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Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402


www.elsevier.com/locate/ijepes

Determination of installation capacity in reservoir hydro-power


plants considering technical, economical and reliability indices
S.M.H. Hosseini a,*, F. Forouzbakhsh b, M. Fotouhi c, M. Vakilian c
a

Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University South-Tehran Branch, Mohallati Expway, Tehran, Iran
b
Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Campus No. 2, University of Tehran, North Kargar Avenue, Tehran, Iran
c
Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Avenue, Tehran, Iran
Received 14 June 2006; received in revised form 9 January 2008; accepted 29 January 2008

Abstract
One of the most important issues in planning the reservoir type of hydro-power plants (HPP) is to determine the installation capacity of the HPPs and estimate its annual energy value. In this paper, a method is presented. A computer program has been developed to
analyze energy calculation and estimation of the most important economic indices of an HPP using the sensitivity analysis method.
Another program, developed by Matlab software, calculates the reliability indices for a number of units of an HPP with a specied load
duration curve using the Monte Carlo method. Ultimately, comparing the technical, economic and reliability indices will determine the
installation capacity of an HPP. By applying the above-mentioned algorithm to an existing HPP named Bookan (located in the westnorth of Iran); the capacity of 30 MW is obtained.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Reservoir type of hydro-power plant; Economic analysis; Monte Carlo method; Installation capacity

1. Introduction
HPPs have found special importance due to their relatively low administrative and executive costs and a short
construction time compared to large power plants. These
HPPs are in the reservoir (annual or seasonal regulation reservoir) category with a domain capacity from
10 MW and upper. The generated capacity is based on
the accumulation of water reservoir and consists of a reservoir dam, penstock, power house, and tailrace structure
of the body of HPP, as well as, other electrical and
mechanical equipments. Seasonal regulation of the water
volume in the headpond is used to get maximum power
from the HPP during peak and base hours. The amount
of energy generated during dierent daily hours and/or
dierent seasons of the year are the most important
*

Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 2188738166; fax: +98 2188737752.


E-mail address: smhh110@yahoo.com (S.M.H. Hosseini).

0142-0615/$ - see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2008.01.002

issues worthy of study in the reservoir type of HPPs studies. In other words, calculating the suitable installation
capacity is one of the most important factors in planning
HPPs.
2. Installation capacity
To determine the installation capacity of HPPs all
technical, economic and reliability indices are considered
in the trade-o relations. Using this approach, the
amount of annual energy is determined by using categorized statistics of the output and overow volume of
water in dierent months or even days. Then, after specifying the income and costs of the plant, the economic
indices of dierent alternatives are extracted then the reliability index is calculated. Ultimately, through comparison of the technical, economic and reliability indices, a
superior alternative can be selected, determining the
installation capacity.

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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

PFi ea =P i  8760

2.1. Energy calculation


The calculation of energy is based on the status table of
the output and overow of the accessible water monthly
and even daily, as well as the net level of water recorded
in dierent years. The net height of the reservoir is a function of the input of water into reservoir and also the level of
the water in the reservoir. Therefore, the height is not xed
in dierent months. The useful net height can be extracted
from the subtraction of the level of water in the reservoir
and the level of axis of turbine. Basically, the relationship
between power and water ow and the head water is as
below
P 9:81  g  Q  H A  Q:H

kW

which
A = (q  g  g)/1000 is a coecient
g = the eciency of the turbine/generator
Q = design ow through the turbine (m3/s)
H = net (eective) head (m)
q = water density (kg/m3)
g = 9.81 (m/s2)
ei = Pi  ti (kW h) as generated energy
epi = Pi  (365  tp) (kW h) peak generated energy
em (kW h) monthly generated energy
Pi (kW) rated power
ti (h) operation hours
tp (h) daily peak hours
P
ea 12
n1 emn (kW h) annually generated energy
Due to considering the above-mentioned items in dierent months and also days, the maximum eciency of HPP
and the earned energy can be calculated. Ultimately, the
mean gained energy can be estimated. It should be noted
that due to the section type of the turbine according to
the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) standard, and
the other constraints of the turbine in the output and the
net height of the reservoir the calculations are being done.
Fig. 1 shows the energy calculation algorithm.
In addition, with respect to the by-laws of the Iranian
Ministry of Energy regarding energy purchases, energy
generation in a day must be divided into three dierent
types: peak load (4 h), normal load (12 h), and low load
(8 h). The high value of energy is categorized based on
the peak, normal and low loads, respectively, so the planner can choose dierent alternatives with the highest energy
generation relative to the load. While coordinating between
energy in peak and base states, the technical indices such as
the plant factor of an HPP should be within a reasonable
and acceptable limit. With respect to the role of a medium
size of HPP (between 10 and 100 MW) in the power system
network, the recommended index sizes a gure between
29% and 45% [1] while for large size of HPP this gure
would be lower (25% or less).
T i ea =P i ;

