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Weekl

yEconomi
cIndi
cat
or
s
04 September 2015

St
at
i
st
i
csDepar
t
ment

Real Sector
Inflation, as measured by the change in the Colombo Consumers Price
Index (CCPI) (2006/07=100), which is compiled by the Department of
Census and Statistics, remained unchanged at -0.2 per cent in August
2015, as recorded in the previous month, on an year-on-year basis. Annual
average inflation declined to 1.0 per cent in August 2015 from 1.3 per
cent in July 2015. CCPI decreased by 0.5 per cent from July to August
2015.
Core inflation, which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy,
increased to 3.9 per cent in August 2015, from 3.5 per cent in July 2015
on an year-on-year basis. Annual average core inflation remained
unchanged at 2.8 per cent, for the third
consecutive month.

The economy grew by 6.0 per cent in real terms during the first quarter
of 2015, supported by 10.1 per cent growth of the Services activities and
2.9 per cent growth of the Agriculture related activities, while the
Industry activites contracted by 1.9 per cent in value added terms.

The FIPI increased by 13.2 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April


2015. This growth was mainly facilitated by increased production of
beverages, tobacco and wearing apparel sectors. They have recorded a
significant growth of 9.4, 21.9 and 38.1 per cent respectively during this
period. This was mainly attributed to increased domestic and
international demand.

During the week crude oil spot prices showed mixed performance. At the
beginning of the week prices rose due to a downward revision of U.S.
crude production data and OPEC's readiness to talk with other oil
producers about curbing output. U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA) reported U.S. pumped just below 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd)
in June, down by 1 million bpd from a revised May figure. Prices then fell
after China's official Purchasing Managers' Index drop to 49.7 in August
and U.S. manufacturing sector growth slowed to its weakest pace in more
than two years, reinforcing fears of slowing global growth and weaker
fuel demand. Prices were then mixed on rallying equities on Wall Street
and rise in U.S. crude inventories. U.S. stocks rose more than 1 per cent
as China's move to support its financial markets eased investor concerns
while EIA reported crude stockpiles rose by 4.7 million barrels last week.
Prices further rose on gains in Wall Street equities for a second straight
day and the European Central Bank's pledge to keep monetary policy
loose after weak inflation and growth forecasts.
Page 01

Highlights

Tea production during the first Six months of 2015 has declined
marginally by 0.6 per cent from 173.6 million kg to 172.6 million kg.
However, production of rubber during the first Six months of 2015
recorded a substantial decline of 17.4 per cent. Meanwhile, coconut
production during the first Six months of 2015 has increased by 4.4 per
cent.

1.1 Price Indices


August

Month

Year

2015

Ago

Ago

CCPI - Annual Average


7.5

(2006 / 07 = 100)
Colombo Consumers' Price Index (CCPI )
Annual Average Change %
Year - on - Year Change %

181.9

182.8

182.3

1.0

1.3

4.5

-0.2

-0.2

3.5

Core Inflation - ( CCPI )


Annual Average Change %
Year - on - Year Change %

180.0

178.9

173.2

2.8

2.8

3.2

3.9

3.5

3.9

2015
2014

6.5
5.5

Anual Average

Item

4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5

0.5
J

Jy

Month

1.2 Pettah Market


Average Wholesale Prices

Item

Week Ending
03rd Sep 2015

Week Ago

Average Retail Prices

Month

Year Ago

Ago

Annual Avg

Week Ending
03rd Sep
2015

Rs / Kg

Week

Month

Year Ago

Ago

Ago

Annual Avg

Rs / Kg

Rice
Samba
Kekulu (Red)
Vegetables
Beans
Cabbage
Carrots
Tomatoes
Pumpkins
Snake Gourd
Brinjals
Ash-Plantains

83.00
60.00

82.00
60.00

80.00
59.13

78.30
67.44

88.00
68.00

88.00
70.00

87.00
68.75

84.04
74.33

90.00

90.00

90.00

113.17

120.00

120.00

120.00

140.96

50.00

40.00

52.50

61.65

80.00

70.00

82.50

90.96

80.00

90.00

98.75

109.81

110.00

120.00

130.00

138.08

40.00

50.00

52.50

90.77

70.00

80.00

82.50

122.31

40.00

40.00

40.00

37.38

60.00

60.00

65.00

56.83

50.00

50.00

50.00

69.90

80.00

80.00

77.50

96.73

45.00

50.00

48.75

71.35

80.00

80.00

77.50

98.65

70.00

60.00

68.75

73.65

100.00

90.00

97.50

95.96
109.59

Other Foods
Red-Onions (Local)
Big-Onions (Local)
Potatoes (N'Eliya)
Dried Chilies (Imported)
Dhal (Indian)
Eggs (Red)
Coconut (Each)

80.00

85.00

85.62

79.55

100.00

100.00

115.00

85.00

100.00

103.13

75.42

120.00

120.00

125.00

99.07

107.50

97.50

108.88

104.64

130.00

120.00

131.25

127.69

245.00

245.00

240.00

193.24

270.00

280.00

277.50

230.38

165.00

166.00

167.25

140.94

180.00

186.00

181.50

159.23

15.50

15.50

15.63

12.04

16.00

16.00

16.25

12.57

36.50

36.50

36.25

38.63

50.00

50.00

49.50

50.10

Kelawalla
460.00
460.00
520.00
Balaya
280.00
280.00
267.50
Salaya
140.00
140.00
132.50
Paraw (Small)
580.00
550.00
532.50
* Prices collected from the Fisheries Trade Centre, Peliyagoda.

