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DATA 2015

2015 downstream forecast reaches an all-time high

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil
demand is expected to rise to 97 MMbpd by 2020 and up to 115 MMbpd
by 2040. There are just under 650 refineries operating in 120 countries
around the world. This represents a total installed capacity of nearly 95
MMbpd. With consumption rising to nearly 115 MMbpd by 2040, additional capacity must be constructed to meet surging demand.
The world is also watching natural gas become the fastest-growing
fossil fuel. Growth on both the supply and demand sides has resulted in
the announcement of billions of dollars of capital investments across the
world. These investments include the construction of LNG export and
receiving terminals, cryogenic and gas processing plants, fractionators,
pipelines and storage facilities, as well as large capital infusions in the
exploration and production sector.
Finally, the global chemical sector will continue to see strong growth
through 2015. The most significant expansions will be in developing
countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East. Some of
the strongest growth is seen in the US, where cheap natural gas feedstock is fueling over $100 billion (B) in announced new capacity investments through 2020.
In 2015, the HPIs capital, maintenance and operating budgets are
expected to exceed $324 B. Global announced project spending continues to surge to satisfy increasing demand for petroleum products. The
Hydrocarbon Processing Construction Boxscore Database is tracking
over 500 new project announcements in 2014 (FIG. 1), representing a
72% increase in new project announcements over the previous year.
These new capacity additions are imperative for countries to supply the
increasing demand for energy supplies.

Refining. Demand for transportation fuels continues to increase, and it

is driven by expanding economies of developing nations. This industry

Total new project announcements 20122014





Europe* Latin America Middle East


*European project totals contain projects in Russia and the CIS.

FIG. 1. Total new project announcements 20122014. Source: Hydrocarbon

Processing Construction Boxscore Database.

continues to invest to increase processing flexibility. In 2015, new and

existing refineries will be designed to handle unconventional feedstocks,
such as NGLs, bitumen, heavy oil, and shale oil. Over 53% of the new
capacity will be constructed in developing nations. In particular, present
and future new construction will be located in the Middle East and AsiaPacific regions. New mega-refining capacity expansions in the Middle
East will produce refined products that will be exported to growing
demand centers in Asia and to displace higher-cost refined products in
Europe. Looking ahead, excess refining capacity is possible. However,
cost-competiveness will force refiners to rationalize some capacity to
remain competitive. Countries will continue to make investments to
increase environmental and sustainability performance as well.

Gas processing/LNG. Improved flexibility in LNG and pipeline gas

deliveries is one result of the deeper integration of international gas
markets. More than $700 B is expected to be invested in LNG facilities
worldwide through 2035, speeding up the integration of regional gas
markets and improving gas supply security.
Within individual nations, the greater integration of regional gas markets is helping coordinate production and demand. This phenomenon
is especially prominent in the US, where gas processing and transport
infrastructure is expanding into major shale gas production areas, paving
the way for the further development of multiple supply hubs. The greater
interconnectedness of gas supplies to demand areas, particularly in
times of shortage, will heighten the reach, attractiveness and availability
of gas as a key fuel alongside oil and coal.

Petrochemicals. The evolution of the global petrochemical marketplace

appears poised to take its next step. Four years ago, the question was if
the North American shale wave was real. Two years ago, the issue was sustainability and if regulations would cripple it. Today, answers are here. The
wave is very real, regulations arent significantly hampering development,
and producers are well into new construction projects to take advantage.
Even with demand forecasts spotty, the feedstock supply is cheap enough
for project economics to remain strong. But with those answers come
more questionsmainly, what it means for chemicals beyond ethylene
and how global producers can compete with those in the US.
In 2015 and beyond, the big questions involve the next wave. With the
processing of US shale-derived ethane, that means fewer by-products
such as propylene, butadiene, and derivatives, relative to cracking
naphtha. That means producers are on the lookout for ways to avoid the
shortfall. Outside the US, innovation is the key to survival, and Europeans
are plotting new strategies to find cost-advantaged ethane feedstocks,
even from the US. Meanwhile, in the Middle East and Asia, the demand
surge of recent years is flattening, and some producers could lose market
share to American rivals.


This prospectus is just a snapshot of the
expanded data and analysis available in the full
edition of HPI Market Data 2015.


