Author(s): M. G. H. BELL
Source: Transportation Science, Vol. 17, No. 2 (May 1983), pp. 198217
Published by: INFORMS
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25768090
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College
London,
London
of uniform scaling to
ample to be invariant to the application
is out
the prior estimates. A Newton model fitting procedure
are
volumes
lined. In reality, measurements
link
of
traffic
random variables and the proportionate
links
usage of
by the
zone
not
each
is
known
with
certainty. An
traffic for
pair
the
variances
and
covariances
is
derived
of the
expression
for
terms
the
values
in
the
variances
and
logarithms of
fitted
of
link
the
covariances
the
measured
volumes,
propor
of
taking
tionate usage of links as given. The expression permits
the
calculation
of asymmetric confidence intervals for the elements
of the fitted origindestination matrix.
INTRODUCTION
198
Science
Transportation
Vol. 17,No. 2,May 1983
00411655/83/17020198 $01.25
1983 Operations Research Society ofAmerica
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0d matrix
estimation
from
traffic
counts
199
it is not necessary
(as it is,
used, very little labor is required. Moreover,
for example, in the case of a roadside interview) to stop vehicles, so the
associated risk of causing a disruption to traffic (possibly also resulting in
a modification of its distribution) is avoided.
to the inference of an OD matrix from meas
Some early approaches
urements of link traffic volumes have been reviewed by Willumsen.[1]
and Nguyen[2] have described an approach based on equilib
Jornsten
rium traffic assignment which subsequently formed the basis of a program
of Transport.[3]
Van Zuylen and
developed by the U.S. Department
have developed closely related models for the estimation
Willumsen[4]
of an OD matrix, Van Zuylen using information minimization
and
The associated problem of inferring
Willumsen
entropy maximization.
of
turning movements within an isolated junction given measurements
traffic volumes on the approach roads has also received attention (Beil,[5]
et al.[7]). However,
this problem is
Hauer
Keller,[6]
an
is it generally
since
for
isolated
different
junction
only
qualitatively
true that flows entering and leaving the network can be measured
by
traffic counts.
A further model for the inference of an OD matrix from link traffic
in order to overcome
volumes, originally suggested by Van Zuylen[8]
anomalies encountered with earlier models/1'4'9] is given a probabilistic
Cremer
and
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200
/ m. g. h. bell
connectors. Nodes which are not connected in this way to zone centroids
are referred to as intermediate nodes. The
level of resolution of the
representation of the transport network can be adjusted to fit the avail
at
able data. For example, when information about turning movements
can each be represented by a link
junctions is available, these movements
2. LINEAR DEPENDENCY
IN COMPLEX NETWORKS
In this
paper,
steady state traffic flows are considered,
effectively
the
time
dimension from the problem. By observing the prop
removing
agation over the network of fluctuations in the levels of link flows, it is
possible tomake additional inferences about the nature of the distribution
of traffic. Such inferences can be used to further constrain the set of
feasible OD matrices.
For example, Cremer and Keller[6] suggest a
method for estimating turning movements
at an intersection by correlat
ing variations in the flow of traffic on the links into and out of it,making
allowance for the time required for vehicles to pass between entrance and
exit points ofmeasurement.
It is assumed here that Kirchoff's law applies within the network. In
this context, Kirchoff's law asserts that traffic does not appear or disap
law
pear at nodes or in links. Under steady state conditions Kirchoff's
implies that the total flow into a link or node is equal to the total flow
out. These conservation relationships reduce the degrees of freedom for
link volumes, since some are linearly dependent on others.
Kirchoff s law has implications at two levels (see Willumsen[11]).
At
the level of the node, conservation requires that there be one linearly
link volume for each intermediate node. At a higher level,
dependent
conservation of flows on routes may lead to additional linear dependen
cies. For example, if two directed links lie on one and only one route,
then Kirchoff's law requires that the flow on each be equal, even though
the two links may not be connected to a common intermediate node.
Define
=
tj the quantity of traffic between a pair of zones designated by j
(there being J zone pairs)
Vi= the volume of traffic on measured
link i (there being Jmeasured
links); it is not assumed that all links in the network are measured
= the
Pij
proportion of the traffic between zone pair j that uses meas
ured link i.
