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UOP Capital Investment Presentation

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Capital Investment

Evaluation

EDS 2004/CI-1

Hello and good morning! My name is Joe Weiszmann and I am from the Solutions

and Services Department of UOP. My specialization is the front-end conceptual

design and optimization of refinery and petrochemical complexes. I often evaluate

the economics and profitability of new refinery projects and of refinery revamps or

upgrading projects as part of my work at UOP.

This training class is about capital investment evaluation. For the next three hours, I

would like to tell you about how to evaluate and select capital projects using the

appropriate capital investment evaluation tools.

Outline

Investment Evaluation Tools

Net Present Value (NPV)

Breakeven analysis

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Project Ranking

Simple payout

Mutually exclusive projects

Sensitivity analysis

Present value ratio

Examples

Class Problems

EDS 2004/CI-2

We will go through the concept of the time value of money. Next, we will go

through the three most common investment evaluation tools: net present value,

breakeven analysis and internal rate of return.

I will show you which is the correct tool to use for evaluating capital projects.

There are several different techniques used for evaluating capital projects, including

simple payout, mutually exclusive projects, sensitivity analysis, and present value

ratio. We will talk about all of these this morning.

We will then go through a cash flow analysis and work out some examples. We

will finish the class with doing some class and homework problems.

Income, $

Investment

or Cost, $

Year

50

100

100

50

50

50

50

EDS 2004/CI-3

The time line concept entails organizing the income and investment (or cost) of a

particular project over a selected period of time to be analyzed in terms of the

income received and cost incurred during each individual period of time.

Income, $

50

50

50

50

50

- Cost, $

-100

-100

Cash Flow

-100

-50

50

50

50

50

Year

EDS 2004/CI-4

By subtracting the cost from the income, you get the net cash flow for each period

of time. In other words, the cash flow is typically the profit that you make after you

subtract your cost and expenses from the income or revenues.

Gross revenue or savings

- Operating costs

- Tax costs

- Capital costs

= Cash flow

EDS 2004/CI-5

A more detailed description or definition of cash flow is the money remaining after

you subtract all the operating costs (both variable and fixed), tax costs (everyone

pays some kind of tax?), and capital costs (e.g. for plant, equipment, buildings, etc.,

which are typically amortized via depreciation) from the gross revenues or savings,

i.e. from the revenue received or the savings achieved.

Putting Money to Work

three years

years

EDS 2004/CI-6

Heres an example of the time value of money. Lets invest $100 M in Bank A and

$100 M in Bank B. Bank A pays 20% simple interest at the end of three years,

while Bank B pays 10% compound interest for three straight years. It is just an

example of the time value of money.

Bank A

100*1.2=

-$100

Year

$120

EDS 2004/CI-7

In Bank A, after 3 years, the $100 investment turns into $120 based on using a

simple interest rate of 20%.

Bank B

Year

100*1.1=

110*1.1=

121*1.1=

-$100

$110

$121

$133

EDS 2004/CI-8

In Bank B, we apply a compound interest rate. This interest rate is different from

the simple one in that it is compounded each and every year.

The interest rate is applied to the investment every year, as long as the money is

kept invested or deposited in the bank.

The value of your $100 with compound interest is calculated using the formula

shown here. After three years, your $100 becomes $133.

Investment Evaluation

Investment evaluation will show us if

an investment gives us a good return

on our money.

EDS 2004/CI-9

The next section will introduce the three most common methods of investment

evaluation: net present value, breakeven analysis, and internal rate of return.

Cost of Capital

The Cost of Capital (or money) is the rate of

return that could be realized on similar

alternative investments of equivalent risk.

which we compare all our investments.

EDS 2004/CI-10

The cost of capital is an important principle that underlies all investment evaluation

work.

What else could we be doing with our money (that would involve only the same

amount of risk)?

10

Breakeven Analysis

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

EDS 2004/CI-11

Lets now look at the three most common investment evaluation tools:

Breakeven Analysis, and IRR.

NPV,

11

Net Present Value is the total value of a project,

revenues minus costs, brought backward to the

first year at a specified rate of interest per year.

EDS 2004/CI-12

12

(continued)

NPV = Cj / (1 + i) j

where 0 < j < n

j

Cj

I

n

=

=

=

=

Cash flow in the time period j

Interest rate ( = cost of capital)

Number of time periods, years

EDS 2004/CI-13

The NPV of a project is the summation of all the discounted cash flows over all of

the time periods to be evaluated.

13

(continued)

The interest rate is 12%.

How much do I have to invest in year 1?

