Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Comentarios
El riesgo clave de hoy viene representado por la publicación de los datos sobre Empleo No Agrícola (NFP) y la Tasa de Desempleo en EE.UU. Advertimos a nuestros
clientes de que el anuncio de ambas cifras puede traer consigo grandes sorpresas en el día de hoy (debido a las condiciones meteorológicas y a los cambios récord
en la Tasa de Población Activa del Mercado Laboral estadounidense en el mes de febrero).
Tanto el CHF como el JPY se han debilitado ligeramente y los diferenciales de crédito continúan estrechándose, si bien somos prudentes en el día de hoy debido a
la publicación de datos. Conviene estar atentos a una ruptura de la bajada en 1,4618 en el par EURCHF.
USDJPY 0/+ Comprar ruptura por encima de 89,35 para tantear 90,0. Por debajo de 88,80 diferir el repunte.
EURJPY 0/- Tope visto cerca de 121,40. Vender repuntes para tantear 120,80. Stop por encima de 121,85.
GBPUSD 0/- Se ha visto cómo el rebote pierde fuelle cerca de 1,5050. Vender ahí para 1,49. Stop por encima de 1,5110.
AUDUSD 0/- Puede pasar apuros a partir de 0,9030. Existe el riesgo de regresar hasta 0,8970 con posibilidad de 0,89.
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA anterior GPA prevista Comentario
(G(GMT)(GMT)
Informe Diario Mercados
2.5
120
100
1.5
1
80
0.5
60
0
-0.5
40
24-okt 24-dec 24-feb 24-apr 24-jun 24-aug 24-okt 24-dec 24-feb
06-03-2009 06-05-2009 06-07-2009 06-09-2009 06-11-2009 06-01-2010
US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the
inflation expectations. perceived default risk in a company. Now at 51.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
30 6
25 5
20 4
15 3
2
10
1
5
0
0
jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 apr-09 jul-09 okt-09 jan-10
02-08 04-08 06-08 08-08 10-08 12-08 02-09 04-09 06-09 08-09 10-09 12-09 02-10
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
PIIGS CDS 5 year CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
450 35
400
30
350
25
300
20
250
200 15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09 jan-10 feb-10
jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09 jan-10 feb-10
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
1
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