May 11, 2015

Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report

RETAIL RESEARCH
Equity Markets
Indian equities registered small gains during the week ended 8 May 2015. Sentiment remained subdued
in the week on selling of Indian stocks by foreign portfolio investors and higher global crude oil prices.
The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex managed to settle above the psychological 27,000 level. The
Sensex fell in three out of five trading sessions.
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 94.08 points or 0.34% to settle at 27,105.39. The 50-unit CNX Nifty rose 10
points or 0.12% to settle at 8,191.50. Broader market depicted weakness. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed
180.08 points or 1.72% to settle at 10,236.21. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 114.97 points or 1.05% to
settle at 10,829.06. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Outlook for the current weeks

Next batch of Q4 March 2015 results, macro-economic data and proceedings in parliament will dictate
near term trend on the bourses. Trend in investment by foreign and domestic institutional investors will
be keenly watched.

Weekly Statistics
Global Index

08-May

01-May

Change (%)

Sensex

27105

28260

-4.09

Nifty

8192

8586

-4.59

DJIA

18191

17763

2.41

Nasdaq

5004

4887

2.39

FTSE

7047

6834

3.12

DAX

11415

11967

-4.61

Hang Seng

27577

25276

9.10

Nikkei

19379

19435

-0.29

Bovespa

57149

53123

7.58

Indonesia Jakarta

5182

5456

-5.02

Singapore Strait

3452

3454

-0.06

MSCI Emerging Mkt

1035

994

4.12

Mutual Fund Categories watch

Among others, Shares of Syndicate Bank will on 11 May 2015, react to the company's Q4 March 2015
results which will be out on 9 May 2015. Adani Power, Bank of Baroda, Havells India and SRF will
announce their quarter earnings on Monday. Ashok Leyland, Central Bank of India, Dr Reddy's
Laboratories, Motherson Sumi Systems, Sobha, Torrent Power, UCO Bank, Union Bank of India and Vijaya
Bank will announce their quarter earnings on Tuesday. Adani Enterprises, Emami and Lupin are scheduled
to announce it on Wednesday.
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies will be in focus as they undertake a review of fuel prices
during the middle of the month. CPI & WPI data for April 2015 will be unveiled on Tuesday & Thursday
respectively. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi will pay a three nation official visit to China,
Mongolia and Republic of Korea from 14 May to 19 May 2015. The government has announced extension
of Budget session of Lok Sabha by three more days till 13 May 2015.

Global Markets
Solid gains on Friday helped the S&P 500 and Dow end the turbulent week with modest gains. The S&P
500 SPX, closed at 2,116.09 and gained 0.4% over the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at
18,191.11 and finished the week 0.9% higher.
The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 45 nations, rose 1.35 percent, to 439.13, ending the
week with a 0.3 percent gain. Shares in Australia, Greater China and Japan rose in Asia on hopes for
easier monetary policies after a slew of central bank reviews and trade data from China. Both Chinese
and Australian markets were up after three consecutive negative sessions.

