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**November 2015 Syllabus with Learning Objective/Outcomes and Readings
**

The Probability Exam is a three-hour exam that consists of 30 multiple-choice questions and is

administered as a computer-based test.

The purpose of the syllabus for this examination is to develop knowledge of the fundamental

probability tools for quantitatively assessing risk. The application of these tools to problems

encountered in actuarial science is emphasized. A thorough command of the supporting

calculus is assumed. Additionally, a very basic knowledge of insurance and risk management is

assumed.

A table of values for the normal distribution is available below for candidates to download and

will be included with the examination. Since the table will be included with the examination,

candidates will not be allowed to bring copies of the table into the examination room.

Check the Updates section on this exam’s home page for any changes to the exam or syllabus.

The ranges of weights shown are intended to apply to the large majority of exams

administered. On occasion, the weights of topics on an individual exam may fall outside the

published range. Candidates should also recognize that some questions may cover multiple

learning outcomes.

Each multiple-choice problem includes five answer choices identified by the letters A, B, C, D, and E, only

one of which is correct. Candidates must indicate responses to each question on the computer.

As part of the computer-based testing process, a few pilot questions will be randomly placed in the

exam (paper and pencil and computer-based forms). These pilot questions are included to judge their

effectiveness for future exams, but they will not be used in the scoring of this exam. All other questions

will be considered in the scoring. All unanswered questions are scored incorrect. Therefore, candidates

should answer every question on the exam. There is no set requirement for the distribution of correct

answers for the multiple-choice preliminary examinations. It is possible that a particular answer choice

could appear many times on an examination or not at all. Candidates are advised to answer each

question to the best of their ability, independently from how they have answered other questions on

the examination.

Since the CBT exam will be offered over a period of a few days, each candidate will receive a test form

composed of questions selected from a pool of questions. Statistical scaling methods are used to ensure

within reasonable and practical limits that, during the same testing period of a few days, all forms of the

test are comparable in content and passing criteria. The methodology that has been adopted is used by

many credentialing programs that give multiple forms of an exam.

LEARNING OUTCOMES Candidates should be able to use and apply the following concepts in a risk management context: 1. negative binomial. General Probability (15-30%) • • • • • • Set functions including set notation and basic elements of probability Mutually exclusive events Addition and multiplication rules Independence of events Combinatorial probability Conditional probability Bayes Theorem / Law of total probability 2. and normal) (30-50%) Probability functions and probability density functions Cumulative distribution functions Sums of Independent Random Variables (Poisson and normal) Mode. geometric. Poisson. Random Variables witn multivariate probability distributions (including the bivariate normal) (30-45%) • • • • • • • • • • Joint probability functions and joint probability density functions Joint cumulative distribution functions Central Limit Theorem Conditional and marginal probability distributions Moments for joint. and marginal probability distributions Joint moment generating functions Variance and measures of dispersion for conditional and marginal probability distributions Covariance and correlation coefficients Transformations and order statistics Probabilities and moments for linear combinations of independent random variables . gamma. exponential. median. conditional. and moments Variance and measures of dispersion Moment generating functions Transformations 3. hypergeometric. Random Variables with univariate probability distributions (including binomial. uniform. percentiles.

Available at no cost the sample exam selects questions and solutions in an online exam experience that resembles the computer-based testing employed for most of the SOA’s preliminary exams. There is no advantage to selecting a text recently added or not using a text recently removed. M. R. 2006. Pearson/Prentice Hall.5) Other Resources The candidate is expected to be familiar with the concepts introduced in “Risk and Insurance”. The addition or deletion of a textbook does not change the bank of questions available for examinations. Tanis. and D. Thomson Brooks/Cole ISBN: 978-0495110811. ISBN: 978-156698-2. 2014. A First Course in Probability (Ninth Edition). Chapters 1–11. S. Mendenhall III. R. 2008. by Ross. E. M. Chapters 1–5. Earlier or later editions may also be adequate for review.REFERENCES Suggested Texts There is no single required text for this exam. and Stewart. ACTEX. (Second Edition) 2015.. (Second Edition). by Hassett.. Zimmerman.A. Probability for Risk Management. by Asimow. Chapters 1-7. by Hogg. Chapters 1–8 Mathematical Statistics with Applications (Seventh Edition). Probability and Statistical Inference (Ninth Edition).. Candidates may wish to use more than one of the following or other texts of their choosing in their preparation. ISBN: 978-1-62542-472-3. W.. The texts listed below may be considered as representative of the many texts available to cover material on which the candidate may be examined.V. ISBN: 978-0321923271. D. D.M.. Probability and Statistics with Applications: A Problem Solving Text. ACTEX.. L. ISBN: 978-0321794772. Chapters 1–8 (excluding section 8. and Maxwell. 2012... Texts are added and deleted as part of a regular process to keep the list up-to-date. Questions have been coded to meet the Exam P learning objectives and ensure candidates receive a balanced yet randomized set of questions each time they repeat . Not all the topics may be covered adequately by just one text. To that end the SOA has launched an online sample exam for Exam P (Probability). by Wackerly. Tables for Exam P/1 Exam P/1 Sample Questions and Solutions Online Sample Exam P The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is interested in supporting candidates as they prepare for the preliminary exams. Scheaffer. Prentice Hall.

.the sample exam. The current set of questions is drawn from the existing set of sample questions.

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