9

Decided vote intention (decided Voters, includes leaning)
Total

Feb 3-4

Feb 5

Feb 8

Feb 9

FEDVT
Weighted Total:
Total:

2614

868

640

656

468

2632

868

640

656

468

CPC

31.0%

32.1%

30.2%

31.2%

31.3%

LPC

29.0%

29.9%

30.8%

29.0%

27.3%

NDP

15.5%

15.8%

13.5%

15.9%

14.6%

GP

11.3%

10.1%

11.0%

11.0%

13.6%

BQ

10.3%

10.0%

9.9%

10.2%

10.9%

2.8%

2.0%

4.6%

2.7%

2.3%

1.91

3.33

3.87

3.83

4.53

Other
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

PAGE 5

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Talking again in terms of a federal election, which party would be your second choice? 2
Total

CPC

Vote Intention (includes leaning)
NDP
GP
BQ
Oth

LPC

Undec

Not eligible

SECONDV
Weighted Total:
Total:
Conservative Party

2931
2943
9.3%

Liberal Party

16.6%

NDP

18.5%

Green Party

13.3%

Bloc Québécois

2.8%

Other

2.2%

No second choice
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

2

37.4%
1.81

811
836
0.0%
---21.1%
++++
12.5%
---10.6%
--2.1%
2.1%
51.6%
++++
(999)
3.39

759

406

771

408

17.8%
++++
0.0%
---34.7%
++++
17.2%
++++
2.9%
1.3%

-

26.1%
---3.53

14.5%
++++
37.4%
++++
0.0%
---19.0%
++++
3.0%
3.3%
+
22.7%
---4.85

297

269

73

279

264

74

9.7%

9.8%

13.1%

26.1%
++++
25.7%
+++
0.0%
---6.4%
++++
2.1%

15.6%

10.9%

23.1%
++
20.0%
++++
0.0%
--1.5%

17.0%

30.0%
---

30.0%
---

5.87

6.03

22.6%
++
5.6%
0.0%
30.8%
11.39

Eligible voters only

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

PAGE 6

316
311

0
0

4.1%
---11.4%
--8.6%
---8.3%
--2.1%

0.0%

3.9%
++
61.6%
++++

0.0%

5.56

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
*

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Talking again in terms of a federal election, which party would be your second choice?
Total

BC

REGION
Sask/Man
Ont

Alb

Que

Atl

SECONDV
Weighted Total:
Total:
Conservative Party

2931
2943

384

Liberal Party

16.6%

NDP

18.5%

11.6%
+
21.2%
+++
15.9%

Green Party

13.3%

12.1%

Bloc Québécois

2.8%

Other

2.2%

0.0%
---1.4%

37.4%

37.8%

1.81

(999)
5.00

No second choice
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

9.3%

378

296
254
5.8%
-11.7%
-13.7%
-13.1%

197

1119

210

1123

724

8.4%

9.0%

9.1%

11.7%

-

18.7%
11.7%

0.0%
--2.0%

0.0%
-3.0%

53.7%
++++

46.5%
+++

6.15

720

6.76

221
248

18.3%
+
20.6%
++
13.9%

13.6%
-17.7%

12.7%
+
20.7%
+
21.4%

14.4%

10.3%

0.0%
---2.4%

11.3%
++++
2.3%

0.0%
--1.2%

35.8%

31.6%
----

33.7%

2.92

3.64

6.22

PAGE 7

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

Talking again in terms of a federal election, which party would be your second choice?
Gender
Total

Male

Feml

Age
<25

25-44

45-64

1047

1043

65+

Highest level of
schooling completed
Coll/CE
<= HS GEP
Uni

Language of
Place of birth
Interview
In
Outside
Canada Canada English French

SECONDV
Weighted Total:
Total:

2931

1420

1511

324

516

830

967

1133

2441

490

2240

690

2471

472

2246

697

2943

1446

1497

220

933

1179

611

837

961

1145

9.3%

9.1%

9.4%

8.5%

9.2%

9.8%

8.9%

9.5%

10.4%

8.1%

Liberal Party

16.6%

16.5%

16.6%

16.7%

17.6%

16.0%

NDP

18.5%

Green Party

13.3%

Conservative Party

Bloc Québécois

2.8%

Other

2.2%

No second choice
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

37.4%
1.81

15.8% 12.7%
---17.7% 19.3% 18.7% 18.7% 19.6% 16.1% 15.9%
-14.7% 12.0% 12.2% 14.4% 14.7% 8.9% 13.3%
++
-+
---3.0%
2.5% 5.1%
3.5%
2.1% 1.1%
3.4%
++
+
--2.3%
2.1%
2.3%
2.2%
1.5% 3.2% 3.3%
++
+++
36.6% 38.1% 36.4% 34.5% 36.3% 46.0% 42.0%
-++++
+++
999
999
2.58
2.53
6.61
3.21
2.85
3.96
3.39

8.6% 12.4%
9.4%
9.0%
--+++
15.9% 20.0% 15.7% 21.1% 17.7% 12.9%
++++
--+++
+++
--16.9% 21.9% 18.4% 19.2% 18.5% 18.5%
++++
14.1% 12.6% 13.8% 10.6% 13.1% 14.0%
+
2.0%
3.0% 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 11.2%
++++
------- ++++
1.9%
1.5%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
2.5%
38.7% 32.9% 38.0% 34.5% 39.1% 31.8%
---++++
---999
999
3.16
2.90
1.97
4.51
2.07
3.71

PAGE 8

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

If you could choose, when would you want the next federal election to be held? 3
Total

CPC

Vote Intention (includes leaning)
NDP
GP
BQ
Oth

LPC

Undec

Not eligible

NEXTVOTE
Weighted Total:
Total:

2931
2943

As soon as possible

13.3%

Sometime in the next four months

10.8%

Before the end of 2010

24.2%

Not until the 4 year term ends in
the fall of 2012
No response

42.5%

Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

3

9.1%
1.81

811
836
4.4%
---5.5%
---14.0%
---71.9%
++++
4.2%
---999
3.39

759
771
15.2%
+
14.6%
++++
35.1%
++++
30.0%
---5.2%
---3.53

406
408
19.7%
++++
13.6%
+
26.1%
30.2%
---10.4%
4.85

297
279

269
264

73
74

21.6%
++++
9.3%

21.0%
++++
12.1%

17.7%

31.4%
+++
30.7%
---7.0%

27.8%

12.5%
-41.2%

5.87

29.5%
---9.7%
6.03

15.4%

13.2%
11.39

Eligible voters only

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

PAGE 9

316
311

0
0

8.3%
--11.2%

0.0%

14.8%
---35.4%
--30.3%
++++

0.0%

5.56

0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
*

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

If you could choose, when would you want the next federal election to be held?
Total

BC

REGION
Sask/Man
Ont

Alb

Que

Atl

NEXTVOTE
Weighted Total:
Total:

2931
2943

378
384

As soon as possible

13.3%

Sometime in the next four months

10.8%

Before the end of 2010

24.2%

16.1%
+
8.3%
25.0%

Not until the 4 year term ends in
the fall of 2012
No response

42.5%

43.2%

9.1%

7.4%

1.81

999
5.00

Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

296
254
9.8%

6.0%
--18.3%
-58.6%
++++
7.3%
6.15

197
210

1119

720

221

1123

724

7.7%
-10.1%

13.4%

13.7%

11.8%

11.9%

16.9%
+
13.8%

15.1%
--58.5%
++++
8.7%

26.8%
+++
40.1%
-7.9%
-

23.6%

27.6%

37.8%
--12.9%
++++

33.0%
--8.7%

6.76

2.92

3.64

248

6.22

PAGE 10

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

If you could choose, when would you want the next federal election to be held?
Gender
Total

Male

Feml

Age
<25

25-44

45-64

65+

Highest level of
schooling completed
Coll/CE
<= HS GEP
Uni

Language of
Place of birth
Interview
In
Outside
Canada Canada English French

NEXTVOTE
Weighted Total:
Total:
As soon as possible
Sometime in the next four months
Before the end of 2010
Not until the 4 year term ends in
the fall of 2012
No response
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

