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Capacity Development of

Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal

AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST DRAFT


SEPTEMBER 2012

Page Intentionally blank

Contents
1

INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................ 5

SCOPE ....................................................................................................................................................... 5

NEPAL HISTORICAL AIR TRANSPORT BACKGROUND ...................................................................... 6


3.1
AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HISTORICAL EVOLUTION .............................................................................7
AIR TRAFFIC SEASONAL BEHAVIOUR.............................................................................................. 10
3.2
AIR TRAFFIC TIPOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 14
3.3
International ............................................................................................................................... 14
3.3.1
Domestic .................................................................................................................................... 19
3.3.2
OPERATING AIR TRANSPORT COMPANIES ................................................................................................ 21
3.4
AIR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES IN NEPAL.......................................................................................... 23
3.5

DATA BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 28

METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................... 30

IBM SOFTWARE SPSS: PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SOFTWARE AND SOLUTIONS ........................ 31

REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 31

NOMENCLATURE ................................................................................................................................... 31

DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING.................................................................... 32


9.1
AVAILABLE DATA .................................................................................................................................. 32
DOM. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ...................................... 32
9.2
STD RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................... 38
9.3
Passengers ................................................................................................................................ 38
9.3.1
Aircraft Movements .................................................................................................................... 40
9.3.2
Cargo ......................................................................................................................................... 42
9.3.3

10

INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING...................................................... 44

10.1
AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 44
INT. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL..................................... 44
10.2
STI RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................... 45
10.3
10.3.1 Passengers ................................................................................................................................ 45
10.3.2 Aircraft Movements .................................................................................................................... 47
10.3.3 Cargo ......................................................................................................................................... 49
11

INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING ........................................................ 51

11.1
AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 51
INT. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ....................................... 51
11.2
LTI RESULTS...................................................................................................................................... 52
11.3
11.3.1 PESSIMISTIC ............................................................................................................................ 54
11.3.2 OPTIMISTIC .............................................................................................................................. 62
11.3.3 PROBABLE ............................................................................................................................... 68
12

DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING .................................................................. 74

12.1
AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 74
DOM. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL .................................... 74
12.2
LTD RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 76
12.3
12.3.1 PESSIMISTIC ............................................................................................................................ 77
12.3.2 OPTIMISTIC .............................................................................................................................. 85
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12.3.3
13

PROBABLE ............................................................................................................................... 91

REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTING ..................................................... 97

13.1
AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 97
REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ................. 105
13.2
13.2.1 Passengers .............................................................................................................................. 115
13.2.2 Aircraft Movements .................................................................................................................. 117
13.2.3 Cargo ....................................................................................................................................... 119
14

TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR FORECASTING .................................................................................... 121

14.1
AVAILABLE DATA ............................................................................................................................ 121
TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ................................................... 121
14.2
14.2.1 TRIBHUVAN PEAK DAY RESULTS ....................................................................................... 123
14.2.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR RESULTS .................................................................................... 129
14.2.3 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY ..................................................................................................... 135
14.2.4 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY PEAK HOUR .............................................................................. 136
15

NEPAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS EFFECTS IN AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST. ........... 137

16

ANNEX 1: SPSS MAIN RESULTS EXTRACTS................................................................................ 138

16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4

STD .................................................................................................................................................... 138


STI ..................................................................................................................................................... 139
LTI ...................................................................................................................................................... 140
LTD .................................................................................................................................................... 146

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INTRODUCTION

As introduction to this document, following, an ICAO 9184 Airport Planning


Documents extract, Chapter 3 Forecasting for Planning, 3.2.1:

Forecasting is the heart of planning and control processes. Forecasts are


necessary to define the facilities that will be required, the scale of such facilities,
and the time at which they will be required.
The objective of forecasting is not to predict the future with precision, but to
provide information that can be used to evaluate effects of uncertainty about the
future. Thus, both for physical planning and for financial assessment purposes,
consideration should be given not only to the implications of the forecasts
themselves but also to the implications of lack of precision in the forecasts and in
the conversion of the forecasts into planning criteria.
So, this document pretends to be a starting point document for the future Nepal Air
Transport Infrastructures and Management Planning.

SCOPE

The present document studies the future air traffic demand in Nepal. As required
at:
TASK (14): Review and validate the air traffic forecast for Tribhuvan International
Airport created under TA 7031 NEP. Develop this forecast further to account for
traffic anticipated to use the domestic airports during the timeframe of the NCADP.
A previous short review of the TA 7031 NEP document has been done, but
regarding to its conclusions sources and methods are not described in detail, it is
more appropriate a new air traffic forecast departing from actual scenario.
Following, a TIA complete air traffic demand analysis have been done, as well as
the following regional 14 airports air traffic study:

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STUDIED 14 REGIONAL AIRPORTS


ICAO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

IATA NEPAL

VNNG KEP

NAME

NG

Nepalgunj Airport

BR/VT

Biratnagar Airport

VNPK PKR

PK

Pokhara Airport

VNLK

LUA

LK

Lukla Airport

VNSK SKH

SK

Surkhet Airport

VNDH

DHI

DH

Dhangarhi Airport

VNSI

SIF

SI

Simara Airport

BW

Bhairahawa Airport

VNVT

BIR

VNBW BWA
JKR

JP

Janakpur Airport

VNBP BHR

VNJP

BP

VNCG BDP

BDP

Bharatpur Airport
Bhadrapur Airport (chandragadhi
Airport)

VNJL

JUM

JUM

Jumla Airport

VNJS

JMO

JMO

Jomsom Airport

VNST

IMK

IMK

Simikot Airport

CITY
Nepalgunj
Biratnagar
Pokhara
Lukla
Surkhet
Dhangarhi
Simara
Bhairahawa
Janakpur
Bharatpur
Bhadrapur / Chandragadhi
Jumla
Jomsom
Simikot

Regarding to domestic airports, the information and data compilation has been
hard to complete, so consultant team travelled to these airports, Biratnagar,
Nepalgunj, Pokhara, Surkhet, in order to achieve more complete and accurate
data.

Finally, Ermc-Ineco-Prointec consultant considers that a peak day and peak hour
analysis is an interesting and essential study for future airport plans, so a complete
analysis has been added in addition.

NEPAL HISTORICAL AIR TRANSPORT BACKGROUND

Aviation sector in Nepal has shown a tremendous growth in air travel demand and
in the number of flights after the country adopted a liberal sky policy since 1992.
The upsurge in Nepalese immigrant traffic to Malaysia and the Gulf region
especially from 2003 also contributed to the high growth in air travel demand.
International air traffic has crossed 2,7 million passengers in 2011, and the recent
growth trend has been most impressive.
This mentioned growth has been occurred both in international and domestic
traffic, as reflected in the following graphics. But international traffic shows more
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regular growing, instead the domestic passenger evolution has more variation,
depending on local circumstances.
Following data have been extracted from several archives and paper documents
provided by CAAN authority and other airport staff.
During this study, some incoherence and uncertainty have been detected
depending on different information sources. This study has synthesized all
received documents according to a logical criteria, in order to complete a good
departing data for an as accurate as possible air traffic demand forecast. These
departing data is the showed following, in tables and graphics, resumed in this
document and completed in attached annexes.
3.1

AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

INTERNATIONAL PAX EVOLUTION


3000000
2500000

Pax

2000000
DEPARTURES

1500000

ARRIVALS

1000000

TOTAL

500000
0
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995
Year

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: CAAN

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DOMESTIC PAX EVOLUTION


1800000
1600000
1400000

Pax

1200000
1000000

DEPARTURES

800000

ARRIVALS

600000

TOTAL

400000
200000
0
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year
Source: CAAN

Pax

TOTAL PAX EVOLUTION


5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1975

TOTAL

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year
Source: CAAN

Growth rates:

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PAX GROWTH RATE


0,2
0,1
0
-0,1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

-0,2

Source: CAAN

The same evolution has been observed in movement terms, directly related to
passengers.

TOTAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT EVOLUTION


120000
100000

TOTAL MOV.

80000
Pax

Growth Rate

0,3

Domestic
Movements

60000
40000

International
Movements

20000
0
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year
Source: CAAN

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So, as reflected, an obvious increasing growth has been observed in last years.
This means that Nepal CAAN authority planning must be ambitious and adjusted
to this positive evolution.
The complementary factor to be studied is the cargo air transport evolution, due to
its importance in the countrys socio economic evolution.

TOTAL CARGO EVOLUTION


25000000

6000000
5000000

20000000
Cargo ( Tn)

4000000
15000000

3000000

TOTAL MOV.

2000000

10000000

1000000
5000000
0
1975

INTERNATIONAL

DOMESTIC

0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

-1000000
2015

Year
Source: CAAN

In this case an irregular behavior is observed. The domestic cargo air transport
has been growing regular, except some years between 1995-2000. However,
international cargo air transport evolution has experienced an irregular behaviour
but tending to be more constant in last years.

3.2

AIR TRAFFIC SEASONAL BEHAVIOUR

Besides the historical air traffic evolution, in order to a global vision of the NEPAL
air transport, other facts must be observed.
Air traffic seasonal behavior is essential. An annual global data does not reflect
each airport monthly, weekly and daily reality, the most important factor for its
design and management.

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This analysis must begin with a seasonal behavior study. Regarding to these,
some 1995 and 1996 seasonal data has been received, but a continuous series is
necessary. This continuous series are available from 2006 to 2011:

DOMESTIC SEASONAL PAX EVOLUTION

Pax

200000

2006

150000

2007

100000

2008
2009

50000

2010

0
JAN

FEB

MAR ABR MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

2011

DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

INTERNATIONAL SEASONAL PAX EVOLUTION

300000
2006

Pax

250000
200000

2007

150000

2008

100000

2009

50000

2010

0
JAN

FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

JUL

AGO SEP

OCT NOV DIC

2011

Year
Source: CAAN

In these graphics can be observed that, both, in domestic and international


passenger traffic, a constant peak month exists every year. A constant seasonal
behavior is observed, but it not too sharp.
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Following, the corresponding data for aircraft movement and cargo air transport:

DOMESTIC SEASONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT EVOLUTION

10000
2006

Movement

8000

2007

6000

2008

4000

2009

2000

2010

2011

0
JAN

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

INTERNATIONAL SEASONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT EVOLUTION

2500

2006

Movement

2000

2007

1500

2008

1000

2009

500

2010

0
JAN

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

2011

Year
Source: CAAN

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As observed, aircraft movement seasonal evolution agrees with passengers.

DOMESTIC SEASONAL CARGO EVOLUTION

1200000
2006

Cargo

1000000
800000

2007

600000

2008

400000

2009

200000

2010

2011
JAN

FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT NOV

DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

INTERNATIONAL SEASONAL CARGO EVOLUTION

2000000
2006

Cargo

1500000

2007
2008

1000000

2009

500000

2010

2011

0
JAN

FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT NOV

DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

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3.3

AIR TRAFFIC TIPOLOGY

The air traffic typology is essential for an air traffic forecast, because each type of
passenger, his origin, nationality, travel purpose may vary depending on several
factors, affecting to the air traffic evolution.

3.3.1 International

The international passenger and cargo distribution has been observed in 2011
daily detailed air traffic data, and its as following:

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER AND CARGO DISTRIBUTION

TOTAL PAX

TOTAL CARGO

TOTAL PAX %

TOTAL CARGO %

SOUTH ASIA

1071718

1381763,6

39,70%

15,69%

MIDDLE EAST

1047639

3662982,1

38,80%

41,60%

SOUTH EAST ASIA

305054

2591451,7

11,30%

29,43%

EASTERN ASIA

275423

1168216,82

10,20%

13,27%
Source: CAAN

The photograph results:


TOTAL PAX

SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
SOUTH EAST ASIA
EASTERN ASIA

Source: CAAN
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TOTAL CARGO

SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
SOUTH EAST ASIA
EASTERN ASIA

Source: CAAN

Nepal adopted a liberal sky policy since 1992, and since then the government has
signed air agreements with four countries (Japan, UK, Qatar and Malaysia) and
MOU with 16 countries (Italy, Egypt, Luxemburg, Austria, Bahrain, Oman, Macao,
The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, Croatia, Israel, Philippines
and Turkey. Five more new countries are willing to sign the air agreement with
Nepal, namely, USA, Vietnam, Indonesia, Russia and Australia.
But the main gateways for air travel from Nepal are still the airports in India (Delhi
mainly), Gulf region (Doha, Dubai, Bahrain), and Thailand. Emergence of new
budget airlines from India and the Gulf region has contributed to their dominance
in the market.
As reflected in new data received, some of these Asian gateways are hubs
connecting Nepal with Europe region, North and South America and other
sources. For forecasting exercises, these traffics have been not included, because
the principal origins, are enough for a precise statistical analysis.

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For more details, see Section 2.4.

DETAILED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER AND CARGO DISTRIBUTION


TOTAL PAX

TOTAL CARGO

TOTAL PAX %

TOTAL CARGO %

1071718

1381763,6

39,70%

15,69%

AFGHANISTAN

0,00%

0,00%

BANGLADESH

155469

301432,6

5,76%

3,42%

SOUTH ASIA

BHUTAN

23943

62603

0,89%

0,71%

852532

719088

31,58%

8,17%

39771

298640

1,47%

3,39%

SRI LANKA
MIDDLE EAST

3
1047639

0
3662982,1

0,00%
38,80%

0,00%
41,60%

BAHRAIN

189469

439080,8

7,02%

4,99%

163

0,01%

0,00%

OMAN

67947

133047

2,52%

1,51%

QATAR

298285

1206215,6

11,05%

13,70%

491775
305054

1884638,7
2591451,7

18,22%
11,30%

21,41%
29,43%

CAMBODIA

10

0,00%

0,00%

INDONESIA

0,00%

0,00%

INDIA
PAKISTAN

ISRAEL

UAE
SOUTH EAST ASIA

LAOS

20

0,00%

0,00%

MALAYSIA

126186

348260,7

4,67%

3,96%

MYANMAR

173

0,01%

0,00%

PHILIPPINES

0,00%

0,00%

THAILAND
EASTERN ASIA

178665
275423

2243191
1168216,82

6,62%
10,20%

25,48%
13,27%

238687

911247,52

8,84%

10,35%

36736

256969,3

1,36%

2,92%

CHINA
SOUTH KOREA

Source: CAAN

Filtering data from different sources, a general photograph about different


international airlines operating in Nepal has been obtained. As observed, airlines
operating in Nepal have been varying, and growing:

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DETAILED INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE PASSENGERS DISTRIBUTION

ABY
AIA
AUA
BAB
BHA

BBC
CCA
CES
COZ
CSN
DRK
ETD
FDB
GFA
GMG
HAD
IGO
HKE

IAC
JAI
JLL
KAL
KFR
NAC
NACIL
NPL
NYT
OEA
OMA

PIA
QTR
RNA
RSH
SEJ
SLK
TFL
THA
UBD
OTHER

Air Arabia

2006
6928

2007
54907

2008
79383

AUA

11675

8072

103

Biman
Bangladesh
Airlines
Air China
COZ
China Suthern
Airlines
Royal Buthan
Airlines
Etihad Airways
FDB
Gulf Air
GMG Airlines
Dragon Air
HKE
National
Aviation
Company India
Jet Airways
Korean Air
NAC
NPL
NYT
OEA
Pakistan
International
Airlines
Quatar Airways
Nepal Airlines
Jet Lite
Silk Air
Thai Airways
OTHER

2009
2010
2011
131386 156147 187051
152451

TOTAL
615802
152451
19850
115882
8532

5,26%
1,30%
0,17%
0,99%
0,07%

32877

46726
1314

36279
7218

70727
29620
5133

105971
36536
18543

92258
43489
26828

473892
176551
50504
126927

4,05%
1,51%
0,43%
1,08%

21859

23368

46858

134787

1,15%

21868 21942 30332


77981 116496 127125
1822
81446 152274
207875 167699 264180 238527 178887 149566
4272
22394 15476 37077 60425 37389
41375 47658 68977 82854
18913
4873

