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City Legal Index

2015 quarter 2
Released: 27 August 2015

Contents
Page

City Legal Index ± Structure of indices

3

City Legal Index ± Summary 2015q2

4

Top 50 UK law firms deals ± All deals

5

Large deals Jan-June 2015

7

Top 50 UK law firms deals ± Deals by industry

8

Top 50 UK law firms deals ± Deals by matter type

10

Data - Deals of top 50 UK law firms by industry (Indices 2009=100)

12

Data - Deals of top 50 UK law firms by industry (Actual figures)

13

Data - Deals of top 50 UK law firms by matter type (Indices 2009=100)

14

Data - Deals of top 50 UK law firms by matter type Actual figures)

15

Appendix ± Using deals as an indicator of future changes in GDP

16

Contact details for further information

17

The next release of the City Legal Index is expected to be in February 2016 and will
include data up to the end of December 2015.

www.lawsociety.org.uk

2

City Legal Index ± Structure of indices
The Law Society/Legal Monitor City Legal Index tracks publicised business deals facilitated by
the top 50 UK law firms, providing a gauge of City firm input into the wider economy.
The headline figures for the total number of deals compares the number of deals in a quarter
with the average number of deals over the first year of data collection in 2009, which is set to
100 for the index. The underlying trend in the number of deals is shown by the change in the 1year moving average in the figures (i.e. the change in the average number of deals over the
previous 4 quarters up to and including the quarter under review).
Indices are also produced for the average value of deals and the total value of deals along with
1
the 1-year moving averages for these figures.
The total number of deals, average value, and total value are all analysed by the main industry
2
sectors generating the deals and by the main matter type of deals.
The 7 broad industry sectors tracked are:
x
x
x
x
x
x
x

Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other (covers a range of sectors including Healthcare, Life Sciences & Chemicals;
Government & Public Policy; Transport and Logistics; and Business Services)

The 5 broad transaction/matter type categories tracked are:
x
x
x
x
x

Corporate/Commercial
Banking & Finance
Mergers & Acquisitions
Property/Property Finance
Other (covers a range of matter types including Antitrust/Competition, EU & Trade;
Planning & Development; and Intellectual Property)

The data in the City Legal Index is taken from Legal Monitor's Market Tracker product, a
comprehensive database of all publicly disclosed deals and representation activity. The product
includes data on more than 80 leading global law firms by fee income, covering 17 key practice
areas and 25 industries. Data is derived from a comprehensive base of primary and secondary
sources, including law firm websites, trade & legal press and multiple news portals.

1

Value data is not available for every deal so the total value and average value of deals figures
involve an element of estimation. In addition, these figures can be affected on a quarter-byquarter basis by one-off high value deals ± the 1-year moving averages partially smoothes out
the effects of these outliers.
2

The detailed Legal Monitor data breaks down deals by 25 industries and 30 matter types
which have been aggregated into 7 broad industrial sectors and 5 broad matter type categories.

www.lawsociety.org.uk

3

City Legal Index ± Summary 2015q2
Total number
of deals
2015q1
2015q2

Average value of deals
(£m/deal)
2015q1
2015q2

Total value of deals
(£bn)
2015q1
2015q2

Index 2009=100

138.0

152.7

70.5

75.6

97.9

116.1

Q/Q % change

-13.7

10.7

2.9

7.2

-11.1

18.7

Y/Y % change

-8.9

-3.5

17.0

14.1

6.5

10.1

Actual figures

664

735

£650m

£697m

£432bn

£512bn

x

The total number of deals continued to decrease in the first half (Jan-June) of 2015.
The number of deals in 2015h1 was 6.2% lower than in the comparable period the year
before (2014h1).The rate of decrease in 2015q1 was also greater than in 2014h2.
However, there is some indication that the number of deals may have increased
towards the end of the first half of 2015.

x

This could indicate that UK GDP growth could slow down in 2015q3 but begin to pick up
again in 2015q4.

x

The number of deals index fell to 138.0 in 2015q1 from 159.8 in 2014q4. However,
the index increased to 152.7 in 2015q2.