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od matrix
Using
from
estimation
traffic
counts
201
vT=
...,tj]
[vu
Pn,
?the available
network
*,P\j
:
_Piu
of simultaneous
Vi]
:
,Pu
equations
v = Et (1)
The number of linearly independent link volumes is identically equal to
the rank ofmatrix E
It is assumed throughout this paper that the matrix of route assignment
proportions, ?, is known. In practice, this may have to be obtained by
making some assumption about route choice behavior. It should be noted,
however, that it is not in general sufficient to assume that the network is
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202
m. g. h. bell
ortho
for doing this, of which two (GramSchmidt
numerical methods
elimination) are described here.
gonalization and Gaussian
for the sequential search
The use of GramSchmidt
orthogonalization
for linear dependency among the rows ofmatrix P has been independently
and Branston.[13]
suggested by the author and Van Zuylen
Let pi be the ith row of P. On the rth step of the procedure
gr=Pr~
??l
r = 2, (2)
(giTPr)gi/(giTgi),
where gi is equal to pi. Vectors gr and gs (r^ s) are orthogonal (i.e. g?gs
=
2 can be written as
be equal to {giTpr)/\giTgi). Equation
0). Let
gr=Pr~
JjZl
airgi
Pr
?*=1
T =
a'irPi,
2,
,U
(3)
where alr are new coefficients formed from ajr (j' < r). Ifgr = 0, then the
rth row of matrix P is a linear combination of the preceding rows (with
coefficients
, ari,r)
a[r,
and
vr = SPi1 a'irVi.
In fact, gr
0 is both a necessary
and
(4)
sufficient condition
for linear
dependency.
In the case of Gaussian
elimination, matrix P is reduced by the
successive elimination of the variables in (1) to a new matrix with zeros
below the principal diagonal. If the rth row of this new matrix contains
only zeros then the corresponding row ofmatrix P is linearly dependent
on the preceding rows. As before, the reduction of a row to zero elements
only is both a necessary and sufficient condition for linear dependency.
Further
information about
and Gaussian
the GramSchmidt
process
orthogonalization
be found in Hadley[12] or Isaacson
and
elimination may
Keller.[14]
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rows. Moreover,
pr =^l\iPj
where Ai,
the linear
203
combinations
to
(5)
to zero, then
(6)
Pr"PT=%=l\ipTPT
(bypostmultiplying
byPT). Thus
Zr=
hSi (7)
(ii) Sufficiency.If
Sr= ??l\i3i
where, as before, Ai,
(8)
P?PT
(9)
Z=l\ipTPT
or
u'P'^fr
where
(10)
(11)
u=pr^Zl\iPi.
pr = 2d1 ^Pi
(12)
that
Y(y)
PV(t)PT (13)
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204
M. G. H. BELL
a2, then
Thus
Vi and vj is equal
between
to o2pTpj, or alternatively
Define
additional
formulation
notation
=
tj a prior estimate of tj
= the
qj
probability that a trip is between
occurs.
Also
let
...,?,]
F=[fi,
fi, ...,ln^]
,?/]On
?T=
,ln?/]
,&]Pnfi,
=[L
ki,
minimization
problem
Mmtf(t)
yield a family ofmodels,
Willumsen,[4] Willumsen
=
subject to v Pt
(15)
here.
mZjtAMtj/tj)!).
The
(16)
resulting model
tj^tjUAxW,
7 = 1,
(17)
has one parameter, x?> for each link volume which scales the prior
estimate up or down so that the measured
link volumes are reproduced.
Willumsen
and Van VlietE9] suggest that (16) constitutes an appropriate
measure
of the difference between t and t. If a constant term,
?y ij, is
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estimation
od matrix
from
counts
traffic
205
measurements
Fitted values
of traffic volumes.
t formodel (17) may be obtained by solving the equations
i= l,...,/
(18)
((2y^)Vn>(/!)n>(^ (19)
and
d In xl/dx to be equal
(dF(t)/dtk)
The
maximization
following Lagrangian
ln(?,
of F(t)
tj)
tj Inqj.
(20)
to In x, we obtain

with
In tk+
In qky
respect
k=
1,
to relationship
. .,J.