147090
403082
235542
1206734
177033
240864
18913
4873

1,26%
3,44%
2,01%
10,31%
1,51%
2,06%
0,16%
0,04%

109055 143835 166479 199770


85963 88668 143796 167849 255161 272560
107271 112060 105087
2535
15992 21053 33099 31528 36571
55470 76586
174154 237751 232577 202041
175022
758
60105
3759
15409 68964

619139
1013997
324418
140778
132056
846523
175022
758
60105
3759
84373

5,29%
8,66%
2,77%
1,20%
1,13%
7,23%
1,50%
0,01%
0,51%
0,03%
0,72%

25979 28133 53435 58161 47610 39668


183786 183651 195153 251214 300184 277796
276381 207552
86475 87631 93157
22667 183594
255
44689 52372 52906 49914
2660
6668
7289
196865 170133 169669 186466 175422 154070
24155 22274
11622 14984 12320 13999 12941 12728

252986
1391784
483933
267263
206261
200136
16617
1052625
46429
78594

2,16%
11,89%
4,13%
2,28%
1,76%
1,71%
0,14%
8,99%
0,40%
0,67%

46371
19713

58171
31192

100394
16001

82265

1968

42694

16731

25971

26433
1061

21992
80419

24523

Source: CAAN

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This general vision about the operators could be very helpful for the future
management planning.
QTR Quatar Airways
GFA Gulf Air
THA Thai Airways
JAI Jet Airways
IAC National Aviation Company India
ABY Air Arabia

INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES

RNA Nepal Airlines


BBC Biman Bangladesh Airlines
ETD Etihad Airways
JLL
RSH Jet Lite
PIA Pakistan International Airlines
HAD Dragon Air
FDB FDB
SEJ
SLK Silk Air
GMG GMG Airlines
CCA Air China
NACIL
AIA
DRK Royal Buthan Airlines
KAL Korean Air
CSN China Suthern Airlines
KFR
COZ COZ
BAB
OMA
OTHER
NYT NYT
CES
UBD
AUA AUA
IGO
TFL
BHA
HKE HKE
OEA OEA
NPL NPL
Source: CAAN

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3.3.2 Domestic

On the domestic front, there has been equally significant and consistent growth in
air traffic demand, especially in the increasing number of flights of small aircrafts.
The leading carriers are Buddha Air and Yeti Airline about 75% of domestic air
passenger traffic.
DETAILED DOMESTIC AIRLINES PASSENGER DISTRIBUTION

2006
BA
YA
AG
GA
TA
NAC
ST
CA

Buddha
Air
Yeti
Airlines
Aigni Air
Guna
Airlines
TARA AIR

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

TOTAL

396599 420963 403753 556917 615567 691023 3084822 41,96%


240059 456217 457615 480856 478225 449450 2562422 34,85%
18254 28378 56094 174244 193313 197523 667806 9,08%
38987

36728

17074

45973 25490
Sita Air
34010 26691
Air China 107153 1426
Nepal
RA
Airlines
38575 6321
Air
AD
Dinasty
971
1740
SA
3659
6456
FDA
FDA
204
586
MH
4136
MA
Manag Air 3112
373
Shree
SH
Airlines
437
236
OTHERS OTHERS
1927
SM
SM
27
56
Korean
KA
Air
415
IMPRO
IMPRO
3
174
HH
HH
161
NSBS
NSBS
4
40
VVIP
VVIP
32
6
Asian
Helicopter

52220
25042
19760

40834 96122 95542


42724 103224 78241
53406 47081
25194 10983 15543
0

3181
437
657

1916

2509

2311

1395

3066
3449

2813

264

84

341

61
41
196

734

168

428

1122

116

0
32
0
0

325287
224189
224170
137463
128339

4,42%
3,05%
3,05%
1,87%
1,75%

44896

0,61%

12628
10552
8721
7585
3833

0,17%
0,14%
0,12%
0,10%
0,05%

1977
1968
1945

0,03%
0,03%
0,03%

415
209
161
44
38

0,01%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%

Source: CAAN
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DOMESTIC AIRLINES
BA Buddha Air
YA Yeti Airlines
AG Aigni Air
GA Guna
Airlines
NAC
ST Sita Air
CA Air China
RA Nepal
Airlines

Source: CAAN

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3.4

Operating Air Transport Companies

Bilateral: Nepal has signed bilateral air service agreements with 36 countries.
This provides for 5.7 million seats per annum to and from Nepal. However, not
even 40% of this capacity is being utilized by the operating airlines so far. The
signing of a letter agreement with India multiplied seat provision five times to
30,000 seats per week and unlimited air cargo flights between India and Nepal has
been a milestone in Nepalese civil aviation.
Airline Operators: Twenty-nine international airlines are presently operating 284
schedule air services from Kathmandu to some 22 cities in Asia and Europe. Five
new international airlines started their air services to Kathmandu in 2010
(Kingfisher, Oman Air, Buddha Air, Spice Jet and Indigo Air). Buddha Air started
flights to Lucknow (India) from January 2011 and to Varanashi (India) from March
1, 2012. RAK Airways is the newest airline operating services to Kathmandu from
February 15, 2012. Among the other new airlines proposing services to Nepal are
Turkish Airline from Istanbul (October 2012), Air Lankan from Colombo.
Thus, the number of international airlines operating air services from Kathmandu
has reached 29, and the number of flights they operate increased to 284 flights per
week, thereby producing some 47,523 seats for passengers and 914 ton capacity
for cargo movement from Kathmandu each week.
In the last years, five new airlines (namely, Buddha Air International, Shree
Airlines International, Akashbhairav Air International, Goma Air and Skytech Heli
Services were licensed to operate air services and Air Operator Certificates (AOC)
have been issued. Three of them are fixed wing operators and two are helicopter
companies. Under the policy to access remote areas, single engine fixed wing
aircraft and helicopter operations have been facilitated to operate passenger and
cargo services in remote mountain areas of Nepal.
Out of the 86 aircrafts registered in Nepal, 69 aircrafts are in operational condition.
This includes 46 fixed wing aircraft and 18 helicopters. On the aviation sports side,
five of the eight companies who have acquired Air Operator Certificate (AOC) are
operational. For the promotion of tourism through aerial sports and entertainment
activities, aviation sports activities have been extended beyond Pokhara to
Kathmandu, Bandipur and other touristic areas of Nepal.

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NEW AIRLINES OPERATION SERVICE START

Year
2006

2007

2008
2009

2010

2012

New Airlines operating services


GMG from Dhaka Bangladesh
Air Arabia from Sarjah, United Arab
Emirates
Korean Air from Seoul, South Korea
China Southern from Guangzhou,
China
Etihad from Abu Dhabi
Silk Air from Singapore
Dragon Air from Hong Kong
Hong Kong Express from Hong Kong
Orient Thai from Bangkok, Thailand
Fly Yeti.com/ Air Arabia to Dubai, UAE
Bahrain Air from Bahrain
China Eastern from Kunming, China
TUI/ Arkfly from Amsterdam, The
Netherlands
Fly Dubai/ Dubai Aviation from Dubai,
UAE
Kingfisher Airline from Delhi, India
Oman Air from Muscat,
Buddha Air to Paro (Bhutan), Lucknow
and Varanasi, India
Spice Jet from Delhi, India
Indigo Airlines from Delhi, India
United Airlines from Dhaka,Bangladesh
RAK Airways from Dubai

Service start
October 23
November 7
November 13
February 5
October 26
October 30
December 2
December 13
December 30
July 8
March 17
September 8
October
December 15

January 15
September 2
September 23
October 7
October 28
December
February 12
Source: CAAN

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3.5

Air Transport Infrastructures in Nepal

At present there are 54 airports including six under construction. Among these
airports, 34 airports are operational with regular air services:

International Airport. Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu.


Domestic Hub Airports. There are 4 regional Airports: Biratnagar Airport,
Pokhara Airport, Bhairawa Airport and Nepalgunj Airport.
Other Domestic Airports. There are 36 airports, only 29 in operation.

There is a new project for a second international Airport at Nijgadh.


Nepal is a mountainous country and most of the areas in western side are not
linked by road, so the air transport is the only mean of transportation. The
Government has been demanded to build new airports because of social
connectivity.
Maintenance of many domestic airports is problematic and new airports are being
built under political pressure. Some strict criteria are needed for adding new
airports.
In this aspect, CAAN Board has decided handing over the operation and
management of some 7 remote area airports in western Nepal to the local
community (district development committee) and the concept is in the process of
government approval.

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Tribhuvan International Airport


Significant progress has been made in the airport recently:
Now, under a loan and grant contract between Nepal government and Asian
Development Bank signed on May 25, 2010, a loan of US$70 million and grant of
US $ 10 million will be available for undertaking Priority 1A works in the first phase
of TIA Master Plan 2026 in order to improve the capacity of air transport and flight
safety in TIA.

In addition to the above, the loan and grant program for TIA will also cover some
works at Simikot airport, Rara airport at Mugu and Lukla airport.

Tribhuvan International Airport

Pokhara Airport
Pokhara Regional International airport is one of the national high priority projects
in Nepal. 34 years ago Nepal Government acquired land of 158 hector for regional
International Airport. This site is 4 KM far (east) from existing Pokhara airport and
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potential for 2500 meter length runway and can be constructed to ICAO 4D
requirement.
Government of Nepal is willing to construct this airport from Chinese Exim Bank
Loan. For that CAAN has published a notice for Engineering, procurement and
Construction (EPC) contract Tender from Chinese eligible bidders on February 9,
2011. The last date of tender submission is extended to April 24, 2012.
The aim of these projects to allow direct flights to Lucknow in India at existing
Pokhara Airport:

Pokhara Airport

Gautam Buddha Regional International Airport


An agreement has been signed between Nepal Government and Asian
Development Bank for US$28 million loan and US$6.41 million grant for the
development of Gautam Buddha International airport under South Asian Tourism
Infrastructure Development project to help develop tourism in Lumbini area and to
diversify congestion at TIA.

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Currently Gautam Buddha Airport (GBA) is operated as a domestic hub airport.


The length of existing runway is 1524m and is 30m wide.
Government of Nepal has received a US$28 million loan and US$6.41 million
grant from ADB through South Asia Tourism Infrastructure Development Project
(SATIDP) for upgrading the GBA to Regional International Airport. Financing
agreement between ADB and Finance Ministry was signed on April 25, 2010.
Design and Supervision consultant was mobilized from September, 2011 and right
now they are engaged on design works. Procurement process also has started on
January 2012 for prequalification of contractor for civil works. Submitted
prequalification applications are under the evaluation. Probably the civil works
contractor will be mobilized on October, 2012. Project Completion date will be
2015.

Gautam Buddha Airport

Second International Airport


In 2007, Government of Nepal decided to build full flagged Second International
Airport (SIA) in Bara, Nijgadgh through BOOT Scheme. One Korean private
company conducted detail feasibility study and submitted a proposal to Nepal
Government through BOOT scheme. This report is under study in the Ministry of
Tourism and Civil Aviation.
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Decisions on this project will affect severely to the Capacity Development Plan of
the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal.

Bara Region Nepal

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DATA BACKGROUND

ERM-PROINTEC-INECO joint venture has been named to, as part of the Nepal
Airport Development project, study the Nepal Air Traffic configuration and its
forecast for the next 20 years.
This forecast must observe as much as factors as possible, including determining
and historical data,. This makes possible a complete short term, long term, peak
hour and other air traffic analysis for Nepal in different scenarios for the next
years.

For that purpose, Nepal TIA CAAN authorities provide ERM-PROINTEC-INECO


JV the following documentation folders:

2006 data
CAAN Report 2010 RAJ
Data 2007
DATA 2012
Flight permission airport data
INTERNATIONAL DATA 2010
2011

Containing more than 1400 archives.


As well as:

Paper Documents:
o Civil Aviation Report 2009-2010
o Civil Aviation Report 2008

On the other hand, MOTCA provides:

Paper Documents:
o Nepal Tourism Statistics 2010
o Nepal Tourism Statistics 2008

Electronic Documents:
o Nepal Tourism Politics
o Nepal Economic information

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Starting from this initial point, an exhaustive leaking and analysis have been done
in order to clean and organize the necessary data for each kind of forecast.

As a result of this analysis, the following archives have been generated:

DATA SUMMARY 31.08.12


2011_DAILY PEAK HOUR
REGIONAL AIRPORTS FORECAST
STD-STI NATCONSUMEPRICE
LTD-LTI INDIA NEPAL GDP

Instead the documentation is wide, is not continuous and has low detail for a more
precise forecast. Due to this, some hypothesis have been done during the study,
and these hypothesis are described in each following section.

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METHODOLOGY

REQUIRED
AVAILABLE

TEMPORAL
SERIES

PROVIDED

HYPOTHESIS

STI
STD
LTI

OTHER INPUTS

LTD

VARIABLES

AIR TRAFFIC
CHARACTERIZATION

FORECAST

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IBM SOFTWARE SPSS: Predictive analytics software and solutions

SPSS Predictive Analytics software and solutions has been the selected
software for this Nepal Air Traffic forecasting and data analysis.
SPSS, developed by IBM, is among the most widely used programs for
statistical analysis in social science. It is used by market researchers, health
researchers, survey companies, government, education researchers, marketing
organizations and others.

The original SPSS manual (Nie, Bent & Hull, 1970) has been described as
one of "sociology's most influential books". In addition to statistical analysis, data
management (case selection, file reshaping, creating derived data) and data
documentation (a metadata dictionary is stored in the datafile) are features of the
base software.
This software has been supported by excel statistical tools, and guided by ICAO
and FAA manuals and recommendation for Air Traffic Forecasting. Each followed
criteria is fully described in every section, as well as each formulated hyphotesis.
7

REFERENCES

Doc. 8991 Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting. ICAO


FAA Forecasting Aviation Activitiy by Airports
IATA Airport Development Reference Manual
ICAO Doc. 9184 Airport Planning Manual

NOMENCLATURE

STD: Short Term Domestic Forecasting


STI: Short Term International Forecasting
LTD: Long Term Domestic Forecasting
LTI: Long Term International Forecasting
CARGO: Freight, in Kgs.
PAX: Passengers
MOV: Aircraft operation, movement, landing or take off
DOM: Domestic
INT: International
GDP: Gross Domestic Product

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DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING

9.1

AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data are needed fore an international medium term
forecasting:

Medium-Term Forecast, focused on monthly data for the past 5 years (60
months).

The present data analysis has obtained the following series:

9.2

Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Daily domestic traffic by region/country/airport destination/origin 2011
10 Domestic (regional) airports traffic annual data, from 2003 to 2009
Tourists arrival information 2008-2010

DOM. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

Regarding to the available data, the initial approach has been the following:
The short term domestic traffic evolution, the next years, has been considerate
that will be in accordance to the National Consume Price evolution in these years.

Regarding to this hypothesis, this National Consume Price has been obtained
from the available documentation, from 01.07.2007 to 01.09.2011.

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NATIONAL CONSUME PRICE RATE


National Consume Price
01.07.2007
01.08.2007
01.09.2007
01.10.2007
01.11.2007
01.12.2007
01.01.2008
01.02.2008
01.03.2008
01.04.2008
01.05.2008
01.06.2008
01.07.2008
01.08.2008
01.09.2008
01.10.2008
01.11.2008
01.12.2008
01.01.2009
01.02.2009
01.03.2009
01.04.2009
01.05.2009
01.06.2009
01.07.2009
01.08.2009
01.09.2009
01.10.2009
01.11.2009
01.12.2009
01.01.2010
01.02.2010
01.03.2010
01.04.2010
01.05.2010
01.06.2010
01.07.2010
01.08.2010
01.09.2010
01.10.2010
01.11.2010
01.12.2010
01.01.2011

108,15
111,15
112,10
112,15
111,35
110,15
110,10
111,15
112,85
114,70
116,45
118,50
121,50
124,70
126,55
127,30
126,45
125,10
124,95
125,65
126,65
128,50
130,70
132,15
134,35
136,70
137,75
138,55
138,75
138,30
138,55
138,80
139,10
140,45
141,85
143,55
146,80
149,05
149,70
150,45
151,15
152,60
153,30

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01.02.2011
01.03.2011
01.04.2011
01.05.2011
01.06.2011
01.07.2011
01.08.2011
01.09.2011

153,15
153,85
154,45
154,65
156,70
159,45
161,10
162,75
Source: CAAN

Departing from this initial data, a simple regression for this National Consume
Price and Domestic Short Term Forecasting has been set out, and the following
predictions and forecastings have been estimated.

