PP 7767/09/2010(025354

)
MARKET DATELINE

马来西亚

RHB RESEARCH INSTITUTE SDN. BHD.

RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group

技术分析

Company No: 233327 -M

每日交投策略

2010 年 3 月 10 日

市场技术解读
如果它有能力守住 1,300 点以上,其后市展望将保持看俏…

图 1∶富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(日线图)

图 2∶富时大马综合指数(单日线图)

本地股市的交投指引∶

经过近日的多头图表突破后,富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)周二遭到主要蓝筹股的套利活动所拖累而暂时喘息收低。

此外,区域股市的交投情绪也在缺乏交投指引下处于低迷状态,促使投资者决定对近日飙升的大资本股项,如马银行
(Maybank)(-11 仙)和云顶(Genting)(-15 仙)进行套利。

全日而言,富时综指收市于 1,317.94 点,下挫了 6.28 点或 0.47%。

投资者昨日又再转旁观,导致交投量从周一的 11 亿 6 千万股减少至 7 亿 9 千 800 万股。令人失望的是,下跌股也以 455
只对 253 只的比率超越上升股。

另外,其它亚洲股市也几乎以平盘挂收。恒生指数微起 0.05%,而日经 225 指数则微挫 0.17%。

技术解读∶

随着空方重掌控制权,富时综指全日都陷困于持续性的套利活动中。

结果,该指数形成一根“利淡孕线型态”(negative harami),显示近日多头动力已缓和下来。

再加上短期动力指标起落参半,该主要指数今日可能会延伸昨日的跌势。

不过,根据近日突破 1,300 点心理大关的多头技术突破看来,我们还是继续看俏富时综指的短、中期后市展望。

因此,我们认为,市场只会出现短暂性的回调走势而已,之后趁低吸购活动便会重现。

一旦恢复多头买盘动力,这将会带动该指数上挑位于 1,354.79 点的上档技术缺口。

在下跌方面,我们预测 1,300 点心理关口将有能力制止任何套利压力。

Page 1 of 6

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)

2010 年 3 月 10 日

每日交投策略∶

与其往向位于 1,354.79 点的上档技术缺口前进,富时综指昨日却在强大套利压力下进行喘息。

虽然根据技术图表所呈现的短期弱势看来,卖压今日料将会延续,而该指数也可能会往下填补位于 1,300.74 点至
1,312.18 点之间区域的技术缺口。

不过,1,300 点心理关口应有能力制止跌势。

只要它能够稳守在 1,300 点关口以上,那么我们将继续看俏富时综指的短、中期的技术展望。

尽管当前市场交投情绪料将会在未来数日稍微冷却,而交投量也同样会放缓,但是一旦该指数有能力在 1,300 点筑起一道基
础,届时趁低吸购活动将会重新涌现。

表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品

表 1 ∶每日统计
股市摘要
上升股
下跌股
平盘
无交易
市场资本
总成交量
(百万股)
总成交值
(百万令吉)
外汇
令吉兑美元

3月
3日

3月
4日

3月
5日

3月
8日

3月
9日

294
402
270
370

281
385
282
388

547
194
236
359

583
194
256
304

253
455
258
375

864

727

942

1,161

798

1,511

1,268

1,564

2,259

1,453

3.3725

3.3710

3.3620

3.3380

3.3410

资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg)

本地主要指数
富时大马综合指数
富时大马 100 指数
富时大马创业板
各大海外指数
道琼斯工商指数
纳斯达克指数
标准与普尔 500
伦敦金融时报指数
恒生指数
雅加达综合指数
东京日经 225 指数
首尔综合指数
上海综合指数
曼谷综合指数
富时新加坡海峡时报指

台湾加权指数
印度 Sensex 指数
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元)
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉)
美国利率
隔夜联邦基金利率
下个联邦公开市场操作
委员会(FOMC)会议

Page 2 of 6

变动
(点)

收盘

变动
(%)

1,317.94
8,619.92
4,277.31

-6.28
-39.45
-33.91

-0.5
-0.5
-0.8

10,564.38
2,340.68
1,140.45
5,602.30

11.86
8.47
1.95
-4.42

0.1
0.4
0.2
-0.1

21,207.55
2,657.17
10,567.65

10.68
30.72
-18.27

0.1
1.2
-0.2

1,660.83
3,069.14
718.77

0.79
15.91
-1.52

0.0
0.5
-0.2

2,839.54
7,770.59
17,052.54

4.97
8.32
-50.06

0.2
0.1
-0.3

81.49

-0.38

-0.5

2,650.00

-59.00

-2.2

目前
0-0.25%

最新
无变动
2010 年 3 月 16 日

10 年 1 月
26 日-27 日

2010 年 3 月 10 日

图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)

图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图)

技术解读∶

在缺乏来自海外股市的明确交投指引下,本地期货市场在经过近日的凌厉涨势后便于周二往下收低。

吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)面对显著的回调,并一度下滑 7.5 点至 1,316.00 点低点。不过,它临尾成功反弹。

