1.
An experiment consists of selecting a ball from a bag and spinning a coin. The bag contains 5 red balls and 7 blue balls. A ball is selected at random from the bag, its colour is noted and then the ball is returned to the bag.
2
When a red ball is selected, a biased coin with probability 3
of landing heads is spun.
When a blue ball is selected a fair coin is spun.
(a) Complete the tree diagram below to show the possible outcomes and associated probabilities.
(2) 

Shivani selects a ball and spins the appropriate coin. 



(2) 
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Given that Tom selected a ball at random and obtained a head when he spun the appropriate coin,
(c) find the probability that Tom selected a red ball.
Shivani and Tom each repeat this experiment.
(3)
(d) Find the probability that the colour of the ball Shivani selects is the same as the colour of the ball Tom selects.
(3)
(Total 10 marks)
2. The Venn diagram below shows the number of students in a class who read any of 3 popular magazines A, B and C.
One of these students is selected at random.
(a) Show that the probability that the student reads more than one magazine is
1
6
.
(2) 



(2) 



(1) 
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Given that the student reads at least one of the magazines,
(d) find the probability that the student reads C.
(2)
(e) Determine whether or not reading magazine B and reading magazine C are statistically independent.
(3)
(Total 10 marks)
3. A jar contains 2 red, 1 blue and 1 green bead. Two beads are drawn at random from the jar without replacement.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate all the possible outcomes and associated probabilities. State your probabilities clearly.
(3) 



(2) 

(Total 5 marks) 
4. There are 180 students at a college following a general course in computing. Students on this course can choose to take up to three extra options.
112 take systems support,
70 take developing software,
81 take networking,
35 take developing software and systems support,
28 take networking and developing software,
40 take systems support and networking,
4 take all three extra options.
(a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.
(5)
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A student from the course is chosen at random.
Find the probability that this student takes
(b) 
none of the three extra options, 

(1) 

(c) 
networking only. 

(1) 

Students who want to become technicians take systems support and networking. Given that a randomly chosen student wants to become a technician, 

(d) 
find the probability that this student takes all three extra options. 

(2) 

(Total 9 marks) 

5. 
On a randomly chosen day the probability that Bill travels to school by car, by bicycle or on 

1 
1 
1 

foot is 
2 , 
6 
and 3 
respectively. The probability of being late when using these methods of 

1 
2 
1 

travel is 
5 , 
5 
and 10 
respectively. 

(a) 
Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. 

(3) 

(b) 
Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day 

(i) 
Bill travels by foot and is late, 

(ii) 
Bill is not late. 

(4) 

(c) 
Given that Bill is late, find the probability that he did not travel on foot. 

(4) 

(Total 11 marks) 
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(2) 

Shivani selects a ball and spins the appropriate coin. 

(b) 
Find the probability that she obtains a head. 

(2) 

Given that Tom selected a ball at random and obtained a head when he spun the appropriate coin, 

(c) 
find the probability that Tom selected a red ball. 

(3) 

Shivani and Tom each repeat this experiment. 

(d) 
Find the probability that the colour of the ball Shivani selects is the same as the colour of the ball Tom selects. 

(3) 

(Total 10 marks) 

6. 
(a) 
Given that P(A) = a and P(B) = b express P(A B) in terms of a and b when 

(i) 
A and B are mutually exclusive, 

(ii) 
A and B are independent. 

(2) 

Two events R and Q are such that 

P(R ∩ Q´) = 0.15, P(Q) = 0.35 and P(RQ) = 0.1 

Find the value of 

(b) 
P(R Q), 

(1) 
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(2) 



(2) 

(Total 7 marks) 
2
7. A group of office workers were questioned for a health magazine and 5
3
were found to take
regular exercise. When questioned about their eating habits 2
said they always eat breakfast
9
and, of those who always eat breakfast 25 a randomly selected member of the group
also took regular exercise. Find the probability that
(a) always eats breakfast and takes regular exercise,
(2)
(b) does not always eat breakfast and does not take regular exercise.
(4)
(c) Determine, giving your reason, whether or not always eating breakfast and taking regular exercise are statistically independent.
(2)
(Total 8 marks)
8. When Rohit plays a game, the number of points he receives is given by the discrete random variable X with the following probability distribution.
x 
0 
1 
2 
3 
P(X = x) 
0.4 
0.3 
0.2 
0.1 
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(a) Find E(X).
(2)
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(b) Find F(1.5).
(2) 



(4) 



(2) 

Rohit can win a prize if the total number of points he has scored after 5 games is at least 10. After 3 games he has a total of 6 points. You may assume that games are independent. 



