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Electoral projections for the next federal elections

Projections lectorales pour la prochaine lection fdrale

www.tooclosetocall.ca
www.silatendancesemaintient.ca

05/09/2015
%
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Prairies
Alberta
BC
Canada*

CPC
22.8
15.1
32.3
40.0
48.4
31.7
30.3

LPC
41.2
21.3
32.9
29.3
19.4
25.5
28.0

NDP
30.8
43.0
29.3
25.1
26.2
33.2
32.2

Green
4.1
3.0
4.7
4.5
3.3
8.8
4.8

Seats/Siges
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Prairies
Alberta
BC
Territories

6
4
45
17
30
13
1

19
10
48
5
0
9
1

7
64
28
6
4
19
1

0
0
0
0
0
1
0

0
-

Canada

116

92

129

CPC
22%
16%
15%
23%
10%
5%
9%
21%
18%

LPC
46%
67%
68%
53%
68%
20%
41%
64%
52%

NDP
30%
15%
15%
22%
19%
72%
48%
12%
27%

Green
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%

Bloc

PEI

NFL

Riding/Circonscription
Avalon
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame
Labrador
Long Range Mountains
St. John's East
St. John's South--Mount Pearl
Cardigan
Charlottetown

Bloc
16.6

3.5

Probability of winning most seats (with


majority below)
Probabilits de gagner le plus de siges (et
d'une majorit en-dessous)
CPC
23.7%
0.0%

LPC
1.1%
0.0%

NDP
75.2%
0.0%

Green
0.0%
0.0%

Bloc
0.0%
0.0%

Probability of winning the riding


Probabilit de remporter la circonscription

CPC
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

LPC
NDP
98.9%
1.1%
100.0% 0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
16.7% 83.3%
100.0% 0.0%
100.0% 0.0%

Green
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Bloc

PEI
NS
NB

Egmont
37%
Malpeque
22%
Cape Breton--Canso
18%
Central Nova
38%
Cumberland--Colchester
35%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour
10%
Halifax
3%
Halifax West
15%
Kings--Hants
22%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook
15%
South Shore--St. Margarets
25%
Sydney--Victoria
23%
West Nova
29%
Acadie--Bathurst
1%
Beausjour
17%
Fredericton
30%
Fundy Royal
40%
Madawaska--Restigouche
24%
Miramichi--Grand Lake
35%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe
22%
New Brunswick Southwest
39%
Saint John--Rothesay
32%
Tobique--Mactaquac
44%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou
21%
Abitibi--Tmiscamingue
9%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville
8%
Alfred-Pellan
10%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation
13%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapdia
12%
Beauce
49%
Beauport-Cte-de-Beaupr-le d'Orlans-Charlevoix
22%
Beauport--Limoilou
23%
Bcancour--Nicolet--Saurel
12%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lvis
42%

46%
56%
56%
27%
32%
47%
38%
50%
52%
23%
31%
52%
51%
26%
53%
38%
24%
50%
35%
43%
27%
30%
30%
18%
13%
36%
29%
21%
30%
19%
12%
15%
17%
14%

14%
17%
21%
30%
25%
38%
53%
30%
21%
56%
39%
20%
15%
71%
25%
27%
30%
22%
26%
30%
26%
34%
22%
45%
52%
40%
43%
45%
27%
30%
39%
46%
37%
34%

3%
5%
4%
5%
7%
5%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
5%
1%
5%
6%
6%
3%
4%
5%
7%
4%
4%
5%
2%
2%
2%
4%
3%
2%
2%
3%
4%
2%

11%
24%
13%
16%
17%
27%
0%
25%
13%
30%
8%

30.2%
0.0%
0.0%
95.9%
87.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.2%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
25.2%
98.6%
0.1%
76.1%
0.1%
99.0%
59.4%
99.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
99.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
88.8%

69.8%
100.0%
100.0%
1.3%
11.9%
89.4%
1.8%
99.7%
100.0%
0.0%
12.3%
100.0%
99.2%
0.0%
100.0%
72.1%
0.1%
99.9%
23.3%
96.8%
0.7%
8.6%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
35.2%
2.2%
0.0%
47.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.8%
0.9%
10.6%
98.2%
0.3%
0.0%
100.0%
84.5%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
2.7%
1.3%
0.0%
0.6%
3.1%
0.3%
32.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
64.8%
97.8%
100.0%
17.0%
0.3%
98.3%
100.0%
69.6%
11.2%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
35.4%
0.0%
1.5%
0.0%
30.4%
0.0%