433.85

680.00

650.00

665.00

532.40

295.00

350.00

350.00

337.50

349.04

112.31

180.00

180.00

177.50

151.35

435.58

620.00

600.00

582.50

487.88

Fish*

page 02

Rice - Kekulu

90

D/1

D/5

N/1

S/1

O/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

D/1

Months

O/1

S/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

M/1

J/1

2014

Potatoes

160
130
100

2015
2014

70

J/1
J/4
F/3
M/2
A/1
A/4
M/3
J/2
Jy/1
Jy/4
A/3
S/2
O/1
O/4
N/3
D/2

40

Months

Kelawalla

Kelawalla

600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200

M/1

F/1

2015

D/5

N/1

Months

O/1

S/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

M/1

F/1

30

D/1

2015
2014

60
J/1

M/1

J/1

Rs./kg
Rs./kg

120

Months

Beans

480
430
380
330
280
230
180
130
80
30

190

150

Rs./kg

2015
2014

F/1

D/1

Potatoes

180

Rs./kg

700

2015
2014

625
550
475

2015
2014

400

J/1
J/4
F/3
M/2
A/1
A/4
M/3
J/2
Jy/1
Jy/4
A/3
S/2
O/1
O/4
N/3
D/2

325

J/1
J/4
F/3
M/2
A/1
A/4
M/3
J/2
Jy/1
Jy/4
A/3
S/2
O/1
O/4
N/3
D/2

Rs./kg

D/5

D/1

N/1

O/1

S/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

M/1

F/1

2014

J/1

Rs./kg

2015

Months

62
42

Beans
380
330
280
230
180
130
80
30

72
52

D/5

N/1

S/1

Months

O/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

F/1

M/1

2015
2014

82

N/1

Rs./kg

92

J/1

Rs./kg

Rice - Kekulu

92.00
82.00
72.00
62.00
52.00
42.00
32.00

Months

Months

1.3 Dambulla Market

1.4 Narahenpita Economic Centre


Week Ending 03

Item (Rs / Kg)

Wholesale
(Average)

rd

Average Retail Prices

Sep 2015

Item (Rs / Kg)

Retail (Average)

Rice

02nd Sep
2015

Week Ago

Rice

Samba
Kekulu (Red)

82.60

86.50

61.60

67.50

110.00

162.00

92.50

139.00

35.50

70.00

28.50

45.00

36.00

57.00

52.50

74.00

Vegetables

Samba
Kekulu (Red)

85.00

87.00

68.00

69.00

Beans
Cabbage
Carrots
Tomatoes
Pumpkings
Snake Gourd

160.00

137.00

120.00

120.00

160.00

153.00

100.00

90.00

80.00

80.00

80.00

80.00

Brinjals

100.00

87.00

Ash-Plantains

140.00

137.00

n.a.

n.a.

Vegetables

Beans
Carrot
Tomatoes
Pumpkins
Snake Gourd
Ash-Plantains
Other Foods
Red-Onions (Local)

75.50

103.00

Big-Onions (Local)

90.30

107.00 Other Foods

Potatoes (N'Eliya)
Dried Chilies(Imported)

101.50

115.00

244.10

265.50

34.70

43.10

Coconut (Each)

1.5 Maradagahamula Market


Average wholesale price of Rice
Item
(Rs / Kg)
Samba
Sudu Kekulu
Raw Red
Nadu

Week Ending

Week

Month

Year

04th Sep

Ago

Ago

Ago

77.30

76.52

76.99

75.74

55.50

55.92

55.33

69.11

56.72

57.40

56.87

67.25

56.60

56.52

55.72

70.82

Red-Onions (Imported)
Big-Onions (Imported)

n.a.

n.a.

Potatoes (Imported)

120.00

133.00

Dried Chilies (Imported)

253.00

250.00

Dhal (Indian)
Eggs (Red)(Each)

187.00

180.00

Coconut (Each)
Fish
Kelawalla
Balaya
Salaya
Paraw (Small)
Page 03

16.00

16.00

55.00

60.00

760.00

620.00

n.a.

n.a.

220.00

180.00

753.00

890.00

1.6 Wage rate Indices


2015(a)

2014

Apr

Apr

Change

Central Government Employees (b)

7,843.1

5,939.0

32.1

Workers in Wages Boards Trades


Agriculture
Industry & Commerce
Services

4,126.9

3,938.1

4.8

4,734.2

4,449.0

6.4

3,459.1

3,459.1

0.0

2,313.2

2,313.2

0.0

Item

6800
6400
6000
5600
5200
4800
4400
4000
3600
3200

(a) Provisional

Index Value

(1978 = 100)

Wage Indices (1978 = 100)

Central Govt.
Wages
Boards

Months

(b) Non-executive officers and minor employees

1.7 Factory Industry-Production (FIPI) ( 2010 = 100 ) (a)

Factory Industry- Production Index

2015 (b)

2014

April

April

Change

140

110.2

97.3

13.2

130

97.6

0.4

120

Food products
98.0
Beverages
124.3
Tobacco products
99.6
Wearing apparel
157.9
Chemicals and chemical products
71.6
Rubber and plastic products
97.3
Other non-metallic mineral products
87.1
(a) Major 7 sub divisions of FIPI out of 17 sub divisions.
(b) Provisional

113.5

9.4

81.7

21.9

114.4

38.1

69.6

2.8

97.4

-0.1

80.3

8.4

2015(a)

2014

Factory Industrial Production

Index

Item

110
100

2014

90

2015

80
J

Jy

Months

Item

Unit

Jan - Jun

Jan - Jun

Change

Tea

(Mn Kg)

172.6

173.6

-0.6

Rubber

(Mn Kg)

50.4

61.0

-17.4

(Mn Nuts)

1,488.8

1,425.7

4.4

Mn.kg.

