EU Employment and Social

Situation Quarterly Review
March 2013

10 Key facts and figures

Social Europe

9% of active pop. 12% of act.Acceleration in the EA 4 . and marginally-attached Social Europe . Labour market situation persistently deteriorating % of active population . PT workers [une_rt_m].1. to 26. Seasonally adjusted data rise in under-empl.Positive developments only in 9 part-time work EU 8 .Unemployment rose further in US 7 February. National accounts. / 19.Employment at EU level has Chart 1: Unemployment rates in the EU and the US been trending down since mid.As opposed to the US. 10.1 6 mln in EA. but 06:01 07:01 08:01 09:01 10:01 11:01 12:01 13:01 careful with official statistics > Source: Eurostat. pop.3 mln in EU.11 2011 (-0.2% in 2012q4) 10 . 5 .

Data seasonally adjusted.Decline more marked in the EA .1. National accounts [namq_aux_pem] and LFS [une_nb_m]. • . LFS. DG EMPL calculation.Steepest falls in EL.Job-finding rate has decreased further to 11. CY. BG.) Chart 2: Employment in the EU and the euro area. 2005-12 . 2005-12 Source: Eurostat.7% in 2012q3 • . Labour market situation persistently deteriorating (cont.Harder for unemployed people to find a job • .Net job losses biggest in construction (-15% since 2008) Chart 3: Employment in the EU and the euro area. ES and PT (> 4% fall y-o-y) .Job separation rate remained stable Social Europe . Source: Eurostat.

2.North (DK.5 pps in 2011 • .North (AT. Divergence accelerating in the EA • .South and periphery (ES.8 pp in 2012q3 Chart 4: Diverging unemployment rates by groups of euro area (EA) and non-EA Member States since 2000 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012q3 EU-27 EA-17 EA . CY. DG EMPL calculation. Social Europe . MT. BE. LFS. SK. CZ. Notes: 2012 data available until 2012q3. PL. DE.10 pps in 2012.7. HU. LU. • . IE. SI. SE. UK) Source: Eurostat. IT.Divergence between the north and south/periphery of the EA in terms of UR accelerated since 2011. EL. LT.Out of the EA. Weighted average: aggregate unemployment rate = aggregate unemployment level / aggregate labour force. FR. PT. LV. FI.South and periphery (BG. RO) Non EA . EE) Non EA . NL) EA . between avg 17% in south/periph and 7% in the north • . gap was only 0.

5% in February . Situation of youth remains grave .Youth unemployment at a high: 23.8 pp to 7.Reaching extremes at the periphery of the EA / EU .LT unemployment and inactivity gaining ground for young people: +0. Social Europe . Series on unemployment.3.1% of active youth in the year to 2012q3 .Serious risks for the young generation: 8 million NEETs aged less than 25 Chart 5: Youth unemployment rates and y-o-y changes. Jan' 2013 Source: Eurostat.

[lfsq_unemp] and [lfsq_inac]. ES >< rises in LV. PT.4.Rise for prime-age adults / fall for youth… Chart 6: Changes (year-on-year and four years to 2012q3) in employment rate broken down into changes in the unemployment ratio and inactivity rate for the EU by population groups Source: Source: Eurostat. second bar – fouryear change 2008q3-2012q3. Social Europe . LT. LFS. CY. MT and LU .Rise for women / fall for men . Note: First bar – one-year change 2011q3-2012q3.But this hides significant differences across MS: major declines in EL. Employment rates are diverging . Data non-seasonally adjusted [lfsq_emprt].Apparent relative stability in EU aggregate employment rate .

Social Europe 14 16 .5(a).0.34 ES CY BG 5 SI -4 20 2007 EL 15 DK LU 0 SE FI AT -2 0 EE -5 NL HUCZ MT BE 2 DE PT IT EASK EU FR IE PL UK 4 LT 6 RO 8 10 12 LV 2012 15 -4 -6 -10 10 -8 Net lending / borrowing change 2009-2012 (pps) 5 -10 -12 0 Net lending / borrowing (lhs) Source: Ameco. compared to the cyclically adjusted primary balance of Member States. Negative impact of crisis and fiscal consolidation on unemployment Chart 8: Developments in cyclically adjusted primary balance (net lending/borrowing position).5103 R² = 0. GDP y-o-y growth (based on Q3 data) (lhs) UR (based on Q3 data) (rhs) Source: Sources: Ameco. UBLGBP series and Eurostat series for GDP [namq_gdp_k] and unemployment [une_rt_q].Clear impact in EL and PT 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 y = 0.Fiscal tightening has affected employment through both direct (public sector employment) and indirect (aggregate demand) channels • . 2007–2012. 2009–2012 20 Unemployment rate change 2009q3-2012q3 (pps) • .6747x . GDP growth and unemployment rate in Greece. percentages 6 30 4 25 2 0 -2 Chart 7: Unemployment developments. UBLGBP series and Eurostat series on unemployment [une_rt_q].

