STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR MULTY-PATH TRIP ASSIGNMENT WITH CONSIDERING DIVERGE PERCEIVED TRAVEL COST

R Didin Kusdian SAPPK-ITBDoctoral Program Graduated Lecturer of Universitas Sangga Buana-YPKP Jl. PH. Mustopa 68 Bandung-Indonesia e-mail : kusdian@yahoo.com Prof. Ir. Ofyar Z. Tamin, MSc.,PhD. Post Graduate Program Institute Technology of Bandung (ITB) Jl Tamansari 64 Bandung - Indonesia e-mail: ofyar@trans.si.itb.ac.id

Prof. Dr. Ir. Agus Salim Ridwan, MSc Transportation Post Graduate Program School of Architecture Planning and Policy Development (SAPPK)-ITB Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung- Indonesia

Ir. Ade Syafruddin, MSc., PhD. Transportation Laboratory Civil Engineering Study Program ITB Labtek I 2nd Floor Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung- Indonesia e-mail: ades@trans.si.itb.ac.id

Abstract New idea added in this research and have been considered inside perceived cost diverge modelling, that was perceived cost also influenced with the distance of journey. More long the distance more wide the uncertainty distribution of travel perceived cost. To model this phenomenon the travel perceived cost generated not only by using single distribution function as an approach effort, this reserach use three distribution with gradual dispersion parameter. This idea derived and aplicated in hypotetical road network assignment analysis. Experiment result showed that with assumed that there are four segment of travel cost perception for all origin-destination pair in the network will appear diverge chosen route which could be different with one best route as the result of the assumption that there is no diverge perception among the traveller about the travel cost of all pair of origin-destination inside the network. Keywords : diverge travel perceived cost, normal distribution, distance base distribution, route choice pattern.

1. Introduction Transport demand is lean to increase, this happened in Indonesia, especially at urban area. Transport will be necessity for more people, in compliance with population and vehicle amount growth. In urban area transport intensity relatively higher in compare with in rural area which lower in population density.

Urban transport study need modelling to predict movement. The movement wahat is meant in this case are people movement and/or fright movement. With use vehicle on the movement lane from origin to destination. At any time interval the movement that have been predicted will take place at once on each links inside the network. In that time interval the movement that happen on each link can be expressed with link’s volume. On planning work in the context of future time it traffic volume determined from estimation result that use modeling including traffic assignment model. This traffic volume estimating is very useful for transport network system planning and traffic management. 1

Planning has the nature of anticipating toward any possibility that can be happen in future, in the short time horizon, middle time horizon and long time horizon. Research development about route choice modeling has the important role in transport modeling for use in effective and efficient transport system planning. Urban transport system study need the arrangement of calculating procedure for analyze the relation among transport demand and transport system supply. From the demand side will necessary the estimation of movement amount and it spatial distribution pattern, this can be derived from perception behavior distribution. Supply side is including physical properties and spatial distribution of transport network especially in surface transport network for example highway, road and street network. The study should be done in that both side simultaneously.

As a detail part of modeling and calculating procedure in demand-supply study of transport its should be include travel cost modeling. Travel cost strongly influence by each travelers perception. It will need particular study to derive travel cost formula, which can be used for system base transport demand-supply study. Travel cost formulation study will be better if including with perception factor that actually occur in reality. 2. Route Choice Stochastic Model In ‘all-or-nothing’ route choice approach, travelers rationally choose shortest route, which minimize transport impedance (distance, time, and cost). All travelers between origin and destination zone use one same route following the assumption that travelers know it fastest route. In another word, travelers know about shortest route which minimizing travel time and all of them use it route, no one use another route. All-or-nothing assignment result only one route assigned with traffic flow, for each origin-destination pair (Tamin, 2000). Route choice could be modelled with considering stochastic effect, that there are perception diverge possibility among travellers. Monte Carlo simulation technic can represent driver perception diverge about travel cost (travel time) for each links, as the development effort of Burrel Model. Basically, the development of Burrel Model is starting with try to treat differently beetween objective and perception cost. Objective cost is the cost from observer or modeller view or determined by them, and than treated as mean value of perception cost which distributed among travellers. So perceived cost behaviour can be drawn with use probability distribution function (Ortuzar, 1994; Tamin, 2000).