Category Name

1 Week
Absolute

1 Month
Absolute

3 Month
Absolute

6 Month
Absolute

1 Year
CAGR

3 Year
CAGR

Arbitrage Funds

0.30

0.30

1.78

4.15

8.51

8.75

Balanced - Equity

-0.66

-4.70

-2.00

3.19

31.50

20.24

Equity - Banking

-2.79

-4.64

-6.27

2.45

36.17

22.72

Equity - Div Yield

-0.76

-5.58

-2.80

2.25

39.53

20.38

Equity - Infra

-1.69

-7.47

-2.56

2.11

41.07

18.42

Equity - LARGE

-0.69

-6.54

-3.69

1.92

34.06

20.74

Equity - MID

-1.31

-7.10

-1.40

6.61

54.31

30.87

Equity - MNC

-0.37

-5.20

5.01

23.33

78.68

33.07

Equity - MULTI

-1.00

-6.55

-2.80

2.99

39.89

23.52

Equity - SMALL

-1.70

-8.06

-0.71

9.26

75.48

31.60

Equity - FMCG

0.18

-5.98

-4.43

5.18

24.90

20.81

Equity - Infotech

1.37

-7.94

-8.19

-2.18

27.48

24.34

Equity - Pharma

-0.60

-12.31

6.45

9.26

50.84

33.93

ELSS

-0.96

-6.61

-3.08

2.94

38.11

23.55

Gold ETFs

-0.56

0.75

-2.93

6.33

-4.55

-3.16

Gilt Funds

-0.59

-0.58

-0.27

5.31

13.39

9.35

Income Funds

-0.39

-0.26

0.47

4.33

10.88

8.99

Liquid Funds

0.14

0.63

1.96

4.01

8.30

8.56

MIP

-0.47

-1.34

0.05

3.87

14.49

10.48

Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on May 08, 2015.

RETAIL RESEARCH

G sec Markets

10 Year G sec Benchmark move:

Indian bond yields ended up during the shortened week ended May 08, 2015.
The G sec market remained closed on Monday due to bank holiday. The G sec market opened the week
on Tuesday on a weak note tracking weakness in the domestic currency. A rise in US benchmark treasury
yields also weighed on gilt prices.
G sec prices ended lower on Wednesday tracking rise in the global crude oil prices and weakness in the
rupee value.
Prices of the Government securities fell sharply on Thursday tracking notable weakness in the domestic
currency. Rise in global crude oil prices and US treasury yields further weighed on the bond prices. The
bond auction for the week also kept bond prices under pressure.
G sec prices ended marginally higher on Friday seeing improvement in the domestic currency. A decline in
global crude oil prices and US treasury yields also supported the bond prices to some extent.
Hence, the yields of the 10-year benchmark 8.40% 2024 bond ended up 12 bps at 7.98% (Rs 102.70) on
Friday against the last week close of 7.74%.

Liquidity:

Outlook for the week

We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 7.70% - 8.00% band for the week.

Liquidity, Call & CBLO

The liquidity in the banking system improved during last week compared to the previous week. The net
infusion from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs. 12,192 crore for last week (Rs. 19,202 crore in
previous week). The inter-bank call rates traded around 6.65% levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were
positioned at 6.71% level.

T Bills
The 91-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 8,000 crore was fully subscribed with implying a yield of 7.94%. The
364-Days T-Bill auction worth Rs 6,000 crore was fully subscribed with implying a yield of 7.91%.

Corporate Debts
The 1 year bond ended at 8.65% compared to the previous week close of 8.65%.
The 10-year AAA bond traded at 8.50% compared to the previous week close 8.33%.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Debt Securities Benchmarks watch

Debt (%)

08-May

30-Apr

Change (bps)

Call Rate

6.65

7.7

-105

CBLO

6.71

7.86

-115

Repo

7.5

7.5

Reverse Repo

6.5

6.5

10 Year G sec

7.98

7.86

12

LIBOR UK

0.57

0.57

LIBOR USA

0.28

0.28

LIBOR Europe

-0.02

-0.01

-1

Currency
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec:

The USD depreciated against the Euro by 0.18% for week ended 08th May 2015.
The dollar depreciated against the yen by 0.30%.
The USD depreciated against the pound by 1.83%.

AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec

Security

08-May

30-Apr

1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
10 Year

33
69
31
36

45
43
39
32

Date of Auction

Value (Rs. Crs)

13-May
13-May

8,000
6,000

Gold & Crude oil

Forthcoming Auctions;

International crude oil prices (WTI) gained by 0.41% for the week ended 08th May, 2015 to close at USD
59.39 per barrel.
International gold prices increased by 1.23% for the week ended 8th May, 2015 to close at USD 1188.9
per troy ounce.