QC

Beloeil--Chambly
Berthier--Maskinong
Bourassa
Brome--Missisquoi
Brossard--Saint-Lambert
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles
Chteauguay--Lacolle
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord
Compton--Stanstead
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle
Drummond
Gaspsie--Les les-de-la-Madeleine
Gatineau
Hochelaga
Honor-Mercier
Hull--Aylmer
Joliette
Jonquire
La Pointe-de-l'le
La Prairie
Lac-Saint-Jean
Lac-Saint-Louis
LaSalle--mard--Verdun
Laurentides--Labelle
Laurier--Sainte-Marie
Laval--Les les
Lvis--Lotbinire
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert
Louis-Hbert
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Manicouagan
Marc-Aurle-Fortin
Mgantic--L'rable

8%
12%
8%
10%
12%
28%
11%
24%
10%
13%
14%
18%
7%
6%
12%
9%
9%
32%
7%
8%
41%
27%
9%
8%
3%
15%
38%
9%
8%
20%
36%
10%
9%
48%

17%
19%
39%
28%
39%
15%
17%
14%
18%
35%
15%
24%
20%
17%
39%
27%
13%
11%
16%
20%
11%
38%
23%
20%
16%
27%
13%
20%
17%
22%
15%
14%
20%
14%

49%
42%
41%
43%
37%
45%
49%
38%
48%
41%
52%
30%
62%
49%
36%
59%
48%
43%
49%
50%
32%
30%
46%
45%
49%
48%
38%
46%
51%
39%
40%
49%
49%
26%

3%
3%
1%
3%
2%
2%
3%
2%
3%
4%
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%
3%
5%
2%
3%
2%
2%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%
2%

23%
24%
10%
16%
10%
9%
20%
21%
20%
7%
16%
26%
9%
25%
11%
2%
25%
12%
26%
19%
14%
0%
18%
24%
28%
7%
8%
21%
22%
17%
7%
24%
18%
10%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.8%
0.0%
0.0%
89.9%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
48.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
26.2%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%

0.0%
0.0%
49.7%
2.6%
67.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
32.9%
0.0%
10.4%
0.0%
0.0%
77.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
95.2%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

100.0%
99.7%
50.3%
97.4%
33.0%
99.2%
100.0%
98.3%
100.0%
67.1%
100.0%
53.1%
100.0%
100.0%
22.1%
100.0%
100.0%
94.2%
99.9%
100.0%
10.1%
4.2%
99.7%
99.9%
99.7%
99.8%
52.0%
100.0%
100.0%
99.6%
73.8%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
36.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Mirabel
8%
Montarville
9%
Montcalm
7%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivire-du-Loup
35%
Mount Royal
34%
Notre-Dame-de-Grce--Westmount
17%
Outremont
7%
Papineau
4%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchres
7%
Pierrefonds--Dollard
26%
Pontiac
25%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier
0%
Qubec
16%
Repentigny
6%
Richmond--Arthabaska
24%
Rimouski-Neigette--Tmiscouata--Les Basques
13%
Rivire-des-Mille-les
9%
Rivire-du-Nord
7%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie
4%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot
15%
Saint-Jean
10%
Saint-Laurent
18%
Saint-Lonard--Saint-Michel
13%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain
16%
Salaberry--Surot
12%
Shefford
13%
Sherbrooke
8%
Terrebonne
7%
Thrse-De Blainville
9%
Trois-Rivires
12%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges
16%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--le-des-Soeurs 11%
Vimy
12%
Ajax
28%

15%
19%
12%
12%
45%
43%
27%
43%
17%
35%
22%
20%
17%
15%
14%
16%
18%
13%
15%
12%
15%
48%
47%
18%
15%
15%
17%
14%
17%
17%
19%
32%
27%
49%

51%
46%
53%
36%
18%
35%
56%
30%
46%
34%
47%
58%
43%
53%
33%
44%
50%
56%
53%
53%
48%
29%
33%
42%
45%
51%
45%
53%
51%
51%
44%
42%
43%
20%

