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Problem A

x

P(x)

To get "C"

1 or 2 must be

0.05469

0.16410

0.2188

3

4

0.27340

0.27340

0.5468

5

6

7

0.16410

0.05470

0.00780

0.2266

Grade

To get "C"

1 or 2 must

be

guessed

correctly.

Problem B

x

P(x)

0.31150

0.31150

0.6230

3

4

0.17300

0.05770

0.2307

5

6

7

0.01150

0.00130

0.00006

0.0129

Answers

1. A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of

a) No fives turning up?

(b) Here, x = 1.

(c) Here, x = 3.

2. This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does

not). Let X = number who recover.

Here, n = 6 and x = 4. Let p = 0.25 (success - i.e. they live), q = 0.75 (failure, i.e. they die).

The probability that 4 will recover:

We could calculate all the probabilities involved and we would get:

It means that out of the 6 patients chosen, the probability that none of them will recover is 0.17798, the probability

that one will recover is 0.35596, and the probability that all 6 will recover is extremely small.

SNB "Histogram"

Alternatively, we can use Scientific Notebook's "Plot Approximate Integral" to give us something approaching the

histogram of this experiment. Of course, the x-values are not quite right in the SNB answer (because it was not

designed to do this), so I have made an adjustment to the x-axis.

Probability of 7 successes in 10 attempts:

Histogram

Using the following function in SNB,

we have:

4. A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is

the probability of

Here, n = 4, p = 0.8, q = 0.2. Let X = number of hits.

(a)

5. A multiple choice test contains 20 questions. Each question has five choices for the correct answer. Only one of

the choices is correct. What is the probability of making an 80 with random guessing?

(In this case, "success" means rejection!) Here, n = 10, p = 0.12, q = 0.88.

(a)

No rejects

One reject

Two rejects

(b) We could work out all the cases for X = 2, 3, 4, ..., 10, but it is much easier to proceed as follows:

Histogram

Using SNB , we can define the function

matrices to find the values at 0, 1, 2, ... which gives us the histogram:

8. This is a binomial experiment in which the number of trials is equal to 5, the number of successes is equal to 2,

and the probability of success on a single trial is 1/6 or about 0.167. Therefore, the binomial probability is: b(2; 5,

0.167) = 5C2 * (0.167)2 * (0.833)3

b(2; 5, 0.167) = 0.161

9. Find the mean, for the number of sixes that appear when rolling 30 dice.

Success = "a six is rolled on a single die". p = 1/6, q = 5/6.

10.

11. np = 20(1/5) = 4

12.

(c) 20C20 (.08)20(.92)0 = .0000000000000000000001 (note -22 means move the decimal 22 places to the left)

13. Probability that it will work (0 defective components) 55C0 (.002)0 (.998)55 = .896

Probability that it will not work perfectly is 1 - .896 = .104 or 10.4%

14. 35C4 (.01)4 (.99)31 = .00038

16. Probability that it will work (0 defective components) 100C0 (.005)0 (.995)100 = .606

Probability that it will not work perfectly is 1 - .606 = .394 or 39.40%

17.

The probability of getting a boy is

Let X = number of boys in the family. Here, n = 6, p = 0.5215,

q = 1 0.52153 = 0.4785

http://www.intmath.com/Counting-probability/12_Binomial-probability-distributions.php

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Solution to Problems

1. A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of

(a) No fives turning up?

(b) 1 five?

(c) 3 fives?

This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 possible outcomes (we get a 5 or we don't).

Now, n = 3 for each part. Let X = number of fives appearing.

(a) Here, x = 0.

(b) Here, x = 1.

(c) Here, x = 3.

Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of

6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?

This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does not).

Let X = number who recover.

Here, n = 6 and x = 4. Let p = 0.25 (success - i.e. they live), q = 0.75 (failure, i.e. they die).

The probability that 4 will recover:

We could calculate all the probabilities involved and we would get:

It means that out of the 6 patients chosen, the probability that none of them will recover is 0.17798, the probability

that one will recover is 0.35596, and the probability that all 6 will recover is extremely small.

SNB "Histogram"

Alternatively, we can use Scientific Notebook's "Plot Approximate Integral" to give us something approaching the

histogram of this experiment. Of course, the x-values are not quite right in the SNB answer (because it was not

designed to do this), so I have made an adjustment to the x-axis.

n the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt to make a telephone call.

Calculate the probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts.

Probability of success p = 0.8, so q = 0.2.

X = success in getting through.

Probability of 7 successes in 10 attempts:

Histogram

Using the following function in SNB,

we have:

A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the

probability of

(a) more than 2 hits?

(b) at least 3 misses

Here, n = 4, p = 0.8, q = 0.2.

Let X = number of hits.

Let x0 = no hits, x1 = 1 hit, x2 = 2 hits, etc.

(a)

5. A multiple choice test contains 20 questions. Each question has five choices for the correct answer. Only one of

the choices is correct. What is the probability of making an 80 with random guessing?

What proportion of Singapore families with exactly 6 children will have at least 3 boys? (Ignore the probability of

multiple births.)

[Interesting and disturbing trivia: In most countries the ratio of boys to girls is about 1.04:1, but in China it is

1.15:1.]

Here,

n = 6,

p = 0.5215,

q = 1 0.52153 = 0.4785

7. A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his pistons are rejected because they are either

oversize or undersize. What is the probability that a batch of 10 pistons will contain

(a) no more than 2 rejects? (b) at least 2 rejects?

Let X = number of rejected pistons

(In this case, "success" means rejection!)

Here, n = 10, p = 0.12, q = 0.88.

(a)

No rejects

One reject

Two rejects

(b) We could work out all the cases for X = 2, 3, 4, ..., 10, but it is much easier to proceed as follows:

Histogram

Using SNB , we can define the function

matrices to find the values at 0, 1, 2, ... which gives us the histogram:

Suppose a die is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 2 fours?

Solution: This is a binomial experiment in which the number of trials is equal to 5, the number of successes is equal

to 2, and the probability of success on a single trial is 1/6 or about 0.167. Therefore, the binomial probability is:

b(2; 5, 0.167) = 0.161

Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the number of sixes that appear when rolling 30 dice.

Success = "a six is rolled on a single die". p = 1/6, q = 5/6.

The mean is 30 * (1/6) = 5. The variance is 30 * (1/6) * (5/6) = 25/6. The standard deviation is the square root of

the variance = 2.041241452 (approx)

(c) 20C20 (.08)20(.92)0 = .0000000000000000000001 (note -22 means move the decimal 22 places to the left)

(2) 30C3 (.04)3 (.96)27 = .0863

(3) Probability that it will work (0 defective components) 55C0 (.002)0 (.998)55 = .896

Probability that it will not work perfectly is 1 - .896 = .104 or 10.4%

(4) 35C4 (.01)4 (.99)31 = .00038

(5) 50C2 (.007)2 (.993)48 = .0428

(6) Probability that it will work (0 defective components) 100C0 (.005)0 (.995)100 = .606

Probability that it will not work perfectly is 1 - .606 = .394 or 39.40%

http://www.intmath.com/Counting-probability/12_Binomial-probability-distributions.php

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