(6) 

(Total 16 marks) 

9. 
The following shows the results of a wine tasting survey of 100 people. 
















(6) 

Find the probability that a randomly selected person from the survey likes 



(1) 
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(c) wine A but not wine B,
(2)
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(d) any wine in the survey except wine C,
(2) 



(2) 

Given that a person from the survey likes wine A, 



(3) 

(Total 16 marks) 
10. A survey of the reading habits of some students revealed that, on a regular basis, 25% read quality newspapers, 45% read tabloid newspapers and 40% do not read newspapers at all.
(a) Find the proportion of students who read both quality and tabloid newspapers.
(3)
(b) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.
(3)
A student is selected at random. Given that this student reads newspapers on a regular basis,
(c) find the probability that this student only reads quality newspapers.
(3)
(Total 9 marks)
11. In a factory, machines A, Band Care all producing metal rods of the same length. Machine A produces 35% of the rods, machine B produces 25% and the rest are produced by machine C. Of their production of rods, machines A, Band C produce 3%, 6% and 5% defective rods respectively.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.
(3)
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(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected rod is
(i) produced by machine A and is defective,
(ii)
is defective.
(5)
(c) Given that a randomly selected rod is defective, find the probability that it was produced by machine C.
12. The random variable X has probability function
P X
x
2
x
1
36 x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
(3)
(Total 11 marks)
(a) Construct a table giving the probability distribution of X.
Find
(b) P(2 < X ≤ 5),
(c) the exact value of E(X).
(d) Show that Var(X) = 1.97 to 3 significant figures.
(e) Find Var(2 – 3X).
(3)
(2)
(2)
(4)
(2)
(Total 13 marks)
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13. A group of 100 people produced the following information relating to three attributes. The attributes were wearing glasses, being left handed and having dark hair. Glasses were worn by 36 people, 28 were left handed and 36 had dark hair. There were 17 who wore glasses and were left handed, 19 who wore glasses and had dark hair and 15 who were left handed and had dark hair. Only 10 people wore glasses, were left handed and had dark hair.
(a) Represent these data on a Venn diagram.
(6) 

A person was selected at random from this group. 

Find the probability that this person 



(1) 



(1) 
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(d) had only two of the attributes,
(2) 



..................................................................................................................................... 

..................................................................................................................................... 

..................................................................................................................................... 

..................................................................................................................................... 

(3) 
(Total 13 marks)
14. A bag contains 9 blue balls and 3 red balls. A ball is selected at random from the bag and its colour is recorded. The ball is not replaced. A second ball is selected at random and its colour is recorded.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.
(3) 

Find the probability that 



(2) 



(2) 

(Total 7 marks) 
15. For the events A and B,
P (A B’) = 0.32,
P(A’ B ) = 0.11
and
P ( A B ) = 0.65
(a) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the complete sample space for the events A and B.
(3)
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(b) Write down the value of P(A) and the value of P(B).
(3) 



(2) 



(3) 

(Total 11 marks) 
16. In a school there are 148 students in Years 12 and 13 studying Science, Humanities or Arts subjects. Of these students, 89 wear glasses and the others do not. There are 30 Science students of whom 18 wear glasses. The corresponding figures for the Humanities students are 68 and 44 respectively. A student is chosen at random. Find the probability that this student
(a) is studying Arts subjects,
(4) 



(2) 

Amongst the Science students, 80% are righthanded. Corresponding percentages for Humanities and Arts students are 75% and 70% respectively. 