1.8 Agriculture Production


Tea Production

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

2015
2014
J

Coconuts
(a) Provisional

J Jy Au S

Months

2014(a)

2014(a)

1st Quarter

1st Quarter

Annual

Agriculture

2.9

-0.4

-2.2

Industry

-1.9

-3.4

1.2

Services

10.1

2.9

6.5

GDP

6.0

0.7

4.5

Item

(a)Provisional

2015(a)

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

Page 04

Percentage Change

1.9 GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant (2010) Prices - Growth Rates in value added terms
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Real GDP

10' 10' 11' 11' 12' 12' 13' 13' 14' 14' 15'
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

Quater

1.10 Employment (a)


Item

2015 (b)

2014

2014

1st Quarter

1st Quarter

Annual

53.6

53.4

53.3

4.7

4.1

4.3

29.4

26.4

28.5

25.9

27.8

26.5

44.7

45.7

45.0

Labour Force Participation rate


Unemployment rate
Employed Persons by Sectors % (c)
Agriculture
Industry
Services
(a) The working age population aged 15 and above

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

(b) Provisional

(c) Based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) - Revision 4

Unemployment Rate

12

Crude Oil Prices

105

Index Value

125

5.3 5.2 6.2 5.7 5.4


5.9
4.5 4.2 3.9 4.6 4.1 4.5 4.7
5.3 5.0 4.9
4.1 4.4
5.1 5.2
4.3 3.9 4.03.9 4.44.1
4.2

6
4
2
0

Brent
WTI

85
65

Apr-15

Aug-15

Jan -15

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-14

Months

Apr-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-12

Jan-12

Year/Quarter

Oct-12

45
'1Q '3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q
08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 15

Apr-12

Rate

10

1.11 Average Crude Oil Prices


2014

2015

Spot Prices (US $/bbl)

Month

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

CPC Import

Brent

WTI

(Benchmark

(Benchmark

price)

price)

Prices (C&F)
(US$/bbl)(*)

Spot Prices (US $/bbl)


Brent

WTI

(Benchmark

(Benchmark

price)

price)

(US$/bbl)(*)

109.21

94.71

113.84

47.46

47.11

55.47

110.01

100.82

110.62

57.81

50.58

69.52

108.28

100.82

111.17

56.30

47.82

108.22

102.07

110.25

59.32

54.45

110.22

102.18

109.80

63.76

59.26

63.09

112.27

105.79

113.42

60.53

59.82

66.21

106.73

103.54

110.30

56.48

50.90

60.49

101.51

96.54

111.21

46.43

42.87

97.02

93.19

100.08

87.51

84.40

99.39

79.28

75.79

76.82

62.55

59.29

75.98

2014

28 August
31 August
01 September
02 September
03 September

CPC Import
Prices (C&F)

2015

100.61

96.44

47.67

45.29

48.51

49.20

101.10

48.50

45.38

99.91

92.37

47.37

46.30

100.58

95.50

49.86

46.75

Sources: Reuters
Energy Information Administration
Ceylon Petroleum Corporation
(*) CPC import prices are not directly comparable with spot prices of WTI and Brent as CPC is import prices include freight charges and the price is
weighted for average prices of different types of crude oil. Also Part of the imports of CPC are on a term contract basis.

Page 05

Monetary Sector
Weekly AWPR for the week ending 4 September 2015 increased by 5
basis points to 6.81 compared to the previous week.

The reserve money increased compared to the previous week mainly due
to increase in currency in circulation and the deposits held by the
commercial banks with central bank.

The total outstanding market liquidity increased to Rs. 51.10 bn by end of


the week, compared to Rs. 33.19bn by the end of last week.

By 04 September 2015, the All Share Price Index (ASPI) declined by 1.84
per cent to 7,215 points while the S&P SL 20 Index declined by 2.26 per
cent to 3,958 points, compared to the previous week.

page 06

Highlights

Broad money (M2b) expanded by 15.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis in


June 2015.
NFA of the banking system declined by Rs. 28.5 billion in June 2015.
NCG from the banking system showed an increase of Rs. 11.1 billion in
June 2015.
Credit extended to the private sector increased by Rs. 61.5 in June 2015.

2.1 Interest Rates


Week Ending

Item
Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR)
Treasury Bill Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax)
- 91 days
- 182 days
- 364 days
Standing Deposit Facility
Standing Lending Facility
Call Money Weekly Average (CMR)
Sri Lanka Inter Bank Offer Rate ( SLIBOR )
1 day
7 days
1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
12 Months
Commercial Banks
Saving Deposits One Year Fixed Deposits -

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR)


NSB
Saving Deposits One Year Fixed Deposits -

6.76

7.21

6.79

6.53

7.07

6.87

6.28

7.17

6.97

6.30

6.00

6.00

6.50

7.50

7.50

8.00

6.32

6.28

6.70

6.35

6.30

6.74

6.52

6.50

7.18

6.82

6.75

7.43

7.01

7.77

7.26

7.94

7.62

7.55

8.15

June 2015

Month Ago

Year Ago

0.50-8.00

0.50-8.00

1.25-8.00

3.50-15.00

3.50-15.00

4.75-14.50

August 2015

Month Ago

Year Ago

6.01

6.00

7.02

7.23

7.21

8.44

July 2015

Month Ago

Year Ago

11.17

11.25

13.53

June 2015

Month Ago

Year Ago

5.00

5.00

5.00

6.50

6.50

7.50

(8 Years)

(9 Y 11 Months )

(10 years)

25/08/15

25/08/15

04/08/15

11.20

11.00

11.00

9.76

9.97

9.63

Coupon rate
Weighted Average Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax)
2015 Sep 04

6.81

7.11

Treasury Bonds Auction

Week ending

Year Ago

7.36

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR)


Commercial Bank Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR)

Bankwise- AWPR

Week Ago

2015 Sep 04

Bankwise- AWPR

Week Ago

Week ending
2015 Sep 04

Week Ago

Bank of Ceylon

7.26

7.45

HSBC

6.46

6.47

People's Bank

8.50

8.50

Standard Chartered Bank

6.92

6.43

Hatton National Bank

6.85

7.10

Citi Bank

7.35

6.90

Commercial Bank of Ceylon

6.65

6.53

Deutsche Bank

6.64

7.46

Sampath Bank

7.26

7.37

Habib Bank

5.82

6.00

Seylan Bank

7.19

7.31

Indian Bank

8.32

8.41

Union Bank of Colombo

7.76

7.06

Indian Overseas Bank

8.91

8.91

Pan Asia Banking Corporation

7.50

7.50

MCB Bank

6.89

7.14

Nations Trust Bank

6.45

6.54

State Bank of India

8.32

8.37

DFCC Vardhana Bank

7.76

7.98

Public Bank

8.14

8.14

NDB Bank

7.32

7.30

ICICI Bank

8.44

8.53

Amana Bank

8.32

8.23

Axis Bank

Cargills Bank

7.48

7.50

Page 07

2.2 Money Supply


Rs. Bn.

