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CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report

Issue no. 6 - June 2015

Transfer values and probabilities


Drs Raffaele Poli, Loc Ravenel and Roger Besson

1. Introduction
A new transfer window is shortly approaching
for the principal countries of European football.
During summer 2014 the big-5 league clubs spent
a record 2.44 billion euro in transfer fees1. With
the increase in revenues for the richest clubs, it is
more than likely that the level of investments will
be similar or even greater for this transfer period.
Moreover, the easing of the financial fair-play
regime announced by UEFA should allow the
most affected clubs such as Paris St-Germain
and Manchester City to invest massively in the
recruitment of new players. This will probably
reinforce the process of rising transfer costs and
will result in a new record concerning transfer
expenditure.
The 6th Monthly Report of the CIES Football
Observatory focuses not only on the transfer
value of big-5 league players. We are also proud
to be able to present for the first time the probabilities of fee paying transfers for players active
in the five major European leagues. This was a
major achievement of the research work carried
out by our academic team during the last year.

For either the value or the probability of transfer,


our estimates are based on econometrical models
taking into account numerous variables relative
to players and their teams as illustrated in Figure 1 below. Transfer values and probabilities are
estimated on the basis of over 1,500 fee-paying
transfers involving big-5 league clubs from June
2009 up until the present.
The data presented refers to the situation on
the 8th June 2015. Matches played or contracts
extended after this date are not included in the
analysis. Our estimates take into account the inflationary trend of transfer fees. During the last
six seasons, this was observed for the upper segment of the market in particular.
During the last two transfer windows, the correlation measured between transfer fees estimated
and those actually paid was greater than 80%.
The strength of the correlation shows, on one
hand, that the footballers market is rational and,
on the other, that its rationality is well understood by the statistical model developed by our
research team.

1
For an in-depth analysis of transfer expenditure, please
refer to the third issue of the CIES Football Observatory
Monthly Report, as well as to Big-5 Weekly Post number 81
and number 82.

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

Our model also allows us to identify market bias


that is possible to exploit by letting over-valued
players go for a high fee, or by recruiting under-valued footballers for a keen price. The final
chapter of this report identifies the best performing players available for free because the contract
binding them to the employer club is coming to
an end. It also highlights the best performing
footballers with only one year of contract remaining.

Chapter 3 presents the ranking of the 100 players


with the highest transfer values. For these footballers, we also present the level of probability
of a fee-paying transfer taking place. This is also
relevant as the most expensive players are not
necessarily those who have the greatest wish to
change teams or those for whom employer teams
are more willing to accept a transfer.

Prior to this, chapter 2 presents the rankings of


100 players that our approach has identified as
most likely to be transferred for a fee. For each
player, we also present the price range that purchasing clubs should pay taking into account the
amounts spent previously for players with similar characteristics.

Figure 1: Key indicators in estimating transfer values and probabilities

Age
Position
Competition
level
Contract
Transfer value

Player

Results

Teams

Transfer probabiliy
International
status
Achievements
Experience
Performance

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

2. The most likely fee paying transfers


Among the footballers with the greatest transfer
probability are many players from relegated clubs.
Indeed, relegation obliges teams to compensate
declining revenues through transfers. Moreover,
this situation tends to encourage players to leave
the club. Consequently, relegated teams often offer interesting recruitment possibilities.
Players with one remaining year of contract are
also over-represented among those with the
greatest possibility of a paid transfer. Indeed,
if the player does not wish to renew, clubs find
themselves obliged to let him go to avoid a free
departure. Only four out of the 20 players with
the highest probability of a fee-paying transfer
have contracts expiring after June 2017: Alexandre Lacazette, Nabil Fekir, Jordan Ayew and
Grgoire Defrel.

In the list there are also three players who were


already the subject of paid transfers: Paulo Dybala, Gonzalo Castro and Anthony Ujah. In the
first two cases, the transfer sum reported was
well above the estimated value. The recruiting
clubs undoubtedly accepted to pay over the odds
so as to be one step ahead of the competition. On
the contrary, the fee paid for Anthony Ujah was
slightly less than our estimate.