(21)
(1) yields
the
conditions
for
equation
=
L(t, X) F(t) +XT(v Pt) (22)
where X is a vector of Lagrange multipliers.
a maximum are
The
necessary
=
= (23)
dL/dt (dF(t)/dt) XTP 0T
,dL/dtj] and dF/dt is similarly
dL/dt is the row vector [dL/dti,
is achieved when
defined. The following result confirms that a maximum
(23) is satisfied.
where
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206
m. g. h. bell
2. The Hessian
(subject to the constraint
the matrix
for F(t), namely
[d2F/dtidtj],
v = Pt) negative definite for strictly positive
Result
The Hessian
Proof
of the objective
if i=j
otherwis
& otherwise.
[
The
form
quadratic
Jjj dtddF/dtidtj)dtj
=
=
=
Let
dtj
2? dU 1j (d2F/dtidtj)
tk) (dti/U))
L dft((2y
(24)
?*02/S*fcL(*i2A)
=
=
<j>i dti/lk dtk and ft
definiteness, we require
4. For negative
(25)
/(?=2i*d(Wft))<0.
To
is
t
equation
(26)
where
mum
co is a Lagrange
The
multiplier.
for a maxi
conditions
necessary
are
dL/ddi
(<t>i2/62)w
= 0
for all i
=
=
implying that <f>i \/a>ft,and therefore that w
Furthermore,
since ft >
1, since
0 and
if/=j
df/ddi^,
the Hessian
a maximum
(27)
otherwise
=
dti/lkdtk
tk
forall /. (28)
the maximum
value for f(6) is zero. By differentiating the
Moreover,
constraint equations, we obtain the relationship dv = Pdt = 0. Thus, at
the maximum of f(6), t = m dt (where 7r 0 is a constant of proportion
= 0. This violates the
0.
ality) and therefore Pt
constraints, since v
Hence f(0) < 0 and consequently the Hessian forF(t)
is negative definite.
ln(ZJtj) +
]nqkli\iPik,
k=
1,
...
,J
(29)
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from
estimation
od matrix
traffic
counts
207
and thus
tk=
k=
2< hp*),
(2y tj)qkexp(
1,
. ,J.
(30)
? =
ik/ljij,
here
that
(31)
1,...,J.
This
tk= rtkexp(
k=
Xipik),
,J
1,
(32)
where
T= Zjtj/Zjtj.
If
(33)
becomes
Xi is equal
k=
tk= rtkUi(xi)Pik,
,J.
1,
(34)
This
to In t, the model
tk=
There
are now / +
FITTING
as expressed
tkexp(\p 2* XiPik),
1 parameters
(\p,Ai,
1,
,J.
(35)
, A/) to be determined
by J
equations
Vi= ZjPijtj
lLjPijije*Vty
=
2* hkPkj), i
1,
,/.
(36)
is equal to the
the number of linearly independent equations
However,
rank of matrix P which is in turn equal to the number of linearly
link volumes. Let L be the number of linearly
independent measured
link volumes.
independent measured
link
loss of generality, let us suppose that the firstL measured
Without
volumes are linearly independent. Hence
Vi= IjPijtj,
/=1,
...,L
(37)
Zj ij
=
=
= r1
Ij tj exp(^) Ij tj lj tjexv( It XiPij)
is therefore required
solution.
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(38)
208
M. G. H. BELL
Define
further notation
...,
vu
yT=[%jij,
(39)
vL]
and
Pll,
,PlJ
R =
(40)
Pli,
The L +
1 constraint equations
,Plj
= Rt.
(41)
Ai,
...
(42)
AL]
and
i,
2
(43)
Pli,
thus enabling
the model
,Plj
to be written as
t= D exp(2TM)
where D
(44)
to each element
of STy.
(45)
There are a number of numerical solution procedures that may be used
to derive values for the parameters,
so that the model estimates for y
agree with predetermined values, y*. One such is the Newton procedure
tf
<#?+!)
=
_
(y<">)l(y?>
y*)
tf(n)
(46)
where
y<?>
Rt^
exp^V*"')
(47)
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od matrix
estimation
from traffic
counts
209
and
,
^,<nl/^Ki
ldyi<n,/aMi<n),
(48)
(superscript n denotes
[dy^/d^,
,dytU/diitl^
2*(5yi(",/a^<"))(^*(n)/W">)
rexp^^)^/^,^"'
= ^
if j =
if i>
if i >
exp(/ii<n))i;^,1
=
vt\
2*Pii,ktkM
. Pii,kPj~i,ktkM
1 and; >
l andy =
i and7 >
1
1
1
Thus
0
 exp(/il(n))l;i,n),
vi
iLkPiktk
, expfju^W"1
>?fcPlkPLktk
(n)
(49)
VLin)\lkPLkPlktkin\
0
...
