5 views

Uploaded by Nur Munawwarah

Discrete probability from school of computer science USM

- Probability and Stochastic Processes m
- probability
- Understanding Statistics
- (Graduate Texts in Physics) Tânia Tomé, Mário J. de Oliveira (Auth.)-Stochastic Dynamics and Irreversibility-Springer International Publishing (2015)
- L1 Probability Theory
- History of Statistics
- Ba Bsc Statistics
- c04
- Gentle Lentil Case.pdf
- Chapter 17 Probability Distributions.pdf
- IE6200-L2
- Too Big to Fail, Hidden Risks, and the Fallacy of Large Institutions
- Statistics and Probability November 7-11, 2016
- 111 Math midterm.pdf
- 1 Random Variables
- Discrete Probability Distributions
- stats2
- pdfNew-BAStatistics
- QMDM_Prob
- Module01.pdf

You are on page 1of 40

Counting

Summation Principle

Multiplication Principle

Permutation

Combination

Pigeon Hole Principle

Probability

CPT112

March 8, 2015

2/40

the basis for computing the probability of events to

happen.

Used to assign values to the experiment/test that

does not guarantee to return the same value on

repeated test

.

Different from predicted test that always gives the same

result.

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability : Introduction

3/40

CPT112

unpredictable result

Sample possible result from certain test

of all samples from certain test

Event A statement that explain the result of a test;

the result is either true or false

March 8, 2015

Probability

4/40

Example:

CPT112

Random Test:

Samples:

Sample Space:

(all 4 possibilities)

March 8, 2015

5/40

(related to the event) from the test.

Test Example: Toss 20 cent and 50 cent coins.

1. If the test is to count number of heads, then the sample

space is { 0,1,2 }

2. If the test is to record head-tail sequence of 20 cent

followed by 50 cent, therefore the sample space is

{ HH, HT, TH, TT }

3. If the test is to record whether the result is the same

pair or not (e.g. HH or TT is consider same pair),

therefore the sample space is {Same, Different}

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability: Event

6/40

Example:

Random Test:

Sample space:

head-tail sequence.

S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }

Event A:

A = { HH, HT, TH }

Event B:

B = { HH }

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability: Event

7/40

Sample space:

Event A

Event B

S = { HH,HT,TH,TT }

A = { HH, HT, TH }

B = { HH }

the set operation (intersection, union, etc.) can be applied

on sample spaces and events.

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability: Event

8/40

Event C = {HT, TH} (only one head)

Based on the above two events we can

generate new events:

CPT112

Event A or C (same pair or only one head)

March 8, 2015

Probability: Event

9/40

Event A and C = {

Event A or C = {

}

}

A or C = A C

= { HH,HT,TH,TT }

A and C

=AC

={ }

Union:

Intersection:

Complement:

XY

X or Y

XY

X and Y

X

not X

XY=

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability: Event

10/40

Empty Set () and sample space set is also an event,

according to the definition.

If S is a sample space, therefore S is a definite event and

an empty set is an impossible event

Note: for sample space of size n, there are 2n events

(remember power set? And counting technique on how to

count it?)

sample space:

event X

event Y

CPT112

X= {}

Y = { HH, HT, TH, TT }

March 8, 2015

Probability

11/40

and observe the result.

Assume to obtain H and T are equally likely (that

means we have a fair coin)

In word: from 2 possible events (the whole sample

space) there is 1 probability that event H can

happen

In probability: p(H) =

CPT112

1 choice 1

=

from 2

2

March 8, 2015

Probability

12/40

Note:

case of the sample space is equally likely to

happen.

Equal likelihood case might not necessarily occur.

Example,

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability

13/40

CPT112

known as event probability.

P(E) reflects the assumption made

about the likelihood of event E to

happen.

March 8, 2015

Probability

14/40

Determine the probability:

p(x1)= p1, p(x2) = p2, . . . p(xn)=pn

Characteristic in determining the probability:

1.

2.

CPT112

0 pi 1, i = 1, n

p1 + p2 + + pn = 1

March 8, 2015

Probability

15/40

Probability event

Event

p(A) = mi=1 pi

where yi has probability

pi to happen

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Probability

16/40

CPT112

It is said that there is 1 probability from N total

possibility = 1/N

Event probability of size m has m probability

from N total possibility or m/N

March 8, 2015

Probability

17/40

Example:

Toss a dice once and observe the result

CPT112

1.

