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com

www.elsevier.com/locate/ijepes

plants considering technical, economical and reliability indices

S.M.H. Hosseini a,*, F. Forouzbakhsh b, M. Fotouhi c, M. Vakilian c

a

Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University South-Tehran Branch, Mohallati Expway, Tehran, Iran

b

Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Campus No. 2, University of Tehran, North Kargar Avenue, Tehran, Iran

c

Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran, Iran

Received 14 June 2006; received in revised form 9 January 2008; accepted 29 January 2008

Abstract

One of the most important issues in planning the reservoir type of hydro-power plants (HPP) is to determine the installation capacity of the HPPs and estimate its annual energy value. In this paper, a method is presented. A computer program has been developed to

analyze energy calculation and estimation of the most important economic indices of an HPP using the sensitivity analysis method.

Another program, developed by Matlab software, calculates the reliability indices for a number of units of an HPP with a specied load

duration curve using the Monte Carlo method. Ultimately, comparing the technical, economic and reliability indices will determine the

installation capacity of an HPP. By applying the above-mentioned algorithm to an existing HPP named Bookan (located in the westnorth of Iran); the capacity of 30 MW is obtained.

2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Reservoir type of hydro-power plant; Economic analysis; Monte Carlo method; Installation capacity

1. Introduction

HPPs have found special importance due to their relatively low administrative and executive costs and a short

construction time compared to large power plants. These

HPPs are in the reservoir (annual or seasonal regulation reservoir) category with a domain capacity from

10 MW and upper. The generated capacity is based on

the accumulation of water reservoir and consists of a reservoir dam, penstock, power house, and tailrace structure

of the body of HPP, as well as, other electrical and

mechanical equipments. Seasonal regulation of the water

volume in the headpond is used to get maximum power

from the HPP during peak and base hours. The amount

of energy generated during dierent daily hours and/or

dierent seasons of the year are the most important

*

E-mail address: smhh110@yahoo.com (S.M.H. Hosseini).

0142-0615/$ - see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2008.01.002

issues worthy of study in the reservoir type of HPPs studies. In other words, calculating the suitable installation

capacity is one of the most important factors in planning

HPPs.

2. Installation capacity

To determine the installation capacity of HPPs all

technical, economic and reliability indices are considered

in the trade-o relations. Using this approach, the

amount of annual energy is determined by using categorized statistics of the output and overow volume of

water in dierent months or even days. Then, after specifying the income and costs of the plant, the economic

indices of dierent alternatives are extracted then the reliability index is calculated. Ultimately, through comparison of the technical, economic and reliability indices, a

superior alternative can be selected, determining the

installation capacity.

394

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

PFi ea =P i 8760

The calculation of energy is based on the status table of

the output and overow of the accessible water monthly

and even daily, as well as the net level of water recorded

in dierent years. The net height of the reservoir is a function of the input of water into reservoir and also the level of

the water in the reservoir. Therefore, the height is not xed

in dierent months. The useful net height can be extracted

from the subtraction of the level of water in the reservoir

and the level of axis of turbine. Basically, the relationship

between power and water ow and the head water is as

below

P 9:81 g Q H A Q:H

kW

which

A = (q g g)/1000 is a coecient

g = the eciency of the turbine/generator

Q = design ow through the turbine (m3/s)

H = net (eective) head (m)

q = water density (kg/m3)

g = 9.81 (m/s2)

ei = Pi ti (kW h) as generated energy

epi = Pi (365 tp) (kW h) peak generated energy

em (kW h) monthly generated energy

Pi (kW) rated power

ti (h) operation hours

tp (h) daily peak hours

P

ea 12

n1 emn (kW h) annually generated energy

Due to considering the above-mentioned items in dierent months and also days, the maximum eciency of HPP

and the earned energy can be calculated. Ultimately, the

mean gained energy can be estimated. It should be noted

that due to the section type of the turbine according to

the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) standard, and

the other constraints of the turbine in the output and the

net height of the reservoir the calculations are being done.

Fig. 1 shows the energy calculation algorithm.