For this porpoise, SPSS software program has been utilized. Through SPSS, and
for each case of series data, the best statistical forecast or prediction has been
chosen: ARIMAS, Holt, Medias, regression, exponential softening, etc.

As the short term National Consume Price factor is cyclic, seasonal, a previous
seasonal factorization have been carried out, in order to avoid this influence in the
short term forecasting. Once the forecasting is estimated, this seasonal
characteristic has been replaced.

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NATIONAL CONSUM PRICE EVOLUTION


250,00

National Consume Price

200,00

150,00

Seasonally fitted series


NatConsumPrice

ARIMA

100,00

50,00

0,00
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Obtaining the following forecast:

NATIONAL CONSUME PRICE RATE FORECAST

National Consume Price


01.10.2011
01.11.2011
01.12.2011
01.01.2012
01.02.2012
01.03.2012
01.04.2012
01.05.2012
01.06.2012
01.07.2012
01.08.2012
01.09.2012
01.10.2012
01.11.2012

161,24
162,85
164,63
166,11
167,27
168,03
168,45
168,89
169,38
169,98
170,78
171,64
172,69
173,98

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01.12.2012
01.01.2013
01.02.2013
01.03.2013
01.04.2013
01.05.2013
01.06.2013
01.07.2013
01.08.2013
01.09.2013
01.10.2013
01.11.2013
01.12.2013
01.01.2014
01.02.2014
01.03.2014
01.04.2014
01.05.2014
01.06.2014
01.07.2014
01.08.2014
01.09.2014
01.10.2014
01.11.2014
01.12.2014
01.01.2015
01.02.2015
01.03.2015
01.04.2015
01.05.2015
01.06.2015
01.07.2015
01.08.2015
01.09.2015
01.10.2015
01.11.2015
01.12.2015
01.01.2016
01.02.2016
01.03.2016
01.04.2016
01.05.2016
01.06.2016
01.07.2016
01.08.2016
01.09.2016
01.10.2016

175,27
176,49
177,55
178,31
178,87
179,36
179,83
180,36
180,98
181,69
182,51
183,43
184,39
185,32
186,15
186,82
187,36
187,81
188,23
188,65
189,11
189,63
190,21
190,85
191,52
192,18
192,78
193,29
193,71
194,05
194,35
194,63
194,93
195,25
195,61
196,00
196,40
196,80
197,17
197,48
197,72
197,91
198,05
198,18
198,29
198,41
198,55

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01.11.2016
01.12.2016
01.01.2017
01.02.2017
01.03.2017
01.04.2017
01.05.2017
01.06.2017
01.07.2017
01.08.2017
01.09.2017
01.10.2017
01.11.2017
01.12.2017

198,70
198,86
199,02
199,15
199,24
199,29
199,29
199,26
199,20
199,13
199,05
198,97
198,90
198,83

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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9.3

STD RESULTS

9.3.1 Passengers

Available data about domestic passengers is the following:

AVAILABLE DATA
DOMESTIC MONTHLY PASSENGERS 2007-2011
200000
180000
160000

Domestic Pax

140000
120000

Domesti
c
Passeng
ers

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Apr-12

Feb-11

Jan-10

Dec-08

Nov-07

Oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Departing from the National Consume Price Evolution, a lineal correlation has
been estimated, obtaining domestic passengers Short Term Forecast:

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DOMESTIC SHORT TERM PASSENGERS FORECAST


300000
250000

Pax

200000
150000
Domestic
Passengers
Short Term
Forecast

100000
50000
0
May-16

Dec-14

Aug-13

Apr-12

Nov-10

Jul-09

Feb-08

Oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

STD PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

STD Passengers
1.036.586
1.377.868
1.542.393
1.645.763
1.948.000
2.120.600
2.259.600
2.360.800

Growing
Rates
33%
12%
7%
18%
9%
7%
4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

It is very clarifying the resulting graphic correlation between domestic passengers


evolution and the National Consume Price evolution. As it can be observed,
enough for an econometrical model. The R2 is high, near 80%,.

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DOMESTIC SHORT TERM FORECAST


VS.
NATIONAL CONSUME PRICE
300000

250,00

250000

200,00

200000
Pax

150,00

Domestic
Passengers
Short Term
Forecast

150000
100,00
100000

National
Consum
Price

50,00

50000
0

0,00
may-16

dic-14

ago-13

abr-12

nov-10

jul-09

feb-08

oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

9.3.2 Aircraft Movements


The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.
With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it: Trend lines
(lineal, potential and logarithmic), as well as constant occupation and different
ARIMAS trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that, with all
techniques, this occupation is almost constant, so the most coherent ARIMA has
been done for future occupation rate.
This occupation rate has been developing from 13,5 aprox. in 2007 to 20
passengers per aircraft in 2011, so an estimation from 20 passengers to 22 has
been considered for the short term future. Showed in the following graphic:

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DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT OCCUPATION RATE FORECAST


25

Pax

20
Aircraft
Occupation
Rate
Forecast

15
10
5
0
may-16

dic-14

ago-13

abr-12

nov-10

jul-09

feb-08

oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

According to these criteria, the results for domestic aircraft movement forecast are
the following:

DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT FORECAST


12000
10000

Mov

8000
6000

Commercial
Aircraft
Movement
Short Term
Forecast

4000
2000
0
May-16

Dec-14

Aug-13

Apr-12

Nov-10

Jul-09

Feb-08

Oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
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STD AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

STD Commercial
Growing
Aircraft
Rates
Movements
69.286
76.191
10%
79.892
5%
81.594
2%
95.825
17%
102.100
7%
106.825
5%
109.875
3%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

9.3.3 Cargo
The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.
With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it:
Trend lines (lineal, potential and logarithmic), as well as constant occupation and
different ARIMAS trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that,
with all techniques, this occupation is almost constant, so the most coherent
ARIMA has been done for future occupation rate, estimating a 56 kgs. per
domestic movement approximately.

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DOMESTIC AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT


80
70
60

Domestic
Average
Cargo
Occupation
over aircraft

Cargo ( Kgs.)

50
40
30
20
10
0
may-16

dic-14

ago-13

abr-12

nov-10

jul-09

feb-08

oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Following, results:

DOMESTIC CARGO FORECAST


1200000

Cargo (Kgs)

1000000
800000
600000

Domestic
Cargo (Kgs.)
Short Term
Forecast

400000
200000
0
May-16

Dec-14

Aug-13

Apr-12

Nov-10

Jul-09

Feb-08

Oct-06

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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STD CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

STD Cargo
4.803.533
4.384.475
3.731.083
4.400.231
5.221.400
5.552.450
5.807.500
5.972.300

Growing
Rates
-9%
-15%
18%
19%
6%
5%
3%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

10

INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING

10.1 AVAILABLE DATA


The following historical data are needed for an international medium term
forecasting:

Medium-Term Forecast, focused on monthly O/D data for the past 5 years
(60 months).

The data analysis has obtained the following series:

Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Daily traffic by region/country/airport destination/origin 2011
Tourists arrival information 2008-2010

10.2 INT. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

The short term international traffic evolution,for the close years, has been
considerate that will be in accordance to the domestic vs. international traffic
historical relationship in the last past 5 year. This PAXINT/PAXDOM rate has been
obtain from 2007 to 2011and statistically predicted for the short term forecast. The
result is that this rate is approximately 170 % for the next close years.
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INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS OVER DOMESTIC PASSENGERS


RATE
350%
300%

Rate

250%
% International
Passengers /
Domestic
Passengers

200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
may-16

dic-14

ago-13

abr-12

nov-10

jul-09

feb-08

oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

As observed, except in specific months, is a very constant relationship and easily


predictable in statistic terms.

Departing from this initial data, STI, Short Term International Passenger forecast
has been developed, and the same technique as for the domestic movement and
cargo forecasting has been followed for the international movement and cargo
prediction.

10.3 STI RESULTS


10.3.1 Passengers

Available data about international passengers is the following:

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AVAILABLE DATA
INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY PASSENGERS 2007-2011
300000
250000

PaxInt

200000
150000
International
Monthly
Passengers

100000
50000
0
Apr-12

Sep-11

Feb-11

Aug-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Nov-07

Apr-07

Oct-06

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Departing from this data and its rate over domestic passengers, international
passengers Short Term Forecast:

PaxInt

INTERNATIONAL SHORT TERM PASSENGERS FORECAST


500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0

International
Passengers
Short Term
Forecast

May-16

Dec-14

Aug-13

Apr-12

Nov-10

Jul-09

Feb-08

Oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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STI PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

STI Passengers
1.830.630
2.027.147
2.429.130
2.705.577
3.286.500
3.582.300
3.817.100
3.988.100

Growing
Rates
11%
20%
11%
21%
9%
7%
4%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

10.3.2 Aircraft Movements


The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.
With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it, as well as
constant occupation and different ARIMAS trough SPSS. The observed conclusion
with this study is that, with all techniques, this occupation is almost constant, so
the most coherent ARIMA has been done for future occupation rate.

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INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT OCCUPATION RATE FORECAST


160
140
120
Pax

100

Aircraft
Occupation
Rate Forecast

80
60
40
20
0
may-16

dic-14

ago-13

abr-12

nov-10

jul-09

feb-08

oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

This occupation rate has been varying between 102 and 144 passengers from
2007 to 2011, so an estimation of 124 passengers per aircraft has been
considered for the short term future.

According to this, the following results:

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INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST


4000
3500
3000
Mov

2500
2000

Commercial
Aircraft
Movement
Short Term
Forecast

1500
1000
500
0
May-16

Dec-14

Aug-13

Apr-12

Nov-10

Jul-09

Feb-08

Oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

STI AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

STI Aircraft
Growing
Movements
Rates
14.276
15.701
10%
19.417
24%
24.652
27%
26.450
7%
28.850
9%
30.750
7%
32.075
4%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

10.3.3 Cargo
The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.
With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it
trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate has been
very irregular, decreasing in last year. With all techniques the most coherent rate
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estimation for the close future occupation rate, is 779 kgs. aprox. per international
movement.

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT


1600
1400
1200

International
Average
Cargo
Occupation
over aircraft

Cargo ( Kgs.)

1000
800
600
400
200
0
may-16

dic-14

ago-13

abr-12

nov-10

jul-09

feb-08

oct-06

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

As can be observed, 2011 cargo data falls significantly, but this last has not been
highly considered, being them unusual.

INTERNATIONAL CARGO FORECAST


3500000

Cargo (Kgs)

3000000
2500000
2000000
International
Cargo (Kgs.)
Short Term
Forecast

1500000
1000000
500000
0
May-16

Dec-14

Aug-13

Apr-12

Nov-10

Jul-09

Feb-08

Oct-06

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
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STI CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

STI Cargo
13.886.146
15.349.037
14.003.661
8.817.283
20.617.875
22.475.125
23.948.050
25.020.525

Growing
Rates
11%
-9%
-37%
134%
9%
7%
4%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

11

INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING

11.1 AVAILABLE DATA


The following historical data are needed fore an international long term
forecasting:

O/D annual data for the last 15 years.

The available data analysis has obtained the following series:

Annual data from 1981 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo
Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Daily traffic by region/country/airport destination/origin 2011

11.2 INT. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL


Regarding to the available data, the initial approach and hyphotesis is that the
international long term air traffic is related to each origin/destination country.
GDPs of all principal origin/destination countries (see section 2.3.1. above) have
been observed, and India and Nepal GDPs have been finally selected for the
different scenarios forecasting.
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Depending of different countries GDPs and forecasting models, the scenario


changes in an optimistic or pessimistic way, so, as ICAO recommendations
indicate, this exercise is very useful and lighting for future long term different
situations study.
The present study observes as first step the pessimistic scenario, and second, the
optimistic scenario. Departing from these to situation, a probable scenario is
calculated statistically.

11.3 LTI RESULTS

For a complete future vision of the Nepal air traffic demand, a several situation
exercise have been done, in order to study the different factors influence in the
future air traffic demand.

Available data about international passengers is the following:


GDP: Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita.
Source: International Monetary Fund ( IMF).
IMFs real data, as well as IMFs prediction for GDPs until 2017 has been utilized,
and a prediction has been done over this series with SPSS.

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GDP

GDP EVOLUTION AND PREDICTION 1981-2035


9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1970

India

Nepal

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Regarding to international passengers historical evolution

INTERNATIONAL PAX EVOLUTION


3000000
2500000

Pax

2000000
DEPARTURES

1500000

ARRIVALS

1000000

TOTAL

500000
0
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995
Year

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.1 PESSIMISTIC

For a pessimistic situation, India and Nepal GDP evolution has been considered.
Departing from this hypothesis, SPSS statistical prediction has been obtained with
the following criteria:

Independents: India y Nepal.


ARIMA ( 0,2,0).
Transf Func..:
NEPALGDP: num=1 Denom= 0 Dif.=0 Retardo=1 INDIA: None

And the same methods as in ST Forecasting have been utilized to extrapolate


passengers predictions to aircraft movements and cargo predictions.

11.3.1.1

Passengers

INTERNATIONAL PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

10.000.000
9.000.000
8.000.000
7.000.000
Pax

6.000.000
5.000.000
4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Pessimistic
Growing
Passengers
Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
1.830.630
2.027.147
2.429.130
2.705.577
3.286.500
3.582.300
3.817.100
4.062.000
4.307.000
4.548.000
4.769.000
4.969.000
5.152.000
5.321.000
5.478.000
5.628.000
5.775.000
5.923.000
6.077.000
6.243.000
6.425.000
6.630.000
6.865.000
7.137.000
7.452.000
7.820.000
8.248.000
8.746.000
5,01%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.1.2

Aircraft Movements

The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.
With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it.

INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT OCCUPATION RATE FORECAST

180
160
140

Pax

120
100
80

International
aircraft
Occupation
Rate

60
40
20
0
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

This occupation rate has been growing irregularly from 62 and 124 passengers
from 1981 to 2011, so a growing statistical estimation has been considered, from
124 passengers per aircraft in 2012 to 168 passengers per aircraft in 2035.

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INTERNATIONAL PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM


FORECAST

60.000
50.000

Pax

40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Pessimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
14.276
15.701
19.417
24.652
26.450
28.850
30.750
31.350
32.750
34.050
35.200
36.150
36.950
37.650
38.225
38.750
39.225
39.700
40.200
40.775
41.425
42.225
43.175
44.350
45.750
47.425
49.450
51.825
3,14%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.1.3

Cargo

The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.
With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it
trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate has been
very irregular, decreasing in last year.

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT

3.000
2.500

Cargo ( Kgs.)

2.000
International
Average Cargo
Occupation
over aircraft

1.500
1.000
500
0
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

With all techniques the most coherent rate estimation for the close future
occupation rate, is 779 kgs. aprox. per international movement.
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INTERNATIONAL PESSIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

45.000.000
40.000.000
35.000.000

Pax

30.000.000
25.000.000
20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI PESSIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Pessimistic
Cargo Forecast
13.886.146
15.349.037
14.003.661
8.817.283
20.617.875
22.475.125
23.948.050
24.408.200
25.499.100
26.527.200
27.413.875
28.159.300
28.785.175
29.313.750
29.767.750
30.170.275
30.545.200
30.916.850
31.310.200
31.751.050
32.265.875
32.881.900
33.627.450
34.533.725
35.626.450
36.939.125
38.503.925
40.354.250

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

6,54%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.2 OPTIMISTIC

For a optimistic situation, India and Nepal GDP evolution has been considered.
Departing from this hypothesis, SPSS statistical optimistic prediction has been
obtained with the following criteria:

Independents: India y Nepal.


