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Multi-variate Analysis of National Scale

Hydrologic Simulations & Predictions: NFIE 2015
NCAR: D. Gochis, A. Dugger, L. Pan, W. Yu, K. Sampson, J.
McCreight, Y. Zhang, D. Yates
U. Texas-Austin: M. Somos, F. Salas, D. Maidment
U. Arizona: T. Lahmers; U. Iowa: M. ElSaadani
Jul. 16, 2015

Hydrologic Prediction with the
Community WRF-Hydro System

air • planet •

Outline:
• NFIE Operational Workflow and Model
Configuration
• NFIE Model Evaluation:



Verification tools & data
Model correlation & bias
Precipitation bias
Process evaluation

Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro
System

air • planet • people

: NHDPlus support NSF XSEDE/TACC/Yellowstone supercomputing support for R&D and operational model runs Cedric David: RAPID upgrade and support BYU-Tethys: Operational display CUAHSI/NSF-Hydrology/EarthCube & NOAA/NWC. Alabama and NWC: Local host NSSL: development and provision of real-time radar data ESRL&NCEP: high resolution data assimilation & NWP forecasts Unidata: real-time data service USGS/EPA/Horizon.Acknowledgements: A big team! • • • • • • • • • U. many local institutions: Sponsorship Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people . Inc.

NFIE-2015 System Configurations Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people .

ESRI.3.2 and 1km land model grids all feasible Water Mgt. NCAR. Collaborators: UT-Austin. Goal: Produce real-time flood information on the NHDPlus river network as inputs for FEMA flood mapping 2. NWS-OHD. Microsoft 3. netCDF to NHD+ River flow in the Mississippi River Basin Data Services RAPID NHDPlus Channel Flow Source: http://rapid-hub.org/ Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System Modeled and observed streamflow air • planet • people . WRF-Hydro and RAPID codes set up on UT-Austin ‘stampede’ system 4. Unidata. Mapping of land model grid runoff to NHDPlus2 catchments defined a priori using ArcGIS tools 5. CUAHSI. Benchmark model runs with 4.WRF-Hydro/RAPID for the Community National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) Operational MRMS QPE and HRRR QPF Experimental WRF-Hydro 1.

NFIE Forecasting Workflow: 1. WRF-Hydro Forcing Data Engine: Forcing data regridding using ESMF regridding tools and NCAR/ncl scripts…. Texas TACC (‘stampede’) 5. Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people . Land Model Spinup: WRF-Hydro/NoahMP driven by 5 years of regridded NLDAS forcing with GFS model background 3. WRF-Hydro Forcing Data Engine: Acquire real-time feed of NSSL/NCEP MRMS (Unidata LDM) and ESRL-HRRR (ftp) 4. Model Upgrade and Implementation: RAPID and WRF-Hydro/NoahMP 2. Model Execution: WRF-Hydro/NoahMP on ‘stampede’…. Conversion of netcdf gridded runoff from WRF-Hydro/NoahMP to NHDPlusv2 reach-based channel inflows for RAPID using tailored ArcGIS geo-processing scripts 7.provide gridded runoff and water balance variables in netcdf format 6. Model Execution: RAPID on ‘stampede’…provide reach (point) netcdf output of river flow on NHDPlus network….Transfer data to NSF XSEDE/U.

IRODS data service: Data shipped to RNCI every 3 hrs (forcings. channel flows) 8.NFIE Forecasting Workflow: (continued…) 7. gridded runoff. Tethys Web Application: Upload to CKAN server at BYU (visualization and discovery) Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people .

NFIE WRF-Hydro/NoahMP Set-up: • NHDPlusV2-Encompassing Domain • 3km NoahMP land model only: – No terrain routing (only offline channel routing by RAPID) – No reservoirs – 2011 NLCD land cover type – NRCS STATSGO. 1km soils – Climatological vegetation structure • Spin-up: 5 year 2010-2014 continuous run: – Regridded NLDAS2/GFS background – Downscaling of T/RH/SW/Press. is now underway for sensitivity testing… Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people .

2011 NLCD Land cover specification Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people .NFIE Evaluations: 5-yr Benchmark Evaluation Using ‘rwrfhydro’ • 2001 USGS vs.

U. TexasXSEDE ‘stampede’. LW. sensible heat flux. precipitation. evaporation. 3km NoahMP – No routing (default NFIE configuration): ~9 min wall clock for 14 hr simulation time • RAPID Runtime: – 1. surface skin temperature Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people . with emphasis on water budget: • NHPlus Channel Flows from RAPID • SW. snow depth.5 minutes for one 14 hr forecast cycle on one node (16 cores) • Model output is thinned to following variables. snow water equivalent. surface runoff. soil moisture (4 layers). ground heat flux.NFIE Default Set-up Computational Requirement: • WRF-Hydro/NoahMP Runtime: 128 cores. transpiration. subsurface runoff.

