Spencer_forSARA2003

A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

-10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

10.00
Embankment

xn

5.00
0.00

Ei

ybot

-5.00

slope angle

10

hc

11
12
13

27

1.73

10

Pw Mw
15

61.518

yc

0.2

4.91

7.95

R
13.40

xmin xmax
-5.89

xn

17.467
'

x0

= sin

( x ix 0 )

( x n x 0)

'

Lx

### #VALUE! 0.012

###

12.12

###

### #VALUE! 0.025

###

11.24

###

### #VALUE! 0.038

###

10.30

1.37

###

### #VALUE! 0.050

###

9.32

1.25

###

### #VALUE! 0.062

###

8.34

###

1.17

###

### #VALUE! 0.072

###

7.36

0.496

###

1.12

###

### #VALUE! 0.082

###

6.38

###

0.415

###

1.07

###

### #VALUE! 0.090

###

5.40

###

0.336

###

1.04

###

### #VALUE! 0.096

###

4.42

###

0.259

###

1.02

###

### #VALUE! 0.101

###

3.43

###

###

0.184

###

1.00

###

### #VALUE! 0.103

###

2.45

###

###

###

0.110

###

0.99

###

### #VALUE! 0.105

###

1.47

###

###

###

###

0.037

###

0.98

###

### #VALUE! 0.104

###

0.49

###

###

###

### -0.037

###

0.98

###

### #VALUE! 0.101

###

-0.49

-5.31

###

###

###

###

-0.110

###

0.99

###

### #VALUE! 0.097

###

-1.47

-5.13

###

###

###

### -0.184

###

1.00

###

### #VALUE! 0.091

###

-2.45

0.98

-4.87

###

###

###

### -0.259

###

1.02

###

### #VALUE! 0.083

###

-3.43

18

0.00

-4.53

###

###

###

### -0.336

###

1.04

###

### #VALUE! 0.074

###

-4.42

19

-0.98

-4.10

###

###

###

### -0.415

###

1.07

###

### #VALUE! 0.064

###

-5.40

20

-1.96

-3.56

###

###

###

### -0.496

###

1.12

###

### #VALUE! 0.053

###

-6.38

21

-2.94

-2.92

###

###

###

### -0.582

###

1.17

###

### #VALUE! 0.040

###

-7.36

22

-3.93

-2.14

###

###

###

### -0.673

###

1.25

###

### #VALUE! 0.027

###

-8.34

23

-4.91

-1.18

###

###

###

### -0.770

###

1.37

###

### #VALUE! 0.014

###

-9.32

24

-5.89

0.00

###

###

###

### -0.879

###

1.54

###

### #VALUE! 0.000

###

-10.30

16

17.47

3.27

###

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

16.58

1.37

###

###

###

30

###

1.136

###

2.10

###

15.70

0.00

###

###

###

30

###

0.997

###

1.63

14.72

-1.18

###

###

###

###

0.879

###

1.54

13.74

-2.14

###

###

###

###

0.770

###

12.76

-2.92

###

###

###

###

0.673

###

11.78

-3.56

###

###

###

###

0.582

10.79

-4.10

###

###

###

###

9.81

-4.53

###

###

###

8.83

-4.87

###

###

###

10

7.85

-5.13

###

###

###

11

6.87

-5.31

###

###

12

5.89

-5.42

###

13

4.91

-5.46

14

3.93

-5.42

15

2.94

16

1.96

17

50

###

Center of Rotation

W rad

Varying

Varying side-force angle

Pi

Undrained shear strength profile of soft clay

depth
(m)
0
1.5
3
5
7
10
cu
40
28
20
20
26
37 (kPa)
clay
16

(kN/m3)

15

0.000

25

0
2
Depth

46
47
48
49

Forces

framed
framed cells
cells contain
contain equations
equations

ybot ytop ave

1.287

Array formulas

45

1.287

#VALUE!

15

44

P
Q
DumEq

Ti

xc

0.105

ru

Units: m, kN/m3, kN/m2, kN,

or other consistent set of units.