A student is again chosen at random. 



(3) 



(3) 
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(Total 12 marks)
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17.
A company assembles drills using components from two sources. Goodbuy supplies 85% of the components and Amart supplies the rest. It is known that 3% of the components supplied by Goodbuy are faulty and 6% of those supplied by Amart are faulty.
(a) Represent this information on a tree diagram.
(3) 

An assembled drill is selected at random. 



(3) 

(Total 6 marks) 
18. Articles made on a lathe are subject to three kinds of defect, A, B or C. A sample of 1000 articles was inspected and the following results were obtained.
31 had a type A defect
37 had a type B defect
42 had a type C defect
11 had both type A and type B defects
13 had both type B and type C defects
10 had both type A and type C defects 6 had all three types of defect.
(a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent these data.
(6) 

Find the probability that a randomly selected article from this sample had 



(1) 



(2) 

An article selected at random from this sample had only one defect. 



(2) 
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Two different articles were selected at random from this sample.
19.
(e) Find the probability that both had type B defects.
(2) 

(Total 13 marks) 

1 
1 
1 

The events A and B are such that P(A) = 
2 , P(B) = 
3 
and P(A B) = 
4 

.


(4) 

Hence, or otherwise, find 



(1) 


B ) 

(2) 

(Total 7 marks) 
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20.
A fair die has six faces numbered 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 and 3. The die is rolled twice and the number showing on the uppermost face is recorded each time.
Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers recorded is at least 5.
(Total 5 marks)
21. Three events A, B and C are defined in the sample space S. The events A and B are mutually exclusive and A and C are independent.
(a) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the relationships between the 3 events and the sample space.
(3) 

Given that P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A C) = 0.7, find 



(2) 



(2) 



(4) 

(Total 11 marks) 
22. The events A and B are such that P(A) =
2
5
, P(B) =
1 4
2
and P(A
B ) =
5 .
(a) Find
(i) P(A B ),
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(ii)
P(A B),
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(iii) 
P(A B), 
(iv) 
P(A B ). 
(7) 



(i) 
mutually exclusive, 

(2) 

(ii) 
independent. 

(2) 

(Total 11 marks) 
23. One of the objectives of a computer game is to collect keys. There are three stages to the game.
2 1
The probability of collecting a key at the first stage is 3 , at the second stage is 2 , and at the
third stage is
1
4 .
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the 3 stages of the game.
(4) 



(2) 



(5) 
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(d) Calculate the probability that keys are not collected on at least 2 successive stages in a game.
(5)
(Total 16 marks)
24. A fairground game involves trying to hit a moving target with a gunshot. A round consists of up to 3 shots. Ten points are scored if a player hits the target, but the round is over if the player misses. Linda has a constant probability of 0.6 of hitting the target and shots are independent of one another.
(a) Find the probability that Linda scores 30 points in a round.
(2) 

The random variable X is the number of points Linda scores in a round. 



(5) 



(5) 

A game consists of 2 rounds. 



(6) 

(Total 18 marks) 





(1) 
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(b) an event.
(1) 

1 
1 

Two events A and B are independent, such that P(A) = 3 
and P(B) = 
4 . 

Find 



(1) 


B), 

(2) 



(2) 

(Total 7 marks) 
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26.
A car dealer offers purchasers a three year warranty on a new car. He sells two models, the Zippy and the Nifty. For the first 50 cars sold of each model the number of claims under the warranty is shown in the table below.
Claim 
No 

c 

l 

a 

i 

m 

Zippy 
35 
15 

Nifty 
40 
10 
One of these purchasers is chosen at random. Let A be the event that no claim is made by the purchaser under the warranty and B the event that the car purchased is a Nifty.


(2) 



(2) 

Given that the purchaser chosen does not make a claim under the warranty, 



(2) 



Comment on this result. 

(3) 

(Total 9 marks) 

27. 
A keepfit enthusiast swims, runs or cycles each day with probabilities 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively. If he swims he then spends time in the sauna with probability 0.35. The probabilities that he spends time in the sauna after running or cycling are 0.2 and 0.45 respectively. 