In addition, with respect to the by-laws of the Iranian

Ministry of Energy regarding energy purchases, energy

generation in a day must be divided into three dierent

types: peak load (4 h), normal load (12 h), and low load

(8 h). The high value of energy is categorized based on

the peak, normal and low loads, respectively, so the planner can choose dierent alternatives with the highest energy

generation relative to the load. While coordinating between

energy in peak and base states, the technical indices such as

the plant factor of an HPP should be within a reasonable

and acceptable limit. With respect to the role of a medium

size of HPP (between 10 and 100 MW) in the power system

network, the recommended index sizes a gure between

29% and 45% [1] while for large size of HPP this gure

would be lower (25% or less).

T i ea =P i ;

T i =8760;

In this section, the method of evaluation of income and

costs and ultimately, the economic analysis of HPPs are

described. The costs of the project are divided into two categories: investment and annual costs. Investment costs

include civil costs, electro-mechanical equipment, power

transmission line, and other indirect costs. Annual costs

include the depreciation of equipment, operating and maintenance, and replacement costs [2]. The income of the project is based solely on the sale of electrical energy.

2.2.1. Investment costs

Civil costs: Consist of the construction and hydro-structural costs of the project, including a reservoir dam, the

water penstock structure, the power house, the tailrace

structure, the access road and any future unpredicted costs

taken from the preliminary designs of a feasibility study.

Electro-mechanical equipment costs: Include turbines,

generators, governors, gates, control systems, a power substation, electrical, and mechanical auxiliary equipment, etc.

[2,3].

Power transmission line costs: Include a power transmission line for delivering generated energy from the power

plant to power transmission network. The transmission

line cost depends on the location, type of existing system

(overhead line or cable system), and the capacity of HPP

as well as length of transmission lines, which have a very

high eect on the project costs.

Indirect costs: Include Engineering and Design (E&D),

Supervision and Administration (S&A), and ination costs

during the construction period.

E&D costs: These costs are aected by many parameters, such as type, size and location where the project is

being constructed. The E&D costs are usually expressed

as a percentage of construction costs, including civil and

equipment costs, and the amount of this percent diers

from one location to another. Recently, a case study on

these HPPs has shown that this gure could range from

5% for small and medium sized projects, to 8%, for very

large sized projects [4,5].

S&A costs: These costs include the purchase of land,

management, inspection and supervision costs, and other

miscellaneous costs in the region. Similar to the E&D costs,

the S&A costs are expressed as a percentage of the construction costs. A recent case study on HPPs has shown

that this gure could be anywhere from 6% to 8% [4,5].

Inflation costs during construction: To precisely calculate

the investment cost of a project, it is necessary to take into

account the ination rate during the course of the project

and adjust the investment cost with respect to the ination

rate. The ination rate of future years should be determined

by obtaining the average of previous years ination rate.

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

395

Input Data

Output & overflow of water

Water level limits (Reservoir and tailrace)

Net head

A=Ax

A: Alternative

Ax: xth alternative

n=1

n: statistical year

(Considering the condition of the turbine operation & Hill Chart curve and its efficiency)

P = 9.81. . Q . H = A. Q.H

Ax= Ax+1

j=12

n =n + 1

J=1

If n nmax

N

If Ax Amax

N

Output:

Different alternatives Installation capacity & average annual energy

nmax

E ave = ( e ay ) / n max

y =1

Output:

Technical index plant factor for different alternatives

END

Fig. 1. Energy calculation algorithm.

In addition to investment costs, annual costs should be

calculated to obtain the net benet of a project. Annual

costs include depreciation of equipment, Operating &

Maintenance (O&M), and replacement and renovation

costs.

Depreciation of equipment: In the economical analysis of

the project, depreciation and other factors aecting the

equipment should be considered.

insurance, tax, duties, landscape, and consumable materials. These costs are increased only by the annual ination

coecient. A 5% ination rate is used in the economical

calculations. The costs which are related to the salary/wage

and consumable materials make up one percent of annual

investment costs, and insurance, tax, duties, charges, and

unpredicted cases are also taken as one percent of annual

investment costs. It should be noted that in order to

396

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

calculate investment costs, the interest rate during construction should also be considered [46].