Verification Tool Description Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • people .

http://www.ral.com/mccreigh/rwrfhydro.Verification tools and data: ‘rwrfhydro’ • Verification data: – Streamflow: • USGS Gauges-II dataset • Minimally humanimpacted – Precipitation: • GHCN data • SNOTEL – Ameriflux Network • ET (pending) https://github.edu/projects/wrf_hydro/ Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .ucar.

Model Evaluation & Benchmarking: Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

NFIE-2015 WRF-Hydro/NoahMP & RAPID Model Analysis: MRMS-driven runs… Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

and Northern Plains Improved performance with RAPID routing in Eastern and Central US Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • . Central US Fairly good correlations in Eastern US (Appalachian) Poor correlations in the Rockies. arid Southwest.Streamflow Correlations at GAGES-II Reference Basins WRF-Hydro/NoahMP • • • • WRF-Hydro/NoahMP/RAPID Good correlations in the Pacific NW.

Streamflow Correlations at GAGES-II Reference Basins WRF-Hydro/NoahMP WRF-Hydro/NoahMP/RAPID • RAPID channel routing shows significant improvements over LSM-only at the hourly timescale Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

Streamflow Bias at GAGES-II Reference Basins WRF-Hydro/NoahMP/RAPID • • • • Generally low bias in the West (likely too early snowmelt) High bias in the Southeast and Central US Smaller biases in the Northeast How much is due to precipitation forcing and how much is due to the model? Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

Streamflow Performance at GAGES-II Reference Basins: Successes! Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

Streamflow Performance at GAGES-II Reference Basins: Problem Areas Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

NFIE-2015 WRF-Hydro/NoahMP & RAPID Process Evaluation Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

Process Evaluation: Fixing Snow Biases for Streamflow Forecasting Applications Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

Process Evaluation: Lateral Routing and Reservoir Storage WRF-Hydro v. USGS Streamflow Ocheyedan River Near Spencer. IA 0605000 m3/s USGS Gauge NFIE-Hydro WRF-Hydro Images courtesy of Mohamed ElSaadani & Timothy Lahmers Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

consistent with Iowa findings Addition of reservoir storage on the Guadalupe River in TX Image courtesy of Fernando Salas & Marcelo Somos Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .Process Evaluation: Lateral Routing and Reservoir Storage Impact of lateral routing on Fourmile Creek in CO.

insufficient infiltration? Intermountain West…. SW and north Plains • Most regions have significant biases…. NM.Summary • In most cases simulated uncalibrated NoahMP runoff is very ‘flashy’ compared to observed streamflow…why? – Lack of routing processes • Most regions of US show reasonable correlation….problems in southern Rockies. AZ)… lack of channel losses.Why? – – – – Precipitation bias propagation? SW (Texas. early melt-out snow bias (largely fixed) Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • . non-contributing areas? Piedmont. Florida….

NFIE-2015 WRF-Hydro/NoahMP Preliminary Forcing Data Analysis Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • .

the CMC/CPC North American analysis. NOAA) MRMS bias as compared to GHCN gage data (200 points shown) Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • . and NLDAS2 (courtesy of David Kitzmiller.NFIE Evaluations: Real-time outputs MRMS Precipitation Bias (HRRR evaluation in progress…) MRMS bias as compared to reference precip constructed from StageIV.

S. particularly for slow. is significant and MRMS while improved likely faces challenges Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • . subsurface processes – Forcing uncertainty in the western U.Summary • Things to consider – NFIE runs are largely uncalibrated – Land model only runs without terrain routing can significantly affect the timescale of runoff responses and hydrograph structure – Catchment aggregation and direct translation of soil column water can have significant shortcomings.

Next Step: National Water Prediction Model Configurations WRF-Hydro IOC Configurations Analysis & Assimilation Short-Range ‘Flood Prediction’ Medium Range ‘Flow Prediction’ Long Range ‘Water Resources’ 3-Hourly Daily ~Daily (x16) 0-2 days 0-10 days 0-30 days 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1 km/catchment /NHDPlus Reach Short-range + Downscaled GFS Downscaled & bias-corrected CFS • planet • Cycling Frequency Hourly Forecast Duration . Prediction Hydrologic with the Community WRF-Hydro System air .3 hrs Spatial Discretization & Routing 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach Meteorological Forcing MRMS blend/ Downscaled HRRR /RAP/NAM blend HRRR-NAM bkgnd.

edu WRF-Hydro: http://www.edu A. D.Thank you. NASA-IDS. gochis@ucar.ucar. Gochis. NOAA-OHD.ral. adugger@ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro/ Funding for WRF-Hydro provided by: NSF. DOE-ESM Hydrologic Prediction with the Community WRF-Hydro System air • planet • . Dugger.