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support vector machines with genetic algorithms

Ping-Feng Pai a, , Wei-Chiang Hong b

a

Department of Information Management, National Chi Nan University, 1, University Rd. Puli, Nantou, Taiwan 545, ROC

b School of Management, Da-Yeh University, 112 Shan-Jiau Road, Da-Tusen, Changhua, Taiwan 51505, ROC

Received 10 October 2004; received in revised form 14 January 2005; accepted 15 January 2005

Available online 8 April 2005

Abstract

Accompanying deregulation of electricity industry, accurate load forecasting of the future electricity demand has been the most important

role in regional or national power system strategy management. Electricity load forecasting is complex to conduct due to its nonlinearity

of influenced factors. Support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series

problems. However, the application for load forecasting is rare. In this study, a recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms

(RSVMG) is proposed to forecast electricity load. In addition, genetic algorithms (GAs) are used to determine free parameters of support vector

machines. Subsequently, examples of electricity load data from Taiwan are used to illustrate the performance of proposed RSVMG model.

The empirical results reveal that the proposed model outperforms the SVM model, artificial neural network (ANN) model and regression

model. Consequently, the RSVMG model provides a promising alternative for forecasting electricity load in power industry.

2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Recurrent neural networks (RNNs); Support vector machines (SVMs); Recurrent support vector machines (RSVM); Genetic algorithms (GAs);

Electricity load forecasting

1. Introduction

With introduction of deregulation into electricity industry,

accurate load forecasting of the future electricity demand has

been the most important role regarding the areas of distribution system investments, electricity load planning and management strategies in regional or national systems. Inaccurate

load forecasting may increase operating costs [1,2]. Bunn and

Farmer [1] pointed out that a 1% increase in forecasting error implied a 10 million increase in operating costs. Therefore, overestimation of future load results in an unnecessary

spinning reserve, and the excess supply is also unwelcome

to international energy networks. On the contrary, underestimation of future load causes failure in providing sufficient

reserve and implies high costs per peaking unit. It is necessary for international electricity production cooperation that

E-mail address: paipf@yahoo.com.tw (P.-F. Pai).

0378-7796/$ see front matter 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2005.01.006

forecasting approaches are generally classified into time series [35], state space and Kalman filtering technology [5],

regression models [1,5,6], artificial intelligence techniques

[7,8] and fuzzy logic methods [9]. Time series model, known

as BoxJenkins ARIMA model, uses historical load data to

infer the future electricity load. Time series approaches are

convenient for modeling especially when only the electricity

load data are available. On the other hand, the disadvantage

of time series model is the ignorance of other factors that

influence electricity loads. State space and Kalman filtering

technology treats the periodic component of load as a random

process and uses 310 historical data to establish the periodic

load variation for estimating the dependent variables (load or

temp erature) of the power system. The regression model

establishes the causeeffect relationships between electricity load and independent variables such as climate factors,

social activities and seasonal factors. Knowledge-based expert system (KBES) and artificial neural networks (ANNs)

418

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

are the popular representatives of artificial intelligence techniques for load forecasting in the recent decade. The KBES

model forms new rules based on received information, including daily temperature, day types and load from the previous day. Artificial intelligence techniques for load forecasting

are superior to traditional forecasting approach. However, the

training procedure of an artificial intelligence model is time

consuming. Therefore, some approaches were proposed to

accelerate the speed of converge [8]. The fuzzy logic model

is useful in forecasting electricity load particularly while the

historical data are represented by linguistic terms.

The support vector machines (SVMs) are based on the

principle of structural risk minimization (SRM) rather than

the principle of empirical risk minimization, which conducted by most of traditional neural network models. With introduction of Vapniks -insensitive loss function [10], SVMs

have been extended to solve nonlinear regression estimation problems in financial time series forecasting, air quality

prediction, production value forecast of machinery industry,

engine reliability prediction, etc. Recurrent neural networks

(RNNs) are based on the main concept in which every unit

is considered as an output of the network and the provision

of adjusted information as input in a training process. RNNs

are extensively applied in long term load time series forecasting [11] and can be classified in three types, Jordan networks [12], Elman networks [13], and Williams and Zipser

