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1.

An experiment consists of selecting a ball from a bag and spinning a coin. The bag contains 5 red balls and 7 blue balls. A ball is selected at random from the bag, its colour is noted and then the ball is returned to the bag.

2

When a red ball is selected, a biased coin with probability 3

of landing heads is spun.

When a blue ball is selected a fair coin is spun.

  • (a) Complete the tree diagram below to show the possible outcomes and associated probabilities.

1. An experiment consists of selecting a ball from a bag and spinning a coin. The
 

(2)

Shivani selects a ball and spins the appropriate coin.

  • (b) Find the probability that she obtains a head.

 

(2)

Given that Tom selected a ball at random and obtained a head when he spun the appropriate coin,

  • (c) find the probability that Tom selected a red ball.

Shivani and Tom each repeat this experiment.

(3)

  • (d) Find the probability that the colour of the ball Shivani selects is the same as the colour of the ball Tom selects.

(3)

(Total 10 marks)

  • 2. The Venn diagram below shows the number of students in a class who read any of 3 popular magazines A, B and C.

Given that Tom selected a ball at random and obtained a head when he spun the

One of these students is selected at random.

  • (a) Show that the probability that the student reads more than one magazine is

1

6

.

 

(2)

  • (b) Find the probability that the student reads A or B (or both).

 

(2)

  • (c) Write down the probability that the student reads both A and C.

 

(1)

Given that the student reads at least one of the magazines,

  • (d) find the probability that the student reads C.

(2)

  • (e) Determine whether or not reading magazine B and reading magazine C are statistically independent.

(3)

(Total 10 marks)

  • 3. A jar contains 2 red, 1 blue and 1 green bead. Two beads are drawn at random from the jar without replacement.

    • (a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate all the possible outcomes and associated probabilities. State your probabilities clearly.

 

(3)

  • (b) Find the probability that a blue bead and a green bead are drawn from the jar.

 

(2)

(Total 5 marks)

  • 4. There are 180 students at a college following a general course in computing. Students on this course can choose to take up to three extra options.

112 take systems support,

  • 70 take developing software,

  • 81 take networking,

  • 35 take developing software and systems support,

  • 28 take networking and developing software,

  • 40 take systems support and networking,

4 take all three extra options.

  • (a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.

(5)

A student from the course is chosen at random.

Find the probability that this student takes

 

(b)

none of the three extra options,

 
 

(1)

 

(c)

networking only.

 
 

(1)

 

Students who want to become technicians take systems support and networking. Given that a randomly chosen student wants to become a technician,

(d)

find the probability that this student takes all three extra options.

 
 

(2)

(Total 9 marks)

5.

On a randomly chosen day the probability that Bill travels to school by car, by bicycle or on

 

1

1

1

 

foot is

2 ,

6

and

3

respectively. The probability of being late when using these methods of

 

1

2

1

 

travel is

5 ,

5

and 10

respectively.

(a)

Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

 
 

(3)

 

(b)

Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day

 

(i)

Bill travels by foot and is late,

(ii)

 

Bill is not late.

 
 

(4)

 

(c)

Given that Bill is late, find the probability that he did not travel on foot.

 

(4)

(Total 11 marks)

 

(2)

 

Shivani selects a ball and spins the appropriate coin.

(b)

Find the probability that she obtains a head.

 

(2)

 

Given that Tom selected a ball at random and obtained a head when he spun the appropriate coin,

(c)

find the probability that Tom selected a red ball.

 
 

(3)

 

Shivani and Tom each repeat this experiment.

(d)

Find the probability that the colour of the ball Shivani selects is the same as the colour of the ball Tom selects.

 

(3)

(Total 10 marks)

6.

(a)

Given that P(A) = a and P(B) = b express P(A B) in terms of a and b when

 

(i)

A and B are mutually exclusive,

(ii)

A and B are independent.

 

(2)

 

Two events R and Q are such that

P(R Q´) = 0.15, P(Q) = 0.35 and P(R|Q) = 0.1

Find the value of

 

(b)

P(R Q),

 

(1)

  • (c) P(R Q),

 

(2)

  • (d) P(R).

 

(2)

(Total 7 marks)

2

  • 7. A group of office workers were questioned for a health magazine and 5

3

were found to take

regular exercise. When questioned about their eating habits 2

said they always eat breakfast

9

and, of those who always eat breakfast 25 a randomly selected member of the group

also took regular exercise. Find the probability that

  • (a) always eats breakfast and takes regular exercise,

(2)

  • (b) does not always eat breakfast and does not take regular exercise.

(4)

  • (c) Determine, giving your reason, whether or not always eating breakfast and taking regular exercise are statistically independent.