14

43

Ei-1

-10.00

i-1Ei-1

Wi

iEi

Soft clay

SPENCER method

x0

ytop

4
6
8
10

cu (kPa)

50

Embankment
cm m
10

30

(kPa)

( o)

Depth
Spencer_forSARA2003

4
6
8

A
51

10

cu (kPa)

Spencer_forSARA2003

R
1
2
3
Varying

4
1
5
6
7
8

Varying side-force angle

10
11 x0
12
( x ix
0)
'
= sin
13

( x n x 0 )
14
15

Ly

16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

5.63
7.26
8.54
9.61
10.47
11.19
11.78
12.26
12.64
12.95
13.17
13.31
13.39
13.39
13.31
13.17
12.95
12.64
12.26
11.78
11.19
10.47
9.61
8.54

43
Embankment
m
44
45

20

46 (kN/m3)
47
48
49
50

Spencer_forSARA2003

R
51

from Spencer_forSARA2003

SPENCER: Search for

noncircular slip surface

-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
-15.00
-5.00
5.00
15.00
x

Embankment
10

xn

yt

y5t
0
initial
-5

iEi

yb

critical

slope angle

hc

27

1.73

w
10

Pw Mw
15

62.321

yb

yt ave

ru

xc

yc

0.2

8.00

8.00

W rad

1.253

Forces M
###

1.253

Varying

###

Pi
xn
'

= sin

framed
framed cells contain
contain equations
equations

0.103

DumEq

Varying side-force angle

Ti

Center of Rotation

Units: m, kN/m3, kN/m2, kN,

or other consistent set of units.

Array formulas

Ei

Soft clay

-10

i-1Ei-1
Ei-1

Wi

x0

( x ix 0 )

( x n x 0 )

Lever arms

'