networks [14]. Both Jordan and Elman networks use mainly

past information to capture detailed information. Williams

and Zipser networks take much more information from the

hidden layer and back into themselves. Therefore, Williams

and Zipser networks are sensitive when models are implemented (Tsoi and Back [15]). Jordan and Elman networks

are suited to time series forecasting (Jhee and Lee [16]). In

this investigation, the Jordan network is used as a basis for the

proposed RSVMG model. Traditionally, RNNs are trained by

back-propagation algorithms. In this work, SVMs with genetic algorithms are used to determine the weights between

nodes. Finally, the proposed RSVMG model is applied to

forecast electricity load. A numerical example in the literature [7] is employed to demonstrate the forecasting accuracy

of the proposed model.

r(C) = C

N

1

1

(ai , fi ) + ||w||2

N

2

(2)

i=1

where

(a, f ) =

if |a f |

0,

|a f | , otherwise

(3)

called the -insensitive loss function. The loss equals zero if

the forecasted value is within the -tube (Eq. (3) and Fig. 1).

The second term, 21 ||w||2 , measures the flatness of the function. Therefore, C is considered to specify the trade-off between the empirical risk and the model flatness. Both C and

are user-determined parameters. Two positive slack variables

and * , which represent the distance from actual values to

the corresponding boundary values of -tube (Fig. 1), are

introduced. Then, Eq. (2) is transformed into the following

constrained form:

Minimize

r(w, , )

N

1

2

= ||w|| + C

(i + i )

2

(4)

i=1

wi (xi ) + bi ai + i , i = 1, 2, . . . , N

ai wi (xi ) bi + i , i = 1, 2, . . . , N

i = 1, 2, . . . , N

i , i 0,

This constrained optimization problem is solved using the

following primal Lagrangian form;

L(wi , b, , , i , i , i , i )

N

1

(i + i )

= ||w||2 + C

2

i=1

algorithms

N

i [wi (xi ) + b ai + + i ]

i=1

N

i=1

The basic concept of the SVM regression is to map nonlinearly the original data x into a higher dimensional feature

space. Hence, given a set of data G = {(xi , ai )}N

i=1 (where

xi is the input vector, ai the actual value and N is the total

number of data patterns), the SVM regression function is:

f = g(x) = wi i (x) + b

coefficients. The coefficients (wi and b) are estimated by minimizing the following regularized risk function:

(1)

N

i=1

i [ai wi (xi ) b + + i ]

(i i + i i )

(5)

wi , b, and * , and maximized with respect to nonnegative Lagrangian multipliers i , i , and i . Finally,

KarushKuhnTucker conditions are applied to the regres-

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

419

Fig. 2. The architecture of a SVMG model.

(i , i ) =

N

i=1

ai (i i )

N

N

i=1

(i + i )

1

(i i )(j j )K(xi , xj )

2

(6)

the framework of the proposed SVMG model. GAs are used

to yield a smaller MAPE by searching for better combinations

of three parameters in SVMs. Fig. 3 depicts the operation of

a GAs, which is described below.

i=1 j=1

N

i=1

(i i ) = 0

0 i C, i = 1, 2, . . . , N

0 i C, i = 1, 2, . . . , N

The Lagrange multipliers in Eq. (6) satisfy the equality

i i = 0. The Lagrange multipliers and i , are calculated

and an optimal desired weight vector of the regression hyperplane is,

w =

N

i=1

(i i )K(x, xi )

(7)

g(x, , ) =

N

i=1

(i i )K(x, xi ) + b

(8)

Kernel equals the inner product of two vectors, xi and xj , in the

feature space (xi ) and (xj ); that is K(xi , xj ) = (xi )(xj ).

Any function that meets Mercers condition [10] can be used

as the

function.

In this work, the Gaussian function,

Kernel

2

||x

x

||

i

j

is used in the SVMs.

exp 21

model is important to the accuracy of forecasting. However,

structural methods for confirming efficiently the selection of

parameters efficiently are lacking. Therefore, GAs are used

in the proposed SVM model to optimize parameter selection. Holland first proposed genetic algorithms [18]. Such

algorithms are based on the survival principle of the fittest

member in a population, which retains genetic information

420

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

Step 1 (Initialization). Generate randomly an initial population of chromosomes. The three free parameters, , C and

, are encoded in a binary format; and represented by a chromosome.