hannual operation hours

T i =8760;

plant factor of hydro-power plant

2.2. Economical calculation


In this section, the method of evaluation of income and
costs and ultimately, the economic analysis of HPPs are
described. The costs of the project are divided into two categories: investment and annual costs. Investment costs
include civil costs, electro-mechanical equipment, power
transmission line, and other indirect costs. Annual costs
include the depreciation of equipment, operating and maintenance, and replacement costs [2]. The income of the project is based solely on the sale of electrical energy.
2.2.1. Investment costs
Civil costs: Consist of the construction and hydro-structural costs of the project, including a reservoir dam, the
water penstock structure, the power house, the tailrace
structure, the access road and any future unpredicted costs
taken from the preliminary designs of a feasibility study.
Electro-mechanical equipment costs: Include turbines,
generators, governors, gates, control systems, a power substation, electrical, and mechanical auxiliary equipment, etc.
[2,3].
Power transmission line costs: Include a power transmission line for delivering generated energy from the power
plant to power transmission network. The transmission
line cost depends on the location, type of existing system
(overhead line or cable system), and the capacity of HPP
as well as length of transmission lines, which have a very
high eect on the project costs.
Indirect costs: Include Engineering and Design (E&D),
Supervision and Administration (S&A), and ination costs
during the construction period.
E&D costs: These costs are aected by many parameters, such as type, size and location where the project is
being constructed. The E&D costs are usually expressed
as a percentage of construction costs, including civil and
equipment costs, and the amount of this percent diers
from one location to another. Recently, a case study on
these HPPs has shown that this gure could range from
5% for small and medium sized projects, to 8%, for very
large sized projects [4,5].
S&A costs: These costs include the purchase of land,
management, inspection and supervision costs, and other
miscellaneous costs in the region. Similar to the E&D costs,
the S&A costs are expressed as a percentage of the construction costs. A recent case study on HPPs has shown
that this gure could be anywhere from 6% to 8% [4,5].
Inflation costs during construction: To precisely calculate
the investment cost of a project, it is necessary to take into
account the ination rate during the course of the project
and adjust the investment cost with respect to the ination
rate. The ination rate of future years should be determined
by obtaining the average of previous years ination rate.

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

395

Input Data
Output & overflow of water
Water level limits (Reservoir and tailrace)
Net head

A=Ax
A: Alternative
Ax: xth alternative

n=1
n: statistical year

Calculation of min & max of absorbable power


(Considering the condition of the turbine operation & Hill Chart curve and its efficiency)

Calculation of net output power


P = 9.81. . Q . H = A. Q.H

Ax= Ax+1

Estimated assignment the number of power generation units

Calculation of total annual energy


j=12

ea1 = em1 + ... + em12 = emj

n =n + 1

J=1

If n nmax
N

If Ax Amax
N

Output:
Different alternatives Installation capacity & average annual energy
nmax

E ave = ( e ay ) / n max
y =1

Output:
Technical index plant factor for different alternatives

PF = E ave /( P . 8760 ) = T / 8760


END
Fig. 1. Energy calculation algorithm.

2.2.2. Annual costs


In addition to investment costs, annual costs should be
calculated to obtain the net benet of a project. Annual
costs include depreciation of equipment, Operating &
Maintenance (O&M), and replacement and renovation
costs.
Depreciation of equipment: In the economical analysis of
the project, depreciation and other factors aecting the
equipment should be considered.