Replacement and renovation costs: The main parts of the

HPP, such as generator windings, turbine runners and

other parts will eventually need replacement and renovation. To estimate the costs for large and medium sized

power plants, the percentage of renovation and replacement should be determined for dierent sections separately [2,3].

2.2.3. Income and benefits

There are two benets for the HPPs: (1) tangible benets; (2) intangible benets. The tangible benet is the sale

of electrical energy. Based on approval by Iranian regulators, the purchase of electrical energy from HPPs has been

guaranteed by the Iranian Ministry of Energy in which the

purchase will be done from four sectors: (1) the governmental sector without transmission lines; (2) the governmental sector with transmission lines; (3) the private

sector without transmission lines; (4) the private sector

with transmission lines. In each case, the electrical energy

purchasing rates are being provided in dierent months

of the year based on the peak load (4 h in a day), normal

load (12 h in a day) and low load (8 h in a day). Meanwhile,

for the private sector, dierent purchase rates are being

presented with four options, namely, 100%, 75%, 50%,

and 25% of private investment. Due to peak hours of

energy consumption, the purchasing rate would be more

attractive for the producer of energy. The annual ination-purchasing rate is being considered to be 5% in the calculation. The intangible benets cover the positive

environmental eects, ood control, agriculture and irrigation, sh farm pools, camps and recreation centers which

eventually turn into quantitative values. The intangible

benets are not included in this economic analysis of the

project, but naturally a more desirable result will be

obtained for the economic indices when taking these factors into account [24].

2.2.4. Financial and time specification

Capital depreciation period for construction

costs:

Replacement and renovation of electromechanical equipment:

Duration of construction:

Annual interest rate:

Annual ination rate:

50

years

25

years

3 years

620%

5%

Table 1 shows the capital distribution during the investment period. This table presents construction time from 1

to 6 years [24] in this table, the construction costs are

expensed in the relevant subsequent years. Thus, with the

eects of interest and ination, the costs of the subsequent

years can be predicted. Social and economic factors could

also be included in this calculation. When execution activities begin, the annual payments should be expensed in the

midyear, in order to lessen the eect of ination, thus low-

Table 1

Distribution of costs versus construction years

Construction years

1 (%)

2 (%)

3 (%)

4 (%)

5 (%)

6 (%)

1

2

3

4

5

6

100

77

37

16

9

6

23

56

62

49

31

7

18

30

40

4

9

15

3

6

Table 1, for a 3-year construction project, the percentages

of the cost in each year are as follows: 37% of capital in

the middle of the rst year, 56% in the middle of the second

year, and 7% in the middle of the third year.

2.2.5. Economical calculation

According to the previous sections, an algorithm has

been developed for the economical calculation. Fig. 2 shows

the economical calculation algorithm. In this algorithm the

economical indices are such as benet to cost (B/C), net

present value (NPV), expenses for each kilowatt hour ($/

kW h), depth coverage ratio stands for (DCR) and return

on equity stands for (ROE). Some of the required equations

in the analysis are given in the Table A.1 of the appendix.

2.3. Reliability calculation

The reliability index of Loss of Load Expectation

(LOLE) is calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation

[7,8]. This method is one of the strongest engineering tools

that enable us to perform a statistical analysis of the uncertainties involved in engineering problems. This method is

very applicable in solving complicated problems where

many random variables are involved in non-linear equations. The Monte Carlo analysis can be imagined as a simulation method, which replaces a practical execution with a

computer simulation. The basis of the Monte Carlo analysis is to produce a series of random numbers. The produced

homogenous random numbers retain the same characteristics of the probability of their occurrences in the selected

domain between 0 and 1. In this method, n random numbers are rst generated for each one of the existing random

parameters in the given equation and this equation is then

solved for each single random selected number. Finally,

n values are obtained for the concerned equation by

using the related relations to obtain the statistical information of the histogram sample. It should be noted that as the

number of iterations increase, the answer would more closely approach the real value. With a decreasing probability

of not supplying electricity to subscribers (customers) there

is a direct relation to an increase in the number of generation units and as a result, an increase in investment design

status and/or utilization. More investment will denitely

lead to an increase in utilization costs, which should be

reected in the tari of energy sale. Subsequently, economic limitations would lead to a decrease in the reliability