10 Yr G sec Benchmark Yields Movements in last one month.

Security
91 D T Bill
364 D T Bill

Certificates of Deposits:
Maturity

08-May

30-Apr

3 Months
6 Months
1 Year

8.35
8.40
8.45

8.25
8.30
8.40

Maturity

08-May

30-Apr

3 Months
6 Months
1 Year

8.70
8.80
8.90

8.65
8.75
8.90

Commercial Papers:

Commodity Update:

RETAIL RESEARCH

Commodity

08-May

30-Apr

Change (%)

NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

Gold (oz/$)

59.39
1,188.9

59.15
1,174.5

+0.41%
+1.23%

Scheme Analysis

RETAIL RESEARCH

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund - G

Key Points

Unit Growth of investments Vs. Benchmark

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity is one of the consistently performing schemes from Equity Diversified Large
cap category. The scheme has managed to deliver notable returns over periods thanks to its ability to
mitigate risk with blue chip oriented stocks from the universe of BSE 200.
The scheme registered +35%, +26% and +15% of compounded returns for the one, three and five year
periods while the benchmark posted +28%, +19% and +10% of returns respectively. Over the same period,
the category clocked +33%, +21% and +12% of CAGR returns respectively. The large-cap orientation
prevented the scheme to benefit from rallies led by mid-cap stocks, but helped to withstand the
corrections efficiently during the market downturns. The scheme has been maintaining an average of 98%
of assets into blue chip stocks considering last one-year period.
The fund manager follows buy and hold strategy as close to 70% of the portfolio is the core which are
kept over longer term. The scheme tries to follow the same sector weights as the index of BSE 200 and try
to get all the advantage by having a different stock selection within those sectors.
The portfolio has been churned moderately in last six month periods as the scheme added 10 new stocks
and exited from 6. That reflects in the turnover ratio which has been at 33%.
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries Ltd are the stocks topped in its latest portfolio having
weights of 6.16%, 4.72% and 3.83% to its net assets respectively. The expense ratio of 2.21% for the
scheme is lower compared to the category (the category average has been at 2.64%).
Rating agencies like Value research & Crisil assigned 4 star and CPR 2 respectively for the scheme.
These reflect good performance of the scheme on generating high-risk adjusted returns.
The scheme is managed by Mr. Mahesh Patil. The corpus of the scheme as per latest data was at Rs. 8,843
crore.
As far as risk measures are concerned, the scheme has done well in terms of Sharpe and Jensons Alpha. It
registered Sharpe of 0.11% (category 0.08%) and Alpha of 0.03% (category 0.03%).
The scheme seems to be less risky in the category as it generated 0.90% (category 0.95%) of Standard
Deviation over the last one-year.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Fund Performance Vis-a-vis Benchmark (Excess return):

(Rebased to 100)

Mutual Fund ready reckoner:

Equity - Diversified - Large CAP
NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity - Plan A (G)

INF209K01BR9

166.45

8603

56.72

25.59

17.15

25.24

ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, ITC

Tata Mot and SBI

CPR 2

4 Star

Average

HDFC Equity Fund - (G)

INF179K01608

475.46

19181

59.67

21.98

16.63

21.11

SBI, ICICI Bank, Infy, L&T

Aurobindo Pharma

CPR 3

3 Star

High

High

ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund (G)

INF109K01BL4

30.06

8815

50.15

21.89

17.95

17.68

HDFC Bank Ltd, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank

Ltd, ITC Ltd and RIL

CPR 3

5 Star

Low

High

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Return
Grade

Franklin India High Growth Companies (G)

INF090I01981

29.72

1773

89.94

35.37

21.77

15.43

Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki

India, Tech Mahindra & ICICI Bank

CPR 1

5 Star

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

ICICI Pru Dynamic Plan (G)

INF109K01761

193.81

5915

45.37

22.13

16.60

27.19

Power Grid Corp, INFY, HDFC Bank,

Wipro and RIL

CPR 2

4 Star

Below
Average

High

Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund (G)