The HPI Market Data 2015 contains 104 pages

with more than 50 tables and 100 figures of data,
trends and detailed editorial analysis.


Hydrocarbon Processing has produced an HPI
market report for more than 35 years. HPI leaders,
executives and decision-makers throughout the
world have come to rely upon this analysis and data
for valuable strategizing information.
HPI Market Data 2015 features detailed forecast
breakdowns for capital, maintenance and operating
expenditures in the following major industry areas.
Natural gas/LNG
Maintenance and equipment
The information has been compiled by industry
experts from data provided by governments and
private organizations. The data analyzed is broken
down by factors including geographic region, year,
demand and activity level.

2015 global forecast for capital, maintenance
and operating spending
New section on global construction and
investments in the refining, petrochemical and
gas processing/LNG sectors broken out by
region and country
Expanded editorial analysis of worldwide
economic, social and political trends driving
HPI activity across all sectors
An exploration of the changing markets
and demand within the global HPI,
with discussion of growing markets

Total spending
Latin America
Middle East
United States

Global oil energy market
New crude supplies
Global refining capacity
Present capacity
Product demand
United States
Future refinery investments
Middle East
Refinery integration
Saudi Arabia
Other ME nations
Chinese nocs
Struggles in the UK
Outlook for EU refining industry
Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS)
Latin America
Spending and projects

Global forecast
Unconventional natural gas
United States
Latin America
Middle East and Africa
Construction activity

Beyond 2014
Middle East
Refining/Petrochemical integration
Construction activity
Industry definitions

Process control outlook

A guide to chemical products
from hydrocarbons
HPI schematic


Fig. 1. Total new project announcements 20122014.
Fig. 2. Market share analysis of new project announcements,
Fig. 3. Total active projects by region and sector.
Fig. 4. Breakdown of 2014 HPI projects by activity level.
Fig. 5. Operating and proposed South African refineries.
Fig. 6. British Columbia LNG projects.
Fig. 7. European new project announcements, 20122014.
Fig. 8. Aerial view of Gazproms Sakhalin-2 LNG terminal.
Fig. 9. Night view of the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery.
Fig. 10. RasGas LNG Trains 1 through 7.
Fig. 11. Existing refineries and facilities under development in Iraq.
Table 1. Total active projects by region and sector
Table 2. 2015 worldwide HPI spending, billions $
Table 3. 2015 worldwide total spending by budget, billions $
Table 4. 2015 worldwide HPI capital spending, billions $
Table 5. 2015 worldwide HPI maintenance spending, billions $
Table 6. 2015 worldwide HPI operating spending, billions $
Table 7. Comparison between 2014 forecasted worldwide
total spending by budget and by actual spending
Table 8. Total announced downstream project investments
by region, 20142020
Table 9. Australian LNG projects under construction
Table 10. Additional major downstream Asia-Pacific projects
through 2021
Table 11. Russian LNG projects
Table 12. Major downstream construction projects in the CIS
Table 13. Initial and adjusted costs for major refinery projects
in Brazil
Table 14. Major downstream projects in Latin America
Table 15. Major methanol plant construction in the US

Fig. 1. Primary energy consumption by OECD and non-OECD nations,
Fig. 2. Oil production changes in 2013.
Fig. 3. Selected world oil prices, $/bbl.
Fig. 4. Average annual spot prices for Brent and WTI, 20022013.
Fig. 5. Oil consumption by OECD and non-OECD nations,
Fig. 6. Refining capacity by region and spare capacity in 2013.
Fig. 7. Global refining capacity and configurations.
Fig. 8. Global refinery utilization rates, 20032013.
Fig. 9. Global refinery utilization rates, 20132014.
Fig. 10. Regional refining margins, 20032013.
Fig. 11. Global refining margins, 20132014.
Fig. 12. US Gulf Coast cracking spread vs. WTI, 20132014.
Fig. 13. Rotterdam cracking spread vs. Dubai, 20132014.
Fig. 14. Singapore cracking spread vs. Brent, 20132014.
Fig. 15. Global refined product market demand in 2013, MMbpd.
Fig. 16. Global product demand, 2012 and 2035.
Fig. 17. Light distillate demand by region, 20032013.
Fig. 18. Middle distillate demand by region, 20032013.
Fig. 19. Projected IFO switch to diesel, 20152035.