Step 2 (Evaluating fitness). In this study, a negative mean

absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used as the fitness

function. The MAPE is as follows:

N

1 ai fi

(9)

MAPE =

a 100%

N

i

i=1

N is the number of forecasting periods.

Step 3 (Selection). Based on fitness functions, chromosomes

with higher fitness values are more likely to yield offspring

in the next generation. The roulette wheel selection principle

(Holland [18]) is applied to choose chromosomes for reproduction.

randomly by converting a 1 bit into a 0 bit or a 0 bit

in to a 1 bit. The single-point-crossover principle is employed. Segments of paired chromosomes between two determined break-points are swapped. The rates of crossover

and mutation are probabilistically determined. In this study,

the probabilities of crossover and mutation are set to 0.5 and

0.1, respectively.

where vij are weights between the input and the hidden layer;

wikv are weights between the context and the hidden layer

with k delay periods and s is the total number of context

layers in past output data, in the proposed RSVMG model,

there is only one context layer (i.e., s = 1) due to only one

output neuron (i.e., r = 1).

Back-propagation yields gradients for adapting weights

of a neural network. The back-propagation algorithm is presented as follows. First, the output of the nth neuron in Eq.

(11) is rewritten as:

generation.

(12)

xT (t)

a given scale, then the best chromosomes are presented as a

solution; otherwise go back to Step 2.

and fn (t);

where h() is the nonlinearity function of

xT (t) = [x1 (t), . . ., xP (t)]T is the input vector; (t) = [1 (t), . . .,

P (t)]T is the weight vector; a cost function is then presented

to be the instantaneous performance index,

algorithms

J((t)) =

neural network framework. All neurons in a layer except those

in the context layer are connected with all neurons in the next

layer. A context layer is a special hidden layer. Interactions

only occur between neurons in the hidden layer and those in

the context layer. Fig. 4 shows the architecture of a Jordan

network. For a Jordan network with p inputs, q hidden and r

output neurons, the output of the nth neuron, fn (t), is [19]:

fn (t) =

q

Wi i (t) + bi (t)

(10)

i=1

2

2

1

1

d(t) fn (t) = d(t) h(xT (t)(t))

(13)

2

2

The instantaneous output error at the output neuron and

the revised weight vector in the next moment are given by

Eqs. (14) and (15), respectively.

e(t) = d(t) fn (t) = d(t) h(xT (t)(t))

(14)

(t + 1) = (t) J((t))

(15)

Third, the gradient J((t)) can be calculated as:

J((t)) =

i (t) is the output function of the hidden neurons, which is:

r

P

s

i (t) = g

vij xj (t) +

wikv fv (t k) + bi (t)

j=1

k=1 v=1

(11)

e(t)

J((t))

= e(t)

(t)

(t)

(16)

where h
() is the first derivative of the nonlinearity h(). Finally, the weight is revised as:

(t + 1) = (t) + e(t)h
(xT (t)(t))x(t)

(17)