Raheem Sterling is the player with the highest


transfer value among the 100 footballers with the
greatest transfer probability. He is followed by
Alexis Snchez, Antoine Griezmann, Harry Kane
and Philippe Coutinho. Numerous other players
with transfer values of over 20 million figure
in the list below: Alexandre Lacazette, Gonzalo
Higuan, Miralem Pjani, Mauro Icardi, Nabil
Fekir, Jos Callejn, Karim Bellarabi, Bernardo
Silva, Saido Berahino, Carlos Bacca, Roberto
Firmino, Yannick Ferreira Carrasco, Domenico
Berardi, Nathan Clyne and Paulo Dybala.

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

Figure 2a: The 100 big-5 league players with the greatest probability of a paid transfer2

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43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Charlie Austin (QPR)


Albin Ekdal (Cagliari)
Paulo Dybala (Palermo)
Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)
Jos Mauri (Parma)
Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon)
Raphal Guerreiro (Lorient)
Alberto Paloschi (Chievo)
Ilkay Gndoan (Dortmund)
Daniel Wass (Evian TG)
Elias Kachunga (Paderborn)
Tomer Hemed (Almera)
Fabin Orellana (Celta Vigo)
Romain Mtanire (Metz)
Bouna Sarr (Metz)
Nabil Fekir (Lyon)
Jordan Ayew (Lorient)
Grgoire Defrel (Cesena)
Oliver Sorg (Freiburg)
Shinji Okazaki (Mainz)
Ral Bobadilla (Augsburg)
Roberto Firmino (Hoffenheim)
Jake Livermore (Hull City)
Christian Gentner (Stuttgart)
Adrien Thomasson (Evian TG)
Wissam Ben Yedder (Toulouse)
Pablo Chavarra (Lens)
Gonzalo Higuan (Napoli)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Dortmund)
Tom Huddlestone (Hull City)
Franco Di Santo (Werder Bremen)
Jonathan Schmid (Freiburg)
Kevin Mirallas (Everton)
Branimir Hrgota (Mgladbach)
Pablo Sarabia (Getafe)
Vladimr Darida (Freiburg)
Stefano Okaka (Sampdoria)
Saido Berahino (WBA)
Alexis Snchez (Arsenal)
Elseid Hysaj (Empoli)
Mauro Icardi (Internazionale)
Johannes Geis (Mainz)
Martn Cceres (Juventus)
Wylan Cyprien (Lens)
Uwe Hnemeier (Paderborn)
Ahmed Elmohamady (Hull City)
Yannick Ferreira Carrasco (Monaco)
Roman Neustdter (Schalke)
Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Ryad Boudebouz (Bastia)

Contract

Age

Value

2016
2016
2016
2017
2016
2018
2017
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2019
2018
2018
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2016
2016
2017
2016
2018
2018
2016
2016
2018
2016
2016
2016
2018
2016
2017
2018
2016
2019
2017
2016
2017
2016
2016
2019
2016
2020
2016

25
25
21
20
19
24
21
25
24
26
23
28
29
25
23
21
23
23
25
29
27
23
25
29
21
24
27
27
25
28
26
24
27
22
23
24
25
21
26
21
22
21
28
20
29
27
21
27
21
25

10.2-11.2
3.4-3.7
18.3-20.1
73.7-81.0
3.5-3.9
35.5-39.1
8.0-8.8
4.6-5.1
16.9-18.6
2.0-2.2
1.8-2.0
1.2-1.4
4.7-5.2
1.0-1.1
1.4-1.5
26.0-28.6
13.2-14.5
6.0-6.6
2.0-2.2
3.5-3.9
3.5-3.9
20.0-22.0
5.8-6.4
1.9-2.1
1.3-1.5
7.5-8.3
0.8-0.9
34.1-37.5
14.5-16.0
4.6-5.1
7.2-7.9
3.4-3.8
6.6-7.3
3.8-4.2
3.7-4.1
5.5-6.0
5.7-6.3
20.7-22.8
67.8-74.6
5.1-5.6
26.1-28.7
6.7-7.4
2.2-2.4
2.1-2.3
0.9-1.0
2.9-3.2
20.0-22.0
4.1-4.5
53.5-58.9
2.6-2.9

2
Players on loan are not
included in the ranking.

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

Figure 2b: The 100 big-5 league players with the greatest probability of a paid transfer

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100.