2.

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

18/40

Example 1:

An urn contains four blue balls and five red

balls. What is the probability that a ball

chosen from the urn is blue?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

19/40

Solution:

1. There are nine possible outcomes, and

outcomes.

3. Therefore, the probability of this event is 4/9 or

approximately 44.44%.

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

20/40

Example 2:

What is the probability of winning the lottery that

is, you have to pick the correct set of six numbers

out of 49 numbers?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

21/40

Solution:

1. There are C(49, 6) possible outcomes.

2. Only one of these outcomes will actually make you

win the lottery.

Therefore;

p(E) = 1/C(49, 6) = 1/13,983,816

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Complimentary Events

22/40

of an event not E( E), the complimentary event of E,

is given by

p(E) = 1 p(E).

CPT112

probability of the complimentary event than the

probability of the event itself.

March 8, 2015

Complimentary Events

23/40

Example 1:

A sequence of 10 bits is randomly generated.

What is the probability that at least one of

these bits is zero?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Complimentary Events

24/40

Solution:

1. There are 210 = 1024 possible outcomes of

generating such a sequence.

2. The event E, none of the bits is zero, includes

only one of these outcomes, namely the sequence

1111111111.

|S|=1024, |E |=1

Now p(E) can easily be computed as

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

25/40

we have:

p(E1 E2) = p(E1) + p(E2) - p(E1 E2)

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

26/40

Example:

selected at random from the set of positive

integers not exceeding 100 to be divisible by 2

or 5?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

27/40

Solution:

1. E2: integer is divisible by 2

2. E5: integer is divisible by 5

E2 = {2, 4, 6, , 100}

|E2| = 50, |S|=100

p(E2) = 0.5

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

28/40

|E5| = 20

p(E5) = 0.2

E2 E5 = {10, 20, 30, , 100}

|E2 E5| = 10

p(E2 E5) = 0.1

CPT112

=p(E2 E5)

= 0.5 + 0.2 0.1

= 0.6

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

29/40

CPT112

experiment are not equally likely?

In that case, we assign a probability p(s) to

each outcome s S, where S is the sample

space.

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

30/40

(2): sS p(s) = 1

Meaning,

CPT112

and

the probabilities must add up to 1, because one of

the outcomes is guaranteed to occur.

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

31/40

the limit of the number of times s occurs divided by the

number of times the experiment is performed.

Once we know the probabilities p(s), we can compute

the probability of an event E as follows:

p(E) = sE p(s)

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

32/40

Example 1:

twice as often as each other number. What are

the probabilities of all possible outcomes?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

33/40

Solution:

p(s1) = p(s2) = p(s4) = p(s5) = p(s6)

p(s3) = 2p(s1)

Since the probabilities must add up to 1, we have:

5p(s1) + 2p(s1) = 1

7p(s1) = 1

CPT112

p(s3) = 2/7

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

34/40

Example 2:

probability that an odd number appears when

we roll the dice?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability

35/40

Solution:

Eodd = {s1, s3, s5}

Remember the formula

p(E) = sE p(s).

p(Eodd) = sE p(s) = p(s1) + p(s3) + p(s5)

odd

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Conditional Probability

36/40

CPT112

probability that an odd number of tails

appears (event E), if the first toss is a

tail (event F) ?

March 8, 2015

Conditional Probability

37/40

CPT112

TTT, TTH, THT, and THH.

In two out of these four cases, there is an odd

number of tails.

Therefore, the probability of E, under the condition

that F occurs, is 0.5.

We call this conditional probability.

March 8, 2015

Conditional Probability

38/40

CPT112

given F, we use F as the sample space.

For any outcome of E to occur under the condition that F

also occurs, this outcome must also be in E F.

Definition: Let E and F be events with p(F) > 0.

The conditional probability of E given F, denoted by

p(E | F), is defined as

p(E | F) = p(E F) / p(F)

March 8, 2015

Conditional Probability

39/40

Example:

What is the probability of a random bit string of

length four to contain at least two consecutive 0s,

given that its first bit is a 0 ?