Year

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

MAPE

Northern regional

Central regional

Southern regional

Eastern regional

Regression

3,388

3,523

3,752

4,296

4,250

5,013

5,745

6,320

6,844

7,613

7,551

8,352

8,781

9,400

10,254

10,719

11,222

11,642

11,981

12,924

3,430

3,494

3,933

4,277

4,395

4,986

5,594

6,238

6,753

7,292

7,736

8,345

8,917

9,419

10,073

10,921

11,262

12,162

12,395

13,122

1,867

1,893

2,098

2,256

2,289

2,564

2,858

3,145

3,424

3,685

3,804

4,150

4,355

4,532

4,831

5,307

5,361

5,711

5,780

6,131

2,227

2,263

2,488

2,697

2,796

3,126

3,409

3,701

3,979

4,267

4,551

4,887

5,120

5,418

5,805

6,208

6,493

6,868

7,013

7,481

124

126

141

153

156

175

195

216

234

251

265

288

305

321

343

373

380

407

413

440

3,288

3,623

3,852

4,079

4,427

4,962

5,645

6,348

6,944

7,397

7,788

8,252

8,853

9,500

9,956

10,956

11,252

11,644

12,219

12,826

2,988

3,392

3,645

3,896

4,258

4,754

5,345

5,993

6,648

7,213

7,610

7,952

8,531

9,467

10,334

10,319

11,213

11,747

12,173

12,543

3,424

3,491

3,926

4,263

4,398

4,993

5,607

6,287

6,769

7,311

7,788

8,318

8,958

9,470

10,091

10,838

10,991

11,643

11,804

12,834

0.7498

1,663

1,829

2,157

2,219

2,190

2,638

2,812

3,265

3,376

3,655

4,043

4,425

4,594

4,771

4,483

4,935

5,061

5,246

5,233

5,633

1,615

1,839

2,066

2,295

2,525

2,755

2,986

3,214

3,441

3,665

3,885

4,101

4,311

4,515

4,712

4,700

5,065

5,231

5,385

5,522

1,713

1,872

2,034

2,207

2,398

2,613

2,858

3,130

3,426

3,734

4,040

4,324

4,568

4,752

4,862

4,885

5,060

5,203

5,230

5,297

1,833

1,864

2,079

2,257

2,323

2,602

2,868

3,143

3,369

3,593

3,864

4,134

4,364

4,614

4,894

5,197

5,112

5,301

5,350

5,572

1.3026

2,272

2,346

2,494

2,686

2,829

3,172

3,351

3,655

3,823

4,256

4,548

4,803

5,192

5,352

5,797

6,369

6,336

6,318

6,259

6,804

2,172

2,383

2,542

2,685

2,853

3,072

3,341

3,636

3,923

4,187

4,448

4,747

5,100

5,452

5,670

6,279

6,200

6,156

6,261

6,661

2,192

2,399

2,565

2,718

2,886

3,092

3,340

3,617

3,903

4,185

4,468

4,772

5,112

5,467

5,769

5,916

6,265

6,389

6,346

6,513

2,235

2,269

2,494

2,697

2,786

3,113

3,405

3,705

3,989

4,279

4,550

4,894

5,132

5,419

5,794

6,206

6,305

6,476

6,537

6,672

1.7530

122

127

148

142

143

176

206

227

236

243

264

292

307

325

343

363

358

397

401

420

109

125

141

157

173

189

206

222

238

255

271

287

303

319

335

336

367

381

401

416

110

126

142

158

174

191

207

224

240

257

274

291

307

324

341

357

358

373

397

408

124

127

143

153

157

175

194

216

232

248

259

284

307

325

346

371

378

403

410

435

1.8955

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

Table 1

Taiwan regional electricity load (from 1981 to 2000) and forecasting results of RSVMG, SVMG, ANN and regression models (unit: 106 Wh)

421

422

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

Table 4

Wilcoxon signed-rank test

Region

= 0.025, W = 0

= 0.05, W = 0

Northern region

RSVMG vs. SVMG

RSVMG vs. ANN

RSVMG vs. regression

1

1

0

1

1

0

Southern region

RSVMG vs. SVMG

RSVMG vs. ANN

RSVMG vs. regression

1

0

0

1

0

0

Central region

RSVMG vs. SVMG

RSVMG vs. ANN

RSVMG vs. regression

0

0

0

0

0

0

Eastern region

RSVMG vs. SVMG

RSVMG vs. ANN

RSVMG vs. regression

0

0

0

0

0

0

Table 2

Training and testing data sets of the proposed model

Data sets

RSVMG model

Training data

Validation data

Testing data

19811992

19931996

19972000

ANN model

19811996

19972000

The output of RSVMG (f (t)) is

f (t) =

P

(18)

i=1

to run the loop of SVMG in the search for values of three

parameters. Finally, the forecast values f (t) are calculated

using Eq. (18). Eq. (18) yields the forecast value f (t).

to show the forecasting performances of RSVMG models

comparing with those of ANN model and regression model

proposed by Hsu and Chen [7]. The total load values from

1981 to 2000 serve as experimental data. Totally, 20 load data

for Taiwan regional electricity load are available, as listed in

Table 1. To conduct the forecast performance on the same

basis, it is necessary to divide total data into the same subsets. Therefore, the data are divided into three data sets: the

training data set (12 years, from 1981 to 1992), the validation

data set (4 years, from 1993 to 1996) and the testing data set

(4 years, from 1997 to 2000) [7]. The three data sets are listed

in Table 2. The forecasting accuracy is measured by absolute

percentage error (MAPE), as given by Eq. (9).