INF204K01489

77.05

11172

68.31

29.04

22.41

22.86

HDFC Bank, Divi's Lab, SBI, Trent and

Cummins India

CPR 1

3 Star

Below
Average

Average

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Return
Grade

Reliance Small Cap Fund (G)

INF204K01HY3

24.56

1579

103.51

39.82

22.41

LG Balakrishnan & Bros, TVS Motor

Co., Atul, Kalpataru & CCL Pro

CPR 2

5 Star

Average

High

ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund (G)

INF109K01AF8

114.49

8682

84.87

33.97

23.21

26.05

ICICI Bank, RIL, Sadbhav Engineering,

PI Ind & Amara Raja Bat

CPR 2

4 Star

Low

Above
Average

Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap

INF205K01DN2

35.88

389

86.97

36.10

26.23

21.04

DB Corporation, STFC, ING Vysya

Bank, Bharat Forge & Dish TV India

CPR 3

4 Star

Below
Average

High

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Return
Grade

AXIS Long Term Equity Fund (G)

INF846K01131

30.82

4034

76.34

35.00

25.16

24.38

HDFC Bank Ltd, TCS, L&T, HDFC Ltd,

ITC Ltd

CPR 1

5 Star

Low

High

Reliance Tax Saver Fund - (G)

INF204K01GK4

49.64

4156

102.77

33.73

23.31

18.51

TVS Motor Co, SBI, Tata Steel, Wipro

& BHEL

CPR 1

5 Star

High

High

Scheme Name

Return
Grade
Above
Average

Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP

Scheme Name

High

Equity - Diversified - Mid n Small CAP

Scheme Name

Equity - Tax Planning

Scheme Name

RETAIL RESEARCH

Hybrid - Equity Oriented (Atleast 60% in equity)

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

HDFC Balanced Fund (G)

INF179K01392

107.50

3284

51.84

22.77

19.03

17.85

SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Aurobindo

Pharma & L&T

CPR 1

4 Star

ICICI Pru Balanced Fund - (G)

INF109K01480

93.20

1633

50.32

24.29

18.94

15.68

HDFC Bank, Motherson Sumi, City

Union Bank, Maruti Suzuki Ind & ICICI

CPR 1

5 Star

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

5 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Reliance Monthly Income Plan (G)

INF204K01FD1

33.37

2521

26.84

13.12

10.97

11.40

Eq: Sundaram-Clayton, Federal Mogul

Goetze, HDFC Bank. CP: PFC

CPR 2

4 Star

HDFC Monthly Income Plan - LTP (G)

INF179K01AE4

34.66

3818

27.25

12.90

10.95

11.77

Eq: SBI, Infy, ICICI Bank, L&T. Debt:

TATA Power, Hindalco Inds

CPR 2

Scheme Name

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

Return
Grade

Below
Average

Above
Average

Risk
Grade
Above
Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

3 Star

Average

Average

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

Below
Average

Above
Average

Risk
Grade
Below
Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

High

Hybrid - Monthly Income Plan - Long Term (About 15% to 20% in equity)
Scheme Name

Liquid Funds
NAV (Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

27.35

14666

9.05

9.20

9.24

7.25

CP: National Bank Agr. Rur. Devp, CD:

National Bank Agr. Rur, Union Bank.

CPR 3

3 Star

3064.08

1134

8.96

9.20

9.19

7.34

CP: M&M Financial Services, Kotak

Mahindra Prime, PFC, CD: SIDBI 2014

CPR 3

4 Star

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan - Regular (G)

INF109K01746

260.58

11913

9.50

9.55

9.52

7.49

CD: NABARD, Canara Bk, T Bill, CP:

HDFC, Debt: TCFSL

CPR 1

4 Star

SBI Mag Income FRP - Savings Plus Bond (G)