CPT112

March 8, 2015

Conditional Probability

40/40

Solution:

1. E: bit string contains at least two consecutive 0s

2. F: first bit of the string is a 0

3. We know the formula p(E | F) = p(E F)/p(F).

p(E F) = 5/16

p(F) = 8/16 =

p(E | F) = (5/16)/(1/2)

= 10/16

= 0.625

CPT112

March 8, 2015

- Probability and Stochastic Processes mUploaded byKevin Flores Zamora
- probabilityUploaded byapi-19505025
- Understanding StatisticsUploaded byAnonymous jPQFkAwa
- (Graduate Texts in Physics) Tânia Tomé, Mário J. de Oliveira (Auth.)-Stochastic Dynamics and Irreversibility-Springer International Publishing (2015)Uploaded bySolange Oliveira
- L1 Probability TheoryUploaded byfac_econ_presi
- History of StatisticsUploaded byMaikka Ilagan
- Ba Bsc StatisticsUploaded byAhmed El Kordy
- c04Uploaded byMusa Ayob
- Gentle Lentil Case.pdfUploaded byRahul Sukhija
- Chapter 17 Probability Distributions.pdfUploaded byJoshua Brodit
- IE6200-L2Uploaded byfarzad
- Too Big to Fail, Hidden Risks, and the Fallacy of Large InstitutionsUploaded byapi-26177473
- Statistics and Probability November 7-11, 2016Uploaded byjun del rosario
- 111 Math midterm.pdfUploaded byalamin018
- 1 Random VariablesUploaded byYusra Hanis
- Discrete Probability DistributionsUploaded byBaber H. Elahi
- stats2Uploaded byJohn Mrimba
- pdfNew-BAStatisticsUploaded bysonu
- QMDM_ProbUploaded bychacha_420
- Module01.pdfUploaded byEmman Joshua Busto
- L_04.pdfUploaded byALIKNF
- Prob and Stat NotesUploaded byprachiz1
- BBS10_ppt_mtb_ch05Uploaded byAgenttZeeroOutsider
- e MassdensityUploaded byImdadul Haque
- ProblemSheet06MT3073 CRVUploaded byusama
- Random VariablesUploaded byShōyōHinata
- 9781849962315-c1 (4)Uploaded byAgam Reddy M
- 5620- T2R-F14Uploaded byLibyaFlower
- Normal Table 1Uploaded byTZSheng
- Comparison of Methods for the Reconstruction of Probability Density Functions From Data SamplesUploaded byHugo Hernández

- 275Uploaded byapi-288001898
- What Skills Does A GIS Analyst RequireUploaded bybanerjeetushar
- Postscript Lounger MuniesaUploaded byDamian O'Doherty
- How Wellbore Dynamics Affect Pressure Transient AnalysisUploaded byVictor Javier Pernia
- Registered Teacher Criteria CopyUploaded byStephen Snell
- ChromatographyUploaded byMATHANKUMAR.S
- Excel Made SimpleUploaded byAshley Ka
- Erlang StdlibUploaded bySkyezine Via Kit Fox
- lesson 4-thinking addition to 18 to subtractUploaded byapi-273444334
- A project for keyless friction locking assembliesUploaded byDiego Dalpiaz
- Technological UnemploymentUploaded byAniket Singh Kashyap
- Saya Recognition Dragon ReportUploaded byGautham Padmaraju
- Hydraulic Pumps and MotorsUploaded byChumporn Saraphatmarkying
- bmiforpactitionersUploaded byvaluat
- System Verilog for VHDL UsersUploaded byZakzouk Zakzouk
- 1_4992689474879094875.pdfUploaded byHaresh D
- 2009 Basil Ielts 4 Reading Passage 2Uploaded byelgrecos
- Crack Initiation and Defect AssessmentUploaded bymahmoud_allam3
- msds.pdfUploaded byputri
- UntitledUploaded byapi-77934339
- Appendix E1 - Geotech Site B 4-1-13.pdfUploaded byLeonardo Cruz
- 38_matrix True FalseUploaded byShawn Joshua Yap
- CV of Mr. Marlon Borromeo Ramirez.docUploaded byThe Clasher
- Drains and ARDUploaded byMaria-Melania Genes
- The Macro Environment Plays Big Role for Making Marketing EnvironmentUploaded byAbdul Akif
- Broker Genius vs NRZ Entertainment/Nathan Zalta etc.Uploaded byAnonymous 9YsE38IjJ
- Use...FRPGridReinforcedSlabs[1]Uploaded byrtoutlaw32
- OBTL ManualUploaded byAriane Joyce Villafranca Gara
- Final QuestionnaireUploaded bylscyyc9227
- Group1-AC1B LitosphereUploaded byGlen Mangali