x

The average value of deals (£m per deal) increased in the first half of 2015. The
average value of deals in 2015h1 was 15.6% higher than in the comparable period the
year before. As a result, the total value of deals (= total number of deals x average
value of deals) in 2015h1 was 8.4% higher than in the comparable period the year
before. There is some indication of an underlying increase in average values. This
increase does however seem to be largely due to the large Royal Dutch Shell deal in
April and large deals in the telecoms sector, and also because of the appreciation of the
pound against the US dollar increasing the value of deals that are denominated in
dollars.

x

The average value index increased to 70.5 in 2015q1 and to 75.6 in 2015q4,
compared to 68.5 in 2014q4.

x

The total value of deals index increased to 97.9 in 2015q1 and to 116.1 in 2015q2,
compared to 97.6 in 2014q4.

x

The largest decreases in number of deals in the first half of 2015 were in the
Technology, Media & Telecoms sector, and the Energy & Utilities sector. However the
decrease in the number of deals in the first half of 2015 seems to be wider and has
affected a broad range industries such as healthcare, chemicals, transport, transport,
government and retail. Deals did increase in the Finance & Banking, Real Estate &
Construction, and Manufacturing sectors.
Note ± This update is based on figures up to the end of June 2015. The previous
report was based on figures up to the end December 2014.

www.lawsociety.org.uk

4

Top 50 UK law firms deals ± All deals
x

The total number of deals of the top 50 UK City law firms continued to slow down in
the first half of 2015, although they increased towards the end of the period.

x

This could indicate some slowing down of UK economic growth in 2015q3, though
possibly picking up in q4.

x

The average value of deals increased significantly in the first half. There is some
indication of an underlying increase in average values. However the majority of the
increase was due to one-off large deals, and also the depreciation of the pound
against the US dollar.

The number of deals in 2015h1 was 6.2% lower than in the comparable period the year before
(2014h1).The rate of decrease in 2015h1 was also greater than in 2014h2. However, there is
some indication that the number of deals may have increased towards the end of the first half.
There is evidence that the number of legal deals is an indicator of the direction of future growth
in the economy as a whole in 6-9 months time. (See Appendix). Therefore the decrease in the
number of deals over most of the first half of 2015, and increase towards the end of the period,
may indicate that UK GDP growth could slow down in q3 but begin to pick up again in q4.
The average value of deals (£m per deal) increased significantly in the first half of 2015..The
average value of deals in 2015h1 was 15.6% higher than in the comparable period the year
before. As a result, the total value of deals (= total number of deals x average value of deals) in
2015h1 was 8.4% higher than in the comparable period the year before.
There is some indication of an underlying increase in the average value of deals. However, the
increase in average value in the first half was affected by the large Royal Dutch Shell deal in
April, and by three large deals in the telecoms sector in February and March. These large deals
accounted for over half of the increase in average value in the first half. Also, some of the
increase was due to changes in the pound exchange rate in the first half. In particular, the
depreciation of the pound against the US dollar increased the pound value of deals
denominated in dollars. The average value of deals would have increased by 12.6% in h1,
instead of 15.6%, if the pound had not depreciated against the dollar over this period.

www.lawsociety.org.uk

5

Total number of deals
(Index)

180.0
160.0

Index 2009=100

140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0

Quarterly index
1-year moving average

60.0
40.0
20.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

Average value of deals
(Index)

180.0
160.0

Index 2009=100

140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0

Quarterly index
1-year moving average

60.0
40.0
20.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

Total value of deals
(Index)

250.0

Index 2009=100

200.0

150.0

Quarterly index

100.0

1-year moving average
50.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

www.lawsociety.org.uk

6

Large deals January-June 2015
Large deals over the period January 2015 to June 2015

Date

Value
(£bn)

Client(s)

Industry

Matter type

Robert G. Miller (CEO,
Albertsons)