3%
3%
5%
2%
3%
6%
3%
3%
3%
5%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
3%
3%
4%
4%
3%
4%

24%
23%
24%
15%
0%
0%
7%
20%
27%
0%
3%
18%
20%
23%
26%
24%
20%
21%
26%
18%
23%
2%
5%
22%
26%
17%
28%
23%
21%
18%
18%
11%
16%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
40.9%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
98.8%
93.7%
0.0%
98.6%
0.0%
77.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
99.9%
98.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
22.5%
0.9%
99.7%

100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
59.1%
0.0%
6.3%
100.0%
1.4%
99.5%
22.4%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
75.9%
99.9%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.1%
1.1%
99.9%
99.6%
100.0%
99.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
77.5%
99.1%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
21.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill
Barrie--Innisfil
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte
Bay of Quinte
Beaches--East York
Brampton Centre
Brampton East
Brampton North
Brampton South
Brampton West
Brantford--Brant
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound
Burlington
Cambridge
Carleton
Chatham-Kent--Leamington
Davenport
Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Don Valley West
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham
Eglinton--Lawrence
Elgin--Middlesex--London
Essex
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Etobicoke--Lakeshore
Flamborough--Glanbrook
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Guelph
Haldimand--Norfolk
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock

18%
35%
46%
39%
41%
9%
30%
15%
33%
29%
26%
35%
40%
40%
39%
50%
39%
1%
23%
25%
29%
43%
44%
32%
45%
34%
27%
19%
26%
43%
38%
21%
37%
49%

24%
39%
23%
28%
28%
39%
36%
41%
39%
47%
47%
27%
26%
32%
24%
27%
25%
36%
47%
47%
51%
23%
22%
48%
22%
23%
50%
51%
44%
25%
38%
52%
34%
19%

55%
21%
25%
25%
27%
47%
28%
42%
23%
21%
24%
33%
22%
23%
32%
17%
32%
58%
27%
26%
16%
18%
28%
16%
29%
40%
19%
28%
25%
27%
20%
20%
25%
26%

4%
5%
7%
7%
5%
5%
6%
3%
5%
3%
3%
4%
11%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
2%
5%
16%
5%
4%
4%
3%
4%
1%
5%
5%
4%
7%
4%
6%

0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
30.6% 69.3%
0.1%
99.6%
0.2%
0.1%
92.1%
6.4%
1.5%
97.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.0%
15.3% 84.7%
20.2% 73.3%
6.5%
0.0%
43.0% 57.0%
21.3% 78.3%
0.4%
1.4%
98.5%
0.0%
0.3%
99.7%
0.0%
58.5%
6.5%
34.9%
96.6%
3.2%
0.3%
86.9% 12.9%
0.2%
84.0%
1.1%
14.9%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
84.8%
1.2%
14.0%
0.0%
0.3%
99.7%
0.0%
99.9%
0.1%
0.1%
99.8%
0.1%
0.2%
99.8%
0.0%
99.6%
0.4%
0.0%
99.5%
0.0%
0.4%
2.0%
98.0%
0.0%
98.7%
0.0%
1.3%
21.8%
0.2%
78.1%
0.1%
99.9%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.4%
99.5%
0.1%
98.8%
0.5%
0.7%
49.7% 50.3%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
66.7% 32.2%
1.1%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Ont.

Hamilton Centre
12%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
25%
Hamilton Mountain
20%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas
29%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington
44%
Humber River--Black Creek
9%
Huron--Bruce
39%
Kanata--Carleton
42%
Kenora
31%
Kingston and the Islands
24%
King--Vaughan
41%
Kitchener Centre
26%
Kitchener South--Hespeler
37%
Kitchener--Conestoga
41%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex
44%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
49%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau50%
Lakes
London North Centre
23%
London West
31%
London--Fanshawe
21%
Markham--Stouffville
34%
Markham--Thornhill
21%
Markham--Unionville
29%
Milton
41%
Mississauga Centre
25%
Mississauga East--Cooksville
27%
Mississauga--Erin Mills
30%
Mississauga--Lakeshore
31%
Mississauga--Malton
21%
Mississauga--Streetsville
30%
Nepean
40%
Newmarket--Aurora
38%
Niagara Centre
27%
Niagara Falls
40%