EDS 2004/CI-14

14

(continued)

Income, $

2000

- Cost, $

NPV

Cash Flow

-NPV

2000

Year

NPV = $1135 (to be invested at the beginning of the year)

EDS 2004/CI-15

15

(continued)

Income, $

2000

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

-X

2000

Year

-X + 2000 / (1+0.12)5 = 0

X = $1135

This is also called the Breakeven Price

EDS 2004/CI-16

The breakeven price is based on determining the initial investment required @ 12%

to obtain @ $2000 at the end of five years.

If you had to invest more than $1135, you would be losing money; if you had to

invest less than $1135, you would be gaining money. However, if you had to invest

exactly $1135, then you would be breaking even. Hence, $1135 is called the

breakeven price in this example.

16

Income, $

50

40

30

20

- Cost, $

100

Cash Flow

-100

50

40

30

20

Year

15%? What is the Breakeven Investment cost?

EDS 2004/CI-17

Here is another example of calculating NPV that I suggest you try working on

(without turning over just yet).

17

NPV = Cj / (1 + i) j

NPV = -100 / (1+0.15)0 +

50 / (1+0.15)1 +

40 / (1+0.15)2 +

30 / (1+0.15)3 +

20 / (1+0.15)4

NPV = -100 + 43 + 30 + 20 + 11

NPV = $4

EDS 2004/CI-18

Please go through the calculation and make sure you could do it yourself.

18

$4 at a 15% rate of interest. This means I make

15% interest on my $100 investment over a 4 year

period, plus $4 extra. The interest rate on this

investment is, therefore, greater than 15% per year.

EDS 2004/CI-19

This project is attractive if the cost of capital is 15% (or less). The net present value

of the project is calculated to be plus $4 at a 15% rate of interest.

19

Breakeven Analysis

Breakeven analysis is determining the value of

any parameter which allows a specified rate of

return to be achieved from an investment.

The parameter may be the initial investment

cost, project lifetime, annual revenue, selling

price of a product, or % utilization of plant.

EDS 2004/CI-20

Breakeven analysis can be applied to lots of other parameters, for example the plant

throughput required to just breakeven. See above for other examples of the

parameters that can be studied as part of a breakeven analysis of a project.

20

Income, $

50

40

30

20

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

-X

50

40

30

20

Year

+ 30 / (1+.15)3 + 20 / (1+.15)4

0 = -X + 43 + 30 + 20 + 11

X = $104

EDS 2004/CI-21

In the breakeven analysis above, we want to find out what our maximum investment

cost should be to just meet our accepted 15% rate of return. This is calculated as

shown above with the NPV set equal to zero.

21

could invest up to $104. This is then the Breakeven

Investment Cost for this particular project. Any

additional cost would lower the Rate of Return to

less than 15% which would not be acceptable.

EDS 2004/CI-22

22

Income, $

50

40

30

20

- Cost, $

100

Cash Flow

-100

50

40

30

20

Year

+ 30 / (1+ .20)3 + 20 / (1+ .20)4

= -100 + 42 + 28 + 17 + 10

= - $3

The IRR is between 15% and 20%.

EDS 2004/CI-23

Heres an example that calculates the project NPV at a cost of capital of 20%. The

NPV for this project is now minus $3.

This means that the discount rate used is now too high for this project. You are

asking for too much return from this investment.

The rate of return is thus somewhere between 15% and 20%.

23

EDS 2004/CI-24

Lets now talk about internal rate or return or IRR as it is routinely called.

24

(continued)

0 = Cj / (1 + r) j

where 0 < j < n

j

Cj

r

n

=

=

=

=

Cash flow in time period j

Internal Rate of Return unknown

Number of periods, usually years

The projects IRR is the value of r that gives

an answer of zero NPV.

EDS 2004/CI-25

This is the formula for calculating the internal rate of return (IRR) of a project. The

calculation is normally an iterative process, even for a computer.

25

0

Income, $

100

100

120

140

- Cost, $

-200

-150

Cash Flow

-200

-50

100

120

140

Year

at r = 15%

- 200/(1+.15)0 - 50/(1+ .15)1 + 100/(1+ .15)2

+ 120/(1+ .15)3 + 140/(1+ .15)4

- 200 - 43 + 76 + 79 + 80 = - $8

at r = 10%

- 200/(1+.10)0 - 50/(1+ .10)1 + 100/(1+ .10)2

+ 120/(1+ .10)3 + 140/(1+ .10)4

- 200 - 45 + 83 + 90 + 96 = + $24

EDS 2004/CI-26

Here is an example the calculates an IRR of a project. As you can see, it is trial and

error approach.