Fig. 20. Number and operating capacity of US refineries,

Fig. 21. US refining capacity by PADD as of January 2012.
Fig. 22. US refinery and blending net production.
Fig. 23. Crude oil qualities for selected oil, sulfur content,
and API density.
Fig. 24. US exports of distillate fuel oil (015 ppm S), 20092013.
Fig. 25. Top net exporting and importing countries of petroleum
products in 2005 and 2012.
Fig. 26. US consumption changes and petroleum product
Fig. 27. Total US and Canadian light/medium crude oil production,
Fig. 28. Quality of US crude oil production, 20002020.
Fig. 29. The percentage of FCCUs processing shale oil.
Fig. 30. Displacement of US crude oil imports, 20082013.
Fig. 31. Canadian heavy crude oil supply, 20142025.
Fig. 32. Crude oil transportation costs: rail, pipeline and marine.
Fig. 33. Future refinery investment projects, 20132018.
Fig. 34. Assay comparison: tight vs. other crudes.
Fig. 35. New capacity additions for ME refineries and product
balanced, 20122018.
Fig. 36. HPI facilities in Saudi Arabia, including refineries,
petrochemical complexes, and ports and terminals.
Fig. 37. Total energy consumption in China by type, 2009.
Fig. 38. Distribution of Chinas major refineries
(capacity exceeding).
Fig. 39. Demand and supply balance for the Indian
refining industry.
Fig. 40. Location and capacity of Indias refineries.
Fig. 41. Growth rate of Indias refining industry, 20032017.
Fig. 42. Indian product demand, 20122022.
Fig. 43. Indias refining and petrochemical industries exhibit
deep integration to maximize the value of feedstocks
and end products.
Fig. 44. Europes refining network.
Fig. 45. EU oil product demand, 20002013.
Fig. 46. Proposed EU hydrocracker projects, 20112015.
Fig. 47. EU refining upgrades, 20082013.
Fig. 48. EU middle distillate market share: 2012 and 2030.
Fig. 49. Major planned expansions of the Brazilian refining capacity:
Table. 1. Crude oil demand by region: 20052013, MMbpd
Table 2. Crude oil distillation capacity by region:
20052013, MMbpd
Table 3. Worlds largest refineries, over 400 Mbpd capacity
Table 4. Refining throughput capacity by regions:
20052013, MMbpd
Table 5. Global refined product demand shares and growth,
Table 6. Refined product demand by region, 20122020
Table 7. Key refining configurations by nations, MMbpd
Table 8. Companies with US capacities exceeding 1 MMbpsd
Table 9. Individual refinery sizes20 largest US refineries
Table A. Nelsons complexity factor for refining processes
Table 10. Complexity and Nelson factor of the 10 largest
US refineries

Table 11. Shale crude vs. displaced light crude imports

Table 12. Refinery expansions for advantage oil
Table 13. New refining projects in Saudi Arabia
Table 14. HPI facilities in Saudi Arabia
Table 15. Additional Middle East projects
Table 16. Kuwaiti refineries current capacities and
future expansion plans
Table 17. Chinas notable refinery projects and expansions
Table 18. Chinese refineries with capacity exceeding 10 MMtpy
Table 19. Projected Indian capacity during the 12th Five-Year plan:
Table 20. Largest Russian refineries
Table 21. New refining project additions, 2012-2014
Table 22. Estimated 2015 refining spending budgets


Fig. 1. The US is rapidly growing in chemical projects this decade.