21%
22%
23%
34%
24%
56%
27%
33%
32%
46%
38%
42%
28%
33%
23%
23%
23%
43%
35%
20%
40%
47%
45%
33%
48%
47%
45%
48%
48%
46%
34%
35%
22%
27%

66%
49%
52%
32%
28%
32%
30%
19%
33%
25%
17%
26%
30%
22%
29%
22%
22%
29%
30%
55%
22%
28%
21%
20%
23%
22%
21%
17%
28%
20%
22%
21%
47%
28%

1%
4%
4%
5%
4%
2%
4%
5%
3%
5%
4%
6%
5%
5%
4%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
5%
3%
3%
4%
4%
3%
5%
5%
6%
3%
5%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
14.2%
99.2%
0.0%
86.4%
92.8%
24.0%
0.0%
63.9%
1.4%
82.5%
86.0%
98.7%
100.0%
100.0%
0.2%
19.8%
0.0%
22.4%
0.0%
2.5%
85.7%
0.1%
0.5%
3.2%
1.4%
0.0%
2.2%
83.1%
65.7%
0.2%
94.8%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
50.8%
0.1%
99.9%
4.2%
7.2%
36.9%
99.9%
36.1%
98.0%
7.3%
13.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
98.0%
64.9%
0.0%
77.4%
99.6%
97.5%
14.2%
99.9%
99.4%
96.8%
98.6%
99.6%
97.8%
16.8%
34.2%
0.0%
2.9%

100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
35.1%
0.7%
0.1%
9.3%
0.0%
39.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.7%
10.2%
0.1%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1.8%
15.2%
100.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
99.8%
2.3%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Niagara West
Nickel Belt
Nipissing--Timiskaming
Northumberland--Peterborough South
Oakville
Oakville North--Burlington
Orlans
Oshawa
Ottawa Centre
Ottawa South
Ottawa West--Nepean
Ottawa--Vanier
Oxford
Parkdale--High Park
Parry Sound--Muskoka
Perth--Wellington
Peterborough--Kawartha
Pickering--Uxbridge
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Richmond Hill
Sarnia--Lambton
Sault Ste. Marie
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough North
Scarborough Southwest
Scarborough--Agincourt
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park
Simcoe North
Simcoe--Grey
Spadina--Fort York
St. Catharines
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Sudbury

48%
13%
22%
42%
38%
40%
34%
35%
12%
24%
33%
18%
46%
3%
40%
39%
38%
29%
52%
27%
39%
24%
20%
20%
18%
21%
21%
18%
38%
39%
8%
38%
51%
14%

23%
24%
46%
28%
40%
36%
45%
18%
26%
50%
38%
44%
18%
41%
22%
29%
28%
45%
24%
47%
23%
30%
41%
37%
37%
53%
44%
43%
30%
27%
41%
29%
25%
28%

24%
60%
26%
24%
18%
19%
18%
42%
57%
22%
24%
32%
30%
52%
29%
26%
29%
20%
21%
22%
35%
43%
36%
40%
40%
23%
32%
36%
25%
26%
46%
28%
21%
55%

6%
4%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
5%
6%
4%
5%
6%
5%
4%
9%
6%
5%
6%
3%
5%
3%
3%
4%
2%
5%
3%
3%
3%
7%
8%
4%
5%
3%
4%

99.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0%
99.8%
0.2%
98.7%
1.2%
0.2%
38.4% 61.6%
0.0%
70.8% 29.2%
0.0%
5.0%
95.0%
0.0%
14.7%
0.0%
85.3%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
21.8% 77.7%
0.5%
0.0%
95.5%
4.5%
98.4%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
7.9%
92.1%
92.4%
0.5%
7.1%
89.1%
8.4%
2.5%
90.3%
4.5%
5.2%
2.2%
97.8%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
99.4%
0.1%
71.1%
0.2%
28.7%
0.5%
4.2%
95.3%
0.0%
76.6% 23.3%
0.0%
33.1% 66.9%
0.0%
37.6% 62.4%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
96.2%
3.7%
0.0%
84.1% 15.8%
84.7% 13.3%
2.0%
87.9%
8.1%
4.0%
0.0%
26.2% 73.8%
84.7% 10.2%
5.1%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Man.