26

following project?

Income, $

30

40

50

- Cost, $

100

Cash Flow

-100

30

40

50

Year

EDS 2004/CI-27

Here is another example for you to work on (without turning over just yet).

27

Calculation

at r = 15%

-100/(1+.15) + 30/(1+.15)1 + 40/(1+.15)2 + 50/(1+.15)3

-100 + 26 + 30 + 33 = - $11

at r = 10%

-100/(1+.10) + 30/(1+.10)1 + 40/(1+.10)2 + 50/(1+.10)3

-100 + 27 + 33 + 38 = - $2

at r = 8%

-100/(1+.08) + 30/(1+.08)1 + 40/(1+.08)2 + 50/(1+.08)3

-100 + 28 + 34 + 40 = + $2

The internal rate of return is 9%

EDS 2004/CI-28

Here is the calculation of the internal rate of return (IRR) for this example.

28

Project Ranking

Simple Payout

Sensitivity Analysis

EDS 2004/CI-29

Lets now move on and go over methods for ranking and prioritizing projects.

29

Simple Payout

Simple payout is the number of years it will take

to pay back an investment at the initial operating

gross margin. Simple payout takes no account of

inflation, nor of the time value of money.

Example:

Gross margin in year 1 = $700 MM/year

Total investment in project = $1,400 MM

Simple payout = $1,400/$700 = 2 years

EDS 2004/CI-30

Simple payout is (as it says) simple. It is widely used and quite a useful concept,

but beware of the pitfalls explained on the next few slides.

30

Payout Example #1

Project A

Cash Flow

-100

Year

50

50

50

and the IRR 23%

Payout = 2 years

EDS 2004/CI-31

This is example #1 of using simple payout. Do you agree with the NPV, IRR and

Payout figures worked out above? If yes, then turn over to example #2.

31

Payout Example #2

Project B

Cash Flow

-100

Year

100

and the IRR = 0%

Payout = 1 year

EDS 2004/CI-32

Here again, I suggest you check the NPV, IRR and Payout numbers worked out

above. The point is that the Payout in Example #2 is better (half as long) than in

Example #1, but everything else is obviously much worse.

32

Simple Payout

EDS 2004/CI-33

Must emphasize that the Simple Payout approach should not be used as a tool for

making decisions on a project. It is basically a very rough screening tool.

33

Project Ranking

Only 1 project can be accepted

Ranking several projects

EDS 2004/CI-34

It is important to decide up-front whether or not the projects you are evaluating are

mutually exclusive. It affects the correct choice of evaluation method.

A common example of mutually exclusive projects is when there are two or three

different options for revamping of a particular plant. Only one of the revamp

options can be implemented - a decision is required.

34

investors the largest return on their money

The project with the largest NPV using the minimum

rate of return

The project with the highest incremental IRR

higher than the minimum rate of return

Calculate the incremental IRR between projects; this

too must be higher than the minimum rate of return

The project which has the highest incremental IRR

will give the largest return on the investment

EDS 2004/CI-35

For mutually exclusive projects, beware of using IRR, unless you go through the

whole of the procedure above and calculate the incremental IRR between the

projects as well as all the other numbers as per normal.

35

Project A

Income, $

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

0

100

-100

50

0

50

60

0

60

Year

Project B

Income, $

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

0

200

-200

Year

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

70

0

70

3

370

0

370

3

EDS 2004/CI-36

projects should be implemented?

How should we evaluate this situation? This is not straight forward, but the test

tomorrow will include a question like this.

36

Net Present Value

Project A

at r = 15%

-100/(1+.15) + 50/(1+.15)1 + 60/(1+.15)2 +

70/(1+.15)3 -100 + 43 + 45 + 46 = + $34

Project B

at r = 15%

-200/(1+.15) + 370/(1+.15)3 -200 + 243 = + $43

Minimum rate of return is 15%

EDS 2004/CI-37

Please go through the calculations. Do you agree with the NPV numbers shown

above? If not, please ask for further explanation of this.

37

Internal Rate of Return

Project A

at r = 30%

-100/(1+.30) + 50/(1+.30)1 + 60/(1+.30)2 + 70/(1+.30)3

-100 + 38 + 36 + 32 = + $6

at r = 35%

-100/(1+.35) + 50/(1+.35)1 + 60/(1+.35)2 + 70/(1+.35)3

-100 + 37 + 33 + 28 = - $2

at r = 33%

-100/(1+.33) + 50/(1+.33)1 + 60/(1+.33)2 + 70/(1+.33)3

-100 + 38 + 34 + 30 = + $2

EDS 2004/CI-38

Again, please go through the calculations. Find the right IRR number for project A

- it has to be 34% - agreed?