3. Route Choice Stochastic Model Development Route choice model which considering travel cost diverge can be derived with use distribution function for generate perceived cost values from objective cost value that treated as mean value of perceived costs. The form of distribution can be adapted according the prior observation of perception data or follow some assumption, for example use uniform distribution or normal distribution (Kusdian et al., 2005) Each traveller is possible has any different way in their view about travel cost between origin and destination. Among this diverge, then be grouped become N segments, where inside one 2

segment be assumed have same perception, while among segments are different. This segment formation will usefull for analysis purpose in estimating traffic load amounts which use each links inside the network. Additional consideration which became the specific characterictic of this research is that perception diverge pattern which drawn by distribution function as perception distribution model, influence by travel distance. Shorter travel distance cost will easier to predict for more people and more people will use these short travel distance. The longer travel distance the more dificult to predict it distance or travel cost, so among peoples there is prediction diverge. This prediction diverge can appear cause of perception diverge. The longer travel distance the more spread perception diverge about travel cost. This distance base perception diverge than modelled so that it possible to be numerically analyzed. The technic used in this case is modelled it in probability distribution fuctions with dispersion gradation. Dispersion coded as percentage from mean value, spread to the left and right from it, so than distribution is drawn. Mean value of perceive travel cost is objective travel cost value or travel cost value (of link or route) in modeller view. Link objective travel cost is counted with add fuel cost, travel time cost, and toll cost. For not link cost, toll cost is zero. Travel time cost is travel time multiply by travel time value, where travel time value is some factor for converse time to cost unit or money. In this research travel time value approached with work time value of auto user who became the survey respondent, that is average income per month divide by work time per month.

For the analysis of route choice inside the network, travel cost between each origindestination pair is counted by adding all passed links cost, where in numerical process it done with limiting passed links amount. Shortest path choice process is executed with use Dijksta algorithm (Bell and Iida, 1997). Application of travel cost perception diverge reality was proceed by means of perception diverge about links traverse cost. Links inside the network divided in to three groups: short, middle and far or long. Perception diverge is drawn from objective cost and dispersion parameters in percentage of objective cost.

In this case the objective cost is assumed as the mean value of perceived cost, where the perceived cost is distributed person perception cost about each links. First, for the group of short distance links, dispersion parameter is zero, this mean that travelers have the same perception about travel cost of these links. Second, for the middle distance links, dispersion parameter treat as 15% from objective value, and third for the long distance group of links dispersion parameter is 30% from objective value. Distribution function that used in this research is normal distribution. Each perception distribution divided to be four segments of perceptions each segment will have different perceived cost. Chosen route inside network searched by travel cost minimizing for each origin zone to all destination zone. Counting cycle of route searching behave for each perception segments.

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Figure 1 Distance Base Perceived Cost Distribution Model Figure 2 will describe the mapping of previous and recent model, in order to explain the unique of the model discussed in this paper. Route Choice and Trip Assignment Model Without consider capacity constrain With consider capacity constrain

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Single distribution perceived links cost All –or nothing Burrell’s Model

Multi distribution perceived links cost

The distribution function parameter of link perceived cost are depend on link cost value