ARIMA ( 0,1,0) . Transf.
NEPALGDP: num=1 Denom=0 Dif.=0 Retardo=0 INDIA: None

Func.:

And the same methods than for the pessimistic scenario have been utilized to
extrapolate passengers predictions to aircraft movements and cargo predictions.

11.3.2.1

Passengers

Pax

INTERNATIONAL OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST


16.000.000
14.000.000
12.000.000
10.000.000
8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Optimistic
Growing
Passengers
Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
1.830.630
2.027.147
2.429.130
2.705.577
3.286.500
3.582.300
3.817.100
4.284.000
4.812.000
5.422.000
6.067.000
6.703.000
7.330.000
7.945.000
8.545.000
9.128.000
9.692.000
10.234.000
10.751.000
11.241.000
11.700.000
12.125.000
12.513.000
12.861.000
13.164.000
13.419.000
13.622.000
13.768.000
7,01%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.2.2

Aircraft Movements

LTI Optimistic Aircraft Movements Result Table:

INTERNATIONAL OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM


FORECAST
90.000
80.000
70.000

Pax

60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT FORECAST RESULTS TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Optimistic
Aircraft
Movements
Forecast
14.276
15.701
19.417
24.652
26.450
28.850
30.750
33.050
36.575
40.600
44.775
48.775
52.575
56.200
59.625
62.825
65.825
68.600
71.125
73.400
75.450
77.200
78.700
79.900
80.800
81.400
81.650
81.575

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

5,11%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.2.3

Cargo

INTERNATIONAL OPTIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

70.000.000
60.000.000

Pax

50.000.000
40.000.000
30.000.000
20.000.000
10.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI OPTIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Optimistic
Cargo Forecast
13.886.146
15.349.037
14.003.661
8.817.283
20.617.875
22.475.125
23.948.050
25.744.225
28.487.625
31.626.025
34.874.275
37.984.750
40.951.825
43.769.475
46.431.625
48.931.725
51.263.100
53.418.775
55.391.275
57.173.050
58.756.075
60.131.900
61.291.900
62.230.875
62.931.400
63.387.600
63.589.075
63.525.025

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.3

PROBABLE

11.3.3.1

Passengers

Departing from this data, the most probable international passengers Long Term
Forecast has been done considering India and Nepal GDP evolution. For the most
probable scenario, an SPSS statistical model has been used:

Independents: India y Nepal. Expert Modeler. Model BROWN

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER PROBABLE LONG TERM FORECAST


12.000.000
10.000.000

Pax

8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Passengers
Forecast
1.830.630
2.027.147
2.429.130
2.705.577
3.286.500
3.582.300
3.817.100
4.134.000
4.437.000
4.740.000
5.044.000
5.347.000
5.650.000
5.953.000
6.256.000
6.559.000
6.863.000
7.166.000
7.469.000
7.772.000
8.075.000
8.378.000
8.682.000
8.985.000
9.288.000
9.591.000
9.894.000
10.198.000

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

5,68%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.3.2

Aircraft Movements

INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM FORECAST

70.000
60.000
50.000

Pax

40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI AIRCRAFT
Growing
Movements
Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
14.276
15.701
19.417
24.652
26.450
28.850
30.750
31.900
33.725
35.500
37.225
38.900
40.525
42.125
43.650
45.150
46.600
48.025
49.400
50.750
52.075
53.350
54.600
55.825
57.025
58.175
59.300
60.425
3,81%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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11.3.3.3

Cargo

INTERNATIONAL CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

50.000.000
45.000.000
40.000.000
35.000.000
Pax

30.000.000
25.000.000
20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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LTI CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTI Cargo
Forecast
13.886.146
15.349.037
14.003.661
8.817.283
20.617.875
22.475.125
23.948.050
24.842.500
26.267.125
27.649.900
28.992.675
30.297.150
31.564.950
32.797.600
33.996.525
35.163.100
36.298.600
37.404.300
38.481.300
39.530.750
40.553.650
41.551.025
42.523.800
43.475.600
44.401.900
45.306.150
46.189.175
47.051.675

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

7,23%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 73 of 147

12

DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING

12.1 AVAILABLE DATA


The following historical data are needed for a domestic long term forecasting:

O/D annual data for the last 15 years.

The data analysis has obtained the following series:

Annual data from 1981 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo
Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
Daily domestic traffic airport destination/origin 2011
Domestic airports traffic annual data, from 2003 to 2009

12.2 DOM. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

The long term international traffic evolution has been considerate that will be in
accordance to the domestic vs. international traffic historical relationship in the last
past 30 years. This PAXDOM/PAXINT rate has been obtain from 1981 to 2011and
statistically predicted for the long term forecast. It has been observed that this rate
varies between 35 % and 60%, except from 1999 to 2005. During these
exceptional years, this rate grows to around 80%. The forecasting result is that this
rate is approximately 56 % for the next close years.

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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DOMESTIC PASSENGER OVER INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER RATE


FORECAST

100%
90%
80%
70%
Rate

60%
50%
% Domestic
passenger /
International
Passenger

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Departing from this initial data, LTD, Long Term Domestic Passenger forecasts
have been developed, and the same technique as for the international movement
and cargo forecasting has been followed for the domestic movement and cargo
prediction.

Domestic passengers historical evolution:

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 75 of 147

DOMESTIC PAX EVOLUTION


1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000

Pax

1000000
DEPARTURES

800000

ARRIVALS
TOTAL

600000
400000
200000
0
1975

1980

1985

1990

1995
2000
Year

2005

2010

2015

12.3 LTD RESULTS

For a complete future vision of the Nepal air traffic demand, a several situation
exercise have been done also in the domestic area, in order to study the different
factors influence in the future air traffic demand.
For this purpose, the international pessimistic and optimistic scenario are the
source data, and from these data, the mentioned paxdom/paxint rate conversion
has been done for each scenario.

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 76 of 147

12.3.1 PESSIMISTIC

12.3.1.1

Passengers

DOMESTIC PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

6.000.000
5.000.000

Pax

4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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LTD PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Pessimistic
Growing
Passengers
Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
1.036.586
1.377.868
1.542.393
1.645.763
1.948.000
2.120.600
2.259.600
2.282.000
2.420.000
2.555.000
2.680.000
2.792.000
2.895.000
2.990.000
3.078.000
3.162.000
3.245.000
3.328.000
3.415.000
3.508.000
3.610.000
3.725.000
3.857.000
4.010.000
4.187.000
4.394.000
4.634.000
4.914.000
4,66%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 78 of 147

12.3.1.2

Aircraft Movements

The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.
With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it.

DOMESTIC PASSENGER OCCUPATION RATE


25
20

Pax

15
Domestic
Passenger
Occupation
Rate

10
5
0
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

This occupation rate has been varying irregularly from 8 to 21 passengers from
1981 to 2011, growing slowly. An statistical estimation has been considered, 20,95
passengers per aircraft.

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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DOMESTIC PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM


FORECAST

250.000

200.000

Pax

150.000

100.000

50.000

0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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LTD PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Pessimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
69.286
76.191
79.892
81.594
95.825
102.100
106.825
108.925
115.525
121.975
127.900
133.275
138.175
142.700
146.925
150.950
154.875
158.850
162.975
167.425
172.325
177.825
184.125
191.400
199.875
209.725
221.200
234.575
4,50%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 81 of 147

12.3.1.3

Cargo

The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.
With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it
trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate has been
very irregular:

From 1981 to 1994, the cargo occupation data reflects an insignificant ratio
per aircraft.
From 1994 to nowadays, an irregular rate is observed, varying from 11 to
69.

DOMESTIC AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT


80
70

Cargo ( Kgs)

60
50
40
Domestic
Average
Cargo
Occupation
over Aircraft

30
20
10
0
-10
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

With all techniques the most coherent rate estimation for the future occupation rate
is 54,27 kgs. aprox. per domestic movement.

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 82 of 147

DOMESTIC PESSIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

14.000.000
12.000.000
10.000.000

Pax

8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 83 of 147

LTD PESSIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Pessimistic
Cargo Forecast
4.803.533
4.384.475
3.731.083
4.400.231
5.221.400
5.552.450
5.807.500
5.911.925
6.269.550
6.619.500
6.941.175
7.233.050
7.499.275
7.744.350
7.973.325
8.191.675
8.405.350
8.620.875
8.845.250
9.086.100
9.351.625
9.650.600
9.992.600
10.387.750
10.846.950
11.381.925
12.005.125
12.729.850

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

4,53%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 84 of 147

12.3.2 OPTIMISTIC
12.3.2.1

Passengers

DOMESTIC OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

9.000.000
8.000.000
7.000.000

Pax

6.000.000
5.000.000
4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 85 of 147

LTD OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Optimistic
Growing
Passengers
Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
1.036.586
1.377.868
1.542.393
1.645.763
1.948.000
2.120.600
2.259.600
2.407.000
2.704.000
3.047.000
3.409.000
3.766.000
4.119.000
4.464.000
4.801.000
5.129.000
5.446.000
5.750.000
6.041.000
6.316.000
6.574.000
6.813.000
7.031.000
7.226.000
7.397.000
7.540.000
7.654.000
7.736.000
6,66%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 86 of 147

12.3.2.2

Aircraft Movements

DOMESTIC OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM


FORECAST

400.000
350.000
300.000

Pax

250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 87 of 147

LTD OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Optimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
69.286
76.191
79.892
81.594
95.825
102.100
106.825
114.900
129.075
145.425
162.700
179.775
196.600
213.075
229.175
244.800
259.925
274.475
288.350
301.475
313.800
325.200
335.600
344.925
353.050
359.900
365.325
369.250
6,49%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 88 of 147

12.3.2.3

Cargo

DOMESTIC OPTIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

25.000.000
20.000.000

Pax

15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 89 of 147

LTD OPTIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Optimistic
Cargo Forecast
4.803.533
4.384.475
3.731.083
4.400.231
5.221.400
5.552.450
5.807.500
6.235.500
7.004.350
7.891.850
8.830.150
9.756.850
10.669.000
11.563.400
12.436.775
13.285.675
14.106.450
14.895.325
15.648.250
16.361.025
17.029.275
17.648.275
18.213.250
18.719.075
19.160.300
19.531.400
19.826.400
20.039.125

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

6,52%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 90 of 147

12.3.3 PROBABLE

12.3.3.1

Passengers

Departing from international data, the most probable Domestic passengers Long
Term Forecast has been done considering the mentioned method.

DOMESTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

7.000.000
6.000.000

Pax

5.000.000
4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 91 of 147

LTD PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Years

LTD Passengers
Forecast

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

1.036.586
1.377.868
1.542.393
1.645.763
1.948.000
2.120.600
2.259.600
2.323.000
2.493.000
2.663.000
2.834.000
3.004.000
3.175.000
3.345.000
3.515.000
3.686.000
3.856.000
4.026.000
4.197.000
4.367.000
4.537.000
4.708.000
4.878.000
5.048.000
5.219.000
5.389.000
5.559.000
5.730.000

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

5,34%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 92 of 147

12.3.3.2

Aircraft Movements

Domestic Aircraft Movement Long Term Forecast

300.000
250.000

Pax

200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 93 of 147

LTD AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Aircraft
Growing
Movements
Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
69.286
76.191
79.892
81.594
95.825
102.100
106.825
110.875
119.000
127.125
135.275
143.400
151.525
159.650
167.800
175.925
184.050
192.175
200.325
208.450
216.575
224.700
232.850
240.975
249.100
257.225
265.375
273.500
5,17%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 94 of 147

12.3.3.3

Cargo

DOMESTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

16.000.000
14.000.000
12.000.000

Pax

10.000.000
8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 95 of 147

LTD CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035

LTD Cargo
Forecast
4.803.533
4.384.475
3.731.083
4.400.231
5.221.400
5.552.450
5.807.500
6.017.100
6.458.375
6.899.650
7.340.925
7.782.200
8.223.475
8.664.750
9.106.025
9.547.300
9.988.575
10.429.850
10.871.100
11.312.375
11.753.650
12.194.925
12.636.200
13.077.475
13.518.750
13.960.025
14.401.300
14.842.575

Growing
Media Rate
2011-2035

5,20%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 96 of 147

13

REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTING

13.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data would be ideal for a domestic regional airport long
term forecasting:

O/D annual data for the last 15 years.

In this case, the following complete data has been obtained from different archives
and sources. The obtained data, depending on the source, differs in some years,
so the exposed tables have been completed following the most logical criteria.

Global data from 1981 to 2011, passenger, aircraft movement and cargo
traffic. Different colours have been employed depending on the information
source:
In black: Paper Documents, CAAN annual reports:
o Civil Aviation Report 2009-2010
o Civil Aviation Report 2008
In green: Source: Consultant through different sources.

From this departing data, the following airports have been studied:
ICAO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

IATA NEPAL

VNNG KEP

NAME

NG

Nepalgunj Airport

BR/VT

Biratnagar Airport

VNPK PKR

PK

Pokhara Airport

VNLK

LUA

LK

Lukla Airport

VNSK SKH

SK

Surkhet Airport

VNDH

DHI

DH

Dhangarhi Airport

VNSI

SIF

SI

Simara Airport

BW

Bhairahawa Airport

VNVT

BIR

VNBW BWA
JKR

JP

Janakpur Airport

VNBP BHR

VNJP

BP

VNCG BDP

BDP

Bharatpur Airport
Bhadrapur Airport (chandragadhi
Airport)

VNJL

JUM

JUM

Jumla Airport

VNJS

JMO

JMO

Jomsom Airport

VNST

IMK

IMK

Simikot Airport

CITY
Nepalgunj
Biratnagar
Pokhara
Lukla
Surkhet
Dhangarhi
Simara
Bhairahawa
Janakpur
Bharatpur
Bhadrapur / Chandragadhi
Jumla
Jomsom
Simikot

REGIONAL AIRPORT HISTORICAL AIR TRAFFIC EVOLUTION

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 97 of 147

Nepalgunj Airport
AIRCRAFT
NG MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
85000
1.999
99215
2.000
11606
95257
934000
2.001
11802
115763
1548000
2.002
9980
90223
1400000
2.003
12609
102744
1433531
2.004
11710
106654
2307469
2.005
13032
132354
2366761
2.006
13597
113480
3415495
2.007
10088
102722
1849399
2.008
9717
116795
1303791
2.009
9568
140045
1380912
2.010
8472
143456
856869
2.011
8152
142869

Biratnagar Airport
AIRCRAFT
BR/VT MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS
1.998
171825
1.999
171066
2.000
9689
173658
2.001
10198
188517
2.002
9472
156807
2.003
9582
142270
2.004
11494
176839
2.005
12059
324338
2.006
9859
202631
2.007
11323
207657
2.008
12282
266267
2.009
15382
408576
2.010
364949
2.011
372045

CARGO
354000
434000
456000
382000
215000
204079
281622
389083
276533
468619
773049
1192266

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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Pokhara Airport
AIRCRAFT
PK MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
207874
298000
1.999
245575
1639000
2.000
22775
277704
1236000
2.001
21511
275383
1049000
2.002
16216
192374
656000
2.003
19887
214783
465252
2.004
13603
214645
227645
2.005
14287
209155
430580
2.006
12710
198265
365871
2.007
13155
211751
378443
2.008
19708
234230
170506
2.009
21513
301475
255323
2.010
25585
360610
227268
2.011
20183
370493
160108

Lukla airport

LK
1.998
1.999
2.000
2.001
2.002
2.003
2.004
2.005
2.006
2.007
2.008
2.009
2.010
2.011

AIRCRAFT
MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS
40020
59628
67969
45453
50360
8616
57845
7892
71422
7377
53943
8800
61992
10969
80733
12219
100082
12300
88881
92011
93292