(2)

(Total 8 marks)

  • 8. When Rohit plays a game, the number of points he receives is given by the discrete random variable X with the following probability distribution.

x

0

1

2

3

P(X = x)

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

  • (a) Find E(X).

(2)

  • (b) Find F(1.5).

 

(2)

  • (c) Show that Var(X) = 1

(4)

  • (d) Find Var(5 – 3X).

(2)

Rohit can win a prize if the total number of points he has scored after 5 games is at least 10. After 3 games he has a total of 6 points. You may assume that games are independent.

  • (e) Find the probability that Rohit wins the prize.

(6)

(Total 16 marks)

9.

The following shows the results of a wine tasting survey of 100 people.

  • 96 like wine A,

  • 93 like wine B,

  • 96 like wine C,

  • 92 like A and B,

  • 91 like B and C,

  • 93 like A and C,

  • 90 like all three wines.

  • (a) Draw a Venn Diagram to represent these data.

(6)

Find the probability that a randomly selected person from the survey likes

  • (b) none of the three wines,

(1)

  • (c) wine A but not wine B,

(2)

  • (d) any wine in the survey except wine C,

 

(2)

  • (e) exactly two of the three kinds of wine.

 

(2)

Given that a person from the survey likes wine A,

  • (f) find the probability that the person likes wine C.

 

(3)

(Total 16 marks)

  • 10. A survey of the reading habits of some students revealed that, on a regular basis, 25% read quality newspapers, 45% read tabloid newspapers and 40% do not read newspapers at all.

    • (a) Find the proportion of students who read both quality and tabloid newspapers.

(3)

  • (b) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.

(3)

A student is selected at random. Given that this student reads newspapers on a regular basis,

  • (c) find the probability that this student only reads quality newspapers.

(3)

(Total 9 marks)

  • 11. In a factory, machines A, Band Care all producing metal rods of the same length. Machine A produces 35% of the rods, machine B produces 25% and the rest are produced by machine C. Of their production of rods, machines A, Band C produce 3%, 6% and 5% defective rods respectively.

    • (a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

(3)

  • (b) Find the probability that a randomly selected rod is

    • (i) produced by machine A and is defective,

(ii)

is defective.

(5)

  • (c) Given that a randomly selected rod is defective, find the probability that it was produced by machine C.

  • 12. The random variable X has probability function

P X

x

2

x

1

  • 36 x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

(3)

(Total 11 marks)

  • (a) Construct a table giving the probability distribution of X.

Find

  • (b) P(2 < X ≤ 5),

  • (c) the exact value of E(X).

  • (d) Show that Var(X) = 1.97 to 3 significant figures.

  • (e) Find Var(2 – 3X).

(3)

(2)

(2)

(4)

(2)

(Total 13 marks)

  • 13. A group of 100 people produced the following information relating to three attributes. The attributes were wearing glasses, being left handed and having dark hair. Glasses were worn by 36 people, 28 were left handed and 36 had dark hair. There were 17 who wore glasses and were left handed, 19 who wore glasses and had dark hair and 15 who were left handed and had dark hair. Only 10 people wore glasses, were left handed and had dark hair.

    • (a) Represent these data on a Venn diagram.

 

(6)

A person was selected at random from this group.

Find the probability that this person

  • (b) wore glasses but was not left handed and did not have dark hair,

 

(1)

  • (c) did not wear glasses, was not left handed and did not have dark hair,

 

(1)

  • (d) had only two of the attributes,

 

(2)

  • (e) wore glasses given that they were left handed and had dark hair.

.....................................................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................................

 

(3)

(Total 13 marks)

  • 14. A bag contains 9 blue balls and 3 red balls. A ball is selected at random from the bag and its colour is recorded. The ball is not replaced. A second ball is selected at random and its colour is recorded.

    • (a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information.

 

(3)

Find the probability that

  • (b) the second ball selected is red,

 

(2)

  • (c) both balls selected are red, given that the second ball selected is red.

 

(2)

(Total 7 marks)

  • 15. For the events A and B,

P (A B’) = 0.32,

P(A’ B ) = 0.11

and

P ( A B ) = 0.65

  • (a) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the complete sample space for the events A and B.

(3)

  • (b) Write down the value of P(A) and the value of P(B).

 

(3)

  • (c) Find P(A B').

 

(2)

  • (d) Determine whether or not A and B are independent.

 

(3)

(Total 11 marks)

  • 16. In a school there are 148 students in Years 12 and 13 studying Science, Humanities or Arts subjects. Of these students, 89 wear glasses and the others do not. There are 30 Science students of whom 18 wear glasses. The corresponding figures for the Humanities students are 68 and 44 respectively. A student is chosen at random. Find the probability that this student

    • (a) is studying Arts subjects,

 

(4)

  • (b) does not wear glasses, given that the student is studying Arts subjects.