Item
M1
M2
M2b
Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (b)
Monetary Authorities
Domestic Banking Units (DBUs)
Foreign currency Banking Units (FCBUs)
Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (b)
DBUs
FCBUs
Net Credit to Government
Monetary Authorities
DBUs
FCBUs
Credit to Corporations
DBUs
FCBUs
Credit to the Private Sector
DBUs
FCBUs
Reserve Money
(a) Provisional (b) In relation to M2b

Percentage

Percentage

20
15
10
5
J

Jy

Month

Year

2015 (a)

Month

Year

June

Ago

Ago

June

Ago

Ago

629.4

630.8

519.2

21.2

25.2

16.9

3,677.5

3,641.3

3,214.3

14.4

14.5

13.0

4,141.1

4,102.8

3,592.8

15.3

15.4

13.3

-205.5

-177.0

163.6

-225.6

-211.2

196.8

538.6

550.5

706.9

-23.8

-17.6

93.2

-249.1

-234.6

-212.7

-17.1

-15.1

-23.4

-495.0

-492.8

-330.6

-49.7

-61.7

8.8

4,346.6

4,279.7

3,429.3

26.8

26.0

2.7

3,686.8

3,618.7

2,967.6

24.2

22.1

3.2

659.8

661.0

461.7

42.9

52.7

-0.4

1,673.8

1,662.7

1,377.4

21.5

20.9

9.0

186.7

201.5

142.8

30.8

37.8

-38.8

1,208.8

1,191.2

1,031.5

17.2

15.3

16.8

278.3

270.0

203.1

37.0

37.9

38.0

482.6

496.9

349.2

38.2

50.4

4.5

202.4

202.5

151.6

33.5

39.2

38.6

280.3

294.4

197.6

41.8

59.3

-12.2

2,963.2

2,908.2

2,481.7

19.4

17.6

2.0

2,722.0

2,660.6

2,266.0

20.1

17.1

1.1

241.1

247.6

215.8

11.7

22.3

13.2

608.0

589.8

507.7

19.8

18.1

1.5

20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10

2014
2015

2014
2015

15

13

11
J

Months

Money Supply - M2b


17

Percentage

2014
2015

25

2015 (a)

Money Supply - M2

Money Supply - M1

30

Annual Change (%)

J Jy A

Months

M A

J Jy A

Months

2.3 Weekly change in Reserve Money

1,716

Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.)


Gross Volume (Rs. Mn)

6.29

6.31

6.31

6.34

6.34

11,760

12,065

14,558

12,480

17,060

6.32

6.34

6.40

6.50

6.50

17,018

5,752

12,056

8,820

10,261

2.5 CBSL Security Portfolio


Item
CBSL T-Bill Holding (Rs. Mn)

31.08.2014 01.09.2015 02.09.2015 03.09.2015 04.09.2015


91,941

129,057

118,412
Page 08

122,102

123,817

450

Months

D/2

Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.)


Gross Volume (Rs. Mn)
Repo Market

2014
2015

500

O/4

Call Money Market

550

A/1

31.08.2014 01.09.2015 02.09.2015 03.09.2015 04.09.2015

600

S/3

Item

650

J/4

2.4 Money Market Activity (Overnight)

Weekly change in
Reserve Money

M/2

637,957

700

Rs.Bn.

639,673

Change

M/5

Reserve Money (Rs.Mn.)

Week Ago

J/1

2015

F/3

03 Sep

Item

2.6 Open Market Operations


Item

31.08.2014 01.09.2015

02.09.2015

03.09.2015

04.09.2015

Short-Term Auction
Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Reverse Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn)

0.00

15.00

0.00

10.00

0.00

Tenure (No. of Days)

Bids Received (Rs. bn)

0.00

13.03

0.00

9.31

0.00

Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)


Weighted Average Yield Rate (% p.a.)

0.00
0.00

12.03
6.25

0.00
0.00

5.03
6.30

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

Standing Deposit Facility (Rs. bn)

25.27

48.77

43.85

50.98

51.10

Standing Lending Facility (Rs. bn)

0.00

0.00

1.38

0.00

0.00

25.27

36.74

42.47

45.94

51.10

Term Auction
Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)
Reverse Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)

Standing Facility

Total Outstanding Market Liquidity (Rs. bn)

2.7 Credit Cards (a)


Item

2015 (b)

2015

2014

End April

End March

End Dec

Total Number of Active Cards

1,065,369

1,065,664

1,032,833

32,178

32,311

32,874

1,033,191

1,033,353

999,959

57,773

56,327

57,621

Local (accepted only locally)


Global (accepted globally)
Outstanding balance (Rs. Mn.)
Local (accepted only locally)
Global (accepted globally)
(a) Issued by Licensed Commercial Banks

1,234
56,387

Commercial Paper Issues


60

2015

2015

2014

End Apr(b)

End Mar

End Dec

2.8

1.6

8.2

Outstanding (as at end of the period )

4.5

3.6

3.5

(a) Based on the information provided by Licensed Commercial Banks and

Rs.Bn

50

Total Issues - Cummulative

Licensed Specialised Banks

1,223
55,103

(b) Provisional

2.8 Commercial Paper Issues (a)


Item ( Rs. bn.)

1,217
56,556

2014
2015

40
30
20
10
0

(b) provisional

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D
Month

2.9 Share Market


Week Ending
04 Sep 2015

Item

Week Ago

Year Ago

All Share Price Index (1985 = 100) (ASPI)

7,215

7,351

7,061

S & P Sri Lanka 20 Index (S&P SL20)

3,958

4,049

3,903

604

1,939

1,217

3,065

3,123

2,964

Average Daily Turnover (Rs. Mn)


Market Capitalisation (Rs.Bn.)

