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Monitoring and Evaluation of the

National Dog Population Management


and Rabies Control Program in Bhutan
Karma Rinzin, PhD Candidate
Murdoch University, Perth, Australia/
National Centre for Animal Health, Department of Livestock, Bhutan

Outline
Brief background
Bhutan and importance of dogs in Bhutanese society
Past dog population control initiatives
National Dog Population Management and Rabies
Control Project (NDPM & RCP)

Population dynamics and health status of free


roaming dogs in Bhutan (PhD project)
M & E of the NDPM & RCP

Background
BHUTAN

20
Dzongkhags
205
Geogs

Area= 40,000 sq km
6 agro ecological zones
Altitude = 200 to 7500 metres
Population: ~700,000

Dogs in Bhutanese society


Dogs are culturally and socially acceptable and
feeding of un-owned dogs is common
Feeding dogs is believe to earn good Karma.
In the cycle of rebirths dogs is closest to attaining
human birth.
Dogs perform useful functions
Guard crops from wild animals & for herding the
livestock in rural areas.
Dogs are kept as pets and companions as well as
for guarding the premises in the urban areas.

Free-Roaming (FR) Dogs


Dogs found in public places
irrespective of the level of
care and supervision
imposed upon them.
Many FR dogs in Bhutan
due to poor responsible
dog ownership, religious
taboo, legal back-up, fund
etc)

Problems caused by
free-roaming dogs
Rabies a common
problem in Bhutan
About 750 cases
reported in domestic
animal species in the
last decade
Human rabies ~ US$
70,000 annually

3 human cases in 2006


2 human cases in 2007
3 human cases in 2008
4 human cases in 2009
1 human case in 2010
5 human cases in 2011

Initiatives to control dog


population and rabies
Past Initiatives
Killing

Translocation

Impounding
Adhoc ABC & antirabies vaccination

Recent Initiative
National Dog Population
Management and Rabies
Control Project (NDPM &
RCP)
Implemented jointly by
HSI and RGOB through
Capture Neuter Vaccinate
Release (CNVR)
programme

Initiatives to control Dog population and Rabies


1970s -1980s

Poisoning
and Shooting

Failed due
to nonacceptable
and religious
issues

1990s

2000s

Translocation

Impounding

Created
animal
welfare and
social issue

Poor animal
welfare and
not
sustainable

Limited coverage/high incident of


Zoonosis

2009

NDPM &
RCP

Scientifically
approved
and socially
acceptable

2013

Mass Rabies
Vaccination

Coordinate
d effort to
reduce &
eliminated
Rabies

2014

CABC

Taking
owner
ship
(staff
involvem
ent)

High coverage/low incident of


Zoonosis/Involvement of all stake holder

National Dog Population Management


and Rabies Control Project
The joint CNVR programme implemented
by RGOB and & HSI
Pilot Project - Feb to June 2009
Phase 1 Sept 2009 to June 2012
Phase 2 July 2012 to June 2015
Sterilization & vaccination of male and
female dogs
Released on the same day
Ear notch used for identification
purposes

Capture Neuter Vaccinate and Release (CNVR) Programme

Other Initiative Legislation

Public Awareness

Achievement

Pilot project 2486 dogs


Phase 1 36987 dogs
Phase 2 (as of June 2014) 16470 dogs
CNVR undertaken in all Districts

Human
attitudes and
behaviour

Reproduction
capacity of
population
Assessing local dog
population
Size
Source
Problems
Welfare issues
KAP of communities
Past control strategies

Access to
resources

Policies and
Legislation

Resources
Manpower,
fund

Free-roaming
dog population
CNVR
programme
Stabilize dog
population, eliminate
rabies, address other
problems & improve
welfare of dogs

Monitoring &
Evaluation (M & E)
Monitor Size
Coverage
Indicator count
Health status
Trend - dog bite &
rabies cases

Population dynamics and health status of the


dog population in Bhutan
PhD Project
Literature Review

KAP
Survey

Dog Population
demography

Ethics Approval

Estimate dog
population

Habitat
studies

Health
status

M & E of
CNVR program

Goal - Revised Dog Population and Rabies Control Programme

92% heard of rabies


50% prevention by dog
vaccination
88% - stray dogs are a
problem to society

Euthanasia:
Yes 21%,
No = 30% &
Not sure 41%
Control options: ABC
72%, Impounding 7%