,lkPlktk{n)
jexp(/x1(n))i;(n)T
;(n)pD(n)pT
The following two results prove that matrix J(n) is nonsingular and that
In order for the Newton procedure to
therefore J{n)~l is determinate.
a
of it, it is sufficient that
in
to
the
solution
converge
neighborhood
fx*
and Rheinboldt[17]).
J(n) be continuous and nonsingular (see Ortega
Result
is positive
prior estimates
Proof
positive
It can be verified from (44) that given positive t the model yields
t.Thus D(n\ which is equal to diag(?(n), ..., tjn)),
fitted values
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210
m. g. h. bell
Result
4. The Jacobian
J{n\ given
by (49), is nonsingular.
where
the elements
PD(n)pT
since exp(?
[iin)) >
(5i)
=?(4
PD(n)PTi;
Hence,
(50)
exp(/ii(n))i;(n)T
?(n)
?TPDin)PT?=
?Tvin)
= 0
(52)
is positive definite
(Result 3).
Results
3 and 4 imply that the number of zone pairs, J, should be
greater than or equal to L, the number of rows of matrix P. If not, the
number of columns ofP must be less than L implying that the rank ofP,
T
and therefore PD {n)PT, is less than L. Since PD {n)P is no longer positive
definite, J(n) is no longer necessarily nonsingular.
5. APPROXIMATE
VARIANCES
AND COVARIANCES
VALUES
important
consideration for the practitioner is the robustness of the
fitted values, t (" refers to estimated quantities), given that the measure
ments for y are random variables and that the set of assignment propor
to the
tions, P, are not known with certainty. As a first approximation
is
it
assumed
here
that
the
are
known
problem,
assignment proportions
with certainty. An expression is derived for the variances and covariances
of the logs of the fitted values, , in terms of the variances and covariances
An
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estimation
od matrix
for the mean measurments
from
traffic
v
counts
211
(* refers to observed
values).
it
t,because
rather than
errors for ?
for t which
on a truncated Taylor
Let E{x)
7],where E{x)
denotes
series approximation.
3). (53)
the expectation
of x, and letmatrix
Z=[df/dx]x^ (54)
<=*
and the
be the Jacobian of the transformation. Hence E{f(x)}
f(jj)
matrix for f(x) is given by the following approxima
variancecovariance
tion
Y(f(x))
E{(f(x) f(v))(f(x)
?
E{Z(x
f(v))T)

rj)(x
rj)TZT)
(55)
ZV(x)ZT.
matrix
Two stages are required in order to obtain a variancecovariance
matrix fory*. First a variancecovariance
for I from a variancecovariance
matrix is
then from this a variancecovariance
matrix is obtained for
derived for . Since the first element of vector y*, equal to
tj, is
matrix for
invariant, the first row and column of the variancecovariance
*
y have zero elements only.
approximation
Using
(55)
V{y*)*JV(MT
where
equal
(56)
Y(&
Following
Equation
J~lViy*(dT)~l
52 when
J'Ky*)^1)7can be written as
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/x(n)is
(57)
212
m. g. h. bell
Thus
(59)
Hence
Y(l)
STV((i)S
(60)
^j'viynid'Ts.
Standard errors for ? can be obtained by taking the square root of the
of matrix V(?). Since maximum
elements on the principal diagonal
likelihood estimators are normally distributed for large samples (see, for
confidence intervals for ?may be obtained from
example, Edwards[18]),
traffic volumes. The traffic count variances for each link, and the covar
iances for each pair of links, can then be calculated.
The extent of the correlation between link volumes will depend on the
size of the chosen interval ofmeasurement.
Since trips are not instanta
neous, the correlations between link traffic volumes are in reality lagged.
It is therefore desirable to select as long an interval of measurement
as
so
as
to
minimize
the
of
the
possible
significance
lags.
It is assumed here that correlations between link volumes are instan
taneous. Let Xij be the count for the jth interval on link i expressed as a
deviation from the mean count for link i.
Define
0,
, Xm
X =
(61)
Xlu
Xln
V(y*)
Y(o
(l/N(Nl))(XXT).
links and N
(62)
srj'a/NiN
D)(xxT)(d~ys
is
as
(63)
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od matrix
estimation
from
traffic
zone
1. Example
Fig.
