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Counting
Summation Principle
Multiplication Principle
Permutation
Combination
Pigeon Hole Principle
Probability

CPT112

March 8, 2015

6.0 Discrete Probability


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Everything you have learned about counting constitutes


the basis for computing the probability of events to
happen.
Used to assign values to the experiment/test that
does not guarantee to return the same value on
repeated test
.
Different from predicted test that always gives the same
result.
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Probability : Introduction
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CPT112

Random Test Test or process that give


unpredictable result
Sample possible result from certain test

Sample Space (from random test) a set that consist


of all samples from certain test
Event A statement that explain the result of a test;
the result is either true or false
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Probability
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Example:

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Random Test:

flip a coin twice and record headtail sequence.

Samples:

HH, TT, TH, HT

Sample Space:

{ HH, TT, TH, HT }


(all 4 possibilities)
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Probability: Sample Space


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Sample space depends on what need to be observed


(related to the event) from the test.
Test Example: Toss 20 cent and 50 cent coins.
1. If the test is to count number of heads, then the sample
space is { 0,1,2 }
2. If the test is to record head-tail sequence of 20 cent
followed by 50 cent, therefore the sample space is
{ HH, HT, TH, TT }
3. If the test is to record whether the result is the same
pair or not (e.g. HH or TT is consider same pair),
therefore the sample space is {Same, Different}
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Probability: Event
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Example:
Random Test:
Sample space:

Flip a coin twice and record


head-tail sequence.
S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }

Event A:

get at least one head


A = { HH, HT, TH }

Event B:

did not get tail


B = { HH }

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Probability: Event
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Sample space:
Event A
Event B

S = { HH,HT,TH,TT }
A = { HH, HT, TH }
B = { HH }

Since the sample space and event are set, therefore


the set operation (intersection, union, etc.) can be applied
on sample spaces and events.

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Probability: Event
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Event A = {HH, TT} (same pair)


Event C = {HT, TH} (only one head)
Based on the above two events we can
generate new events:

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Event A and C (same pair and only one head)


Event A or C (same pair or only one head)
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Probability: Event
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Event A and C = {
Event A or C = {

}
}

Using set operation:


A or C = A C
= { HH,HT,TH,TT }
A and C
=AC
={ }
Union:
Intersection:
Complement:

XY
X or Y
XY
X and Y
X

not X

Event that did not intersect is known as mutually exclusive :


XY=
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Probability: Event
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Event is always a subset to a sample space


Empty Set () and sample space set is also an event,
according to the definition.
If S is a sample space, therefore S is a definite event and
an empty set is an impossible event
Note: for sample space of size n, there are 2n events
(remember power set? And counting technique on how to
count it?)
sample space:
event X
event Y
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S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }


X= {}
Y = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
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Probability
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Example: The test is to flip a coin once


and observe the result.

Get the probability head, H, happen.


Assume to obtain H and T are equally likely (that
means we have a fair coin)
In word: from 2 possible events (the whole sample
space) there is 1 probability that event H can
happen
In probability: p(H) =

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1 choice 1
=
from 2
2

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Probability
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Note:

Equal likely event is the assumption that each


case of the sample space is equally likely to
happen.
Equal likelihood case might not necessarily occur.
Example,

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in the case of cheated coin

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Probability
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Each event E is given a value P(E),


known as event probability.
P(E) reflects the assumption made
about the likelihood of event E to
happen.

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Probability
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Determine the Probability

Sample space: { x1, x2, x3, . . . , xn }


Determine the probability:
p(x1)= p1, p(x2) = p2, . . . p(xn)=pn
Characteristic in determining the probability:
1.
2.

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0 pi 1, i = 1, n
p1 + p2 + + pn = 1
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Probability
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Probability event
Event

A = { y1, y2, y3, ym }


p(A) = mi=1 pi
where yi has probability
pi to happen

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Probability
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Equally likely event probability

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Sample space with N probability


It is said that there is 1 probability from N total
possibility = 1/N
Event probability of size m has m probability
from N total possibility or m/N

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Probability
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Example:
Toss a dice once and observe the result

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1.

How many possibility are there?

2.

What is the probability of each?

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Discrete Probability
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Example 1:
An urn contains four blue balls and five red
balls. What is the probability that a ball
chosen from the urn is blue?

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Discrete Probability
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Solution:
1. There are nine possible outcomes, and

2. The event blue ball is chosen comprises four of these


outcomes.
3. Therefore, the probability of this event is 4/9 or
approximately 44.44%.

Note: S = { b1, b2, b3, b4, r1, r2, r3, r4, r5 }

Note: E = { b1, b2, b3, b4 }

Therefore p(E) = 4/9

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Discrete Probability
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Example 2:
What is the probability of winning the lottery that
is, you have to pick the correct set of six numbers
out of 49 numbers?