KAP
Survey:
521
households

77% - FR dogs threat


to public health

Source: 51% within


community
60% owned dogs
confined

57% - fed stray


dogs

Description of dog population


The demographic characteristics of dogs presented to CNVR
Programme (Based on 22,399 dogs presented to CNVR clinic
from July 2011 to June 2013)
Demographics

Owned dogs

Stray dogs

Sex ratio (Males: Females)

1.4:1

1.06:1

Age

73.5% are adults

73.4% are adults

Neuter status

32.7% neutered

15.7% neutered

Presence pf health problems


- Mange
- TVT
- Pyometra

2.6%
1.6%
0.3%
2.2%

6.9%
4.5%
1.2%
3.2%

Pregnancy status
- Foetal counts

7.0%
4.4 1.5

6.2%
5.2 1.6

Neutered females and percentage of


pregnant bitches

Description of dog population


The demographic characteristics of the owned dog population in
Bhutan (based on cross sectional survey of 1301 households)
Demographics

Urban (716)

Rural (585)

Proportion of HH with dogs

24.4%

40.8%

No. of dogs recorded

237

348

Dogs owned per dog owning HH 1.354

1.477

Dogs per HH

0.331

0.603

Human dog ratio

13.82

8.39

Sex ratio (Males: Females)

1.31:1

2.05:1

Age

78.5% are adults

85.3% are adults

Breed

54.4% Local

69.4% Local

Neuter status

39.7% neutered

64.3% neutered

Rabies vaccination

77.6% vaccinated

76.2% vaccinated

Purpose

60.6% Pet; 35.4%


Guard

20.2% Pet, 72.7% Guard

Population estimate of owned and


stray dogs
Owned dog population estimated by multiplying mean number of
dogs owned by each household from the survey by the number of
households.

Owned dog population in urban areas


0.331 43515 = 14403 dogs

Owned dog population in rural areas


0.603 84427 = 50909 dogs

Total dogs in Bhutan = 64,912


Owned dog human ratio = 1 : 10.12

Population estimate of owned and

stray dogs

Stray dog population estimated by multiplying mean number of


stray dogs per owned dogs. The mean number of stray dogs per
owned dog is estimated by dividing the number of stray dogs by
the owned dogs (based on number of stray and owned dogs
presented to the CNVR clinic from July 2011 to June 2013).

Stray dog population in urban area


1.581 14403 = 22,771 dogs

Stray dog population in rural area


0.503 50909 = 25,607 dogs

Total stray dogs in Bhutan = 48,378


Stray dog human ratio = 1 : 14.9
Overall dog human ration1 : 6.3

Density of owned and stray dogs

Density of owned dogs = 2.02


dogs per sq.km

Density of owned dogs = 1.46


dogs per sq.km

Thimphu with the area of 26 sq. km has a stray dog


population of 5856 dogs in September 2014 ,
which gives a density of 225.6 dogs per sq.km.

Habitat study: Map of Thimphu city (a) Image plot showing the freeroaming dog population density with the road networks
superimposed on this plot (b) Image plot showing the intensity of
buildings expressed as number of buildings per km2.

(a)

(b)

Map of Thimphu city (a) Image plot showing the free-roaming dog
population density. Superimposed on this plot are (a) point locations
of rubbish bins (yellow) and Temples (White) and (b) Meat shops
(Red) and Military camps (Blue)

(a)

(b)

Rhohat plot showing the density of dog sight points as a function of


Euclidean distance from (a) meat shops, (b) rubbish bins, (c) military
camps, (d) temples (e) buildings and (f) road networks

(a)

(d)

(b)

(e)

(c)

(f)

Monitoring and evaluation


Monitor the population size
CNVR coverage (population surveys)
Health status of neutered and entire dogs
Public attitudes and perceptions before and
after the interventions
Trend in dog bites and rabies cases

Estimated number of surviving ear-notched dogs, the total freeroaming dog population and the percentage of ear-notched dogs out
of all total sighted dogs in Thimphu (June 2009 September 2014)

Comparison of the population estimate of freeroaming dogs in Thimphu using different methods
Mark-resight survey
Lincoln Petersen Index

Mark-resight survey
Proportion of
permanently
marked dogs

Rapid survey and


detection
probability

1 2
=

1 = Marked dogs

2 = number sighted

during second count


= number resighted

= No. of surviving

ear notched dogs


= proportion of ear
notched dogs

= No. of dogs

sighted - rapid survey


= proportion of
marked dogs

Population estimate of free-roaming dogs


Population estimate of dog population in Thimphu city using Lincoln
Petersen formula.
Thromdey