8000

Share Market - Month End

Index

7000
6000

ASPI
S&P

5000
4000
3000
2000

Months

Page 09

Fiscal Sector
During the first quarter of 2015, total revenue as a percentage of
estimated GDP remained unchanged at 2.5 per cent as in the corresponding
period of 2014. However, in nominal terms, total revenue increased by 16.4
per cent to Rs. 285.6 billion during the first quarter of the year from Rs.
245.2 billion recorded during the same period in 2014 reflecting increases
in both tax revenue (by Rs. 30.0 billion) non tax revenue (by Rs. 10.5
billion). However, average monthly revenue during this period was around
Rs. 95.2 billion compared to the estimate of Rs. 125.4 billion in the Budget.

Total outstanding debt increased by Rs. 267.2 billion to Rs. 7,658.1 billion
as at end March 2015 from Rs. 7,390.9 billion at end 2014. Foreign debt
decreased by Rs. 43.7 billion to Rs. 3,069.4 billion mainly due the
repayment of International Sovereign Bond amounting to US dollars 500
million. Meanwhile, domestic debt increased by Rs. 311.0 billion to Rs.
4,588.7 billion.

Special Commodity Levy (SCL) was revised from time to time during the
year, providing necessary protection for domestic agricultural producers
while reducing volatility in commodity prices in the domestic market.
Accordingly, SCL on several essential goods was revised during the months
of March 2015. Accordingly, SCL on mackerel was reduced to Rs. 6 per kg
from Rs. 10 per kg with effect from 18 March 2015. Meanwhile, SCL on
rice was increased to Rs. 40 per kg from Rs. 20 per kg.

page 10

Highlights

Total expenditure and net lending as a percentage of estimated GDP


declined to 4.5 per cent during the first quarter of 2015 compared to 5.7
per cent recorded in the corresponding period in 2014 mainly due to
decline in capital expenditure and net lending. The recurrent expenditure
as a percentage of estimated GDP declined to 3.6 per cent from 4.1 per
cent in the corresponding period of 2014. However, capital expenditure and
net lending as a percentage of GDP considerably declined to 0.9 per cent
during the first quarter of 2015 compared to 1.6 per cent in the same
period of 2014.

3.1 Government Finance (Rs.bn)


2015 Q1

Item

2014 Q1

(a)

Revenue and Grants


Revenue
Tax
Non tax
Grants
Expenditure & Lending Minus Repayments
Current
Capital & Lending Minus Repayments

Government Revenue &


Expenditure 2013-2014

Rs.Bn

2000

285.6

245.9

285.6

245.2 1500

257.7

227.7

27.9
0.0

17.5
0.7

507.3

553.9

410.9

399.5

96.4

154.5

(a) Provisional

Revenue
Expenditure

1000
500
0
13 Q3

13 Q4

14 Q3

14 Q4

3.2 Government Debt (Rs.bn)


End March

Item

End 2014

2015 (a)

Total domestic debt


of which
Treasury bills
Treasury bonds
Rupee loans

4,588.7

4,277.8

Rs.Bn

5,000.00

Government Debt
2014

Domestic
Foreign

4,000.00

793.8

Total foreign debt


Total outstanding govt. debt

2013-

694.8 3,000.00

2,933.9

2,844.1

55.5

55.5

3,069.4

3,113.1

7,658.1

7,390.9

2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00

14 Q1

14 Q2

14 Q3

14 Q4

(a)Provisional

3.3 Government Securities - Primary and Secondary Market Yield Rates as for the week ending 02nd September 2015
Primary Market(a)
Security

Treasury Bills

Treasury Bonds

Maturity

Secondary Market
This Week
Selling Average

Last Week

This Week

Last Week

3 Months

6.79%

6.53%

6.69%

6.40%

6.55%

6.32%

6 Months

7.07%

6.87%

6.77%

6.62%

6.70%

6.52%

12 Months

7.17%

6.97%

6.91%

6.75%

6.83%

6.61%

2 < Years

7.09%

6.93%

7.01%

6.90%

5 < Years

9.35%

8.97%

8.79%

8.88%

8.68%

6 < Years

9.71%

9.38%

9.22%

9.30%

9.02%

8 < Years

9.76%

9.85%

9.69%

9.77%

9.48%

10.34%

9.97%

9.87%

9.72%

9.80%

9.69%

15 < Years

9.98%

9.80%

9.89%

9.72%

20 < Years

10.11%

9.90%

10.00%

9.95%

30 < Years

10.81%

10.46%

10.64%

10.61%

10 < Years(b)

(a) Primary market transactions during the week ending 02/09/2015

Buying

Average

(b) Rounded to the closest maturity

The secondary market yield rates of T-bills and T-bonds adjusted upward during the week compared against yield rates of the
previous week.
Treasury Bonds

Treasury Bills
6.75%

12.00%

6.50%

10.00%

6.25%
6.00%

Current
Year Ago

Yield

Yield

11.00%
9.00%
8.00%

7.00%
6.00%

Page 11

Current
Year Ago

3.4 Government Securities - Weekly Summary of Primary and Secondary Market Transactions
(Week Ended - 02nd September 2015 )
Volume in Rs Mn

Item

This Week

Last Week

Outstanding Stock of Government Securities


Treasury Bills

841,925.89

815,247.47

3,484,794.75

3,502,473.13

4,326,720.64

4,317,720.60

Government Securities held by Foreigners

350,656.32

375,406.70

Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDB)

579,703.07

578,623.83

Treasury Bonds (a)


Total

Outstanding stock of T-bills increased during the week with new issuances.
Volume in Rs Mn

Primary Market Activities

This Week

Last Week

Treasury Bills
Amount Offered

12,000.00

18,000.00

Total Bids Received

30,247.00

38,569.00

3,916.00

17,344.00

Total Bids Accepted


Treasury Bonds
Amount Offered

30,000.00

40,000.00

Total Bids Received

79,395.00

127,176.00

Total Bids Accepted

31,318.00

30,582.00

T-bill auction was substantially oversubscribed during the week as the preference for government securities continued.
Volume in Rs Mn

Secondary Market Activities

This Week

Treasury Bills
Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases)
Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases)
Treasury Bonds
Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases)
Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases)

Last Week

30,798.28

23,041.09

241,641.28

236,293.56

86,530.09

38,034.91

763,808.87

734,538.68

Increased activities were observed in secondary market transactions during the week.
a) Excludes Treasury bonds amounting to Rs.4,397 million issued to CWE in November 2003, Rs. 78,441 million issued to settle dues to
CPC in January 2012,Rs. 13,125 million issued to capitalize Sri Lankan Airlines in March 2013.