Graziano Pell (Southampton)


Andreas Weimann (Aston Villa)
Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool)
Martin Harnik (Stuttgart)
Karim Bellarabi (Leverkusen)
Lukas Rupp (Paderborn)
Lenny Nangis (Caen)
Haris Seferovi (Frankfurt)
Gonzalo Castro (Leverkusen)
Leroy Fer (QPR)
Moritz Stoppelkamp (Paderborn)
Andrea Bertolacci (Genoa)
Lock Landre (Lens)
Mirko Valdifiori (Empoli)
Dimitri Payet (Marseille)
Sofiane Feghouli (Valencia)
Marcel Risse (Kln)
Abdelhamid El Kaoutari (Montpellier)
Dani Garca (Eibar)
Anthony Modeste (Hoffenheim)
Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton)
Yoann Touzghar (Lens)
Anthony Lopes (Lyon)
Nolan Roux (Lille)
Ashley Barnes (Burnley)
Joo Moutinho (Monaco)
Steven Caulker (QPR)
Diego Roln (Bordeaux)
Jol Matip (Schalke)
Anthony Ujah (Kln)
Simone Zaza (Sassuolo)
Miralem Pjani (Roma)
Riccardo Meggiorini (Chievo)
Bernardo Silva (Monaco)
David Hoilett (QPR)
Ander Capa (Eibar)
Kevin Grosskreutz (Dortmund)
Domenico Berardi (Sassuolo)
Gilles Sunu (Evian TG)
Carlos Bacca (Sevilla)
Jos Mara Callejn (Napoli)
Mario Vrani (Paderborn)
Antoine Griezmann (Atltico Madrid)
Sal Berjn (Eibar)
Paolo De Ceglie (Juventus)
Claudio Beauvue (Guingamp)
Jordan Veretout (Nantes)
Marco Hger (Schalke)
Iigo Martnez (Real Sociedad)
Felipe Caicedo (Espanyol)

Contract

Age

Value

2017
2016
2020
2016
2020
2016
2016
2017
2016
2017
2016
2017
2016
2017
2017
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2018
2018
2017
2016
2017
2019
2018
2016
2019
2016
2016
2016
2019
2016
2018
2018
2016
2020
2016
2017
2017
2017
2016
2017
2016

29
23
22
27
25
24
21
23
27
25
28
24
23
29
28
25
25
25
25
27
24
28
24
27
25
28
23
22
23
24
23
25
29
20
25
23
26
20
24
28
28
26
24
29
28
27
22
25
24
26

14.5-15.9
3.6-4.0
50.4-55.5
2.5-2.8
23.5-25.8
1.6-1.8
2.6-2.9
7.9-8.7
6.6-7.3
6.4-7.0
1.0-1.1
12.1-13.3
1.1-1.2
5.1-5.6
14.2-15.6
6.6-7.3
2.4-2.6
2.6-2.9
2.1-2.3
1.8-2.0
19.0-20.9
0.7-0.8
7.7-8.5
2.5-2.8
3.6-4.0
9.8-10.8
8.4-9.3
9.8-10.7
6.4-7.0
5.1-5.6
12.1-13.3
31.7-34.9
1.4-1.5
21.4-23.5
1.4-1.5
2.3-2.5
4.8-5.3
19.8-21.8
1.1-1.2
20.5-22.6
23.7-26.1
2.1-2.3
59.0-64.9
1.6-1.8
1.8-2.0
4.7-5.2
5.5-6.1
3.2-3.5
12.1-13.3
2.7-3.0

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

3. The highest transfer values


Footballers with the highest transfer values generally play in competitive teams, are active full
internationals, play in attacking positions, have
long-term contracts and are under 27 years of
age. The 100 footballers listed below3 do not only
differentiate themselves from the point of view of
the transfer value, but also from that of transfer
probability.
Transfer probability was assessed according to
three categories: high (at least twice as much
as for other big-5 league players), intermediate
(greater than that of other big-5 league footballers) and low (inferior to that of other big-5 league
players).
Unsurprisingly, Lionel Messi tops the ranking.
For the first time, in second place we find Eden
Hazard. The Belgian from Chelsea is ahead of
Christian Ronaldo. Aside from the Portuguese,
only six other players having already celebrated
their 30th birthday figure on the top 100 places:
Yaya Tour, Santi Cazorla, Andrs Iniesta, Carlos
Tvez, Thiago Silva and Luiz Fernandinho.
On the contrary, following the example of Raheem Sterling, Paul Pogba or Harry Kane, many
of the most expensive players are under 23 years
of age. The youngest is Calum Chambers. The
full back from Arsenal was born in January 1995,
some months after three other young talents
present in the ranking: Raheem Sterling, Nabil
Bentaleb and Kurt Zouma.