38

Internal Rate of Return

Project B

at r = 20%

-200/(1+.20) + 370/(1+.20)3 -200 + 214 = + $14

at r = 25%

-200/(1+.25) + 370/(1+.25)3 -200 + 189 = - $11

at r = 23%

-200/(1+.23) + 370/(1+.23)3 -200 + 199 = - $1

EDS 2004/CI-39

39

Project B

Cash Flow of B

-200

Year

50

-50

60

-60

Project A

Cash Flow of A

Cash Flow B-A

Year

-100

-100

370

70

300

3

EDS 2004/CI-40

Again, please go carefully through the calculation. Check that you agree with all of

the cash flows ( + & - ) shown for project B minus project A.

40

Incremental Rate of Return

Project B - Project A

at r = 15%

-100/(1+.15) - 50/(1+.15)1 - 60/(1+.15)2 + 300/(1+.15)3

-100 - 43 - 45 + 197 = + $9

at r = 20%

-100/(1+.20) - 50/(1+.20)1 - 60/(1+.20)2 + 300/(1+.20)3

-100 - 42 - 42 + 174 = - $10

Therefore, the incremental rate of return is approximately

17%, which is above our minimum rate of return. Project B

is the project that will give the highest return on our money.

EDS 2004/CI-41

And finally, one last IRR calculation and the end result is that project B is better

than project A - just like the NPV figures showed us in Slide 37.

The reason for all this is that many people look almost solely at IRR and project A

has the higher IRR but project B is definitely better.

If you are a little confused at this point, go back to Slide 35 and work through the

numbers carefully one more time. It will then become much clearer.

The next slide provides a summary of this project comparison.

41

Project Comparison

Year

Project

A

Project

B

Project

B-A

0

1

2

3

-100

50

60

70

-200

0

0

370

-100

-50

-60

300

80

35

34%

170

43

23%

90

8

17%

Best

IRR

Best

NPV

Net Income

NPV @ 15%

IRR

Winner

is B

EDS 2004/CI-42

When evaluating mutually exclusive projects, you can subtract the cash flows of

project A from those of project B. If the NPV of B minus A is positive, then project

B is the winner. If it is negative, then go with project A.

In summary, always select the project with the higher or highest NPV.

42

Sensitivity Analysis

Year

0

1

2

3

Net Income

NPV @ 15%

IRR

Project

A

-100

50

60

70

Project

B

-200

0

0

370

Project

B-A

-100

-50

-60

300

80

35

34%

170

43

23%

90

8

17%

NPV

62.5

47.6

34.9

23.8

14.2

5.8

Sensitivity Analysis

NPV

119.6

78.0

43.3

14.1

-10.6

-31.6

NPV

57.1

30.3

8.4

-9.7

-24.8

-37.4

Discount Rate

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

EDS 2004/CI-43

This is an example of a sensitivity analysis (that looks at the effect of the discount

rate on NPV). The next slide is a graphical plot of these numbers.

43

Sensitivity Analysis

(continued)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

5%

10%

Project A

15%

20%

Project B

25%

30%

Project B-A

EDS 2004/CI-44

Graphically, you can see the range on the x-axis of the cost of capital (up to about

17%) where selecting Project B (the red line) instead of Project A (the blue line)

creates the higher NPV and is, therefore, the better choice.

44

by economic return to give higher priority to

the projects with highest return on investment

Present Value Ratio = NPV / PWNC

PWNC = Present Worth Net Cost

(calculated at the minimum rate of return)

EDS 2004/CI-45

The

other situation is when we have a whole set of completely independent projects

.

from which to select and there is enough money to invest in several of them.

Which projects represent the best use of our money available for investment?

45

PWNC = j / (1 + i) j

where 0 < j < n

j

E

I

n

=

=

=

=

Expenditure in time period j

Interest rate ( = cost of capital)

Number of time periods, years

EDS 2004/CI-46

The formula only covers the period of time during which expenditure (E) is

incurred. It works out the Present Worth of the expenditure or Net Cost

required for each of the possible projects.

46

Income, $

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

0

-100

-100

Year

50

-100

-50

110

0

110

120

0

120

3

PWNC = $143

EDS 2004/CI-47

Here is an example of calculating the Present Worth Net Cost. Look at the

Cash Flow figures in red above and discount only these two negative numbers

.back to the initial time period to calculate the Present Worth Net Cost.