O&M costs: Include salary/wages of personnel, labor,


insurance, tax, duties, landscape, and consumable materials. These costs are increased only by the annual ination
coecient. A 5% ination rate is used in the economical
calculations. The costs which are related to the salary/wage
and consumable materials make up one percent of annual
investment costs, and insurance, tax, duties, charges, and
unpredicted cases are also taken as one percent of annual
investment costs. It should be noted that in order to

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calculate investment costs, the interest rate during construction should also be considered [46].
Replacement and renovation costs: The main parts of the
HPP, such as generator windings, turbine runners and
other parts will eventually need replacement and renovation. To estimate the costs for large and medium sized
power plants, the percentage of renovation and replacement should be determined for dierent sections separately [2,3].
2.2.3. Income and benefits
There are two benets for the HPPs: (1) tangible benets; (2) intangible benets. The tangible benet is the sale
of electrical energy. Based on approval by Iranian regulators, the purchase of electrical energy from HPPs has been
guaranteed by the Iranian Ministry of Energy in which the
purchase will be done from four sectors: (1) the governmental sector without transmission lines; (2) the governmental sector with transmission lines; (3) the private
sector without transmission lines; (4) the private sector
with transmission lines. In each case, the electrical energy
purchasing rates are being provided in dierent months
of the year based on the peak load (4 h in a day), normal
load (12 h in a day) and low load (8 h in a day). Meanwhile,
for the private sector, dierent purchase rates are being
presented with four options, namely, 100%, 75%, 50%,
and 25% of private investment. Due to peak hours of
energy consumption, the purchasing rate would be more
attractive for the producer of energy. The annual ination-purchasing rate is being considered to be 5% in the calculation. The intangible benets cover the positive
environmental eects, ood control, agriculture and irrigation, sh farm pools, camps and recreation centers which
eventually turn into quantitative values. The intangible
benets are not included in this economic analysis of the
project, but naturally a more desirable result will be
obtained for the economic indices when taking these factors into account [24].
2.2.4. Financial and time specification
Capital depreciation period for construction
costs:
Replacement and renovation of electromechanical equipment:
Duration of construction:
Annual interest rate:
Annual ination rate:

50
years
25
years
3 years
620%
5%

Table 1 shows the capital distribution during the investment period. This table presents construction time from 1
to 6 years [24] in this table, the construction costs are
expensed in the relevant subsequent years. Thus, with the
eects of interest and ination, the costs of the subsequent
years can be predicted. Social and economic factors could
also be included in this calculation. When execution activities begin, the annual payments should be expensed in the
midyear, in order to lessen the eect of ination, thus low-

Table 1
Distribution of costs versus construction years
Construction years

1 (%)

2 (%)

3 (%)

4 (%)

5 (%)

6 (%)

1
2
3
4
5
6

100
77
37
16
9
6

23
56
62
49
31

7
18
30
40

4
9
15

3
6

ering the investment value. For example, according to


Table 1, for a 3-year construction project, the percentages
of the cost in each year are as follows: 37% of capital in
the middle of the rst year, 56% in the middle of the second
year, and 7% in the middle of the third year.
2.2.5. Economical calculation
According to the previous sections, an algorithm has
been developed for the economical calculation. Fig. 2 shows
the economical calculation algorithm. In this algorithm the
economical indices are such as benet to cost (B/C), net
present value (NPV), expenses for each kilowatt hour ($/
kW h), depth coverage ratio stands for (DCR) and return
on equity stands for (ROE). Some of the required equations
in the analysis are given in the Table A.1 of the appendix.
2.3. Reliability calculation
The reliability index of Loss of Load Expectation
(LOLE) is calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation
[7,8]. This method is one of the strongest engineering tools
that enable us to perform a statistical analysis of the uncertainties involved in engineering problems. This method is
very applicable in solving complicated problems where
many random variables are involved in non-linear equations. The Monte Carlo analysis can be imagined as a simulation method, which replaces a practical execution with a
computer simulation. The basis of the Monte Carlo analysis is to produce a series of random numbers. The produced
homogenous random numbers retain the same characteristics of the probability of their occurrences in the selected
domain between 0 and 1. In this method, n random numbers are rst generated for each one of the existing random
parameters in the given equation and this equation is then
solved for each single random selected number. Finally,
n values are obtained for the concerned equation by
using the related relations to obtain the statistical information of the histogram sample. It should be noted that as the
number of iterations increase, the answer would more closely approach the real value. With a decreasing probability
of not supplying electricity to subscribers (customers) there
is a direct relation to an increase in the number of generation units and as a result, an increase in investment design
status and/or utilization. More investment will denitely
lead to an increase in utilization costs, which should be
reected in the tari of energy sale. Subsequently, economic limitations would lead to a decrease in the reliability