 

(2)

Amongst the Science students, 80% are right-handed. Corresponding percentages for Humanities and Arts students are 75% and 70% respectively.

A student is again chosen at random.

  • (c) Find the probability that this student is right-handed.

 

(3)

  • (d) Given that this student is right-handed, find the probability that the student is studying Science subjects.

 

(3)

(Total 12 marks)

17.

A company assembles drills using components from two sources. Goodbuy supplies 85% of the components and Amart supplies the rest. It is known that 3% of the components supplied by Goodbuy are faulty and 6% of those supplied by Amart are faulty.

  • (a) Represent this information on a tree diagram.

 

(3)

An assembled drill is selected at random.

  • (b) Find the probability that it is not faulty.

 

(3)

(Total 6 marks)

  • 18. Articles made on a lathe are subject to three kinds of defect, A, B or C. A sample of 1000 articles was inspected and the following results were obtained.

    • 31 had a type A defect

    • 37 had a type B defect

    • 42 had a type C defect

    • 11 had both type A and type B defects

    • 13 had both type B and type C defects

    • 10 had both type A and type C defects 6 had all three types of defect.

  • (a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent these data.

 

(6)

Find the probability that a randomly selected article from this sample had

  • (b) no defects,

 

(1)

  • (c) no more than one of these defects.

 

(2)

An article selected at random from this sample had only one defect.

  • (d) Find the probability that it was a type B defect.

 

(2)

Two different articles were selected at random from this sample.

19.

  • (e) Find the probability that both had type B defects.

 

(2)

(Total 13 marks)

 

1

1

1

The events A and B are such that P(A) =

2 , P(B) =

3

and P(A B) =

4

.

  • (a) Using the space below, represent these probabilities in a Venn diagram.

 

(4)

Hence, or otherwise, find

 
  • (b) P(A B),

 

(1)

  • (c) P(A

B)

 

(2)

(Total 7 marks)

20.

A fair die has six faces numbered 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 and 3. The die is rolled twice and the number showing on the uppermost face is recorded each time.

Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers recorded is at least 5.

(Total 5 marks)

  • 21. Three events A, B and C are defined in the sample space S. The events A and B are mutually exclusive and A and C are independent.

    • (a) Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate the relationships between the 3 events and the sample space.

 

(3)

Given that P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A C) = 0.7, find

  • (b) P(AC),

 

(2)

  • (c) P(A B),

 

(2)

  • (d) P(C).

 

(4)

(Total 11 marks)

  • 22. The events A and B are such that P(A) =

2

5

, P(B) =

  • 1 4

2

and P(A

B ) =

5 .

  • (a) Find

    • (i) P(A B ),

(ii)

P(A B),

(iii)

P(A B),

(iv)

P(AB ).

 

(7)

  • (b) State, with a reason, whether or not A and B are

(i)

mutually exclusive,

 

(2)

(ii)

independent.

 

(2)

(Total 11 marks)

  • 23. One of the objectives of a computer game is to collect keys. There are three stages to the game.

    • 2 1

The probability of collecting a key at the first stage is 3 , at the second stage is 2 , and at the

third stage is

1

4 .

  • (a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the 3 stages of the game.

 

(4)

  • (b) Find the probability of collecting all 3 keys.

 

(2)

  • (c) Find the probability of collecting exactly one key in a game.

 

(5)

  • (d) Calculate the probability that keys are not collected on at least 2 successive stages in a game.

(5)

(Total 16 marks)

  • 24. A fairground game involves trying to hit a moving target with a gunshot. A round consists of up to 3 shots. Ten points are scored if a player hits the target, but the round is over if the player misses. Linda has a constant probability of 0.6 of hitting the target and shots are independent of one another.

    • (a) Find the probability that Linda scores 30 points in a round.

 

(2)

The random variable X is the number of points Linda scores in a round.

  • (b) Find the probability distribution of X.

 

(5)

  • (c) Find the mean and the standard deviation of X.

 

(5)

A game consists of 2 rounds.

  • (d) Find the probability that Linda scores more points in round 2 than in round 1.

 

(6)

(Total 18 marks)

  • 25. Explain what you understand by

  • (a) a sample space,

 

(1)

  • (b) an event.

 

(1)

 

1

1

Two events A and B are independent, such that P(A) = 3

and P(B) =

4 .

Find

  • (c) P(A B),

 

(1)

  • (d) P(A

B),

 

(2)

  • (e) P(A B).

 

(2)

(Total 7 marks)

26.

A car dealer offers purchasers a three year warranty on a new car. He sells two models, the Zippy and the Nifty. For the first 50 cars sold of each model the number of claims under the warranty is shown in the table below.