INF200K01636

21.50

842

8.90

9.03

9.26

7.47

CD: HDFC, ICICI, IDBI. Debt: LIC Hou,

HDFC. CP: Sesa ste

CPR 3

3 Star

Low

Average

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

24.00

985

10.83

9.95

10.28

7.27

FD: J&K Bank, D: 11.6% DHFL. 2015,

CD: Central Bank of India 2013,

CPR 3

3 Star

Average

Return
Grade
Above
Average

2847.73

10332

12.25

10.57

10.36

8.33

PTC: 11.85% Adani Enterprises. Debt:

Dewan Housing Fin

CPR 1

4 Star

Average

Scheme Name
HDFC Liquid Fund (G)
INF179K01KG8
SBI Magnum InstaCash - Cash Plan
INF200K01LJ4

Ultra Short Term Funds

Scheme Name

Short Term Income Funds

Scheme Name
Sundaram Select Debt - STAP (G)
INF903J01FG3
Franklin India Short Term Income (G)
INF090I01304

RETAIL RESEARCH

Above
Average

Income Funds
NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan (G)

INF209K01603

16.88

3683

12.27

11.32

11.20

9.24

Debenture: DLF, Tata Mot, IL&FS

Transport, RHC Holdings

CPR 3

4 Star

Low

ICICI Pru Long Term Plan - Retail (G)

INF109K01712

31.84

349

20.97

14.98

12.89

9.38

Bonds: EXIM Bk, 8.28% GOI 9-21, 8.4%

GOI 7-28 & Cash

5 Star

Low

High

NAV
(Rs)

Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)

1 Year
Return

2 Year
Return

3 Year
Return

Return Since
Inception

Top Holdings

Crisil
Rank

Value Research
Rating

Risk
Grade

Return
Grade

Tata Gilt Mid Term Fund (G)

INF277K01LH6

15.30

129

17.96

11.83

11.24

9.52

SDL: 8.94% Maharashtra, GOI: 8.28%

GOI 9-21

CPR 3

4 Star

Low

High

Sundaram Gilt Fund - (G)

INF903J01FA6

23.61

40

13.07

15.67

14.90

6.41

8.83% GOI 2023, 8.28% GOI 2027,

8.6% GOI 2028 & 8.15% GOI 2026

5 Star

Low

High

Scheme Name

Return
Grade
Above
Average

Gilt Funds
Scheme Name

Notes:

NAV value as on May 08, 2015. Portfolio data as on Apr 2015.

Returns are trailing and annualized (CAGR).
The notations '5 Star & CPR 1' (used by VR & Crisil respectively) are considered as top in respective rating and ranking scales.
The performance of the funds are rated and classified by Value Research in the following ways. Top 10% funds in each category were classified ***** funds, the next 22.5% got a **** star,
while the middle 35% got a ***, while the next 22.5% and bottom 10% got ** and * respectively.
The criteria used in computing the CRISIL Composite Performance Rank are Superior Return Score, based on NAVs over the Quarter Ended Dec 14, Based on percentile of number of schemes
considered in the category, the schemes are ranked as follows: CPR 1- Very Good performance, CPR 2 - Good performance, CPR 3 - Average performance, CPR 4 - Below average and CPR 5 Relatively weak performance in the category.
Schemes shortlisted based on the corpus and age. Final picks arrived from return score (respective weightage given for rolling returns for 1m, 3m, 6m, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) and risk score. Schemes
from Quantum, Mirae and JM Mutual Funds have not been considered.

NFO:
Scheme name

Tenure

Open Date

Close Date

Minimum Investments

Reliance Equity Savings Fund (G)

5/12/2015

5/26/2015

5000

SBI Equity Savings Fund (G)

5/11/2015

5/25/2015

5000

Arbitrage Funds

Balanced
AXIS Hybrid Fund - Series 23 (G)

1275 Days

5/8/2015

5/21/2015

5000

ICICI Pru Multiple Yield Fund - Sr.9-Plan B-Reg(G)

1141 Days

5/7/2015

5/21/2015

5000

ICICI Pru Capital Protection Orient. VIII-C Reg(G)