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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Input Data
Installation Capacity
Total annual Energy (Base & Peak)
Sale of Energy

P1 = Estimation of total Construction Costs


Hard Costs
Soft Costs

i= ix

i (1 + i)
(1+ i)n 1

Acc=P1

C=

t =1

i (1+ i)
(1+ i)n 1
n

Acc: Annual uniform costs of P1


n: life cycle of project

A1=C

AO&M= 0.02 A1

j=1
j: Number of life cycle year of project

ix = 6%, 8%,

Ct (1 + i)

C: Construction cost including interest rate


Ct: Distribution of construction cost
x: Number of construction years
A1: Annual uniform costs
AO&M: O&M costs

Tc= Acc + AO&M


Tc: total annual cost

10%, 12%,14%,
16%, 18%, &
20%
Calculation of
senility analysis for
interest rates

TEP = purchase
TEP: total energy purchase

total annual energy

PWF=

Tc = Acc + AO&M + Rc
Rc: Replacement & renovation cost

(1 + i) j

PWC= Tc PWF
PWB= TEP PWF
PWS= PWC - PWB

j=j+1

PWF: Present worth factor


PWC: Present worth costs
PWB: Present worth benefits
PWS: Present worth (costs benefits)

if j n / 2 = 25
Y

If j n = 50
N

Output
Economical indices, B/C, NPV, $/kWh, DCR, ROE
END
Fig. 2. Economical calculation algorithm.

of the system. Therefore, there could be a compromise


between reliability and economic restrictions that could
lead to dicult managerial decisions in both the design
and operational stages [7,9]. In general, a study of the reliability of the three sections of generation, transmission and
distribution of power systems should be done. In this
paper, only generation reliability is being considered to
meet the load demands. The transmission and distribution
reliability have been assumed to be perfect (reliabil-

ity = 100%). The LOLE calculation algorithm, using the


Monte Carlo method, is in Fig. 3 [8].
3. Case study
The case study of a medium size of HPP Bookan dam
is presented. This HPP is located in the West Azarbaijan
Province of Iran. This HPP is the reservoir type and the
goal is to determine the suitable installation capacity.

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Table A.1
Shows summary of interest formulas for economic evaluations
Name of formula

To nd

Given

Equation

Use
n

Single compound amount


Signal present worth

F
P

P
F

F = p(1 + i)
1
P F 1i
n

Uniform series compound amount


Uniform sinking fund

F
A

A
F

F A 1ii 1
A F 1ii n 1

Uniform capital recovery

i1i
A P 1i
n
1

n
1
A 1i
i1in

Uniform series present worth

Find a future sum equivalent to a present sum


Find a present sum equivalent to a future sum
Find a future sum equivalent to a uniform series of end-of-period sums
Find a uniform series end-of-period sum equivalent to a future sum
Find a uniform series end-of-period sum equivalent to a present sum
Find a present sum equivalent to a uniform series of end-of-period sums

Variable denitions: P is a present sum of memory F is a future sum of memory at the end of N periods i is an interest or discount rate per period n is the
number of interest or discounting periods A is a end-of-period payment (or receipt) in a uniform series of payments (or receipts) over N periods at i interest
or discount rate.

i , i , PGi

Input

i = 1,..., G

PLmin , PLmax , iteration


Drawing of load duration curve

Ai =

i
i + i

i = 1,..., G

n=1 , i = 1, pt = 0 , LOLE= 0

Random selection of one day in year and the related load of it (PL)

Producing a random value between 1 & zero (Ri)

Ai Ri ?
Y
Pt = Pt + PGi
N

i= G ?

i=i+1
Y
Y

Pt PL ?
N
LOLE = LOLE +1
N

i=1
n=n+1
Pt = 0

LOLE =

n=Iterations ?