(3) 
(b) Find the probability that on any particular day he uses the sauna.
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(3)
(c) Given that he uses the sauna one day, find the probability that he had been swimming.
(3)
(d) Given that he did not use the sauna one day, find the probability that he had been swimming.
(6)
(Total 15 marks)
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28.
(a)
P(R) and P(B)
2
^{n}^{d} set of probabilities
Note
B1
B1
2
1 ^{s}^{t} B1 for the probabilities on the first 2 branches. Accept ^{0}^{.}^{4}^{1}^{6}
_{a}_{n}_{d} 0.583
2 ^{n}^{d} B1 for probabilities on the second set of branches. Accept ^{0}^{.}^{6} ,
0.5 and
1.5
3
0.3
,
Allow exact decimal equivalents using clear recurring notation if required.
5 
2 
7 
1 
41 







12 
3 
12 
2 
, 
72 
or awrt 0.569 
M1 A1 
2 
Note
M1 for an expression for P(H) that follows through their sum of two products of
probabilities from their tree diagram
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(c)
P(RH) =
5
12
2
3
20
"
41
72
"
41
,
or awrt 0.488
Note
M1 A1ft A1
Formula seem
P
R
H
M1 for
P
with denominator their (b) substituted e.g.
5
P R
H
H
12
(their (b))
award M1.
Formula not seen
probability probability
_{M}_{1} _{f}_{o}_{r}
5
2
12
3
2
3
.
their b
but M0 if fraction repeated e.g.
1
^{s}^{t} A1ft
2
^{n}^{d} A1
for a fully correct expression or correct follow through
for
20
41
o.e.
3
(d)
5
12
2
7
12
2
25
144
49
144
74
144
or
37
72
or awrt 0.514
Note
M1 A1ft
A1
3
M1
1
^{s}^{t}
2
^{n}^{d}
for
5
12
2
or
7
12
2
from tree diagram
can follow through their equivalent values
A1 for both values correct or follow through from their original tree and +
A1 for a correct answer
Special Case
5
4
12
11
or
7
6
12
11
seen award M1A0A0s
[10]
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29.
(a)
(b)
2 3 
5 



their total 
their total 

Note 

2 3 

or 

M1 
for 
their total 

4 
2 
5 

3 
14 



total 
, 
30 

Note 

M1 
1
30
or
6 (* * given answer * *)
5
7
15
&
or 0.46
for adding at least 3 of “4, 2, 5, 3” and dividing by their
total to give a probability
Can be written as separate fractions substituted into the completely
correct Addition Rule
_{(}_{c}_{)}
P(AC) 0
Note
B1 for 0 or 0/30
(d)
P(C
reads at least one magazine)
6
3
9
20
20
Note
20
M1 for a denominator of 20 or 30
9
denominator of 20 20
only, 2/2
leading to an answer with
M1 A1cso 
2 
M1 A1 
2 
_{B}_{1} 
_{1} 
M1 A1 
2 
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(e)
30.
(a)
10 

1 
P( 
C 
) 

9 

3 
P( B C 
) 

3 

1 

P(B) = 
30 
3 
3 
, 
30 
10 
, 
30 
10 

or P(BC) = 9 
M1 

P( 
B 
) 

P( 
C 
) 

1 

3 

1 

P( B C 
) 
3 
1 

3 
10 
10 
or 
P(BC) = 
9 
3 
=P(B) 
M1 

So yes they are statistically independent 
A1cso 
3 

Note 





probabilities. 

Equality can be implied in line 2. 

