TABLE OF CONTENTS: ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN PAKISTAN:.................................................................................................2 GOVERNMENT ENERGY POLICY:..................................................................................

.......................2 ENERGY POLICY...............................................................................................................................................2 INTRODUCTION OF INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS (IPPS)..................................................................................2 SUPPLY & DEMAND OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN:.....................................................................3 INSTALLED CAPACITY:.......................................................................................................................................3 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION:.................................................................................................................................3 CURRENT CRISIS:.......................................................................................................................................5 RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS:......................................................................................................................5 WIND ENERGY................................................................................................................................................6 SOLAR ENERGY:...............................................................................................................................................6 GENERATING ELECTRICITY THROUGH WIND ENERGY:.............................................................6 HOW IT OPERATES:............................................................................................................................................7 BASIC COMPONENTS OF WIND TURBINES ..............................................................................................................8 TWO TYPES OF TURBINES ..................................................................................................................................8 SIZES OF TURBINES ..........................................................................................................................................9 WHERE CAN BE LOCATED:..................................................................................................................................9 WIND ENERGY IN PAKISTAN:...............................................................................................................10 PAKISTAN CAN MANUFACTURE WIND ENERGY PLANTS:...........................................................................................11 GENERATING ELECTRICITY THROUGH SOLAR ENERGY:.........................................................12 ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR ENERGY IN PAKISTAN:....................................................................................................12 HURDLES:.....................................................................................................................................................14 PROJECT EVALUATION:.........................................................................................................................14 1ST ALTERNATIVE:..........................................................................................................................................15 WIND ENERGY:.............................................................................................................................................15 2ND ALTERNATIVE:.........................................................................................................................................15 SOLAR ENERGY:............................................................................................................................................15 ANALYSIS:...................................................................................................................................................16 NOISE POLLUTION:..........................................................................................................................................16 HUGE AREA CONSUMED:..................................................................................................................................17 VARIABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION:......................................................................................................................17 CONCLUSION:............................................................................................................................................18 FUTURE PLANS:........................................................................................................................................18 PILOT PROJECT FOR INSTALLATION OF INDIGENOUSLY DEVELOPED MICRO WIND TURBINES:.....................................18 (2X50) MW WIND POWER GENERATION PROJECT AT GHARO, SINDH .................................................................18

Electricity sector in Pakistan:
Electricity in Pakistan is generated, transmitted, distributed and retail supplied by two vertically integrated public sector utilities; Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) - For the whole Pakistan (Except Karachi) and the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) - For the City of Karachi and its surrounding Areas. There are around 16 independent power producers that contribute significantly in electricity generation in Pakistan. The electric power sector in Pakistan is still primarily state-owned. Over half of the electricity goes to household consumers, about one third to industrial consumers, and the rest to commercial and government consumers. Rates are determined by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA). Other sources of generating electricity are Independent Power Producers (IPP's), some of which have been funded by foreign investors, and a few WAPDA hydroelectric dam projects. The two largest private power plants in Pakistan are the Hub Power Company (HUBCO) and the Kot Addu power company (KAPCO). HUBCO, with a 1,300-MW capacity, is owned by a consortium of International Power (UK), Xenal (Saudi Arabia), and Mitsui Corporation. The Kot Addu plant, with a 1,600-MW capacity, was privatized in 1996 (from WAPDA). International Power holds a 36 percent equity stake in the Kot Addu plant, while the government holds a soon-to-be divested 64 percent stake. Both of these plants, as well as a few other small private operators, sell power to the national grid currently run by WAPDA.

Government Energy Policy:
The govt. policy for the energy sector has been reformed from time to time but we will take a closer look at the policies. Energy Policy Energy sector is regulated and to a large extent owned and operated by the Government of Pakistan (GOP). GOP has been carrying out institutional reforms in the energy sector for the last 15 years. Besides improving the efficiency of public sector institutions, policies are aimed at increasing private sector participation in the development of energy sector. In line with these objectives, in 1986, the GOP encouraged setting up of private sector power projects on BOO (Build-Own-Operate) basis as a matter of policy, but the response was not very encouraging. The GOP announced comprehensive frameworks in 1994 and 1995 aimed at attracting private sector investments for the development of power sector. In 1998, the GOP announced a policy to increase the role of regulatory body – National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) for the power producers. Various policies have also been announced for other sub sectors of the energy sector (e.g. Petroleum, etc.) in order to increase the private participation. Introduction of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) When the ‘Policy Framework and Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects in Pakistan‘ was announced by GOP in March 1994, the total installed capacity in the country was 10,800 MW. This capacity was insufficient to meet the demand on year round basis, particularly during low river flows period, and it

