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Escalation of fighting in east Ukraine

leaves ceasefire teetering on the brink


Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko says there is a colossal threat of the
resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces

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Gun battles in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian and government forces

Shaun Walker in Moscow-Thursday 4 June 2015

After several months of shaky ceasefire, east Ukraine has seen the first
bout of serious fighting since February, with clashes this week leaving up to
21 dead and prompting fears of a resumption of full-blown conflict in the
region.
Speaking in his annual address to parliament in Kiev on Thursday, Ukraines
president, Petro Poroshenko, said there was now a colossal threat of the
resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces. He
claimed there were 9,000 Russian troops currently in the rebel-controlled
areas of east Ukraine.
Underlining the seriousness of the situation the UN security council will hold
an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the escalation of fighting.

The Ukrainians said five of their soldiers had died in fighting around the
town of Marinka on Wednesday, while the Donetsk Republic said 16 fighters
and five civilians had been killed. Both sides reported dozens of wounded in
the battles.
As usual, both sides blamed the other for initiating the fighting. A report on
Russian television recounted how Ukrainian forces were using artillery
against separatist positions, forbidden by the Minsk accords, the ceasefire
terms agreed in Belarus in February. The Ukrainians said they only moved
the weapons back to the front
line after they were attacked with tanks by the rebels.
A special report from observers on the ground with the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) strongly suggested the
separatist fighters had gone on the offensive first.
Marinka was originally a settlement of around 9,000 people before the war
broke out a year ago. In recent months it has become the frontline along
the main road out of Donetsk to the west, with a number of rebel and
Ukrainian checkpoints in close proximity. The other major hotspot currently
is the town of Shirokyne, the last Ukraine-held settlement before the rebels
would be in sight of Mariupol, a major city, and a potential target if Russia
wanted to drive a land bridge through to newly annexed Crimea.
A ceasefire between government and separatists was agreed in Febuary
after negotiations between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and
Germany in Minsk.

Russia is under western sanctions for its role in Ukraine, but has
consistently denied being a party to the conflict.
All agreements should be fully implemented so that no one is able to derail
fragile progress by resuming military activity, the Russian foreign ministry
wrote on its Twitter feed, quoting minister Sergei Lavrov. We must know
who is shelling communities, thereby violating not only the Minsk
agreements, but also international humanitarian law.
Lavrov blamed Kiev for this weeks upsurge in fighting.
The February Minsk agreements are constantly under threat because of
the actions of the Kiev authorities, trying to walk away from their
obligations to foster direct dialogue with Donbass, he said.
Two men believed to be soldiers with Russias GRU military intelligence are
in custody in Kiev having been apprehended near Luhansk last month. The
men have said they were serving soldiers in a number of interviews, but
Russia has again insisted they were not. For a year Russia has denied all
involvement in the conflict despite an overwhelming amount of evidence to
the contrary.
Last week the OSCE observers said they had witnessed a group of armed
men wearing uniforms with Russian military markings in the conflict zone,
as well as vehicles with Russian military plates.
On Wednesday, the Interfax news agency quoted Valentina Matvienko,
speaker of the upper house of Russias parliament, saying it was possible an

extraordinary session of the house could be called in the coming days.


This is the mechanism by which Russia can officially authorise the use of its
troops on foreign territory. Later, however, the report was said to be a fake
by a spokesperson for the parliamentary body.
Additionally, Igor Strelkov, a retired Russian officer who led rebel armed
forces until August last year, claimed that the Kremlins powerful point man
on east Ukraine, Vladislav Surkov, had made a secret trip to Donetsk in the
past week to meet with rebel leaders.
Although the Minsk document contains a comprehensive peace plan
involving holding elections under Ukrainian law in east Ukraine and
returning to Kiev control of the border with Russia, most observers believe
the full provisions are unlikely to be carried out.
Minsk is impossible to fulfil in practice and in theory, and that was obvious
from the very first days, a European diplomat based in Kiev told the
Guardian recently. It was a stopgap measure to stop the bloodshed. We
have to have a plan B. But as far as I can see there is no plan B.
Last month the US secretary of state, John Kerry, visited Sochi and held
talks with Russias president, Vladimir Putin. A week later, US assistant
secretary of state Victoria Nuland travelled to Moscow to follow up with
meetings on Ukraine, as well as on Russian policy on Syria and Iran. Both
Kerry and Putin affirmed their commitments to solving the Ukraine crisis
through the Minsk agreement. Western leaders have repeatedly called on
Russia to stop interfering in east Ukraine, and have offered military training
to Ukrainian forces, but are unwilling to go further and provide weapons,
fearful of igniting an even bigger conflict.
Analysts say the resumption of a full-blown war still remains unlikely, with
Russia unwilling to move to a full-scale open invasion, and Kiev militarily
incapable of winning the territory back without enormous losses.
However, the fluid situation on the ground means there is always the risk
that minor skirmishes escalate into renewed conflict. Over 8,000 people
have died since hostilities started a year ago.
Posted by Thavam

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