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Model Algorithm

Furthermore stochastic route choice development concept could be implemented in the following algorithm: 1. From one origin zone to all destination zone inside the network: determine travel cost for each links, than determine the cheapest travel cost for each origin-destination pairs with assumed that travel cost perception are same (approached with same links travel cost for all peoples, there is no perception distribution) 2. Divide the travel distance from origin zone to all destination zone inside the network to be three groups, those are short distances, middle distances and long distances with the method as follows: find shortest distance or cheapest cost; find longest distance or most expensive cost; determine the interval between shortest and longest then divide it to be same three parts. Determine the limit or boundary between middle distance group and long distance group, that is the upper limit of short distance group add again with one part of interval. With the result that there are three condition: 1. If travel cost more than or equal with shortest travel cost and less than shortest travel cost add by one part of interval, then it travel will grouped inside short travel group. The distance or cost of this group is easy to predict for all people, the perception of all people about it distance of cost are tend to be the same and no perception distribution. 2. If travel cost more than or equal with shortest or cheapest travel cost add by one part of interval and less than shortest or cheapest travel cost add by two part of interval, then these travel will treated as middle group travel. Prediction of travel cost and cheapest cost among traveler can be difficult. For this group perception diverge pattern is assumed be follow a distribution function with a dispersion parameter which less than for long travel cost group. For example the dispersion parameter is 15% from mean value and drawn by normal distribution. 3. If travel cost more than or equal with cheapest travel cost add by two part of interval and less than longest or most expensive cost, then these travel will grouped into long or expensive travel group. For this group, perception toward travel cost assumed be follow and can be drawn by normal distribution with more spread dispersion than two groups before. Consistently according to the concept explained above that the longer travel the more wide spread of perception diverge. In this research for long travel group used dispersion parameter of 30% from mean value. To gererate perceived travel cost perception distribution from mean value of perceived travel cost which known as objective cost, can be done by use standard normal distribution (with mean value equal to zero μ = 1 and standard deviation equal to one σ = 1). It can be applicated with use box-muller transformation as describe by formula (1). (Kusdian et.al., 2005). s = ((−2 ln( R1 ))1 / 2 . cos 2πR2 (1)

With R1 and R2 are two random number from uniformly distribution random number in interval (0,1), and s is sample obtained or desired from standard normal distribution. 5

Further more the result of this transformation formula s can be used for take random sample c from a normal distributed of random variable C with mean value c and certain standard deviation ( σ = pc ), by formula (2).
c =σ ⋅s +c

(2)

In the usage of standard normal distribution for generate travel perceived cost, with use 4 segments of perception division, cost value of each perception segment can be generated pass through normal random number for first segment until fourth segment in succession: s ≤ −1 , − 1 < s ≤ 0 , 0 < s ≤ 1 , and s > 1. Each with traffic load portion: 15.87%, 33.47%, 33.47% and 15.87 % respectively. 5. Model Experiments The first stage of model implementation is to code the algorithm into computer program, this research use the coding with FORTRAN language. Further stage is testing the program of stochastic route choice with travel distance consideration perception distribution model, to determine route choice pattern in hypothetical network as shown in Figure 2. This networks contents of 13 nodes, 18 links and 4 zones.

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4 Figure 3 Road Networks Geometric Data The cost of each links, in this case the basic cost is distance in kilometers, are as included in Figure 3. 6

6. Experiment Results and Analysis Firstly, model run with assummed same travel cost perception for all traveller in viewing all links inside the network without considering the diverge of link distances, with use Dijkstra algorithm, the result is as shown in Figure 4. Secondly, model run wirh 4 segments perception division in this stochastic route choice development, where perceive travel cost is generated with diverge distribution for different group of link distance (short, middle, and long), while for determine the cheapest or shortest path is used the same Dijkstra algorithm, it is obtained 4 route pattern for each travel from one origin zone to all destination zone ( In first model run that assummed same perception travel cost there is only 1 route pattern for each travel from one origin zone to all destination zone). The route choice pattern as the results of experiment with stochastic route choice with considering travel distance are shown in Figure 5,6,7 and 8.
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a. Tree from Zone 1 to Zone 2,3 and 4 Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing)

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b. Tree from Zone 2 to Zone 1,3 and 4 Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing)

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d. Tree from Zone 4 to Zone 1,2 and 3 Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing)

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Figure 4 Chosen Route Pattern From Each Zone To All Zones For Same Perception of Travel Costs ( all-or-nothing)