397

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Input Data

Installation Capacity

Total annual Energy (Base & Peak)

Sale of Energy

Hard Costs

Soft Costs

i= ix

i (1 + i)

(1+ i)n 1

Acc=P1

C=

t =1

i (1+ i)

(1+ i)n 1

n

n: life cycle of project

A1=C

AO&M= 0.02 A1

j=1

j: Number of life cycle year of project

ix = 6%, 8%,

Ct (1 + i)

Ct: Distribution of construction cost

x: Number of construction years

A1: Annual uniform costs

AO&M: O&M costs

Tc: total annual cost

10%, 12%,14%,

16%, 18%, &

20%

Calculation of

senility analysis for

interest rates

TEP = purchase

TEP: total energy purchase

PWF=

Tc = Acc + AO&M + Rc

Rc: Replacement & renovation cost

(1 + i) j

PWC= Tc PWF

PWB= TEP PWF

PWS= PWC - PWB

j=j+1

PWC: Present worth costs

PWB: Present worth benefits

PWS: Present worth (costs benefits)

if j n / 2 = 25

Y

If j n = 50

N

Output

Economical indices, B/C, NPV, $/kWh, DCR, ROE

END

Fig. 2. Economical calculation algorithm.

between reliability and economic restrictions that could

lead to dicult managerial decisions in both the design

and operational stages [7,9]. In general, a study of the reliability of the three sections of generation, transmission and

distribution of power systems should be done. In this

paper, only generation reliability is being considered to

meet the load demands. The transmission and distribution

reliability have been assumed to be perfect (reliabil-

Monte Carlo method, is in Fig. 3 [8].

3. Case study

The case study of a medium size of HPP Bookan dam

is presented. This HPP is located in the West Azarbaijan

Province of Iran. This HPP is the reservoir type and the

goal is to determine the suitable installation capacity.

398

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Table A.1

Shows summary of interest formulas for economic evaluations

Name of formula

To nd

Given

Equation

Use

n

Signal present worth

F

P

P

F

F = p(1 + i)

1

P F 1i

n

Uniform sinking fund

F

A

A

F

F A 1ii 1

A F 1ii n 1

i1i

A P 1i

n

1

n

1

A 1i

i1in

Find a present sum equivalent to a future sum

Find a future sum equivalent to a uniform series of end-of-period sums

Find a uniform series end-of-period sum equivalent to a future sum

Find a uniform series end-of-period sum equivalent to a present sum

Find a present sum equivalent to a uniform series of end-of-period sums

Variable denitions: P is a present sum of memory F is a future sum of memory at the end of N periods i is an interest or discount rate per period n is the

number of interest or discounting periods A is a end-of-period payment (or receipt) in a uniform series of payments (or receipts) over N periods at i interest

or discount rate.

i , i , PGi

Input

i = 1,..., G

Drawing of load duration curve

Ai =

i

i + i

i = 1,..., G

n=1 , i = 1, pt = 0 , LOLE= 0

Random selection of one day in year and the related load of it (PL)

Ai Ri ?

Y

Pt = Pt + PGi

N

i= G ?

i=i+1

Y

Y

Pt PL ?

N

LOLE = LOLE +1

N

i=1

n=n+1

Pt = 0

LOLE =

n=Iterations ?

Iterations

LOLE days

years

Output

Fig. 3. The LOLE calculation algorithm, using the Monte Carlo method.