Lx

Ly

### 0.016

###

9.47

5.53

### 0.031

###

8.29

7.16

###

### 0.044

###

7.21

8.47

###

###

### 0.055

###

6.23

9.39

###

###

### 0.066

###

5.25

10.24

1.22

###

###

### 0.076

###

4.27

11.00

###

1.18

###

###

### 0.084

###

3.29

11.69

###

1.16

###

###

### 0.091

###

2.30

12.32

l P

18.07

3.27

###

16.88

1.68

###

###

###

30

###

0.931

###

1.98

###

###

15.70

0.00

###

###

###

30

###

0.958

###

2.06

###

###

14.72

-0.95

###

###

###

###

0.767

###

1.36

###

13.74

-1.84

###

###

###

###

0.738

###

1.33

12.76

-2.63

###

###

###

###

0.682

###

1.26

11.78

-3.37

###

###

###

###

0.641

###

10.79

-4.01

###

###

###

###

0.583

9.81

-4.63

###

###

###

###

0.562

15.00 0.000

8.83

-5.15

###

###

###

###

0.484

###

1.11

###

###

### 0.097

###

1.32

12.89

10

7.85

-5.52

###

###

###

###

0.360

###

1.05

###

###

### 0.100

###

0.34

13.33

11

6.87

-5.78

###

###

###

###

0.261

###

1.02

###

###

### 0.103

###

-0.64

13.65

12

5.89

-5.94

###

###

###

###

0.168

###

1.00

###

###

### 0.103

###

-1.62

13.86

13

4.91

-6.02

###

###

###

###

0.076

###

0.98

###

###

### 0.102

###

-2.60

13.98

14

3.93

-6.00

###

###

###

### -0.019

###

0.98

###

###

### 0.099

###

-3.58

14.01

15

2.94

-5.88

###

###

###

### -0.121

###

0.99

###

###

### 0.094

###

-4.57

13.94

16

1.96

-5.65

###

###

###

### -0.233

###

1.01

###

###

### 0.088

###

-5.55

13.76

17

0.98

-5.28

###

###

###

### -0.360

###

1.05

###

###

### 0.081

###

-6.53

13.46

18

0.00

-4.73

###

###

###

### -0.507

###

1.12

###

###

### 0.072

###

-7.51

13.00

19

-0.98

-4.08

###

###

###

### -0.587

###

1.18

###

###

### 0.062

###

-8.49

12.41

20

-1.96

-3.39

###

###

###

### -0.615

###

1.20

###

###

### 0.051

###

-9.47

11.73

21

-2.94

-2.61

###

###

###

### -0.668

###

1.25

###

###

### 0.039

###

-10.45

11.00

22

-3.93

-1.81

###

###

###

### -0.684

###

1.27

###

###

### 0.026

###

-11.43

10.21

23

-4.91

-0.93

###

###

###

### -0.734

###

1.32

###

###

### 0.013

###

-12.42

9.37

24

-5.89

0.00

###

###

###

### -0.757

###

1.35

###

###

### 0.000

###

-13.40

8.46

Undrained shear strength profile of soft clay

depth
0
1.5
3
5
7
10 (m)
cu
40
28
20
20
26
37 (kPa)

25

10

depth

16

(kN/m )
3

4
6
8

10

30

20

(kPa) (o) (kN/m3)

clay

50

Embankment
cm m m

cu (kPa)

from Spencer_forSARA2003

Ka
0.33

hc
1.73205

Read the Low (2003) paper "Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability

Analysis", downloadable from http://alum.mit.edu/www/bklow.
For hands-on:
(1) Click the button "InitialCircle"
(2) Invoke Solver (Menu bar: Tools/Solver); click Solve. Then click OK to
accept the solution found. May run Solver one more time.

xmin xmax
-18.12

15.37

-2.944

17.028

-15.180

-1.661

xc

yc

-2

18.00

xi

ybi

yti

EquilCheck

15.37

3.27

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

14.75

1.40

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

14.12

0.00

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

12.66

-2.45

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

11.19

-4.25

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

9.73

-5.66

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

8.26

-6.79

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

6.80

-7.70

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

5.33

-8.44

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

3.86

-9.02

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

2.40

-9.45

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

0.93

-9.76

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-0.53

-9.94

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-2.00

-10.00

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-3.47

-9.94

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-4.93

-9.76

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-6.40

-9.45

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-7.86

-9.02

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-9.33

-8.44

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-10.80

-7.70

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-12.26

-6.79

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-13.73

-5.66

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-15.19

-4.25

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-16.66

-2.45

#VALUE!

### #VALUE!

-18.12

0.00

#VALUE!

from Spencer_forSARA2003

-10

-5
0
10.00

xn

5.00

10

15

Embankment

x0

SPENCER: Search for

noncircular slip surface

25

yt

yt

0.00

20

iEi

initial

yb

-5.00

Soft clay

-10.00

27

slope angle

l Ti

hc

Pw Mw

ru

xc

yc

1.78

10

15.869 66.455

0.2

8.00

8.00

yb

yt ave

W rad

1.000

Forces M
###

1.000

Varying

###

Pi

xn

=' sin

framed
framed cells
cells contain
contain equations
equations

0.098

DumEq

Varying side-force angle

Center of Rotation

Units: m, kN/m3, kN/m2, kN,

or other consistent set of units.

Array formulas

Ei

critical

Wi i-1EEi-1
i-1

x0

( x ix 0 )

( x n x 0 )

Lever arms

'