 

Claim

No

 

c

l

a

i

m

Zippy

35

15

Nifty

40

10

One of these purchasers is chosen at random. Let A be the event that no claim is made by the purchaser under the warranty and B the event that the car purchased is a Nifty.

 
  • (a) Find P(A B).

 

(2)

 
  • (b) Find P( A).

 

(2)

 

Given that the purchaser chosen does not make a claim under the warranty,

  • (c) find the probability that the car purchased is a Zippy.

 

(2)

 
  • (d) Show that making a claim is not independent of the make of the car purchased.

Comment on this result.

 

(3)

(Total 9 marks)

27.

A keep-fit enthusiast swims, runs or cycles each day with probabilities 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively. If he swims he then spends time in the sauna with probability 0.35. The probabilities that he spends time in the sauna after running or cycling are 0.2 and 0.45 respectively.

  • (a) Represent this information on a tree diagram.

 

(3)

  • (b) Find the probability that on any particular day he uses the sauna.

(3)

  • (c) Given that he uses the sauna one day, find the probability that he had been swimming.

(3)

  • (d) Given that he did not use the sauna one day, find the probability that he had been swimming.

(6)

(Total 15 marks)

28.

(a)

28. (a) P( R ) and P( B ) 2 set of probabilities Note B1 B1

P(R) and P(B)

2

nd set of probabilities

Note

B1

B1

2

  • 1 st B1 for the probabilities on the first 2 branches. Accept 0.416

and 0.583

  • 2 nd B1 for probabilities on the second set of branches. Accept 0.6 ,

0.5 and

1.5

3

0.3

,

Allow exact decimal equivalents using clear recurring notation if required.

 

5

2

7

1

41

 

  • (b) P(H) =

12

3

12

2

,

72

or awrt 0.569

M1 A1

2

Note

M1 for an expression for P(H) that follows through their sum of two products of

probabilities from their tree diagram

(c)

P(R|H) =

5

12

2

3

20

"

41

72

"

41

,

or awrt 0.488

Note

M1 A1ft A1

Formula seem

P

R

H

M1 for

P

H

with denominator their (b) substituted e.g.

5

P R

H

P

H

12

(their (b))

award M1.

Formula not seen

probability probability

M1 for

5

2

12

3

2

3

.

their b

but M0 if fraction repeated e.g.

1

st A1ft

2

nd A1

for a fully correct expression or correct follow through

for

20

41

o.e.

3

(d)

5

12

2

7

12

2

25

144

49

144

74

144

or

37

72

or awrt 0.514

Note

M1 A1ft

A1

3

M1

1

st

2

nd

for

5

12

2

or

7

12

2

from tree diagram

can follow through their equivalent values

A1 for both values correct or follow through from their original tree and +

A1 for a correct answer

Special Case

5

4

12

11

or

7

6

12

11

seen award M1A0A0s

[10]

29.

(a)

(b)

 

2

3

5

 

their total

 

their total

Note

 
 

2 3

or

M1

for

their total

4

2

5

3

14

 

 

total

 

,

30

Note

 

M1

1

30

or

  • 6 (* * given answer * *)

5

7

15

&

or 0.46

for adding at least 3 of “4, 2, 5, 3” and dividing by their

total to give a probability

Can be written as separate fractions substituted into the completely

correct Addition Rule

(c)

P(AC) 0

Note

B1 for 0 or 0/30

(d)

P(C

reads at least one magazine)

6

3

9

20

20

Note

20

M1 for a denominator of 20 or 30

9

denominator of 20 20

only, 2/2

leading to an answer with

M1 A1cso

2

M1 A1

2

B1

1

M1 A1

2

(e)

30.

(a)

 

10

1

P(

C

)

9

3

P(

B C

)

3

1

P(B) =

30

3

3

,

30

10

,

 

30

10

or P(B|C) = 9

 

M1

P(

B

)

P(

C

)

1

3

1

P(

B C

)

3

1

 

3

10

10

or

P(B|C) =

9

3

=P(B)

M1

So yes they are statistically independent

 

A1cso

3

Note

 
  • 1 st M1 for attempting all the required probabilities for a suitable test

 
  • 2 nd M1 for use of a correct test – must have attempted all the correct

probabilities.

 

Equality can be implied in line 2.

 

A1

for fully correct test carried out with a comment

 
10  1 P( C )  9  3 P( B  C ) 
 
 

M1A1A1

3

[10]

Note

M1

for shape and labels: 3 branches followed by 3,2,2

with some R, B and G seen

Allow 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 if 0 probabilities

are seen implying that 3, 2, 2 intended

Allow blank branches if the other probabilities imply

probability on blanks is zero

  • 1 st A1

  • 2 nd A1

Ignore further sets of branches

for correct probabilities

set of branches.

for correct probabilities

set of branches.

and

correct

labels

on

and

correct

labels

on

1 st

2 nd

(accept 0.33, 0.67 etc or better here)

Special Case

With Replacement (This oversimplifies so do not apply Mis

-Read: max mark 2/5)

B1 for 3 branches followed by 3, 3, 3 with correct labels

and probabilities of

1

2

,

1

4

,

1

4

on each.