A1 
for fully correct test carried out with a comment 



M1A1A1 
3 
[10]
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Note
M1
for shape and labels: 3 branches followed by 3,2,2
with some R, B and G seen
Allow 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 if 0 probabilities
are seen implying that 3, 2, 2 intended
Allow blank branches if the other probabilities imply
probability on blanks is zero
1 ^{s}^{t} A1
2 ^{n}^{d} A1
Ignore further sets of branches
for correct probabilities
set of branches.
for correct probabilities
set of branches.
and 
correct 
labels 
on 
and 
correct 
labels 
on 
1 ^{s}^{t}
2 ^{n}^{d}
(accept 0.33, 0.67 etc or better here)
Special Case
With Replacement (This oversimplifies so do not apply Mis
Read: max mark 2/5)
B1 for 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 with correct labels
and probabilities of
1
2
,
1
4
,
1
4
on each.
(b)
P(Blue bead and a green bead) =
(or any exact equivalent)
1
4
1
3
_{}
1
4
1
3
1
6
Note
M1
for identifying the 2 cases BG and GB and adding
2 products of probabilities.
M1 A1
2
These cases may be identified by their probabilities
e.g.
1
4
1
3
_{}
1
4
1
3
NB
1
6
(or exact equivalent) with no working scores 2/2
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Special Case 

M1 
for identifying 2, possibly correct cases and adding 2 
products of probabilities but A0 for wrong answer
1
4
1 _{}
4
1
4
1
4
will be sufficient for M1A0 here
but
1
4
1
...
2 would score M0
31.
(a)
[5]
3 closed curves and 4 in centre 
M1 

Evidence of subtraction 
M1 

31,36,24 
A1 

41,17,11 
A1 

Labels on loops, 16 and box 
B1 
5 
Note
2 ^{n}^{d} M1
There may be evidence of subtraction in “outer”
portions, so with 4 in the centre then 35, 40 28
(instead of 31,36,24) along with 33, 9, 3 can score
this mark but A0A0
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N.B. This is a common error and their “16” becomes
28 but still scores B0 in part (a)
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(b)
16
4
P(None of the 3 options) =
180
45
Note
B1ft
for
16
180
or any exact equivalent. Can ft their “16” from
their box. If there is no value for their “16” in the box
only allow this mark if they have shown some working.
17
(c) P(Networking only) = 180 Note B1ft
ft their “17”. Accept any exact equivalent
(d) P(All 3 options/technician) =
4
1
40 10
Note
If a probability greater than 1 is found in part
M1
(d) score M0A0
for clear sight of
P
S
D
N
P
and an attempt
at one of the probabilities, ft their values.
Allow P(all 3  S
N) =
4 1
or
36
9 to score M1 A0.
B1ft 
1 
B1ft 
1 
M1 A1 
2 
Allow a correct ft from their diagram to score M1A0
e.g. in 33,3,9 case in (a):
4 or
44
1
11 is M1A0 A ratio of
probabilities with a product of probabilities on top is
A1
M0, even with a correct formula.
for
4 1
40
or
10
or an exact equivalent
Allow
4
1
40
or
10
to score both marks if this follows
from their diagram, otherwise some explanation
(method) is required.
[9]
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32.
(a)
Correct tree
All labels
Probabilities on correct branches
Note
Exact decimal equivalents required throughout
if fractions not used e.g. 2(b)(i) 0.03& Correct
path through their tree given in their probabilities
award Ms
All branches required for first B1. Labels can be
words rather than symbols for second B1. Probabilities
from question enough for third B1 i.e. bracketed
probabilities not required. Probabilities and labels
swapped i.e. labels on branches and probabilities at
end can be awarded the marks if correct.
1 
1 
1 




(b) 
(i) 
3 
10 
30 
or equivalent 
Note
Correct answer only award both marks.
(ii)
1 
1 3 
9 







CNL + BNL + FNL = 
2 
6 5 
10 

4 

= 5 
or equivalent 
Note
B1 

B1 

B1 
3 
M1 A1 
2 
M1 

A1 
2 
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At least one correct path identified and attempt
at adding all three multiplied pairs award M1
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P
F
/
L
P F
L
(c) P
1
6
2
5
1
2
1
5
1 – ii
Attempt correct conditional
probability but see notes
numerator
denominator
Note
5
30
1
5
6
5
or equivalent
cao
Require probability on numerator and division
by probability for M1.Require numerator correct
for their tree for M1.
Correct formula seen and used, accept denominator
as attempt and award M1
No formula, denominator must be correct for their
tree or 1(ii) for M1
1/30 on numerator only is M0, P(L/F’) is M0.
33. 
(a) 
(i) 
P(A B) = a + b 
cao 
Note 