3.5 Two way Quotes (Treasury Bills) - 04/09/2015


Remaining Maturity

Average Buying
Price

Yield %

Average Selling
Price

Yield %

Buying & Selling


Spread

1-7 Days

99.88

6.33

99.88

6.12

0.00

1 Month

99.47

6.50

99.48

6.32

0.02

2 Month

98.91

6.61

98.94

6.43

0.03

3 Month

98.32

6.81

98.39

6.52

0.07

4 Month

97.76

6.82

97.81

6.67

0.05

5 Month

97.17

6.89

97.23

6.73

0.07

6 Month

96.60

6.91

96.69

6.73

0.09

7 Month

95.98

7.00

96.08

6.84

0.10

8 Month

95.40

7.02

95.51

6.85

0.11

9 Month

94.82

7.03

94.94

6.86

0.12

10 Month

94.21

7.06

94.37

6.87

0.16

11 Month

93.61

7.08

93.77

6.91

0.16

12 Month

93.01

7.11

93.18

6.94

0.17

page 12

3.6 Two way Quotes (Treasury Bonds)- 04/09/2015


Treasury Bond
By Series

Maturity
Period
(Years)

Maturity Date

Days to

Average

(DD/MM/YY)

Maturity

Buying Price

20-Sep-15
1-Nov-15
1-Apr-16
1-Jun-16
1-Aug-16
1-Sep-16
1-Oct-16
1-Jan-17
15-Jan-17
1-Mar-17
15-May-17
15-Jun-17
15-Jul-17
1-Feb-18
1-Apr-18
1-Jun-18
15-Jul-18
15-Aug-18
15-Oct-18
15-Nov-18
15-Jan-19
1-May-19
1-Jul-19
15-Sep-19
1-Nov-19
1-May-20
1-Jun-20
1-Aug-20
1-May-21
15-Oct-21
1-Aug-21
1-Jan-22
1-Jul-22
1-Oct-22
1-Sep-23
1-Sep-23
1-Oct-23
1-Jan-24
1-Dec-24
15-Mar-25
1-May-25
1-Aug-25
1-Feb-26
1-Mar-26
1-Jun-26
1-May-28
1-Jul-28
1-Jan-29
1-May-29
15-May-30
1-Jan-32
1-Oct-32
1-Jun-33
1-Jul-33
1-Nov-33

16
58
210
271
332
363
393
485
499
544
619
650
680
881
940
1,001
1,045
1,076
1,137
1,168
1,229
1,335
1,396
1,472
1,519
1,701
1,732
1,793
2,066
2,233
2,158
2,311
2,492
2,584
2,919
2,919
2,949
3,041
3,376
3,480
3,527
3,619
3,803
3,831
3,923
4,623
4,684
4,868
4,988
5,367
5,963
6,237
6,480
6,510
6,633

100.24
100.25
100.12
100.77
99.49
100.82
99.36
100.72
98.11
101.00
101.35
100.69
96.71
101.10
100.53
99.97
100.75
97.59
101.46
99.24
91.65
100.18
105.29
106.34
97.90
100.17
96.39
89.31
98.01
102.08
106.22
93.36
106.96
101.14
94.93
107.04
84.70
107.35
77.33
101.13
94.68
105.17
93.65
69.91
106.80
93.00
92.58
121.00
121.46
106.45
82.77
89.37
90.16
124.42
89.58

6.55
6.69
7.01
6.90
6.99
7.12
7.02
7.41
7.28
7.53
7.87
7.57
7.72
7.99
8.26
8.50
8.19
8.44
8.21
8.27
8.56
8.43
8.93
8.70
8.61
9.20
8.95
8.94
9.46
9.00
9.59
9.41
9.77
9.77
9.93
9.90
9.78
10.07
9.78
10.06
9.86
10.16
9.99
10.06
9.95
9.98
10.04
10.09
10.07
10.14
10.18
10.34
10.21
10.24
10.28

100.25
100.28
100.24
100.89
99.66
100.99
99.50
101.01
98.37
101.26
101.79
101.02
97.03
101.49
100.92
100.40
101.12
98.00
101.71
99.49
92.09
100.75
106.09
107.06
98.44
101.07
97.56
89.80
98.41
102.56
106.94
94.32
107.94
102.16
95.48
107.72
85.27
108.28
77.87
102.05
95.62
106.30
94.80
70.64
107.94
94.29
93.87
123.38
123.23
108.11
84.21
91.52
91.97
126.75
91.41

6.44
6.54
6.80
6.72
6.78
6.95
6.88
7.18
7.07
7.34
7.59
7.37
7.54
7.80
8.09
8.32
8.05
8.28
8.11
8.18
8.40
8.25
8.68
8.49
8.45
8.96
8.63
8.80
9.36
8.89
9.44
9.20
9.58
9.57
9.83
9.78
9.67
9.91
9.67
9.91
9.71
9.98
9.81
9.92
9.78
9.79
9.85
9.81
9.86
9.94
9.98
10.05
9.97
10.00
10.03

0.01
0.02
0.12
0.13
0.17
0.17
0.14
0.29
0.26
0.26
0.44
0.32
0.31
0.39
0.39
0.44
0.37
0.42
0.26
0.25
0.45
0.56
0.80
0.72
0.54
0.90
1.17
0.49
0.40
0.48
0.72
0.96
0.98
1.02
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.94
0.54
0.92
0.95
1.13
1.15
0.73
1.14
1.29
1.29
2.38
1.77
1.66
1.44
2.15
1.81
2.33
1.84

