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# M 349R (Unique 54515)

## Applied Regression and Time Series

Spring 15
Introduction and Course Objectives
The purpose of this course is to provide students in statistics and applied
disciplines with an introduction to simple and multiple regression methods for analyzing
relationships among several variables, and to elementary time series analysis. The
emphasis will be on fitting suitable models to data, evaluating models using numerical
and graphical techniques and interpreting the results in the context of the original
problem, as opposed to derivation of mathematical properties of the models. At the end
of this course students will be able to analyze many kinds of data in which one variable
of interest is thought to depend on, or at least be related to, several other measured
quantities, and some kinds of data collected over time or in some other serial manner.
Topics include: least squares estimation; inference for regression coefficients and
prediction; residual analysis, multicollinearity, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, anova
and ancova, logistic regression time series regression, decomposition methods,
exponential smoothing, arima models (Box-Jenkins Methodology), model identification,
model diagnostics and validation, forecasting.
Instructor: Gustavo Cepparo
Office: RLM 13.148
E-mail: gcepparo@math.utexas.edu
Lectures:
MWF at 11:00 12:00

Phone: 232-6189

RLM 5.104

Office hours:
M W 12:05 p.m. - 1:05 p.m.
F 8:00 - 9:00 a.m.
Textbook:
Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression, by Bowerman (Duxbury, 2005).
Prerequisites:
A semester of statistics such as Applied Statistics (M358K) or Mathematical
Statistics (M378K).
Homework:
Homework will be assigned regularly. There will be quite a lot of homework, and
most of it involves computer work. I will not grade any disorganized or difficult-to-read
assignments. Your homework is your best piece of work. I will not accept homework in
loose sheets of paper. No late assignments will be accepted.
Format: Must be stapled and no ripped pages from a notebook will be accepted. Write
your name at the top of each page. The first page should state the class, section number,
instructors name, and book sections included in the homework assignment. Label each
question clearly, specifying the section and exercise number (i.e. 4.1 #32). Should be
organized, clean, and easy to read.

## Grading: 5 assignments 8% each

Final Project 12% and 3 Tests 16% each.
Note: This course carries the Quantitative Reasoning flag. Quantitative Reasoning
courses are designed to equip you with skills that are necessary for understanding the
types of quantitative arguments you will regularly encounter in your adult and
professional life. You should therefore expect a substantial portion of your grade to come
from your use of quantitative skills to analyze real-world problems.

B: 80-89;

C: 70-79;

D: 60-69;

F: below 60

## Calendar (Lecture by lecture) M349R (approximate calendar on 44

days three times a week)
Please note: schedule changes may occur during the semester. Any changes will be
announced in class.

Week 1
Mon.

Wed.

Week 2
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.
Week 3
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

## The Univariate Model (as a base model) and

Randomization (Two sample and Matched Pairs
Test) using R.
One sample t and Checking conditions with
Bootstrap distributions with R.

## The Bivariate Model vs Univariate Model. Simple

Regression. The Least Squares estimator.
Root Mean Square Error and Adequate Predictor.
Inference on Regression and Residual Plots.

## Continue with Inference on Regression and

Coefficient of Determination.
Calculating Standard Errors for Confidence
Intervals and Prediction Intervals
Total Regression and Partial Regression
(Correlation and Partial Correlation). Simpsons

Week 4
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

Week 5
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

Week 6
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

Week 7
Mon.

## Multiple Regression and Interpreting Coefficients.

Residual Plots (again) in the context of Multiple
Regression
Overall F-test and Individual t-tests. Dummy
Variables

## Continue with Dummy Variable notation. One-way

Anova from Regression and Traditional Approach.
Interaction, Partial F-test.
More Practice with Dummy Variables and
Variance Covariance Matrix and Ancova.

## Continue with Ancova.

Collinearity.
Continue with Collinearity.
(Test 1)

Wed.
Fri.

## Residual Analysis (Hat-values, DfFits, DfBetas,

Studentized Residuals).
Continue with Residual Analysis (Using more SAS).
Continue with Residual Analysis.

Week 8
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

Heteroskedasticity.
Continue with Heteroskedasticity (Using more SAS).
Continue with Heteroskedasticity.

Week 9
Mon.

Wed.

## Autocorrelation in Regression and in Time series

Regression. Dummy variables for Seasonal Models
in Time Series Regression with AR(1) errors structure.
An example of a Random Walk. The intercept model
in TS Regression.

Fri.

Week 10
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

Week 11
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.
Week 12
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.
Week 13
Mon.

Wed.
Fri.

Week 14
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

## Moving Average and Random Walk (Calculate:

Expectation, Variance, Covariance and Correlation for
MA(1), MA(2) and AR(1))

## MA(1) and AR(1) (Using only SAS).

Correlograms (ACF and PACF).
Estimation MLE and Method of Moments (MoM).
(Test 2)

## Four steps of Arima Modeling (Backshift Notation)

(Using SAS)
Four steps of Arima Modeling (Model Comparison)
Intro to Seasonal Models (Box Jenkins Models)

## Continue with Seasonal (Muttiplicative Backshift

Notation)
Continue with Seasonal
Review Seasonal and Nonseasonal

## Two out of three Optional Topics (below): Intervention

Models and Building a Transfer Function Model (if time
permits).
Intervention Models and Building a Transfer Function
Model (with SAS)
Intervention Models and Building a Transfer Function
Model

## Linear Probability Model and Logistic Regression

Model
Linear Probability Model and Logistic Regression
Model
Linear Probability Model and Logistic Regression
Model (if time permits)

Week 15
Mon.
Wed.
Fri.

## Delta Method for one and two parameters (Confidence

Intervals and Hypothesis Testing) (if time permits)
A day for in class Test
A day for in class Test

Computer Work. In this class we will be using SAS, R. I will distribute some material
that will help you get started with SAS and R. Data will be imported to SAS from Excel.
Data will be imported to R from notepad.
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## Students requiring assistance in evacuation shall inform their

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information and instructions to students:
Occupants of buildings on The University of Texas at Austin campus
are required to evacuate buildings when a fire alarm is activated.
Alarm activation or announcement requires exiting and assembling
outside.
Familiarize yourself with all exit doors of each classroom and
building you may occupy. Remember that the nearest exit door may not
be the one you used when entering the building.

## Students requiring assistance in evacuation shall inform their

instructor in writing during the first week of class.
In the event of an evacuation, follow the instruction of faculty or
class instructors.
Do not re-enter a building unless given instructions by the
following: Austin Fire Department, The University of Texas at Austin
Police Department, or Fire Prevention Services office.