3
Appendix 1 presents the aggregated data on transfer
values compiled for each big-5 league team.

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

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50.

Lionel Messi (Barcelona)


Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
Neymar Jnior (Barcelona)
Sergio Agero (Manchester City)
Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)
Paul Pogba (Juventus)
Diego Costa (Chelsea)
Alexis Snchez (Arsenal)
James Rodrguez (Real Madrid)
Luis Surez (Barcelona)
Antoine Griezmann (Atltico Madrid)
Francesc Fbregas (Chelsea)
Isco Alarcn (Real Madrid)
Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Gareth Bale (Real Madrid)
Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool)
Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea)
Oscar dos Santos (Chelsea)
Karim Benzema (Real Madrid)
Mario Gtze (Bayern Mnchen)
Koke Resurreccin (Atltico Madrid)
Christian Eriksen (Tottenham)
Romelu Lukaku (Everton)
Toni Kroos (Real Madrid)
Willian Borges (Chelsea)
lvaro Morata (Juventus)
Sergio Busquets (Barcelona)
David Silva (Manchester City)
Edinson Cavani (PSG)
ngel Di Mara (Manchester United)
Kevin de Bruyne (Wolfsburg)
Wayne Rooney (Manchester United)
Marco Verratti (PSG)
Nemanja Mati (Chelsea)
Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Mnchen)
Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon)
Thomas Mller (Bayern Mnchen)
Manuel Neuer (Bayern Mnchen)
Mesut zil (Arsenal)
Gonzalo Higuan (Napoli)
Ross Barkley (Everton)
Yaya Tour (Manchester City)
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal)
Jrme Boateng (Bayern Mnchen)
Santi Cazorla (Arsenal)
Danny Welbeck (Arsenal)
Jordan Henderson (Liverpool)
Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal)
Miralem Pjani (Roma)

Contract

Age

Value

Probability

Evolution

2018
2020
2018
2018
2019
2017
2019
2019
2018
2020
2019
2020
2019
2018
2020
2019
2020
2019
2019
2019
2017
2019
2018
2019
2020
2018
2019
2019
2019
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2018
2019
2019
2018
2018
2018
2017
2018
2018
2017
2019
2020
2019
2018

27
24
30
23
27
20
22
26
26
23
28
24
28
23
21
25
22
23
23
27
23
23
23
22
25
26
22
26
29
28
27
23
29
22
26
26
24
25
29
26
27
21
32
21
26
30
24
24
24
25

255.3-280.8
135.4-148.9
113.3-124.7
89.6-98.5
78.2-86.0
73.7-81.0
70.3-77.3
69.9-76.9
67.8-74.6
62.5-68.8
60.0-66.0
59.0-64.9
58.7-64.5
57.2-62.9
53.5-58.9
51.3-56.4
50.4-55.5
50.3-55.3
47.5-52.3
44.6-49.1
42.8-47.1
41.2-45.3
40.2-44.2
39.7-43.7
39.7-43.6
38.6-42.5
38.4-42.2
38.1-41.9
38.0-41.8
37.7-41.5
36.9-40.6
36.7-40.4
35.9-39.5
35.8-39.4
35.6-39.2
35.5-39.1
35.5-39.1
35.3-38.8
34.3-37.7
34.1-37.6
34.1-37.5
33.6-37.0
33.3-36.6
33.2-36.5
32.4-35.6
32.2-35.4
32.1-35.3
31.9-35.1
31.8-35.0
31.7-34.9

*
*
*
*
*
***
*
*
***
*
*
***
*
*
***
*
***
*
**
*
*
***
***
***
*
*
*
*
*
**
*
***
*
*
*
*
***
*
*
**
***
***
*
**
*
**
**
***
**
***

=
=

=
=

=
=
=
=
=
=

Evolution : compared to January 2015

1.