2931

1420

1511

324

1047

1043

516

830

967

2943

1446

1497

220

933

1179

611

837

961

13.3% 16.9% 9.9% 26.3% 15.8% 9.3% 8.3% 15.9% 12.1%
++++
---- ++++
+++
------+++
10.8% 11.0% 10.7% 15.9% 10.1% 10.6%
9.6% 12.2% 8.5%
+++
--24.2% 23.6% 24.8% 24.7% 23.5% 25.2% 23.4% 19.5% 27.0%
---++
42.5% 42.5% 42.5% 21.8% 40.8% 47.6% 48.6% 41.0% 43.1%
---++++
+++
9.1% 6.0% 12.1% 11.2%
9.7% 7.4% 10.2% 11.4%
9.2%
---- ++++
-+++
999
999
999
1.81
2.58
2.53
6.61
3.21
2.85
3.96
3.39
3.16

1133

2441

490

2240

690

1145

2471

472

2246

697

12.5%

13.1%

14.6%

13.2%

13.8%

11.8% 10.0% 14.9% 10.5%
--+++
25.3% 24.7% 21.8% 24.6%

12.1%

43.1%

42.8%

7.4%
---

9.4%

2.90

95
1.97

PAGE 11

22.9%

40.9% 43.9% 38.0%
+++
--7.9% 7.9% 13.3%
---- ++++
999
4.51
2.07
3.71

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction? 4
Total

CPC

Vote Intention (includes leaning)
NDP
GP
BQ
Oth

LPC

Undec

Not eligible

INTRO2
Weighted Total:

1539

408

402

209

166

132

42

155

Total:

1531

417

409

209

153

128

40

154

21

33.5%

30.2%

Right direction

39.9%

Wrong direction

49.0%

Skipped

11.1%
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

4

2.50

82.4%
++++
9.2%
---8.4%
-(999)
4.80

24.1%
---66.1%
++++
9.7%
4.85

27.2%
---65.0%
++++
7.7%
6.78

21.5%
---70.0%
++++
8.6%
7.92

15.4%
---71.5%
++++
13.1%
8.66

21.7%
-67.9%
++
10.4%
15.49

Half sample

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

PAGE 12

40.7%
-25.8%
++++
7.90

25

48.7%
21.1%
21.38

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
Total

BC

REGION
Sask/Man
Ont

Alb

Que

Atl

INTRO2
Weighted Total:

1539

191

162

109

590

363

Total:

1531

193

141

115

586

357

Right direction

39.9%

37.4%

Wrong direction

49.0%

51.7%

Skipped

11.1%

10.9%

2.50

999
7.05

Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

55.8%
++++
35.3%
---8.8%
8.25

60.0%
++++
30.5%
---9.5%
9.14

37.6%
51.0%
11.4%
4.05

28.9%
---57.3%
++++
13.8%
+
5.19

124
139
48.7%
++
45.1%
6.2%

-

8.31

PAGE 13

Project: POLL2010 - Weekly National Poll

2010-02-10

All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?
Gender
Total

Male

Age

Feml

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

Highest level of
schooling completed
Coll/CE
<= HS GEP
Uni

Language of
Place of birth
Interview
In
Outside
Canada Canada English French

INTRO2
Weighted Total:
Total:
Right direction
Wrong direction
Skipped
Chi2:
Std Error Around 50%:

EKOS Research Associates Inc.

1539

740

798

177

571

517

274

442

495

602

1287

252

1191

347

1531

746

785

118

505

582

326

443

486

602

1289

242

1189

342

39.9% 43.1% 37.0% 37.6% 35.8% 42.2% 45.8% 44.9% 41.5% 35.0% 38.8% 45.7% 43.3% 28.4%
++
--++
++
---++ ++++
---49.0% 49.0% 48.9% 48.9% 53.8% 47.5% 41.8% 43.4% 45.3% 56.1% 50.8% 39.5% 46.7% 57.0%
+++
----- ++++
+++
------ ++++
11.1% 7.9% 14.0% 13.5% 10.4% 10.3% 12.4% 11.8% 13.1% 8.9% 10.4% 14.7% 10.0% 14.7%
---- ++++
+
--++
-++
999
95
999
99
999
2.50
3.59
3.50
9.02
4.36
4.06
5.43
4.66
4.45
3.99
2.73
6.30
2.84
5.30

PAGE 14

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