(b)

P(Blue bead and a green bead) =

(or any exact equivalent)

1

4

1

3

1

4

1

3

1

6

Note

M1

for identifying the 2 cases BG and GB and adding

2 products of probabilities.

M1 A1

2

These cases may be identified by their probabilities

e.g.

1

4

1

3

1

4

1

3

NB

1

6

(or exact equivalent) with no working scores 2/2

Special Case

M1

for identifying 2, possibly correct cases and adding 2

products of probabilities but A0 for wrong answer

     
 
  

1

4

1

4

 

1

4

1    

4

 

will be sufficient for M1A0 here

but

1

4

1

...

  • 2 would score M0

31.

(a)

Special Case M1 for identifying 2, possibly correct cases and adding 2 products of probabilities but

[5]

3 closed curves and 4 in centre

M1

Evidence of subtraction

M1

31,36,24

A1

41,17,11

A1

Labels on loops, 16 and box

B1

5

Note

  • 2 nd M1

There may be evidence of subtraction in “outer”

portions, so with 4 in the centre then 35, 40 28

(instead of 31,36,24) along with 33, 9, 3 can score

this mark but A0A0

N.B. This is a common error and their “16” becomes

28 but still scores B0 in part (a)

(b)

16

4

P(None of the 3 options) =

180

45

Note

B1ft

for

16

180

or any exact equivalent. Can ft their “16” from

their box. If there is no value for their “16” in the box

only allow this mark if they have shown some working.

17

  • (c) P(Networking only) = 180 Note B1ft

ft their “17”. Accept any exact equivalent

  • (d) P(All 3 options/technician) =

4

1

  • 40 10

Note

If a probability greater than 1 is found in part

M1

(d) score M0A0

for clear sight of

P

S

D

N

P

S

N

and an attempt

at one of the probabilities, ft their values.

Allow P(all 3 | S

N) =

  • 4 1

or

36

  • 9 to score M1 A0.

B1ft

1

B1ft

1

M1 A1

2

Allow a correct ft from their diagram to score M1A0

e.g. in 33,3,9 case in (a):

  • 4 or

44

1

  • 11 is M1A0 A ratio of

probabilities with a product of probabilities on top is

A1

M0, even with a correct formula.

for

  • 4 1

40

or

10

or an exact equivalent

Allow

4

1

40

or

10

to score both marks if this follows

from their diagram, otherwise some explanation

(method) is required.

[9]

32.

(a)

32. (a) Correct tree All labels Probabilities on correct branches Note Exact decimal equivalents required throughout

Correct tree

All labels

Probabilities on correct branches

Note

Exact decimal equivalents required throughout

if fractions not used e.g. 2(b)(i) 0.03& Correct

path through their tree given in their probabilities

award Ms

All branches required for first B1. Labels can be

words rather than symbols for second B1. Probabilities

from question enough for third B1 i.e. bracketed

probabilities not required. Probabilities and labels

swapped i.e. labels on branches and probabilities at

end can be awarded the marks if correct.

 

1

1

1

 

(b)

(i)

3

10

30

or equivalent

Note

Correct answer only award both marks.

(ii)

 

1

  • 4 1

1

3

 

9

 

 

CNL + BNL + FNL =

2

  • 5 3

6

5

 

10

4

= 5

or equivalent

 

Note

B1

B1

B1

3

M1 A1

2

M1

A1

2

At least one correct path identified and attempt

at adding all three multiplied pairs award M1

P

F

/

L

P F

 

L

  • (c) P

L

1

6

2

5

1

2

1

5

1 – ii

Attempt correct conditional

probability but see notes

numerator

denominator

Note

5

30

1

5

6

5

or equivalent

cao

Require probability on numerator and division

by probability for M1.Require numerator correct

for their tree for M1.

Correct formula seen and used, accept denominator

as attempt and award M1

No formula, denominator must be correct for their

tree or 1-(ii) for M1

1/30 on numerator only is M0, P(L/F’) is M0.

33.

(a)

(i)

P(A B) = a + b

cao

 

Note

Accept a + b – 0 for B1

 

(ii)

P(A B) = a + b ab

or equivalent

Special Case

If answers to (i) and (ii) are

(i) P(A)+P(B) and (ii) P(A)+P(B)

-P(A)P(B)

award B0B1

7(a)(i) and (ii) answers must be clearly

labelled or in correct order for marks to

be awarded.