Thornhill
47%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River
12%
Thunder Bay--Superior North
15%
Timmins--James Bay
17%
Toronto Centre
8%
Toronto--Danforth
1%
Toronto--St. Paul's
20%
University--Rosedale
7%
Vaughan--Woodbridge
40%
Waterloo
27%
Wellington--Halton Hills
50%
Whitby
42%
Willowdale
26%
Windsor West
19%
Windsor--Tecumseh
21%
York Centre
34%
York South--Weston
11%
York--Simcoe
48%
Brandon--Souris
49%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
40%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski
11%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa
50%
Elmwood--Transcona
29%
Kildonan--St. Paul
44%
Portage--Lisgar
62%
Provencher
56%
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital
32%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman
52%
Winnipeg Centre
9%
Winnipeg North
9%
Winnipeg South
34%
Winnipeg South Centre
23%
Battlefords--Lloydminster
49%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands
53%

33%
31%
26%
26%
47%
26%
48%
39%
41%
48%
25%
35%
48%
19%
21%
42%
41%
22%
24%
39%
39%
24%
26%
26%
25%
25%
52%
23%
33%
57%
53%
58%
23%
25%

16%
53%
55%
55%
40%
66%
27%
48%
15%
19%
17%
21%
24%
59%
54%
20%
44%
23%
20%
16%
47%
21%
40%
26%
6%
14%
11%
21%
49%
31%
10%
14%
25%
17%

4%
3%
4%
3%
4%
7%
5%
5%
3%
6%
8%
2%
1%
4%
4%
3%
4%
7%
7%
5%
4%
5%
4%
4%
7%
4%
4%
5%
9%
3%
3%
5%
4%
4%

95.9%
4.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
99.8%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0%
84.3% 15.7%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
10.5% 89.5%
46.4% 53.6%
0.0%
0.2%
99.8%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
79.7% 20.3%
0.0%
0.1%
99.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
12.7% 87.3%
0.0%
0.0%
32.1% 67.9%
99.9%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
51.7% 48.3%
0.0%
0.0%
11.6% 88.4%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
5.6%
1.6%
92.8%
99.1%
0.4%
0.5%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
99.5%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
98.6%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.6%
99.4%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
99.9%
0.1%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Sask.
Alb.

Desneth--Missinippi--Churchill River
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan
Prince Albert
Regina--Lewvan
Regina--Qu'Appelle
Regina--Wascana
Saskatoon--Grasswood
Saskatoon--University
Saskatoon West
Souris--Moose Mountain
Yorkton--Melville
Banff--Airdrie
Battle River--Crowfoot
Bow River
Calgary Centre
Calgary Confederation
Calgary Forest Lawn
Calgary Heritage
Calgary Midnapore
Calgary Nose Hill
Calgary Rocky Ridge
Calgary Shepard
Calgary Signal Hill
Calgary Skyview
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Griesbach
Edmonton Manning
Edmonton Mill Woods
Edmonton Riverbend
Edmonton Strathcona
Edmonton West
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin
Foothills

29%
51%
44%
45%
29%
39%
20%
35%
34%
27%
55%
52%
57%
69%
69%
41%
38%
49%
59%
60%
54%
53%
60%
50%
42%
27%
32%
37%
39%
39%
19%
44%
61%
65%

25%
24%
23%
23%
28%
24%
61%
26%
29%
23%
25%
26%
17%
11%
12%
28%
27%
26%
17%
16%
20%
22%
17%
24%
37%
35%
18%
22%
23%
26%
14%
24%
14%
13%

42%
21%
29%
28%
40%
33%
15%
34%
33%
46%
15%
19%
21%
18%
17%
23%
24%
22%
21%
20%
21%
20%
20%
19%
19%
37%
48%
40%
37%
33%
67%
31%
22%
19%

4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
2%
2%
8%
11%
3%
3%
4%
5%
5%
4%
7%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
2%
0%
1%
2%
3%

2.9%
0.2%
96.8%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
98.5%
0.2%
1.4%
99.4%
0.0%
0.6%
5.9%
5.5%
88.5%
75.5%
0.6%
23.9%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
53.3%
3.5%
43.2%
50.6% 12.0% 37.4%
0.8%
0.2%
99.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
97.8%
1.9%
0.2%
96.1%
2.9%
0.9%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
74.6% 25.4%
0.0%
3.6%
33.9% 62.5%
2.4%
0.0%
97.6%
37.5%
0.0%
62.5%
58.9%
0.1%
41.0%
79.1%
1.2%
19.7%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
94.7%
0.2%
5.1%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

