In class example, economics

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In class example, economics

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Lecture 03 - In Class Exercise Summer 2012

Problem 1

The Energy Information Administration in the US reported the mean retail price per gallon of regular gasoline

was $2.30 in 2006. Suppose the standard deviation was $0.10.

(a) What can you say about the % of regular gas sold between $2.10 and $2.50 per gallon?

(c) What can you say about the % of regular gas sold between $2.10 and $2.50 per gallon if the price of gas has

(d) What can you say about the % of regular gas sold between $2.20 and $2.50 per gallon if the price of gas has

Problem 2

(a) Consider the Tim Horton case (02Lecture-case.pdf). Using Excels Data Analysis Descriptive

Statistics tool on question 1 data set of 30 customers (03Lecture-case.xlsx) you get the following output. Do

you feel that Store Managers are doing their job in enforcing the 20min rule?

Time Spent at Tim Hortons

Mean

Standard Error

Median

Mode

Standard Deviation

Sample Variance

Kurtosis

Skewness

Range

Minimum

Maximum

Sum

Count

18.73333333

1.994206167

17.5

7

10.92271702

119.3057471

0.249112574

0.725353099

44

3

47

562

30

(c) Consider the Tim Horton case study question 1 but suppose there is an additional data point that is 55 minutes, it is an

outlier?

Column1

Mean

Standard Error

Median

Mode

Standard Deviation

Sample Variance

Kurtosis

Skewness

Range

Minimum

Maximum

19.87096774

2.25843315

18

7

12.57442361

158.116129

0.970853597

1.021467359

52

3

55

Sum

Count

616

31

Problem 3

Given 5 equally likely outcomes O1, O2, O3, O4, O5 and events A = {O1, O2}, B = {O3, O4}, C = {O2, O3, O4}

(a) Find P[A], P{B], P[C]

Problem 4

Given P[A] = 0.3, P[B] = 0.4, P[A B] = 0.2 find P[ AC (A U B)].

Problem 5

You go to a casino and there is a game where the dealer rolls a pair of dice. You bet that the total rolled is 6, what is

probability of you winning?

Problem 6

The project approval process in a certain corporation follows the circuit pictured below. If manager a approves, the

project is approved irregardless of what the other mangers do. If manager a does not approve the project, but manager

b approves the project, then it forwarded to both managers c and d. If either c or d approves, then the project is

a go. Suppose that each manager has a probability p = 0.7 of approving the project and that everyone comes to the

decision independently, what is the probability that a project will be approved in the corporation (8 marks)

Let outcome a = manager a approves, A = manager a not approve. Same goes for b,c,d.

Probability manager approves = p and not approve = p (1 p ) . Circle all events lead to project not getting approve.

0 approve

1 approve

2 approve

3 approve

4 approve

abcd

Abcd

ABcd

ABCd

ABCD

aBcd

AbCd

ABcD

abCd

AbcD

AbCD

abcD

aBCd

aBCD

aBcD

abCD

Problem 6

7

There are 50 workers in a small company. 5 workers completed work late. 6 workers made defective parts. 2

workers were late and made defective parts.

(a) What is probability that a worker is late in this company?

(b) What is probability that a worker made defective parts in this company?

(c) If there were 100 workers in this company, how many would either be late or made defective parts or both?

(d) Are the events late and made defective parts mutually exclusive?

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