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1st Perception Segment From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4
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Figure 5 Trees From Zone 1 to Zones 2, 3 and 4 Travel Cost Perception Distribution With Considering Travel Distances Model

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Figure 6 Trees From Zone 2 To Zones 1, 3 and 4 Travel Cost Perception Distribution With Considering Travel Distances Model

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Figure 7 Trees From Zone 3 To Zones 1, 2 and 4 Travel Cost Perception Distribution With Considering Travel Distances Model

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Figure 8 Trees From Zone 4 To Zones 1, 2 and 3 Travel Cost Perception Distribution With Considering Travel Distances Model

All-Or-Nothing Assignment If the assignment process uses the assumption same perceived travel cost among traveler then for each origin zone to all destination zones there is only one cost perception and only one chosen route for each origin-destination pairs. Assignment of 4 Segments Normal Distribution By approach travel cost perception to became 4 segments of perception which each segment has the event probability as equal to the area under standard normal distribution curve, with the boundary value of perceived cost generator (from standard normal distribution curve) s , as described in part 5 above. Load portion of each segment is event probability value of each segment multiply by transport demand amount for each origin-destination pairs. Analysis of Model Experiment Results For comparison analysis purpose, this research have done too the experiment for stochastic route choice model without considering travel distance diverge, that is with only one distribution for all length of travel. The distribution function have been used is uniform distribution and normal distribution, each with given two dispersion parameters, those are 15% and 30% from mean value.

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Perceived travel cost modeling with use normal distribution with dispersion parameter of 15% and 30% of mean value produced result the same minimum cost route tree pattern for calculating experiment with 4 segments division in hypothetic network. But it was different with chosen route pattern, which resulted by without travel cost perception distribution model (all-or-nothing). While if use the assumption that travel cost perception is following uniform distribution model with dispersion parameter of 15% and 30% from mean value. The route choice pattern is different with all-or-nothing model result that is in minimum cost route tree for firstsegment from zone-3. The experiment result of model with considering the travel cost perception diverge which influenced by travel distance, chosen route pattern in hypothetical network for first-segment is the same with normal distributed perceived cost, while chosen route pattern for secondsegment from all zone, third-segment from all zone, and fourth-segment from all zone-1,2 and 3 are different compared with chosen route pattern of normal distributed model, uniform distributed model and all-or-nothing (non distributed) model. For fourth-segment chosen route is the same with normal distributed model result.

7. Conclusions From experiment results and it analysis it can be resumed the conclusions as follows: 1. The analysis effort of predicting the route choice pattern of vehicle movements on the network, will be closer to the reality if it consider the actuality of travel cost perception diverge among the traveler. 2. Travel cost perception diverge among traveler can be analyzed by add the consideration that the perception diverge is following different distribution pattern according to travel distances. 3. The experiment results have shown that with assumed there are 4 segments of travel cost perception, it will appear different chosen routes if compare with chosen route that result from same travel cost perception assumption. 4. The consideration that there are travel cost perception diverge among traveler will make possible that the model can closer in approach the reality of traveler route choice process on the network system, according to the human nature which are not always have same perception about something, and in this case is travel cost. References 1. Bell,M.G.H. dan Iida,Y., (1997), Transportation Network Analysis, John Wiley & Sons. 2. Kusdian,R.D., Tamin, O.Z., Ridwan, A.S., dan Sjafruddin, A., (2005) : Penggunaan Distribusi Normal Dalam Memodelkan Persepsi Biaya Perjalanan, Prosiding Simposium VIII Forum Studi Transportasi Antar Perguruan Tinggi (FSTPT), Univeritas Sriwijaya, Palembang. (In Bahasa Indonesia) 3. Ortuzar, J.D. dan Willumsen, L.G. (1994): Modeling Transport, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., England. 4. Tamin, O.Z.(2000) : Perencanaan dan Pemodelan Transportasi, edisi 2, Penerbit ITB, Bandung. (In Bahasa Indonesia)

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