Yield %

Average
Selling Price

Yield %

Buying & Selling


Spread

12.50%2015A
08.50%2015A
07.25%2016A
08.00%2016B
06.40%2016A
08.00%2016A
06.40%2016B
08.00%2017A
05.80%2017A
08.25%2017A
08.75%2017A
08.00%2017B
05.80%2017B
08.50%2018A
08.50%2018C
08.50%2018D
08.50%2018B
07.50%2018A
08.75%2018A
08.00%2018A
05.65%2019A
08.50%2019A
10.60%2019A
10.60%2019B
08.00%2019A
09.25%2020A
08.00%2020A
06.20%2020A
09.00%2021A
09.45%2021A
11.00%2021A
08.00%2022A
11.20%2022A
10.00%2022A
09.00%2023A
11.20%2023A
07.00%2023A
11.40%2024A
06.00%2024A
10.25%2025A
09.00%2025A
11.00%2025A
09.00%2026A
05.35%2026A
11.00%2026A
09.00%2028B
09.00%2028A
13.00%2029A
13.00%2029B
11.00%2030A
08.00%2032A
09.00%2032A
09.00%2033A
13.25%2033A
09.00%2033B

2
3
6
4
6
5
6
5
6
3
4
5
6
15
5
5
15
15
4
6
8
10
5
5
8
5
8
10
8
7
7
10
9
8
10
9
20
10
10
10
12
10
13
15
11
15
15
15
15
15
20
20
20
20
20

13.25%2034A

20

1-Jan-34

6,694

123.61

10.35

126.42

10.06

2.82

11.50%2035A

20

15-Mar-35

7,132

107.90

10.54

110.91

10.20

3.01

09.00%2043A

30

1-Jun-43

10,132

85.11

10.68

87.72

10.35

2.61

13.50%2044A

30

1-Jan-44

10,346

122.81

10.88

127.22

10.48

4.41

13.50%2044B
12.50%2045A

30
30

1-Jun-44
1-Mar-45

10,498
10,771

123.14
109.48

10.86
11.38

127.09
115.10

10.49
10.79

3.95
5.63

page 13

External Sector
During the year so far (up to 04 September 2015) the rupee depreciated
against the US dollar (2.75 per cent). Given the cross currency exchange
rate movements, the Sri Lanka rupee appreciated against the euro (6.31
per cent) and the Indian rupee (1.50 per cent) and depreciated against
the pound sterling (0.68 per cent) and the Japanese yen (2.56 per cent)
during this period.
On cumulative basis, exports earnings during the first six months of 2015
recorded a decline of 0.6 per cent, year-on-year, to US dollars 5,415
million. The decline was led by agricultural exports and mineral exports .
On a cumulative basis, during the first six months of 2015, expenditure
on imports increased by 5.7 per cent, year-on-year, to US dollars 9,501
million mainly led by consumer goods imports followed by investment
goods imports.

India, China, UK, Germany and France were the top five sources of tourist
arrivals in August 2015, accounting for 50 per cent of total tourist
arrivals upto the month of August 2015.
The average price of tea increased marginally to US dollars 2.97 per kg in
June 2015 from US dollars 2.96 per kg in May 2015 it declined from US
dollars 3.58 per kg in June 2014.
Further, the import prices of sugar, wheat and crude oil prices declined
compared to the corresponding month of 2014.

page 14

Highlights

As import prices declined substantially offsetting the decline in export


prices, the terms of trade improved substantially in June 2015.
Export price index decreased by 3.1 per cent, year-on-year, to 105.3
index points, reflecting price declines in all sub sector in exports.
Meanwhile, the import price index declined by 8.1 per cent, year-on-year,
to 99.6 index points due to the decline in price level of intermediate
categories of imports.

4.1 Exchange Rates


Week Ending - 04 Sep 2015

Year
Ago

136.47

134.82

130.18

212.42

208.04

207.89

214.23

1.11

1.17

1.14

1.11

1.24

148.27

155.32

151.80

151.59

171.05

2.04

2.03

2.15

188.97

189.10

197.14

July
2015

Month
Ago

Year
Ago

0.00

15.00

250.00

352.58

506.97

10.00

(US$ Mn. )

Purchases
Sales

STG

160

US$

120

Jy

80
O

( As at 03 Sep 2015 )

200

Months

138.85

J/15

134.08
203.66

Central Bank purchases and sales(b)

Month End

240

J/14

Week
Ago

Average
Rate

INR(1)
SDR

Selling
Rate

Jy

US$
STG
Yen
Euro

Buying
Rate

J/13

(Rs Per Unit)(a)

Average Rate

Rate

Item

Week Ending
04 sep 2015

Week
Ago

Year
Ago

29.05

33.33

32.15

Average Daily Interbank Volume (US$ Mn.)


(spot, tom and cash transactions among commercial banks)
Forward Transactions
(2)

Forward Rates (US$)


1 Month
3 Months
Average Daily Interbank Forward Volume (US$ mn)
Outstanding Forward Volume (US$ mn)
( As at 03 Sep 2015 )

135.14

134.81

130.57

136.29

135.84

131.24

30.80

22.60

17.15

1,360.62

1,311.96

1,181.18

(a) Commercial Bank Avg. Middle Rate (prevailing at 9.30a.m.)


(b) Central Bank purchases and sales of foreign exchange from commercial banks at market rates total for the Month
(1) Central Bank indicative rate (2) Weekly average based on actual transactions.

4.2 Tourism & Workers' Remittances


Item
Tourist Arrivals

Number

Earnings from Tourism

US$ Mn.
Rs.bn.

Workers' Remittances (Inflows)

US$ Mn.
Rs. bn.

