You are on page 1of 10

Jim Duncan's Market Report

market update
CHARLOTTESVILLE
22903

Current prices for homes on the market


Trends in pricing
Current levels of supply and demand
Value metrics

Report for the week of


Sunday February 21, 2010

Presented by Jim Duncan


434-242-7140
RealCentralVA.com/Nest Realty Group
www.RealCentralVA.com - jim@realcentralva.com

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved


www.altosresearch.com
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

City Overview CHARLOTTESVILLE


Real-Time Market Profile Trend THIS WEEK
Median List Price $ 329,900 The median single family home price
Average List Price $ 577,111 in CHARLOTTESVILLE this week is
Least Expensive Listing $ 46,700 $329,900. The 638 homes have been on
Most Expensive Listing $ 14,950,000 the market for an average of 148 days.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 170
Average Days on Market 148
Total Inventory 638
Absorbed This Week* 119
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 23 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 8%
Percent Flip (price increased) 3%
Median House Size (sq ft) 2,210 Demand measured by the Market
Median Lot Size 0.25 - 0.50 acre
Action Index is increasing and days-on-
Median Number of Bedrooms 3.8
market is trending downward. Even as
Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0
Median Age more properties come available, these
26
Altos Research Value Statistics are positive trends for the market.
Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 29
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply
relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor
the seller. See the section below for full details.

Trend Key QUARTILES


Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend To get a tightly targeted understanding
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. of homes in the market, we break each
Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties
sold.
locale into quartiles. Each quartile is
25% of the homes listed.
Characteristics per Quartile
Med. Med. Ab- Avg.
Quart Median Price Sqft. Med. Lot Size Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 810,000 3,504 1.0 - 2.5 acres 4.0 4.0 19 159 5 24 166 Most expensive 25% of homes
0.25 - 0.50
2 $ 399,000 2,431 acre 4.0 3.0 9 159 12 26 121 Upper-middle 25% of homes
0.25 - 0.50
3 $ 289,900 1,872 acre 3.0 3.0 17 160 9 29 139 Lower-middle 25% of homes
8,001 - 10,000
4 $ 196,450 1,261 sq ft 3.0 2.0 22 160 7 40 166 Least expensive 25% of homes

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend


graphs below.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 2


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE
Again this week we see a downward
notch for prices. Prices continue to pull
back from the market's highs. The
Market Action Index is a good leading
indicator for the durability of this
trend.

QUARTILE PRICES
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Not surprisingly, given the condition of
the overall market, all quartiles have
shown price strength in recent weeks.
All have been increasing in price lately.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 3


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE AND VALUE


The market appears to be placing an
increasing premium on homes. When
list prices and price per square foot
consistently increase in tandem, as
they're doing now, you can often find
short-term investment opportunities.
Watch the Market Action Index for
persistent changes as a leading
indicator for these trends to flatten or
drop.

INVENTORY
Inventory has been climbing lately.
Note that rising inventory alone does
not signal a weakening market. Look to
the Market Action Index and Days on
Market trends to gauge whether buyer
interest is keeping up with available
supply.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 4


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be MARKET ACTION INDEX
characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index
falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward The CHARLOTTESVILLE market is
correction. currently in the Buyer's Market zone
(below 30), though not strongly so. The
90-day Market Action Index stands this
week at 29 so buyers should expect find
reasonable levels of selection.

Home sales have been exceeding new


inventory for several weeks. While still
a Buyer's market, prices seem to have
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a responded by moving upward. If the
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. demand trends continue, expect prices
to keep marching upward, especially
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")
because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will once we see a Seller's Market.
typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold
Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at
the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES


Three of the four quartiles of the market
are in the Buyer's Market zone with
several months of inventory given the
current rate of demand for homes in the
quartile. Notice that Quartile 4 (the
lowest price group) is showing stronger
demand than the others. Buyers seem to
be placing emphasis on the easiest
entry point in the market.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price
range?"

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 5


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)


The properties have been on the
market for an average of 148 days. Half
of the listings have come newly on the
market in the past 112 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE


It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take longer
to sell than those in the lower
quartiles.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 6


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

CHARLOTTESVILLE
Neighborhood Detail 22903

Real-Time Market Profile Trend


Median List Price $ 349,450 THIS WEEK
Average List Price $ 527,280 The median single family home price
Least Expensive Listing $ 99,900 in CHARLOTTESVILLE 22903 this
Most Expensive Listing $ 6,160,000 week is $349,450.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 177
Average Days on Market 143
Total Inventory 172
Absorbed This Week 66
Median House Size (sq ft) 2,187 Demand measured by the Market
Median Lot Size 0.25 - 0.50 acre
Action Index is increasing and days-on-
Median Number of Bedrooms 3.7
market is trending downward. Even as
Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0
Median Age more properties come available, these
38
Altos Research Value Statistics are positive trends for the market.
Market Action Index Warm Seller's Market 32

PRICE
Recently prices in this zip have settled
at a plateau even though they dipped
this week. Look for a persistent up-shift
in the Market Action Index before we
see prices significantly move from these
levels.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 7


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE PER QUARTILE


In the quartile market segments, we see
pricing across most of this zip code
relatively strong recently. While
Quartile 3 is basically flat, all other
segments are in an up trend period.
Unless the Market Action Index has a
persistent downward shift, expect that
Quartile 3 will assume a similar trend
with the other groups.

Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES


Med. Ab- Avg.
Quart Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 865,000 3,881 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 4.0 6 43 1 19 156 Most expensive 25% of homes
0.25 - 0.50
2 $ 459,500 2,432 acre 4.0 3.0 17 43 6 17 148 Upper-middle 25% of homes
0.25 - 0.50
3 $ 299,900 1,900 acre 3.0 3.0 35 43 1 18 115 Lower-middle 25% of homes
8,001 - 10,000
4 $ 209,900 1,434 sq ft 3.0 2.0 54 43 6 12 152 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE
While prices have been basically flat,
the price per square foot has been
heading downward. While not a sign of
broad strength in a market, larger
homes are coming more available and
buyers are tending to get more home
for their money.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 8


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

INVENTORY
Inventory has been climbing lately with
172 properties available this week. Note
that rising inventory alone does not
signal a weakening market. Look to the
Market Action Index to gauge whether
buyer interest is keeping up with
available supply.

MARKET ACTION INDEX


The CHARLOTTESVILLE 22903 market is
currently mildly in the 'Seller's Market'
zone (greater than 30). The 90-day
Market Action Index stands at 32 which
indicates that demand is reasonably
strong but available supply of new
listings does not get snapped up
immediately.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES


Higher-end homes in the area
(Quartiles 1 and 2) are in the Buyer's
Market zone with several months of
inventory given the current levels of
demand. The low-end of the market is
where buyers are focusing more of their
attention.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 9


Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET
The properties have been on the market
for an average of 142 days. Half of the
listings have come newly on the market
in the past 91 or so days. Watch the 90-
day DOM trend for signals of a changing
market.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon for


the higher priced homes in an area
(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to
sell than those in the lower quartiles.

About Altos Research Corporation


Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across
the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to
the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the
best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate
decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos
Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a
licensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE 10