necessitated load shedding of the magnitude of 2,000 MW during peak load hours. At that time, an optimistic load projection at the rate of 8% per annum for the next 25 years gave rise to an estimated 54,000 MW additional electricity generation capacity requirement up to year 2018. Such an ambitious programme could not be financed by the GOP, and therefore, resource mobilization in the private sector was considered essential to meet these development targets. Due to poor response of 1986 policy a policy package was devised in March 1994 for attracting overseas investment as well as domestic capital for developing power projects. The lucrative terms, with a high rate of return on equity, attracted a large number of foreign investors and created a situation of surplus power in the country, since the economic growth slowed down in the following years and power demand did not grow as projected. The financial position of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was adversely affected due to high tariffs and guaranteed payments to be made to the IPPs. The GOP revised the power policy in July 1998. This policy envisages power generation additions in future through competitive bidding for specific sites and types of plants and gives priority to indigenous fuel based (hydro and local coal) projects. Competitive bidding amongst power suppliers is likely to keep the tariff low. In the mean time efforts are being made to solve the problem of surplus power by revival of the sick industry. The present policy of the government is not to use public sector funds for power production, except for hydro generation.

Supply & Demand of electricity in Pakistan:
Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 19,845 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Installed Capacity:
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Electricity - total installed capacity: 19,505 MW (2007) Electricity - Sources (2007)
o o o

fossil fuel - 12,580 MW - 65% of total hydro - 6,463 MW - 33% of total nuclear - 462 MW - 2% of total

Electricity production:
• •

Electricity - production: 88.42 TWh Electricity - production by source
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fossil fuel: 63.7% of total hydro: 33.9% of total nuclear: 2.4% of total Growing demand

Supply & demand of electricity
2008 Existing Generation 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 4,235 7,226 10,115 10,556 13,307 13,520 14,607

Proposal / Committed 530 Generation Total Existing/Committed Generation Expected Generation Demand Peak) Available (Summer

16,484 20,138 23,129 26,018 26,459 29,210 29,423 30,510

13,146 16,110 18,503 20,814 21,167 23,368 23,538 24,408 16,484 17,868 19,352 20,874 22,460 24,126 25,919 28,029 -3,338 -1,758 -849 -60 -1,293 -758 -2,381 -3,621

Surplus/Deficit Generation

Current Crisis:
In June 2007, the power cuts in Pakistan lasted no more than 3 or 4 hours a day. Today, in extremely hot weather, Pakistanis have to endure without electricity for 8 to 10 hours a day. Industrial production is suffering, exports are down, jobs are being lost, and the national economy is in a downward spiral. By all indications, the power crisis in Pakistan is getting worse than ever. Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have been able to give PEPCO only 3,800 MW on average out of 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the IPPs are running fuel stocks below the required minimum of 21 days. IPPs complain that they are not being paid on time by PEPCO. Extended electricity load shedding in Karachi's five major industrial estates is causing losses in billions of rupees as the production activity has fallen by about 50 per cent. KESC, Karachi's power supply utility, is dealing with with a shortfall of around 700MW against a total demand of 2200MW. Almost all forms of power generation from fossil fuel-fired thermal to hydroelectric to nuclear are down from a year ago. As a result of the daily rolling blackouts, the economy, major exports and overall employment are also down and the daily wage earners are suffering. The KESC and PEPCO owe more than Rs. 10b to the independent power producers (IPPs) and paying them will help bring them into full operation and ease the crisis at least partially. Per capita energy consumption of the country is estimated at 14 million Btu, which is about the same as India's but only a fraction of other industrializing economies in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia, according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on expensive, imported oil that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position, creating growing budget deficits. On the other hand, hydro, coal, wind and solar are perhaps underutilized and underdeveloped today, as Pakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources.