Accept a + b – 0 for B1 

(ii) 
P(A B) = a + b – ab 
or equivalent 
Special Case
If answers to (i) and (ii) are
(i) P(A)+P(B) and (ii) P(A)+P(B)
P(A)P(B)
award B0B1
7(a)(i) and (ii) answers must be clearly
labelled or in correct order for marks to
be awarded.
M1 

A1 

A1ft 

A1 
4 

[11] 

B1 

B1 
2 
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(b)
P (R Q) = 0.15 + 0.35
= 0.5
0.5
B1
1
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(c)
P(R Q) = P(RQ) × P(Q)
= 0.1× 0.35
= 0.035
0.035
M1
A1
2
(d)
P (R Q) = P(R)
+ P(Q) – P(R Q)
OR
0.5 = P(R) +0.35 – 0.035
P(R) = 0.185
P(R) = P(R Q′)
+
P(R Q)
= 0.15+their (c)
= 0.15 + 0.035
= 0.185
0.185
M1
A1
2
[7]
34.
(a)
E = take regular exercise
P(
E
B
)
P (
E
B
)
P (
B
)
B = always eat breakfast
M1
Note
9
2
25
3
0.24
or
6
25
or
18
75
A1
M1
for
9
25
2
3
or P(E  B) × P(B) and at least one correct value seen.
A1 for 0.24 or exact equiv.
NB
^{2}
5
2
3
alone or
^{2}
5
9
25
alone scores M0A0. Correct answer
scores full marks.
Common Errors
9
25
is M0A0
2
(b)
P(E
B)
2
2
6
–
3
5
25
or P(E′  B′)
or P(B′ ∩ E)
62
_{=}
75
13
25
12
75
P(E' B') 1– P(E B)
13
75
_{o}_{r} 0.173
or P(B ∩ E’)
32
75
M1
A1
M1 A1
4
Edexcel Internal Review
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Note
1 ^{s}^{t} M1
for use of the addition rule. Must have 3 terms and some
values, can ft their (a) Or a full method for P(E’B’) requires
1 – P(EB’) and equation for P(EB’): (a) +
x
3
2
5
Or a full method
for P(B′ ∩ E) or P(B ∩ E’) [ or other valid method]
2 ^{n}^{d} M1
for a method leading to answer e.g. 1 – ^{P}^{(}^{E} ^{} ^{B}^{)}
or P(B′) × P(E′B′)or P(B′) – P(B′ ∩ E) or P(E′) – P(B ∩ E′)
Venn Diagram 1 ^{s}^{t} M1 for diagram with attempt at
2
5
– P(
'
B E
) or
2
3
– P(
B E
).Can ft their (a)
1 ^{s}^{t} A1
2 ^{n}^{d} M1
for a correct first probability as listed or 32, 18 and 12 on
Venn Diagram
for attempting 75 – their (18 +32 + 12)
(c) P(E  B) = 0.36 ≠ 40 = P(E) or P(E ∩ B′) =
^{6}
2
2
25
5
3
P(
E
)
P(
B
)
So E and B are not statistically independent
M1
A1
2
Note 

M1 
for identifying suitable values to test for independence e.g. 

P(E) = 0.40 and P(EB) = 0.36 

Or P(E) × P(B) = 
and P(E ∩ B) = their (a) [but their (a) 

Values seen somewhere 

A1 
for correct values and a correct comment 
2
5
2
3
].
Diagrams You may see these or find these useful for identifying
probabilities.
Edexcel Internal Review
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53
(b) scores M1A0 1– P(E B) =
P(EUB) = 75
(b) P(B’) × P(E’) =
1
3
3
5
scores 0/4
22
75
scores M1A0
[8]
Edexcel Internal Review
46
35. (a) E(X) = 0 × 0.4 + 1 × 0.3 + 
+ 3 × 0.1, = 1 
M1, A1 

Note 

M1 
for at least 3 terms seen. Correct answer only scores M1A1. 

