August

g 10,, 2015

Weekly Call

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah
Nitin Kunte, CMT
Dipesh Dagha
Pabitro Mukherjee
Vinayak Parmar

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

Weekly
Calls At Your Service
Deal Team

Gabriel India (GABIND)

Code

GABIND

CMP

| 92.30

Comment

Breaking from wedge

wedge-like
like
consolidation phase with higher
volume.

Action

Buy in the range of 89-91

Reco. Date

10th Aug2015

Stop-loss

| 84

Targets

| 101 / higher

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Weekly
Calls At Your Service
Deal Team

UFLEX (FLEIND)
Code

UFLEX

CMP

| 187.45

Comment

Breaking previous resistance

with higher volume.

Action

Buy in the range of 180-183

Reco. Date

10th Aug2015

Stop-loss

| 166

Targets

| 215 / higher

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Trend Scanner

Deal Team At Your Service

Positive Trends

Candlestick Pattern

Scrip Name

Close

Delivery % 5 days Averge

42.00

1,331.6

1,216.0

1,150.0

54.00

JSW Steel

Engulfing Bull

922.5

Praj Industries

Engulfing Bear

1,361.4

1,380.0

1,383.0

68.00

OIL India

Engulfing Bull

456.4

GSPL

Engulfing Bear

125.2

20,631.6

19,507.0

18,341.0

38.00

SKF India

Engulfing Bull

1361.4

Hexaware

Dark Cloud Cover

279.2

1 833 5
1,833.5

1 776 0
1,776.0

1 735 0
1,735.0

50 00
50.00

Brigade

Engulfing Bull

Bharat Forge

Continuous

1222.7

Bosch

Continuous

26036.4

Eicher Motors

Continuous

20631.6

Larsen & Toubro

Engulfing Bull

SKF India

Negative Trends
Scrip Name

Close
1,048.9

50 days EMA
1,132.0

100 days EMA

1,183.0

Delivery % 5 days Averge

Pattern name

Bearish Candlestick Formations

255.0

Strides Arcolab

Just Dial

Bullish Candlestick Formations

264.0

279.5

Larsen & Toubro

100 days EMA

Scrip Name

Bajaj Electricals

Eicher Motors

50 days EMA

LTP

154.7

Scrip Name

Pattern name

LTP
102.5

JSW Energy

Continuous

77.2

Just Dial

Continuous

1048.9

1833.5

53.00

Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Market Activity
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

Gl b l Markets
Global
M k ts
China

3,744.2
2.2%

Germany

11,490.8
1.6%

France

5,154.8
1.4%

Japan

20,724.6
0.7%

UK

6,718.5
0.3%

Hong Kong

24,552.5
-0.3%

US

2,077.6
-1.2%

Brazil

48,577.3
-4.5%

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

48.39
-6.5%
7.81
0 4 bbps
0.4
0.66
1.7 bps

Silver (ounce)

US 10 Year
JPY 10 Year

6.1
5.7
4.4
7.9
-11.7
4.9
2.6
-7.7
7.6
12.9
11.9

1.7%
5,164.00

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

-1.1%
14.9
0.8%

4.50

6.1

5.9

5.5

2.18

4.5
-3.7

-4.4

-5.5

-5.9

HCLTECH

0.0%

Copper (tonne)

0.98

0.6
1.3
2.0
0.9
1.0
-1.3
1.5
3.9
2.3
2.8
2.5

COALINDIA

1,093.30

Swiss Franc

2.9
0.1
2.8
0.9
0.1
0.7
0.0
3.6
1.1
2.5
2.3

BHEL

EURO 10 Year

0.2%

1.55
-0.8%

11413.47
8141.03
17521.15
11168.66
8672.8
9966.73
2064.21
1437.2
11358.74
11557.52
12104.47

IDEA

India 10 year

124.31

British Pound

Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap

-3.50
3.50

-2.4
2 4 bbps
0.40

-11.50

-1 bps

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

DRREDDY

Brent Crude/barrel

0.0%

0.3%

3M
5.9
6.1
9.2
7.1
88
8.8

BOSCHLTD

Gold/ounce

1.10

97 62
97.62

1M
0.7
0.7
3.4
1.7
05
0.5

PNB

Japanese Yen

0.5%

Dollar Index

1Wk
0.4
0.4
3.4
0.9
17
1.7

TATASTEEL

Euro

63 82
63.82

Current
28236.39
8564.6
19765.17
21702.4
18392 34
18392.34

% Change

Rupee (|)

INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods

Market Activity
Deal Team At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
Series2

Series1

30000

Series3

28000

-441 1552

54442
5319

10326
-3344

-5768 4177

3940

9244
11721

11476

12078

4309

880
12919

-1172

-1000

29000

2132

5103

4000

5940

4172

9000

7037

14000

13753

1677

19000

26000

28115

Aug'15

June'15

28112

July'15

May'15

Apr'15

Mar'15

Feb'15

Jan'15

Dec'14

Nov'14

Oct'14

25000

Sep'14

6000
-6000

27000

Weekly market breadth trends

Advance %

Decline %

Sensex

19-Jun-15

26-Jun-15

3-Jul-15

10-Jul-15

17-Jul-15

Week Ended

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

56%
44%

12-Jun-15

29500
28000
26500

54%
46%
%

27316

28236

%
51%
%
49%

26425

57%
43%

28463

54%
%
46%

0%

27661

%
55%
%
45%

20%

28093

53%
47%

40%

27812

58%
42%

60%

44%
56%

Perccentage

80%

24-Jul-15

31-Jul-15

7-Aug-15

25000
23500

Previous
Weeks
Deal Team
AtPerformance
Your Service
Date
3-Aug
3-Aug

Scrip
NBCC
Gokuldas Export

Product
Cash
Cash

Strategy
Buy
Buy

RP
1012.00
84.00

Target
1110.00
97.00

SL
950.00
77.00

Gain/Loss % Comment
Not Initiated
15.0
Target almost achieved

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 14,

14 2015)
COMPANY

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

NIFTY

8564.60

8539.72

8473.13

8381.67

8631.18

8697.77

SENSEX

28236.39

28154.16

27948.35

27660.32

28442.19

28648.00

ACC

1399.65

1394.22

1371.43

1343.22

1422.43

1445.22

AMBUJACEM

228 50
228.50

229 22
229.22

225 28
225.28

222 07
222.07

232 43
232.43

236 37
236.37

ASIANPAINT

898.65

900.15

873.50

848.35

925.30

951.95

AXISBANK

580.30

580.48

571.47

562.63

589.32

598.33

BAJAJ-AUTO

2537.40

2540.85

2473.70

2410.00

2604.55

2671.70

BANKBARODA

185.00

185.30

177.75

170.50

192.55

200.10

BHARTIARTL

411.60

416.17

404.63

397.67

423.13

434.67

BHEL
BOSCHLTD

266 15
266.15

268 12
268.12

248 28
248.28

230 42
230.42

285 98
285.98

305 82
305.82

26036.40

25801.70

24904.40

23772.40

26933.70

27831.00

BPCL

955.50

941.00

919.00

882.50

977.50

999.50

CAIRN

166.80

168.93

162.27

157.73

173.47

180.13

CIPLA

715.15

716.45

701.80

688.45

729.80

744.45

COALINDIA

414.70

424.65

402.20

389.70

437.15

459.60

DRREDDY

4258 85
4258.85

4210 00
4210.00

4093 50
4093.50

3928 15
3928.15

4375 35
4375.35

4491 85
4491.85

GAIL

341.85

345.97

336.43

331.02

351.38

360.92

GRASIM

3808.70

3785.20

3727.50

3646.30

3866.40

3924.10

HCLTECH

939.35

944.27

925.08

910.82

958.53

977.72

HDFC

1298.45

1312.65

1274.80

1251.15

1336.30

1374.15

HDFCBANK

1092.65

1097.37

1077.23

1061.82

1112.78

1132.92

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 - 14, 2015)
COMPANY
HEROMOTOCO