1103 Days

4/28/2015

5/11/2015

5000

1115 Days

5/7/2015

5/21/2015

5000

Fixed Maturity Plans

Reliance Fixed Horizon - XXVIII - Sr.18 (G)

RETAIL RESEARCH

UTI-FTI - Series XXII - III(1099Days)-Reg (G)

1099 Days

5/6/2015

5/20/2015

5000

SBI Dual Advantage Fund - Series IX (G)

SBI Debt Fund Series B - 17 (G)

1111 Days

5/5/2015

5/19/2015

5000

1100 Days

5/14/2015

5/18/2015

5000

ICICI Pru FMP - Series 77 - 1473Days Plan C-Reg(G)

1473 Days

5/5/2015

5/14/2015

5000

Principal PNB FMP - 1099Days - Sr.B23 (G)

1099 Days

5/8/2015

5/14/2015

5000

HDFC FMP - 1106Days-May 2015(1)(XXXIII) (G)

1106 Days

5/5/2015

5/12/2015

5000

SBI Debt Fund Series B - 16 (G)

1100 Days

5/7/2015

5/11/2015

5000

4/29/2015

5/13/2015

500

5/5/2015

5/12/2015

5000

Income Funds
Quantum Dynamic Bond Fund (G)
Short Term Income Funds
Reliance Banking & PSU Debt Fund (G)

Mutual Fund NEWS:

Dividend
Scheme Name

Axis Mutual Fund has changed the fund manager of Axis Midcap Fund from Pankaj Murarka to Sudhanshu
Asthana with effect from May 08, 2015. The fund house has also decided to roll over Axis FTP Series 47
for 716 days. The scheme shall now mature on April 27, 2017 against the previous May 12, 2015.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A (Div-M)

Record Date

Gross (%)

Date

5/5/2015

4.60

5/6/2015

Kotak Emerging Equity Fund (D)

4/28/2015

21.00

4/29/2015

L&T India Prudence Fund (D)

4/27/2015

1.10

4/28/2015

Global Updates:

(Source: AMC Newsletters)

India:

Indias forex reserves increased by $ 7.26 bn to $ 351.87 bn in the week ending May 1.
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency to raise Rs 2000 cr of tax-free bonds to support the solar power initiatives of the government.
IMF describes India as the new bright spot in Asia, stating that although the nations near-term growth outlook has improved, its medium-term prospects remain constrained by long standing
structural weakness.
SEBI says its international advisory board (IAB) has acknowledged that a framework is essential to enable financing of startups given their potential in India.
Indias HSBC services purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 52.4 points in April from 53 in March; composite PMI fell from 53.2 points in March to a six-month low of 52.5 in April.
Lok Sabha passes the Constitution Amendment Bill to Goods and Service Tax (GST), paving the way for a new bill on the uniform tax regime.
Government increases the threshold for foreign investment proposals that require Cabinet approval to Rs 3000 cr from the current Rs 1200 cr.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says India has the potential to grow at a GDP rate of 9-10%.

Asia:

Chinas exports fell 6.4% in April from the year-ago period following a 15% fall in March, while imports plunged 16.2% year-on- year after falling 12.7% in March, resulting in a trade surplus of
$34.13 bn for April, compared with March's surplus of $3.08 bn.
The People's Bank of China decides to lower its benchmark, one-year lending rate by 25 bps to 5.1% from May 11; also cuts the benchmark deposit rate by the same amount to 2.25%.
Bank of Japan meeting minutes shows that some board members of the bank warned that private consumption remained weak despite improvements in job markets.
Japans services PMI increased to 51.3 in April from 48.4 in March; the composite PMI climbed to 50.7 in April from 48.4 in the previous month.