Retail/Consumer

M&A: Acquiror's
Counsel

£13bn

Deutsche Telekom

Technology, Media &
Telecoms

M&A: Seller's Counsel

Feb 2015

£13bn

Orange

Technology, Media &
Telecoms

M&A: Seller's Counsel

Mar 2015

£11bn

GlaxoSmithKline

Healthcare, Life
Sciences & Chemicals

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Equity

Mar 2015

£10bn

Telefonica

Technology, Media &
Telecoms

M&A: Seller's Counsel

Mar 2015

£7bn

Islamic Development
Bank

Finance & Banking

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

Mar 2015

£5bn

Sumitomo Chemical

Healthcare, Life
Sciences & Chemicals

Banking & Finance Capital Markets:
Structured/Project

Apr 2015

£47bn

Royal Dutch Shell

Energy & Utilities

M&A: Acquiror's
Counsel

Apr 2015

£18bn

GE Capital

Finance & Banking

Asset Sale: Seller's
Counsel

Apr 2015

£7bn

GTECH

Gaming

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

Apr 2015

£7bn

Bank of
China,BTMU,Citi,Deuts
che,HSBC,JP

Finance & Banking

Banking & Finance Bank Lending/Credit
Facilities

Apr 2015

£5bn

GTECH

Gaming

M&A

May 2015

£19bn

Abbey National
Treasury
Services,Santander UK

Finance & Banking

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

May 2015

£6bn

Royal Dutch Shell

Energy & Utilities

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

May 2015

£5bn

Siemens

Diversified
Conglomorate

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

May 2015

£5bn

Deutsche Bank
Securities,Barclays
Capital,Citigroup Global

Finance & Banking

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

May 2015

£5bn

Aviva

Insurance

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

Jun 2015

£10bn

Consortium of Lenders
(Unspecified Client)

Finance & Banking

Banking & Finance Bank Lending/Credit
Facilities

Jun 2015

£6bn

DBS Bank

Finance & Banking

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

Jun 2015

£5bn

Aviva

Insurance

Banking & Finance Capital Markets: Debt

Jan 2015

£6bn

Feb 2015

www.lawsociety.org.uk

7

Top 50 UK law firms deals ± Deals by industry

x

The largest decreases in number of deals in the first half of 2015 were in the
Technology, Media & Telecoms sector, and the Energy & Utilities sector. However
the decrease in the number of deals in the first half of 2015 does seem to be wider
and has affected a broad range industries such as healthcare, chemicals, transport,
transport, government and retail.

x

Deals increased in the Finance & Banking, Real Estate & Construction, and
Manufacturing sectors.

The number of deals in the Energy & Utilities sector in 2015h1 was 19.4% lower than in the
comparable period the year before, reflecting the decrease in oil prices. The number of deals in
the Technology, Media & Telecoms sector in 2015h1 was also 20.5% lower than in 2014h1.
(Although a large part of this is due to the particularly high number of deals in the sector
towards the end of 2014h1. Taking out the high number of deals in the sector towards the end
of 2014h1, the number of deals in 2015h1 would have been 4-5% down on 2014h1). The
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sector includes a wide range of industries including healthcare, chemicals, transport,
government and retail, and therefore indicates a wider downturn in deals in the first half of the
year.
The number of deals in the Finance & Banking sector and the Real Estate and Construction
sector in 2015h1 were significantly higher than in 2014h1. Finance & Banking sector deals were
7.6% higher, therefore to some extent reversing the downward trend seen in this sector over the
previous year. Real Estate and Construction sector deals were 14.5% higher, reflecting the
slightly more buoyant UK commercial property market. Deals in the Manufacturing sector were
also 3.8% higher, indicating that the sharp falls seen in the second half of 2014 may have come
to an end.

www.lawsociety.org.uk

8

Total number of deals - by industry
(1-year moving averages)

300

250

200
Number

Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management

150

Technology, Media & Telecoms

Energy & Utilities
100

Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing

50

Other

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

Average value of deals - by industry
(1-year moving averages)

2000
1800
1600

£m/deal

1400
Finance & Banking

1200

Fund/Investment Management

1000

Technology, Media & Telecoms

800

Energy & Utilities

600

Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing

400

Other
200
0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

Total value of deals - by industry
(1-year moving averages)

250000

200000

Finance & Banking

150000
£m

Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms

100000

Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing

50000

Other
0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

www.lawsociety.org.uk

9

Top 50 UK law firms deals ± Deals by matter type

x

The number of deals in the broad Corporate & Commercial matter type category in
2015h1 were 28.7% lower than 2014h2.

x

Deals in the Property/Property Finance matter type category in 2015h1 were 4.8%
higher than in 2014h1.

x

Separate figures from the Legal Monitor database show that litigation/arbitration
increased significantly in 2014, but fell back in the first the first half of this year.