CARGO

1203000
1672606
1271297
1771811
2445792
2739491
2592159

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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Surkhet Airport

SK
1.998
1.999
2.000
2.001
2.002
2.003
2.004
2.005
2.006
2.007
2.008
2.009
2.010
2.011

AIRCRAFT
MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS
10000
10640
10978
7392
5594
5594
8500
25576
4988
13671
6044
14634
8054
21582
8642
22278
12049
19367
19456
3700

CARGO

6075750
3987270
6638196
7157670
6806044
13341692

Dhangarhi Airport
AIRCRAFT
DH MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
6356
1.999
4616
2.000
3260
2.001
2104
2.002
3500
2.003
8481
2.004
8608
2.005
1638
13298
9776
2.006
1047
10123
12191
2.007
1480
14087
32728
2.008
1711
18897
5886
2.009
1176
39826
5886
2.010
34991
2.011
37726
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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 100 of 147

Simara Airport
AIRCRAFT
SI MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
14412
1.999
44584
2.000
50173
2.001
48442
2.002
73463
2.003
4954
69563
161580
2.004
5610
89413
41940
2.005
6335
110109
49981
2.006
5108
82933
60800
2.007
3671
59638
26544
2.008
4296
66136
33065
2.009
4068
83012
0
2.010
82431
2.011
70745
Bhairahawa Airport

BW OPERATIONS PASSENGERS CARGO


1.998
47875
1.999
42519
2.000
4096
75824
0
2.001
5296
80628
57000
2.002
4804
74774
93000
2.003
4740
68879
53191
2.004
5303
78859
74957
2.005
5202
128258
76183
2.006
4042
66499
44905
2.007
3755
52495
55135
2.008
3761
67705
51809
2.009
3962
87727
73114
2.010
84349
2.011
119508

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

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Janakpur Airport

JP
1.998
1.999
2.000
2.001
2.002
2.003
2.004
2.005
2.006
2.007
2.008
2.009
2.010
2.011

AIRCRAFT
MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
10762
17659
14962
24234
28258
2351
36115
10430
2935
49381
32079
3607
53497
33543
3226
50909
39687
2958
46363
58084
952
32475
8348
3320
55899
58257
66505
62113

Bharatpur Airport
AIRCRAFT
BP MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
18304
1.999
20496
2.000
26673
2.001
22416
2.002
15332
2.003
1776
20208
2.004
3080
39060
2.005
3098
42901
8849
2.006
2896
26179
5232
2.007
3489
21645
4305
2.008
2908
23791
1867
2.009
4064
41506
0
2.010
45131
2.011
51126
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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 102 of 147

Bhadrapur Airport (chandragadhi Airport)


AIRCRAFT
BDP MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
10027
1.999
13320
2.000
42234
2.001
42667
2.002
49533
2.003
47741
2.004
62304
2.005
54292
2.006
57767
2.007
80182
2.008
60400
2.009
135466
2.010
154687
2.011
2648
154882

Jumla Airport
AIRCRAFT
JUM MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
10309
1.999
13680
2.000
8969
2.001
7000
2.002
9796
2.003
9796
2.004
24014
2.005
25055
2.006
24156
2.007
28744
2.008
32040
2.009
40268
2.010
33350
2.011
10
27651
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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 103 of 147

Jomsom Airport
AIRCRAFT
JMO MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
34440
1.999
19174
2.000
24755
2.001
25682
2.002
17029
2.003
42561
2.004
39826
2.005
31976
2.006
33749
2.007
42477
2.008
60699
2.009
24014
2.010
70834
2.011
89
65527

Simikot Airport
AIRCRAFT
IMK MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998
7187
1.999
7756
2.000
6500
2.001
5500
2.002
5000
2.003
4909
2.004
8532
2.005
7461
2.006
9579
2.007
11365
2.008
13533
2.009
13055
2.010
16121
2.011
4
17732
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 104 of 147

13.2 REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HYPHOTESIS AND USED


MODEL
Since the available data is limited, some hyphotesis have been done for the
regional airport air traffic demand forecasting.
According to ICAO forecasting manual, in cases that detailed data from the
airports system is not available, each airport quote over the total traffic of the
system can be considered
So, from the detailed available data, each airport domestic traffic percentage over
the total TIA domestic traffic have been calculated each year.
Notice that almost the total domestic traffic in Nepal is TIA traffic, with arrival or
departure in Tribhuvan. Air traffic between secondary airports is not significant for
planning studies.
Different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over this percentage:
Trend lines (lineal, potential and logarithmic), as well as different ARIMAS trough
SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate variation trends to
a constant, so the media of the available data has been observed for future
occupation rate.
.Selecting this percentage for each airport, its forecast has been calculated
relating this percentage with the domestic TIA long term forecast.

14 Principal Airports Traffic: Selected 14 airports data sum


Others: Difference between TIA total domestic traffic data and
14
principal airports

Passengers: This item, in case its negative, as happens in


passenger table, could mean that Others are passengers
from TIA to these 14 airports, and some of them continuing in
transit to other regional airports (not 14 principal ones).
Aircraft Movements: This item, in case its positive, as
happens in aircraft movements table, could include the traffic
from these 14 airports to other regional airports.
Cargo: This item, in case its positive, as happens in cargo
table, could include the traffic from these 14 airports to other
regional
airports.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 105 of 147

REGIONAL AIRPORTS PASSENGERS HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

YEAR

Pax

NG

BR/VT

PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

BP

BDP

JUM

JMO

IMK

14
Principal
Airports
Traffic
Others

1.998

670.076

85.000 171.825 207.874

40.020 10.000

6356

14412

47875

10762

18304

10027 10309 34440

7187

1.999

893.328

99.215 171.066 245.575

59.628 10.640

4616

44584

42519

17659

20496

13320 13680 19174

7756

4315
769928 123400

2.000

853.006

95.257 173.658 277.704

67.969 10.978

3260

50173

75824

14962

26673

42234

8969 24755

6500

878916

25910

2.001

871.818 115.763 188.517 275.383

45.453

7.392

2104

48442

80628

24234

22416

42667

7000 25682

5500

891181

19363

2.002

748.391

90.223 156.807 192.374

50.360

5.594

3500

73463

74774

28258

15332

49533

9796 17029

5000

772043

23652

2.003

747.981 102.744 142.270 214.783

57.845

5.594

8481

69563

68879

36115

20208

47741

9796 42561

4909

831489

83508

2.004

876.190 106.654 176.839 214.645

71.422 25.576

8608

89413

78859

49381

39060

62304 24014 39826

8532

995133 118943

53.943 13.671 13298 110109 128258

53497

42901

54292 25055 31976

7461 1200308

89385

2.005 1.110.923 132.354 324.338 209.155

674391

2.006

882.662 113.480 202.631 198.265

61.992 14.634 10123

82933

66499

50909

26179

57767 24156 33749

9579

952896

70234

2.007

916.429 102.722 207.657 211.751

80.733 21.582 14087

59638

52495

46363

21645

80182 28744 42477 11365

981441

65012

2.008 1.036.586 116.795 266.267 234.230 100.082 22.278 18897

66136

67705

32475

23791

60400 32040 60699 13533 1115328

78742

2.009 1.377.868 140.045 408.576 301.475

88.881 19.367 39826

83012

87727

55899

41506 135466 40268 24014 13055 1479117 101249

2.010 1.542.393 143.456 364.949 360.610

92.011 19.456 34991

82431

84349

66505

45131 154687 33350 70834 16121 1568881

26488

2.011 1.631.213 142.869 372.045 370.493

93.292

70745 119508

62113

51126 154882 27651 65527 17732 1589409

-41804

3.700 37726

Source: CAAN

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Page 106 of 147

REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

YEAR

Aircraft NG

BR/VT PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

BP

14
Principal
Airports
JUM JMO IMK Traffic

BDP

Others

1.998 34.468

0 -34468

1.999 55.784

0 -55784

9.689 22.775

4096

48166

-7832

2.001 55.165 11.802 10.198 21.511

5296

48807

-6358

2.002 47.941

2.000 55.998 11.606

9.980

9.472 16.216

4804

40472

-7469

2.003 53.140 12.609

9.582 19.887

8.616

4954

4740

2351

1776

64515

11375

2.004 66.471 11.710 11.494 13.603

7.892

8.500

5610

5303

2935

3080

70127

3656

2.005 68.704 13.032 12.059 14.287

7.377

4.988 1638

6335

5202

3607

3098

71623

2919

2.006 61.279 13.597

8.800

6.044 1047

5108

4042

3226

2896

67329

6050

2.007 65.443 10.088 11.323 13.155 10.969

8.054 1480

3671

3755

2958

3489

68942

3499

2.008 69.286

9.717 12.282 19.708 12.219

8.642 1711

4296

3761

952

2908

76196

6910

2.009 76.191

9.568 15.382 21.513 12.300 12.049 1176

4068

3962

3320

4064

87402

11211

2.010 79.892

8.472

0 25.585

34057 -45835

2.011 81.594

8.152

0 20.183

2648

10

89

31086 -50508

9.859 12.710

Source: CAAN

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 107 of 147

REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

AO

Cargo

NG

BR/VT

PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

14
Principal
Airports
BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic

BP

Others

1.998 1.012.681

354.000

298.000

652000

-360681

622.441

434.000 1.639.000

2073000

1450559

2.000 2.289.000

934.000

456.000 1.236.000

2626000

337000

2.001 1.912.000 1.548.000

382.000 1.049.000

0 57000

3036000

1124000

2.002 2.713.000 1.400.000

215.000

0 93000

2364000

-349000

2.003 3.122.000 1.433.531

204.079

8.481 1.203.000

0 161580 53191 10430

3074292

-47708

2.004 2.317.000 2.307.469

281.622

8.608 1.672.606

6.075.750

0 10495031

8178031

2.005 2.974.000 2.366.761

389.083

13.298 1.271.297

3.987.270

9776

49981 76183 33543 8849

8206041

5232041

2.006 3.303.097 3.415.495

276.533

10.123 1.771.811

6.638.196 12191

60800 44905 39687 5232

0 12274973

8971876

2.007 3.923.923 1.849.399

468.619

24.087 2.445.792

7.157.670 32728

26544 55135 58084 4305

0 12122363

8198440

2.008 4.803.533 1.303.791

773.049

37.953 2.739.491

6.806.044

5886

33065 51809

0 11761303

6957770

39.826 2.592.159 13.341.692

5886

1.999

2.009 4.384.475 1.380.912 1.192.266

656.000

41940 74957 32079

8348 1867

0 73114 58257

0 18684112 14299637
0

856869 -2874214

0 -4400231

2.010 3.731.083

856.869

2.011 4.400.231

Source: CAAN

Following, each regional airport traffic percentage and future media:

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Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 108 of 147

REGIONAL AIRPORT PASSENGERS PERCENTAGE AND FUTURE MEDIA

YEAR

Pax

NG

BR/VT

PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

BP

BDP

JUM

JMO

14
Principal
Airports
Traffic
Others

IMK

1.998

670.076 12,69% 25,64% 31,02% 5,97% 1,49% 0,95%

2,15%

7,14% 1,61% 2,73%

1,50% 1,54% 5,14% 1,07% 100,64%

1.999

893.328 11,11% 19,15% 27,49% 6,67% 1,19% 0,52%

4,99%

4,76% 1,98% 2,29%

1,49% 1,53% 2,15% 0,87%

2.000

853.006 11,17% 20,36% 32,56% 7,97% 1,29% 0,38%

5,88%

8,89% 1,75% 3,13%

4,95% 1,05% 2,90% 0,76% 103,04%

3,04%

2.001

871.818 13,28% 21,62% 31,59% 5,21% 0,85% 0,24%

5,56%

9,25% 2,78% 2,57%

4,89% 0,80% 2,95% 0,63% 102,22%

2,22%

2.002

748.391 12,06% 20,95% 25,71% 6,73% 0,75% 0,47%

9,82%

9,99% 3,78% 2,05%

6,62% 1,31% 2,28% 0,67% 103,16%

3,16%

2.003

747.981 13,74% 19,02% 28,72% 7,73% 0,75% 1,13%

9,30%

9,21% 4,83% 2,70%

6,38% 1,31% 5,69% 0,66% 111,16% 11,16%

2.004

876.190 12,17% 20,18% 24,50% 8,15% 2,92% 0,98% 10,20%

9,00% 5,64% 4,46%

7,11% 2,74% 4,55% 0,97% 113,58% 13,58%

2.005 1.110.923 11,91% 29,20% 18,83% 4,86% 1,23% 1,20%

0,64%

86,19% -13,81%

9,91% 11,55% 4,82% 3,86%

4,89% 2,26% 2,88% 0,67% 108,05%

8,05%

2.006

882.662 12,86% 22,96% 22,46% 7,02% 1,66% 1,15%

9,40%

7,53% 5,77% 2,97%

6,54% 2,74% 3,82% 1,09% 107,96%

7,96%

2.007

916.429 11,21% 22,66% 23,11% 8,81% 2,36% 1,54%

6,51%

5,73% 5,06% 2,36%

8,75% 3,14% 4,64% 1,24% 107,09%

7,09%

2.008 1.036.586 11,27% 25,69% 22,60% 9,65% 2,15% 1,82%

6,38%

6,53% 3,13% 2,30%

5,83% 3,09% 5,86% 1,31% 107,60%

7,60%

2.009 1.377.868 10,16% 29,65% 21,88% 6,45% 1,41% 2,89%

6,02%

6,37% 4,06% 3,01%

9,83% 2,92% 1,74% 0,95% 107,35%

7,35%

2.010 1.542.393

9,30% 23,66% 23,38% 5,97% 1,26% 2,27%

5,34%

5,47% 4,31% 2,93% 10,03% 2,16% 4,59% 1,05% 101,72%

1,72%

2.011 1.631.213

8,76% 22,81% 22,71% 5,72% 0,23% 2,31%

4,34%

7,33% 3,81% 3,13%

9,49% 1,70% 4,02% 1,09%

97,44%

-2,56%

2.012 1.948.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 104,08%

4,08%

2.013 2.120.600 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.014 2.259.600 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

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2.015 2.323.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.016 2.493.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.017 2.663.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.018 2.834.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.019 3.004.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.020 3.175.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.021 3.345.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.022 3.515.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.023 3.686.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.024 3.856.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.025 4.026.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.026 4.197.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.027 4.367.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.028 4.537.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.029 4.708.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.030 4.878.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.031 5.048.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.032 5.219.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.033 5.389.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.034 5.559.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

2.035 5.730.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27%

6,84%

7,77% 3,81% 2,89%

6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93%

91,65%

-8,35%

Notice that the percentage of the domestic traffic arriving or departing from TIA is practically the total.