Dividing by k(≠ 1) is M0. 


M1, A1 

Note 

M1 
for F(1.5) = P(X ≤ 1).[Beware: 2 × 0.2 + 3 × 0.1 = 0.7 but 

scores M0A0] 


+ 3 ^{2} × 0.1, = 2 
M1, A1 

Var(X) = 2 – 1 ^{2} , = 1 (*) 
M1, A1cso 
Note
2
2
4
1 ^{s}^{t} M1 for at least 2 nonzero terms seen. E(X ^{2} ) = 2 alone is M0.
Condone calling E(X ^{2} ) =Var(X).
ALT
1 ^{s}^{t} A1 is for an answer of 2 or a fully correct expression.
2 ^{n}^{d} M1 for – μ ^{2} , condone 2 – 1, unless clearly 2 – μ Allow 2 – μ
2
with μ = 1 even if E(X) ≠ 1
2 ^{n}^{d} A1 for a fully correct solution with no incorrect working seen,
both Ms required. 

Σ ( x – μ ) ^{2} × P( X = x) 



1 
^{s}^{t} A1 if all correct 
2 ^{n}^{d} M1 for at least 2 nonzero terms of (x – μ) ^{2} × P(X = x) seen. 2 ^{n}^{d}
A1 for 0.4 + 0.2 + 0.4 = 1
(d) Var(5 – 3X)=(–3) ^{2} Var(X), = 9
M1, A1
2
Note 

M1 
for use of the correct formula. –3 ^{2} Var(X) is M0 unless the 
final answer is >0.
Edexcel Internal Review
47
(e)
Total 
Cases 
Probability 

(X = 3)∩(X = 1) 
0.1 × 0.3 = 0.03 


0.3 × 0.1 = 0.03 

(X = 2)∩(X = 2) 
0.2 × 0.2 = 0.04 
B1B1B1 

(X = 3)∩(X = 2) 
0.1 × 0.2 = 0.02 


0.2 × 0.1 = 0.02 
M1 


0.1 × 0.1 = 0.01 
A1 

Total probability = 0.03 + 0.03 + 0.04 +0.02 + 0.02 + 0.01 = 0.15 
A1 
6 
Note
Can follow through their Var(X) for M1
ALT 

1st B1 
for all cases listed for a total of 4 or 5 or 6 . e.g. (2,2) counted 
twice for a total of 4 is B0
2nd B1for all cases listed for 2 totals
3rd B1 for a complete list of all 6 cases
highlighted in a table
Using Cumulative probabilities
} These may be
}
1st B1 for one or more cumulative probabilities used e.g.2 then 2
or more or 3 then 1 or more
2nd B1for both cumulative probabilities used. 3 ^{r}^{d} B1 for a complete
M1
list 1, 3; 2, ≥2; 3, ≥1
for one correct pair of correct probabilities multiplied
1st A1 for all 6 correct probabilities listed (0.03, 0.03, 0.04, 0.02,
0.02, 0.01) needn’t be added.
2nd A1for 0.15 or exact equivalent only as the final answer.
[16]
Edexcel Internal Review
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36.
Diagram may be drawn with B (A C) or with the 0 for B (A C) simply left blank
‘3 + 1’ from diagram
Edexcel Internal Review
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Edexcel Internal Review
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M1 for use of P(Q) + P(T) – P(Q T) = P(Q T)
0.1 Correct answer only for A1
Alternative:
(25 + 45 + 40 =) 110% B1
110 – 100 = 10% M1A1
0.1 stated clearly as the final answer with no working gets 3/3
Edexcel Internal Review
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(b)
Q
0 .4
(c)
Venn 
M1 

0.15, 0.35 
A1ft 

0.4 and box 
B1 
3 

Two intersecting closed curves for M1, no box required. 

At least one label (Q or T) required for first A1. 

Follow through (0.25 – ‘their 0.1’) and (0.45 – ‘their 0.1’) for A1. 