Marked (n1) Count (n2) Recaptured (m) Population (95% CI)

Bapisa

267

323

202

Changbangdu

521

778

376 1078 (1037 - 1119)

Norzin

298

357

150

709 (649 - 769)

Changangkha

190

179

112

303 (281 - 325)

Motithang

155

190

134

219 (212 - 226)

Kawang Jungshina
TabaDechenchoeling

353

537

283

669 (645 - 693)

244

257

153

409 (384 - 434)

2028

2621

Total

426 (408 - 445)

1410 3817 (3743 - 3891)

Population estimate of free-roaming dogs


Monitoring of population trend in Thimphu city based on the
population survey of the free-roaming dogs at frequent interval.
Survey
(Month &
Year)

Surviving Notched Total Percent


dogs notche
notched
dogs
d
dogs
sighted sighted

Estimated
Population
(95% CI)

June 2009

2399

903

1945 46.4

5167 (4836 - 5502)

June 2011
January
2012

2191

1009

2778 36.3

6033 (5644 - 6430)

2950

828

1618 51.2

5765 (5438 - 6131)

May 2013
August
2013

3200

1410

2621 53.8

5949 (5669 - 6273)

4474

1642

2151 76.3

5861 (5637 - 6094)

Sept. 2014

3691

903

1335 67.6

5856 (5573 - 6157)

Estimated number of surviving ear-notched dogs, the total freeroaming dog population and the percentage of ear-notched dogs out
of all total sighted dogs in Thimphu (June 2009 September 2014)

Proportion of ear notched dogs in Thimphu


from June 2009 to Sept 2014

Population estimate from the detection


probability and rapid survey (August 2013)
Thimphu city divided into 15
wards (7 blue & 8 red)
MR survey in blue wards
Detection probability 0.491 (95%
CI 0.460 0.520)
Estimate pop in blue ward (MR is
1137
Estimated in red wards
(1635/0.491) = 3330
Total = 4467 (95% CI 4187 4798)

Which method to choose


Method

Estimate (95% CI)

Remarks

Recapture of permanently
marked dogs (May 2013)

5949 (5669 6273)

Record of number of dogs


sterilized, date and place
received. Quick if we know
the annual survival rates of
ear notched dogs

Lincoln-Petersen Index (May


2013)

3817 (3743 -3891)

Requires marking of dogs


Chances of under
estimating the population
size as less active dogs are
likely to be marked and
resighted.

Recapture of permanently
marked dogs (Aug 2013)

5861 (5637 6094)

Apply this method if above


details are available.

Detection probability and


rapid survey (August 2013)

4467 (4187 4798)

Need to do mark-resight
survey. Apply this method
if there are no above
details or those places
without CNVR programme

Comparison of the population estimate of freeroaming dogs in Thimphu using different methods
Mark-resight survey
Lincoln Petersen Index

Mark-resight survey
Proportion of
permanently
marked dogs

Rapid survey and


detection
probability

1 2
=

1 = Marked dogs

2 = number sighted

during second count


= number resighted

= No. of surviving

ear notched dogs


= proportion of ear
notched dogs

= No. of dogs

sighted - rapid survey


= proportion of ear
notched dogs

Project monitoring: Percentage of free-roaming dogs vaccinated and


neutered in the main towns of six selected districts as of 31st January
2012.

Project monitoring: Percentage of lactating females and puppies


sighted in the main towns of the six selected districts as of 31st
January 2012.

Comparing the health status of sterilized and sexually


intact dogs

Proportion of neutered and entire dogs that are positive to CPV,


CDV, in three body condition score categories and in three skin
condition categories.

Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% CI from multivariate logistic


regression models of factors associated with CPV, CDV and
health status (body and skin condition) of dogs.

Comparison of dogs neutered (owned and stray) and humans (a) dog
bites and (b) rabies outbreak in animals from July 2008 to June 2013.

(a)

(b)

M & E NDPM & RCP (Immediate)


Field population surveys
Google Maps and android phone
apps / OSM Tracker app
Recording dog type as male
notched, female notched, male unnotched, female un-notched,
puppies, lactating females etc.
Will be undertaken in all urban
areas which will be repeated every
six months using the same tract.
Estimate the stray dog population

M & E NDPM & RCP (Immediate)


Cross sectional household
KAP survey
To determine the changes in
knowledge, attitudes and
behaviours of communities
following the interventions

Owned dog survey


Estimate the CNVR coverage
To determine the proportion of
owned dogs that free-roaming
To describe owned dog
demography

Acknowledgements