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Page 110 of 147

REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS PERCENTAGE AND MEDIA

YEAR

Aircraft

NG

BR/VT

PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

BP

BDP

JUM

JMO

IMK

14
Principal
Airports
Traffic
Others

1.998
1.999
2.000
2.001
2.002
2.003
2.004
2.005
2.006
2.007
2.008
2.009
2.010
2.011

34.468
55.784
55.998
55.165
47.941
53.140
66.471
68.704
61.279
65.443
69.286
76.191
79.892
81.594

0,00%
0,00%
20,73%
21,39%
20,82%
23,73%
17,62%
18,97%
22,19%
15,41%
14,02%
12,56%
10,60%
9,99%

0,00%
0,00%
17,30%
18,49%
19,76%
18,03%
17,29%
17,55%
16,09%
17,30%
17,73%
20,19%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
40,67%
38,99%
33,82%
37,42%
20,46%
20,80%
20,74%
20,10%
28,44%
28,24%
32,02%
24,74%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
16,21%
11,87%
10,74%
14,36%
16,76%
17,64%
16,14%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
12,79%
7,26%
9,86%
12,31%
12,47%
15,81%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
2,38%
1,71%
2,26%
2,47%
1,54%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%


0,00% -100,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0,00% -100,00%
0,00% 7,31% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 86,01% -13,99%
0,00% 9,60% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 88,47% -11,53%
0,00% 10,02% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 84,42% -15,58%
9,32% 8,92% 4,42% 3,34% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 121,41%
21,41%
8,44% 7,98% 4,42% 4,63% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 105,50%
5,50%
9,22% 7,57% 5,25% 4,51% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 104,25%
4,25%
8,34% 6,60% 5,26% 4,73% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 109,87%
9,87%
5,61% 5,74% 4,52% 5,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 105,35%
5,35%
6,20% 5,43% 1,37% 4,20% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 109,97%
9,97%
5,34% 5,20% 4,36% 5,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 114,71%
14,71%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 42,63% -57,37%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 38,10% -61,90%

2.012
2.013
2.014
2.015
2.016
2.017
2.018

95.825
102.100
106.825
110.875
119.000
127.125
135.275

17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%

17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%

28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%

14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%

11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%

2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%

7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%

4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%

4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%

3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%

0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%

0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%

Page 111 of 147

19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%

2.019
2.020
2.021
2.022
2.023
2.024
2.025
2.026
2.027
2.028
2.029
2.030
2.031
2.032
2.033
2.034
2.035

143.400
151.525
159.650
167.800
175.925
184.050
192.175
200.325
208.450
216.575
224.700
232.850
240.975
249.100
257.225
265.375
273.500

17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%
17,34%

17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%
17,97%

28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%
28,87%

14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%
14,82%

11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%
11,75%

2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%
2,07%

7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%
7,50%

7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%
7,44%

4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%
4,23%

4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%
4,58%

3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%
3,25%

0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%
0,01%

0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%
0,11%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%
119,94%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 112 of 147

19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%
19,94%

REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO PERCENTAGE AND MEDIA

AO

Cargo

NG

BR/VT

PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

BP

BDP

JUM

JMO

IMK

14
Principal
Airports
Traffic
Others

1.998
1.999
2.000
2.001
2.002
2.003
2.004
2.005
2.006
2.007
2.008
2.009
2.010
2.011

1.012.681
0,00% 34,96% 29,43% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
622.441
0,00% 69,73% 263,32% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2.289.000 40,80% 19,92% 54,00% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
1.912.000 80,96% 19,98% 54,86% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 2,98% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2.713.000 51,60% 7,92% 24,18% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 3,43% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
3.122.000 45,92% 6,54%
0,27% 38,53%
0,00% 0,00% 5,18% 1,70% 0,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2.317.000 99,59% 12,15%
0,37% 72,19% 262,22% 0,00% 1,81% 3,24% 1,38% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
2.974.000 79,58% 13,08%
0,45% 42,75% 134,07% 0,33% 1,68% 2,56% 1,13% 0,30% 0,00% 0,00%
3.303.097 103,40% 8,37%
0,31% 53,64% 200,97% 0,37% 1,84% 1,36% 1,20% 0,16% 0,00% 0,00%
3.923.923 47,13% 11,94%
0,61% 62,33% 182,41% 0,83% 0,68% 1,41% 1,48% 0,11% 0,00% 0,00%
4.803.533 27,14% 16,09%
0,79% 57,03% 141,69% 0,12% 0,69% 1,08% 0,17% 0,04% 0,00% 0,00%
4.384.475 31,50% 27,19%
0,91% 59,12% 304,29% 0,13% 0,00% 1,67% 1,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
3.731.083 22,97% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
4.400.231
0,00% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00%
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

64,38%
333,04%
114,72%
158,79%
87,14%
98,47%
452,96%
275,93%
371,62%
308,93%
244,85%
426,14%
22,97%
0,00%

-35,62%
233,04%
14,72%
58,79%
-12,86%
-1,53%
352,96%
175,93%
271,62%
208,93%
144,85%
326,14%
-77,03%
-100,00%

2.012
2.013
2.014
2.015
2.016
2.017
2.018
2.019
2.020

5.221.400
5.552.450
5.807.500
6.017.100
6.458.375
6.899.650
7.340.925
7.782.200
8.223.475

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

378,79%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%

278,79%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%

57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%

20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%

35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%

204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%

0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%

1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%

2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%

1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%

0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

Page 113 of 147

2.021
2.022
2.023
2.024
2.025
2.026
2.027
2.028
2.029
2.030
2.031
2.032
2.033
2.034
2.035

8.664.750
9.106.025
9.547.300
9.988.575
10.429.850
10.871.100
11.312.375
11.753.650
12.194.925
12.636.200
13.077.475
13.518.750
13.960.025
14.401.300
14.842.575

57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%
57,33%

20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%
20,66%

35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%
35,79%

55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%
55,08%

204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%
204,28%

0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%
0,36%

1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%
1,98%

2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%
2,16%

1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%
1,00%

0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%
0,15%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%

336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%
336,02%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 114 of 147

236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%
236,02%

13.2.1 Passengers
Following the described method, the regional airports forecast results:

REGIONAL AIRPORTS PASSENGERS FORECAST

YEAR

2.012
2.013
2.014
2.015
2.016
2.017
2.018
2.019
2.020
2.021
2.022
2.023
2.024
2.025
2.026
2.027
2.028
2.029
2.030
2.031
2.032
2.033
2.034
2.035

Pax
1.948.000
2.120.600
2.259.600
2.323.000
2.493.000
2.663.000
2.834.000
3.004.000
3.175.000
3.345.000
3.515.000
3.686.000
3.856.000
4.026.000
4.197.000
4.367.000
4.537.000
4.708.000
4.878.000
5.048.000
5.219.000
5.389.000
5.559.000
5.730.000

NG
224.954
244.885
260.937
268.258
287.890
307.521
327.268
346.900
366.647
386.278
405.910
425.657
445.288
464.920
484.667
504.298
523.930
543.677
563.308
582.940
602.687
622.318
641.949
661.696

BR/VT
450.196
490.086
522.209
536.862
576.150
615.438
654.957
694.245
733.765
773.053
812.341
851.860
891.149
930.437
969.956
1.009.244
1.048.533
1.088.052
1.127.340
1.166.628
1.206.148
1.245.436
1.284.724
1.324.243

PK
496.096
540.052
575.451
591.597
634.891
678.185
721.733
765.027
808.575
851.869
895.163
938.712
982.005
1.025.299
1.068.848
1.112.141
1.155.435
1.198.984
1.242.278
1.285.571
1.329.120
1.372.414
1.415.707
1.459.256

LK
134.860
146.809
156.432
160.821
172.590
184.359
196.197
207.966
219.805
231.574
243.343
255.181
266.950
278.719
290.558
302.327
314.096
325.934
337.703
349.472
361.311
373.080
384.849
396.687

SK
27.160
29.566
31.504
32.388
34.758
37.128
39.512
41.883
44.267
46.637
49.007
51.391
53.761
56.132
58.516
60.886
63.256
65.640
68.010
70.381
72.765
75.135
77.505
79.889

DH
24.835
27.036
28.808
29.616
31.783
33.951
36.131
38.298
40.478
42.645
44.813
46.993
49.160
51.327
53.507
55.675
57.842
60.022
62.190
64.357
66.537
68.704
70.872
73.052

SI
133.302
145.113
154.624
158.963
170.596
182.229
193.931
205.564
217.265
228.898
240.531
252.233
263.866
275.499
287.201
298.834
310.467
322.168
333.801
345.435
357.136
368.769
380.402
392.104

BW
151.307
164.714
175.510
180.435
193.639
206.844
220.126
233.330
246.613
259.817
273.021
286.304
299.508
312.712
325.995
339.199
352.404
365.686
378.890
392.095
405.377
418.581
431.786
445.068

JP
74.175
80.747
86.040
88.454
94.927
101.400
107.911
114.384
120.896
127.369
133.842
140.353
146.826
153.300
159.811
166.284
172.757
179.268
185.741
192.215
198.726
205.199
211.672
218.183

BP
56.338
61.330
65.350
67.184
72.100
77.017
81.963
86.879
91.825
96.741
101.658
106.603
111.520
116.437
121.382
126.299
131.215
136.161
141.077
145.994
150.940
155.856
160.773
165.718

BDP
122.874
133.762
142.529
146.528
157.252
167.975
178.761
189.484
200.270
210.993
221.717
232.503
243.226
253.949
264.735
275.458
286.181
296.968
307.691
318.414
329.200
339.923
350.646
361.433

JUM
39.354
42.840
45.649
46.929
50.364
53.798
57.253
60.687
64.141
67.576
71.010
74.465
77.899
81.333
84.788
88.222
91.657
95.111
98.546
101.980
105.434
108.869
112.303
115.758

JMO
74.010
80.567
85.848
88.257
94.716
101.175
107.671
114.130
120.627
127.086
133.544
140.041
146.500
152.959
159.456
165.914
172.373
178.870
185.329
191.787
198.284
204.743
211.202
217.698

IMK
18.108
19.713
21.005
21.594
23.174
24.755
26.344
27.924
29.514
31.094
32.675
34.264
35.844
37.425
39.014
40.595
42.175
43.764
45.345
46.925
48.515
50.095
51.675
53.265

14
Principal
Airports
2.027.569
1.943.496
2.070.887
2.128.992
2.284.794
2.440.596
2.597.315
2.753.117
2.909.836
3.065.638
3.221.441
3.378.159
3.533.962
3.689.764
3.846.483
4.002.285
4.158.087
4.314.806
4.470.608
4.626.410
4.783.129
4.938.931
5.094.734
5.251.452

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 115 of 147

Others
79.569
-177.104
-188.713
-194.008
-208.206
-222.404
-236.685
-250.883
-265.164
-279.362
-293.559
-307.841
-322.038
-336.236
-350.517
-364.715
-378.913
-393.194
-407.392
-421.590
-435.871
-450.069
-464.266
-478.548

Graphic illustration:
REGIONAL AIRPORTS PASSENGERS FORECAST
1.600.000
NG

1.400.000

BR/
VT
PK

1.200.000

LK

1.000.000
Pax

SK
800.000

DH
SI

600.000

BW
400.000

JP
BP

200.000
0
1.995

2.000

2.005

2.010

2.015
Year

2.020

2.025

2.030

2.035

2.040

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 116 of 147

13.2.2 Aircraft Movements


Following the described method, the regional airports forecast results:
REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST

YEAR

2.012
2.013
2.014
2.015
2.016
2.017
2.018
2.019
2.020
2.021
2.022
2.023
2.024
2.025
2.026
2.027
2.028
2.029
2.030
2.031
2.032
2.033
2.034
2.035

Aircraft
95.825
102.100
106.825
110.875
119.000
127.125
135.275
143.400
151.525
159.650
167.800
175.925
184.050
192.175
200.325
208.450
216.575
224.700
232.850
240.975
249.100
257.225
265.375
273.500

NG
16.612
17.700
18.519
19.221
20.630
22.038
23.451
24.860
26.268
27.677
29.090
30.498
31.907
33.315
34.728
36.137
37.545
38.954
40.367
41.775
43.184
44.592
46.005
47.414

BR/VT
17.222
18.350
19.199
19.927
21.388
22.848
24.313
25.773
27.233
28.694
30.158
31.619
33.079
34.539
36.004
37.464
38.925
40.385
41.850
43.310
44.770
46.231
47.695
49.156

PK
27.666
29.478
30.842
32.011
34.357
36.703
39.056
41.402
43.747
46.093
48.446
50.792
53.138
55.484
57.837
60.182
62.528
64.874
67.227
69.573
71.919
74.264
76.617
78.963

LK
14.199
15.129
15.829
16.429
17.633
18.837
20.045
21.249
22.453
23.657
24.864
26.068
27.272
28.476
29.684
30.888
32.092
33.296
34.503
35.707
36.911
38.115
39.323
40.527

SK
11.260
11.998
12.553
13.029
13.983
14.938
15.896
16.851
17.805
18.760
19.718
20.673
21.627
22.582
23.540
24.495
25.449
26.404
27.362
28.316
29.271
30.226
31.184
32.138

DH
1.987
2.117
2.215
2.299
2.467
2.636
2.805
2.973
3.142
3.310
3.479
3.648
3.816
3.985
4.154
4.322
4.491
4.659
4.828
4.996
5.165
5.333
5.502
5.671

SI
7.182
7.653
8.007
8.311
8.920
9.529
10.139
10.748
11.357
11.966
12.577
13.186
13.795
14.404
15.015
15.624
16.233
16.842
17.453
18.062
18.671
19.280
19.891
20.500

BW
7.126
7.593
7.944
8.245
8.850
9.454
10.060
10.664
11.268
11.873
12.479
13.083
13.687
14.291
14.898
15.502
16.106
16.710
17.316
17.921
18.525
19.129
19.735
20.339

JP
4.053
4.318
4.518
4.689
5.033
5.377
5.721
6.065
6.409
6.752
7.097
7.441
7.784
8.128
8.472
8.816
9.160
9.503
9.848
10.192
10.535
10.879
11.224
11.567

BP
4.391
4.678
4.895
5.080
5.452
5.825
6.198
6.570
6.943
7.315
7.688
8.061
8.433
8.805
9.179
9.551
9.923
10.296
10.669
11.041
11.413
11.786
12.159
12.531

BDP JUM JMO IMK


3.110
12 105
5
3.313
13 111
5
3.467
13 117
5
3.598
14 121
5
3.862
15 130
6
4.126
16 139
6
4.390
17 148
7
4.654
18 156
7
4.917
19 165
7
5.181
20 174
8
5.446
21 183
8
5.709
22 192
9
5.973
23 201
9
6.237
24 210
9
6.501
25 219 10
6.765
26 227 10
7.029
27 236 11
7.292
28 245 11
7.557
29 254 11
7.820
30 263 12
8.084
31 272 12
8.348
32 281 13
8.612
33 289 13
8.876
34 298 13

14
Principal
Airports
114.930
122.456
128.123
132.980
142.725
152.470
162.245
171.990
181.735
191.480
201.254
210.999
220.744
230.489
240.264
250.009
259.754
269.499
279.274
289.018
298.763
308.508
318.283
328.028

Others
95.825
102.100
106.825
110.875
119.000
127.125
135.275
143.400
151.525
159.650
167.800
175.925
184.050
192.175
200.325
208.450
216.575
224.700
232.850
240.975
249.100
257.225
265.375
273.500

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 117 of 147

Graphic Illustration:

REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST


NG

90.000

BR/VT

80.000

PK
70.000

LK

Mov

60.000

SK

50.000

DH

40.000

SI
BW

30.000

JP

20.000

BP
10.000

BDP

0
-10.000
2.000

JUM
JMO
2.005

2.010

2.015

2.020
Year

2.025

2.030

2.035

2.040

IMK

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 118 of 147

13.2.3 Cargo
Following the described method, the regional airports forecast results:
REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO FORECAST

AO

2.012
2.013
2.014
2.015
2.016
2.017
2.018
2.019
2.020
2.021
2.022
2.023
2.024
2.025
2.026
2.027
2.028
2.029
2.030
2.031
2.032
2.033
2.034
2.035

Cargo
5.221.400
5.552.450
5.807.500
6.017.100
6.458.375
6.899.650
7.340.925
7.782.200
8.223.475
8.664.750
9.106.025
9.547.300
9.988.575
10.429.850
10.871.100
11.312.375
11.753.650
12.194.925
12.636.200
13.077.475
13.518.750
13.960.025
14.401.300
14.842.575

NG

BR/VT

PK

LK

SK

DH

SI

BW

JP

BP

2.993.261
3.183.042
3.329.254
3.449.411
3.702.379
3.955.348
4.208.317
4.461.286
4.714.255
4.967.223
5.220.192
5.473.161
5.726.130
5.979.099
6.232.053
6.485.022
6.737.991
6.990.960
7.243.928
7.496.897
7.749.866
8.002.835
8.255.804
8.508.773