这使到它收窄早盘的跌势,并托高 FKLI 的 3 月份期约从低点回扬。闭市时,它微挫 2.50 点或 0.19% 至 1,321.00 点。

可是,由于图表出现一根阴烛,这显示近期回调的可能性还是存在的。

再加上起落参半的短期动力解读,该指数可能会向下趋低至位于 1,305 点至 1,311 点之间的下档技术缺口。

尽管如此,我们深信,近日冲破 1,300 点心理大关的多头突破走势将能够维护当前的交投士气。

事实上,一旦 FKLI 填补位于 1,300 点心理扶持点的低档技术缺口,我们预计买盘动力将会重现。

这也意味着处于 1,348 点的上档技术缺口还是可望被挑战。

每日交投策略∶

尽管我们不排除市场可能会小幅回调至位于 1,305 点至 1,311 点之间的低档缺口和 1,300 点关口,但是我们依然看好
FKLI 的整体技术展望。

当期指再次逼近 1,300 点扶持线时,交易员可再度准备“作多”。

今日,其交投波幅料将落在 1,311 点至 1,326 点之间。

表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份)
开盘
最高
合约
1324.50
1325.00
10 年 3 月
1321.00
1321.00
10 年 4 月
1317.00
1317.00
10 年 6 月
1313.00
1313.00
10 年 9 月

最低

收盘

变动
(点)

结算

成交量

未平仓宗数

1316.00
1313.00
1310.00
1310.00

1321.00
1318.50
1315.50
1312.00

-2.50
-3.00
-2.50
-5.50

1321.00
1318.50
1316.00
1315.00

5146
369
70
32

17214
581
597
183

资料来源∶大马交易所( Bursa Malaysia)

Page 3 of 6

2010 年 3 月 10 日

图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)

图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图)

美国股市的交投指引∶

在通讯股和金融股带头上涨下,华尔街股市周二在 2009 年熊市谷底的周年纪念日稍微收高。

随 着 思 科 系 统 ( Cisco Systems ) 推 出 高 容 量 路 由 器 ( router ) , 通 讯 股 包 括 AT&T ( +1.1% ) 和 Verizon
Communications(+0.9%)纷纷攀升。

此外,备受市场瞩目的美国国际集团(AIG)和花旗集团(Citigroup)也推动金融股走高。AIG 在市场推测该公司将会脱
售更多资产而剧升 12.6%,至于后者则因市场传出美国政府正在洽商脱售它在该银行多达 27% 的股权而劲扬 7.3%。

受到美元走强的拖累,美国轻质原油期货的 4 月份期约从近日创下 8 周高点转头回退。它小跌 0.38 美元或 0.5% 至每桶
81.49 美元,但却比 80.16 美元低点来得高。

技术解读∶
道琼斯工商指数 (Dow Jones Industrial Average 或 DJIA)

在市场临尾出现套利活动下,美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)也从 10,612.60 点高点回软以收窄涨势,收盘时,它只起
11.86 点或 0.11% 至 10,564.38 点。

随着它划出一根“流星线”(shooting star),加上短期动力指标也转为起落参半,因此它回退的风险已升高。

我们认为,除非它有能力超越 10,612.60 点并创下新高,否则它应会在来日往下走低。不过,我们依旧看好 21 日移动平均
线(即 10,316 点)将会是一道强稳的扶持线。

下一道阻力关口仍处于 1 月的 10,729.89 点高点,接下来则是 10,850 点关口。

纳斯达克指数 (Nasdaq Composite 或 Nasdaq)

纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)一连第 4 日扩大涨势,涨了 8.47 点或 0.36%,报 2,340.68 点。

通过取得第 4 根阳烛下,这已确认它近来突围 2,330 点强大阻力线的多头技术突破走势。

这也将会为该指数在近期扩大涨势至下一道位于 2,470 点的阻力水平铺路。当前扶持水平则是处于 2,293.16 点的技术缺
口。

Page 4 of 6

2010 年 3 月 10 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶辉百集团( Faber)(日线图)

辉百集团

图 8∶辉百集团(单日线图)

Faber Group (1368)

料将在近日挺向 2.10 令吉和 2.29 令吉阻力水平前进…

2009 年 11 月初,辉百集团的股价便发动一波出乎意料凌厉的涨势。该股大力突破 1.25 令吉强力阻力水平,并进一步破除
1.40 令吉关口。

在获得持续性的改进买盘动力下,该股在 2009 年 12 月往上冲高,并在 2010 年 1 月取下 1.65 令吉大关。

惟在同一个月触顶于 1.81 令吉高峰后,该股便形成一根“流星线”,并步入整盘阶段。

该股在接近 1.54 令吉至 1.65 令吉之间区域,即 10 日和 40 日移动平均线筑起一道基础,并在 3 月初一举冲破 1.65 令吉
阻力水平。

在买盘动力加强下,该股最近成功扫除长达 2 年半的 1.86 令吉高点和 1.85 令吉阻力水平,标志着另一个重要的技术突破
进展。

昨日,它以一根巨大的“看涨抱线型态”(bullish engulfing)收高于 1.85 令吉阻力以上,这显示多头动力可能会在近日
加剧。

我们认为,它已准备就绪上挑位于 2.10 令吉的下一道技术水平,之后便会放眼挑战它在 1997 年 7 月所失去的 2.29 令吉
阻力水平。

技术解读∶

10 日移动平均线(10-day SMA):

RM1.803

40 日移动平均线(40-day SMA):

RM1.672

支撑水平:

IS = RM1.85

S1 = RM1.65

阻力水平:

IR = RM2.10

R1 = RM2.29

Page 5 of 6

S2 = RM1.54

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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