LOLE ' 365


Iterations

LOLE days

years

Output

Fig. 3. The LOLE calculation algorithm, using the Monte Carlo method.

3.1. Energy calculation of the Bookan HPP


The simulation has been done for a period of 33 years
according to the data extracted from 1964 to 1997. In this

case, the monthly net output (output plus overow) in reservoir and net height in the reservoir for dierent months
which have been given in the followings (the dierence
between the level of water in reservoir and the level of axis

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The maximum level of water in the reservoir is about


1421 m, and the installation level of turbines is
about 1380 m. Therefore the max height of the HPP is
about 41 m. According to the recommendations given by
the USBR standards, the constraints of vertical Francis
turbine are as below
The minimum admitted ow of turbine is about 40% of
the designed rated ow;
The maximum admitted ow of turbine is about 110%
of the designed rated ow;
The minimum operational height of turbine is about
65% of the designed operational height;
The maximum operational height of turbine is about
125% of the designed operational height;

Table 2
Obtained annual energy for dierent alternatives of Bookan HPP
Alternative
number

The rated power


and number of units
(N  MW)

The rated
power
(MW)

The mean
annual
energy
(GW h)

Plant
factor
(PF) (%)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

2  2.5
2  3.75
25
2  6.25
2  7.5
2  8.75
2  10
2  11.25
2  12.5
2  13.75
2  15
3  10
2  16.25
2  17.5
2  18.75
3  12.5
2  20
4  10
2  22.5
3  15
2  25
4  12.5
3  17.5
3  20
4  15

5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
27.5
30
30
32.5
35
37.5
37.5
40
40
45
45
50
50
52.5
60
60

25.33
36.80
47.23
57.67
67.26
76.03
83.41
89.20
93.19
96.52
99.40
99.73
101.71
103.65
105.31
107.99
107.64
110.85
112.52
115.40
116.14
119.80
120.28
124.55
127.43

0.58
0.56
0.54
0.53
0.51
0.50
0.48
0.45
0.43
0.40
0.38
0.38
0.36
0.34
0.32
0.33
0.31
0.32
0.29
0.29
0.27
0.27
0.26
0.24
0.24

Value of DCR index


3
2.5
2

DCR

of the turbine has been extracted in these periods) have


been extracted for this duration. According to the special
specication of the plant and the feasibility study, dierent
alternatives have been considered, based on the expertise
judgment. In these alternatives, the calculated energy is
based on the dierent number of the vertical Francis turbines. Ultimately, the annual energy is being drawn after
getting mean value of them [10].
P
ea1 em1    em12 n12
n1 emn [kW h] the rst annual
energy in year 1964
ea2
[kW h] the second
annual energy in year
1965
eyearnumber
ea33
[kW h] the last annual
energy in year 1997
P
Eave y33
e
=33
[kW h] average annual
ay
y1
energy in 33 years

1.5
1

According to the above-mentioned points, the following


results have been extracted:

0.5
0
1

The minimum height is about 21.5 m;


The nominal height of is about 32.5 m;
The maximum permanent overload of the generators is
about 10%;
The accessibility of the HPP has been considered to be
98%;
The results associated with dierent alternatives are
given in Table 2.

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49

Year
Fig. 4. DCR index value for 50 life cycle of Bookan HPP, interest rate:
8%.

Value of ROE index


1
0.5

The calculated civil, equipment and total investment


costs of the Bookan HPP have been extracted from the feasibility study. These costs for a mean duration of HPP is
about US$1000/kW (US$600/kW for civil works and
US$400/kW for the equipments).
The economic analysis has been carried out considering costs and obtained incomes, according to the given

ROE

3.2. Economical calculation of the bookan HPP

0
1

10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49

-0.5
-1
-1.5

Year
Fig. 5. ROE index value for 50 life cycle of Bookan HPP, interest rate:
8%.