US:

US non-farm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 in April from a downwardly revised 85,000 in March; the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, compared with 5.5% in March.
US wholesale inventories rose 0.1% in March after a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in February.
US initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 2 rose by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 from the previous weeks total of 262,000.
US consumer credit rose to $20.5 bn in March, compared with $14.8 bn in February.
US labor productivity fell at 1.9% rate in the first quarter of 2015 after dropping at a 2.1% rate in the final three months of 2014; labor costs surged at a 5% rate in the first quarter of 2015 after
having increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter.
US trade deficit surged to its highest level in nearly 6-1/2 years in March to $51.4 bn compared to Februarys revised shortfall of $ 35.9 bn.
US Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.8 in April from 56.5 in March.

UKs trade deficit in the month of March narrowed to 10.12 bn pounds from 10.80 bn pounds in February.
UK Markit/CIPS services PMI rose to 59.5 in April, from 58.9 in March; the composite PMI fell to 53.9 in April from 54.0 in March.

UK:

Euro Zone:

European Commission forecasts that GDP in the 19-nation Eurozone should grow at 1.5% this year, up from its previous forecast in February of 1.3%; forecasts growth in the 28-nation
European Union at 1.8% this year, up from 1.7% forecast in February.
Euro zone producer prices increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in March, compared to a gain of 0.6% in February.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Economic Calendar:
Date

Country

Event

Period

Frequency

Unit

Previous

11/5/2015

India

Foreign tourist arrivals (YoY Chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

5.3

11/5/2015

India

Power generation

Apr

Monthly

bln kwh

86.1

11/5/2015

India

Automobile sales data (y/y chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

-0.15

11/5/2015

UK

BOE Announcement (Change)

May, 2015

Monthly

bp

12/5/2015

India

IIP (YoY Chg)

Mar

Monthly

pct

12/5/2015

India

CPI Inflation - Rural (YoY Chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

5.58

12/5/2015

India

CPI Inflation - Urban (YoY Chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

4.75

12/5/2015

India

CPI Inflation - Combined (YoY Chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

5.17

12/5/2015

India

OECD composite leading indicator for India

Mar

Monthly

12/5/2015

UK

Industrial Production (IP-M/M)

Mar, 2015

Monthly

12/5/2015

US

Redbook

wk5/9, 2015

Weekly

13-05-2015

India

Reserve Money (change on year)

Wk to May 8

13-05-2015

India

91 day T- Bills auction of Rs 80 bln (cut-off yld)

13-05-2015

India

GSM mobile subscriber

13-05-2015

India

13-05-2015

India

13-05-2015

India

364 day T- Bills auction of Rs 60 bln (cut-off yld)

13-05-2015

India

M3 (YoY Chg)

Wk to May 1

13-05-2015

European Monetary Union

GDP Flash (Quarter over Quarter)

14-05-2015

India

14-05-2015

US

14-05-2015
15-05-2015

99.5
Percent

0.1

Weekly

pct

13.26

Weekly

pct

7.98

Apr

Monthly

Million

705.2

Foreign merchandise trade Exports (YoY Chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

-21.06

Foreign merchandise trade Imports (YoY Chg)

Apr

Monthly

pct

-13.44

Fortnightly

pct

7.91

Fortnightly

pct

11

Q1, 2015

Quarterly

Percent

0.3

WPI Inflation (YoY Chg) New Series (Base 2004-05)

Apr

Monthly

pct

-2.33

Jobless Claims

wk5/9, 2015

Weekly

US

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

wk5/10, 2015

Weekly

US

Fed Balance Sheet

wk5/13, 2015

Weekly

15-05-2015

India

Output of Crude oil

Apr

Monthly

mln tn

3.23

15-05-2015

India

Output of Refinery

Apr

Monthly

mln tn

18.75

15-05-2015

India

Output of Natural gas

Apr

Monthly

bln cu m

2.84

15-05-2015

India

WMA (ways and means advance) - to state govts

Wk to May 8

Weekly

Rs bln

10.67

15-05-2015

India

FX reserve (change on wk)

Wk to May 8

Weekly

$ mln

7263.2

15-05-2015

India

Bank Deposit (YoY Chg)