2014
Aug (a)

2015
Aug (b)(c)

2014
Jan-Aug (a)

2015(b)
Jan-Aug (c)

% Change

140,319

166,610

1,001,643

1,172,465

17.1

223.4
29.1

265.2
35.5

1,594.5
208.1

1,866.50

17.1
19.4

2014

2015

2014

July

July (b)

Jan-Jul

248.4

2015

Jan-

Jul(a)

% Change

606.7
599.3
3,966.6
4,032.0
1.6
79.0
80.1
517.8
536.5
3.6
(b) Provisional (c ) May be revised based on Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority survey results on average

(a) Revised

stay period and average spending per day estimates for 2015

US$ Mn

No of arrivals '000

Tourist Arrivals
170
150
130
110
90
70
50

2014
2015
J

Jy

Month

800
700
600
500
400
300
200

Workers' Remittances - Inflows

2014
2015
J

Page 15

J Jy A

Month

4.4 Official Reserve Assets as at 31st August 2015(a)


Official Reserve Assets (USD Mn)

6,466.72

(1)
Foreign currency reserves
(2) Reserve position in the IMF
(3) SDRs
(4) Gold
(5) Other reserve assets
(a) Provisional

5,578.95
67.20
11.80
807.80
0.97

4.5 International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity as at 31 st July 2015

(a)

Official Reserve Assets (USD mn)


Official Reserve Assets

6,808.55

(1) Foreign currency reserves


(a) Securities
(b) Total currency and deposits with
(i) other national central banks, BIS
(ii) banks headquartered inside the reporting country of which located abroad
(iii) banks headquartered outside the reporting country
(2) Reserve position in the IMF
(3) SDRs
(4) Gold
(5) Other reserve assets

5,957.69
3,133.12
2,824.57
2,563.70
1.04
259.83
66.74
9.04
774.1
0.97

Predetermined Short-Term Net Drains on Foreign Currency Assets (b)


Maturity breakdown (residual maturity)
Item

Total

Up to 1 month

More than 1

More than 3

and up to 3

months and up to

months

1 year

1. Foreign currency loans, securities, and deposits


outflows ()
inflows (+)

Principal
Interest
Principal
Interest

-3,245.94

-373.90

-594.07

-2,277.97

-1,099.43

-33.47

-176.56

-889.40

-2,459.58

-623.15

-647.43

-1,189.00

-0.23

-0.23

-0.23

-0.23

2. Aggregate short and long positions in forwards and


futures in foreign currencies vis--vis the domestic
currency (including the forward leg of currency swaps)
(a) Short positions ()(c)
(b) Long positions (+)
3. Other (specify)
inflows related to reverse repos (+)
other accounts payable ()
(a) Provisional
(b) This mainly includes only the predetermined outflows

(c) A major share of SWAP outstanding will be rolled over. This mainly includes SWAP arrangements with state banks which
mobilised long-term foreign finance from international bond issuances

Page 16

4.6 External Trade


US$ Bn

Item

Jan-Jun

Jan-Jun

2015

2014

Exports

Jan-Jun

2015

2014

-0.6

719.8

711.7

1.1

1.4

-8.3

165.5

177.2

-6.6

4.1

4.0

2.6

551.0

527.7

4.4

0.1

0.1

-7.4

17.7

18.8

-5.7

2.4

2.4

-0.3

319.7

315.1

1.5

0.2

0.2

21.6

29.8

24.1

23.6

0.5

0.5

-6.5

62.4

65.6

-4.8

0.9

0.8

14.5

121.4

104.2

16.5

0.0

0.0

-61.4

2.3

5.9

-60.7

0.0

0.0

14.4

1.1

0.9

16.4

9.5

9.0

5.7

1,262.8

1,173.4

7.6

2.3

1.6

44.3

306.7

208.8

46.8

4.9

5.6

-11.7

652.2

726.0

-10.2

2.3

1.8

25.1

302.6

237.8

27.3

0.0

0.0

54.6

1.3

0.8

57.4

-4.1

-3.5

15.6

-543.0

-461.7

17.6

TRADE INDICES

Terms
(2010=100)

of Trade

128

Tea Prices(Auction)

550

10000

500

Jy

6000
4000

2014
2015

2000

Months

0
J

Jy

Months

108
88

2014
2015

68

450

Rs./Kg.

Index Value

8000

2014
2015

% Change

5.4

Exports

12000

US$ Mn

US$ Mn

Imports

22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0

Jan-Jun

1.2

Consumer Goods
Intermediate Goods
Investment Goods
Other
Trade Balance

% Change

5.4

Agricultural
Industrial
Food, Beverages and Tobacco
Textiles and Apparel
Petroleum Products
Leather, Rubber etc
Other
Mineral
Other
Imports

Rs Bn

400

2014
2015

350
300
J

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Jy

Months

Months

Rice prices(Imported)

4.7 Trade Indices (2010= 100 ) (a)


Month

Year

Jun (b)

Ago

Ago

Rs./Kg.

Item

110

2015

Total Exports
Value
Quantity
Unit Value

131.4

122.8

137.2

124.7

148.3

126.1

105.3

82.8

108.8

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

Crude Oil (Imported)

(a)In US$ Terms

141.9

128.8

146.7

138.0

118.8

99.6

102.9

108.5

105.7

80.5

100.3

(b) Provisional

16

Rs'000./Barrel.

Terms of Trade

146.2

2014
2015

70
50

Total Imports
Value
Quantity
Unit Value

90

13

2014
2015

10
7
J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

4.8 International Commodity Prices


Item

Jun
2015

Jun
2014

Colombo Auction Price


Tea Prices

White Sugar
Wheat

Jun
2015

US$ / Kg
2.97

Imports (C I F)
Rice

% Change

3.58

% Change

Rs / Kg
-17.1

397.15

US$ / MT

466.00

-14.8

Rs / MT

535.70

492.89

8.7

71,727.60

64,217.62

11.7

401.16

510.38

-21.4

53,713.03

66,496.68

-19.2

314.90

-12.5

36,886.25

41,027.47

-10.1

275.49

US$ / Barrel
Crude Oil

Jun
2014

66.21
Page 17

113.42

Rs / Barrel
-41.6

8,865.32

14,777.37

-40.0