M1

A1

A1ft

A1

4

 

[11]

B1

B1

2

(b)

P (R Q) = 0.15 + 0.35

= 0.5

0.5

B1

1

(c)

P(R Q) = P(R|Q) × P(Q)

= 0.1× 0.35

= 0.035

0.035

M1

A1

2

(d)

P (R Q) = P(R)

+ P(Q) – P(R Q)

OR

0.5 = P(R) +0.35 – 0.035

P(R) = 0.185

P(R) = P(R Q′)

+

P(R Q)

= 0.15+their (c)

= 0.15 + 0.035

= 0.185

0.185

M1

A1

2

[7]

34.

(a)

E = take regular exercise

P(

E

B

)

P (

E

B

)

P (

B

)

B = always eat breakfast

M1

Note

9

2

25

3

0.24

or

6

25

or

18

75

A1

M1

for

9

25

2

3

or P(E | B) × P(B) and at least one correct value seen.

A1 for 0.24 or exact equiv.

NB

2

5

2

3

alone or

2

5

9

25

alone scores M0A0. Correct answer

scores full marks.

Common Errors

9

25

is M0A0

2

(b)

P(E

B)

2

2

6

3

5

25

or P(E′ | B′)

or P(B′ ∩ E)

62

=

75

13

25

12

75

P(E'B') 1– P(E B)

13

75

or 0.173

or P(B E’)

32

75

M1

A1

M1 A1

4

Note

  • 1 st M1

for use of the addition rule. Must have 3 terms and some

values, can ft their (a) Or a full method for P(E’|B’) requires

1 – P(E|B’) and equation for P(E|B’): (a) +

  • x

3

2

5

Or a full method

for P(B′ ∩ E) or P(B E’) [ or other valid method]

  • 2 nd M1

for a method leading to answer e.g. 1 – P(E B)

or P(B′) × P(E′|B′)or P(B′) – P(B′ ∩ E) or P(E′) – P(B E′)

Venn Diagram 1 st M1 for diagram with attempt at

2

5

– P(

'

B E

) or

2

3

– P(

B E

).Can ft their (a)

  • 1 st A1

  • 2 nd M1

for a correct first probability as listed or 32, 18 and 12 on

Venn Diagram

for attempting 75 – their (18 +32 + 12)

  • (c) P(E | B) = 0.36 ≠ 40 = P(E) or P(E B′) =

6

2

2

25

5

3

P(

E

)

P(

B

)

So E and B are not statistically independent

M1

A1

2

Note

M1

for identifying suitable values to test for independence e.g.

P(E) = 0.40 and P(E|B) = 0.36

Or P(E) × P(B) =

and P(E B) = their (a) [but their (a)

Values seen somewhere

A1

for correct values and a correct comment

2

5

2

3

].

Diagrams You may see these or find these useful for identifying

probabilities.

Common Errors 9 (a) 25 is M0A0
Common Errors
9
(a)
25
is M0A0

53

  • (b) scores M1A0 1– P(E B) =

P(EUB) = 75

  • (b) P(B’) × P(E’) =

1

3

3

5

scores 0/4

22

75

scores M1A0

[8]

35.

(a) E(X) = 0 × 0.4 + 1 × 0.3 +

+ 3 × 0.1, = 1

M1, A1

 

Note

M1

for at least 3 terms seen. Correct answer only scores M1A1.

 
 

Dividing by k(≠ 1) is M0.

  • (b) F(1.5) = [P(X ≤ 1.5) =] P(X ≤ 1), = 0.4 + 0.3 = 0.7

M1, A1

 

Note

M1

for F(1.5) = P(X ≤ 1).[Beware: 2 × 0.2 + 3 × 0.1 = 0.7 but

 
 

scores M0A0]

  • (c) E(X 2 ) = 0 2 × 0.4 + 1 2 × 0.3 +

+ 3 2 × 0.1, = 2

M1, A1

 

Var(X) = 2 – 1 2 , = 1 (*)

M1, A1cso

Note

2

2

4

  • 1 st M1 for at least 2 non-zero terms seen. E(X 2 ) = 2 alone is M0.

Condone calling E(X 2 ) =Var(X).

ALT

  • 1 st A1 is for an answer of 2 or a fully correct expression.

  • 2 nd M1 for – μ 2 , condone 2 – 1, unless clearly 2 – μ Allow 2 – μ

2

with μ = 1 even if E(X) ≠ 1

  • 2 nd A1 for a fully correct solution with no incorrect working seen,

 

both Ms required.

Σ ( x – μ ) 2 × P( X = x)

  • 1 st M1 for an attempt at a full list of (x μ) 2 values and probabilities.