Lx

Ly

### 0.015

###

8.71

5.56

### 0.029

###

7.68

7.17

###

### 0.041

###

6.72

8.43

###

###

### 0.052

###

5.83

9.27

###

###

### 0.062

###

4.94

10.06

1.12

###

###

### 0.071

###

4.04

10.77

###

1.08

###

###

### 0.079

###

3.15

11.41

###

1.07

###

###

### 0.086

###

2.26

12.01

l P

17.22

3.22

###

16.19

1.66

###

###

### 30.949

###

0.990

###

1.87

###

###

15.17

0.00

###

###

### 30.949

###

1.016

###

1.95

###

###

14.28

-0.86

###

###

###

###

0.769

###

1.24

###

13.38

-1.69

###

###

###

###

0.744

###

1.21

12.49

-2.43

###

###

###

###

0.697

###

1.16

11.60

-3.11

###

###

###

###

0.648

###

10.71

-3.72

###

###

###

###

0.600

9.81

-4.30

###

###

###

###

0.578

15.87 0.000

8.92

-4.79

###

###

###

###

0.505

###

1.02

###

###

### 0.091

###

1.37

12.55

10

8.03

-5.14

###

###

###

###

0.370

###

0.96

###

###

### 0.095

###

0.47

12.97

11

7.14

-5.37

###

###

###

###

0.256

###

0.92

###

###

### 0.097

###

-0.42

13.26

12

6.24

-5.53

###

###

###

###

0.174

###

0.91

###

###

### 0.098

###

-1.31

13.45

13

5.35

-5.62

###

###

###

###

0.097

###

0.90

###

###

### 0.097

###

-2.20

13.57

14

4.46

-5.63

###

###

###

###

0.016

###

0.89

###

###

### 0.094

###

-3.10

13.63

15

3.57

-5.57

###

###

###

### -0.069

###

0.89

###

###

### 0.090

###

-3.99

13.60

16

2.67

-5.43

###

###

###

### -0.162

###

0.90

###

###

### 0.084

###

-4.88

13.50

17

1.78

-5.18

###

###

###

### -0.268

###

0.93

###

###

### 0.077

###

-5.77

13.30

18

0.89

-4.78

###

###

###

### -0.424

###

0.98

###

###

### 0.069

###

-6.66

12.98

19

0.00

-4.17

###

###

###

### -0.600

###

1.08

###

###

### 0.059

###

-7.56

12.47

20

-0.90

-3.41

###

###

###

### -0.703

###

1.17

###

###

### 0.048

###

-8.45

11.79

21

-1.79

-2.59

###

###

###

### -0.744

###

1.21

###

###

### 0.037

###

-9.34

11.00

22

-2.68

-1.79

###

###

###

### -0.732

###

1.20

###

###

### 0.025

###

-10.23

10.19

23

-3.57

-0.91

###

###

###

### -0.777

###

1.25

###

###

### 0.013

###

-11.13

9.35

24

-4.47

0.00

###

###

###

### -0.796

###

1.28

###

###

### 0.000

###

-12.02

8.46

Undrained shear strength profile of soft clay

depth
0
1.5
3
5
7
10 (m)
cu 34.07 22.74 15.91 15.85 22.46 34.82 (kPa)
depth

clay

16

(kN/m )
3

25

50

Embankment
cm m m

10.47 30.95 20.76

(kPa) (o) (kN/m3)

4
6
8

10

cu (kPa)

from Spencer_forSARA2003

Ka

hc

0.32

1.78151

mean StDev

Read the Low (2003) paper "Practical

Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis",
downloadable from
http://alum.mit.edu/www/bklow.

DistName
lognormal
lognormal
lognormal

For hands-on: Read the section in paper

related to Figure 6.

lognormal
lognormal
lognormal
lognormal
lognormal
lognormal

cm
m
m
cu1
cu2
cu3
cu4
cu5
cu6

vi

mi

mN

sN

10.472107

10

1.50

###

###

30.948505

30

3.00

###

###

20.757609

20

1.00

###

###

34.072981

40

6.00

###

###

22.735506

28

4.20

###

###

15.906807

20

3.00

###

###

15.852003

20

3.00

###

###

22.463107

26

3.90

###

###

34.81741

37

5.55

###

###

EqvN(, 1)
EquilCheck

Array formula: Ctrl+Shift, then Enter

### #VALUE!

=SQRT(MMULT(TRANSPOSE(vn),MMULT(MINVERSE(crmat),vn)))

### #VALUE!
### #VALUE!
### #VALUE!
### #VALUE!
### #VALUE!

EqvN(, 2)