The simulation has been done for a period of 33 years

according to the data extracted from 1964 to 1997. In this

case, the monthly net output (output plus overow) in reservoir and net height in the reservoir for dierent months

which have been given in the followings (the dierence

between the level of water in reservoir and the level of axis

399

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

1421 m, and the installation level of turbines is

about 1380 m. Therefore the max height of the HPP is

about 41 m. According to the recommendations given by

the USBR standards, the constraints of vertical Francis

turbine are as below

The minimum admitted ow of turbine is about 40% of

the designed rated ow;

The maximum admitted ow of turbine is about 110%

of the designed rated ow;

The minimum operational height of turbine is about

65% of the designed operational height;

The maximum operational height of turbine is about

125% of the designed operational height;

Table 2

Obtained annual energy for dierent alternatives of Bookan HPP

Alternative

number

and number of units

(N MW)

The rated

power

(MW)

The mean

annual

energy

(GW h)

Plant

factor

(PF) (%)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

2 2.5

2 3.75

25

2 6.25

2 7.5

2 8.75

2 10

2 11.25

2 12.5

2 13.75

2 15

3 10

2 16.25

2 17.5

2 18.75

3 12.5

2 20

4 10

2 22.5

3 15

2 25

4 12.5

3 17.5

3 20

4 15

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

27.5

30

30

32.5

35

37.5

37.5

40

40

45

45

50

50

52.5

60

60

25.33

36.80

47.23

57.67

67.26

76.03

83.41

89.20

93.19

96.52

99.40

99.73

101.71

103.65

105.31

107.99

107.64

110.85

112.52

115.40

116.14

119.80

120.28

124.55

127.43

0.58

0.56

0.54

0.53

0.51

0.50

0.48

0.45

0.43

0.40

0.38

0.38

0.36

0.34

0.32

0.33

0.31

0.32

0.29

0.29

0.27

0.27

0.26

0.24

0.24

3

2.5

2

DCR

been extracted for this duration. According to the special

specication of the plant and the feasibility study, dierent

alternatives have been considered, based on the expertise

judgment. In these alternatives, the calculated energy is

based on the dierent number of the vertical Francis turbines. Ultimately, the annual energy is being drawn after

getting mean value of them [10].

P

ea1 em1 em12 n12

n1 emn [kW h] the rst annual

energy in year 1964

ea2

[kW h] the second

annual energy in year

1965

eyearnumber

ea33

[kW h] the last annual

energy in year 1997

P

Eave y33

e

=33

[kW h] average annual

ay

y1

energy in 33 years

1.5

1

results have been extracted:

0.5

0

1

The nominal height of is about 32.5 m;

The maximum permanent overload of the generators is

about 10%;

The accessibility of the HPP has been considered to be

98%;

The results associated with dierent alternatives are

given in Table 2.

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49

Year

Fig. 4. DCR index value for 50 life cycle of Bookan HPP, interest rate:

8%.

1

0.5

costs of the Bookan HPP have been extracted from the feasibility study. These costs for a mean duration of HPP is

about US$1000/kW (US$600/kW for civil works and

US$400/kW for the equipments).

The economic analysis has been carried out considering costs and obtained incomes, according to the given

ROE

0

1

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49

-0.5

-1

-1.5

Year

Fig. 5. ROE index value for 50 life cycle of Bookan HPP, interest rate:

8%.

400

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Table 3

Economic indices of dierent alternatives with private section contribution for Bookan HPP (the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for

annual cost)

Alternative

number

units (N MW)

The rated

power (MW)

Final costs

(USCent/kW h)

B/C

NPV

(US$million)

Final costs

(USCent/kW h)

