Why is there so much conflict in the “post-conflict” moment ?

(Cramer and Goodhand, 2002, Moxham, 2007) Conflict resurgence in Muslim Mindanao, Aceh, Timor-Leste in Southeast Asia , In the DRC , Nigeria, Uganda, etc. in Africa; and in parts of India and Pakistan (South Asia).
1

Rido Incidence, 1990-2004
(See Kamlian, 2007, Lingga 2007)

90 80

70 60
1990-1994 1995-1999

50 40
2000-2004

30 20 10 0

3

Intensification of conflict-related violence (UNDP, 2005), following the 1996 peace agreement

4

Mindanao and Aceh’s geographic and social exclusion from the gains of economic growth

FL, 2007
Infant Mortality Percentage of (per 000) Unemployed Aceh 55 years 26 % 42 infants 29 % Indonesia 67 years 17 % 35 infants 12.5 % ARMM 52 years 45 % 55 infants 56 % Philippines 71 years 36 % 49 infants 10 % Table 1 : Comparative human development indicators : Aceh and Muslim Mindanao, WB 2007, UNDP 2005 Province/Country ELB Poverty

5

Annual Change in Real GDP Philippines vs ARMM
20

15

10

5

ARMM

Philippines

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-5

-10

6

Manufacturing in ARMM

Puzzle : While GDP was falling during the war, tax revenues increased in the ARMM provinces (1997-1998,2001-2003)
1,200,000,000.00 60,000,000,000.00

1,000,000,000.00

50,000,000,000.00

800,000,000.00

40,000,000,000.00

600,000,000.00

30,000,000,000.00

Tax collections Nominal GDP

400,000,000.00

20,000,000,000.00

200,000,000.00

10,000,000,000.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

-

8

GCE (NSCB, 2008)

Expansion in the Shadow or Underground Economy of Muslim Mindanao (Lara 2007)
Traditional Sources
Smuggling of goods from Sabah etc. Trade in small arms and long weapons Unregistered transport of persons and goods Unregistered transfers of land Illegal logging

Non-Traditional Sources
Smuggling of goods from Hongkong, China, etc. Drug production, distribution, and export Illegal reproduction and sale of CDs, DVDs, etc. Extortionary ‘sale” of right of way privileges , illegal tollgates Kidnap for Ransom (KFR) activities Trade in armaments, explosives, and other munitions (especially before and after elections) Small scale illegal mining activities Carnapping and gun for hire Smuggling of oil and fuel Illegal and undocumented export of labor Forgery and sale of official documents, including certificates of live birth, police clearances, etc.

10

Some steps to take
• Distinguishing between “conflict onset” and “conflict duration” is crucial. This is critical for actions of the state, civil society and the international community to have the desired, strategic impact on prospects for peace. • Peacebuilding strategies must include an understanding of how local clan-related conflict dynamics interacts with armed rebellion.
• A closer exploration of the underground economy and the contestation for political influence that brings control of this economy is critical.

• It is important to harness a more interdisciplinary approach to move the peace process forward.