DeterministicCritical Normals, reliability-based critical

x
yb
yt
x
yb
yt

### #VALUE!

18.07

3.27

5.00

17.2543

3.2144 5.0000

### #VALUE!

16.88

1.68

5.00

16.2395

1.6480 5.0000

### #VALUE!

15.70

0.00

5.00

15.2246

0.0000 5.0000

### #VALUE!

14.72

-0.95

5.00

14.3227

-0.8758 5.0000

### #VALUE!

13.74

-1.84

5.00

13.4208

-1.7092 5.0000

### #VALUE!

12.76

-2.63

5.00

12.5188

-2.4603 5.0000

### #VALUE!

11.78

-3.37

5.00

11.6169

-3.1408 5.0000

### #VALUE!

10.79

-4.01

5.00

10.7150

-3.7526 5.0000

### #VALUE!

9.81

-4.63

5.00

9.8131

-4.3359 5.0000

### #VALUE!

8.83

-5.15

4.50

8.9111

-4.8270 4.5404

### #VALUE!

7.85

-5.52

4.00

8.0092

-5.1699 4.0809

### #VALUE!

6.87

-5.78

3.50

7.1073

-5.3990 3.6213

### #VALUE!

5.89

-5.94

3.00

6.2054

-5.5524 3.1618

### #VALUE!

4.91

-6.02

2.50

5.3034

-5.6343 2.7022

### #VALUE!

3.93

-6.00

2.00

4.4015

-5.6452 2.2427

### #VALUE!

2.94

-5.88

1.50

3.4996

-5.5803 1.7831

### #VALUE!

1.96

-5.65

1.00

2.5976

-5.4312 1.3236

### #VALUE!

0.98
0.00
-0.98

-5.28
-4.73
-4.08

0.50
0.00
0.00

1.6957
0.7938
-0.1081

-5.1821 0.8640
-4.7721 0.4045
-4.1579 0.0000

-1.96

-3.39

0.00

-1.0101

-3.4079 0.0000

-2.94

-2.61

0.00

-1.9120

-2.5921 0.0000

-3.93

-1.81

0.00

-2.8139

-1.7930 0.0000

-4.91

-0.93

0.00

-3.7158

-0.9136 0.0000

-5.89

0.00

0.00

-4.6178

0.0000 0.0000

from Spencer_forSARA2003

vn

Correlation matrix, "crmat"

m cu1 cu2 cu3 cu4 cu5

cm

#VALUE!

-0.3

0.5

#VALUE!

-0.3

0.5

#VALUE!

0.5

0.5

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

0.6065

#VALUE!

0.3679 0.6065

#VALUE!

0.1889 0.3114 0.5134

#VALUE!

0.097 0.1599 0.2636 0.5134

#VALUE!

0.0357 0.0588 0.097 0.1889 0.3679

(v-m )/s
N

0.6065 0.3679 0.1889 0.097 0.0357

1

EqvN(, 2)

Array formula: Ctrl+Shift, then Enter ###

ANSPOSE(vn),MMULT(MINVERSE(crmat),vn)))

0.6065 0.3114 0.1599 0.0588 1.5

1.5

0.5134 0.2636 0.097

0.5134 0.1889
1
7

0.3679

3
5
7

10

10

dv

Equation 9 autofilled

PrFail
###

cu6

=normsdist(-)

Probability of failure

LogNormals, reliability-based critical

6.0000
4.0000
2.0000

-10.0000

0.0000
-5.0000
0.0000
-2.0000
-4.0000
-6.0000
-8.0000

17.22 3.218

16.19 1.655

15.17

14.28 -0.86

13.38 -1.69

12.49 -2.43

-3.11

10.71 -3.72

11.6

9.813 -4.3

8.921 -4.79 4.545

5.0000
10.0000
8.028 -5.14 4.091

15.0000

7.136 -5.37 3.636

6.243 -5.53 3.181

deterministic critical

5.351 -5.62 2.726

4.458 -5.63 2.272
3.566 -5.57 1.817
2.674 -5.43 1.362
1.781 -5.18 0.908
0.889 -4.78 0.453
0

-4.17

-0.9

-3.41

-1.79 -2.59

-2.68 -1.79

-3.57 -0.91

-4.47

###

20.0000

Case1

12

Page 10

Case1

21

24

Page 11

Case1
1.940582171

Page 12

Case2

14

Page 13

Case2

19

24

Page 14

Case2
1.230582584

Page 15