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Discrete Probability
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Solution:
1. There are C(49, 6) possible outcomes.
2. Only one of these outcomes will actually make you
win the lottery.

|S| = C(49, 6), |E| = 1

Therefore;
p(E) = 1/C(49, 6) = 1/13,983,816
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Complimentary Events
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Let E be an event in a sample space S. The probability


of an event not E( E), the complimentary event of E,
is given by
p(E) = 1 p(E).

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This can easily be shown:

This rule is useful if it is easier to determine the


probability of the complimentary event than the
probability of the event itself.
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Complimentary Events
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Example 1:
A sequence of 10 bits is randomly generated.
What is the probability that at least one of
these bits is zero?

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Complimentary Events
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Solution:
1. There are 210 = 1024 possible outcomes of
generating such a sequence.
2. The event E, none of the bits is zero, includes
only one of these outcomes, namely the sequence
1111111111.
|S|=1024, |E |=1

Therefore, p(E) = (1/1024).


Now p(E) can easily be computed as
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p(E) = 1 p(E) = 1 (1/1024) = 1023/1024.

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Discrete Probability
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Let E1 and E2 be events in the sample space S. Then


we have:
p(E1 E2) = p(E1) + p(E2) - p(E1 E2)

Does this remind you of something?

CPT112

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Discrete Probability
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Example:

What is the probability of a positive integer


selected at random from the set of positive
integers not exceeding 100 to be divisible by 2
or 5?

CPT112

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Discrete Probability
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Solution:
1. E2: integer is divisible by 2
2. E5: integer is divisible by 5

E2 = {2, 4, 6, , 100}
|E2| = 50, |S|=100

p(E2) = 0.5
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Discrete Probability
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E5 = {5, 10, 15, , 100}


|E5| = 20
p(E5) = 0.2
E2 E5 = {10, 20, 30, , 100}
|E2 E5| = 10
p(E2 E5) = 0.1

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p(E2 E5) = p(E2) + p(E5) p(E2 E5 )


=p(E2 E5)
= 0.5 + 0.2 0.1
= 0.6

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Discrete Probability
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CPT112

What happens if the outcomes of an


experiment are not equally likely?
In that case, we assign a probability p(s) to
each outcome s S, where S is the sample
space.

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Discrete Probability
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Two conditions have to be met:

(1): 0 p(s) 1 for each s S, and


(2): sS p(s) = 1

Meaning,

CPT112

each probability must be a value between 0 and 1,


and
the probabilities must add up to 1, because one of
the outcomes is guaranteed to occur.
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Discrete Probability
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How can we obtain these probabilities p(s) ?

The probability p(s) assigned to an outcome s equals


the limit of the number of times s occurs divided by the
number of times the experiment is performed.
Once we know the probabilities p(s), we can compute
the probability of an event E as follows:
p(E) = sE p(s)

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March 8, 2015

Discrete Probability
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Example 1:

A dice is biased so that the number 3 appears


twice as often as each other number. What are
the probabilities of all possible outcomes?

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Discrete Probability
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Solution:

There are 6 possible outcomes s1, , s6.


p(s1) = p(s2) = p(s4) = p(s5) = p(s6)
p(s3) = 2p(s1)
Since the probabilities must add up to 1, we have:
5p(s1) + 2p(s1) = 1
7p(s1) = 1

p(s1) = p(s2) = p(s4) = p(s5) = p(s6) = 1/7,


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p(s3) = 2/7

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Discrete Probability
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Example 2:

For the biased dice from Example 1, what is the


probability that an odd number appears when
we roll the dice?

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Discrete Probability
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Solution:
Eodd = {s1, s3, s5}
Remember the formula
p(E) = sE p(s).
p(Eodd) = sE p(s) = p(s1) + p(s3) + p(s5)
odd

p(Eodd) = 1/7 + 2/7 + 1/7 = 4/7 = 57.14%


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Conditional Probability
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CPT112

If we toss a coin three times, what is the


probability that an odd number of tails
appears (event E), if the first toss is a
tail (event F) ?

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Conditional Probability
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CPT112

If the first toss is a tail, the possible sequences are


TTT, TTH, THT, and THH.
In two out of these four cases, there is an odd
number of tails.
Therefore, the probability of E, under the condition
that F occurs, is 0.5.
We call this conditional probability.
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Conditional Probability
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CPT112

If we want to compute the conditional probability of E


given F, we use F as the sample space.
For any outcome of E to occur under the condition that F
also occurs, this outcome must also be in E F.
Definition: Let E and F be events with p(F) > 0.
The conditional probability of E given F, denoted by
p(E | F), is defined as
p(E | F) = p(E F) / p(F)
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Conditional Probability
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Example:
What is the probability of a random bit string of
length four to contain at least two consecutive 0s,
given that its first bit is a 0 ?

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Conditional Probability
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Solution:
1. E: bit string contains at least two consecutive 0s
2. F: first bit of the string is a 0
3. We know the formula p(E | F) = p(E F)/p(F).

E F = {0000, 0001, 0010, 0011, 0100}


p(E F) = 5/16
p(F) = 8/16 =

p(E | F) = (5/16)/(1/2)
= 10/16
= 0.625
CPT112

March 8, 2015