47

Income, $

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

0

-100

-100

Year

50

-100

-50

110

0

110

120

0

120

NPV = -100 - 43 + 83 + 79

NPV = + $19

EDS 2004/CI-48

48

Income, $

- Cost, $

Cash Flow

0

-100

-100

Year

50

-100

-50

1

110

0

110

120

0

120

Present Value Ratio = Net Present Value / Present Worth Net Cost

Present Value Ratio = 19 / 143 = 0.13

EDS 2004/CI-49

And now the Present Value (PV) Ratio can be calculated as shown above.

49

by their present value ratio

Project

Present

Value Ratio

Rank

A

B

C

D

0.13

1.21

0.37

0.04

3

1

2

4

EDS 2004/CI-50

This is an example of ranking projects based on PV ratio analysis. The higher the

PV ratio the better the project.

50

Project

G

Project

H

-2000

0

2000

5000

-2000

20000

-21000

0

-2000

0

1000

100000

5000

5000

-3000

99000

NPV @ 15%

IRR

2,913

68.2%

2,800

60.1%

(488)

19.2%

64,508

273%

Payout, years

PV ratio

2

1.46

2

1.40

0.1

-0.03

3

>32

Project

E

Project

F

0

1

2

3

-2000

1000

1000

5000

Net Income

Year

EDS 2004/CI-51

There are many interesting points to think about if you go through the example

above comparing projects E, F, G, and H. Simple payout gives a completely wrong

set of answers, whereas, the PV ratio method works perfectly.

51

EDS 2004/CI-52

The final section of this session is intended to answer the question - Where do all

the cash flow numbers come from? and to lead into a real-life 1999 example of a

residue upgrading refinery project evaluation for you to work on.

52

Net Income or Gross Margin

- Expenses

- Taxes

Costs

- Interest

- Capital charges

EDS 2004/CI-53

This definition is critically important. All of the costs must be brought into the

calculation and deducted from the revenue, income, or receipts.

53

$MM(U.S.)

Year

Net Cash Flow

Cum. Cash Flow

0

(350)

(350)

Economic Evaluation:

Net Present Value

Interest rate, i

NPV at i, $MM

Simple Payout

1

(500)

(850)

2

(79)

(929)

3

365

(564)

4

378

(185)

5

396

211

6

367

578

7

8

9

10

1

381

397

367

383

479

959 1,356 1,723 2,106 2,585

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1,604

968

542

250

45

(102)

(209)

26%

4.5 years

EDS 2004/CI-54

Please also refer to the hand-out showing the calculation of the Net Cash Flow

numbers summarized above.

54

= NPV (interest rate, cash flow range)

+ cash flow in year 0

Notes: do not discount the cash flow for year 0

cash flow range is for years 1 to n

= IRR (cash flow range, guess of IRR)

Note: cash flow range is for years 0 to n

EDS 2004/CI-55

I suggest you try using these functions the next time you are in Excel.

55

= @ NPV (i, range) + cash flow in year 0

where i = the minimum rate of return and

range = the cash flows in years 1 to n

= @ IRR (i, range)

where i = a starting guess for the IRR and

range = the cash flows in years 0 to n

EDS 2004/CI-56

Does anybody still use Lotus? Well just in case theres someone back there!

56

Period of 1 year

Investment of $125,000

50% chance of success

Investment of $1,000,000

Annual cash flow of $250,000

or only $75,000 if the test fails

20 year project life

Use 25% discount factor

EDS 2004/CI-57

57

NPV Analysis

Cash Flows, $000

Year 0 -125

Year 1 50% of -1000

Year 2 50% of 250

Year 3 50% of 250

and 50% of 0

and 50% of 0

and 50% of 0

and 50% of 0

Expected

- 125

- 500

125

125

125

NPV = -129.6

EDS 2004/CI-58

The approach should be to first of all work out the expected cash flow in each

period of time. Then calculate the NPV using an appropriate cost of capital in view

of the risk involved. However, the next slide shows a different approach to this

problem.

58

Invest 1,000 in

Full Scale Plant

Success

(50%)

Test

(Invest 125)

Dont Invest

t = 20

t=1

NPV = 565

Stop NPV = 0

Invest 1,000 in

Full Scale Plant

t = 20

Failure

(50%)

t=1

NPV = - 531

Dont Test

Stop

Dont Invest

Stop NPV = 0

EDS 2004/CI-59

The right way to analyze the problem is through a decision tree analysis. The key

difference now is that after the test marketing in year 1, there will be much less risk

involved and a lower rate of return would then be acceptable.

59

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