1.078.578
1.146.962
1.199.648
1.242.945
1.334.098
1.425.252
1.516.405
1.607.559
1.698.713
1.789.866
1.881.020
1.972.173
2.063.327
2.154.481
2.245.629
2.336.783
2.427.936
2.519.090
2.610.244
2.701.397
2.792.551
2.883.704
2.974.858
3.066.012

1.868.806
1.987.293
2.078.578
2.153.597
2.311.535
2.469.473
2.627.411
2.785.349
2.943.287
3.101.225
3.259.163
3.417.101
3.575.038
3.732.976
3.890.905
4.048.843
4.206.781
4.364.719
4.522.657
4.680.595
4.838.533
4.996.471
5.154.409
5.312.347

2.876.184
3.058.541
3.199.034
3.314.491
3.557.565
3.800.640
4.043.714
4.286.788
4.529.862
4.772.937
5.016.011
5.259.085
5.502.159
5.745.234
5.988.294
6.231.368
6.474.443
6.717.517
6.960.591
7.203.666
7.446.740
7.689.814
7.932.888
8.175.963

10.666.084
11.342.341
11.863.348
12.291.511
13.192.931
14.094.352
14.995.772
15.897.192
16.798.613
17.700.033
18.601.454
19.502.874
20.404.294
21.305.715
22.207.084
23.108.504
24.009.925
24.911.345
25.812.765
26.714.186
27.615.606
28.517.026
29.418.447
30.319.867

18.678
19.863
20.775
21.525
23.103
24.682
26.261
27.839
29.418
30.996
32.575
34.153
35.732
37.310
38.889
40.467
42.046
43.625
45.203
46.782
48.360
49.939
51.517
53.096

103.312
109.862
114.909
119.056
127.787
136.518
145.249
153.980
162.712
171.443
180.174
188.905
197.636
206.367
215.098
223.829
232.560
241.292
250.023
258.754
267.485
276.216
284.947
293.679

112.668
119.811
125.315
129.838
139.359
148.881
158.403
167.925
177.447
186.969
196.491
206.013
215.534
225.056
234.578
244.100
253.621
263.143
272.665
282.187
291.709
301.231
310.753
320.275

52.443
55.768
58.330
60.435
64.867
69.299
73.731
78.164
82.596
87.028
91.460
95.892
100.324
104.756
109.188
113.620
118.052
122.484
126.917
131.349
135.781
140.213
144.645
149.077

7.891
8.391
8.777
9.094
9.761
10.427
11.094
11.761
12.428
13.095
13.762
14.429
15.096
15.763
16.430
17.096
17.763
18.430
19.097
19.764
20.431
21.098
21.765
22.432

14
Principal
BDP JUM JMO IMK Airports
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

19.777.905
18.657.314
19.514.331
20.218.628
21.701.398
23.184.168
24.666.938
26.149.708
27.632.478
29.115.248
30.598.018
32.080.788
33.563.558
35.046.328
36.529.014
38.011.784
39.494.554
40.977.324
42.460.094
43.942.864
45.425.634
46.908.404
48.391.174
49.873.944

Others
14.556.505
13.104.864
13.706.831
14.201.528
15.243.023
16.284.518
17.326.013
18.367.508
19.409.003
20.450.498
21.491.993
22.533.488
23.574.983
24.616.478
25.657.914
26.699.409
27.740.904
28.782.399
29.823.894
30.865.389
31.906.884
32.948.379
33.989.874
35.031.369

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 119 of 147

Graphic Illustration:

REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO FORECAST

Cargo

35.000.000

NG

30.000.000

BR/VT
PK

25.000.000

LK
Cargo (Tn)

20.000.000
SK
15.000.000

DH

10.000.000

SI

5.000.000

BW

0
-5.000.000
2.000

JP
BP
2.005

2.010

2.015

2.020

2.025

2.030

2.035

2.040

BDP

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 120 of 147

14

TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR FORECASTING

14.1 AVAILABLE DATA


The following historical data are needed fore an international medium term
forecasting:

Peak hours Forecast, focused on daily data available for the last 3 years

The present data analysis has obtained the following series:

Daily hourly data 2011 pax and cargo.


Annual data, from 1981 to 2011

14.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL


Since TRIBHUVAN airport is the principal hub international airport in Nepal, its air
traffic study is specially important for future airport designs and planning.
For an appropriate future design criteria, the future peak day and peak hour needs
to be calculated. These peak day and peak hour will be the starting point for the
future airport sizing.
Different criteria are acceptable depending on recommendation sources. Following
are described the most used ones:

ICAO Doc. 9184 Airport Planning Manual Section 3.4. B.5: 30- 40 day
of the most busy day of the year.
IATA Airport Development Reference Manual Section C 2.5.4. suggests
several methods for peak days and hours:
o 85th percentile
o 40th busy hour or day of the year
o 30th busy hour or day of the year
o The second busiest day in an average week
during the peak month- an average weekly
pattern of traffic is then calculated for that
month.
o
FAA Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport Document: Hourly peaking
can be defined in different ways. The typical approach is to develop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 121 of 147

design hour flows of passengers and aircraft. The design hour is the
estimate of the peak hour of the average day of the busiest month. An
alternative definition of the design hour, appropriate for large airports that
have several busy months, is the peak hour that occurs about 10 percent of
the days of the year.

In the present study, the detailed following criteria has been chosen ( according to
referred 30th busy day of the year.

Since the only complete daily and hourly data available are the 2011 data,
2011 peak day and peak hour have been searched.

PASSENGER AND CARGO:


o From the daily traffic, the 30 position in the peak days ranking has
been chosen, as IATA recommendations suggests. This 30 day will
be the design day in 2011. This day will be extrapolated to future
years, 2015,2025 and 2035, according to the LT forecasting, and this
30 day data will be the design day data for the future.
o From these peak days, peak hours (maximum) will be identified in
order to know the maximum capacity needed in these hours in arrival
or departure passenger areas, maximum capacity needed in these
hours in runways and taxiways, and maximum cargo capacity
needed in these hours.
As recommendations indicates, its considered that during the more than
30th DESIGN DAY busy days the passenger and cargo management will be
saturated, and with a suitable scheduling will be solved.

AIRCRAFT:
o For aircraft traffic, the most busy day and hour has been considered
as DESIGN DAY AND HOUR, because in all case, every aircraft
must be managed properly in air side by Control Tower.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 122 of 147

14.2.1 TRIBHUVAN PEAK DAY RESULTS

14.2.1.1

Passengers

2011 daily data has been processed. Due to the length of this daily data series,
only the results and graphics are reflected in this document. For more details,
annexed documents are available.

Passenger Peak Day


18000

14000
12000

Design Day:
International pax: 9045
Day: 18/10/2011

10000
Pax

TOTAL
DAILY PAX

Design Day:
Total pax: 14535
Day: 21/10/2011

16000

DAILY
PAX DOM

8000
6000
4000

Design Day:
Domestic pax: 5776
Day: 08/11/2011

2000
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Descendent daily passenger order

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

As observed in the graphic, design days, international as well as domestic and


total, are concentrated in October and November, most busy months. (For more
details, see section 2.2. Air Traffic Seasonal Behaviour). Seasonal behaviour is
very regular, and not too sharp,
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 123 of 147

DAILY
PAX INT

Following, a brief extract of the most busy days to peak day ( 30 position):

MOST BUSY DAYS TO PEAK DAY

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Domestic Passengers
07/11/2011
7135
07/10/2011
6708
27/10/2011
6685
05/05/2011
6648
16/10/2011
6636
30/10/2011
6532
08/10/2011
6485
04/10/2011
6425
02/10/2011
6365
24/10/2011
6317
23/10/2011
6307
10/11/2011
6243
30/09/2011
6238
11/10/2011
6185
09/10/2011
6160
09/11/2011
6136
29/10/2011
6108
19/10/2011
6102
11/11/2011
6081
29/04/2011
6051
14/10/2011
6036
25/10/2011
6003
12/10/2011
5974
10/10/2011
5929
22/10/2011
5892
20/11/2011
5884
01/10/2011
5832
26/10/2011
5815
25/11/2011
5809
08/11/2011
5776

International Passengers
24/10/2011
10528
11/05/2011
10516
11/03/2011
10400
17/11/2011
10172
11/08/2011
10111
11/06/2011
10105
20/10/2011
9890
22/10/2011
9836
11/07/2011
9765
31/10/2011
9762
10/01/2011
9703
11/10/2011
9695
25/10/2011
9695
30/09/2011
9590
11/01/2011
9555
11/12/2011
9552
27/09/2011
9484
26/09/2011
9468
16/11/2011
9365
15/10/2011
9333
14/11/2011
9332
17/10/2011
9287
11/04/2011
9262
10/03/2011
9250
30/10/2011
9235
28/11/2011
9176
10/02/2011
9160
21/10/2011
9125
23/10/2011
9102
18/10/2011
9045

Total passengers
24/10/2011
16845
11/10/2011
15880
30/09/2011
15828
30/10/2011
15767
22/10/2011
15728
25/10/2011
15698
20/10/2011
15609
11/05/2011
15489
16/10/2011
15478
27/10/2011
15425
23/10/2011
15409
11/03/2011
15405
31/10/2011
15313
29/10/2011
15130
27/09/2011
15058
17/10/2011
14984
11/11/2011
14840
04/10/2011
14795
11/04/2011
14759
08/11/2011
14758
18/10/2011
14744
05/05/2011
14702
25/11/2011
14698
29/04/2011
14634
19/10/2011
14620
28/11/2011
14589
20/11/2011
14584
10/10/2011
14573
10/03/2011
14538
21/10/2011
14535
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 124 of 147

14.2.1.2

Aircraft Movements

In case of aircraft movement peak day choose, the maximum movement traffic day
has been chosen, because of the above exposed reasons.

AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS PEAK DAY


500

TOTAL
DAILY
MOV

Design Day:
Total Movements: 450
Day: 07/11/2011

450
400
350

Mov

300

Design Day:
Domestic movements:
378
Day: 07/11/2011

250
200

DAILY
MOV
DOM

Design Day:
International
movements:88
Day: 11/08/2011

150
100
50
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Descendent daily movement order

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 125 of 147

DAILY
MOV INT

Following, a brief extract of the most busy days to peak day ( 30 position):

MOST BUSY DAYS TO PEAK DAY

Domestic Aircraft
Movements
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

07/11/2011
09/11/2011
27/10/2011
03/10/2011
29/04/2011
24/10/2011
10/11/2011
16/10/2011
30/10/2011
23/10/2011
04/10/2011
08/10/2011
10/10/2011
08/11/2011
22/10/2011
11/11/2011
15/04/2011
07/10/2011
18/10/2011
11/10/2011
09/10/2011
29/10/2011
28/04/2011
20/11/2011
21/04/2011
23/04/2011
16/04/2011
26/10/2011
02/10/2011
26/04/2011

378
352
348
334
326
324
324
322
320
318
318
314
314
312
312
312
308
304
304
304
304
302
302
302
300
298
298
296
296
296

International
Aircraft
Movements
11/08/2011
30/10/2011
10/03/2011
14/11/2011
31/10/2011
11/03/2011
17/11/2011
11/07/2011
11/04/2011
28/11/2011
19/11/2011
12/06/2011
11/06/2011
12/12/2011
11/10/2011
29/10/2011
11/05/2011
15/11/2011
11/01/2011
17/10/2011
10/04/2011
10/02/2011
12/09/2011
16/11/2011
30/09/2011
10/06/2011
10/10/2011
14/04/2011
16/12/2011
29/11/2011

Total aircraft
Movements
88
86
86
84
84
84
84
84
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
78
78

07/11/2011
27/10/2011
09/11/2011
30/10/2011
24/10/2011
29/04/2011
03/10/2011
16/10/2011
10/11/2011
10/10/2011
11/11/2011
23/10/2011
04/10/2011
22/10/2011
11/10/2011
08/11/2011
29/10/2011
18/10/2011
20/11/2011
21/04/2011
15/04/2011
08/10/2011
09/10/2011
28/04/2011
17/10/2011
10/04/2011
25/10/2011
16/04/2011
07/10/2011
11/04/2011

450
422
416
406
402
396
396
396
394
392
390
390
388
386
386
384
382
382
380
378
378
376
374
372
372
370
368
368
368
366

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 126 of 147

14.2.1.3

Cargo

CARGO PEAK DAY


90000
TOTAL
DAILY
CARGO

80000
70000

Design Day:
Total Cargo: 53575
Day: 31/08/2011

Cargo

60000
50000
40000

DAILY
CARGO
DOM

Design Day:
International cargo:
40484
Day: 20/06/2011
Design Day:
Domestic cargo:
23849
Day: 25/11/2011

30000
20000
10000
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

DAILY
CARGO
INT

Descendent daily cargo order

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Following a brief extract of the most busy days to peak day ( 30 position):

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 127 of 147

MOST BUSY DAYS TO PEAK DAY

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Domestic Cargo
09/11/2011
10/11/2011
20/11/2011
24/11/2011
30/08/2011
27/10/2011
04/08/2011
29/04/2011
22/11/2011
01/09/2011
13/09/2011
02/06/2011
12/08/2011
01/06/2011
29/08/2011
11/08/2011
06/08/2011
23/11/2011
20/08/2011
11/11/2011
27/05/2011
10/08/2011
14/09/2011
05/05/2011
21/11/2011
04/09/2011
28/04/2011
27/08/2011
26/08/2011
25/11/2011

52213
39835
38725
38356
35416
34717
33761
32827
30378
29672
29093
28953
28033
27860
26513
26454
26448
26427
25970
25608
25501
25494
25490
25125
24909
24867
24449
24385
24040
23849

International Cargo
05/06/2011
58586
10/03/2011
56420
04/06/2011
55883
21/01/2011
53949
26/10/2011
52002
03/04/2011
51687
10/02/2011
50697
04/11/2011
49814
19/01/2011
49677
07/10/2011
49596
25/05/2011
48442
10/01/2011
46669
04/10/2011
46475,2
13/06/2011
46075
22/07/2011
45466
18/03/2011
44981
29/04/2011
44669
04/04/2011
43184
09/03/2011
43095
20/07/2011
42873
25/03/2011
41792,3
18/07/2011
41267
17/03/2011
41132
05/10/2011
41003
14/04/2011
40997
24/10/2011
40971
07/01/2011
40844
27/06/2011
40804
06/10/2011
40752
20/06/2011
40484

Total Cargo
05/06/2011
77741
29/04/2011
77496
09/11/2011
74988
04/08/2011
70534
13/09/2011
68200
25/05/2011
67401
26/10/2011
67066
10/03/2011
65281
04/06/2011
64887
30/08/2011
63382
10/02/2011
62495
27/10/2011
62184
27/05/2011
61715
01/09/2011
61089
03/04/2011
60104
18/07/2011
59912
14/09/2011
59278
04/10/2011
58442,2
25/10/2011
58171
21/01/2011
58062
23/11/2011
57974
22/04/2011
56364
04/11/2011
56091
25/03/2011
55825,3
06/08/2011
55363
20/11/2011
54973
19/01/2011
54607
24/11/2011
54109
13/06/2011
54087
31/08/2011
53575

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 128 of 147

14.2.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR RESULTS


14.2.2.1

Passengers

Following, each peak day, domestic and international peak day hourly
distribution is described, and peak hour is identified.
Arrival and Departure peak hour passengers have been distinguished for a
future terminals area sizing.
Domestic Passenger Peak Hour
08/11/2011
HOUR
Arrival Departure
1 00-01
0
0
2 01-02
0
0
3 02-03
0
101
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15

16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Empty
TOTAL

71
284
288
405
262
193
402
204
277
268
175
91

404
312
281
276
247
389
157
330
305
91
0
66

0
0
66
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2986

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
2986

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

International Passenger Peak


Hour
18/10/2011
HOUR
Arrival Departure
00-01
0
0
01-02
0
0
02-03
144
36
03-04
543
0
04-05
96
366
05-06
485
382
06-07
203
213
07-08
0
312
08-09
790
0
09-10
346
492
10-11
370
432
11-12
175
443
12-13
474
0
13-14
429
194
14-15
0
133
15-16
146
699
16-17
347
0
17-18
191
520
18-19
0
84
19-20
0
0
20-21
0
0
21-22
0
0
22-23
0
0
23-24
0
0
Empty
0
0
TOTAL
4739
4306
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 129 of 147

Graphic illustration:

DOMESTIC PASSENGER PEAK HOUR

Pax

08/11/2011
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50

404

405

Arrival

Departure

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER PEAK HOUR

Pax

18/10/2011
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100

790

699
Arrival

Departure

0
0

10

12

14
16
Day Hours

18

20

22

24

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 130 of 147

14.2.2.2

Aircraft Movements

Following, each peak day, domestic and international peak day hourly
distribution is described, and peak hour is identified.
Arrival and Departure peak hour movements have been distinguished for a
future air side area sizing.