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S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Table 3
Economic indices of dierent alternatives with private section contribution for Bookan HPP (the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for
annual cost)
Alternative
number

The rated power and number of


units (N  MW)

The rated
power (MW)

Interest rate (8%)


Final costs
(USCent/kW h)

B/C

NPV
(US$million)

Interest rate (10%)


Final costs
(USCent/kW h)

B/C

NPV
(US$million)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

2  2.5
2  3.75
25
2  6.25
2  7.5
2  8.75
2  10
2  11.25
2  12.5
2  13.75
2  15
3  10
2  16.25
2  17.5
2  18.75
3  12.5
2  20
4  10
2  22.5
3  15
2  25
4  12.5
3  17.5
3  20
4  15

5
7.5
10
12.5
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
27.5
30
30
32.5
35
37.5
37.5
40
40
45
45
50
50
52.5
60
60

1.70
1.76
1.82
1.87
1.93
1.99
2.07
2.18
2.31
2.45
2.60
2.60
2.75
2.92
3.05
3.05
3.17
3.17
3.40
3.40
3.65
3.65
3.76
4.11
4.11

2.28
2.21
2.12
2.07
2.02
1.95
1.87
1.78
1.68
1.58
1.49
1.49
1.41
1.33
1.27
1.27
1.23
1.23
1.14
1.14
1.06
1.06
1.03
0.94
0.94

7.41
10.49
13.02
15.57
17.67
19.34
20.20
20.41
19.59
18.43
17.08
17.08
15.34
13.45
11.78
11.78
10.44
10.44
7.25
7.25
3.54
3.54
1.83
3.88
3.88

2.11
2.17
2.25
2.31
2.37
2.45
2.55
2.69
2.86
3.04
3.21
3.21
3.40
3.60
3.76
3.76
3.90
3.90
4.20
4.20
4.51
4.51
4.64
5.07
5.07

1.82
1.76
1.70
1.66
1.61
1.56
1.50
1.43
1.34
1.26
1.19
1.19
1.12
1.06
1.02
1.02
0.98
0.98
0.91
0.91
0.85
0.85
0.82
0.75
0.75

4.63
6.46
7.86
9.28
10.34
11.08
11.19
10.78
9.58
8.11
6.50
6.50
4.58
2.54
0.68
0.68
0.92
0.92
4.53
4.53
8.55
8.55
10.44
16.58
16.58

The bold values shows the best choice alternative.

PG = 10 and 15 MW

rated capacity of
generating units
HPPs life time
failures rate
repairs rate

N = 50 (years)
k = 1/25 (f/years)
l = 2 (r/years)

16

14

12

LOLE (days / year)

algorithm. The economic basis is considered so that the


investor may receive a loan from a nancial source and
pay it back with a specic interest rate through annual
installments during the utilization stage. The economic
analysis has been calculated for fully governmental, fully
private and governmental-private nancings, then the
economic indices including B/C, NPV, DCR, ROE (see
Figs. 4 and 5) and US$/kW h of energy have been calculated. The interest rate has been settled as 8% and 10%
in order to attract foreign investment in developing
countries. This rate is considered a normal rate by global
nancial institutes for economic feasibility studies of
water resource development, and the results have been
presented in Table 3. In all the cases the eect of interest
rate changes is studied by sensitivity analysis. As it is
shown in the table, the economic indices of dierent
alternatives with private section contribution have been
brought into calculation or Bookan HPP with the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for annual
cost.

10

3.3. Reliability calculation of the bookan HPP


2

To study the eects of an increase in the number of generation units and subsequently, an increase in the cost on
the LOLE index, various combinations of generation units
are being used for the Bookan HPP, each with the following specications:

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Number of trials
Fig. 6. The graph of calculated LOLE with the Monte Carlo method for
option 4 (min and max load between 10 and 30 MW).

401

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

US$17.08 million, a USCent/kW h equal to 2.60 and the


suitable loss of load expectation (LOLE) index of 10
days/year. By increasing the installed capacity, the LOLE
decreases so that even with a 3  10 MW installation
capacity (option 4) the failure will reach minimum and will
even become a zero value. It should be noted that with such
a situation, more expense for generating a kW h electrical
energy is required, obviously not desirable. Furthermore,
the PF and the economic indices are also not suitable. With
an installation capacity of 2  15 MW, the number of failures, PF and other economic indices are very relatively proportional and the costs of a kW h energy is also at an
acceptable limit.
Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of interest rate from
6 % to 20 % have been calculated and the results are shown
in Table 5. As it is shown in the table, Economic analysis
results on alternative no. 11 with dierent interest rates
with the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is
5% for annual cost and the index of reliability for the Bookan HPP.