There is less information on deals relating to litigation/arbitration matters, and therefore these
are not included in the figures presented elsewhere. However, to the extent that we do have
information on litigation/arbitration deals, the figures show that there was a significant increase
in these deals in 2014, but since the beginning of this year there has been a large fallback. The
number of litigation/arbitration deals increased from 106 in 2014q1 to 139 in 2014q4, but then
fell back to 98 in 2015q2.
Number of litigation/arbitration deals
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1

2

3

2012

4

1

2

3

2013

4

1

2

3

2014

4

1

2

3

4

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

www.lawsociety.org.uk

10

Total number of deals - by matter type
(1-year moving averages)

300

250

Number

200
Corporate & Commercial

150

Banking & Finance

M&A
100

Property/Property Finance
Other

50

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

Average value of deals - by matter type
(1-year moving averages)

1600
1400
1200

£m/deal

1000
Corporate & Commercial

800

Banking & Finance

M&A

600

Property/Property Finance
400

Other

200
0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

Total value of deals - by matter type
(1-year moving averages)

300000

250000

£m

200000
Corporate & Commercial

150000

Banking & Finance

M&A
100000

Property/Property Finance
Other

50000

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source:
Law Society/Legal Monitor
(29 July 2015)

www.lawsociety.org.uk

11

Data - Deals of top 50 UK law firms by industry (Indices 2009=100)
Total number of deals
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
108.7
157.7
123.9
142.2
118.3
147.6
123.0
127.4

2012
121.6
143.0
147.9
163.9
129.0
113.4
130.4
133.6

2013
145.7
153.4
127.6
145.6
235.1
150.0
141.2
150.1

2014
140.8
152.5
144.8
177.6
248.1
126.8
143.8
153.5

2014q3
139.9
165.2
135.0
182.3
201.5
92.7
126.5
144.4

2014q4
153.2
150.8
157.1
190.5
265.6
156.1
141.4
159.8

2015q1
117.6
161.3
95.7
136.1
302.3
107.3
122.8
138.0

2015q2
172.8
133.8
132.5
136.1
299.2
161.0
125.9
152.7

Average value of deals (£m/deal)
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
87.4
120.3
113.1
93.4
168.5
59.3
87.6
91.6

2012
94.1
84.8
125.8
122.0
175.9
60.2
90.7
97.3

2013
58.2
76.7
246.0
81.2
95.5
56.8
66.3
75.1

2014
52.5
71.4
95.1
69.3
79.2
60.8
77.5
65.6

2014q3
47.3
72.0
98.7
68.2
54.9
53.5
86.1
65.8

2014q4
63.1
66.3
113.3
76.4
97.6
60.0
61.5
68.5

2015q1
47.5
86.2
189.0
76.3
96.3
71.3
79.4
70.5

2015q2
62.0
85.8
80.1
154.9
88.7
35.9
72.3
75.6

Total value of deals (£m)
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
94.9
189.7
140.1
132.8
199.3
87.6
107.7
116.7

2012
114.4
121.2
186.0
200.0
226.9
68.3
118.3
129.9

2013
84.8
117.7
313.9
118.3
224.5
85.2
93.6
112.8

2014
73.9
108.8
137.7
123.0
196.5
77.1
111.5
100.8

2014q3
66.9
118.5
141.2
127.4
112.3
57.8
108.5
95.6

2014q4
97.8
99.6
188.6
149.2
263.3
109.0
86.5
110.1

2015q1
56.4
138.5
191.8
106.3
295.7
89.2
97.0
97.9

2015q2
108.3
114.3
112.6
215.9
269.5
67.3
90.6
116.1

Total value of deals (£m 2009 prices)
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
92.1
183.8
136.0
129.2
194.4
85.0
104.4
113.2

2012
108.9
115.3
177.3
189.7
215.4
65.1
112.6
123.6

2013
78.8
109.7
292.5
109.8
208.9
79.2
87.1
104.9

2014
66.1
97.6
123.4
110.1
175.9
69.2
100.0
90.3

2014q3
60.0
106.5
126.9
114.3
100.9
52.0
97.4
85.8

2014q4
86.6
88.4
167.4
132.2
233.5
96.8
76.7
97.6

2015q1
49.7
122.2
169.3
93.7
260.8
78.8
85.6
86.3

2015q2
94.7
100.1
98.7
188.9
236.0
59.0
79.3
101.6

www.lawsociety.org.uk

12

Data ± Deals of top 50 UK law firms by industry (Actual figures)
Total number of deals
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
488
481
202
209
155
121
797
2453