DG EMPL calculations. Social Europe . negligible in 2012 • . Reduction of social spending much stronger than in past recession • .5(b).Social spending played a prominent role in compensating households' income losses in the early phase of the crisis (until 2009) >< impact weakening since mid-2010.A significant part of fiscal consolidation efforts weighed on social protection expenditure • . National accounts.Reduction of social spending was much stronger than in past recessions Chart 9: Deviation from the trend of public social expenditure and GDP output gap in current and past recessions EU27 Source: Eurostat.

Social Europe . Negative impact of fiscal consolidation on household incomes Chart 10: Contribution of different austerity measures to change in households incomes. overall (below) and at different points of the income distribution in selected Member States (right) Source: EUROMOD (cumulated impact of austerity measures on households disposable incomes).5(c).

in all income quartiles .Although it has eased slightly in recent months . Social Europe . Households' financial distress well above long-term average • . reporting financial distress remains well above levels observed anytime in the previous decade.Financial distress affects almost 25% of low-income households at EU level .Share of the EU pop.6.The share of people running into debt continues to rise steadily Chart 11: Reported financial distress in EU households by income quartile of household (2000-2013) Source: Joint harmonised EU consumer surveys & DG EMPL calculations.

7.0 8.0 Germany 8 27 .5 12q1 6 9 LSI 3.5 9.5 7.5 7. derived from EU business survey results (% of manufacturing firms pointing to labour shortage as a factor limiting production). NL. No data for Ireland due to a lack of business survey results.0 8.5 6. PT and SI Chart 12: Beveridge curve for the EU-27 & selected MS. IT.2012 LSI 12 10 LSI 16 14 EU-27 08q1 Poland 08q1 12 8 10 8 6 12q1 11q1 12q4 4 12q1 11q1 12q4 4 09q1 2 09q1 6 UR 10q1 UR 2 10q1 0 0 6.0 10. 2008 .0 9. PL .5 11.0 6.5 10.0 7. Note: UR = unemployment rate (%).Increased mismatching between human capital offered and jobs available in EU-27.5 4 10 08q1 2. BG. possibly BE and RO .UR increased significantly while labour shortage low in EL. ES.0 LSI 12 6 7 10 8 11q1 2. Contrasts in terms of LM matching .0 09q1 2 10q1 UR 0 12q1 0.0 5. FR.5 8.Situation very diverse across the EU .5 8.Lower level of vacancies for a given UR only in DE. Social Europe UR 10q1 0.0 11 Spain 1.5 12q4 5. LSI = labour shortage indicator.0 08q1 11q1 09q1 12q4 1.0 7.5 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Source: Eurostat [une_rt_q] and [bsin_q_r2]. CY.

"Portable document A1" can be Chart 13: Changes in the number of posted workers sent used as a proxy for estimating abroad over 2009-2011. the Netherlands and Austria Source: Administrative data from EU Member States.Largest sending countries are Poland. their number rose from 1 million in 2009 to 1. the number of posted workers sent abroad has increased the most from Central and Eastern Europe Member States Social Europe . IS.Across EU countries. followed by France.Largest destination country by far is Germany.Over 2009-11. LI and NO on PD A1. Belgium. Posting of workers: on the rise .8.2 million in 2011 . . Germany and France . by sending country (in thousands and in %) trends in posting of workers .

showing that managers in this sector expect employment to stabilise. Labour market outlook remains bleak • .As a result of GDP contraction in the last quarter of 2012. although prospects for services and construction remain particularly depressed • European consumers’ expectations of unemployment are slightly less pessimistic. the employment outlook is very bleak • .Unemployment foreseen to remain at a very high level up until 2014 • .These prospects are. however.9. but remain significantly higher than their long-term average at EU aggregate level Social Europe . not fully reflected in labour market players' recorded expectations: • Employment prospects in industry in the EU have remained slightly above their long-term average in recent months.

Since 2009 fertility has stopped its recent recovery • .10. that is 1 per thousand • .Migration has decreased from its 2007 peak but even in 2011 the EU posted a net increase of ½ million.4 years for men and 83.Life expectancy continued to increase and reached 77.Citizenship acquisitions are higher.1 for women • . at almost one million • >> The challenges for EU labour markets from a shrinking and ageing workforce clearly remain! Social Europe .The mean age of women at childbirth has kept rising and has reached the 30-year threshold • . Demographic trends: crisis has negatively affected fertility recovery • .

eu/social/main.europa. the FAQ and the Special Supplement (URL: http://ec. the press release.jsp?langId=en&catId= 89&newsId=1852&furtherNews=yes&preview=cHJldmll d0VtcGxQb3J0YWwhMjAxMjAyMTU=) Social Europe .Thank you for your attention! Please consult our website to download the report.