Table 4
Index of reliability for the Bookan HPP
LOLE index (day/year)
Option
1

Option
2

Option
3

Option
4

101
132
180
230

10
9.5
100
130

7.2
10
10
11

6.9
6.5
12.6
15

Minimum load
(MW)

Maximum load
(MW)

5
10
10
15

25
25
30
30

The minimum and maximum load values are considered based on the loads in dierent years. The specications of the loads are as follows (a sensitivity analysis
has also been performed on the load values for more
assurance):

PLmax 35 MW average maximum load
PLmin 5 MW

average minimum load

There are 2000 iterations for calculating the LOLE in


the Monte Carlo algorithm. Installing dierent numbers
of generation units created the following possible options;
8
Option1 2  20 MW
>
>
>
< Option2 2  12:5 MW
>
Option3 2  15 MW
>
>
:
Option4 3  10 MW

4. Conclusion
1. One of the most important issues in designing an HPP is
to determine the suitable installation capacity. In this
paper, the methods of energy and the economic and reliability calculation have been presented. This algorithm
has been studied for a sample HPP.
2. The economic indices have been calculated based on the
developed algorithm and conducting a number of sensitivity analysis.
3. The reliability indices have been calculated by employing the Monte Carlo method based on an algorithm.
4. The calculated installation capacity has been obtained
by establishing a compromise between the technical,
economic and the reliability indices.
5. The aforementioned method has been applied to a sample HPP named Bookan by comparing the plant factor (PF), the B/C, NPV, USCent/kW h, and the
reliability index LOLE, so the optimal installation
capacity of 30 MW has been obtained.

LOLE calculation with the Monte Carlo method for


option 4 has shown in Fig. 6.
The results of these calculations are listed in Table 4. As
it is shown in the table, the index of reliability for the Bookan HPP has been calculated.
3.4. Results analysis
With respect to the results presented in Tables 24 and
studying the technical, economic and reliability indices,
the alternative no. 11 is clearly the best option, with a
30 MW installation capacity, an annual energy of
99.40 GW h, a plant factor (PF) of 38%, a B/C that equals
1.49 (for ination rate equal 8%), a NPV equal to

Table 5
Economic analysis results on alternative no. 11 with dierent interest rates (the ination rate is 0.2% for sales of energy and is 5% for annual cost)
Interest rate(%)

Unit

10

12

14

16

18

20

Energy cost
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 1)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.75)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.5)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0.25)
Benet cost ratio (B/C) and (P/t = 0)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 1)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.75)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.5)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0.25)
Net present value (NPV) and (P/t = 0)

USCent/kW h

2.02
1.94
1.78
1.62
1.46
0.73
34.17
28.41
22.64
16.88
9.74

2.60
1.49
1.37
1.25
1.13
0.56
17.08
12.84
8.60
4.35
15.23

3.21
1.19
1.09
1
0.9
0.45
6.50
3.20
0.10
3.40
18.62

3.84
0.98
0.9
0.82
0.74
0.37
0.51
3.18
5.86
8.53
20.88

4.47
0.83
0.77
0.7
0.63
0.31
5.42
7.66
9.90
12.15
22.50

5.11
0.72
0.66
0.6
0.55
0.27
9.04
10.96
12.89
14.81
23.71

5.75
0.64
0.58
0.53
0.48
0.24
11.80
13.49
15.18
16.86
24.65

6.39
0.57
0.52
0.47
0.43
0.21
13.99
15.49
16.99
18.49
25.41

US$million
US$million
US$million
US$million
US$million

Notice: P/t: Ratio of private section investment to total in percent. B/C: Benet cost ratio. NPV: Net present value.

402

S.M.H. Hosseini et al. / Electrical Power and Energy Systems 30 (2008) 393402

Appendix A
See Table A.1.
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