B/C

NPV

(US$million)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

2 2.5

2 3.75

25

2 6.25

2 7.5

2 8.75

2 10

2 11.25

2 12.5

2 13.75

2 15

3 10

2 16.25

2 17.5

2 18.75

3 12.5

2 20

4 10

2 22.5

3 15

2 25

4 12.5

3 17.5

3 20

4 15

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

27.5

30

30

32.5

35

37.5

37.5

40

40

45

45

50

50

52.5

60

60

1.70

1.76

1.82

1.87

1.93

1.99

2.07

2.18

2.31

2.45

2.60

2.60

2.75

2.92

3.05

3.05

3.17

3.17

3.40

3.40

3.65

3.65

3.76

4.11

4.11

2.28

2.21

2.12

2.07

2.02

1.95

1.87

1.78

1.68

1.58

1.49

1.49

1.41

1.33

1.27

1.27

1.23

1.23

1.14

1.14

1.06

1.06

1.03

0.94

0.94

7.41

10.49

13.02

15.57

17.67

19.34

20.20

20.41

19.59

18.43

17.08

17.08

15.34

13.45

11.78

11.78

10.44

10.44

7.25

7.25

3.54

3.54

1.83

3.88

3.88

2.11

2.17

2.25

2.31

2.37

2.45

2.55

2.69

2.86

3.04

3.21

3.21

3.40

3.60

3.76

3.76

3.90

3.90

4.20

4.20

4.51

4.51

4.64

5.07

5.07

1.82

1.76

1.70

1.66

1.61

1.56

1.50

1.43

1.34

1.26

1.19

1.19

1.12

1.06

1.02

1.02

0.98

0.98

0.91

0.91

0.85

0.85

0.82

0.75

0.75

4.63

6.46

7.86

9.28

10.34

11.08

11.19

10.78

9.58

8.11

6.50

6.50

4.58

2.54

0.68

0.68

0.92

0.92

4.53

4.53

8.55

8.55

10.44

16.58

16.58

PG = 10 and 15 MW

rated capacity of

generating units

HPPs life time

failures rate

repairs rate

N = 50 (years)

k = 1/25 (f/years)

l = 2 (r/years)

16

14

12

investor may receive a loan from a nancial source and

pay it back with a specic interest rate through annual

installments during the utilization stage. The economic

analysis has been calculated for fully governmental, fully

private and governmental-private nancings, then the

economic indices including B/C, NPV, DCR, ROE (see

Figs. 4 and 5) and US$/kW h of energy have been calculated. The interest rate has been settled as 8% and 10%

in order to attract foreign investment in developing

countries. This rate is considered a normal rate by global

nancial institutes for economic feasibility studies of

water resource development, and the results have been

presented in Table 3. In all the cases the eect of interest

rate changes is studied by sensitivity analysis. As it is

shown in the table, the economic indices of dierent

alternatives with private section contribution have been

brought into calculation or Bookan HPP with the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for annual

cost.

10

2

To study the eects of an increase in the number of generation units and subsequently, an increase in the cost on

the LOLE index, various combinations of generation units

are being used for the Bookan HPP, each with the following specications:

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Number of trials

Fig. 6. The graph of calculated LOLE with the Monte Carlo method for

option 4 (min and max load between 10 and 30 MW).

401

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

suitable loss of load expectation (LOLE) index of 10

days/year. By increasing the installed capacity, the LOLE

decreases so that even with a 3 10 MW installation

capacity (option 4) the failure will reach minimum and will

even become a zero value. It should be noted that with such

a situation, more expense for generating a kW h electrical

energy is required, obviously not desirable. Furthermore,

the PF and the economic indices are also not suitable. With

an installation capacity of 2 15 MW, the number of failures, PF and other economic indices are very relatively proportional and the costs of a kW h energy is also at an

acceptable limit.

Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of interest rate from

6 % to 20 % have been calculated and the results are shown

in Table 5. As it is shown in the table, Economic analysis

results on alternative no. 11 with dierent interest rates

with the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is

5% for annual cost and the index of reliability for the Bookan HPP.

Table 4

Index of reliability for the Bookan HPP

LOLE index (day/year)

Option

1

Option

2

Option

3

Option

4

101

132

180

230

10

9.5

100

130

7.2

10

10

11

6.9

6.5

12.6

15

Minimum load

(MW)

Maximum load

(MW)

5

10

10

15

25

25

30

30

The minimum and maximum load values are considered based on the loads in dierent years. The specications of the loads are as follows (a sensitivity analysis

has also been performed on the load values for more

assurance):

PLmax 35 MW average maximum load

PLmin 5 MW

the Monte Carlo algorithm. Installing dierent numbers

of generation units created the following possible options;

8

Option1 2 20 MW

>

>

>

< Option2 2 12:5 MW

>

Option3 2 15 MW

>

>

:

Option4 3 10 MW

4. Conclusion

1. One of the most important issues in designing an HPP is

to determine the suitable installation capacity. In this

paper, the methods of energy and the economic and reliability calculation have been presented. This algorithm

has been studied for a sample HPP.