Response to the crisis:
Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project, first formally announced by former Minister Omar Ayub on June 10, 2007, is finally starting in earnest under the PPP government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. This hydro project is expected to add 963MW power generating capacity at a cost US $2.2 billion, according to Business Wire. Prior to this project, the new Pakistani Prime Minister signed a deal with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura). Both of these projects are expected help partially close

the 3000 MW gap that exists today between supply and demand in Pakistan. Green Energy Opportunities In response to the warnings of energy crisis in Pakistan, President Musharraf's government recognized the need and the potential for renewable alternatives and, in 2006, created Alternative Energy Development Board to pursue renewable energy. In particular, AEDB is focusing on wind and solar as viable alternatives. AEDB is facilitating setting up of small renewable energy projects in line with government’s policy of promoting the use of renewable energy in the country’s power generation mix, says the board’s chief executive officer Mr Arif Alauddin. Wind Energy Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which are high wind speeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4 meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour). In addition to high wind speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is also very fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines that are situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtually guarantees that power will be available all the time. AEDB has recently issued Makwind Power Private Ltd (MPPL) a Letter of Intent for the setting up of 50MW wind farm at Nooriabad in Sindh, as part of its efforts to facilitate 700 MW wind energy by 2010. Solar energy: Pakistan is an exceptionally sunny country. If 0.25% of Balochistan was covered with solar panels with an efficiency of 20%, enough electricity would be generated to cover all of Pakistani demand. In all provinces the AEDB has created 100 solar homes in order to exploit solar energy. Solar energy makes much sense for Pakistan for several reasons: firstly, 70% of the population lives in 50,000 villages that are very far away from the national grid, according to a report by the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). Connecting these villages to the national grid would be very costly, thus giving each house a solar panel would be cost efficient and would empower people both economically and socially. After having discussed the alternates we will now how wind & solar energy resources work, what are their advantages and disadvantages & whether they are suitable for Pakistan’s environment.

Generating Electricity through Wind energy:
Since 2001, global wind capacity has nearly doubled to 47,760 megawatts and is cheaper than natural gas even without subsidies. On good sites, wind is even closing in on coal. The world's global sales of wind power equipment are projected to reach $49 billion a year by 2012. The global wind industry now employs well over 100,000 people, and Germany alone expects to have more than 100,000 wind energy related jobs by 2010.

Total installed windpower (end of year & latest estimates) Capacity (MW) Rank Nation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Germany Spain USA India Denmark Italy United Kingdom China Netherlands Japan World total Latest 20,622 11,615 11,078 6,053 No change No change 1,962 No change No change No change 65000 2005 18,428 10,028 9,149 4,430 3,128 1,717 1,353 1,260 1,219 1,040 58982

capacity

2004 16,629 8,504 6,725 3,000 3,124 1,265 888 764 1,078 896 47651

How it operates: Wind turbines harness the wind to generate electricity. Wind turns the turbine blades, which spin a shaft, which connects to the generator and makes electricity. A local transformer is then used to step up the electrical voltage, so that the electricity can then be sent through transmission and distribution lines to homes, businesses and other users. Wind turbines generally produce electricity when winds blow at speeds of 13 kilometres an hour or greater. They shut down at above 90 kilometres per hour for safety reasons. Wind turbines can also be used to generate mechanical power for specific tasks such as grinding grain or pumping water. On the Canadian Prairies, for example, there are several thousand wind turbines that pump water.

Basic components of wind turbines Electricity-producing wind turbines have four basic components: ♦ ♦ A rotor consisting of two or three blades attached to a hub A generator that produces electricity in the form of alternating current

♦ A control and protection system that optimizes performance and keeps the machinery operating within safe limits ♦ A tower that raises the rotor off the ground. Modern wind turbines make use of very few but very large blades (ranging between 40 to 80 metres in diameter) to capture wind energy, extracting energy from the largest possible volume of air. The blades are set at different angles to cope with varying wind speeds, and the generator and the blades can be turned to face the changing direction of the wind. The turbines are mounted on towers 40 to 80 metres tall, so as to capture stronger wind flows. Two types of turbines Modern turbines fall into two basic groups: ♦ ♦ Horizontal axis turbines Vertical axis turbines.