Probabilities : * low / ** intermediate / *** high

Figure 3a: The 100 big-5 league players with the highest transfer values

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

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100.

Sadio Man (Southampton)


Andr Gomes (Valencia)
Emre Can (Liverpool)
Felipe Anderson (Lazio)
Gerard Piqu (Barcelona)
Lucas Moura (PSG)
Mateo Kovai (Internazionale)
Arturo Vidal (Juventus)
Juan Mata (Manchester United)
Jack Wilshere (Arsenal)
Alessandro Florenzi (Roma)
Juan Cuadrado (Chelsea)
David Alaba (Bayern Mnchen)
Ivan Rakiti (Barcelona)
Raphal Varane (Real Madrid)
Marco Reus (Dortmund)
Daniel Carvajal (Real Madrid)
Mats Hummels (Dortmund)
Mauro Icardi (Internazionale)
Nabil Fekir (Lyon)
Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)
Chris Smalling (Manchester United)
Olivier Giroud (Arsenal)
Vincent Kompany (Manchester City)
Carlos Tvez (Juventus)
Andrs Iniesta (Barcelona)
Marquinhos Aos (PSG)
Rodrigo Moreno (Valencia)
Marcelo Vieira (Real Madrid)
Wilfried Bony (Manchester City)
Jos Mara Callejn (Napoli)
Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus)
Juan Bernat (Bayern Mnchen)
Nabil Bentaleb (Tottenham)
Calum Chambers (Arsenal)
Thiago Silva (PSG)
Karim Bellarabi (Leverkusen)
Csar Azpilicueta (Chelsea)
Ricardo Rodrguez (Wolfsburg)
Heung-Min Son (Leverkusen)
Kurt Zouma (Chelsea)
Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool)
Pedro Rodrguez (Barcelona)
Luka Modri (Real Madrid)
David de Gea (Manchester United)
Carlos Vela (Real Sociedad)
Daley Blind (Manchester United)
Radja Nainggolan (Roma)
Luiz Fernandinho (Manchester City)
Antonio Candreva (Lazio)

Contract

Age

Value

Probability

Evolution

2018
2019
2019
2020
2019
2019
2019
2017
2018
2018
2019
2019
2018
2019
2020
2019
2019
2017
2019
2019
2017
2019
2018
2019
2016
2018
2019
2019
2018
2019
2018
2017
2019
2018
2020
2018
2020
2019
2019
2018
2019
2019
2019
2018
2016
2018
2018
2018
2017
2019

23
21
21
22
28
22
21
28
27
23
24
27
22
27
22
26
23
26
22
21
29
25
28
29
31
31
21
24
27
26
28
28
22
20
20
30
25
25
22
22
20
25
27
29
24
26
25
27
30
28

31.4-34.5
31.3-34.5
30.7-33.8
30.2-33.2
29.9-32.9
29.8-32.8
29.4-32.4
29.2-32.1
28.7-31.6
28.5-31.4
28.1-31.0
28.0-30.8
27.9-30.7
27.7-30.5
27.3-30.0
26.9-29.6
26.2-28.8
26.1-28.7
26.1-28.7
26.0-28.6
25.8-28.4
25.4-28.0
25.4-27.9
25.3-27.8
25.3-27.8
24.8-27.3
24.8-27.3
24.8-27.3
24.3-26.7
24.2-26.6
23.7-26.1
23.7-26.1
23.7-26.1
23.6-26.0
23.6-26.0
23.5-25.9
23.5-25.8
23.3-25.6
23.2-25.5
23.2-25.5
23.0-25.3
22.7-25.0
22.6-24.9
22.3-24.6
22.3-24.5
22.3-24.5
22.1-24.3
21.9-24.1
21.9-24.1
21.8-24.0

**
**
*
**
*
*
**
**
*
**
**
*
*
*
*
**
*
***
***
***
**
*
***
*
*
*
*
***
*
**
***
*
*
**
*
*
***
*
*
***
*
*
*
*
**
**
*
***
*
***

=
=
=
=
=

=
=
=

=
=
=

=
=

=
=
=

Evolution : compared to January 2015

51.