1

st A1 if all correct

  • 2 nd M1 for at least 2 non-zero terms of (x μ) 2 × P(X = x) seen. 2 nd

A1 for 0.4 + 0.2 + 0.4 = 1

  • (d) Var(5 – 3X)=(–3) 2 Var(X), = 9

M1, A1

2

Note

M1

for use of the correct formula. –3 2 Var(X) is M0 unless the

final answer is >0.

(e)

Total

Cases

Probability

(X = 3)∩(X = 1)

0.1 × 0.3 = 0.03

  • 4 (X = 1)∩(X = 3)

0.3 × 0.1 = 0.03

 

(X = 2)∩(X = 2)

0.2 × 0.2 = 0.04

B1B1B1

(X = 3)∩(X = 2)

0.1 × 0.2 = 0.02

  • 5 (X = 2)∩(X = 3)

0.2 × 0.1 = 0.02

M1

  • 6 (X = 3)∩(X = 3)

0.1 × 0.1 = 0.01

A1

Total probability = 0.03 + 0.03 + 0.04 +0.02 + 0.02 + 0.01 = 0.15

A1

6

Note

Can follow through their Var(X) for M1

ALT

1st B1

for all cases listed for a total of 4 or 5 or 6 . e.g. (2,2) counted

twice for a total of 4 is B0

2nd B1for all cases listed for 2 totals

3rd B1 for a complete list of all 6 cases

highlighted in a table

Using Cumulative probabilities

} These may be

}

1st B1 for one or more cumulative probabilities used e.g.2 then 2

or more or 3 then 1 or more

2nd B1for both cumulative probabilities used. 3 rd B1 for a complete

M1

list 1, 3; 2, ≥2; 3, ≥1

for one correct pair of correct probabilities multiplied

1st A1 for all 6 correct probabilities listed (0.03, 0.03, 0.04, 0.02,

0.02, 0.01) needn’t be added.

2nd A1for 0.15 or exact equivalent only as the final answer.

[16]

36.

Diagram may be drawn with B (A C) or with the 0 for B (A C)simply left blank

(a) A B 1 2 0 9 0 3 1 C 2 1 3cc M1 90,
(a)
A
B
1
2
0
9 0
3
1
C
2
1
3cc
M1
90, 3, 2, 1
A1
1, (0), 2
M1A1
1 outside
A1
Box
B1
6
Accept decimals or probs. in Venn diagram
1
st M1
for 3 closed, labelled curves that overlap.
A1 for the 90, 3, 2 and 1
2
nd M1
for one of 1, 0 or 2 correct or a correct sum of 4 values
for A, B or C
2
nd A1
for all 7 values correct. Accept a blank instead of 0.
NB final mark is a B1 for the box not an A mark as on EPEN
(b)
P(none) = 0.01
B1ft
1
B1ft
Follow through their ‘1’from outside divided by 100
(c)
P(A but not B) = 0.04
M1 A1ft
2
M1
for correct expression eg P(A  B) – P(B) or
calculation e.g. 3 + 1 or 4 on top
A1
for a correct probability, follow through with their

‘3 + 1’ from diagram

(d) P(any wine but C) = 0.03 M1A1ft 2 M1 for correct expression or calculation e.g.
(d)
P(any wine but C) = 0.03
M1A1ft
2
M1
for correct expression or calculation e.g. 1 + 2 + 0
or 99 – 96 or 3 on top
A1
for a correct probability, follow through their ‘2 + 1 + 0’
from diagram
(e)
P(exactly two) = 0.06
M1A1ft
2
M1
for a correct expression or calculation e.g. 3 + 2 + 1 or 6 on top
P(
C
A
)
93
31
 ,
or
or
P(
A
)
96
32
(f)
P(C A) =
AWRT 0.969 M1A1ft,A1
3
M1
for a correct expression upto “,” and some correct
substitution, ft their values.
One of these probabilities must be correct or correct ft.
If P(C) on bottom M0
1
st A1ft
follow through their A  C and their A but the
ratio must be in (0, 1)
2
nd A1
for correct answer only.
Answer only scores 3/3, but check working
P(A  C)/P(C ) is M0
In parts (b) to (f) full marks can be scored for correct answers or correct ft
For M marks in (c) to (e) they must have a fraction
[16]
37.
(a)
P(Q  T) = 0.6
B1
P(Q) + P(T) – P(Q  T) = 0.6
M1
P(Q  T) = 0.1
A1
3
B1 for 0.6

M1 for use of P(Q) + P(T) – P(Q T) = P(Q T)

  • 0.1 Correct answer only for A1

Alternative:

(25 + 45 + 40 =) 110% B1

110 – 100 = 10% M1A1

  • 0.1 stated clearly as the final answer with no working gets 3/3

(b)

Q

0 .4

0 T 0 .1 .1 5 0 .3 5
0
T
0 .1
.1 5
0 .3 5

(c)

 

Venn

M1

0.15, 0.35

A1ft

0.4 and box

B1

3

Two intersecting closed curves for M1, no box required.