2012
546
436
241
241
169
93
845
2571

2013
654
468
208
214
308
123
915
2890

2014
632
465
236
261
325
104
932
2955

2014q3
157
126
55
67
66
19
205
695

2014q4
172
115
64
70
87
32
229
769

2015q1
132
123
39
50
99
22
199
664

2015q2
194
102
54
50
98
33
204
735

Average value of deals (£m/deal)
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
1319
651
816
957
654
449
729
839

2012
1421
459
908
1250
683
455
755
891

2013
879
415
1774
833
371
429
552
688

2014
793
386
686
710
307
460
646
601

2014q3
723
388
754
716
216
471
714
606

2014q4
964
358
866
803
385
528
509
631

2015q1
725
465
1445
801
380
628
658
650

2015q2
947
462
613
1626
350
316
599
697

Total value of deals (£m)
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
643814
313298
164745
200105
101369
54273
580876
2058480

2012
775862
200080
218732
301287
115378
42306
637924
2291570

2013
575168
194366
369028
178175
114164
52813
504921
1988636

2014
500999
179632
161884
185351
99903
47805
601639
1777212

2014q3
113483
48927
41490
47972
14275
8957
146306
421411

2014q4
165816
41123
55426
56192
33477
16895
116619
485547

2015q1
95665
57159
56365
40045
37591
13820
130876
431520

2015q2
183626
47165
33084
81319
34261
10425
122170
512049

Total value of deals (£m 2009 prices)
Finance & Banking
Fund/Investment Management
Technology, Media & Telecoms
Energy & Utilities
Real Estate & Construction
Manufacturing
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
625109
303403
159828
194833
98844
52636
563116
1997769

2012
739684
190379
208358
286077
109562
40291
607415
2181767

2013
535218
181062
343646
165527
106257
49025
469843
1850577

2014
448681
161153
144925
166040
89458
42819
539763
1592839

2014q3
101935
43948
37268
43091
12823
8046
131418
378529

2014q4
147072
36474
49161
49840
29693
14985
103437
430662

2015q1
84397
50426
49726
35328
33163
12192
115461
380694

2015q2
160821
41307
28975
71220
30006
9130
106998
448458

www.lawsociety.org.uk

13

Data - Deals of top 50 UK law firms by matter type (indices 2009=100)
Total number of deals
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
135.3
97.7
184.6
130.4
87.5
127.4

2012
168.2
105.9
152.9
188.0
98.4
133.6

2013
185.5
134.2
136.4
313.0
94.6
150.1

2014
177.9
132.4
145.7
348.9
112.0
153.5

2014q3
173.4
127.2
126.0
321.7
113.0
144.4

2014q4
157.4
145.7
153.9
352.2
143.5
159.8

2015q1
153.4
103.0
148.0
391.3
100.0
138.0

2015q2
118.3
155.0
153.9
365.2
108.7
152.7

Average value of deals (£m/deal)
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
133.8
91.8
71.5
229.2
87.1
91.6

2012
101.0
106.2
93.0
101.6
109.5
97.3

2013
116.5
67.6
62.6
95.5
132.3
75.1

2014
75.3
63.3
67.6
90.6
103.5
65.6

2014q3
61.6
67.8
74.7
87.2
80.2
65.8

2014q4
63.5
67.2
67.8
102.1
120.2
68.5

2015q1
65.0
65.7
85.6
117.6
97.4
70.5

2015q2
88.1
67.8
88.6
72.5
78.3
75.6

Total value of deals (£m)
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
181.1
89.6
132.0
298.9
76.2
116.7

2012
169.9
112.5
142.1
191.1
107.7
129.9

2013
216.1
90.8
85.4
298.8
125.1
112.8

2014
134.0
83.9
98.5
316.1
115.8
100.8

2014q3
109.0
86.8
97.2
281.7
87.1
95.6

2014q4
102.0
98.5
107.8
361.3
165.6
110.1

2015q1
101.7
68.0
130.8
462.1
93.6
97.9

2015q2
106.4
105.7
140.8
265.9
81.7
116.1

Total value of deals (£m 2009 prices)
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
175.3
86.9
128.0
292.6
74.2
113.2