BC

Fort McMurray--Cold Lake


Grande Prairie--Mackenzie
Lakeland
Lethbridge
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner
Peace River--Westlock
Red Deer--Lacombe
Red Deer--Mountain View
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan
St. Albert--Edmonton
Sturgeon River--Parkland
Yellowhead
Abbotsford
Burnaby North--Seymour
Burnaby South
Cariboo--Prince George
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola
Chilliwack--Hope
Cloverdale--Langley City
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam
Courtenay--Alberni
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford
Delta
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke
Fleetwood--Port Kells
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo
Kelowna--Lake Country
Kootenay--Columbia
Langley--Aldergrove
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon
Nanaimo--Ladysmith
New Westminster--Burnaby
North Island--Powell River
North Okanagan--Shuswap

58%
63%
64%
41%
55%
64%
63%
65%
50%
44%
63%
64%
54%
26%
23%
44%
41%
46%
39%
37%
29%
29%
29%
23%
29%
39%
45%
37%
48%
41%
26%
18%
30%
42%

19%
12%
14%
18%
20%
13%
12%
12%
21%
22%
14%
12%
20%
32%
27%
16%
21%
22%
28%
24%
20%
19%
34%
23%
31%
16%
23%
14%
25%
19%
20%
23%
20%
18%

21%
23%
19%
38%
22%
21%
22%
20%
26%
32%
21%
21%
21%
38%
45%
33%
28%
25%
27%
33%
43%
44%
30%
40%
35%
39%
23%
41%
21%
34%
46%
53%
44%
28%

2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
4%
6%
5%
5%
8%
9%
6%
6%
6%
8%
8%
6%
14%
4%
6%
10%
8%
7%
6%
8%
6%
6%
12%

100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
67.6%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
94.4%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
3.1%
0.1%
94.3%
97.4%
99.9%
92.1%
69.7%
2.6%
1.1%
19.0%
0.4%
14.5%
49.7%
99.9%
26.5%
99.9%
84.6%
0.2%
0.0%
2.7%
97.9%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
17.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.4%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
60.3%
0.5%
22.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
32.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
79.6%
99.7%
5.7%
2.5%
0.1%
3.6%
29.3%
97.4%
98.9%
20.7%
99.1%
62.9%
50.3%
0.0%
73.5%
0.0%
15.4%
99.8%
100.0%
97.3%
2.1%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

BC
Terr.

North Vancouver
29%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge
36%
Port Moody--Coquitlam
28%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
49%
Richmond Centre
39%
Saanich--Gulf Islands
22%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley
24%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay
31%
South Surrey--White Rock
35%
Steveston--Richmond East
35%
Surrey Centre
20%
Surrey--Newton
11%
Vancouver Centre
12%
Vancouver East
4%
Vancouver Granville
18%
Vancouver Kingsway
13%
Vancouver Quadra
22%
Vancouver South
25%
Victoria
8%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky27%
Country
Yukon
24%
Northwest Territories
22%
Nunavut
40%

46%
21%
24%
16%
34%
19%
14%
18%
36%
34%
33%
49%
44%
23%
45%
30%
56%
49%
23%
40%
41%
27%
37%

18%
37%
43%
28%
20%
12%
58%
42%
21%
25%
42%
36%
28%
64%
26%
52%
15%
23%
44%
23%
16%
47%
21%

7%
6%
6%
7%
6%
47%
4%
9%
8%
6%
5%
4%
17%
9%
11%
5%
7%
3%
25%
9%
19%
4%
3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the
federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats

1.5%
45.2%
2.4%
99.9%
76.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.5%
47.9%
55.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.2%

98.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
54.8%
0.0%
0.2%
97.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
23.9%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
92.5%
0.0%
51.8%
0.3%
0.0%
42.4%
2.0%
0.0%
9.3%
90.7%
0.0%
96.6%
3.4%
0.0%
99.3%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
99.7%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
100.0% 0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
99.8%
0.1%
95.3%
0.6%
0.0%