Horizontal axis turbines resemble airplane propellers, with two to three rotor blades fixed at the front of the tower and facing into the wind. This is the most common design found today, making up most of the large utility-scale turbines on the global market. Vertical axis turbines resemble a large eggbeater with rotor blades attached vertically at the top and near the bottom of the tower and bulging out in the middle.

Sizes of turbines Wind turbines come in different sizes and can be used in small-scale and large-scale applications. Single small turbines, up to 300 kilowatts, can be used in a variety of applications, including battery charging, providing power to remote cottages or communities, and powering farms and industrial facilities. These turbines are sometimes combined with other energy sources such diesel generators and solar photovoltaic systems to provide a reliable source of power. Utility-scale turbines, 500 kilowatts and larger, provide power to the electricity grid. These are often grouped together in wind farms or wind power plants. By grouping wind turbines into wind farms, it is possible to generate electricity more economically and to produce enough electricity to power thousands of homes. It can also be more costeffective to maintain and operate turbines. Where can be located: As a general rule, wind generators are practical where the average wind speed is 10 mph (16 km/h or 4.5 m/s) or greater. Usually sites are pre-selected on basis of a wind atlas, and validated with wind measurements. Obviously, meteorology plays an important part in determining possible locations for wind parks, though it has great accuracy limitations. Meteorological wind data is not usually sufficient for accurate siting of a large wind power project. An 'ideal' location would have a near constant flow of non-turbulent wind throughout the year and would not suffer too many sudden powerful bursts of wind. An important turbine siting factor is access to local demand or transmission capacity. Onshore turbine installations in hilly or mountainous regions tend to be on ridgelines generally three kilometers or more inland from the nearest shoreline. This is done to exploit the so-called topographic acceleration. The hill or ridge causes the wind to accelerate as it is forced over it. The additional wind speeds gained in this way make large differences to the amount of energy that is produced. Great attention must be paid to the exact positions of the turbines (a process known as micro-siting) because a difference of 30 m can sometimes mean a doubling in output. Local winds are often monitored for a year or more with anemometers and detailed wind maps constructed before wind generators are installed.

Near-Shore turbine installations are generally considered to be inside a zone that is on land within three kilometers of a shoreline and on water within ten kilometers of land. Wind speeds in these zones share wind speed characteristics of both onshore wind and offshore wind depending on the prevailing wind direction. Common issues that are shared within Near-shore wind development zones are aviary (including bird migration and nesting), aquatic habitat, transportation (including shipping and boating) and visual aesthetics amongst several others. Sea shores also tend to be windy areas and good sites for turbine installation, because a primary source of wind is convection from the differential heating and cooling of land and sea over the course of day and night. Winds at sea level carry somewhat more energy than winds of the same speed in mountainous areas because the air at sea level is denser.

Wind Energy in Pakistan:
Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which is high wind speeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4 meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour). In only the Balochistan and Sindh provinces, sufficient wind exists to power every coastal village in the country. There also exists a corridor between Gharo and Keti Bandar that alone could produce between 40,000 and 50,000 megawatts of electricity, says Ms. Katz who has studied and written about alternative energy potential in South Asia. Given this surplus potential, Pakistan has much to offer Asia with regards to wind energy. In recent years, the government has completed several projects to demonstrate that wind energy is viable in the country. In Mirpur Sakro, 85 micro turbines have been installed to power 356 homes. In Kund Malir, 40 turbines have been installed, which power 111 homes. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has also acquired 18,000 acres for the installation of more wind turbines. In addition to high wind speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is also very fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines that are situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtually guarantees that power will be available all the time. Within towns and cities, wind speeds can often change quickly due to the presence of buildings and other structures, which can damage wind turbines. In addition, many people do not wish for turbines to be sited near cities because of noise, though these problems are often exaggerated. Wind turbines make less noise than an office and people comfortably carry on conversations while standing near them. Pakistan can import wind energy plants from neighboring India, the company Suzlon manufactures wind turbines, thus decreasing transportation costs. Working with Suzlon, Pakistan can begin to build its own wind-turbine industry and create thousands of new jobs while solving its energy problems. Suzlon turbines start to turn at a speed of 3 meters per second. Vestas, which is one of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers, has wind turbines that start turning at a speed of 4 meters per second. In addition to

Karachi and Islamabad, there are other areas in Pakistan that receive a significant amount of wind.