Wk to May 1

Fortnightly

pct

11.4

15-05-2015

India

Bank Credit (YoY Chg)

Wk to May 1

Fortnightly

pct

9.8

15-05-2015

India

Bank Investment (YoY Chg)

Wk to May 1

Fortnightly

pct

15-05-2015

India

Bank Cash Deposit Ratio

Wk to May 1

Fortnightly

4.75

15-05-2015

India

Bank Investment Deposit Ratio

Wk to May 1

Fortnightly

29.57

15-05-2015

India

Bank Credit Deposit Ratio

Wk to May 1

Fortnightly

75.73

RETAIL RESEARCH

14

Economy Updates
US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee

The US dollar appreciated against the rupee by 0.74% for the week ended 08th May,
2015. The fall in Rupee was weighed down by concerns over the government's taxation
policies that threaten to reduce the allure of local assets for foreign institutions.

WPI Inflation (YoY)

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation came in at -2.33 per cent for the month of
March, as compared to -2.06 per cent for February and six per cent for the same period
last year, reflecting lower commodity prices. On the other hand, CPI inflation for March
eased to 5.17 per cent, the lowest in three months, aided by lower food prices in spite of
crop damage due to unseasonal rain.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Relationship among policy rates and benchmarks:

The RBI maintained the rates at its latest meet.

Deposit vs. Advance Growth (YoY)%

Outstanding credit of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) decreased by Rs.2.3 trillion to

Rs.66 trillion during the fortnight ended 17 April 2015. Non-food credit fell by Rs.2.5
trillion to Rs.65.2 trillion while food credit rose by Rs.178.96 billion to Rs.871.3 billion.
Outstanding deposits of SCBs decreased by Rs.1.9 trillion to Rs.87.2 trillion during the
fortnight ended 17 April 2015. Time deposits fell by Rs.429.8 billion to Rs.79.2 trillion.
Demand deposits fell by Rs.1.5 trillion to Rs.8 trillion.

Money Stock (M3) (YoY) (%)

Money supply (M3) fell by Rs.1.3 trillion to Rs.107.5 trillion during the fortnight ended 17
April 2015. On a y-o-y basis, growth in money supply decelerated to 11 per cent from 12
per cent a fortnight ago. Among the components of money supply, time deposits
decreased by Rs.424.6 billion to Rs.84.1 trillion during the fortnight ended 17 April 2015.

Foreign Exchange Reserves (mn of USD)

Indias forex reserves increased by $ 7.26 bn to $ 351.87 bn in the week ending May 1.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Corporate Bonds Spread Vs Gilt Securities:

Corporate bond yields fell last week. The one year AAA credit spreads rose by 8 basis
points while 10 year spread rose by 4 basis points.

Liquidity support from RBI (Bn. Rs)

The liquidity in the banking system improved during last week compared to the previous
week. The net infusion from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs. 12,192 crore for
last week (Rs. 19,202 crore in previous week). The inter-bank call rates traded around
6.65% levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were positioned at 6.71% level.

MFs net investment in Debt (Rs Crs):

Certificates of Deposit (%):

In Apr, MF have bought debt worth Rs. 22,584 crore while in Mar, they bought Rs.
75,393 crore. So far in May, MF sold debts worth Rs. 1,797 crore.

CD rates are trending marginally higher in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered around
8.35% levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).

FIIs net investment in Debt (Rs Crs):

Commercial Paper (%):

In April, FII bought debt worth Rs. 3,483 crore while in Mar, they have bought debt
worth Rs. 5,949 crore. So far in May, FII sold debt worth Rs. 5,978 crore.

Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading higher in the recent periods. The CP rates are
hovering around 8.9% levels (one year maturity CP).

Analyst: Dhuraivel Gunasekaran (dhuraivel.gunasekaran@hdfcsec.com)

RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email:
hdfcsecretailresearch@hdfcsec.com
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
(Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.

RETAIL RESEARCH