Link 
1
2
3
4
5
0
1110
0.7
0.3
0.3
213
of Assignment
AC AB
network.
TABLE
Matrix
counts
Proportions
Zone Pair
BC
10
0
1
0
0
1
0
CB
0
0
1
BACA
11
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
6. AN EXAMPLE
A computer
the methods
mean
values
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214
M. G. H. BELL
II
TABLE
Hypothetical
14
13
13 126
21 227
13
8
135 12
23
17
10
7
14
13
20
11
9
11
TABLE
Variances
Link
Values
Measurement
Link
1
Counts
and Covariances
Mean
21
19.2
19
20.8
10.8 6
13
13.0
15
Value
10.0
III
for Hypothetical
Link
Counts
1 35.0
2
7.0
14.0
3 1.2
7.9
4 8.3
3.3
9.7
6.3
5
3.0
1.8
8.0
3.5
5.0
2.5
?i
=
=
ju2 Xi
=
Jl'3
fa
?5
The fitted values
Origin
X'2
1.89
0.48
?1.17
=
A3
=
A4 0.73.
3.19
Estimate
AB
15.43
intervals are:
95% confidence
region
11.98 to 19.87
AC
2.06
1.13 to
BC
3.32
1.94 to
5.67
CB
3.20
2.24 to
4.59
CA
5.17
3.93 to
6.79
BA
10.72
3.75
7.37 to 15.58.
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are multiplied
215
=  0.41
Si
=
0.48
/x2
=  117
jia
fi4
ju5
=
=
3.19

0.73.
Parameter
Origin
Destination
trip occurs)
Estimate
15.43
AB
C
A
BC
CB
A
C
2.64
2.73
4.12
4.25
12.22
BA
and
their 95%
95% confidence
region
11.98 to 19.87
1.49 to
1.59 to
2.99 to
3.21 to
8.76
4.69
4.70
5.68
5.64
to 17.03
from A to B is determined by
Since (as Table I shows) the movement
the movement on link 3, the corresponding fitted value and its confidence
interval is insensitive to changes in the pattern of the prior estimates.
matrix for the logarithms of the fitted values,
The variancecovariance
obtained when the prior estimates are uniformly equal to one, is given in
Table IV. It is clear from (63) that this matrix is symmetric, so only the
lower triangular portion is given.
Since the movement fromA to B is equal to 1.43 times the flow on link
3 (see Table I), the variance of the corresponding fitted value should be
on link 3,
equal to 1.43 squared times the variance of the mean flow
an
for
variance
the
3.96.
However,
program supplies
approximate
namely
the logarithm of the fitted value
IV). Since the
(see Table
fitted
is
value
of
the
deviation of the logarithm
approximately
the coefficient of variation for the fitted value itself, the program
a variance approximately
equal to 4.05, which is of the correct
standard
equal to
indicates
order of
magnitude.
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216
m. g. h. bell
iv
table
and Covariances
Variances
of the Fitted
Values
Zone Pair
Zone Pair
AC AB
AB
BC
CB
BACA
0.017
AC
BC
CB
0.025
0.094
0.018
0.076
0.075
0.021
0.035
0.019
CA
0.014
0.016
0.018
BA
0.010
0.016
0.034
0.018
0.008
0.021
0.019
0.003
0.036
7. DISCUSSION
is developed
in this paper that yields the most probable set of
A model
OD movements
that are consistent with a set of link flows if the
probabilities obtained from the prior estimates are correct. In practice,
the prior estimates might be based on an old survey that may not
If this is so, or if there is no basis
correctly reflect current probabilities.
on which to obtain prior estimates (in which case a uniform value has to
be adopted), it seems unlikely that the model will yield the most probable
set of OD movements
consistent with link flows. As demonstrated
in
Section 6, at least some of the fitted values may be sensitive to changes
in the prior estimates.
for a set of links
In practice, traffic counts are likely to be available
which include some whose volumes are linearly dependent on the volumes
of the others within the set. When
inconsistency arises, it is possible to
remove it by adjusting the observations using a maximum
likelihood
criteria (see Van Zuylen and Willumsen[4]
and Van Zuylen and Bran
itwould
ston[13]), thus incorporating the additional information. However,
in principle be preferable to fit the model directly to the traffic counts.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The
author
Gallivan,
David
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