Pakistan can manufacture wind energy plants: During a survey of the country’s existing manufacturing facilities, surveyor got convinced that all the parts and components of the wind turbine could be easily manufactured indigenously. The blades and the hub (the item to which the blades are firmly connected) can be produced without any hassle at Aircraft Manufacturing Factory (AMF), Kamra. If Kamra is unable to undertake this job due to its over-commitment, then there’re other reputable concerns as well where this job could be undertaken. The gearbox and the two shafts are purely mechanical items, nothing special in them. We can utilize the services and expertise of Machine Tools Factory, Landhi, Karachi. We can also utilize the expertise available at Heavy Mechanical Complex, Taxila or any other facility dealing in mechanical items. The electrical generator that’s installed behind the gearbox can be produced by any of the electrical concerns at Lahore or Karachi. The same goes for the controller that utilizes electronics besides computer software. We are undertaking much more complicated projects in our electromechanical cum electronics cum computers concerns of the country. This item can be manufactured in these concerns.

As for the steel towers on which the turbines would be installed; these towers are already being manufactured in the country. WAPDA is using thousands of them on the roadside. These towers could be designed and modified as per the desired specifications for use with the wind turbines. Regarding cables, we have numerous cable manufacturing factories in the country. If required, their existing capacity could be upgraded and augmented to produce cables of the required specs that could be used to connect wind turbines to a home, business, factory or the national grid.

Generating Electricity through solar energy:
Solar energy supports all life on earth and is basis of almost every form of energy which we use. Amount of solar energy that falls on earth is enormous. It will be surprising to note that all energy stored in earth’s reserves of coal, oil and natural gas is just equivalent to energy from only 20 days of sunshine. Yet solar energy accounts for only 1 per cent of global energy sources

Solar panel

Advantages of solar energy in Pakistan: Proponents of solar energy are now convinced that the development and adaptation of solar energy technology in Pakistan can bring a revolution in the life style and living standards of low income people living in the remote areas. While propagating this option they fail to understand that infrastructure, required know-how and limited production levels are the bottlenecks in the mass scale adaptation of solar energy. For years we have been providing incentives and funds for practical demonstration of solar energy, convincing the people for their utilities, educating the masses and developing the pilot scale activities for its promotion but could not achieve a breakthrough as yet due to these limitations.

The role of solar energy has been negligible in the total energy picture of Pakistan. Solar energy technology has so far been used in our country only for demonstration purposes. The experiments in the past in this area were not so successful due to variety of reasons including lack of understanding and handling of this technology. The solar energy technologies have not been exploited on a large scale for a number of reasons such as, high cost, lack of motivation and inadequate demonstration of effective use of the technology. Recently there is a realization among government circles, about the necessity of using solar energy for the purpose of saving the environment and socioeconomic uplift of the peoples living in the remote areas. Traditional energy sources like firewood, animal dung, and bagasse (the woody residue left-over from crushed sugar-cane) still make up more than half of all energy consumed in the rural areas. There is no denying the fact that solar-generated electricity will improve rural life, thereby reducing the urban migration that is taxing the ability of cities to cope with their own environmental problems. Further, by harnessing solar power for energy in rural areas reliance on firewood would be reduced considerably but question arises that how to bring the know-how for operating such delicate systems in remote areas of the country? Thar in Sindh and entire Balochistan province is considered ideal for utilization of solar energy. In Balochistan, 80 per cent of the population lives in the rural areas. The population density is very thin and villages are separated by large distances with absolutely no approach roads. About 85 per cent of the villages are yet to be electrified. Light is the only requirement for these houses located in remote areas of the province and the electric requirement for each house is 100 watt at maximum. Extension of grid lines for such small power requirements would certainly be very uneconomical and local power generation could be the best solution. In case, diesel generators are used, transportation of fuel to such remote areas and maintenance is again costly proposition therefore solar energy seems an attractive option for these areas. Pakistan is ideally located in the sun belt to take advantage of solar energy technologies. This energy source is widely distributed and abundantly available in the country. Balochistan province is particularly rich in solar energy. It has the highest annual mean sunshine duration in the world. Impressed by advantages of solar power like infinite and renewable amount of energy, environment friendliness and fuel-less power generation the government of Pakistan under the umbrella of Ministry of Science and Technology some 20 years ago, accorded top priority to solar power generation and for that matter established some research and development institutes like the National Institute of Silicon Technology (NIST), the Pakistan Council of Appropriate Technology (PCAT) and the Solar Energy Research Centre (SERC) and the Pakistan Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (PCSIR).