 

At least one label (Q or T) required for first A1.

 

Follow through (0.25 – ‘their 0.1’) and (0.45 – ‘their 0.1’) for A1.

 

0.4 and box required, correct answer only for B1

 

Using %, whole numbers in Venn diagram without % sign,

 

whole numbers in correct ratio all OK

 
 
  • 0.15 1

P(Q T

Q T) =

  • 0.60 or 0.25 or 25%

4

M1A1ftA1

3

require fraction with denominator 0.6 or their equivalent from

Venn diagram for M1

Follow through their values in fraction for A1

Final A1 is correct answer only.

No working no marks.

[9]

38.

(a)

D (0 .0 1 0 5 ) 0 .0 3 A 0 .3 5 D 0
D
(0 .0 1
0
5
)
0
.0 3
A
0 .3 5
D
0 .0 6
D
(0 .0 1
5
)
0 .2 5
B
D
D
0
.0 5
D
(0 .0 2 )
C
D

Correct tree shape

A, B and C and 0.35 and 0.25

D (x3) and 0.03, 0.06, 0.05

(May be implied by seeing P(A D) etc at the ends)

M1 for tree diagram, 3 branches and then two from each.

At least one probability attempted.

  • (b) (i) (ii)

21

P(A D) = 0.35 × 0.03 , = 0.0105 or

2000

P(C) = 0.4 (anywhere)

P(D) = (i) + 0.25 × 0.06 + (0.4 × 0.05)

91

= 0.0455 or 2000

M1

A1

A1

3

M1, A1

B1

M1

A1

5

  • 1 st M1 for 0.35 × 0.03. Allow for equivalent from their tree diagram,

B1 for P(C) = 0.4, can be in correct place on tree diagram or implied

by 0.4 × 0.05 in P(D).

  • 2 nd M1 for all 3 cases attempted and some correct probabilities seen,

including +. Can ft their tree.

Condone poor use of notation if correct calculations seen.

E.g. P(C | D) for P(C D).

P(

C

D

)

0.4

0.05

,

  • (c) (ii)

P(CD) =

P(

D

)

= 0.43956

...

or

40

91

M1, A1ft

0.44 or awrt 0.440

A1

3

[Correct answers only score full marks in each part]

[11]

M1

for attempting correct ratio of probabilities.

There must be an attempt to substitute some values in a

correct formula.

If no correct formula and ration not correct ft score M0.

Writing P(D|C) and attempting to find this is M0.

Writing P(D|C) but calculating correct ratio – ignore notation and

mark ratios.

A1ft

must have their 0.4 × 0.05 divided by their (ii).

If ratio is incorrect ft (0/3) unless correct formula seen

and part of ratio is correct then M1.

39.

  • (a) N.B. Part (a) doesn’t have to be in a table, could be a list

 

B1, B1, B1

3

 

P(X = 1) = …etc

x

  • 1 6

2

3

4

5

 

P(X = x)

  • 1 9

3

5

7

11

 

36

36

36

36

36

36

0.0278, 0.0833, 0.139, 0.194, 0.25, 0.306

(Accept awrt 3 s.f)

st B1

  • 1 for x = 1, … 6 and at least one correct probability N.B.

3

1

and

9

1

36

12

36

4

nd B1

  • 2 for at least 3 correct probabilities

rd B1

  • 3 for a fully correct probability distribution.

  • (b) P(3) + P(4) + P(5) =,

21

36

or

7

12

or awrt 0.583

M1

for attempt to add the correct three probabilities,

ft their probability distribution

M1, A1

2

(c)

E(X) =

1

3

  • 2 ,
    36 36

....

161

or 4.472 or 4

17

  • 36 36

M1

for a correct attempt at E(X). Minimum is as printed.

Exact answer only scores M1A1.

M1, A1

2

[Division by 6 at any point scores M0, no ISW. Non-exact

answers with no working score M0.]

(d)

E(X 2 ) =

1

36

2

2

or awrt 21.97

3

36

...

,

791

36

or full expression or

21

35

36

Var(X) =

791

36

161

  
 

36

2

, = 1.9714… *

1

st M1

for a correct attempt at E(X 2 ).

Minimum as printed.

791

36

or awrt 21.97 scores M1A1.

M1, A1

M1, A1cso

2

nd M1

for their E(X 2 ) (their E(X)) 2 .

2

nd A1

cso needs awrt 1.97 and

791

35

161

  
 

36

2

correct expression seen.

2555