Fig. 2. The Houston Ship Channel is home to the PetroLogistics
plant, currently the only operating PDH plant in the US.
Fig. 3. Ethylene demand by end-use, 20002017.
Fig. 4. Real GDP growth in South America, 20122020.
Fig. 5. Expected GDP growth around the world, 20122020.
Fig. 6. Western European ethylene market outlook through 2017.
Fig. 7. Real GDP growth in Emerging Europe, 20122020.
Fig. 8. Chinas chemicals growth by decade, 20002020.
Fig. 9. Chinas march to self-sufficiency in ethylene production.
Fig. 10. Net ethylene demand by world region.
Fig. 11. Differences in ethylene feedstock costs.
Fig. 12. Sources of World GDP in 2013.
Fig. 13. Saudi Arabias chemicals growth by decade.
Fig. 14. Cash cost of select ethylene feeds.
Fig. 15. An integrated refinery/petrochemical complex.
Fig. 16. Block diagram of an ethane-based olefins unit.
Fig. 17. Block diagram of a naphtha-based olefins unit integrated
with a refinery.
Fig. 18. Petrochemical value chain.
Fig. 19. Most new additions to global ethylene supply are
Fig. 20. Real GDP growth in Asia-Pacific, 20102020.
Fig. 21. High demand is keeping Asian operating rates high.
Fig. 22. Cracking ethane produces fewer co-products.
FIG. A. The petrochemical sector of the hydrocarbon processing
FIG. B. Intermediate and consumer products based on ethylene.
FIG. C. Intermediate and consumer products based on methanol.
FIG. D. Intermediate and consumer products based on aromatics
Table 1. New projects in petrochemicals
Table 2. Planned new US ethylene crackers
Table 3. Planned US ethylene expansions
Table 4. Planned North America PDH projects
Table 5. Estimated 2015 petrochemical spending


Fig. 1. Composition of new capital investment by asset type.
Fig. 2. Causes of large losses by percent.
Fig. 3. Equipment involved in HPI losses by percent.
Fig. 4. End-user industry share of market, 2013 vs. 2014 (projected).
Fig. 5. Valve spending in the chemical and refining industries,
Table 1. Pumps used in HPI processes
Table 2. World demand for pumps 20062021, $MM
Table 3. European pump sales, $MM
Table 4. Compressor types and applications
Table 5. Common valve types


Fig. 1. Global gas production by region, 2013.

Fig. 2. Global gas demand per capita, 2013.
Fig. 3. Global gas demand by region, 2013.
Fig. 4. Global gas demand growth, 2013 vs. 10-year average.
Fig. 5. US gas demand growth, 20122013 vs. 10-year average.
Fig. 6. Pipeline gas and LNG trade flows, 2013.
Fig. 7. Global LNG imports, 2013.
Fig. 8. EIA-assessed shale gas and oil basins around the world,
January 2014.
Fig. 9. EU shale gas reserves, in 2012 years of domestic
Fig. 10. US gas production by source, 19902040.
Fig. 11. US proposed LNG export terminal projects.
Fig. 12. Competition for LNG export share, 20002030.
Fig. 13. Digital rendering of the Pacific NorthWest LNG facility
on Lelu Island, British Columbia.
Fig. 14. Three-dimensional computer rendering of the GNL
del Plata FSRU.
Fig. 15. Approximate share of Russias gas exports by destination.
Fig. 16. Existing, under-construction and planned LNG terminals
in Europe.
Fig. 17. LNG developers in East Africa.
Fig. 18. China shale gas and oil reserves assessment.
Fig. 19. Existing, under-construction and planned LNG projects
in Australia.
Fig. 20. Digital rendering of Shells Prelude FLNG platform.
Fig. 21. The GTL process.
Table 1. Top 10 countries with proven natural gas reserves
Table 2. Top 10 countries with technically recoverable
shale gas reserves
Table 3. Total worldwide gas processing projects
Table 4. New worldwide gas processing projects
Table 5. Commercial-scale GTL projects in operation around
the world
Table 6. Estimated 2015 gas processing spending


and Including
More Data
Than Ever

HPI Market Data 2015 is the hydrocarbon processing industrys most

trusted forecast of capital, maintenance and operating expenditures for
the petrochemical, rening and natural gas/LNG industries. Produced
annually by the editors of Hydrocarbon Processing and the Construction
Boxscore Database, and featuring data provided by governments
and private organizations, this comprehensive resource provides
comprehensive and top-level insight into HPI market trends, spending
and global construction activity.

The full version of the HPI Market Data 2015 features:

Global spending in the rening, petrochemical and gas processing sectors
104 pages with more than 50 tables and 100 gures, including information
and data collected from governments and private organizations
NEW! Global construction and investments in the rening, petrochemical
and gas processing/LNG sectors broken out by region and country
An exploration of the impact of local and national trends on spending
and activity
An exploration of changing markets and demand within the global HPI
with discussion of emerging markets
Expanded editorial analysis of worldwide economic, social and political
trends driving HPI activity across all sectors

Obtain the full version of the HPI Market Data 2015 to:
Plan strategically for 2015 and beyond
Recognize global and regional market trends
Locate new business opportunities
Discover how spending trends by sector will impact your company


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