In addition to it certain departments in various national engineering universities were involved in solar thermal technologies. Hurdles: General hurdles are cost effectiveness, collection, conversion and storage of solar energy the other potential bottle neck in promotion of solar power is lack of trained technicians to design, install and maintain solar electric system particularly in countrywide remote areas. Proponents of solar electricity systems for off-grid small villages fail to understand the key fact of illiteracy in our villages. The vital point to consider is that when technically qualified staff of concerned authorities has failed to demonstrate and make pilot scale solar generated system run efficiently, how can we expect that a nonqualified illiterate dwellers of our remote areas will supervise and operate a solar system? Further low efficiency of solar cells, non-availability of household appliances that run on low voltages, requirement and maintenance of backup energy sources like batteries for having electricity in night are other potential reasons for which dream of solar electrification in remote areas of our country could not turn into a reality. To top it all another significant barrier in promotion of solar power in Pakistan which has never been considered by the proponents of solar energy is our dusty atmosphere. Whether it is a photovoltaic type or thermal collector type solar electricity generation unit, the performance of the system directly depends upon obstacle-free contact of sunlight to the system. Any blockage of the sunlight to the system would certainly decrease the efficiency of the system. In all of our potential areas of Thar and Balochistan where solar power is being considered dust storms are a noteworthy atmospheric characteristic. Therefore a thin layer of dust particles will certainly deposit on photovoltaic device or thermal collector glass thus reducing the sunlight intensity on the system just like clouds and fog which ultimately decreases the performance of the solar system. Keeping in view these limitations of solar energy, evaluating the past poor performance of concerned institutes and considering lack of qualified manpower to design, install, supervise and operate the solar system it seems that solar power electricity generation in Pakistan even on small household scale level in remote areas is not a good proposition.

Project Evaluation:
We are evaluating here two types electricity generation resources using same variables & the method we are using is present worth cost in which we assume ♦ Land cost is zero because it is provided by govt. ♦ Interest rate is 5%. ♦ Project life is 20 years ♦ The values of plants & operating expenses are taken from international agencies.

1st Alternative: Wind Energy: Initial Expense = US $585000…. 0year Production capacity = 600KW Operating Expense = US $6750 n = 20year ROR = 5%

0
585000 6750 -

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……..

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6750

Present worth Cost = R [(1+i) ^n-1/1+i) ^n *i] + initial cost Present Worth Cost =US $ 84119.53+585000 Present Worth Cost =US $ 669119.53

2nd Alternative: Solar Energy: Initial Expense = US $ 3972577.5 ………0year Production capacity = 600KW Operating Expense = US $ 3000 n =20 ROR =5%

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3972577.5 3000 …….. …..... ……… 3000

Present worth Cost = R [(1+i) ^n-1/1+i) ^n *i] + initial cost Present Worth Cost= 3784.39+3972577.5 Present Worth Cost= US $ 4009961.89

Analysis:
After applying the present worth cost technique we can say the wind energy is beneficial because the cost of the project is lesser than that of solar power electricity plant. After evaluation we will have a closer look at the implications of wind energy plant which are ♦ Noise pollution ♦ Huge area consumed ♦ Variable energy production

Noise pollution: Wind turbines, particularly older designs, emit noise that can be heard near wind farms. According to the U.S. Renewable Energy Policy Project, the noise from a typical wind farm at 350 meters can vary between 35 and 45 decibels. Sound levels can grow with increases in wind speeds, and are objectionable to some people. To minimize noise levels, operators are using improved rotor technology, citing plants away from densely populated areas and including sound-absorbing materials in the generator. The frequency and volume of this noise can be controlled, but not eliminated by wind turbine design.