2012
161.1
107.1
135.4
181.5
102.6
123.6

2013
200.8
84.4
79.4
278.7
116.7
104.9

2014
120.1
75.1
88.3
283.6
104.0
90.3

2014q3
97.8
77.8
87.3
253.3
78.4
85.8

2014q4
90.4
87.3
95.6
320.8
147.2
97.6

2015q1
89.7
60.0
115.4
408.1
82.7
86.3

2015q2
93.1
92.5
123.3
233.1
71.7
101.6

www.lawsociety.org.uk

14

Data ± Deals of top 50 UK law firms by matter type (Actual figures)
Total number of deals
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
540
759
873
120
161
2453

2012
671
823
723
173
181
2571

2013
740
1043
645
288
174
2890

2014
710
1029
689
321
206
2955

2014q3
173
247
149
74
52
695

2014q4
157
283
182
81
66
769

2015q1
153
200
175
90
46
664

2015q2
118
301
182
84
50
735

Average value of deals (£m/deal)
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
859
1010
754
589
614
839

2012
649
1169
981
261
772
891

2013
748
744
660
246
934
688

2014
484
697
713
233
730
601

2014q3
403
751
814
225
544
606

2014q4
416
744
739
264
815
631

2015q1
426
727
933
304
660
650

2015q2
578
751
965
187
530
697

Total value of deals (£m)
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
464016
766293
658520
70740
98912
2058480

2012
435285
962088
709182
45230
139785
2291570

2013
553601
775879
426002
70713
162441
1988636

2014
343318
717225
491466
74797
150406
1777212

2014q3
69802
185438
121227
16667
28276
421411

2014q4
65339
210593
134471
21377
53767
485547

2015q1
65166
145431
163210
27340
30373
431520

2015q2
68148
226022
175624
15732
26524
512049

Total value of deals (£m 2009 prices)
Corporate & Commercial
Banking & Finance
M&A
Property/Property Finance
Other
Total market (All deals)

2011
449572
743939
638972
69177
96109
1997769

2012
413255
916975
675696
42893
132948
2181767

2013
514921
722161
396389
65870
151236
1850577

2014
308014
642545
440524
67027
134730
1592839

2014q3
62699
166568
108891
14971
25399
378529

2014q4
57953
186788
119271
18961
47689
430662

2015q1
57490
128302
143986
24120
26796
380694

2015q2
59685
197952
153813
13778
23230
448458

www.lawsociety.org.uk

15

Appendix ± Using deals as an indicator of future changes in GDP
To determine whether the recent level of deals is an indicator of future changes in GDP, or
whether the relationship is the other way round ie recent GDP is an indicator of future changes
in deals, we estimated two equations:
(1) Current GDP as a function of lagged (or past) number of deals
(2) Current number of deals as a function of lagged (or past) GDP
Equation (1) has a better explanatory power, so therefore it is reasonable to propose that deals
are an indicator of future changes in GDP, rather than the other way around.
Deals are not a perfect predictor of future changes in GDP, and can only give an indication of
the direction of future changes. The level of deals can be quite variable on a quarter-to-quarter
basis, and also the relationship between deals and GDP is based on the relatively short run of
data for which deals figures are available. Nonetheless, the recent level of deals gives some
indication of possible future changes in GDP.

Quarterly % change UK GDP
2

1.5

1
Actual GDP growth
0.5

0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
-0.5

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP growth that would have
been predicted by the City
Legal Index 6 months
beforehand

-1

-1.5

Source:
Law Society Research Unit
(July 2015)

www.lawsociety.org.uk

16

Contact details for further information

For further information on City Legal Index please see:
http://www.lawsociety.org.uk/representation/research-trends/research-publications/city-legalindex/
or
http://legal-monitor.com/citylegalindex
Or contact:
Keith Blakemore
Senior Economist
Law Society
Email keith.blakemore@lawsociety.org.uk
or
David Kekwick
Commercial Director
Legal Monitor
Email david.kekwick@legal-monitor.com

www.lawsociety.org.uk

17