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NBC News/Marist Poll

September 2015
Iowa Questionnaire
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Iowa?
HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS

September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents:
n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered
voters: n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1012, MOE +/- 3.1%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as
president?
REGISTERED VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

September 2015
40
54
6
100
September 2015
40
52
7
100

July 2015
43
50
7
100
July 2015
43
49
8
100

February 2015
43
50
7
100
February 2015
43
49
8
100

September 2015
29
22
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
1
<1
<1
<1
<1

July 2015
17
8
12
1

February 2015
NA
6
16
NA
7
15
2
6
NA
17
9
NA
5
NA
4
NA
1
14

September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/5.0%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/5.3%; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=320, MOE +/5.5%
If the 2016 Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Carly Fiorina
Rand Paul
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Bobby Jindal
Mike Huckabee
Chris Christie
John Kasich
Rick Santorum
George Pataki
Rick Perry
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Undecided
Total

8
100

5
19
4
4
1
7
2
2
<1
<1
3
<1
1
14
100

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 1

100

September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate
Preference: n=328, MOE +/- 5.4%
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential
caucus in Iowa (including those who are undecided yet leaning
toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE WITH A
CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Jeb Bush
Carly Fiorina
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Bobby Jindal
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Chris Christie
Rick Santorum
George Pataki
Lindsey Graham
Jim Gilmore
Undecided
Total

September 2015
21
12
11
9
6
6
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
0
8
100

September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/5.5%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

September 2015
48
37
4
2
1
8
100

July 2015
55
26
4
2
1

September 2015
38
27
20
4
2
1
8
100

July 2015
49
25
10
3
1
<1
11
100

13
100

September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320, MOE +/5.5%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=321, MOE +/5.5%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President
Joe Biden enters the race):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 2

February 2015
68
7
12
<1
1
NA
12
100

September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129,
MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320,
MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents:
n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of
Hillary Clinton?
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

September 2015
67
27
6
100
September 2015
32
61
7
100
September 2015
33
60
8
100

July 2015
74
20
6
100
July 2015
37
56
7
100
July 2015
37
56
7
100

September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129,
MOE +/- 2.9%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Joe
Biden?
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

September 2015
74
17
10
100
September 2015
42
44
14
100
September 2015
41
42
17
100

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 3

September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/5.3%; Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%, Residents: n=1129,
MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=320,
MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents:
n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of
Bernie Sanders?
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129,
MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342,
MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents:n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Jeb
Bush?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129,
MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342,
MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents:n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of
Scott Walker?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

September 2015

July 2015

65
14
21
100
September 2015
36
29
35
100
September 2015
34
28
38
100

54
15
31
100
July 2015
30
27
44
100
July 2015
28
26
46
100

September 2015

July 2015

49
37
14
100
September 2015
36
48
16
100
September 2015

51
33
16
100
July 2015
34
46
20
100
July 2015

34
46
19
100

32
46
22
100

September 2015
52
17
31
100
September 2015
29
31
39
100
September 2015

July 2015
56
10
33
100
July 2015
30
31
39
100
July 2015

28
30
42
100

29
29
42
100

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 4

September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/5.0%, Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents: n=1129,
MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=342,
MOE +/- 5.3%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/- 3.2%;
Residents:n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of
Donald Trump?
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
Total

September 2015

July 2015

58
33
9
100
September 2015
36
55
9
100
September 2015

45
44
11
100
July 2015
32
60
8
100
July 2015
31

36
55
9
100

60
9
100

September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1% February
2015: Registered voters: n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you
support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Jeb Bush, the Republican
Undecided
Total

September 2015
39
50
11
100

September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you
support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Total
September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you
support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Joe Biden, the Democrat
Jeb Bush, the Republican
Undecided
Total

September 2015
43
48
9
100

September 2015
44
46
10
100

September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you
support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Joe Biden, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Total

September 2015
49
45
7
100

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 5

February 2015
48
40
12
100

September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=390, MOE +/5.0%; Potential Democratic Electorate: n=345, MOE +/- 5.3%;
Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; July 2015: Potential
Republican Electorate: n=342, MOE +/- 5.3%; Potential Democratic
Electorate: n=320, MOE +/- 5.5%; Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%
Are you are more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for
president who supports:
ISSUES
Common Core education standards
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total

September 2015
36
41
17
6
100
September 2015
53
19
22
6
100
September 2015
46
28
19
6
100

July 2015
42
46
4
8
100
July 2015
65
18
8
9
100
July 2015
56
29
8
7
100

A pathway to citizenship for undocumented or illegal
immigrants
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total

September 2015
30
53
12
5
100
September 2015
57
22
16
5
100
September 2015
41
40
15
4
100

July 2015
31
56
7
5
100
July 2015
62
26
8
4
100
July 2015
44
44
7
5
100

Amending the U.S. constitution to change birthright so
children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically
granted citizenship

POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
More Likely
Less Likely
No Difference to vote
Unsure
Total

September 2015
45
36
12
7
100
September 2015
20
59
17
5
100
September 2015
34
44
16
6
100

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 6

September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents:
n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered
voters: n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1012, MOE +/- 3.1%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Terry Branstad is doing as
governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

September 2015: Registered voters: n=998, MOE +/- 3.1%; Residents:
n=1129, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=919, MOE +/3.2%; Residents: n=1042, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered
voters: n=891, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1012, MOE +/- 3.1%
Are you male or female?
REGISTERED VOTERS
Male
Female
Total
RESIDENTS
Male
Female
Total

September 2015

July 2015

53
39
8
100
September 2015

50
45
5
100
July 2015

54
37
9
100

50
44
6
100

September 2015

July 2015

48
52
100
September 2015

49
51
100
July 2015

49
51
100

49
51
100

NBC News/Marist Poll: Iowa September 2015; Page 7

February 2015
65
29
6
100
February 2015
64
28
8
100

February 2015
48
52
100
February 2015
49
51
100