In the training stage, the training data set of each region (including total 12 load data) are fed into the RSVMG

model, and the structural risk minimization principle is em-

Table 3

Forecasting results and parameters of SVMG model and RSVMG model

Regions

SVMG parameters

Northern

Central

Southern

Eastern

0.30

0.90

0.50

7.00

2.10 1010

1.85 1010

1.00 1010

0.600 1010

400

50

80

1

Regions

RSVMG parameters

Northern

Central

Southern

Eastern

0.50

4.10

0.47

8.00

1.3981

1.8146

2.0243

2.6475

MAPE of testing (%)

C

2.50 1010

1.95 1010

1.35 1010

0.60 1010

100

10

100

5

0.7498

1.3026

1.7530

1.8955

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

423

improvement occurs, the three kernel parameters, , C and

of RSVMG model adjusted by GAs are employed to calculate the validation error. Then, the adjusted parameters with

minimum validation error are selected as the most appropriate parameters. Finally, a four-steps-ahead policy is used to

forecast electricity load in each region. Note that the testing

data sets are not used for modeling but for examining the

accuracy of the forecasting model. Then, the kernel parameters, , C and , in the RSVMG model with the smallest

testing MAPE value is used as the most suitable model for

this example. The forecasting results and the suitable param-

models are illustrated in Table 3.

Table 1 also lists the MAPE values of various forecasting

models. In each region electricity load forecasting, based on

the same forecasting period, the proposed RSVMG model

has smaller MAPE values than SVMG, ANN and regression

models (the latter two models were proposed by Hsu and

Chen [7]), particularly for the southern region and the eastern

region. The ANN model failed to capture the load decreasing

trend from 1997 to 1998 in the southern region, similarly,

the ANN model also failed to capture the load increasing

rate from 1998 to 2000 in the eastern region. Figs. 69 illus-

424

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

regarding each region.

To verify the significance of accuracy improvement of

RSVMG, the statistical test, namely Wilcoxon signed-rank

test, was conducted. The test was performed at the 0.025

and 0.05 significance levels n one-tail-tests. The test results (Table 4) showed that almost the RSVMG model yields

improved forecast results and significantly outperforms the

other three forecasting models, only except versus SVMG

(in northern region and southern region) and ANN (northern

region) models.

4. Conclusions

Accurate load forecasting is crucial for an energy-limited

economy system, like Taiwan. The historical electricity load

data of each region in Taiwan shows a strong growth trend,

particularly in northern region. Although this is a common

phenomenon in developing countries, overproduction or

underproduction electricity load influence the sustainable

development of economy a lot. This study introduced a novel

forecasting technique, RSVMG, to investigate its feasibility

in forecasting annual regional electricity loads in Taiwan.

P.-F. Pai, W.-C. Hong / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 417425

outperformed the ANN and regression models in terms

of forecasting accuracy. The superior performance of the

RSVMG model has several causes. First, the RSVMG model

has nonlinear mapping capabilities and thus can more easily

capture electricity load data patterns than can the ANN and

regression models. Second, improper determining of these

three parameters will cause either over-fitting or under-fitting

of a SVM model. In this work, the GAs can determine suitable

parameters to forecast electricity load. Third, the RSVMG

model performs structural risk minimization rather than minimizing the training errors. Minimizing the upper bound on the

generalization error improves the generalization performance

compared to the ANN and regression models. Finally, Jordan

recurrent networks can continually capture data patterns

from the output layer with past values into the hidden layer.

This investigation is the first to apply the recurrent

neural network and SVM model with GAs to electricity

load forecasting. The empirical results obtained in this

study demonstrate that the proposed model offers a valid

alternative for application in the electricity industry. In

the future, regional climate factors, social activities, and

seasonal factors can be included in the RSVMG model for

forecasting electricity load. In addition, some other advanced

searching techniques for suitable parameters selection can

be combined with RSVM to forecast electricity load.

Acknowledgements

This research was conducted with the support of National Science Council (NSC 93-2213-E-212-001 & NSC

93-2745-H-212-001-URD). Mr. Chih-Shen Lin helped with

data analysis.

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