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

2661.85

2686.00

2578.20

2494.55

2769.65

2877.45

HINDALCO

109.55

108.83

105.42

101.28

112.97

116.38

HINDUNILVR

904.85

909.90

895.00

885.15

919.75

934.65

ICICIBANK

310.15

311.38

302.97

295.78

318.57

326.98

IDEA

166.95

168.32

161.63

156.32

173.63

180.32

INDUSINDBK

946.95

957.67

929.33

911.72

975.28

1003.62

INFY

1095.60

1084.03

1062.57

1029.53

1117.07

1138.53

ITC

324.45

326.65

319.80

315.15

331.30

338.15

KOTAKBANK

705.00

699.22

685.93

666.87

718.28

731.57

LT

1833.45

1793.83

1743.67

1653.88

1883.62

1933.78

LUPIN

1694.40

1681.80

1646.70

1599.00

1729.50

1764.60

M&M

1390.30

1388.12

1334.18

1278.07

1444.23

1498.17

MARUTI

4452 95
4452.95

4438 98
4438.98

4393 97
4393.97

4334 98
4334.98

4497 97
4497.97

4542 98
4542.98

NMDC

104.00

103.03

101.57

99.13

105.47

106.93

NTPC

133.85

135.05

132.10

130.35

136.80

139.75

ONGC

282.85

277.17

270.38

257.92

289.63

296.42

PNB

159.90

158.12

152.43

144.97

165.58

171.27

POWERGRID

139.60

140.62

138.33

137.07

141.88

144.17

RELIANCE

984.35

991.78

969.72

955.08

1006.42

1028.48

SBIN

281.30

281.00

270.20

259.10

292.10

302.90

SUNPHARMA

851.95

843.12

828.83

805.72

866.23

880.52

TATAMOTORS

393.40

387.53

379.07

364.73

401.87

410.33

TATAPOWER

69.10

69.53

68.12

67.13

70.52

71.93

TATASTEEL

262.05

258.62

248.73

235.42

271.93

281.82

TCS

2552.05

2540.35

2497.70

2443.35

2594.70

2637.35

TECHM

535.15

538.48

518.17

501.18

555.47

575.78

ULTRACEMCO

3202.45

3187.82

3119.63

3036.82

3270.63

3338.82

VEDL

129.30

128.27

125.13

120.97

132.43

135.57

WIPRO

569.10

568.78

557.82

546.53

580.07

591.03

YESBANK

821.45

829.08

811.72

801.98

838.82

856.18

ZEEL

410.40

408.20

398.70

387.00

419.90

429.40

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Deal Team At Your Service

Date

Event

US

10-Aug
10-Aug
10-Aug
11-Aug
11-Aug
12-Aug
12
Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug

Labor Market Conditions Index Change

MBA Mortgage Foreclosures
Mortgage Delinquencies
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Nonfarm Productivity
MBA Mortgage Applications
JOLTS Job Openings
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Initial Jobless Claims
PPI Final Demand MoM
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
Industrial Production MoM
Manufacturing (SIC) Production

India

10-Aug
12-Aug

Trade Balance
Industrial Production YoY

12-Aug
14-Aug

CPI YoY
Wholesale Prices YoY

China

10 A
10-Aug
10-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug

New Yuan Loans CNY

Aggregate Financing CNY
Retail Sales YoY
Industrial Production YTD YoY
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY

UK

11-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug
12-Aug
13-Aug
14-Aug
14-Aug

BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY

Claimant Count Rate
Jobless Claims Change
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
RICS House Price Balance
Construction Output SA MoM
Construction Output SA YoY

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Notes

Deal Team At Your Service

Please
Pl
execute the
h recommendation
d i within
i hi the
h prescribed
ib d range provided
id d iin the
h report
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on remaining position to the
entry point
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
Within
Withi each
h product
d t segmentt it is
i advisable
d i bl to
t allocate
ll
t equall amountt to
t each
h recommendation
d ti
For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation

10

Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation

Deal Team At Your Service

11

Candlesticks Glossary:

Deal Team At Your Service

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
sessionss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real bodywarns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over
the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

12

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
p
Dagha,
g , Pabitro Mukherjee,
j , Vinayak
y Parmar Research Analysts,
y , authors and the names subscribed to
We //I,, Dharmesh Shah,, Nitin Kunte,, Dipesh
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or
securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
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fi
financial
i l products.
d t ICICI S
Securities
iti iis a wholly-owned
h ll
d subsidiary
b idi
off ICICI B
Bankk which
hi h iis IIndias
di llargestt private
i t sector
t b
bankk and
dh
has it
its various
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subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management,
etc. (associates), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
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Disclaimer
ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not
necessarily
il a guide
id tto ffuture
t
performance.
f
IInvestors
t
are advised
d i d tto see Ri
Riskk Di
Disclosure
l
D
Documentt to
t understand
d t d the
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b f
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at the
h time
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It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Dipesh Dagha, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not
received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in
the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses
businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership
in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.