Probabilities : * low / ** intermediate / *** high

Figure 3b: The 100 big-5 league players with the highest transfer values

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

4. The bargains
Players at the end of contract represent 15% of
footballers having played for a big-5 club during
the second half of the 2014/15 season4. Most of
them have only played sporadically. However,
72 players whose contract comes to an end on
30th June of this year were fielded for more than
60% of minutes played over the course of the season. The list below presents the best performing
among them.
Players are ranked according to game statistics
measured in six key areas of the game identified by the CIES Football Observatory academic
team5. The best-ranked footballer whose contract
ends at the end of this month is Dani Alves: 1st
among full backs. From a strictly sporting point
of view, despite being aged 32, our analysis shows
that the Brazilian is a very interesting player for
many big-5 league teams, including the most
competitive ones.
Among the 15 best performing players at the end
of contract, the youngest is Andr Ayew, followed
by Alberto Bueno (already signed by FC Porto).
Three other footballers in the top 15 have not
yet celebrated their 30th birthday: Ludovic Baal,
Christian Fuchs (recruited by Leicester City) and
Ignazio Abate.

Players on loan are not included.


For a detailed explanation of the CIES Football Observatory approach for performance analysis, please refer to issue
5 of the Monthly Report.
4
5

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Dani Alves (Barcelona)


Jrmy Morel (Marseille)
Ludovic Baal (Lens)
Andr Ayew (Marseille)
Ricardo Carvalho (Monaco)
Rod Fanni (Marseille)
Christian Fuchs (Schalke)
Ignazio Abate (Milan)
Christian Maggio (Napoli)
Nigel de Jong (Milan)
Franco Brienza (Cesena)
Michael Krohn-Dehli (Celta Vigo)
Alberto Bueno (Rayo Vallecano)
Diego Colotto (Espanyol)
Stefano Mauri (Lazio)

Position

Ranking (position)

Age

FB
CB
FB
AM
CB
FB
FB
FB
FB
DM
AM
AM
FW
CB
AM

1
15
19
34
39
40
41
42
44
48
50
61
62
65
68

32
31
29
25
37
33
29
28
33
30
36
32
27
34
35

Postes : FB: Full back / CB: Center back / DM: defensive midfielder /
AM: Attacking midfielder / FW: Foward

Figure 4: Best performing players at the end of contract

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

The best performing players whose contract expires in June 2016 also represent good value for
money. Indeed, their contractual situation favors
clubs interested in eventual transfer negotiations.
Among the best-ranked footballers according to
our performance indicators, we find several players over thirty years of age (Xabi Alonso, Evra,
Maxwell, Tvez, Ibrahimovi and Vidi)
Apart from Paulo Dybala (already transferred
to Juventus), the youngest players in the list of
potential bargains are Nicolas NKoulou, Pablo
Piatti, Lars Stindl (already signed by Borussia
Mnchengladbach) and Dani Parejo. If they do
not extend their contract with their club, Claudio
Marchisio, Antonio Balzano, Romain Hamouma
and Olivier Veigneau could also be on the to-buy
list for clubs who wish to strengthen their squads.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Xabi Alonso (Bayern Mnchen)


Claudio Marchisio (Juventus)
Patrice Evra (Juventus)
Nicolas NKoulou (Marseille)
Carlos Tvez (Juventus)
Maxwell Scherrer (PSG)
Pablo Piatti (Valencia)
Lars Stindl (Hannover)
Paulo Dybala (Palermo)
Dani Parejo (Valencia)
Zlatan Ibrahimovi (PSG)
Nemanja Vidi (Internazionale)
Antonio Balzano (Cagliari)
Romain Hamouma (St-Etienne)
Olivier Veigneau (Nantes)

Position

Ranking (position)

Age

Valeur

DM
DM
FB
Dc
FW
FB
FW
AM
FW
DM
FW
CB
FB
AM
FB

3
5
6
8
11
12
17
17
19
19
20
20
20
20
21

33
29
34
25
31
33
26
26
21
26
33
33
28
28
29

5.1-5.6
16.7-18.4
2.3-2.5
5.0-5.5
25.3-27.8
2.0-2.2
7.2-7.9
2.7-3.0
18.3-20.1
9.8-10.7
11.0-12.1
2.3-2.5
1.1-1.2
2.5-2.8
0.7-0.8

Postes : FB: Full back / CB: Center back / DM: defensive midfielder /
AM: Attacking midfielder / FW: Foward

Figure 5: Best performing players with one year of contract remaining

10

Monthly Report no. 6 - Transfer values and probabilities

Appendix 1: Aggregated transfer values, by club


Million
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.