2. The economic indices have been calculated based on the

developed algorithm and conducting a number of sensitivity analysis.

3. The reliability indices have been calculated by employing the Monte Carlo method based on an algorithm.

4. The calculated installation capacity has been obtained

by establishing a compromise between the technical,

economic and the reliability indices.

5. The aforementioned method has been applied to a sample HPP named Bookan by comparing the plant factor (PF), the B/C, NPV, USCent/kW h, and the

reliability index LOLE, so the optimal installation

capacity of 30 MW has been obtained.

option 4 has shown in Fig. 6.

The results of these calculations are listed in Table 4. As

it is shown in the table, the index of reliability for the Bookan HPP has been calculated.

3.4. Results analysis

With respect to the results presented in Tables 24 and

studying the technical, economic and reliability indices,

the alternative no. 11 is clearly the best option, with a

30 MW installation capacity, an annual energy of

99.40 GW h, a plant factor (PF) of 38%, a B/C that equals

1.49 (for ination rate equal 8%), a NPV equal to

Table 5

Economic analysis results on alternative no. 11 with dierent interest rates (the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for annual cost)

Interest rate(%)

Unit

10

12

14

16

18

20

Energy cost

Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 1)

Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.75)

Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.5)

Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.25)

Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0)

Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 1)

Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.75)

Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.5)

Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.25)

Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0)

USCent/kW h

2.02

1.94

1.78

1.62

1.46

0.73

34.17

28.41

22.64

16.88

9.74

2.60

1.49

1.37

1.25

1.13

0.56

17.08

12.84

8.60

4.35

15.23

3.21

1.19

1.09

1

0.9

0.45

6.50

3.20

0.10

3.40

18.62

3.84

0.98

0.9

0.82

0.74

0.37

0.51

3.18

5.86

8.53

20.88

4.47

0.83

0.77

0.7

0.63

0.31

5.42

7.66

9.90

12.15

22.50

5.11

0.72

0.66

0.6

0.55

0.27

9.04

10.96

12.89

14.81

23.71

5.75

0.64

0.58

0.53

0.48

0.24

11.80

13.49

15.18

16.86

24.65

6.39

0.57

0.52

0.47

0.43

0.21

13.99

15.49

16.99

18.49

25.41

US$million

US$million

US$million

US$million

US$million

Notice: P/t: Ratio of private section investment to total in percent. B/C: Benet cost ratio. NPV: Net present value.

402

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Appendix A

See Table A.1.

References

[1] Energy Ministry of China. Hydro power plant hand book Chinese

standard; 1990. p. 1805.

[2] Hosseini SMH, Forouzbakhsh F, Vakilian M. Economical analysis

of nancing on medium and small hydro power plants Hydro2005.

In: International conferences on hydropower and dams Villach.

Austria; October 2005. p. 1720.

[3] Iran Water and Power development resources Company (IWPCO).

Studies management oce (2003) economic regulation of medium

hydro-power plants. Ministry of Energy of Iran, Small and Medium

Sized Power Plants Department; 2003.

[4] Hosseini SMH, Forouzbakhsh F. Determination of optimal installation capacity of small hydro-power plants considering technical

economic and reliability indices, energy policy. Elsevier J

2005;33(15):194856. October.

[5] Engineering and design hydropower, handbook, vol. II. Washington,

DC: U.S. Army Crops Engineering, Department of the Army; 1985.

p. 126 [chapter 8].

[6] International Atomic Energy Agency. Expansion planning for

electrical generating systems. A guide book. Vienna; 1984. p. 15571.

[7] Billinton R, Allan R. Reliability evaluation of power systems. 2nd

ed.; 1996. p. 40040 [chapter 12].

[8] Billinton R, Allan R. Reliability evaluation of engineering systems.

2nd ed.; 1987. p. 372400 [chapter 13].

[9] IEEE. IEEE recommended practice for design reliable industrial and

commercial power systems (guide book); 1985.

[10] Ministry of Energy of Iran. Iran water and power development

resources Company (IWPCO). Medium and small-size power plants

report of bookan power plant; 2002.

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