2.

Every year, a couple of weeks before the Christmas holidays, people start looking for a nic
a.) The major of the town where the man lives, wants to put a big Christmas tree on the main
Mu
Variance sigma 2
H~ N(193,34)

193 cm
34 cm 2

Standard Deviation Sigma

Mu
X
P(Z>205)

5.83095189
193
205
1-P(Z<=205)

Z
Z
P(Z>205)

2.05798302
0.9803 (normal distribution table for Z=2.05)
0.0197

1.97%

b.) The man also sell his trees to local shop, they want to use them as decoration and are mo
P(H<=h)
P(Z<=(h-193)/5.83)
h

0.2
0.2 (-.85 in normal distribution)
188.0445

1. Electrical Generator
A Certain company produces electrical generator producing a mean power of 50 MW and a st
Assuming that the power generated follows a normal distribution, what percentage of genera
Mu
50
Sigma
3
X
54
X>54
1.33333333
From Normal distribution Table
P(X<-54)
90.82%
P(X>54)
9.18%
What is the percentage of generators exceeding 54.5 MW
X
54.5
Mu
50
sigma
3
Z
1.5
From Normal distribution Table for 1.5
P(X<=54.5)
93.32%

P(X>54.5)
6.68%
Find the standard deviation such that the percentage of generators above 54 MW is only 4%
Z
0.04
Z
0.96
Sigma
?
Mu
50
X
54
Z
(X-Mu)/Sigma
0.96 (54-50)/Sigma
Looking at Z value in the table it is 1.75
1.75 4/sigma
sigma
2.28571429
Another method
Let be the new standard deviation.
P ( X >54) = P (Z> (54-50/ ) ) = 0.04
54 - 50 / = 1.75
4 / = 1.75
= 2.28 Megawatts
The standard deviation must be reduced from 3 Megawatts to 2.28 Megawatts in order to ob

start looking for a nice Christmas tree. There is a man who grows those trees which have an average (
mas tree on the main square. The tree has to be at least 205 cm. How many % of the trees are expect

ecoration and are more interested in the small trees. They want the trees that belong to the 20% smal

er of 50 MW and a standard deviation of 3MW

percentage of generators will have a power output exceeding 54 Megawatts

ve 54 MW is only 4%

awatts in order to obtain only 4% of generators above 54 Megawatts.

ich have an average () height of 193 cm. The variance (^2) is 34 cm^2. We assume that the height
f the trees are expected to be larger than 205 cm?

elong to the 20% smallest ones. What is the maximum height of those trees?

ssume that the height variable (H) follows the normal distribution. H ~ N(193, 34)

1 You are planning a trip to Istanbul by train. Long distance trains are supposed to arri
What is the probability that your train does not arrive within the tolerated delay time
Mu
Variance sigm
Sigma
D
Z

8
16
4
10
0.5

0.6915 (normal distribution table)

0.3085
Probability that the train does not arrive within the tolerated delay time is 30.85%

2 In your holidays you are walking on the Grand bazaar in Istanbul to get a fake GucciAhmet, the bag trader, is willing to sell you one of his millions of bags.
Only for you he offers a special price. After bargaining you come up with an ideal pri
D ist the expectation life of Ahmets bags and D ~ N(2; 0.5)
The optimal life cycle of the bag is 1.5 years +/- 0.75 years.
How many bags dont comply with this specification?
Random variable D is expectation life
Mu
sigma
HL
LL
ZHL
ZLL

2
0.5
2.25
0.75
0.5
-2.5

0.6915
0.0062

0.3085
0.6853

0.3147

5.21%

3 A phone company brings a new smartphone on the market. After a few days, some o
What percentage of phones has to be replaced due to bending more than allowed?
X - N(0.8 , 0.01^2)
P(X > 0.5) = 1 P(X 0.5) =1 - P(Z (X-mu)/sigma) = 1 - P(Z (0.5-0.8)/0.1) = 1 -

99.865% of the phones have to be replaced

The phone company had to change their model to reduce the mistakes. For the next
What is the value of the mean in this new situation?

To achieve an replacement rate less than or equal to 5.05%, the following equation m
P(X larger 0.5) smaller/equal 0.0505

P(X larger 0.5) smaller/equal 0.0505 = 1 - P(Z smaller (X-mu)/sigma ) smaller/equal 0

1 - P(Z smaller (0.5-mu)/0.1) smaller/equal 0.0505
P(Z smaller (0.5-mu)/0.1) smaller/equal -0.9495
(0.5-mu)/0.1 smaller/equal 1.64
(0.5 - mu) smaller/equal 0.164
mu smaller/equal 0.336

So if the mean is mu=0.336 millimeter, less than 5% of the phones will bend more th

trains are supposed to arrive with less than 10 min delay (D) regarding the schedule. On average they
hin the tolerated delay time of 10 min?(See standard normal distribution table below)

ed delay time is 30.85%

stanbul to get a fake Gucci-Bag.

ions of bags.
u come up with an ideal price.

3.0

et. After a few days, some of the smartphones seem to bend. If a phone bends more than 0.05 cm (=0.

nding more than allowed?

- P(Z (0.5-0.8)/0.1) = 1 - P(Z -3) = 1 0.00135 = 0.99865

the mistakes. For the next generation of the phone they want to have a replacement rate of maximum

%, the following equation must be fulfilled.

mu)/sigma ) smaller/equal 0.0505

he phones will bend more than 0.5 millimeter

dule. On average they arrive with 8 min delay. The delay time follows a normal distribution where the v

ore than 0.05 cm (=0.5 millimeter), the company has to replace this phone. The bending of the phone

ment rate of maximum 5.05%. After some testing they found out that they reduced the mean, so that

istribution where the variance is 16 min^2.

bending of the phones is normally distributed with a mean of 0.8 millimeter and a standard deviation

ced the mean, so that this worked out.

a standard deviation of 0.1 millimeter.