Huge area consumed: The leasing of land for wind turbines can benefit landowners in the form of increased income and land values. But in some cases, wind power development may create land conflicts. In forested areas, these developments may mean clearing trees and cutting roads. And near populated areas, wind projects may run into opposition from people who regard them as unsightly and noisy. Wind developers are using stakeholder consultation and careful project planning to address potential citing and environmental concerns. Geothermal power plants take up little land area and do not produce wastes. But depending on the technology used, they may also have environmental impacts. Geothermal power plants exploit hot, underground fluid, which consists of mostly steam and small amounts of carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulphide, methane and ammonia. The amounts of chemicals released when geothermal fields are tapped can be hazardous or objectionable to people living and working nearby. Variable energy production: Annual electricity production will vary enormously depending on the amount of wind on your turbine site. Therefore, there is not a single price for wind energy, but a range of prices, depending on wind speeds The graph below shows how the cost of electricity produced by a typical Danish 600 kW wind turbine varies with annual production.

The relationship is really very simple: If you produce twice as much energy per year, you pay half the cost per kilowatt hour. (If you believe that maintenance costs increase with turbine use, the graph might not be exactly true, but close to true).

Conclusion:
It is clear that Pakistan is a suitable country for the installation of wind, due to high winds near cities; the presence of rivers and lakes as well as the availability of wind turbines from nearby India. There are also other reasons for installing renewable energy. It is quite normal for extended power outages to happen on a daily basis in the country, but this cannot continue if the Pakistani economy is to grow. In March 2007, President Musharraf stated that renewable energy should be part of the push to increase energy supplies by 10 to 12 percent every year. The government also set a target of 10 percent of energy to come from renewable by 2015. If the new PPP-led government follows through with aggressive renewable energy push, Pakistan could be an Asian leader in renewable energy given its natural resources of wind and solar as its strategic endowments.

Future plans:
Pilot Project for Installation of Indigenously Developed Micro Wind Turbines: A total of 140 Micro Wind Turbines have been installed at various sites within Sindh and Balochistan, for providing electricity to the rural households, as well as for water pumping. (2x50) MW Wind Power Generation Project at Gharo, Sindh On commercial grid connected electricity generation program, the Government of Pakistan has decided to install 100 MW Wind Power Farm by June 2009. This program initiated by the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), involves financing through private sector, land from Government of Sindh and power purchase by NTDC for HESCO. The Government of Pakistan guarantees are backed through NEPRA. The Board has recently issued LOIs to 30 national and international companies for generation of 1500 MW power through wind energy. A wind corridor at Gharo-Keti Bandar, Sindh has been identified with an actual potential of 50,000 MW. The pre-feasibility study of the site has been done by AEDB. AEDB drafted the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and the Implementation Agreement. 8 companies with financial and technical viability have been short-listed. OEMs/Suppliers like GE, VESTAS and GAMESA have been short-listed for the project. Three companies have submitted applications to NEPRA for obtaining Generation License. NTDC has submitted the request for Power Acquisition Permission to NEPRA for procuring power from the proposed wind plants. HESCO has agreed to purchase the initial 100 MW Wind Power generated through this project. Private investors have entered the PPA negotiations with NTDC/WAPDA. Sindh Government has leased out approximately 5000 Acres of land for the project. AEDB has allocated 1000 acres of land each to five (5) investors, namely M/s New Park Energy Ltd., M/s Green Power, M/s Zephyr Ltd., M/s Win Power Ltd. and M/s Tenaga. Tariff would be determined by NEPRA in consultation with the IPP and the Power Purchaser i.e. NTDC, as per Government of Pakistan’s Policy for Power

Generation 2002, and under the Section 7(6) of the Regulation Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act (XL of) 1997 (NEPRA Act). New Transmission Network from Mirpur Sakro to Thatta is to be constructed by NTDC in order to sustain the load generated by 100 MW Wind Power. PC-I for the project has been approved by the CDWP. Once the initial target of generating 100 MW through Wind Energy is achieved, it will be upgraded to 700 MW by the year 2010 and 9700 MW by the year 2030.

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