Barcelona (ESP)
Chelsea (ENG)
Real Madrid (ESP)
Arsenal (ENG)
Liverpool (ENG)
Bayern Mnchen (GER)
Manchester City (ENG)
Manchester United (ENG)
Tottenham (ENG)
Juventus (ITA)
PSG (FRA)
Atltico Madrid (ESP)
Napoli (ITA)
Roma (ITA)
Southampton (ENG)
Everton (ENG)
Dortmund (GER)
Valencia (ESP)
Internazionale (ITA)
Wolfsburg (GER)
Leverkusen (GER)
Lazio (ITA)
Swansea (ENG)
Monaco (FRA)
Lyon (FRA)
Sevilla (ESP)
Athletic Bilbao (ESP)
Schalke (GER)
Mgladbach (GER)
Newcastle (ENG)
Fiorentina (ITA)
Milan (ITA)
Villarreal (ESP)
Marseille (FRA)
Aston Villa (ENG)
Real Sociedad (ESP)
Palermo (ITA)
Stoke City (ENG)
West Ham (ENG)
Crystal Palace (ENG)
Leicester (ENG)
Torino (ITA)
Udinese (ITA)
Celta Vigo (ESP)
Hoffenheim (GER)
Sampdoria (ITA)
Sassuolo (ITA)
Mlaga (ESP)
Genoa (ITA)

682.0
617.8
545.1
466.1
381.5
378.9
374.7
337.7
313.9
308.3
285.8
255.1
231.8
220.6
197.6
185.9
175.8
171.5
168.9
162.1
155.7
155.7
147.8
146.0
143.1
129.9
123.1
113.3
108.9
106.9
104.5
102.8
100.9
97.7
94.6
90.4
87.6
85.1
84.5
82.0
81.8
81.8
81.2
79.3
76.0
75.7
73.4
71.3
71.1

Million
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.

Sunderland (ENG)
Bordeaux (FRA)
WBA (ENG)
St-Etienne (FRA)
Espanyol (ESP)
Lille (FRA)
Toulouse (FRA)
Lorient (FRA)
Werder Bremen (GER)
Atalanta (ITA)
Rennes (FRA)
Kln (GER)
Stuttgart (GER)
Mainz (GER)
Hull City (ENG)
QPR (ENG)
Frankfurt (GER)
Burnley (ENG)
Augsburg (GER)
Empoli (ITA)
Freiburg (GER)
Hannover (GER)
Cagliari (ITA)
Montpellier (FRA)
Hertha Berlin (GER)
Nice (FRA)
Nantes (FRA)
Granada (ESP)
Reims (FRA)
Guingamp (FRA)
Parma (ITA)
Hamburg (GER)
Levante (ESP)
Caen (FRA)
Bastia (FRA)
Metz (FRA)
Elche (ESP)
Chievo (ITA)
Cesena (ITA)
Getafe (ESP)
Hellas Verona (ITA)
Paderborn (GER)
Lens (FRA)
Almera (ESP)
Rayo Vallecano (ESP)
Deportivo La Corun (ESP)
Evian TG (FRA)
Eibar (ESP)
Crdoba (ESP)

69.7
67.7
66.8
57.2
55.0
54.8
53.4
53.3
51.1
49.8
49.3
48.6
46.5
45.5
44.0
41.3
40.0
39.8
39.4
38.8
38.7
36.7
36.0
35.6
34.7
33.9
33.1
33.0
27.2
26.6
26.4
25.9
23.1
22.6
22.1
20.5
19.9
19.7
17.7
17.4
17.0
16.3
15.7
14.8
14.6
12.5
12.2
11.9
8.8

11