0.4 and box required, correct answer only for B1 

Using %, whole numbers in Venn diagram without % sign, 

whole numbers in correct ratio all OK 





P(Q T 
Q T) = 
4 
M1A1ftA1 
3 
require fraction with denominator 0.6 or their equivalent from
Venn diagram for M1
Follow through their values in fraction for A1
Final A1 is correct answer only.
No working no marks.
[9]
Edexcel Internal Review
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38.
(a)
Correct tree shape
A, B and C and 0.35 and 0.25
D (x3) and 0.03, 0.06, 0.05
(May be implied by seeing P(A ∩ D) etc at the ends)
M1 for tree diagram, 3 branches and then two from each.
At least one probability attempted.
(b) (i) (ii)
21
P(A D) = 0.35 × 0.03 , = 0.0105 or
2000
P(C) = 0.4 (anywhere)
P(D) = (i) + 0.25 × 0.06 + (0.4 × 0.05)
91
= 0.0455 or 2000
M1 

A1 

A1 
3 
M1, A1 

B1 

M1 

A1 
5 
1 ^{s}^{t} M1 for 0.35 × 0.03. Allow for equivalent from their tree diagram,
B1 for P(C) = 0.4, can be in correct place on tree diagram or implied
by 0.4 × 0.05 in P(D).
2 ^{n}^{d} M1 for all 3 cases attempted and some correct probabilities seen,
including +. Can ft their tree.
Condone poor use of notation if correct calculations seen.
E.g. P(C  D) for P(C ∩ D).
Edexcel Internal Review
53
P(
C
D
)
0.4
0.05
,
(c) (ii)
P(C D) =
P(
D
)
= 0.43956
...
or
40
91
M1, A1ft
0.44 or awrt 0.440
A1
3
[Correct answers only score full marks in each part]
[11]
M1 
for attempting correct ratio of probabilities. 
There must be an attempt to substitute some values in a 

correct formula. 

If no correct formula and ration not correct ft score M0. 

Writing P(DC) and attempting to find this is M0. 

Writing P(DC) but calculating correct ratio – ignore notation and 

mark ratios. 

A1ft 
must have their 0.4 × 0.05 divided by their (ii). 
If ratio is incorrect ft (0/3) unless correct formula seen
and part of ratio is correct then M1.
39.

B1, B1, B1 
3 

P(X = 1) = …etc 

x 
2 3 4 5 

P(X = x) 
3 5 7 
11 

36 36 36 36 
36 
36 
0.0278, 0.0833, 0.139, 0.194, 0.25, 0.306
(Accept awrt 3 s.f)
^{s}^{t} B1
1 for x = 1, … 6 and at least one correct probability N.B.
3 

1 
and 
9 

1 
36 
12 
36 
4 
^{n}^{d} B1
2 for at least 3 correct probabilities
^{r}^{d} B1
3 for a fully correct probability distribution.
(b) P(3) + P(4) + P(5) =,
21
36
or
7
12
or awrt 0.583
M1
for attempt to add the correct three probabilities,
ft their probability distribution
M1, A1
2
Edexcel Internal Review
54
(c)
E(X) =
1
3
2 ,
36 36
....
161
or 4.472 or 4
17
36 36
M1
for a correct attempt at E(X). Minimum is as printed.
Exact answer only scores M1A1.
M1, A1
2
[Division by 6 at any point scores M0, no ISW. Nonexact
answers with no working score M0.]
(d)
E(X ^{2} ) =
1
36
2
2
or awrt 21.97
3
36
...
,
791
36
or full expression or
21
35
36
Var(X) =
791
36
161
36
2
, = 1.9714… *
1
^{s}^{t} M1
for a correct attempt at E(X ^{2} ).
Minimum as printed.
791
36
or awrt 21.97 scores M1A1.
M1, A1
M1, A1cso
2
^{n}^{d} M1
for their E(X ^{2} ) – (their E(X)) ^{2} .
2
^{n}^{d} A1
cso needs awrt 1.97 and
791
35
161
36
2
correct expression seen.
2555