0
1
2
3

Domestic Movement Peak Hour


07/11/2011
HOUR
Arrival Departure
00-01
0
7
01-02
5
17
02-03
16
21
03-04
22
18

0
1
2
3

International Movement Peak Hour


11/08/2011
HOUR
Arrival
Departure
00-01
0
0
01-02
0
0
02-03
0
0
03-04
0
1

4 04-05

11

21

4 04-05

5 05-06

26

11

5 05-06

6 06-07

11

16

6 06-07

7 07-08

16

14

7 07-08

13
16
18
19
3
3
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
189

20
14
14
5
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
189

6
1
4
3
2
1
1
3
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
44

3
5
3
3
2
1
1
3
3
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
44

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Empty
TOTAL

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Empty
TOTAL

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 131 of 147

Graphic illustration:

DOMESTIC MOVEMENTS PEAK HOUR

07/11/2011

30
25

26

21

21

Mov

20
15

Arrival

10

Departure

5
0
-5
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS PEAK HOUR

11/08/2011

Mov

5
4

Arrival

Departure

2
1
0
-1
0

10

12

14 16
Day Hours

18

20

22

24

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 132 of 147

14.2.2.3

Cargo

Following, each peak day, domestic and international peak day hourly
distribution is described, and peak hour is identified.
Arrival and Departure peak hour cargo have been distinguished for a future
cargo terminals area sizing.
Domestic Cargo Peak Hour
25/11/2011
HOUR
0 00-01
1 01-02

Arrival
0
0

2 02-03
3 03-04
4 04-05

International Cargo Peak Hour


20/06/2011

Departure

HOUR

Arrival Departure

2305
1195

0 00-01
1 01-02

0
0

0
0

0
300
2

5576
3305
5442

2 02-03
3 03-04
4 04-05

0
0
70

0
1208
0

5 05-06
6 06-07
7 07-08

740
476
195

648
339
422

5 05-06
6 06-07
7 07-08

0
696
283

0
300
0

8 08-09

200

454

8 08-09

258

8172

268
358
30
444
0
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

184
156
780
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

9000
2169
51
0
400
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

696
6327
2223
0
1576
0
0
1902
5151
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

3043

20806

12929

27555

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Empty
TOTA
L

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Empty
TOTAL

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 133 of 147

Graphic illustration:

DOMESTIC CARGO PEAK HOUR

25/11/2011
6000

5576

5000

Cargo

4000
3000

Arrival

2000

Departure

1000

740

0
-1000
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

INTERNATIONAL CARGO PEAK HOUR

20/06/2011
10000

9000

Cargo

8000

8172

6000

Arrival

4000

Departure

2000
0
-2000
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 134 of 147

14.2.3 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY


Departing from the 2011 peak day analysis, the future years design day is obtained, extrapolating the results according
to the LT forecasting results:
DESIGN PEAK DAYS
Pax Design Peak Day
2011

2015

2025

Domestic Design Peak Day


International Design Peak Day

08/11/2011
18/10/2011

5776
9045

0,354092%
0,334309%

8226
13820

2323000

Total Design Peak Day

21/10/2011

14535

0,335156%

21641

2035

4134000

14256
23957

20289
34093

6457000

37511

53384

Cargo Design Peak Day


2011

2015

2025

2035
80445,91
216034,8

Domestic Design Peak Day


International Design Peak Day

25/11/2011
20/06/2011

23849
40484

0,541994%
0,459144%

32612,34
114062,77

24842500

56529,19
171739,49

Total Design Peak Day

31/08/2011

53575

0,405333%

125084,27

30859600

193887,79

250878,1

2025

2035

6017100

Movement Design Peak Day


2011

2015

Domestic Design Peak Day


International Design Peak Day

07/11/2011
11/08/2011

378
88

0,463269%
0,356795%

513,65
113,82

110875

Total Design Peak Day

07/11/2011

450

0,423498%

604,65

31900

890,29
171,35

1267,042
215,5936

142775

1017,24

1414,164

% data: previous passenger/movement/cargo data over the total of the year


Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 135 of 147

14.2.4 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY PEAK HOUR


Departing from the 2011 peak hour analysis, the future years peak hour is obtained, extrapolating the results according
to the LT forecasting results:
DESIGN PEAK HOURS

Domestic Design Peak Day


International Design Peak Day

Domestic Design Peak Day


International Design Peak Day

Domestic Design Peak Day


International Design Peak Day

08/11/2011 Arrival
Departure
18/10/2011 Arrival
Departure

25/11/2011 Arrival
Departure
20/06/2011 Arrival
Departure

07/11/2011 Arrival
Departure
11/08/2011 Arrival
Departure

Hour
05-06
06-07
08-09
15-16

Pax Design Peak Hour


2011
288
0,017656%
276
0,016920%
790
0,029199%
699
0,025836%

2015
410
393
1207
1068

2025
711
681
2092
1851

2035
1012
970
2978
2635

Hour
10-11
06-07
09-10
08-09

Cargo Design Peak Hour


2011
358
0,008136%
339
0,007704%
9000
0,102072%
8172
0,092682%

2015
490
464
25357
23024

2025
849
804
38179
34667

2035
1208
1143
48027
43608

Hour
05-06
04-05
05-06
07-08

Movements Design Peak Hour


2011
2015
26
0,031865%
35
21
0,025737%
29
6
0,024327%
8
6
0,024327%
8

2025

2035

% data: previous passenger/movement/cargo data over the total of the year

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

61
49
12
12

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Page 136 of 147

87
70
15
15

15

NEPAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS EFFECTS IN AIR TRAFFIC


FORECAST.

Studied scenarios are based in past evolution and its projection in future.
A complementary study could analyze other future scenarios considering
the Nepal authorities planning and infrastructure decisions. Possible
infrastructure improvements could vary and influence:

Nepal GDP, and consequently the air traffic projection. These


GDP variations increase international traffic according to the
optimist model.
The domestic and international air traffic distribution among all
airports in Nepal.

These scenarios could be the following:

SIA international airport could be ready and operative in 2022:


1. With a 1% impact in GDP during 2018, 2019 and 2% in 2020
and afterwards.
2. SIA could receive all international traffic, and TIA would
become mostly a domestic airport.
PK international airport ready and operative in 2020:
1. With a 1% impact in GDP during 2016, 2017 and 2% during
2018 and afterwards.
2. PK could receive some Indian traffic, growing its international
scope and loosing domestic percentage. Consequently, TIA
would loose this international scope and PK-TIA domestic
traffic.

Gautam Buddha airport remodelling ready and operative in 2015:


1. With a 0,3% impact in GDP during 2016, 2017 and 0,5%
during 2018 and afterwards.
2. PK could receive some international traffic and bigger
aircrafts, growing its international scope and also domestic
percentage.
So, domestic and international traffic would in general grow according to
GDP variations, and at the same time, this growing would be redistributed
between the improved infrastructure and planned air traffic.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft

Page 137 of 147

16

ANNEX 1: SPSS MAIN RESULTS EXTRACTS

16.1 STD

Resume
Regression Statistics
Multiple Correlation Rate
0,88510707
Decision Rate R^2
0,78341452
Adjusted R^2
0,77899441
Typical Error
12223,8086
Observations
51
VARIANCE ANALYSIS
Freedom
Degrees

Square
Square
F Critical
Sums
Average
F
Value
1 2,6483E+10 2,6483E+10 177,238617 6,7333E-18
49 7321653380 149421498
50 3,3805E+10

Regression
Reminders
Total

Rates
Interception
Variable X 1

Typical
Error

Statistic t

Probability

Inferior
95%

Superior
95%

Inferior
95,0%

Superior
95,0%

80962,8549 14489,2307 5,58779527 1,0034E-06 110080,054 51845,6562 110080,054 51845,6562


1428,27702 107,283584 13,3130995 6,7333E-18 1212,68259 1643,87145 1212,68259 1643,87145

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 138 of 147

16.2 STI

Temporal Series Modeler


[Conjunto_de_datos1] D:\PROINTEC\ASISTENCIAS TCNICAS\NEPAL\2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development\Air
Traffic Demand\INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC STUDY\STD-STI\SPSS STD-STI Natconsumprice11.sav
De scri pcin del m odelo
ID del modelo

VA R00001

Modelo_1

Tipo de modelo
ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,0,0)

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 139 of 147

Aj uste del modelo

Es tadstico de ajus te
R-cuadrado est acionaria
R-cuadrado
RMSE
MA PE
MaxAP E
MA E
MaxAE
BIC normalizado

Media
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

ET
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Mnimo
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

Mximo
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

10
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

25
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

Percentil
50
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

75
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

90
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

Estadsticos del modelo

Modelo
VAR00001-Modelo_1

Nmero de
predictores
0

Es tads ticos
de ajus te del
modelo
R-cuadrado
es tacionaria
,266

Ljung-Box Q(18)
Es tads ticos
15,382

GL
17

Sig.
,568

Nmero de
valores
atpicos
0

16.3 LTI
PREDICT THRU YEAR 2035 .
* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 140 of 147

95
,266
,200
,217
7,333
37,362
,131
1,027
-2, 905

/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]


/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
/SAVE PREDICTED(Pronosticado)
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/ARIMA AR=[0] DIFF=2 MA=[0]
TRANSFORM=NONE CONSTANT=YES
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=NEPALGDP NUM=[1] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=1
TRANSFORM=NONE
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=INDIAGDP NUM=[0] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=0
TRANSFORM=NONE
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF.
Temporal Series Modeler
[Conjunto_de_datos0]
De scri pcin del m ode lo
ID del modelo

PA XINT

Modelo_1

Tipo de modelo
ARIMA (0,2,0)

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 141 of 147

Aj uste del modelo

Media
Es tadstico de ajus te
R-cuadrado est acionaria
,087
R-cuadrado
,985
RMSE
120380,4
MA PE
6,560
MaxAP E
25,782
MA E
81431, 941
MaxAE
299153,1
BIC normalizado
23,830

ET
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Percentil
95
90
50
75
10
25
5
Mnimo
Mximo
,087
,087
,087
,087
,087
,087
,087
,087
,087
,985
,985
,985
,985
,985
,985
,985
,985
,985
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
120380,4
6,560
6,560
6,560
6,560
6,560
6,560
6,560
6,560
6,560
25,782
25,782
25,782
25,782
25,782
25,782
25,782
25,782
25,782
81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
299153,1
23,830
23,830
23,830
23,830
23,830
23,830
23,830
23,830
23,830

Estadsticos del modelo

Modelo
PAXINT-Modelo_1

Nmero de
predictores
2

Es tads ticos
de ajus te del
modelo
R-cuadrado
es tacionaria
,087

Ljung-Box Q(18)
Es tads ticos
11,691

GL
18

Sig.
,863

Nmero de
valores
atpicos
0

PREDICT THRU END.


* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 142 of 147

/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/EXPERTMODELER TYPE=[ARIMA EXSMOOTH]
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF .
PREDICT THRU YEAR 2035 .
* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
/SAVE PREDICTED(Pronosticado)
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/EXPERTMODELER TYPE=[ARIMA EXSMOOTH]
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF .
Temporal Series Modeler
[Conjunto_de_datos0]
De scri pcin del m ode lo
ID del modelo

PA XINT

Modelo_1

Tipo de modelo
Brown

Model Resume
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 143 of 147

Aj uste del modelo

Es tadstico de ajus te
Media
R-cuadrado est acionaria
,224
R-cuadrado
,988
RMSE
102242,2
MA PE
6,223
MaxAP E
22,871
MA E
70391, 870
MaxAE
283723,7
BIC normalizado
23,174

ET
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Percentil
Mnimo
Mximo
5
10
25
50
75
90
95
,224
,224
,224
,224
,224
,224
,224
,224
,224
,988
,988
,988
,988
,988
,988
,988
,988
,988
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
102242,2
6,223
6,223
6,223
6,223
6,223
6,223
6,223
6,223
6,223
22,871
22,871
22,871
22,871
22,871
22,871
22,871
22,871
22,871
70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
283723,7
23,174
23,174
23,174
23,174
23,174
23,174
23,174
23,174
23,174

Estadsticos del modelo

Modelo
PAXINT-Modelo_1

Nmero de
predictores
0

Es tads ticos
de ajus te del
modelo
R-cuadrado
es tacionaria
,224

Ljung-Box Q(18)
Es tads ticos
16,498

GL
17

Sig.
,489

Nmero de
valores
atpicos
0

PREDICT THRU YEAR 2035 .


* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 144 of 147

/SAVE PREDICTED(Pronosticado)
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/ARIMA AR=[0] DIFF=1 MA=[0]
TRANSFORM=NONE CONSTANT=YES
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=NEPALGDP NUM=[1] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=0
TRANSFORM=NONE
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=INDIAGDP NUM=[0] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=0
TRANSFORM=NONE
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF.
Temporal Series Modeler
[Conjunto_de_datos0]
De scri pcin del m ode lo
ID del modelo

PA XINT

Modelo_1

Tipo de modelo
ARIMA (0,1,0)

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 145 of 147

Aj uste del modelo

Media
Es tadstico de ajus te
R-cuadrado est acionaria
,670
R-cuadrado
,992
RMSE
87471, 008
MA PE
5,451
MaxAP E
17,799
MA E
60691, 199
MaxAE
254103,5
BIC normalizado
23,182

ET
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Percentil
95
90
50
75
10
25
5
Mnimo
Mximo
,670
,670
,670
,670
,670
,670
,670
,670
,670
,992
,992
,992
,992
,992
,992
,992
,992
,992
87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008
5,451
5,451
5,451
5,451
5,451
5,451
5,451
5,451
5,451
17,799
17,799
17,799
17,799
17,799
17,799
17,799
17,799
17,799
60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
254103,5
23,182
23,182
23,182
23,182
23,182
23,182
23,182
23,182
23,182

Estadsticos del modelo

Modelo
PAXINT-Modelo_1

Nmero de
predictores
2

Es tads ticos
de ajus te del
modelo
R-cuadrado
es tacionaria
,670

Ljung-Box Q(18)
Es tads ticos
16,271

GL
18

Sig.
,574

Nmero de
valores
atpicos
0

16.4 LTD
Temporal Series Modeler
[Conjunto_de_datos0]

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 146 of 147

De scri pcin del m odelo


ID del modelo

VA R00001

Modelo_1

Tipo de modelo
ARIMA (0,0,0)

Model Resume
Aj uste del modelo

Es tadstico de ajus te
R-cuadrado est acionaria
R-cuadrado
RMSE
MA PE
MaxAP E
MA E
MaxAE
BIC normalizado

Media
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

ET
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Mnimo
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

Mximo
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

5
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

10
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

25
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

Percentil
50
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

75
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

90
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305

Estadsticos del modelo

Modelo
VAR00001-Modelo_1

Nmero de
predictores
0

Es tads ticos
de ajus te del
modelo
R-cuadrado
es tacionaria
-3,50E-015

Ljung-Box Q(18)
Es tads ticos
143,638

GL
18

Sig.
,000

Nmero de
valores
atpicos
0

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development
Air Traffic Demand Forecast

Page 147 of 147

95
-3, 5E-015
-3, 5E-015
,182
31,880
195,511
,144
,371
-3, 305